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Or a decade !
with Corbyn in charge - you must be joking - out as soon as possible more likely.
Well the figures tell you that counter to the prevailing conventional wisdom, Labour tend to be more economically rational than the Tories (based on the national debts run up by the parties when in power) so I wouldn't be too sure of that.
Sounds like there are moves to change Labour's policy to stay in the single market permanently at the forthcoming conference. No idea how likely it is to get adopted.
A coup d'etat?
Odd definition of economically rational plus required the ability to ignore time lags in surpluses and deficits, IGM but apart from that.... carry on....p. s. Does that also mean that the austerity myth can be put to bed?
Watson is the real soft Brexshiter among the Big 3 - are there more than three outside the tokens?
Government spending hasn't been austere THM, but due to shoddy economic management people's pockets have been. So I'll agree with you a bit.
They can only keep blaming Labour for so long.
The point on time lags is valid, excepting that since 79 we have had very long periods of one party or the other - tending to nullify time lag effects.
You'll have to explain that one / the people's pocket bit?
What I mean is low (real) wage growth/recovery not government spending is causing people to feel poor.
Whether they are or not, well that's a different question really.
I appreciate that -!it was the causation I was struggling with no mention of the state vandalism of education anywhere
Now you've lost me. "state vandalism of education" - I know it makes sense to you, but I've missed your meaning. Probably my fault.
That said I've just found out the school expect parents to pay for the materials for lessons at our local state high school - that should come out of taxes. Not a problem for us to pay - not so good for some others.
No need to worry about how long things might take, you just need ordonnances... .
with no mention of the state vandalism of education anywhere
ess-aitch-one-tee, do we agree on something?
A coup d'etat?
They've been tried to oust him b4, it only makes him stronger!
But the more drawn outs complicated & obviously beyond Davis et al that even these preliminary negotiations become the more people will realise they were promised unicorns, but are getting an ass
But he's a conviction politician and hates the EU - the most convincing brexshiteer in the UK
If that's the case why did he vote remain?
Someone so principled, who's spent his career voting how the fk he likes, suddenly changed his mind?
Personally reckon hes pretty apathetic about the EU, he's far more focused on nationalising everything he can get his hands on
Because "conviction" is a BS narrative ?
If that's the case why did he vote remain?Someone so principled, who's spent his career voting how the fk he likes, suddenly changed his mind?
Personally reckon hes pretty apathetic about the EU, he's far more focused on nationalising everything he can get his hands on
some people are so naive...
Unless Corbyn actually says he wants a soft brexit, and doesn't mention transitional in there, then that will not be his policy - he will leave it for the public to be fooled into thinking labour want a soft brexit and perhaps be enthused/duped enough to vote for him, and then he can say "I never said that".
Just like the GE, along with the student fees obviously, which also duped a lot of people.
Trouble is he has gone back to being toxic to a lot of people, perhaps even more now as they feel he is a sneaky bugger as well as having toxic policies.
Oh I agree he was very ambiguous on Brexit in the GE he allowed the Tories to plough on with their hard brexit push & watched them lose their assured landslide as a result
hes also savvy enough to let the brexiters make a pigs ear of the whole thing and then look like the sensible option.
eg Starmers measured comments compared to Davis wild-eyed denial of reality & Fox's childish tantrums
(musnt forget 'Go Whistle' Johnson is out there in the world using his reputation to sell brexit too)
The oracle speaks
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Don't see the need for a referendum on this, after all we already had one and voted for it (it was between the questions on single market and ECJ on my ballot paper).
Dont remember it being multiple choice?
Binners you are in a Remainers echo chamber there by the sounds of it. As I unserstand it the UK is the EU's largest importer under WTO tariffs (ie from outside the EU). We have the systems to cope with that and we have to send 75% (or 80?) of the tariffs raised to the EU. Once out we get to keep those taxes raised at our expense (systems and consumers). We can extend those systems to the EU27 if we don't get a trade deal done by April 2019.
