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No wonder EU exporters are starting to squeal
@igm I'd be willing to bet I will not ! I was an EU fan 15-20 years ago, it's gone badly off the rails and is accelerating downwards. I would be in favour of a NAFTA style free trade zone, with no freedom of movement and no budget, no parliament just civil servants seconded by member nations.
One pound bet? It ain't going to cost either of us much if we use pounds 😉
You're mate Donald doesn't seem to like NAFTA much - blaming it for trashing US jobs (he's lying of course but...)
Provided we have the four freedoms, the rest of the deal (subsidies etc) I can live without. Freedom of movement of labour is good for my children.
Which is a similar rate to 2009. Did the UK fall apart in 2010 or 11 ? Seek an IMF bailout ?
@igm if you wish although to win the bet I could just keep my "re join the EU" campaign off the forum 😉 surely you havn't missed how hostile I am to the EU, its very very hard for me to imagine a scenario where I became "pro"
EU are asking for meaningful negotiation
Barnier is totally restricted in his ability to negotiate as his mandate from the EU Parliament is so restrictive - he pretty much said as much himself and Davies has pointed this out. The EU are basically asking us to agree with them. The EU have published nothing on Irish border or any legal "financial settlement" nor indeed a figure (although that's doffocult as they intend to just keep adding to it in the future whuch is why they want a "process" agreed not an amount)
Jamba - parity or £ below € is being predicted. Let's see what happens.
On the bet , I am well aware how opposed you are but a) you explained why off forum and you are going to be disappointed, b) you're fickle (in my opinion) and c) you won't keep it off forum (assuming the forum and your participation in it survives Brexit, should Brexit occur) because you're as much of a loud mouth as me.
£1. Keep in touch. (But it won't buy either of us much)
You'll get 86 cents at Southampton airport, although that's as much down to the rip off money changers as brexitThomas Cook are currently offering 1 euro 6 cents to the pound
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41097401
Scottish skiing bookings rise 600% leading Wee Nippy (remember her?) to argue that she was a quitter all along. Snow melts the text day, and she reverts to blowing with the wind.
You'll get 86 cents at Southampton airport, although that's as much down to the rip off money changers as brexit
Hmm, shall we....? 😉
@igm yup I agree we'll see a test of parity or below. That's how the fx markets work. I am trying to time bringing my pension investments back into the UK/£ from the $ / Asian currencies. My wife (herself an asset mgr) is looking to bring her $ pension investments into £, she hates the € too btw
We all hate the € (save perhaps Edukator)
By asset manager I assume you mean funds not real assets - I used to train folk in managing real assets.
Timing the repatriation of your overseas slush fund? 😉
Well as THM and I discussed some time ago, if the markets are working properly buying specifics might work, but given the outside UK earnings of a lot of UK companies a general shift won't make much difference. I'd keep them in healthier countries.
I would be in favour of a NAFTA style free trade zone, with no freedom of movement
Hmm. So let's talk freedom of movement.
[b]Positives[/b]
1. Businesses can get cheap labour
2. People from poorer countries can get decent jobs and money
3. People can escape places where prospects are poor and have more choice for good prospects
4. People can experience different countries and broaden their outlook
5. Money can flow into poorer countries
[b]Negatives[/b]
6. Possible brain drain for poorer countries
7. Possible money drain for richer countries
Point 7 seems to have been debunked though, as this seems not to happen. Immigration seems to grow an economy. So we're left with point 6 as a possible downside.
Am I right?
She managed funds of funds and funds containing assets such as bonds and equities. Outside her professional career she manages (part time) family real estate, commercial and residential in Paris.
Moly - let's take it to its illogical extreme.
Folk from Hull should be banned from taking good jobs in London without first getting a London work permit. Don't want them to be a drain on the budgets of London LAs
Just money then really, not the interesting stuff Jamba.
Come try the stuff that matters sometimes. Focuses the mind when if you get it wrong, losing millions is the least of your worries.
@molgrips freedom of movement undermines wages and working conditions. Trying to protect them via in country legislation is pointless as people just come and work locally but are paid by the out of country contractor at out of country rates. See Macron's viist to Eastern Europe this week where he has been trying to reduce this, France has a particular issue with Polish companies doing this. Remember Ryan Air did this too with their maintainence facility in Marseilles (now shut down).
You'll get 86 cents at Southampton airport
In terms of holiday money we all know you'll get dicked at the airport but Thomas Cook are generally decent rates for exchanging before hand, we're basically at parity already.
And the trend is only going in one direction.
And I can't see our strong and stable government doing anything about it other than devalue the pound further.
