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Pigface; reported for bullying.
Ducky 😆
ducky
Pig face reported twice 😉
Sorry left the thread open!! As you were...
Guess I will be in the big house for at least 2 months this time 😯
teamhurtmore - Member
One final point - the IMF revised down U.K. growth this morning by several basis points. That's correct, several, actual basis points.Make of that, what you will....
Still zero positive news about Brexit being great for the UK?
Just turned on the radio to hear that IMF forecast says the opposite
I think we've all had enough of these experts telling us what will happen.
Looks like the sick man of Europe is making a comeback.
Make of that, what you will....
That when talking about THE WHOLE ECONOMY, small percentages can mean a large amount?
1.7% is a lot less than 2% when referring to GDP growth?
What have they said they expect for the rEU countries? Have they revised that downwards as well?
Sorry to blow the froth off the coffee but the IMF is saying that 2017 UK growth will be 1.7% in 2017 versus 1.8% in 2016 and v 1.5% for France and 1.8% for Germany (2017). Hardly tin hat time!
Their forecast also confirm my observations about different points in the cycle. The UK and EU both forecast to slow in 2018 but at different rates. UK underperforming the EU at both data points (i.e. 2017 and 2018 year end). All well known or should be - even the Tories know that
It said "weaker-than-expected activity" in the first three months of the year meant the UK would grow by 1.7%, compared with an earlier 2% forecast.
Or the UK was on for a 2% growth but has been taken back to 1.7% - about a 15% drop.
Their forecast also confirm my observations about different points in the cycle.
So the IMF missed your observations and predictions and don't understand cycles?
No. Not at all. Perspective mike, perspective...
Have a good day
To be fair to THM, the EU has brought us, for example, unemployment of 3% - that's only going one way. So yes we are at the top of the cycle and as we leave the EU we will be falling off that peak.
So as he says the cyclical effects and the Brexit effects will be additive.
Agreed THM or am I extrapolating and putting too many words in your mouth?
What it means is tory supporters are so wilfully blind they will make up all sorts of rubbish to "prove" that the tories are not making a huge mess of the economy
the facts are:
Growth down
Inflation up
Deficit up
Balance of payments deficit up
Inward investment down
All very bad news indeed. Its not cyclical its stuctural and being made worse by fake austerity and leaving the EU
Plenty of perspective the 2 major economies in the world that have made stupid political decisions are now suffering a downgrade in forecasts.
Anyway still waiting for the Brexipositives.
For instance a positive would be growth exceeding forecasts, big investments, deals with the EU?
Are we all doomed then or is it just the end of the world?
Apparently if we stay in the EU we'll all become slaves (to the EU rythum) but if we leave we'll become poor, depressed n everyone in the EU will hate us. Now come on you lot which is it! Could we have hard or soft EU slavery or Cliff edge EU hating us or a gentle transition period of hate till the EU just does not like us very much (not hates though).
As yet there has been no definitive answer, why can't we have some people on the thread who know what they are talking about? We should ban all this opinionated rubbish backed up by whatever media prattle backs their own (confirmation) bias.
Mean while its all looking ticker t boo in Yorkshire.
IGM broadly yes - thx, but extrapolating too far by linking natural peak to Brexshit
Looking at the graphs of UK v EU GDP growth in front of me now. Consistent trend other than 2011-2013 when UK did not dip in the way that the EU did. We flatlined - remember? The EU then accelerated their version of stealing later and their cycles turned and accelerated from a lower base. Since then moved broadly in line. But we are further down the cycle and will peak earlier (now). Brexit is additive true but not the main driver. But perspective is required to appreciate that.
mt - you're in the wrong bit of Yorkshire if you think it's all ticketyboo
Brexit is additive true but not the main driver. But perspective is required to appreciate that.
Which is broadly the point, at a bad time the UK is inflicting pain on itself, mostly at a time when it could least afford to.
Again as this goes on how much more will people put up with what is going on?
You still might want to continue to believe this is a one way street but without any sign of good news there is still trouble ahead
There is indeed. The outlook for the U.K. is weakening and Brexshit is a negative. True.
Hence we need to minimise the risks, keep perspective and work towards solutions. Making wildly inaccurate accusations is not part of this.
With the realisation that a substantial transition period will be required progress is being made.
There's an engineering theorem called superposition (others may well use it too) which is a great way of isolating and explaining one effect when there are umpteen things going on - as there often are in engineering.
