[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

is everyone now content that the wheels are coming off and no more needs to be said?

don't think that means we won't get pushed off the cliff regardless...

i think we have all realised it would be as messy as we predicted and that we just need to wait a few months to see what happens next

Tory alliance with lab to stay in the market? Scotland or Wales vetoing it

May saying something different?
Labour divided by in fighting just as much a the Tories

All along we just need to see what th epublic mood is

Unlike jamby I think the more the fiacos ensues and the worse the news gets the more there will be a swing to some version of remain

I still do not think its done deal not least becaus ethey deal they will do will be acceptable to about the 15-25% of hardcore EU haterz/little englanders only

Most folk want a sort of cake and eat it settlement* so the only real issue is whether the politicians make it happen via Hof C defeats or the public modd changes to force them

Its also possible it just gets pushed through but I think that is the least likely

Possibly a GE on the issue never mind a referendum.

* we must reject the notion[ its a lie] that vote leave was a vote for hard brexit not lest as it was not what Vote leave campaigned for

I'm still hoping that Boris will be prepared to stand for pm and bravely put the needs of the country before his own personal beliefs and do a drastic u turn back into the eu.
Crazier things have happened.

Boris prioritising anything over the interests of Boris?

I wouldn't hold my breath for that one

I see this morning that Easyjet are relocating their offices to Austria. The exodus has started

I'm more likely to see Nicola Sturgeon wearing a union flag over her shoulders whilst sprinting down The Mall shouting "Isn't this blessed union a wonderful thing?" than Boris has of a public reconciliation with the truth.

the only thing boris believes in is boris.

Nice to see the OBR come out and say we're screwed if growth and tax income drops, which they will according to everyone across the brexit divide.

The whole thing is a farce, but who is actually going to hit the brakes. At the moment it seems to be a game of chicken, and no one is willing to back down.

oh the wheels on the bus are falling off off off, off off off....

Easyjet arent closing their office in Luton yet, until they know whats happening with the deal but staff are apparently very nervous

Would be bad for the town and the airport- which is a big contributor to the local economy, so any effects would be felt very hard in an already deprived ared.

mrmo - Member
Nice to see the OBR come out and say we're screwed if growth and tax income drops, which they will according to everyone across the brexit divide.

even jambs reckons it will be 10 years of pain before we see any improvement

if the OBR are right they could be a miserable 10 years then 🙁

[url= http://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/ryanair-brexit-michael-oleary-open-skies-eu-european-parliament-a7836511.html ]http://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/ryanair-brexit-michael-oleary-open-skies-eu-european-parliament-a7836511.html[/url]

I assume this has been covered already?

May has accepted that the Scots and Welsh parliaments need to be consulted and to vote on it ( legislative consent motion / Sewell convention)- and there is no way on earth that consent will be forthcoming. Major elephant in the room. Whats she going to do then? Suspend both parliaments? Force it thru despite votes against in both parliaments?

The power grab is real and felt strongly north of the border on both sides of the independence and the EU debate. A significant factor in the last GE in scotland was fishing rights. One reason why the tories won seats and something that is clearly a major factor in scottish politics.

If fishing rights stay with Westminster, Davidson is toast and she knows it. I can see a lot of wrangling over this

June 23 2016 - 52:48 leave

June 30 2017 - 52-54:48-46 remain (youGov and Survation) respectively

And the trend is consistently towards remain within a given company's polling.

Brexit is part of the past - time to get shot of it.

@igm everything is on track. Posturing in the media from the EU has been predictable. They are screwed. Repeal Bill will pass in the Autumn as easily as did the A50 legislation. The real mess is yet to come in 2018 when no "exit bill" has been agreed and for example when Spanish and French fishermen are looking at being locked out of our waters. We can buy whatever we want from the EU with a WTO tariff, or elsewhere if its cheaper. If the bankers want to go then off they can trot. I saw Corbyn refused to confirm we would remain in the single market or customs union if he where PM, he well knows we will be out of both and thats his / Labour's position too

Will catch up on the older posts over the weekend, have had a few posts here and elsewhere brought to my attention so they need to be checked.

