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Preventng economic and social crisis, THM.
This is one of the problems we had as remainers - the project in itself is flawed and that is obvious. We are watching this largely from the sidelines - interested observers - but were reliant on people seeing through that and focusing on the bespoke arrangement thst we ALREADY had.
We failed and lost ;/)
Ed the level of your compassion for the young and poor of the EZ is well documented
Preventing a crisis - are we now imagining that the € never happened ?!?
Greece was in a position in which a country would normally end up with a failed currency when it joined the EU. With all the misery that brings (see Germany early 20s). The Euro saved them from that.
Directly contributing to an economic and social crisis - is that enough for starters?
No, I want something that is more objective than "THM says so".
Or else, if there isn't anything more objective, I want you to admit that the "failure" of the euro is just in your head and not in the real world.
Just as an example, there were certainly those who argued strongly that Thatcherite monetary policy in the 80s contributed to an economic and social crisis in Scottish manufacturing (perhaps other parts of the UK, I wasn't there at the time). Incidentally, that was during a period where we had rather stronger political union than we do in the UK now.
I wish you knew where the smiley button was Ed. People might think that you are being serious there.
Captain - if you want to ignore the € crisis and pretend it's in my head, feel free
Here's what one of Scotlands favourite novel wining economic ally has to say
Designed to bring the European Union closer together, the euro has actually done the opposite: after nearly a decade without growth, unity has been replaced with dissent and enlargements with prospective exits. Joseph Stiglitz argues that Europe's stagnation and bleak outlook are a direct result of the fundamental flaws inherent in the euro project - economic integration outpacing political integration with a structure that promotes divergence rather than convergence. Money relentlessly leaves the weaker member states and goes to the strong, with debt accumulating in a few ill-favoured countries.
Probably only in his head too.
No, I certainly don't want to ignore it. I want you to define what you mean by it, and explain how you can distinguish it from any other crisis that we have observed.
The crisis needs no definition. It happened and can be objectively observed and measured
Ditto the design flaws in the € thst led directly to it. Stiglitz's book is not expensive
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Euro-its-Threat-Future-Europe/dp/0241258154
So, we have got to:
The Euro Zone is a failure, because
The Euro has failed, because
THM says so.
Good to have cleared that up.
Blimey you are a speed reader - it took me two days to read that book not three seconds
I bow to you better judgement and insight - can we still join the € or is I too late now? Sounds like a snorter...
He's given a ref. Bit much to expect him to post the entire text!
😀
THM - as I know you’re a charitable man help a poor engineer out. What in your words are those non-vague criteria?
I’m not being an arse about this, just interested.
PS - do you not sleep? I thought I posted on here to much.
The inability of the eurozone to match the recovery in the USA and UK has exposed its governing structures, institutions and policies as dysfunctional
That aged well
I have two long commutes - bit late today 😉
I have linked this for you before but for s start google optimum currency area theory and or Robert Mundell.
You will see that I am opening up a can of worms here because he has a theory - it has changed a bit since but anyway - and then he gets himself in a muddle with the Euro which is quite funny.
Hence I am exposing the fact that we have some subjectivity creeping in in the academic world !!!!
Life is never clear cut is it!!!
But it seems very clear-cut to you THM. Euro bad, everything else good. It smacks of a theory going in search of data. The euro is still being used daily by millions of people, and the eurozone economies seem to be doing pretty well overall compared to the UK right now. I'm well aware these things can change rapidly of course.
You repeatedly insist that the euro is a failure, I'm simply asking you what you mean by that term.
THM - it’s not my field (it’s not even my farm) to be considering currency areas, but I think when I looked up Mundell previously (I did honest - like I said it’s interesting) that which you are describing as a theory which then gets muddled is what I described as vague.
I think I could see where the issues are with the current implementation of the Euro, and I could see problematic arguments over a full three part union with the euro as currency, but a number of those apply to the dollar too - though not to the pound (pre-Scots independence anyway).
Now I recall you disagree on the dollar - but I can not recall why you disagree. Excepting of course the de facto argument that it seems to work, which as an engineer I have some sympathy with as we use that sort of argument all the time.
I’m doing a longish commute today so if you have the time for a poor seeker of enlightenment, or even this idiot, then I’d be interested in your personal views.
your compassion for the young and poor of the EZ is well documented
and yours for those on zero hours contracts is also well documented.