However it only works when effects don't affect each other - typically that means linear systems (though there are a few things at the margins.
The question is wandering round the back of my mind THM - are Brexit and economic cycles truly separate, in which case you can make the argument you espouse, or might Brexit affect the economic cycle in some way, in which case you can't?
Now in the second case that still doesn't tell you that it's better or worse - just that your steady state model may not work.
My suspicion is that there is interplay because humans are involved and that will create a feedback loop at the micro-rational level (ration to individuals but not to society as a whole).
That is one reason that in a consumer led economy, the macro rational response to June 23 would have been to batten down the hatches and a fall in GDP might be expected, but for individuals spending now prior to price rises (and particularly in times of low interest rates) led to a GDP rise.
My suspicion is that folks forecasting economies might need new tools to cope with non-steady state situations and may need non-rational, behaviourist based thinking.
But this is just stream of consciousness stuff and I'm probably 20 years behind the thinking.
Hence we need to minimise the risks, keep perspective and work towards solutions. Making wildly inaccurate accusations is not part of this.
Or up the ante and make Brexit untenable
Or actually see the reality, understand what is happening and keep the pressure on the tories to reverse their stupid and dangerous policies?
No they are not separate clearly. But understanding how they interact is important. The wilder statement made by remoaners are detached from reality and understanding
The UK and US economies are at relatively mature stages in their economic cycles than the EU. They bottomed at different times and peak at different times. Nothing surprising there.
So far Brexshit has had an impact of £ - mixed but IMO negative on balance - and uncertainty - negative. The consumer has carried on with what he/she does best. Perhaps they haven't noticed Brexshit yet or alternatively going out with a bang!!!
@igm "mt - you're in the wrong bit of Yorkshire if you think it's all ticketyboo"
Funny that, was just trying to sound positive and cheery in an un-Yorkshire like way. Given the perpetual moaning and crap spouted on this thread, thought a little bit of hope would be nice.
Free Yorkshire! An it better be cheap.
we could all be positive - yes MT do they 100 foot Red Bull Gap jump we KNOW YOU CAN DO IT
Happy now or do you want some more realism in the optimism?
Perhaps they haven't noticed Brexshit yet or alternatively going out with a bang!!!
Probably a bit of both. My wife works in marketing and would tell you some very interesting things about how consumers react to an impending or actual fall in living standards. Affordable luxury is a fantastic concept.
The consumer has carried on with what he/she does best. Perhaps they haven't noticed Brexshit yet or alternatively going out with a bang!!!
Or look at the item you posted a few pages back, savings down. So rather than save money it is being spent, that can only go on so long.
I see the Micky taking continues with "have a nice day", "blow the froth off your coffee", "remoaning" (despite a polite moderator suggestion to desist) and something that looks French.
Growth has held up better than expected because consumers have maintained their lifestyles with borrowing and burning savings. The cost of living has gone up with the fall in the pound as a major cause and people have failed to adjust their spending. The result is a fall in the savings rate which history tells us is highly likely to signal the next recession.
Check out the [url= https://www.fathom-consulting.com/newsletters/odds-uk-recession-now-greater-even/ ]graph.[/url]
As yet there has been no definitive answer, why can't we have some people on the thread who know what they are talking about?
Cos no-one knows. We've voted for this thing based on rhetoric and some extremely shaky thinking, and no-one knows how it'll turn out. We're speeding through the darkness without headlights.
Ask 3 economists get 3 different answers - however on this topic the economic analysis is generally in the same direction. the UK economy is heading for the rocks and leaving the EU makes it much worse. All economic indicators are pointing down
On the contrary - take today's IMF revision. The UK is forecast to slow - no surprise - and yet, grow only slightly slower than Germany in 2018 and faster than Italy. The IMF also forecast that the UK will grow faster than France this year.
How many headlines about German heading for the rocks?
Wild exaggeration - nothing more. Perspective and truth obviously a forlorn hope
something that looks French.
The irony is too delicious to be true. Merci, mon brave....
Have the revised down Germany?
Unless you are a tory of course when you will select data and spin the answers so the blame is not laid at the feet of your masters. Multiple links on this thread from me showing just how bad the economic indicators are.
no they revised Germany up by a massive 100bp from our car crash level of 1.5% to a heady 1.6%.
Hold the headlines....
