[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

One of his better performances?

There's hardly a high benchmark, is there?

The Brexit Bill (such as it is) is due to be debated in parliament on Thursday. I expect that will fire the starting gun on a full on Tory leadership campaign/civil war

The interests of the Tory party being far more important than anything else at the moment, obviously

I imagine it's like getting half an hour with Ken without going full Godwin 🙂

I'm so glad that he can muster one not so bad performances, perhaps it's like Bojo managing not insult somebody foreign

I see that the economists [url= https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Economists-for-Free-Trade-NME-Paper.pdf ]Report[/url] published by Labour Leave campaign reveals what many of us knew all along, that the poorest would benefit most from leaving the EU

[i]The reduction in prices and immigration control are particularly important for lower income households. These households spend more on food and housing, the prices of both of which are raised substantially by EU protectionism. Unskilled immigrants settle in poor communities which, therefore, carry a disproportionate cost in public services as well as suffering from a fall in wages. Our estimates show that the lowest decile household would gain £36 a week from Brexit; the second lowest decile (60 per cent of the median) would gain £44 a week. These gures represent around 15 per cent of their weekly spend.[/i]

Still, i suppose what's best for Them is irrelevant if Kier and Hermione might miss out on ski season, yah?

Shame any rise will eaten up by the fall in the value of the pound...
Or closures to their employers

anyway

First published in Great Britain in September 2017 by
Leave Means Leave, Labour Leave and Economists for Free Trade

Report published by Labour Leave campaign

Factual and disinterested then ninfan. 🙄

The reduction in prices

What? When we import so much food, how will it save us money with a lower currency? If our economy slides, how will that help the poorest?

Sounds like propaganda, doesn't it?

Funny that they complain about the EU being protectionist. If it's biased against those outside it, and in favour of those inside.. which is the better side to be on?

Just when you may have thought this thread couldn't get any sillier, you then discover Kato is a Queen fan!

[I] Edukator - Reformed Troll
For jambalaya to sing:

I want to break free
I want to break free
I want to break free from your lies[/i]

Class.
😀

EU doesn't have the organisation or dynamism to agree such things [trade deals] quickly

I am not sure who is the organised one and who the dynamic one.

ninfan - Member
I see that the [i]economists[/i] Report published by Labour Leave....

I had a quick read, and no economists were listed as contributors.

Edukator I could post up a suitably embarrasing photo of me doing my own impression of that video a few years back. However as self deprecating as I can be its not for this audience. As for breaking free yes thats exactly what we are doing, we wish the EU the best but it's not for us.

Will catch up on the thread later, @ninfan linked to a very interesting piece I read earlier. Unfortunately @ernie_lynch doesn't post here but as a Left/Labour Leaver he would I am sure have something to say.

David Davies made many very pragmatic points on Marr today (eg the "Brexit Bill" is not a legal commitment and it's not legally enforceable and that "the money" is very important to them). Politico also made a very valid prediction in that nothing much is likely to be resolved until an emergncy EU summit in Sep/Oct 2018

No but it takes about 1 minute to know who they are. Some very well known economists back this project including one I used to work with.

The only odd thing is that they are not natural bed fellows for Labour. Patrick Minford is better known for his association with she-who-cannot-be-mantioned!

Another leading figures is Roger Bootle who has just released to a book on how o make Brexshit work. First serialisation in the brexshit bugle today. As ever, I like to know what my opponents are thinking so will be downloading the book tonight on my kindle

teamhurtmore - Member
No but it takes about 1 minute to know who they are. Some very well known economists back this project including one I used to work with.

And yet they declined to be associated with this release, as contributors? Odd one, eh?

German Presidential debate tonight. Seems Turkey was discussed more than Germany with each candidate trying to "out tough" each other on Edogan/EU membership and the overall refugee / migrant crises and Merkel's past mistakes. Brexit wasn't mentioned. Merkel still favourite having turned around a very shaky position at the start.

http://www.politico.eu/article/angela-merkel-martin-schulz-german-election-tv-debate-live-blog/

On the contrary - their logo is very prominent and the link goes directly to their website

As a group they are upping the marketing - two of the team in the Brexshit Bugle today (although they are no stranger to that paper tbf) and Bootle's book comes out on Thursday (so can't read tonight 🙁 )

Plenty of big name economists behind this and some interesting stats, not least Bootle's figures on how our market share has decreased since being in the single market while some of the biggest gainers have "accessed" (nb) the market under WTO. Of the list of the 40 fastest growing market shares of Xs to the founder members, we rank 36 while 14 of the 40 have access via WTO

Interesting. Looking foreword to Thursday

The Economists for Free Trade, not the economists, this definitely an impartial source?