You repeatedly insist that the euro is a failure, I'm simply asking you what you mean by that term.
in terms that doesn't require a degree in economics or even buying and reading a book that someone apparently conversant in economics has already bought and read. if you can't be arsed, that's fine, just say so.
Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal had currency troubles long before the Euro. And high unemployment too.
You repeatedly insist that the euro is a failure, I'm simply asking you what you mean by that term.
(I think) Because a classic understanding of Economics will say that Monetary Union with Fiscal Union (central bank, single tax collecting body) over a huge area with disparate economies will fail.
How many countries using the Euro have no growth? Or even more pertinently, which have lower growth than those using Sterling?
And, I don't wish to send this off on a tangent, but THM, why do you do "it"? What is your problem? I'm sure you have a case to make, so make it without "the tone", and without the tactics that bore people into giving up on engaging with you.
Why do people post sh!t and expect a sensible response?
IGM will return later - things have moved on from '61. I suggested that simply as a starting point
You should see why the Maastricht criteria were introduced in order to address (badly) one of the conditions. But as above it was a sticking plaster
Commute later !!
and yours for those on zero hours contracts is also well documented.
3% of uk workforce v 50% youth unemployment - you decide which is more significant del
I think) Because a classic understanding of Economics will say that Monetary Union with Fiscal Union (central bank, single tax collecting body) over a huge area with disparate economies will fail.
- central bank essential for any currency
- can have multiple tax collecting bodies, with some variation in tax rules and powers, but with some core minimums
- huge area … the worlds most important currencies work because of scale
- disparate economies … a stable currency needs diversified industries
Take any of the big world currencies, it is because they are "over a huge area" and include varied areas with "disparate economies" that they "succeed*" rather than "fail*".
[i]*vagueness continues[/i]
Incidentally based on google research on the train, apparently some economists agree with me that the USA probably isn’t an optimal currency area.
Meanwhile, while some economists see Mundell’s attributes of the area as prerequisites, others see the attributes as things that come into existence because of the single currency. I suppose to take a simple example, if any area shares a common currency you will tend over time to see more and more of the area’s trade within that area. Makes sense. Of course other attributes less so.
When I see this sort of thing on an electrical network, I’m instantly wondering if there are two processes not one in play, or if there is a strong feedback loop, and whether any feedback is a stabilising or de-stabilising force.
I doubt economic systems are that different in that respect.
Now the interesting thing about such systems is that they often have a number of stable conditions (in this sense stable might be high unemployment and low GDP - so not necessarily good). An external stimulus might move the system from one stable condition to another. Alternatively it may move the system to an unstable condition from which it decays to a stable, possibly the original, condition. Note that a stable condition includes a cycle between a set of reasonably predictable states.
Does that sound true of economics?
The Euro saved Greece from misery? Err. Wow. Just wow.
Don't worry it's just Ed's sense of humour. Takes some getting used to !
3% of uk workforce v 50% youth unemployment - you decide which is more significant del
i'm pretty sure it's significant to the million people who never know if they're going to work from one day to the next.
are you suggesting that if the europeans introduced zero hours contracts that unemployment among the youth would fall to our levels? think you and i both know there's a bit more to it than that.
i suppose that would be true if you gave them zero hours contracts and they actually did zero hours. 😕
I doubt economic systems are that different in that respect.
Imagine an electrical system in in which one electron decides that it will move from positive to negative. Imagine that a few other electrons see it and think they will do likewise. The others within a part of the system follow suit.
Now the interesting thing about such systems is that they often have a number of stable conditions (in this sense stable might be high unemployment and low GDP - so not necessarily good).
Yeah - this is fundamental. I think it's called "market failure", and it's the rule rather than the exception.
Greece joining the Euro was surely a chance to fix the flaws in the Greeks economy, sadly the EZ never bothered with that.
Is there going to be a Davis, Barnier press conference today?
I imagine trump's trade war has lit a fire under the lazy toad's arse. Barnier must be loving it
May will be praying for some sort of good news b4 the conference, I believe she is also programmed to give a speech today on how us leaving the world's largest free trade bloc shows we are a champion of free trade, or some such
DrJ - I tend to think of people making those decisions in an electrical system rather than electrons, but when you have 30 million users involved in real (ish) time then people do act in a probabilistic manner - absent of other stimuli.