So you have worked out where the story is. UK and US over estimated
Germany predicted correctly, this would be why it's actually being reported as something interesting.
Either the models missed something or something has changed.
Yes thanks I read their uodate this morning
It's very telling that even the ardent Brexiteers out there have changed their tune from "we're taking back control" to "But we voted leave, the will of the people etc..." or "for richer or poorer, we voted leave" (both attributable to Nigel Farage).
The slightly less mental wing of the conservative party realises that if they make everyone poorer - which they will if we can't trade on current terms with our European partners, 26 miles away from our shores, then the conservatives will be electoral poison for a long time yet. The work done by Cameron and Osborne to detoxify the party [url= https://www.ft.com/content/cdb3bd54-1845-11e0-88c9-00144feab49a ]as reported in the FT [/url] will all be for nought.
Don't discount the fact that the Conservatives have had mixed fortunes at the ballot box since 1987 and haven't been able to reach those dizzying heights of a clear commons majority since. Four-fifths of the British printed media are pro-Tory, but even the combined might of Murdoch, Dacre and Desmond couldn't deliver the landslide promised for June 2017. Reduced electoral turnouts since then (even in 2017, the turnout was only 69%) have pointed towards voter apathy, the Conservatives have misjudged the public mood towards austerity and messages have been very mixed - witness the debate about lifting the 1% pay cap for the public sector, the fallout over the so-called "Dementia Tax" and the frequent leaks describing cabinet division. Whether or not you agree that the Conservatives are in the midst of an existential crisis [url= https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/09/theresa-may-rejected-tory-detoxification-behind-this-mess ] as reported in the Guardian on June 9th[/url], decades of divisive policies and in fighting over the EU could well render them unelectable for a generation, especially if everyone ends up poorer as a result.
no they revised Germany up by a massive 100bp from our car crash level of 1.5% to a heady 1.6%.
Thats actually 10 bps. Better keep off the trading floor!
😳
Good spot. Sorry a massive 10 basis point change. Even less froth! A skinny latte...
Funny to read how the different papers are reporting the same news
Equally amazing that EU4U is reporting plans of several EU top private banks expanding in the Uk even in the regions.
"The attractiveness of London has been going up and I think the appeal is increasing (UBS)....London has grown at the expense of other European financial centres (Pictet)"
Equally amazing that EU4U is reporting plans of several EU top private banks expanding in the Uk even in the regions.
Anticipating deregulation and even more rich people arriving?
Half correct mol
[url= https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/24/us-chlorinated-chicken-not-ruled-out-by-no-10-in-pursuit-of-trade-deals ]oh yummy[/url]
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/little-substance-little-progress/
and brexitshambles rambles on to the UK becoming the 52nd state of the US.
£ back though 1:30 😀 more unmitigated "bad" news please 🙂
£ back though 1:30 more unmitigated "bad" news please
That is because a long period of transition is in the price, there cannot possibly be any other explanation.
Or removing the Trump effect.
£ at 1.23 CHF, down from 1.54 nov 2015. or 2.45 in Aug 07, up from its low of 1.19. and against the euro barely off its 7 year lows.
Sterling is doing really well, depends on how you want to cut it.
Where there is confusion and chaos there is an opportunity to make money if you have money to start with.
It's got SFA to do with IMF or Brexshit. Just having a giggle after that noise this morning
Gideon's Goshite still had the IMF slashers on the front page but amazingly still had time for some more measured analysis from Hamish McRae telling MPs to grow up to get through Brexshit. Well said that man.
Agreed mefty and hopefully that is where we are heading
Getting through Brexit isn't possible. It will be with us, or at least it's effects will, for a generation. Maybe longer.
Of course, it's a seismic event. Hence the need to avoid the nonsense as we negotiate how to make it work.
Of course, it's a seismic event. Hence the need to avoid the nonsense as we negotiate how to make it work.
Which when you haven't got a plan is not a great starting point.
True. So let's stop all the distraction and get down to the business at hand.
teamhurtmore - Member
True. So let's stop all the distraction and get down to the business at hand.
And there is the whole thing in a nutshell.
"Drilling holes through the hull of this boat will take longer if we don't just get on with it".
Utter ****ing madness.
Agreed mefty and hopefully that is where we are heading
I was being tongue in cheek actually as Remainers will no doubt argue it is about the recently reported acceptance by Cabinet of a longer transition.