No IGM
1. Companies that delivery goods and services
2. (Ok the financing of 1)
3. Fixed assets
All v interesting and hard to do. A v bright lady
(Jamba pls keep,me in touch rebturning point in Fr property 😉 )
jambalaya - Member
@molgrips freedom of movement undermines wages and working conditions.
For Britain at least this has been substantially disproven.
In fact it stimulates the economy and increases the number of jobs available.
However I agree it limits the ability of certain specific workers to impose overly high prices on the marketplace
jambalaya - Member
@molgrips freedom of movement undermines wages and working conditions.
It doesn't, but you know that mol?
[Now 1 / 1.09 ish is......? Oh forget it ]
THM - not saying she isn't bright or hardworking. Just suggesting that if when you get it wrong people die, then it focuses the mind. We also loose not insignificant sums of cash when we get it wrong, but that's easier (not easy) to live with.
I missed your edit - the original was a little rude and from personal experience off the mark as I have met Mrs J 😉
For Britain at least this has been substantially disproven.
A point which has been made over and over again to the oft-repeated (or as a professional would term it, "compulsive") lie.
THM - I'm a terrible writer, always have been. I thought it was rude too.
But I like to think I'm a better editor.
PS - I do as someone once said hate being rude accidentally.
The stupid new fonts don't help either especîally with apple autocorrect and weakening eyesight 😉
I post, and then edit, every time. I can't really read what I'm typing on this iPad with the new STW site, and using the preview functiion is pointless as well (preview is under the iPad keyboard).
The EU immigrants undermining wages thing has long since been debunked as a myth, right?
Anecdote alert !....
Got a plasterer ( mate of my brother) in to do some work last year at time of referendum, (I'll do every DIY job bar that - im shit at it!)
He was adamant the polish guys were undercutting him and cheating the system.... then insisted we pay cash in hand, because he didn't want to go over his tax threshold that year
We got into a bit of an argument about Brexit
He unfriended me on Facebook when I sent him something like this...
http://specfinish.co.uk/plasterers-top-skills-shortage-list/
But then sent me a message saying he was still available if we needed any more plastering !
Fwiw had a very similar argument with my brother he's an electrician and refused to believe electricians were on UK skilled worker shortage list , but he hasn't fb unfriended me & also doesn't charge me for work
Annecdote time again...
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41119355
Sales of vacuum cleaners producing more noise and heat than suction are banned under EU rules from today.
Vacuum cleaners using more than 900 watts and emitting more than 80 decibels are no longer allowed in Europe's shops.
Some anti-EU campaigners say homes won't be properly cleaned if people have to buy lower wattage machines.
But energy experts say the best low-power appliances clean just as well as high-wattage machines.
They say some manufacturers deliberately increased the amount of electricity their appliances use because shoppers equate high-wattage with high performance.
The EU's own website says: "With more efficient vacuum cleaners, Europe as a whole can save up to 20 TWh of electricity per year by 2020.
"This is equivalent to the annual household electricity consumption of Belgium. It also means over 6 million tonnes of CO2 will not be emitted - about the annual emissions of eight medium-sized power plants."
There we go again the EU stopping us having a super turbo charged bag of useless parts, saving us money and halping the environment. I'm so glad they are more than a trading organisation and are taking this sort of stuff seriously.
freedom of movement undermines wages and working conditions
Surely quite the opposite? The less restrictions on labour movement the more the ability for the workforce to find appropriate work and conditions.
Some anti-EU campaigners say homes won't be properly cleaned if people have to buy lower wattage machines
Brilliant.
One of my mates who works for a large recreational clothes company says generally the Polish are thieves so they have checks in the distribution centre upon leaving.
Yeah, so if it was 100% indigenous workforce there wouldn't be any theft?
Brexit's underbelly is built on veiled logic like this.
It's less a type of rascim though and more an insecurity I believe, which does breed rascim.
FT reporting large outflows from European funds due to concerns over pain of stronger Euro!!
They are hearing the sqealing I referred to yesterday ^
I liked this one
Where angry leave voters are surprised how complicated Brexit has turned out to be
https://www.ft.com/content/a9439086-8e4d-11e7-a352-e46f43c5825d
Who could've guessed !
Having indirectly maligned Guy Verhofstadt yesterday (and before), time for a small slice of humble pie today. His article in the The Brexshit Bugle (of all places) today is well written and well argued. His second paragraph outlining how we have enjoyed a unique and flexible relationship with the EU is a great, short summary and gives some valuable context on how they view us!!
Blimey, I am in line with Verhofstadt!!! Can't be labelled a closet Brexshiteer now 😉 !!