PS - beware people who claim to be engineers. Almost none of them are.
Is there going to be a Davis, Barnier press conference today?
I can't see there being much point. Its like Groundhog Day, isn't it?
Smug grin: "Everything is going great"
The grown up in the room "No it isn't. There has been no progress. Again!"
Greece joining the Euro was surely a chance to fix the flaws in the Greeks economy, sadly the EZ never bothered with that.
Greece has been refoming throughout the period of Euro memebership. Reforms that will assure future tax revenue from propery for example. If they hadn't been overseen by the ECB that would nver have happened. The country would have gone bankrupt and fallen into chaos.
[i](I think) Because a classic understanding of Economics will say that Monetary Union with[b]out[/b] Fiscal Union (central bank, single tax collecting body) over a huge area with disparate economies will fail.[/i]
ooppps 😳
May threatening Boeing.
Hows that free trade deal with the USA going, brexshitters?
Are there any Brexshiteers left on here?
Just you
Have the other 2 musketeers deserted him again?
The UK as a fiscal union? There are many instances where the economic policies that are right for the city of london are simply wrong for Scotland ( and to some extent many other parts of the UK) The larger a fiscal union and the less homogenous it becomes stresses in it grow.
The euro has serious flaws ( but would be stronger if the Uk joined 😉 ) However claims made years ago and still now that the euro has failed are simply wrong. Its in daily use by hundreds of millions of people. No country has left.
But but but...there was the Eurogeddon fund. Didn't you hear about it? All the clever people were going to bet all of their money on the collapse of the euro. Only they didn't, and they lost more than half of what they did bet.
I made the point about Scotland a few pages back. Tumbleweed....
The UK as a fiscal union?
The other significant factor in the UK is that one of the countries (in fact one of the regions) vastly outweighs the other. It's an extremely centralised country, so you can let some of the regions languish if you like and it won't affect the coffers.
thecaptainI made the point about Scotland a few pages back. Tumbleweed....
Oops
S'ok, this conversation has been going round in circles for a while now! Does it get locked when we hit 1000 pages?
thecaptain - MemberS'ok, this conversation has been going round in circles for a while now! Does it get locked when we hit 1000 pages?
Please god no. There'll just be an extra fifty threads a day so that people can voice their unique opinions on how Brexit was a lie and everyone who voted for it was a retarded nazi racist xenophobe.
Capn. Two false observations ; on me and on investors. To extrapolate one fund is staggeringly simplistic.
TJ you may be misunderstanding what fiscal union means. Plus, the fact that the € functions as a means of payment says little about why it failed
THM, you repeatedly asserting that the euro "failed" tells us little about whether it failed...
What would Europe be like now if it hadn't happened?
Is that really a serious question or merely a wind up?
But you are not going to accept my view either way - so follow my link and use £15 wisely
So 5 months of whining and trying to go round Barnier's back by Davis and still no trade talks before 3 issues settled, will Davis actually get on with things now (or was it always just for show ?)
Aye and we would lose such pearls of complete truth like that 🙄There'll just be an extra fifty threads a day so that people can voice their unique opinions on how Brexit was a lie and everyone who voted for it was a retarded nazi racist xenophobe.
Is that really a serious question or merely a wind up?
Serious question.
Interesting article on 'frictionless' border crossings: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-41412561
The point about any system in Dover having to deal with 10x the amount of traffic was also eye-opening for me. Having said that we'll have probably buggered trade up so much it'll be significantly lower anyway which I suppose is one way to solve the problem.
Mol - a few pointers
1. The N would be poorer the periphery richer
2. Unemployment would be much lower
3. Business cycles would be less extreme
4. The debt overhang considerably smaller
5. More banks would be solvent
6. Less stealing from savers
7. Countries would be governed by elected representatives not external appointees
8. Populism and nationalism would be less successful
9. Irish people would be still able to pay their mortgages
10. We would never have seen what proper austerity looks like, only our pretend version
(Oh and Brexshit would not have happened)
Enjoy!
7. Countries would be governed by elected representatives not external appointees
Umm?
Been drinking the Brexit flavoured vodka?
No just travelling thru the periphery
Sensible questions only please
11. Unicorns and owls for all
Sensible questions only please
You are getting lots. Polite ones too.