I reckon it will have to get a lot worse before the tide actually turns, even though it's obvious enough to me that it will do so eventually. Too many people are too stupid to be able to think of the predictable consequences..they will have to see if happening first. And there will always be a hard core who just don't care about the consequences (the brexiteer I know most closely falls into this category).

[quote=jambalaya ]@igm everything is on track. Posturing in the media from the EU has been predictable. They are screwed. Repeal Bill will pass in the Autumn as easily as did the A50 legislation. The real mess is yet to come in 2018 when no "exit bill" has been agreed and Spanish Fishermen are looking at being locked out of our waters. I saw Corbyn refused to confirm we would remain in the single market or customs union if he where PM, he well knows we will be out of both and thats his / Labour's position too
Will catch up on the older posts over the weekend, have had a few posts here and elsewhere brought to my attention so they need to be checked.

^^^^

see, blinkered denial that brexit is a complete bit of a mess will push us off the cliff regardless of the consequences.

edit: when did the swear filter start replacing phrases rather than asterixing them?

Postive outlook jam bo. It was me who was proven right about the virtual non impact on the economy of the referendum vote, unlike IMF and HM Treasury who where left with a lot of egg on their faces

^^^^

see above.

It was me who was proven right about the virtual non impact on the economy of the referendum vote

We're in a worse place now than we were 10 yrs ago!

You might be alright 'Jack' but there a hell o a lot of folks who aren't!

It was me who was proven right about the virtual non impact on the economy of the referendum vote [b]that is non impact to those of us who have access to enough wealth and financial 'products' to hedge our position either way[/b]

FTFY.

The yacht owners are never truly ****ed, they just have to downsize to two more bedrooms than people in the house and restrict themselves to n+1 cars where n = number of adults in the household who can drive.

Meanwhile, for everyone else (let's call them 'the irrelevant') it means any semblance of recovery and the chance of a real-terms pay rise is pretty much off the cards for a decade.

And for what? What amazing vision are we inflicting this shit on ourselves for?

Simply smashing.

Easy Jet are also opening up in Austria so they can keep on running.

. It was me who was proven right about the virtual non impact on the economy of the referendum vote

We have a long long way to go yet.

I also seem to remember you predicting a recession and/or several years of either contraction or poor growth. Still happy to be right about that?

have had a few posts here and elsewhere brought to my attention so they need to be checked.

fact checking? I suggest you start with any posts which have "jambalaya - Member" at the top.

[quote=jambalaya ]It was me who was proven right about the virtual non impact on the economy of the referendum vote, unlike IMF and HM Treasury who where left with a lot of egg on their faces

Move along, nothing to see here - of course there has been no effect on the economy at all has there? Though it's an interesting spin you put on the predictions of the effects [b]when we leave the EU[/b]

Will catch up on the older posts over the weekend, have had a few posts here and elsewhere [b]brought to my attention[/b] so they need to be checked.

F me Jambs, you have a high opinion of yourself.

jambalaya - Member
Postive outlook jam bo. It was me who was proven right about the virtual non impact on the economy of the referendum vote, unlike IMF and HM Treasury who where left with a lot of egg on their faces

Incorrect. No one has proven anything yet. But the signs don't look good do they.

However you'll be ok (as will I of course) and you basically don't seem care about the wider population of the UK who's prospects ain't good.

you basically don't seem care about the wider population of the UK

Doesn't even register that they exist except when forced to coincide with them after leaving the golf/yacht/polo club en route back to the gated housing. Maybe at a petrol station? Whilst filling up the Jag perhaps?

Looks more and more like project fear and companies being forced to relocate is project fact. May only be a few jobs at first, but when you start where do you stop?

fact checking? I suggest you start with any posts which have "jambalaya - Member" at the top

Lord Jamba has a man to do that. A man who should be sacked for incompetence, but a man nevertheless.

[quote=dannyh ]Maybe at a petrol station? Whilst filling up the Jag perhaps?

Does he not have a chauffeur to do that?