Common knowledge the the Brexit dept was overwhelmed by applications from pro-Leaver civil servants desperate to work on the most important and beneficial Government project of their lifetime.
As for the 10% of GDP "lost" due to Brexit that was a figure from totally discredited Osbourne/Cameron/HMT Project Armageddon document which assumed we would not sign a single new trade deal ever (during the period of the "analysis")
TMH we both know London property is under presure due to Osbourne's massive property tax hikes. I can rent in SW3 for 7 years before I pay an amount equal to the stamp duty of buying the same flat and that's without considering service charges (included in rent) and any mortgage costs. You've got to be very bullish on London property prices to buy.
Like I said many times, there will be no real progress until after the German Elections are settled and Govt formed. There will not be "sufficient progress" on the "financial settlement" from the EU Parliament's Perspective as we won't be paying their blackmail / extortion demand. We will pay what 's legally due - they need to prove what they think that is. I am sure we have our view, I certainly have mine
@cloudnine it was pretty clear that we'd be leaving the customs union and the single market. Leavers and Remainers said so repeatedly (Cameron, Osbourne, Boris, Gove ...)
So let's repeat again
THE Single Market IS the European Union - if you remain a member of one you are a member of the other
The Customs Union prevents members from agreeing their own external trade deals, agreeing such new deals was a core strategy goal of the Leave Campaign
Like I said many times, there will be no real progress until after the German Elections are settled and Govt formed. There will not be "sufficient progress" on the "financial settlement" from the EU Parliament's Perspective as we won't be paying their blackmail / extortion demand. We will pay what 's legally due - they need to prove what they think that is. I am sure we have our view, I certainly have mine
We all know you have your opinion, what it's based on it up for debate, bit too much of the Koolaid perhaps. The UK will not have fast trade deals and the UK does not need fast deals - those ones are the bad ones.
@igm claiming the Labour Party are the ones to be economically rational is erm ... something I would disagree most strongly with. History will show you a more economically rational Chancellor than McDonell had to go to the IMF for a bailout.
UK unemployment is 4.4% France 9.75% Hollande rejected austerity initially, found that didn't work. As a result France is saddled with a 3% budget deficit it MUST address due to € zone rules. Hollande splashed the cash tried to raise taxes (as Labour would do) and failed. Just as Labour would do. Would you rather have a job with static wages or be unemployed. That's the choice. Our economy was built on borrowed money, deleveraging (ie paying it back) is VERY painful and we still have far to go as a country and as individuals. A real terms pay cut is a small price to pay versus the alternative (eg Greece)
As for the 10% of GDP "lost" due to Brexit that was a figure from totally discredited Osbourne/Cameron/HMT Project Armageddon document which assumed we would not sign a single new trade deal ever (during the period of the "analysis")
I don't ever remember that figure. Various studies showed ranges based on different assumptions. There was some bloke on here, however, arguing that the economy was going into a 4% recession in one year which was very funny. Miss those kind of mega remoans.
We will pay what 's legally due
Not sure about that since that answer would be £00.00 which will be several billions out IME.
Common knowledge the the Brexit dept was overwhelmed by applications from pro-Leaver civil servants desperate to work on the most important and beneficial Government project of their lifetime.
Jambafact and a truly delusional one at that!, even the Brexit bugle disagrees
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/24/hundreds-civil-service-jobs-forbrexitnegotiators-have-not-filled/
As for the 10% of GDP "lost" due to Brexit that was a figure from totally discredited Osbourne/Cameron/HMT Project Armageddon document which assumed we would not sign a single new trade deal ever (during the period of the "analysis")
Are we sure that want the academic study that jambs linked to ? Im sure I had to post that up a few weeks ago to remind everyone
Anyone can read the study - as I said, they, like others presented various scenarios. There worse case scenario was 6% not 10%. Jambas figure is an exaggeration.