To (poorly) quote Carl Sagan - "There are naive questions, tedious questions, poorly-phrased questions, questions put after inadequate self-analysis. But every question is a plea to understand the world. There is no such thing as a stupid question"
Explaining why you think the € zone has failed may illuminate us.
Constantly dismissing the question instead of answering is not a polite or reasonable response. And inviting people to spend £15 on one book written covering one viewpoint isn't either.
I also happen to think that the € is a bad idea without greater political union. But this is based on my observation and thinking about it. I don't even know if my assumptions are correct. I'd very much like for someone who does know more about it to inform me.
You are getting lots.
If only - IGM a good example true hence he gets sensible replies
Explaining why you think the € zone has failed may illuminate us.
See above over many pages. If you want to ignore them that's your choice. Even bothered to quote an expert - but accept they are not popular these days
And inviting people to spend £15 on one book written covering one viewpoint isn't either.
He is hero to some who ask silly questions. If they want to wallow in ignorance instead, again that's an individual choice. Cheap investment.
But this is based on my observation and thinking about it.
As opposed to?
I'd very much like for someone who does know more about it to inform me.
I could suggest a nobel winning economist but...
Surely the success (or otherwise) of the euro needs to be measured against the original aim behind its introduction. If the aim was to produce some sort of financial parity across the EU then it's a failure (just ask the Greeks), but if the intention all along was to force ever closer union (through financial necessity to make the euro work properly) then it's too soon to tell. (And yes, I believe there are some who would put the political project ahead of national economies.)
Stop being such a nob THM.
How were the examples mol?
Been drinking the Brexit flavoured vodka?
Being a nob or engaging in sensible debate? Just because you failed to think about two very obvious examples, doesn't mean being a - what the word - .... ?
Well, given that you are an economist and I'm not, I was hoping for a bit more explanation. Remember I know naff all about economics, it'd be nice to be able to learn through a nice chat.
I'm interested in WHY you gave all those points - but 7 does sound quite brexity. I suspect you mean 'governed' in economic terms though.
No in the terms I mentioned. It could not have been clearer. But you chose a silly response and then an insult.
So dont expect any more.
OK THM, explain to us why the questions are stupid.
I've been reading this thread many times a day and don't remember seeing any posts from you explaining the reasons and basis for why you personally believe that the ez is bad.
Although, given your rather rude, patronising and condescending manner on this thread of late, and preference for baiting rather than discussing, I'm rather of the opinion that you are trolling everyone. Quite why I can't fathom but this thread seems to bring out the worst in people.
don't remember seeing any posts from you explaining the reasons and basis for why you personally believe that the ez is bad.
Pretty sure he has elsewhere (in his defence).
There's only one central bank which means only one set of interest rates (?) and only one fiscal and monetary policy. But all the different economies need different policies...
Being a nob or engaging in sensible debate?
Being a nob as you ask. Several pages of provocative mistruths, nonsense soundbites with no substance to back them up, suggestions to read books that are as loaded as order-order propaganda. You're reading like the brexit campaign THM. (no smiley that's straight as was my previous post where you mocked that it needed a smiley). Since Jamab left you read like a man on a revenge mission intent on bringing the whole forum down. Pretty much everything you write is calculated to offend.
I'm finding myself in the same situation as TJ. Debate with someone who is condescending and constantly takes the piss isn't possible.
Shaks - read the pages above. Then come back to me.
mol. There is no common fiscal policy and there are multiple central banks - in fact everyone has one. How can you answer comments that don't stand up from the start.
Ed. That's quite something given your history of posting things that are blatantly untrue. The Greeks being the latest. You outdo Jambas along with your tag team mate - no fiscal union???
suggestions to read books that are as loaded as order-order propaganda
Another great example 8O. Let's compare your comments with some professional reviews
Much more than a demolition job. These chapters are full of constructive proposals - a glimpse of what the "rescues" would have looked like had the troika, perish the thought, hired their critic Stiglitz to design them (Martin Sandbu Financial Times)Stiglitz is one of those economists with a rare ability to help readers understand complex ideas. He writes with pace and passion ... There is much rich analysis and some bold ideas in The Euro. (Philip Aldrick The Times)
You are right in the company you keep. Quite a tag team
How can you answer comments that don't stand up from the start.