It's alright for those of you who live on the mainland but for those of us on this island this stupidity is costing us real proper money.
Everything we buy for the shop has gone up. We try and swallow the difference which cuts down our profit.
Your bigotry is putting people out of work.
Put down your little flag and embrace the real world.

Does he not have a chauffeur to do that?

No, that's the Bentley. The Jag is the trusty old jalopy that occasionally does the yacht club run. Scarf flapping wildly in the slipstream.

Scarf flapping wildly in the slipstream.

I think he has someone to flap his scarf for him.

I think he has someone to flap his scarf for him.

Euphemism?

I'm being an optimist. I think that by September enough people will realise what an almighty cluster**** this is, and the whole thing will fall apart in parliament as the Maybot tries to railroad the repeal bill through.

The Tory party then goes to war with itself as the less mental members of the party (and there are quite a few) refuse to support it. It won't take many, as Labour, the SNP and Lib Dems have already said they'll vote against it unless they get concessions - which they won't get.

The result will be the end of this whole Brexit nonsense, and the Tory's out of power for a generation

You heard it here first kids 😀

The OBR was more measured than the headlines suggest, not least since they specifically stated that they had not attempted to model the implications of different agreements for future trade on future growth. They did give one interesting figure though - if GDP and receipts grew just 0.1 percentage points more slowly than projected over the next 50 years but spending was unchanged then the debt/GDP ratio would be 50 percentage points higher

Far more interesting was the debunking of the austerity myth - we still run a budget deficit of 2-3% of GDP, just as it was pre-Crisis (no really!) and that net debt is more than double its pre crisis share of GDP. Hence our public finances are "much more sensitive to IR and inflation surprises than they were*"

Hence fall in £ is bad not good, see also below

jambas - we debated the impact of the decline in £ at the time of Brexshit. My predictions (negative) contrasted with yours (positive IIRC). So demand for exports have proved relatively price inelastic. However, the impact of the fall in £ has been more immediate and seen in the negative loop of rising inflation, pressure on real wages and squeezed consumers. Hence the BOE is in a pickle with having to balance rising inflation (raise rates) and v weak real wage growth (leave rates alone and keep stealing off savers)

It's a bloody mess not a success. Just been at lunch (!!) which "told me"

The risk, Binners, is what happened then - no deal means what???

be careful what you wish for...

back to trade deals. New chief trade negotiator Crawford Falconer, described by Liam Fox as 'best global talent'.
From the 'eye 1447, page 11 for full text, i'm paraphrasing:
Falconer has spent much of his career working for his native NZ, putting together deals, most notably in the far east. one with Hong Kong, whose talks started in 2001, and the deal was finally signed in......2010, coming in to force the following year.
Speedier deals with Malaysia and China took just five and four years respectively, although the full terms of the latter are being phased in at a blistering.... 11 years.
Those deals covered far fewer areas than any deals we will need.
Falconer also did a spell with the WTO Doha round of talks on agriculture. 16 years after these talks began, they remain unfinished, with numerous deadlines missed.

Presumably falconer likes the 'whooshing' noise deadlines make as they go by....

Presumably falconer likes the 'whooshing' noise deadlines make as they go by....

You either have a good deal or a fast deal, the two are mutually exclusive. The UK may get fast deals in the same way a crack w***e will do anything to get their next fix. But that doesn't mean the UK will benefit.

Case in point the talk of opening the NHS to the US, is it actually for the benefit of the UK, or for the US that US healthcare gets access? Or how about hormone beef? Is that really a benefit, but it is the sort of thing that will be ceeded to close a deal quickly.

Likewise a massive amount of work visas included in any trade deal with India and ****stan.

I'm assuming shortages in the NHS will be filled with people from the subcontinent which will please my mum.
She voted leave as her friend had a Nigerian nurse be nasty to her.

The racists who voted for Brexit aren't going to be happy when all those Eastern Europeans are replaced by people who are.... you know.... the wrong colour

[url= http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/brexit-riots-would-be-shittest-riots-ever-20170710131459 ]Is this what you're worried about Hurty?[/url] 😆

Yes, definitely sliding down the scale, around level 4 I would guess;

Old Europe (Germany, France)
Asian
New Europe (eastern Europe)
African
Any largely muslim countries

http://rochdaleherald.co.uk/2017/07/14/eu-divorce-bill/amp/

edit: when did the swear filter start replacing phrases rather than asterixing them?