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TMH the 10% comes from the letter quoted by @cloudnine, if it's 6% in the original Project Armageddon document then even better. Both numbers are bollix.
jambalaya - Member - Block User
@cloudnine it was pretty clear that we'd be leaving the customs union and the single market. Leavers and Remainers said so repeatedly (Cameron, Osbourne, Boris, Gove ...)
FFS. I do try and stay away from this thread with its faux-insider sneering and bshitting but this really takes the biscuit for selective remembering. Remainers warned we'd have to leave the customs union and the single market, Leavers repeatedly assured us we wouldn't. Cake and eat it anyone?
indeed johnners
http://www.open-britain.co.uk/boris_johnson_id_vote_to_stay_in_the_single_market
even gove reckoned we could stay in the single market
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36074853
even the alt-right press were telling us it was the best thing to do
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiF6YvBz4fWAhWDDcAKHZooCwEQFggoMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fhitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk%2F2017%2F06%2Fi-have-always-favoured-the-norway-option-for-leaving-the-eu-what-i-said-in-2003.html&usg=AFQjCNEUr1r2p_fybf7DW-v_uVoxMOxiTQ ]
we are all eating cake remember
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the brexiters, their puppetmasters in the press all said we could have the Norway option
turns out they were lying, who'd a thunk it !??!
those Vote Leave types never mentioned a £50000000000 exit bill either
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The in/our if the SM and CU is a false argument
We were always giving up membership
We were always working out how to continue to have access
It's just sloppy terminology - often deliberate e.g. hard Brexshit - that's to blame
Hundreds of pages ago I posted a great link summarising it and explaining why the debate was mostly BS
[b]From the outset, it is important that the Government, Parliament and the public are clear about the distinction between ‘access to’ and ‘membership of’ the Single Market. [/b]Many countries have ‘access to’ the EU’s Single Market, either through agreed tariffs at the WTO or via a FTA. [b]However, the only countries which have full membership of the Single Market—which entails the liberalised movement of goods, services, people and capital (the ‘Four Freedoms’), secured through common rules interpreted by the European Court of Justice (CJEU)— are EU Member States.[/b] The EEA states only enjoy partial membership, because the EEA agreement does not include a customs union. On the other hand, Turkey’s inclusion in a customs union with the EU does not entail the free movement of services, people or capital. Fundamentally, full membership of the Single Market is predicated upon acceptance of all Four Freedoms.
[b]This principle is in tension with the Government’s commitment to maintaining liberalised trade with the EU while also curbing the free movement of persons and the reach of the CJEU, via a bespoke arrangement[/b]
It's remoaner BS to mix this up and pretend we didn't mean this/that or laziness in not reading government docs like this which were freely available ahead of the vote
Membership of v access to. That's all anyone needs to remember
Repeat 100x
Not posted in here (32k posts?!)..but I'd be fascinated to know your source of 'common knowledge' of this...
Common knowledge the the Brexit dept was overwhelmed by applications from pro-Leaver civil servants desperate to work on the most important and beneficial Government project of their lifetime.
lol we all would, I think it's from the Jackanory news agency or possibly the What I want to be true library. It's all just bluster to make a shit situation seem better and to try and convince people that the majority want full on Brexit.
Also given the current headlines there appear to be a couple of things going on...
Challenge to May, anyone think she could survive it? Especially if a majority of Tory MP's are pro EU and they put forward a Pro EU leader? Whats the next move after that?
Talk of a £50bn exit bill - Sunday Times Source above - it's either going with the leadership idea to finish May off or to soften people up to a £30bn bill being a victory.
For reference 50bn would pay for close to 6 years of EU membership with nothing in return.
Given how powerful the bus figures are how would an ad campaign suggesting that Brexit will cost far more and deliver nothing, with no extra money to UK services?
Will be a bold PM who signs off on that deal wouldn't you all say?
Almost makes leaving a stupid idea....
It's remoaner BS to mix this up and pretend we didn't mean this/that or laziness in not reading government docs like this which were freely available ahead of the vote
Yeah because we all sit around reading government documents....