Right now the business at hand is trying to prevent brexit. Still possible and not that hard.So let's stop all the distraction and get down to the business at hand.
That makes two of us - passes the time on a commute though!
A flaccid Brexshit Nick??
Interesting partly-related (to Brexit) article here on how unemployment figures in the UK are, well, inaccurate.
"More important, wages are not keeping pace with inflation. Here (below) is wage growth after inflation has been taken out. Workers' real incomes are actually in decline, which is weird because so-called full employment ought to be spurring wages upward. Overall inflation ought to be driven by wage inflation. Yet wage inflation isn't happening:
So what's going on?
Why does Britain have no wage inflation, if the labour market is so tight?
The answer is that unemployment is not really that low. In reality, about 21.5% of British workers are either officially unemployed, inactive, or employed part time even though they really want full-time work. (The ONS has a chapter on that here.) Some of those people — parents with newborns, university students — may not want jobs right now, but they will want jobs soon."
Labour and the Tories are indeed as one on Brexit, something postive to come out of the GE at least.
Barry Gardener the Shadow International Trade Secretary spells out here why we will leave the Customs Union. No Freedom of Movement, No Single Market, No Customs Union. The so called "Hard Brexit" which is in fact just Brexit.
For good measure he puts to bed the idea of a Norway style deal too
Gardiner told BBC Radio 4?s Westminster Hour that remaining in a customs union would leave the UK with an “asymmetrical relationship” with any other country the EU did a trade deal with.
“So the EU could do a deal with another country - let’s say America - which we would be bound by in the UK, we would have to accept the liberalisation of our markets, we would have to accept their goods coming into our markets on the terms agreed by Europe which could be prejudicial to us but we would not have the same access into America’s markets,” he said.
“We would be bound to try and negotiate it but why would America give us that access when it’s got all the liberalisation of our market that it wants. It’s a disaster.”
Gardiner also said the UK would become a “vassal state” of Brussels if it adopted a Norwegian style relationship with the EU.
“You actually end up paying money into the EU budget but you have less control over the regulations than you do now with a seat round the table,” he said.
Productivity - the uk's track record is crap, hence wage growth is too. Then we have the impact of £'s fall on inflation making the real growth even worse. Ntothing weird at all. What is weird is the idea that artificial floors are in some way an answer. Elastoplast anyone?
Jamba - as you know 80% of Labour's membership oppose leaving. And that article is more hyperbolic than some of your opinions. IMO of course. 😉
Actually Jamba, reading it closely, he's making a Dann fine case for not leaving the EU, isn't he.
“You actually end up paying money into the EU budget but you have less control over the regulations than you do now with a seat round the table,” he said.
Really? Who knew? Why did no-one say anything about this before the referendum?
They must hate their leader then??
Oh by the way Corbyn has spotted this one too (from Marr interview) ending Freedom of Movement will allow the UK to stop the
wholesale importation of underpaid workers from Central Europe”.
@igm Labour membership is just a fraction of their voters though. Ghe manifesto was pretty clear and in the past few days Corbyn and Gardiner have cleared things up further
nonsense! the manifesto contradicted itself! labour have done a great job of treading a fine line, never really committing to anything, in order to retain the votes of those coming back from ukip, and not alienate anyone who actually wants to stay in the eu. they never got properly quizzed on it, because no-one expected them to get anywhere, and the major reason they got anywhere, is because any remainer knew that a vote for the lib dems would split votes, so in order to give may and the tories a bloody nose, they voted labour.
landslide denied, mandate denied. that's part of the mission accomplished.
The result of the general election was caused by tactical voting to not deliver May's majority (150 predicted by jamba, a more modest but still massively optimistic and incorrect 80 predicted by mefty IIRC) & take away her mandate, causing the confusion we're seeing now. More delays. More bluster. Still crap negotiations. Voting for LibDens en masse was never going to happen (and won't any time soon). It was not due to Corbyn's (or his puppet master's) stance on Brexit, no matter how much zealots like jamba think the vote is a mandate for Brexit. For them, hanging (some of) their flags on Corbyn & McDonnel's wagon is yet more signs of their desperation in the face of what's coming. Corbin showed on Marr's show that he either doesn't understand the mechanisms of SM, CU etc (but then again, most Brexiteers don't either) or worse still, he was lying.