It always has, the asterisks are replacement phrases. We'd never have the gaul to start asterixing things.

It was me who was proven right about the virtual non impact on the economy of the referendum vote, unlike IMF and HM Treasury who where left with a lot of egg on their faces

The only reason the economy didn't go down the toilet harder than it has immediately after the referendum was because Mark Carney found £250bn in the Bank of England's copper jar in order to slam an adrenaline shot into its heart.

And "virtual non impact" my arse.

[quote=teamhurtmore ]Far more interesting was the debunking of the austerity myth

Interesting to those who didn't already know that maybe. Though of course the overall figures hide cuts being made in some areas - presumably because the deficit would need to have increased (or been maintained at post crisis levels) in order to avoid that.

Just been at lunch (!!) which "told me"

Gosh - I'd love to know who with.

Mark Carney found £250bn in the Bank of England's copper jar in order to slam an adrenaline shot into its heart

And, loathe as I am to credit the toerag, but Osborne was the only politician post vote who seemed to be doing anything in the immediate aftermath....

Also, re the 'austerity myth', it's not a myth in the public sector, we've been hammered.

Any cash has gone out the backdoor... the rich get rich....

metalheart - Member
Also, re the 'austerity myth', it's not a myth in the public sector, we've been hammered.

Any cash has gone out the backdoor... the rich get rich....

POSTED 33 MINUTES AGO # REPORT-POST

Not brilliant in the private sector, either (observation, not Tory-style point scoring).

The rich get richer..............

No room at the trough when the fat pigs are there.

Aracer - of course, as I said a few pages back, it's basic economics, if you ring fence some areas, others will lose out - allocation of scarce resources - and some current losers have been significant winners in the last, so swings and roundabouts

The rich haven't got richer - unless you restrict yourself to a micro segment - another enduring myth. And to think jambas gets abuse

That Adonis fellah is pretty stark in his warnings

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-nazis-appease-lord-andrew-adonis-labour-peer-1930s-adolf-hitler-uk-leave-eu-a7840501.html

The rich haven't got richer [ now let me add a caveat so this statement is still true]- unless you restrict yourself to a micro segment - another enduring myth.

I hope Jamby appreciates your one man campaign to rehabilitate him but it might make more sense if you spend you time with him teaching him logic, reason and a fact based approach to debate

You would not mark his essays well - assuming you are pretending to be a teacher this week or are you still an international business man - you have new job how about spy this time?

What's this hard Brexshit that Adonis is worried about?

The rich haven't got richer

The richest have got richer.

What's this hard Brexshit that Adonis is worried about?

Well… no exit deal, no trade deal, no transition period… that would be pretty hard.

Outcomes less onerous than that are up for debate as to whether they are hard, soft, clean, dirty, dry, wet…

Income inequality has declined over past 10 year (source ONS)

And neither HM Gov or HM Oppo are advocating a hard Brexshit

But apart from that.....

The richest have got richer.

Who says they'll get what they're advocating?

Is that a problem?

They can't by definition

Well, THM, not advocating it any more. Probably. But the Tories keep contradicting each other. So who knows what we'll get. Or even what HM Gov actually want.

As do HM Oppo. They're all split on the issue as is the country.

They both seem to be stuck pretty much in have cake and eat it fantasy land. With a side helping of TNUMTWNT.

Plus people like this are depressingly common.

Yup, we won't get what they claim they're aiming for… so a no deal, or sensible compromise.
If you're making life or business plans… don't bet on our "top" politicians doing the later.
I'm with THM and hoping for a long dragged out transition to give time for a proper plan to be out in place by different politicians later.
A no deal exit is very likely though, and as I asked before, what is the democratic means for rejecting that?

Income inequality has declined over past 10 year (source ONS)

Clue: wealth != income

Being a brexit gloomster is all making me rather worried.
I have very little faith in our politicians to deliver a decent deal, tho I can't think they'd be that stupid to crash out without one.
With a young family I'm really hoping that Brexit doesn't damage the country too much.

