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Fair summary? Short and to the point..
They are, and they're the only two times I can think of it happening.
So Hitler 'united' Europe in your view? Whilst I see your point, it not really comparable to the EU is it?
^ that.
But the fantasy of Britain’s past collides almost farcically against Britain’s present.
The Gibraltar thing shows up the down side of being out of the gang. Any beef we have with any of the gang members we have to fight the whole gang now. 😀
Though are we sure that the Art 50 letter doesn't have 'April Fool' on the back.
"So Hitler 'united' Europe in your view?"
Very much so, as did Napoleon. I'm not really sure how you can argue otherwise.
"it not really comparable to the EU is it?"
Nope, the EU was nothing to do with my point, nor did I mention the EU.
But since you mention it, I'll share my Armageddon conspiracy theory: When the phosphates crisis kicks in, don't you think Europe will need to look east for food? And if there's not enough to go round won't that result in something that looks very much like the Nazi "hunger plan"?
And don't you think all the squabbling over the Ukraine might be an embryonic part of that?
We're all 12 meals away from murder & I really can imagine once the phosphates crisis kicks in there could be a war over the food producing areas of Eastern Europe and if so the UK really should be part of any European Political Affiliation so we help in the war and share the benifits, which AFAIC means being in the EU.
Makes you think.
Tax Haven ? Low tax rates have been the policy tool of choice in Ireland and Luxembourg.
Sky News has it right, what we are seeing is [b]Podium Policy[/b] just grand posturing from the EU.
All to be expected, EU fighting rearguard action to try and keep Le Pen out next month and the 27 onside. Contributors don't want to pay more and benefactors don't want to take less. Massive standoff which the EU is trying to paper over implying the UK is going to keep paying. Its quite a laugh, can you imagine if a net recipient left the EU them arguing they should keep receiving money after they've left.
Tusk speaking of unity when his own country Poland tried to block his re-election. Hollande piping up, a man so unpopular he is not even standing for re-election and whose own PM said he is not voting for the Socialist candidate !
You see? ^^^
It's all the EU's fault. jamba's continued postings are a great insight into the workings of a Brexiteer's mind. They tell us all we need to know about how ill-informed many of their positions are.
Straw for sir, Jambalaya
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"Its quite a laugh, can you imagine if a net recipient left the EU them arguing they should keep receiving money after they've left."
That's quite funny. I thought the EU were being quite reasonable asking the UK to honour existing commitments but you're right, the EU wouldn't pay all the 'non-paying' nations to leave, would they?
EU fighting rearguard action to try and keep Le Pen out
FFS Jamba, you live in a fantasy world. Why not blame the EU for Corbyn's failure too? Or Putin for Hilary's failure. Because even if they tried it wouldn't make any difference. What does make a difference is a series of lies dressed up as facts and transmitted by the media (and you) - it's called propaganda, it's dangerous and it really isn't the work of the EU.
If Le Pen scores well it will be for other reasons:
1/ Fillon is a liar and a cheat and in the pockets of the super rich, and 75% of French people know that. Le Pen benefits from the Republicans being a shambles right now.
2/ Le Pen has a following based on her manifesto which appeals to a demographic similar to the Brexie demographic but as the French are generally better educated in terms of history, politics and philosophy that demographic is smaller.
3/ the left is divided and has failed dismally by its own standards over the last five years.
Edit: any betting people have odds for Macron as next president? It might be worth a modest punt.
And yet
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-poll-idUKKCN1002A0
Sure there are plenty of loudmouth nationalist xenophobes tub thumping across the continent
But Wilders is back in the wildersness, Merkels party showing strongly in recent elections.
If France can see sense over lepen then the facists can keep trying to sew division and hate but decency shall prevail!
With the caveat that I'm very much on the remain side....
From a defence perspective, NATO pre-dates the EU and is enormously more potent and relevant militarily due to Uncle Sam! NATO, and nuclear weapons arguably, are the reason for the relative peace since WWII. EU for trade, NATO for security. We're not going to go to war with our former EU partners in some kind of post-imperialist Brexie wet dream because they're still our NATO allies, and the principle of collective defence is just as relevant today as it's always been; no single European nation is much of a match for Russia imo.