The BS is from the leave camp who on many many occasions contradicted that (see my links above) on TV, in the papers
bearnecessities - Member
Not posted in here (32k posts?!)..but I'd be fascinated to know your source of 'common knowledge' of this...
Common knowledge the the Brexit dept was overwhelmed by applications from pro-Leaver civil servants desperate to work on the most important and beneficial Government project of their lifetime.
My source, who ought to know but may not, tells me that guaranteed promotions had to be offered to get people to apply and that the Ministry of Silly Brexit is now mightily annoyed that other departments talked the less good civil servants into applying thereby getting rid of dregs and trouble makers that couldn't get promoted in their own departments.
Of course he may be wrong / fibbing, but I don't think he is.
No kimbers I read one of your links (the Gove one) and immediately it is clear that your point is lost: simply down to a basic misunderstanding and hence misinterpretation of what is going on and what is being said.
Once you begin from the correct starting point i.e. The ability to differentiate between membership of and access to it all falls into place and your argument above becomes invalid
Remoaners complain that the Brexshiteers were too thick to be able to vote and were misled and then you admit to not having enough time to understand the issues properly. I have posted that paragraph three times now.
Hence mikes comment falls into the same category I.e. The majority want full on brexshit. WTF is that about.l? The vote was about membership of the EU. We know - or at least should do if we (both sides) can be bothered tot read and understand the issues - what that means.
We are giving up membership - more people voted for that that voted to retain it
We are now negotiating the nature of our on-going access to single market. The rest is BS
Membership of v access to - REPEAT 101x
. Remainers warned we'd have to leave the customs union and the single market, Leavers repeatedly assured us we wouldn't.
The is the perfect example of a remoan. An argument based on a misrepresentation of the issues involved. "Leave" has zero value in this context other than to confuse, deliberately or otherwise.
membership of v access to - simple isn't it?
We know that gove spouted a lot of BS during the campaign - very true - but let's look at your link
The UK would still be able to trade freely within Europe even if it left the EU, Michael Gove has said.
Ok so far but sloppy use of leave (BBC or Gove not sure)
The justice secretary said the UK could be part of Europe's free trade area to avoid trade tariffs, even if it was not[b] a member of the [/b]EU single market.
Same again - nb member of
.....On trading, he said the UK would be part of the European free trade zone with [b]access to [/b]the European single market but ....
Same again nb reference to access to....
What you have done is to quote a rare occasion when a Brexshiteer was telling the truth and distorted it into a remoan. Awesome.
Jambas it wasnt 6% either - that was their worst case scenario
Hence mikes comment falls into the same category I.e. The majority want full on brexshit. WTF is that about.l? The vote was about membership of the EU. We know - or at least should do if we (both sides) can be bothered tot read and understand the issues - what that means.
Well welcome to context....
My comment was specifically addressing the post above about sources for the Jambyfacts, part of the approach appears to be to make it seem like lots more people want out, that people were desperate to join the Ministry of Leave and Chaos, that "The Majority voted for brexit parties at the GE" it's spin and window dressing to go with faltering negotiations and the dawning reality of being able to deliver none of the promises and having to front up to the people that Brexit means big bills, less income and no £350 milling for the NHS. It's running in parallel with the Fail/Express headlines hitting home how awful and nasty the EU are.
Anyway that rant over, I'm more intrigued by what happens when May is challenged, will any of the Brexit 3 step up?
I hope not
But don't forget in passing
More people voted to give up membership that to retain it
Both major parties campaigned to respect that decision
Inconvenient truths I know
The question on the ballot paper asked "Should the UK remain a member of the EU or leave the EU? "
So if we answer ‘Leave’, it means stopping ‘free movement’? No, where does it mention that? Read the question.
And getting out of the single market (which is separate to EU membership)?
No. Read the question.
Indeed read it and ask what membership is all about
DD and Starmer are both on marr now
My source, who ought to know but may not, tells me that guaranteed promotions had to be offered to get people to apply and that the Ministry of Silly Brexit is now mightily annoyed that other departments talked the less good civil servants into applying thereby getting rid of dregs and trouble makers that couldn't get promoted in their own departments.Of course he may be wrong / fibbing, but I don't think he is.