Clue: wealth != income

Exactly

Decimating council budgets, social care, libraries, the welfare state damages the life chances of the poor, whilst barely affecting the richest

Next thing you know people at the sharp end start voting for any kind of populist nonsense

It always has, the asterisks are replacement phrases. We'd never have the gaul to start asterixing things.

Off topic but

****

Cluster ****

bit of a mess

I can understand why people are worried bit the overwhelmingly most likely outcome is the whole thing being called off to the relief of all but a handful of swivel-eyed loons.

thecaptain - Member
I can understand why people are worried bit the overwhelmingly most likely outcome is the whole thing being called off to the relief of all but a handful of swivel-eyed loons.

POSTED 5 MINUTES AGO # REPORT-POST

God, I hope so.

With just one day of this for all who voted 'leave'.

[img] [/img]

Or maybe this.

[img] /revision/latest?cb=20110714195423[/img]

A no deal exit is very likely though, and as I asked before, what is the democratic means for rejecting that?

or
1. Mps vote against bill or support labour amendment insisting in EEA membership or some such
2. God knows

However one also has to ask whether their is time for that to take place and what the Eu will do whilst we do it.
so
1.MP's vote against Bill
2. We run out of time to act so
3a WTO
3B delayed fudge by EU/UK extending talks whilst we get our shit together
4. Referendum or GE

the UK has obligations to the EU?.?.?.?that will survive the UK’s withdrawal — and that these need to be resolved

So say our government.

I thought we were assured that we wouldn't have to pay a penny to those dastardly Eurocrats ?

It always has, the asterisks are replacement phrases. We'd never have the gaul to start asterixing things.

So who put in the change of the word 'summ-at' to 'somthing' then 😉

something - see, that's not what I typed.

I'm aware that the true price of pedantry is eternal vigilance, but...

[url= https://apple.news/AaRsBQdlbTfK7RSXSZaaRjw ]Tony Blair breaks cover[/url]. Good words, imo.

I can't think they'd be that stupid to crash out without one.

Hmmm dunno about that one 🙂

The EuroAtom Farce makes me wonder.

https://www.ft.com/content/a0e25381-e85b-3572-baf2-3acf9aeba52a

Looks like the government have agreed that they are going to pay money to the EU.

how many U turns is that now?

Non FT link for the hot polloi?

And neither HM Gov or HM Oppo are advocating a hard Brexshit

"No deal is better than a bad deal"?

Off topic but

*

Cluster *

bit of a mess

I know, I can read the filter. It replaces characters with other characters, letters and asterisks are both characters.

So who put in the change of the word 'summ-at' to 'somthing' then

That I can't see. Some of it is legacy, like blocking some of the more irritating Fred-isms, and not really relevant any more. Why that particular one is in there I couldn't say, but I expect there was a reason for it at the time.

Point of note here, we can view it but don't have privs to make changes to it. Anything that gets included is done by STW towers, all the Moderators can do is request changes.

Cut and pasted from the FT, not quite sure how the paywall works, as i got this without a subscription.

The humiliation came in three stages, spread over three days. The first stage was on Tuesday 11 July 2017, on the floor of the House of Commons. During a debate on exiting the EU, the UK foreign secretary Boris Johnson was asked:

“Since we joined the Common Market on 1 January 1973 until the date we leave, we will have given the EU and its predecessors, in today’s money in real terms, a total of £209 billion. Will the Foreign Secretary make it clear to the EU that if it wants a penny piece more, it can go whistle?”

Johnson’s answer was:

“I am sure that my hon. Friend’s words will have broken like a thunderclap over Brussels and they will pay attention to what he has said. He makes a very valid point; the sums that I have seen that they propose to demand from this country seem to me to be extortionate, and I think that to “go whistle” is an entirely appropriate expression.”

Brussels could go and whistle over any financial payment in the exit agreement. Here the foreign secretary was doing little more than repeating what was said at that infamous dinner at Downing Street, where (according to Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung):

“The subject of money came up in conversation. The EU estimates costs of 60-65 billion Euros for London. May argued that her country didn’t owe the European Union one penny; after all, there’s nothing in the treaty about a final tally due in the event of an exit.”