Have you had a pint of what he was having? 😉 Or was that Barnier? I forget who the Mail told me was a jakey.
Joking aside, the EU side appear to be using one of the best documented tactics in negotiation. Say what you actually want up front, don't do any meet you halfway stuff and keep repeating your intial position. Provided you are happy with what you said you want and you are willing to walk away without a deal, it's very effective. Try it in a garage sometime.
freedom of movement undermines wages and working conditions
First prove it.
Second, why are wage rises higher in Germany, which has more migration, than in the UK?
They are pros at winning the media war - hence, Verhofstadt in the Torygraph, being reasonable. It's masterful strategic communications including impressive suppression of dissent.
In contrast, we amplify dissent and discord through our media and make a shambles of controlling the narrative and the media. We are losing the media war badly, in fact probably lost it. Even Corbyn knows how to do this, but the Tories are looking very amateurish here.
The Gobshite Gazette is probably the worst example. Having Osbournes personal vendetta thrust in your face every evening is sickening, but I do have to kill 15 mons on tube!!
Ah, I've worked out the negotiation strategy. I know it's the Daily Mash but to be honest it's difficult to tell real news from satire now...
[url= http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/alastair-campbell-we-are-leaving-ok-en-meme-temps-maybe-we-won-t-1-5174615 ]Maybe we will, maybe we won't. [/url]
I see disgraced former defence minister Liam Fox (to use his ful title)
is throwing a tantrum and blaming the EU for brexishambles
[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41119870 ]'its blackmail!'[/url]
Nothing like accusing people of blackmail to make them feel better disposed towards you, not.
Meanwhile people in Euroland sit around sipping good wine, enjoying good banter and looking forward to the next provocative outrageous outburst from the ***** in London to provide some laughs.
Cost of saving our £8bn EU club subs calculated at £25bn - up to you how you interpret it.
[url= http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-customs-union-theresa-may-urged-tory-labour-mps-stay-membership-latest-a7922941.html ]Independent [/url]
And Bloomberg (possibly a more disinterested news source?) have a commentary drawing an interesting parallel.
[url= https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-01/brexit-constructive-ambiguity-backfires-in-greek-saga-redux?utm_campaign=pol&utm_medium=bd&utm_source=applenews ]Bloomberg[/url]
Edukator - Reformed TrollMeanwhile people in Euroland sit around sipping good wine, enjoying good banter and looking forward to the next provocative outrageous outburst from the ***** in London to provide some laughs.
Really?
That's surprising considering that:
Brexit is of no further interest on this side of the channel.
Imagine how the fold would react if your incessant jingoism was coming from the other side of the fence. 💡
You're one of the fervent Brexiters who've never stopped expressing your enthusiasm, Turnerguy.
On my facebook wall before the vote I had about a 50/50 split of articles for and against brexit - in the end I was unable to vote because I didn't do postal vote and a storm that night disrupted trains from Waterloo so I couldn't get back in time.
However I was going to vote to stay, succumbing to the same pathetic short-termism as most of the rest of people on this post display.
The content of TTIP, as shown by the leaks from Greenpeace, and the EUs subsequent actions to make it more private, and also Corbyns prior arguments against the EU were enough to persuade me that the correct answer was out though. No influence from the usual clowns, although maybe some of Moogs comments seemed valid.
And Corbyn has the view that workers conditions here have suffered from EU immigration :
It's funny how most of you guys are such fans of Corbyn but ignore everything he has said about your beloved EU and even try to ignore his desire for a hard brexit, which notably he grasped at the first opportunity, declaring that he has to respect the democratic process even though the margin was so close and the campaign was full of so much mis-information as to easily be considered grossly flawed.
Can you explain why he was so wrong about what he said about the EU, and why you are so right ?
Hmm. So let's talk freedom of movement.
Positives
1. Businesses can get cheap labour
i always wonder why this is good for the cheap labour, or are they lucky to have a job?
However I was going to vote to stay,
TurnerGuy - Member
this stupid and trivial thing over child benefits is enough for me to say we should leave.
Even if the UK has to pay child benefit to children in other countries, why should it not be indexed to the cost of living of the country the children are in ?
Seems eminently sensible to me.
Posted 1 year ago # Report-Post
Your first "out" post on this thread I think, followed up by a consistent "out" discours.
Edukator the EU have made it quite clear how they feel via the words of numerous MEPs and Commisioners. As the Soectator piece said seem to revel in being insulting.
We don't need any favours from the EU. They have taken an agressive stance to try and extort money from us we do bo owe
As I posted way back ts time to walk away amd focus globally where the real opportunities lie.