Appreciate you're just passing on your friend's info, but every word of that is absolute laughable nonsense 🙂
Interesting perspective here. Those of the Pro Brexit persuasion wil of course dismiss it as remoaner BS, but perhaps there is an element of truth in the lack of understanding of the complexity of the reality vs the simplistic expectation of the campaign on both sides.
More people voted to give up membership that to retain itBoth major parties campaigned to respect that decision
Inconvenient truths I know
Yep, but now more facts are coming to light, like divorce payments, no easy trade deals and more to follow. All I saw is it will be interesting and pose a lot more questions. After all the chance of this government lasting till the end of the negotiations is similar to Wenger lasting the season at the moment. They say a week is a long time in politics, we have a lot of weeks to go.
Divorce payments - more sloppy language 😀
sorry I'm using the common man's terms. Perhaps teacher THM needs to go ride his bike for a bit...
Beware of the common man - a consistent theme above is that "he" is the person who is too thick to understand what is going on 😉
Bike coming, Marr first
But unsurprisingly Gove [b]was[/b] lying
Access to the single market does not leave us...
free from EU regulation which costs us billions of pounds a year".
Not on the issue you claimed.
He lied on many issues with a bare face - agreed
KS dealing with tricky questions quite well but essentially nothing different. Nice and clear including admitting the difficulties
Bike coming, Marr first
Winter is Coming. Never mind Marr, get on your bike!
teamhurtmore - Member
Not on the issue you claimed
[grited teeth] I will concede that you are right on that [/grited teeth]
😀
And equally I concede that I ended my quote before the less factual stuff began 😉
Gove makes my skin crawl with his bare faced lies
Marr has writers of THIS HOUSE on at the moment - great play
UK unemployment is 4.4% France 9.75%
somehow we managed that under the yoke of the oppressive EU.
we still have far to go as a country and as individuals.
we?
edited. unnecessary.
Appreciate you're just passing on your friend's info, but every word of that is absolute laughable nonsense
Appreciate your view point, but I have reason to believe him. Less so Jamba's assertion.
Maybe there should be a second referendum
Those that want to stay get a second crack at it ....but would have to accept the result this time round , none of this we was robbed your honour if the lose
Those that wish to leave get a solid yup we are leaving , f you barrier your exit bill and everything else there would be no reason not to leave then
Secondly I wonder what the Eu would do there's going to be a big hole in their coffers if they don't get their money but eventually Germany and France and the other 25 "solidarity for Europe" countries are going to be thinking we are financially losing here as individual countries and it will be every man for himself , if there's no trade deal with the Uk they can talk it up all they want but where are you going to export your extra % of product we don't take last year we were the 4th biggest customer in export terms for German engineered products , you can always make less product but instantly your own exports And economy just shrank ....the German folks are going to be laying off and etc etc what may happen here will also. E going on over there too.
Canada has (and Japan in future) a bespoke sector by sector trade deal with no Freedom of Movement and no ECJ. Ditto the 60 other nations (most tiny) with similar arrangements. Arrangements such as EEA are not of interest to me as they are too restrictive. In addition the EU has agreements with various countries to allow quotas of named goods to be imported WTO tariff free - eg New Zealand lamb. All of these are bespoke and free of budget contributions or the need to provide free uncontrolled access to our economy for EU citizens.
Now IMO the EU doesn't have the organisation or dynamism to agree such things quickly (despite rumours of Junker proposing to "streamline" the process in a speech later this month). As such we should crack on with a clean break and the same trade deal the EU's largest counterparts use (ie WTO) until such a time as they get their act together.
Brexit Dept. Numerous quotes / interviews from last year from Davies, Gove etc. Our Brussels negotiating team comprises 100 people vs EU's 60 for example
somehow we managed that under the yoke of the oppressive EU.