The second step of the humiliation came the day after, on Wednesday, at a press conference given by the EU chief negotiator on Brexit, Michael Barnier. He was asked about the “whistle” comment. With the air of a headteacher telling the pupils that it is only their own time they are wasting, he responded:

“I am not hearing any whistling, just the clock ticking.”

The third stage was the admission by the UK government on Thursday that it was, in fact, accepting that it was to pay an amount to the EU on departure. This was spotted by the FT’s bureau chief in Brussels Alex Barker as a written answer to a parliamentary question. The relevant portion of the answer was:

“On the financial settlement, as set out in the Prime Minister’s letter to President Tusk, the Government has been clear that we will work with the EU to determine a fair settlement of the UK’s rights and obligations as a departing member state, in accordance with the law and in the spirit of our continuing partnership. The Government recognises that the UK has obligations to the EU, and the EU obligations to the UK, that will survive the UK’s withdrawal — and that these need to be resolved.”

This went subtly beyond what was said in the Article 50 letter of 29 March 2017, which had stated:

“We will need to discuss how we determine a fair settlement of the UK’s rights and obligations as a departing member state, in accordance with the law and in the spirit of the United Kingdom’s continuing partnership with the EU.”

As Alex Barker reported, EU diplomats said the wording “goes further” than Theresa May’s previous reference to Britain being willing to reach a “fair settlement” of unspecified (not necessarily financial) obligations.

In effect, Thursday was the day the whistling ended. This, of course, is no surprise. Unless something unexpected happens, the story of the Brexit negotiations will be one of the UK giving way on each contested point. Britain promised the “row of the summer” over the sequencing of the negotiations before quietly capitulating. The UK appears to be now accepting the principle of some payment to the EU on exit.

There are two main reason for these setbacks. The first, which was set out in a trilogy of posts on this blog (here, here and here), is that the EU has prepared properly and practically for these negotiations. The EU knows what it wants, can justify what it wants and has worked out how to achieve it. Britain is instead saddled with a prime minister whose idea of “getting on with the job” includes calling and then losing unnecessary general elections.

The second reason is that UK ministers are, in fact, negotiating with the wrong people (as set in on this blog in November). Ministers are engaged in attempting to win over, as much as possible, their own backbenchers and the tabloid newspapers. A martian looking down on these ministers would assume that the EU exit negotiations were of secondary importance to winning political and press support. The Brexit agreement has an auxiliary role to the need to say the right things to the right people domestically.

Such is the closeness of Westminster political and media worlds that the foreign secretary and others do not realise there is anything about international agreements beyond joking with backbenchers and political correspondents. For Mr Johnson and those laughing along with him, Mr Barnier and his team are no closer than Alfred T. Mahan’s far distant, storm-beaten ships.

As pro-Brexit ministers attempt to bluster or chuckle their way through any form of scrutiny, the EU negotiating team is there waiting patiently, knowing the clock is ticking away. There will be attempts by ministers and their supporters at avoidance, evasion and diversion. There will be name-calling and strident demands for patriotism. There will be blame-mongering and jockeying for succession. But what there will not be is any relevant minister taking this as seriously as the EU is doing.

This week may have seen the day when the whistling stopped. But far more important is what Britain will have to show for itself when the ticking of the clock stops in just over 20 months’ time, and is replaced by the sound of silence. Even Mr Johnson may fail to raise a smile then.

Cut and pasted from the FT, not quite sure how the paywall works, as i got this without a subscription.

Thank you, appreciated.

I'm fairly sure you get a free number of article views with the FT then you hit the subscription wall.

another thought about the whole referendum

I keep hoping for the grown ups to wrestle back control from the lunatics presently at the wheel, and put the brakes on this self-harming stupidity

Yet here we still are....

What process do you have in mind? We have two groups of incompetents (Tory and Lab) who enjoy the support of the majority of the Uk voters who are both arguing largely for the same thing will the same level of preparation (sic). So you might as well wait for Godot. He will arrive earlier