By explain why they are wrong. If we all knew the answers there would be no debate and nothing to learn.
I'm going back to see if I can find your answers. Any suggestions for how far back?
Previous page ? Quite a long list that you chose to ignore
Then you could try optimum currency theory - two pages back, plus comment on original source
Or what is required to make a common currency work - ditto
Shouldn't be too hard for you
If that fails try some expensive propaganda - link above but you have to use the tax dodgers Amazon for that. But be warned, Ed reckons that link is BS despite what the pros said in the review. You could take his advice if you trust it
This is what I didn't say earlier that didn't start this little debate off
The € cannot and doesn't not work by design. But to make it fail less of course you need full fiscal and political union. Just one drawback, the people don't want it!!
Reviews by journalists who suit your agenda, THM.
The Euro, like the EU is a success story to be further refined rather than ditched. Society evolves and a process of reforms are essential to managing economies in the Euro zone. That doesn't make it a failure, the shape of those reforms is up for debate, here's one such debate from left-of-centre economists to balance you right-wing champions:
Your black and white "failure" "failed" is simplistic, I assume your eports for you employers expand a little more thah you do on here wher you treat us like simpletons which we are not.
Reviews by journalists who suit your agenda, THM.
You missed the smiley again Ed. Check the first reviewer and the company he works for. Then revert.
Here's one of his recent opening lines - the eurozones economic recovery proves the doomsayers wrong. Is that my agenda ? [Actually work wise at the moment it is!!]
You are a great sport Ed it has to be said. I would be far too embarrassed to keep posting that sort of stuff in public.
treat us like simpletons which we are not.
I have no idea about you Ed. I just address the things you post. Most of which don't stand up to scrutiny. No idea why you do it. I assumed it was humour.
Now you're misquoting me, THM:
, Ed reckons that link is BS despite what the pros said in the review.
At no point I have used "BS", I said "loaded" and "right wing". Both book and reviews are one side of an agument and I'm presenting the other. The result is you are persistently insulting and condescending towards me. You are incaple of debate, you are an Internet bully, always have been always will be.
I can't help it if you call a europhile journo who works for a europhile paper which consistently supported the € as loaded and right wing, can I? That's not presenting another side. It's using BS to shut some else else up, or try to.
It's you who tried to bully arguments with false comments - as this shows - and then gets shirty about it as you said earlier when someone else accused you of derailing a thread.
Anyway this isn't going well. So I will leave it alone for the night. Look forward to more abuse in the morning
Martin Sandrhu loaded and right wing. What a thought to dream on !! Bravo
Look forward to more abuse in the morning
No else is looking forward to receiving your abuse.
Stop feeding.
mol. There is no common fiscal policy and there are multiple central banks - in fact everyone has one. How can you answer comments that don't stand up from the start.
You can correct what's wrong. I didn't know there were multiple banks acting as central banks for example, so thanks.
I'm here to learn not to fight. Unlike some people I know when I don't know stuff!
1. The N would be poorer the periphery richer
2. Unemployment would be much lower
3. Business cycles would be less extreme
4. The debt overhang considerably smaller
5. More banks would be solvent
6. Less stealing from savers
7. Countries would be governed by elected representatives not external appointees
8. Populism and nationalism would be less successful
9. Irish people would be still able to pay their mortgages
10. We would never have seen what proper austerity looks like, only our pretend version
This list? I saw that but it is a list of "answers". I wanted the working that got you there.
I am not an economist, I don't have a financial background nor am I in business. It is hard for me to grapple with these kinds of subjects without the years of knowledge and experience that I assume you have.
It is a bit like if you asked me "how does photosynthesis work to fix carbon?" (I'm a plant biochemist) and I replied something along the lines of "light, chlorophyll, electron transport chains, NADPH, co2, water and RuBisCo". Broadly accepted to be correct but doesn't explain the process or evidence to support it and would leave most people no better informed.
Happy to help mol despite the first reply about the vodka and the nob comment. 😉
Sleep well!!
Constantly dismissing the question instead of answering
V
but it's a list of "answers"
😀
Here a bit of reasoning that you chose to ignore - admittedly with some tongue in cheek
The € cannot and doesn't not work by design. But to make it fail less of course you need full fiscal and political union
That's 3x