We would have done better outside (IMO) AND the EU is heading further and further in the Superstate direction. We needed to break free in what was a once in a lifetime opportunity.
Secondly I wonder what the Eu would do there's going to be a big hole in their coffers if they don't get their money but eventually Germany and France and the other 25 "solidarity for Europe" countries are going to be thinking we are financially losing here as individual countries and it will be every man for himself
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39064795
German Budget Surplus is 2.5/3x the UK contribution at the moment. Does that put into perspective the EU budget perspective?
Brexit Dept. Numerous quotes / interviews from last year from Davies, Gove etc. Our Brussels negotiating team comprises 100 people vs EU's 60 for example
Different thing that people stampeding over each other to get jobs there, any idea how many legal experts are looking over the current raft of EU/UK regulations?
How many vacancies are there and honestly does anyone believe Davies or Gove these days?? They have such a track record for honesty.
We would have done better outside (IMO)
in your opinion, but britain was on it's arse before we joined.
the EU is heading further and further in the Superstate direction.
which is a bad thing because?...
It's based on the flawed idea of a common currency
Of course that WAS not our problem
if you take away member state's individual control over fiscal policy you eliminate ( many of ) the problems associated with the euro.
And increase the distance between individuals and those who are supposed to serve them.
"German Budget Surplus" exactly German budget surplus, not the entire 27 of which Merkel said the 24bn is nothing and the Eu are rather pissed they have all this money to them selves, but gloss over (edit avoid fines) somehow that its more than the EU rules set at 60% ,see the pattern they look after NO1, the figures I have here show a gbp contribution of 19bn and the German surplus being the same?
You need fiscal union which requires political union which is against the wishes of many including many supposedly pro Europeans
To pay for this, the EU had an agreed budget of €143 billion for the year 2014, representing around 1% of the EU-28's gross national income (GNI).[2] Prior to 2014, the EU had a budget of €864.3 billion for the period 2007–2013, representing 1.05% of the EU-27's GNI for the period.[3]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_of_the_European_Union
Point being the EU budget is 1% of the EU income. It's a tiny tiny amount in reality. The EU will miss the UK's money but maybe not it's petulance and in out objections and veto.
Our Brussels negotiating team comprises 100 people vs EU's 60 for example
Surprised they bothered with 60- we have so little leverage!
I wonder what the Eu would do there's going to be a big hole in their coffers
EU have got their next funding cycle sorted thanks to our 50bn exit bill! (tho I still reckon it'll be nearer 40- that's just the Times softening us up)
For jambalaya to sing:
I want to break free
I want to break free
I want to break free from your lies
You're so self satisfied I don't need you
I've got to break free
God knows, God knows I want to break free
I've fallen in love
I've fallen in love for the first time
And this time I know it's for real
I've fallen in love yeah
God knows God knows I've fallen in love
It's strange but it's true
I can't get over the way you love me like you do
But I have to be sure
When I walk out that door
Oh how I want to be free baby
Oh how I want to be free
Oh how I want to break free
But life still goes on
I can't get used to living without living without
Living without you by my side
I don't want to live alone hey
God knows got to make it on my own
So baby can't you see
I've got to break free
I've got to break free
I want to break free yeah
I want, I want, I want, I want to break free 😉
teamhurtmore - Member
You need fiscal union which requires political union which is against the wishes of many including many supposedly pro Europeans
Yep, that's what sorts the Euro most easily. Though I could happily live with a single European state - find it difficult to get worked up about it, but done right it could be excellent.
[url= http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-michel-barnier-silly-brexit-negotiations-andrew-marr-a7926766.html ]Daves charm offensive continues[/url]
🙄
The Indy does a brilliant job at misrepresenting the tone of DD in his Marr interview - do they have an agenda?
A newspaper? With an agenda? Whatever next?
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Who would have thought the Brexit Bulldog would need a paper to make him look bad...
Binners by the looks.of things. It was one of his (surprisingly) better performances this morning
(Apart from his weird chewing mannerism which looks v odd)