Incidentally, I commented on the Daily Mail's BTL bit (I couldn't help myself) when others were expressing similar bellicose sentiments. I wondered whether they'd be joining us serving military in the event? Probably not, those who have to fight wars are usually less keen to call for them! I'm sure there are EU nations with Mail equivalents though, with similarly unhinged comments; the shouty nutters will hopefully be safely ignored by the grown-ups!
Our only mistake in the past was actually getting involved in their idiotic wars, when we could have sat on the sideline and watched with utter bemusement.
After which we have ended up speaking German.
After which we have ended up speaking German.
Nonsense. GB could have opted out of WW2, just like the USSR did.
Oh.
Phosphate crisis
Not entirely sure that's an issue just yet.
Peak phosphor is about 100yrs away.
Fairly sure we'll have found an alternative by then, after all it's found in sh1t & there's no shortage of that in the World..
Nahh - the continent would have ended up speaking Russian.
Actually Matt, we could have probably opted out of the 2nd Great Round of Stupidity as Hitler was entirely smitten with the idea of owning Russia - and actually pretty disinterested in annexing an island full of sheep and tea drinkers.
I suspect his beady eye would have turned across the Channel in due course. Where an expansionist empire sees a threat it deals with it. Check out the Romans, they "conquered the world in self defence".
Brexies indulging in petty bickering about events of seventy years ago and justifying their current Europhobia on prejudices from that period. Things have moved on, Tom. The challenges we face today do not include which language we are allowed to speak (though I did spot a thread in which someone was objecting to supermarket workers using their mother tongue in informal chit chat).
and actually pretty disinterested in annexing an island full of sheep and tea drinkers.
There was a piece of paper to prove it.
this is what is utterly baffling to me.welshfarmer - MemberWhat I really cannot get my head round is how it came to be an US 7 THEM situation. WE WERE THE EU. I
Hitler united Europe, what colour is the sky in the world you live in.
Matt, just because Tom posts speculative, historically flawed, British bulldog trash doesn't mean you have to indulge him. It's nationalistic gutter press propaganda of the kind used to mobilise populations for war, ignore it.
Yeah thx for the prod, quite right.
Not sure if this doesn't belong in the April fool thread but it made me smile... http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/the-brexit-facebook-group-are-losing-their-minds-over-an-april-fools-joke/ar-BBz8V8H?li=AAmiR2Z&ocid=spartandhp
tjagain - Membersbob - simply wrong. Look at the statement in response to the a 50 letter
the EU acts as one on trade and no country by country nor case by case negotiations are possible legally. We negotiate with the EU on trade - and yes any goods produced in the EU are EU goods. That's the whole point of the single market
No, you are still missing the point that the EU is not a single entity, and your above post is actually a strawman argument (though I doubt it is intentional).
One last go.
What is the unemployment rate of the European Union?
The EU average is 8.1%, sbob. Individual countries vary. Countries that had high rates of unemployment before joining the EU tend to have similarly high rates after joining.
If you look at the UK then high unemployment correlates better with the oil price than EU membership.
Hey Brexies!
Met one of your kind whilst riding my bike earlier. She was letting her dog have a shit in the bushes just off a path in a local country park.
Her: This is NOT a cycle path.
Me: I know, but it's safer than riding up the road.
Her: I DON'T CARE.
Me: Oh well, never mind.....
I just continued riding along.
I didn't ask her about her vote in the referendum, but she fitted the Brexie profile so well.
Bitter? Check.
Petty? Check.
Joyless? Check.
Seething with pent-up frustration about how the country has 'gone to the dogs'? Probably.
Prejudiced of me? Probably, but I'd be willing to bet a fiver I'm right.
The EU average is 8.1%
.....and in the under 25s in Spain it's closer to 20%....wouldn't you think the collective 'power' and 'intelligence' of the near 30 member states would've sorted this by now!?
I have no faith in the cooperative of idiots that call themselves the EU.