Any more or less impartial than an academic with EU funding ? A University academic is probably your archetypal metropolitan lefty elite Remainer. The bulk of the Leave Economists seem to come from industry.

German Budget Surplus is 2.5/3x the UK contribution at the moment. Does that put into perspective the EU budget perspective?

So how come the Germans are so keen for the EU's net recipients to get less rather than they pay more post Brexit ? Also how come they are so woefully short on their NATO commitment and have asked for 10 (?) years to increase it from 1% to the target of 2% ?

Minford has been a Liverpool Uni since I can remember

Cogdon was one of the Tories three wise men - not a natural Labour ally

So how come the Germans are so keen for the EU's net recipients to get less rather than they pay more post Brexit ? Also how come they are so woefully short on their NATO commitment and have asked for 10 (?) years to increase it from 1% to the target of 2% ?

Minford - the man whose suggestion for a successful Brexit was to remove all tariffs, accept the total death of manufacturing and make the UK a service only economy. Great for GDP - not good for decent jobs for the working class.

I would be surprised if that was what he said, so would be interested in the source

But at least you know who he is - unlike some others.

Odd bedfellow don't you think?

metropolitan lefty elite Remainer.

#jambafact

It looks like we are finally getting some leadership from the EU

[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41140564 ]Education top priority for Barnier, BBC link[/url]

Odd bedfellow don't you think?

There are far odder things to be found by digging around "Labour" Leave.

Anyway, is Minford still arguing in favour of the Poll Tax, and against a statutory minimum wage?

And Minford is promoting the unilateral lifting of all import tariffs.

Minford's statements have already been soundly debunked. His model is extremely simple and refuses to take into account things like distance and goods differentials etc.

[url= http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-britain-alone-scenario-how-economists-for-brexit-defy-the-laws-of-gravity/ ]http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-britain-alone-scenario-how-economists-for-brexit-defy-the-laws-of-gravity/[/url]

For no particular reason Kelvin, I don't imagine you old enough to be so on top of Minford's work (unlike an old codger like me 😉 )

Getting back to the politics, rather than economics - that's what driving things here, after all...

Anna Sourby was interviewed on Radio 4 this morning. It didn't sound much like she, or any of her other staunch remainers colleagues were in any mood for doing Dave, Boris, Liam and Enola any favours.

Saying that it was her duty as an MP to put the interests of the country before party loyalty. I'm sure that's exactly what Enola wants to hear

Apparently, the Tory whips have been in overdrive threatening every MP with apocalyptic consequences should they table amendments to the Brexit Bill. But as May has zero authority, no friends, and has pissed off most of her MPs on a political level with her shambolic election debacle, and a lot of them personally, like Nikki Morgan, a lot of them are clearly relishing the idea of well and truly throwing a spanner into the Brexit works.

And if you believe Andrew Rawnsley and other political commentators, Thursday will just be an early shot across the bows, before they really start to cause trouble as things get a bit more serious committee stage next month. And then May has the small matter of the Tory Party Conference to get through.

So the first skirmishes of yet another Tory civil war over Europe seem set to begin properly on Thursday.

Here we go again....

I dunno binners I think they are all so terrified of finding another leader that doesn't precipitate a Corbyn victory
and re Brexit, I don't think any of them really know how it will work out so I suspect they'll show little backbone and just vote as they are told by the whips, and carry on- slating May behind her back.

Minford's statements have already been soundly debunked

I think this is too strong, there is disagreement. My understanding is those who put forward to "gravity model", whilst numerous, have historically not been that successful at predicting trade flows. You never have to look far in economics to find an opposing view and it is always dangerous to assume one side of the argument has a monopoly of wisdom.

There are always opposing views, mistakes on "all sides", but Minford is an outlier, and, once again, his analysis is considered seriously flawed by his peers. In fact, he make the news BECAUSE he is well outside the consensus view in his field. Handy for the media (including those wanting to look "balanced").