You're accusing the EU of taking an agressive stance, Jamba. Now take a look at the headlines of the Tory press over the last two years and indeed your own posts on this thread over the past year.
A non-stop series of insults, hate, lies, damned lies, mistruths, distortions, inventions, go whistle, we'll have our cake and eat .. and you reckon the EU negotiators are agressive. Just another insulting distortion of reality.
Your first "out" post on this thread I think, followed up by a consistent "out" discours.
so what if that was my first out post ? Doesn't invalidate anything.
Find me a racist brexit one then, if you want a challange.
And explain why Corbyn was so wrong and you are so right about the EU ?
Sbob 😀 a good pawn or Ed scored a spectacular own goal - not sure which!?!
Edukator - "if" the Goldman expletive of Euroland are happy now, they won't be if the euro keeps strenghtening. They need that like a hole in the head. But the ECB will probably came them down soon after Draghis slip up recently
Meanwhile people in Euroland sit around sipping good wine, enjoying good banter and looking forward to the next provocative outrageous outburst from the ***** in London to p
Edukator you have been consistently agressive in your attitude towards thr UK and Leave voters. Tou proposed a "buyers strike" by Remainers to try and damage the UK econony. To be honest its the sort of artifude which makes us glad we are Leaving. Just remember you are living in a country with 9.75% unemployment and a social security system mired in a past which is NEVER coming back. The two things are related. The UK is not at all interested in the EU superstate process, neither was France when they voted against it in a Referendum but got it anyway via the back door. That's why 35% of you voted for Le Pen.
You'd be best served thinking about hiw you will plug the EU busget hole of €10bn pa once the UK leaves and what you are going to do about the €70bn gift you've made to Greece
Returning to the buyers strike Edukator it's the Leavers who where by far the most motivated during the Referendum. God forbid there was such an escalation Remoaners would be (according to you) cutting back and having a miserable life whilst we Leavers would be drinking Aussie amd Kiwi wine, UK fizz and enjoying the very broad range of produce available from the reat of the world, cars included.
Our exports to the "EU" are artificially inflated by the Rotterdam effect where products are routed through the EU as we are members to other markets but actually there is no need to do so.
the Goldman expletive
Who? You need to provide a link because I don't know what you're on about again despite watching news channels.
£/€ indeed TMH. Those German cars just got even more exoensive. A further 24% relative price swing between Germany/France and Japan if we have WTO with Europe amd free trade with Japan will be very painful
The Swiss have been trying very hard to hold the value of their currency down (Chineese do the same). The Brits are letting the £ move as they know its works to our advantage discouraging imports and favouring exporters
@crazy the negotiation strategy is simple. We are not going to cave into the extortion demand
As I posted way back ts time to walk away amd focus globally where the real opportunities lie.
aaahh so thats UKs the plan, let the negotiations collapse in a himilating shambles, blaming the EU & unpatriotic remoaners
thus lulling the ROW into a false sense of security, when secretly we are not hopless at negotiating deals & we will them pwn them with our wily negotiating skills.
EU busget hole of €10bn pa once the UK leaves
jambafact
German Xs were already falling (to UK) before devaluation, hence the disquiet of their version of the CBI
But as before a weaker pound is a mixed blessing - plus the different price elasticities of demand means that the +ve benefits for our trade balance are likely to be limited whereas the immediate hit to inflation and real wages is more apparent and quicker to feed through. Hence the dilemma for BoE re interest rates. They need to go up but it will kill people on low wages. Trapped!!!
Edukator you have been consistently agressive in your attitude towards thr UK and Leave voters
Leavers but not the UK.
That's why 35% of you voted for Le Pen.
That's somewhat less than the number voting for a far more extreme Tory party.
You'd be best served thinking about hiw you will plug the EU busget hole of €10bn pa once the UK leaves
With the same level of contribution Norway and Switzerland pay for access.
Remoaners would be (according to you) cutting back and having a miserable life
Cutting back and saving for the hard times Brexit will bring.
Our exports to the "EU" are artificially inflated by the Rotterdam effect where products are routed through the EU as we are members to other markets but actually there is no need to do so.
It's efficient logistics that mean companies trade through Rotterdam. Trading direct will mean losing economies of scale and increase costs to both importers and exporters thus reducing efficiency. Now there is something to include in negotiations, what happens to goods transiting via the EU post Brexit. The question of gas pipeline deliveries needs to be raised to and North Sea oil. Lots to negotiate once the UK has agreed to pay off its debts.
That's why 35% of you voted for Le Pen.
wasnt it 13%?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/12/french-parliamentary-elections-emmanuel-macron-low-turnout
jambafact?