Unemployment in Spain was over 20% when I worked there before Spain was in the EU. Not just under 25s either. Now check out Spanish growth, Spanish stock index, Spanish exports, Spanish manufacturing etc since joining the EU.
Edukator - Reformed TrollUnemployment in Spain was over 20% when I worked there before Spain was in the EU. Not just under 25s either.
This almost sounds like you're equating employment rates with EU membership...
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People forgot that Spain had also only been a democratic country for ten years when it joined the EU, and there had been a coup attempt only 5 years before. It is impossible to know how much of subsequent growth is due to EU membership or simply political change.
On the contrary, sbob, read my previous post. I'm saying Spanish unemployment is not correlated with EU membership.
Right you are.
sbob - is this deliberate by you?
I clearly stated FOR TRADE the EU ACTS as a single entity. As it does. as it will do. Thus the fantasy of the leavers that somehow because we are a market for German cars that Germany will do a deal with us is simple nonsense. they legally cannot, they EU is determined to be united in its approach to the negotiations with the UK and its been clearly stated numerous times tht on trade the EU will act as one
"Thus the fantasy of the leavers that somehow because we are a market for German cars that Germany will do a deal with us is simple nonsense. they legally cannot,"
I agree, that's my take on it. But the counter argument is some countries carry more weight than the others - Germany always seems to get the interest rates that it wants.
...I suppose the other counter argument is that influence is not correlated to membership. I bet the USA have more say in this than Malta...
But yeah, seems to me that any of the 27 nations can veto any deal and therefore I can't see how many deal can be done in 24 months. (but everyone else thinks it can, so maybe I'm wrong about that)
[I}.....and in the under 25s in Spain it's closer to 20%....wouldn't you think the collective 'power' and 'intelligence' of the near 30 member states would've sorted this by now!?
I have no faith in the cooperative of idiots that call themselves the EU.
[/I]
Hmm, if it was me I'd be asking what the Spanish politicians were going to do about it because the UK (for example) has <5% unemployment and is in the EU.
But yeah, seems to me that any of the 27 nations can veto any deal and therefore I can't see how many deal can be done in 24 months. (but everyone else thinks it can, so maybe I'm wrong about that)
I don't see a trade deal happening, we'll do the "walk away".
That's why May has mentioned it many times - she knows it's the only outcome she can both promise and deliver.
Oh and I don't totally understand the logic of the EU's Gibraltar clause. How does moving Gib out of the FTA prevent the Spanish using it as a veto? Surely they can veto for any reason they want.
The Gib issue being in the draft terms doesn't bode well for a moderate process though. On our side it gives the flag wavers a cause to rally around and dig in. Not sure how that helps the EU unless they've totally given up on a moderate outcome or even revocation.
The Gib issue being in the draft terms doesn't bode well for a moderate process though. On our side it gives the flag wavers a cause to rally around and dig in. Not sure how that helps the EU unless they've totally given up on a moderate outcome or even revocation.
Like everything, it's pre-negotiation posturing, imagine the draft as their version of 'cake and eat it' - nobody seriously thinks that the EC will take it on as a negotiating point, but it allows the Spanish to play the big man to a domestic audience with a populist gesture.
On the other hand however, if you view it from a Scottish indyref point of view, you could say it's the Spanish resorting very much to type, and the type of thing they could very easily do to send a domestic message where they actually do have a veto.
Using xenophobia as a political tool has consequences
Our version of "cake and eat it" is:
"le beurre, l'argent du beurre et le sourire de la crémière".
Which I've heard modified to "baisser de la crémière" or even "fesses de la crémière" in the context of Brexit. Which indicates that people have fully understood that the UK wishes to gain unfair advantage and that it would be a good idea to protect our crémières.
tjagain - Membersbob - is this deliberate by you?
Yes.
I am deliberately failing to misunderstand the difference between a trade agreement and actual trade.
🙂
Teenager beaten to near death for being an asylum seeker.
A horror.
Yesterday someone put me on a Twitter list called "Next time an immigrant commits rape, blame these".
Hmm, if it was me I'd be asking what the Spanish politicians were going to do about it because the UK (for example) has <5% unemployment and is in the EU.