I agree (in part) kelvin and the same could be said of Congdon hence my comment about odd bedfellows

An important section of the Labour Party aligning themselves with these guys is not obvious!!

Anna who, Binners?

Does anybody honestly believe any of this madness is actually being driven by economics? On either side?

We're well past the ideological event horizon. As this thread shows

Nobody, including economists... in fact ESPECIALLY economists have got the remotest idea what the outcome of all this is going to be. We're about to hurl ourselves blindfolded off a cliff, just to see what happens.

The only difference here* is whether you think doing something a bit smarter and more thoughtful might be an altogether better idea, or whether you're some Ayn Rand, free-market fruitloop who's bought into that whole 'Creative Chaos' BS

*I'm handily discounting thicko's and racists here. We all know what they think (and indeed, voted for).

speaking of Rand
Brexit & Corbyn the perfect (shit)storm

https://www.economist.com/news/britain/21727080-combination-brexit-and-jeremy-corbyn-could-lead-dystopia-ayn-rand-predicted

Does anybody honestly believe any of this madness is actually being driven by economics? On either side?

Politics have always > economies on both sides which is why both sides are in a mess here.

Nobody, including economists... in fact ESPECIALLY economists have got the remotest idea what the outcome of all this is going to be. We're about to hurl ourselves blindfolded off a cliff, just to see what happens.

Calm down. We are not going off a cliff, that's just remoan nonsense. We are doing something that has never been done before true, but that does not mean it's a cliff.

as mountainbikers we should all be up for riding off cliffs?

its all down to the landing

what brexiters imagine...
[img] [/img]

reality...
[img] [/img]

The "cliff" terminology is being used by our current Conservative PM and our current Conservate Chancellor of the Exchequer. Remoan nonsense?

Yes. We are moving towards a messy compromise, not free fall.

BENDER!!!! NOOOO!!!!!!

I see BoJo pushing DD, well Govie told me....

Yes. We are moving towards a messy compromise, not free fall.

Davis also used the term cliff-edge

(May using 'cliff edge' term to get backing for her repeal bill, and to make her MPs considering backing amendments to think twice.)

(Hammond using 'cliff edge' to get backing for a transition arrangement that buys time to prepare for our new relationship with trading partners.)

(Can presume both think that a 'cliff edge' is a possibility, if they're using it to get people to back policies to avoid it.)

Moving towards a humiliating climb-down, more like.

good to see Barnier correcting the sloppy press on the crap headlines about teaching the UK lessons - he's far too sensible - and ditto with DD (not) calling Barnier silly on Marr

The press really should be more responsible as should remoaners. Leave the BS to the Brexshiteers.

Cliff edge may be a worse case scenarios - hence th uses alluded to ^ - but it won't happen. There is too much to loose on both sides.

So it is a possible scenario? Thank you

Not only a possible scenerio, but the default one.

Agree that it is very unlikely to happen… but would be foolish to assume that it can't… given the ticking clock and the cake and eat it starting position of "our side".

Perhaps but let's be precise shall we 😉 - what I said to Binners is that we are not going there. Not what are the possible scenarios.

I'm still waiting to hear if Boris can actually whistle.

I very much hope that the EU place some probability on it happening, otherwise the negotiations are a waste of time. They will just push us into a corner.

Good to see do acknowledging how the EU (doesn't) negotiation and the false Time versus Money tactic. He's obviously learning on the job rather than sticking his head in the sand. Well done that man.

DD learning on the job? Do we have time for that?

I'm still waiting to hear if Boris can actually whistle.

FOI request?

Yes, a marvellous performance from the tories all round. One can't avoid being thoroughly impressed.

DD learning on the job? Do we have time for that?

Clearly not, but it's better than those who remain stuck in the past - the result doesn't matter, the Brexshiteers lied to us, people are too thick to vote, it's was only meant to be an advisory poll etc, wah, wah, wah - so some progress and common sense on both sides is to be welcomed.

Better how? How is DD leading us to a situation that's even as good as now, never mind better? Where is he making progress towards an acceptable, never mind ideal, deal? Pick a well considered Brexitier, and ask how well they think DD is doing in moving us to an outcome that they want.