...for a far more extreme Tory party.
You are a card 😉
Well even Marine didn't promise dismantling the health service or leaving the EU. Read her manifesto, it's mild stuff compared with what the Tories have done in the last 38 years. In fact it's somewhat left of what Tony Blair and co. did. I voted Macron Edit: I also voted Hamon as I had a procuration and was asked to vote Hamon.
Edukator - Reformed Troll
Personally I'd say not so reformed today
We are not going to cave into the extortion demand
How is the negotiations for aircraft access and landing coming along? How about pharmacuticals? etc.
I'm waiting to hear why Corbyn was so wrong in his protestations ?
Or alternatively, why is it OK for Corbyn to hold those views, but not OK for me ?
You're struggling today aren't you, Jambalya. You're down to accusing me of trolling when I'm playing absolutely straight. You just don't seem to realise what a mess Brexit has created and the impossibility of negotiating something better from outside the EU.
Why are you so keen we should suddenly become Corbyn fans, Turnerguy. I read his CV and it was so bad I decided that three posts was three too many on the Corbyn thread. He represents members of the Labour party but he makes that party unattractive to people who consider themselves leftward leaning. Like Kinnock, he is the Tory party's strongest best asset. On Brexit he is simply Tory party bis..
*anticipates reply and hunts out panniers to put on the bike for a shopping trip*
The Tories aren't dismanteling the NHS. What they'd like to do is make it more like the French system and better integrate it wirh the private sector. As for the EU Le Pen promised a referendum. Remeber you voted against the EU constitution in your referendum but got it anyway
when I'm playing absolutely straight
You are on a roll today!! 😀
when I'm playing absolutely straightYou are on a roll today!!
he's like one of those delusional contestants on the X-Factor that can't sing a note but think they are going to be a star - there's a condition for that but I can't think of the name. Crossed with those permanently angry leftie student types that are alway in the student bar shouting and banging on the counter to get their point across...
As for the EU Le Pen promised a referendum.
Knowing full well that there's no popular support for it, and what support there was is falling away as people see what a mess Brexit is turning out to be. Like promising a referendum on banning the sale of Brioche. Blair promised a referendum too, and he had a similar relationship with the truth to Marine. Cameron is too honest for the good of the country.
What's the collective noun for trolls?
A "remoan"
The weakness of the UKs position now fully exposed as disgraced former defense secretary Fox cries 'blackmail'
Davis signed up to the EUs schedule on day 1 and then spent the last 2 months complaining it wasn't fair we can't talk about other stuff
May has thrown away her mandate
Johnson pops up now and again to say something that contradicts the government's position, then is carted of again
Is there another team of competent Brexiters we could substitute them for?
Nope - if they were competent they wouldn't be Brexies 😉
what do your think civil servants are for?
The musketeers (and May) are largely ceremonial. The real work is done behind the scene
The musketeers (and May) are largely ceremonial. The real work is done behind the scene
ahh the ceremonial duties of riling up the press and pissing off their counterparts in the EU
teamhurtmore - Member
what do your think civil servants are for?
I know one of them. Nice lad, clearly bright, but young, inexperienced and in a surprisingly senior position.
what do your think civil servants are for?
i was talking to a mate who's working as a consultant for a large, very important government department that is going to be hugely impacted by Brexit. He says the amount of work they're going to have to do is absolutely enormous.
And to quote him directly, to cover this work, they've recruited 'the wrong people, with the wrong qualifications and skills, working on the wrong projects'
His prediction is that we're going to end up spending billions on non-working, misguided IT white elephants, while the rudimentary basic stuff gets ignored until its too late.
As it stands at the moment, nobody can do much anyway, as their is a total absence of leadership or direction, and absolutely no idea what they are actually trying to achieve
Still... I'm sure it'll all be fine
Anyone know what proportion of civils servants are remainers?
37.6%
Anyone know what proportion of civils servants are remainers?
Pretty obvious that the great majority will be remainers.
78.98452839%.
Approximately.
😀
Gideons Gobshite was struggling tonight - it managed a half page on "brexit price slump (no, really) hits third of London homes" despite the fact that market was slowing well before the vote but then had the challenge of what to do with the unexpectedly strong PMI data - oops doesn't fit the narrative - but they eecked out "output races ahead as industry [b]scorns Brexshit[/b]".
Old George really had to work to spin that one and not a bad effort in the end!!!!
And was going on about Labour being the soft-brexit party - let's wait until Corbyn and MaccyD use that phrase without transitional being mentioned anyway - as transitional can be a couple of months...
as transitional can be a couple of months...
Or a decade !
Here's hoping