Though it's about 11% in the under 25s.
On the other hand however, if you view it from a Scottish indyref point of view, you could say it's the Spanish resorting very much to type, and the type of thing they could very easily do to send a domestic message where they actually do have a veto.
OUCH ! 🙂
EU unemployment. So why did Junker say the [b]Economic Crises[/b] was the number 1 priority of the EU ? Answer because it is in a terrible state.
Edukator I do wonder what will happen when the French realise that post Brexit they will be paying a lot more into the EU.
Paying more is entirely your invention, Jamba.
I'll be equally inventive and suggest the UK will end up paying more one way or another. See Norway and Switzerland and adjust for scale. 💡
It's just speculation at this stage and the French have got more interesting things to busy themselves with. Such as being as welcoming as possible to the forward-looking companies and individuals that are looking for somewhere with a high quality of life within the EU post Brexit.
2/ Le Pen has a following based on her manifesto which appeals to a demographic similar to the Brexie demographic but as the French are generally better educated in terms of history, politics and philosophy that demographic is smaller.
Le Pen will get double the vote UKIP ever managed. Ditto Wilders, Austrian Far Right, Hungary and Poland. Eurosceptism is just as strong outside the UK it's just people are not given an explicit membership referendum. France voted against the EU constitution but got it anyway via Lisbon.
The whole of the rest of the world manages just fine not being in the EU and that nationalism hasn't resulted in Hitler Mk2 or WW3 either
My wager Edukator is we are going to pay close to zero. We have a trade deficit. It makes no sense to pay anything. Switzerland and Norway have large EU trade surpluses.
The whole of the rest of the world manages just fine not being in the EU and that nationalism hasn't resulted in Hitler Mk2 or WW3 either
Of course, other areas with a war stricken past are seeking to emulate the EU and create their own blocks to increase trade and cooperation.
Eurosceptism is just as strong outside the UK
False. Links are needed for claims like that. All the polls I've seen say the majority of the core EU/Euro zone peoples are happy with the Euro in their pocket and EU membership.
France was against and Lisbon wasn't the same thing. France was also against TITP for what ever the acronym for the trade deal was and that was stopped to the relief of many Europeans including Brits. It's nice to have a country and indeed a continent looking after the interests the people. Now you'll just have to trust May to look after your human rights, health, working conditions etc..
What was it the Remainers where telling us, just wait till A50 is triggered and see what happens to the £ ? Up !
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[I]My wager Edukator is we are going to pay close to zero. We have a trade deficit. It makes no sense to pay anything. Switzerland and Norway have large EU trade surpluses. [/I]
I'll have a tenner on that wager, based on how confident you are you'll have no problem offering good odds - 10-1, or maybe 100-1?
True Edukator. The Dutch are much more negative as are the Swedes.
sbob - what you are actually doing is continuing to dig when you are in a hole. You (deliberately?) misstated my point then keep on claiming I said something I didn't
Future ongoing payments. A straight wager. Done. We'll settle up in April 2019.
I think you need a ten year rather than three month currency chart, Jamba. The level I sold at is half way up my last post. I saw some bank predicting under 1.1 if Brexit finally happens but that obviously is just a prediction.
[quote=jambalaya ]What was it the Remainers where telling us, just wait till A50 is triggered and see what happens to the £ ? Up !
Come on Jambas you can do better than that. 1 swallow doesn't make a summer 🙂 Lies, damn lies, and statistics......
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Jamba shut down again 😆
False. Links are needed for claims like that.
Don't hold your breath..
Well, I'll put my hand up and admit I expected the £ to fall further against the $ when A50 was triggered (less so the €). Pleasantly suprised that it hasn't. Perhaps exchange rates have found their level for our current situation, and nothing crazy will happen for 18 months or so. If so, good news. Glad to be wrong on this one. Very glad.
@Welsh no the prediction made by Remainers here was that the £ would go down even more. It went up. World didn't fall apart in 2008/9 when £/€ was last around these levels.