THM - Easy enough to find Minford proposing unilateral tariff removal and the response to his views. Google it - first page multiple hits.
Harder to find the comments from him on manufacturing and services. It was about a year ago he made the comments, and the argument was that Britain is far better at services than manufacturing (he was using productivity as a measure of better). If we dropped import tariffs unilaterally, and accepted we would just import finished goods from elsewhere, then that would actually drop prices in this country. We would all then work in the service sector (well we wouldn't have a manufacturing sector worth talking of) which being a more productive sector would give us a better standard of living. (Hmmm. Maybe. On average. Ignoring winners and losers.)
It reminded me strangely of The Time Machine by Wells and the division on humanity into two distinct sub-species.
Remember we as of 2016 were the 7th largest manufacturing economy in the world. We still make things. Bad idea to drop that I'd say.

Disclaimer - the clear bias and rough and ready nature of the above description is because I'm a liberal lefty engineer (unusual breed actually) not a right wing academic economist (possibly equally rare)

Better how? How is DD leading us to a situation that's even as good as now, never mind better?

That's impossible - we agree. I have long argued that Dave's deal is as good as it gets. But that's history

Where is he making progress towards an acceptable, never mind ideal, deal?

Very gradual progress made so far except in giving into the EU BS which would be - what's the word? - "silly"

Pick a well considered Brexitier, and ask how well they think DD is doing in moving us to an outcome that they want.

A - you have found "a" common Brexshiteer strategy. You are well ahead of me then.

IGM too much to take in but I am intrigued by an engineer reading Bloomberg!! May respond from train 😉

What gradual progress? What acceleration rate is needed to avoid the cliff edge that can't be allowed to happen?

How is his approach "better" than those proposing either a rethink about Leaving, or a closer deal with the EU (something akin to the rightly much derided Norway deal) in the medium term, not just upto the next election?

But that's history

We can keep having it if we ask very, very nicely.

What do you define as his approach?

THM - not your average engineer 😉

Davis approach ? It's easiest to blame it all on May (hence no Tory wanting her job)

So far it's been...whine that we can't negotiate trade etc in parallel, despite having agreed the EUs schedule on day 1 of the talks.

Mostly its been to do what's in the best interest of the conservative party rather than the country
ie, triggering A50 as soon as possible to keep the swivel eyed among them from boiling over and ensuring that a transition deal ends b4 the next election, so they can say they are executing Brexit, regardless of the speed we're hiring the cliff edge .
Then obviously he was the brains behind the early GE that burnt up even more time.

He even admitted that he'd not done an impact assessment of a hard Brexit

And as thm points out Brexit isn't impossible it's just unknown & again Davis is sorely lacking as he's not done the impact assessments to see what it is the UK wants, Rudd only asked for an immigration assesment in March, other than Brexit meaning Brexit 😉 we won't know what we do want until ....?

By then it's too late a50s been triggered & the transition is running out, it's true to say this also leaves the EU on its toes, but leaves everyone wasting time preparing for the worst case scenario.

I've only read extracts from DD's book about his Tate&Lyle years, not the whole thing… so I'm paraphrasing his approach here… "don't tell them anything" "only make small, ever decreasing concessions" "make sure the other side makes the first meaningful concession".

So, I think he is looking to get the EU to back down as regards the sequencing (he's as much as said so) and so other cabinet members will need to step in and talk the talk as regards the exit agreement, to get the trade arrangement talks started in earnest, in time.

Pick a well considered Brexitier, and ask how well they think DD is doing in moving us to an outcome that they want.

A - you have found "a" common Brexshiteer strategy. You are well ahead of me then.

No, I'm not asking if DD is progressing to some unicorn "please all Brexit voters" end deal, I'm asking you to find a single considered Brextier, who campaigned to Leave, not bound by cabinet responsibility, who thinks DD is doing well. Just one. Those I follow on Twitter are scathing about him.

good to see Barnier correcting the sloppy press on the crap headlines about teaching the UK lessons - he's far too sensible - and ditto with DD (not) calling Barnier silly on Marr

I just wanted to agree 100% with THM about something. So I picked this.

You are a charmer kelvin and I will try to reciprocate - but first let me answer your questions and I so doing disagree again. Apologies in advance 😉

1. My FIL
2. I don't know but I would expect that Twitter followers are probably more rabid Brexshiteers but could be wrong

Ok, your other stuff

How is his approach "better" than those proposing either a rethink about Leaving

Start with the easy one - it's democratic

or a closer deal with the EU (something akin to the rightly much derided Norway deal) in the medium term, not just upto the next election?