The GE was Round 1 in stymieing Brexit. There's plenty of time and more rounds to come yet. The "youth" will see through Corbyn eventually - he can't be "for the many" while decreasing the size of the pie he wants to slice more equally by leaving the single market. While it's a noble aim, it won't and cannot happen by leaving the single market. Pragmatism will out in the end....I dunno...maybe in around 7 years time.
Of course, it's a seismic event.
The irony of you posting this THM, after banging on about "keeping things in perspective" when others post similar.
Jamba is right… the current path can only be stuck to because Corbyn is seeking to make it a path free of (inter)party politics… covering the arses of those currently leading the Tory party. The only way to adjust (never mind change) the path is rebellions, in both parties, by people with guts. How many are keeping quiet 'till a crunch point is met, and how many have decided that the path is inevitable and will never get their party cards marked by risking party success… eyes on a post Brexit role in the next government?
Andrew Rawnsley highlighted an interesting new phrase that's doing the rounds among Phillip Hammonds acolytes as a likely outcome. The 'Hotel California' Brexit. You check out but you can never leave. In reference to an endless 'transitional phase', as even the most hardcore brexiteers acknoledge reality, and the colonial fantasy world they're living in
Still shit compared to what we had, but better than driving off a cliff
Taking Back Control eh? Brilliant!
A link to back up why I'm backing up Jamba as regards Labour's position…
That was written by the Shadow Trade Secretary.
incorrect 80 predicted by mefty IIRC
Yep, no problems admitting that, based my judgement on what I was seeing from a variety of sources which previously seem to have been more accurate indicators - but it is hardly scientific and that may have been happenstance. Called the Referendum wrong too, thought Remain would win but, at the time thought sadly not to be, but reasonably optimistic now.
As a remainder I'm getting more optimistic too.
Hard Brexit is disintegrating and there's a fair chance we won't leave.
Not celebration time yet, but...
Hard Brexshit never existed - it's a misnomer
Neither the Tories not Labour have been proposing it and May for one has always dismissed the idea.
Simply another case of exaggeration for effect
T
Ganesh wrote an interesting piece in FT today - a different perspective
Out of interest,, what is a remainder. - a residual left over from the main calculations? 😉
there's a fair chance we won't leave
Hmm yes but - not leaving would be more likely to be presented as an un-ending series of postponements, which would have basically the same effect, possibly even worse.
And if they do finally officially anounce they are giving up, a) a lot of stuff has already gone, and b) confidence will be shot, so we'll be a lesser partner in everything. And we'll lose our rebates.
The soft Brexit idea faces a problem beyond the soft Brexiters' control. European leaders didn't and don't want Brexit, but if there is to be a Brexit they are going to make sure that it doesn't put Britain in a more favourable competitive position than before.
European leaders have heard the "cake and eat it" idea. They know it means social and fiscal dumping to gain unfair advantage. you won't get 27 countries to sign up to a Brexit that allows that. A soft free Brexit isn't an optioon. The long term transition idea is also flawed at it isn't doesn't fit the timetable set out in the treaty of Lisbon and again would require the agreement of 27 countires. May's "Brexit means Brexit" is perhaps th emost accurate of her soundbites.
they are going to make sure that it doesn't put Britain in a more favourable competitive position than before
Yes, and despite what the papers and nutters will claim, this isn't vindictiveness - they have no choice.
Out of interest,, what is a remainder. - a residual left over from the main calculations?
Probability
Must remove the Freudian setting from my autocorrect
😀 I can't talk 😉 my failing eyesight and apple autocorrect on small screens is a recpie for bed seplling.
Yes, and despite what the papers and nutters will claim, this isn't vindictiveness - they have no choice
Def...have to protect the interests of the majority.
Donald Trump is praising Liam Fox this morning. So that's all good
Looks like we can look forward to a trade deal involving accepting chlorine washed chicken, hormone injected beef, GM crops, the opening up of the NHS to American healthcare companies, and god only knows what else
Hurray for Taking Back Control
[img] http://17909.cdx.c.ooyala.com/t2NTBuNzE65K5-xos_MUEiTX1MnC2RBo/promo303567522 [/img]
Looks like we can look forward to a trade deal involving accepting chlorine washed chicken, hormone injected beef, GM crops, the opening up of the NHS to American healthcare companies, and god only knows what else
Fast track desperation deals, winner winner probably not a chicken dinner.