@kelvin there is a market cliche of "sell the runour buy the fact". The Govt made it clear A50 would be end March so it was fully priced in. The event itself was a damp squib from a markets perspective. My guess is small rally was profit taking from shorts.
World didn't fall apart in 2008/9 when £/€ was last around these levels.
No, but it was rubbish. And, despite the upward trend, most predict a fall to around 1.05. But then you don't do experts do you.........
Don't hold your breath..
Wise words 🙂 Link tennis is not my style and I assume people read the news or if they want clarification they can use google.
When Jamby posts I always picture sean spicer saying that clumsily to a gathered group of non believers open mouthed at the hubris which is in no way matched by any fact
But then you don't do experts do you.....
I'm an "expert" and you don't listen to me 😉
Forecasts are interesting to read but worth little ime of 30 in finance.
Exports where up again due to weak £ (Guardian piece). 1.05 would help our teade deficit. Personally I don't think that will happen as eurozone catastrophe will outweigh Brexit tantrums
if they want clarification they can use google
😆
I take it back you are far far funnier
One has to post facts to be able to cite hence you dont do link tennis you do make shit up and move on when folk point out its wrong tennis
an appeal to authority and your own.Forecasts are interesting to read but worth little ime of 30 in finance
You are spoiling us today with your posts
No, but it was rubbish. And, despite the upward trend, most predict a fall to around 1.05. But then you don't do experts do you.........
No they don't, some do, some don't, the market finds an equilibrium between the two.
One person linked a bank article predicting the pound would fall further in the [u]long[/u] term. Nobody on here has predictied the pound would fall further than it already has.
I'd happily see it rise again, it's one Brexit consequence that isn't in the interest of people I know. It's the loss of freedom of movement, los of reciprocal agreements, tarif free trade, lost educational opportunities, increased paperwork, uncertain future, loss of year of pension rights... that concern people I know.
No they don't, some do, some don't, the market finds an equilibrium between the two.
Yes, but all predictions are lower than todays rate aren't they?
One person linked a bank article predicting the pound would fall further in the long term. Nobody on here has predictied the pound would fall further than it already has.
Well, I'll put my hand up and admit I expected the £ to fall further against the $ when A50 was triggered (less so the €). Pleasantly suprised that it hasn't.
Awkward
Personally I don't think that will happen as eurozone catastrophe will outweigh Brexit tantrums
I'll take that to mean any rubbish (or no deal), or the increasing prospect of such, will hit both gbp and euro… which I'd agree with, but with language that wasn't as heavy on the hyperbole. Sterling vs USD is the one to watch.
Awkward
It's almost as we're different people.
Not sure if I posted 'on here' my thoughts as records exchange rates, I have in private to others though, and I was wrong as regards this event. There's more events to come though… when things will actually change, rather than people talking about triggering future change.
tjagain - Membersbob - what you are actually doing is continuing to dig when you are in a hole. You (deliberately?) misstated my point then keep on claiming I said something I didn't
😆
I'm not in a hole and I haven't changed my position. You're sticking your fingers in your ears and erecting a strawman.
I haven't miss-stated your point, you're just ignoring mine.
I personally think it is mutually beneficial for us all to work together, it's one of the reasons why I voted to remain.
Well I reckon the run on the pound this week has more to do with the Easter break and all the Europeans taking advantage and coming over there for a cheap holiday. But that is just speculation (as is all currency trading 🙂 )
Err, but the pound is still roughly 15% down versus the dollar compared to just before the referendum, isn't it?
How is that good again? Can't remember.
Of course the FX rate didn't show much of a change compared to last June. When you tell people in advance what you are going to, the actual event isn't really that important. It would have been interesting what would have happened to the rate had Theresa the Appeaser said "actually, this has all been a colossal mistake and I'm taking this letter round to Dave's house so he can shove it up his arse".
There was only a big move last June because not even the markets and speculators could believe we were going to be that stupid.
Jamba said
The whole of the rest of the world manages just fine not being in the EU
Very large parts of the rest of the world are in a dreadful state. Utterly awful. The EU is a prosperous and liberal paradise by any comparison to most of the world.
The whole of the rest of the world manages just fine
It's another lie!