Also easy but admittedly something that is easily misunderstood 😉

Don't forget two of the intermediate options - EEA and CU - are in themselves imperfect and worse that what we have now. Why? Neither gives access to the market for both services and goods. Each only gives access to one but not the other. THATS IMPORTANT. I will leave the other caveats and weakness for later.

Now the much (and falsely) derided red, white and blue Brexsit is different and better. Again, Why? Because it seeks to ensure access to both the markets for goods and services and to minimise the weakness of both the other options. So it's better, much better.

Now whether we get it of course is a different matter. Personally I doubt it. So what's my point? My perception of your earlier argument was that you were suggesting that DD was pursuing a hard Brexshit strategy and one that (we both agree) would tindeed be worse. But he is not and he said as much yesterday while agreeing with me that hard v south is a fatuous argument (he was politer than me on that point).

If he was more like jambas, ninfan and JR-M, rather than wasting time and effort in pursuing this more lofty goal, he would be simply putting demands down on the table and saying take it or we go HARD!!!

Clearly he isn't. So I rest my case and can turn to Gideons Gibshite in the train for amusement....

(I'm intrigued IGM!!)

"It's democratic" is just a dressed up "you lost, get over it."

Democracy doesn't exclude calls to change policy.

And why are you bringing up hard and soft?

So which Leave campaigners, not in the cabinet, say DD is progressing well?

I'm less concerned about where DD says he's taking us, and more concerned about where his approach will leave us in the end. As are people on all parts of the spectrum on the EU issue.

Oh campaigners? No idea, sorry.

Me too. He is doing a little better than two weeks ago, so progress. The soft tone from Barnier today was a surprise twist and hint of a chink in the EUs armour. He can't f@ck it up either as despite what many remoaners think, they really do have a lot to lose too.

So onwards towards a messy compromise achieved after an indeterminate transition period. [s]no cliffs needed[/s]

So hurry up guys and get Mary, Mungo and Midge together quickly so the proper stuff can be agreed.

Do we think other cabinet members are waiting for an impasse before stepping in?

[b]Edit[/b] - looks like it's happening soon… timetables changed on expectation of the PM stepping in with an announcement.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-09-04/may-s-brexit-speech-could-delay-next-brexit-talks-round-eu-says

Sneaky edit there

1. Yes, that too. Q appropriate ("we did, we should")
2. Was think about not descending to HvS but sometimes compromises have to be made - there's a coincidence! I was really only in passing and then finally for (admittedly weak) comic effect. (I was told off on another thread this morning for not resorting to humour, so like DD that was a baby step 😉 )

waiting for a what???

So a simple question for you Kelvin

Why do you/might you (can't tell) prefer DD to be negotiating a Norway solutions (with its weaknesses) rather than the one he is currently negotiating (which is better)?

You can't beat a sneaky edit.

I always review after posting… only way to read what I'm posting with this teeny tiny text on an iPad.

True and I just slipped one in too 😉 !

The "new" forum is crap for typing

Why would I like an achievable deal to be arrived at in a timescale that means that businesses and border agencies can prepare for it? Are you asking me that? Cake and eat it strategy is a high risk game being played by those that don't have to pay the price of failure.

Some who voted remain would rather everything went to shit, in the hope that forces a reconsideration. I'd rather we kept a close achievable relationship with EU and other satellite countries, and then pushed to rejoin 20 years down the track, rather than further diverged.

I want more than the Norway deal though, as it would screw over our farmers and fishing industry just as much as a "clean break", and, despite how many people in those industries voted, I value them as a key part of what the UK is.

Despite all that pragmatism, I still think we should stay in the EU and protect ourselves from the pain… and obviously that would need a democratic mandate of some kind, before we've left. No idea how that can happen, but it should.

THM - not that intriguing either.

At this rate two years will pass by and the debate won't have got beyond the Irish border.

Tick, tock…

as despite what many remoaners think, they really do have a lot to lose too.

Odd. I dont know any remainers who thinks along those lines.
Anyone sane knows both sides are liable to get damaged. Unfortunately we seem to have some of the insane ones in charge currently.

Are we still on track for a perfect red white and blue Brexit?

Blood, pale skin, and bruises?