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Yes I agree completely re FPTP. It creates a binary winner takes all outcome that doesn't reflect the vote.
The 2015 GE:
Tory 37% vote 51% of seats
Labour 30% of vote 36% of seats
SNP 4.7% of votes 9% of votes
LDs 8% of votes 1% of seats.
Greens and UKIP were both shafted too, should have dozens of MPs each.
Edit: UKIP 13% of vote no seats - would have in the 80s on strict PR, Greens 4% of vote, 1 seat, would be in the mid twenties.
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results
Mattjg - you make the assumption that voting patterns in a FFTP system would continue in a PR system - maybe, maybe not.
Also extreme minorities can wield a lot of power in a PR system. Imagine 2 mainstream parties each getting 45% of the seats and a bunch of possibly we meaning nutters getting 10% - assuming they are astute, the 10% would have a disproportionate amount of power as king makers. (Yes reality is more complex, but you get the principle)
Sure thanks, I realise. For "illustrative purposes".
Tell Bob he's been shafted by the 'middle' once again
[url= http://www.runnymedetrust.org/projects-and-publications/employment-3/race-and-class.html ]http://www.runnymedetrust.org/projects-and-publications/employment-3/race-and-class.html[/url]
“Mainstream Brexit analysis tells us that it was the white working class alone that drove the Brexit vote, concluding that this group's needs are distinct and that they should take precedent over the needs of other groups. Apart from being untrue, with 59 per cent of the middle class voting for Brexit versus 24 per cent of the working class, this analysis and it's conclusions are turning the clock back on progress in our multi-racial community.
Average folk...
Watched Newsnight last night and they were in Pennsylvania talking about healthcare. One women they spoke to said that they should get rid of forcing companies to cover their employees insurance, as some couldn't afford it, and in the next breath said how they were dependent on it but it was fine because the company her husband worked for could afford it...
The reporter didn't ask her whether if they got rid of the obligation whether she thought her husbands company would still offer it, or anything awkward like that.
which is why we live in a representative democracy and rely on politicians to make informed decisions on our behalf.
So why has that not happened with the brexit vote?
The public were given a go, made an ill informed decision and the politicians are going along with it. So we basically cannot rely on politicians to make an informed decision as they are more worried about losing their seat/job than doing the right thing.
So why has that not happened with the brexit vote?
Probably this:
The 2015 GE:Tory 37% vote 51% of seats
Labour 30% of vote 36% of seats
SNP 4.7% of votes 9% of votes
LDs 8% of votes 1% of seats.
52% must seem a massive majority if you are used to forming a majority government on 37% of the votes.
This article sums things up nicely [url= https://umairhaque.com/the-case-against-brexit-that-should-have-been-made-but-wasnt-7e28e94b62cc#.yr8oh0c0l ]the argument against Brexit that should have been made but wasn't[/url].
Because even though they made the vote advisory, they also said they would implement the result...and they are scared shitless of the consequences if they don't.
Best outcome (and still most likely in my view) is that after a year of fruitless grandstanding and threatening on both sides of the supposed negotiation, together with an increasing stream of bad economic news and disinvestment, public opinion turns sufficiently hostile that the whole idea can be dropped. There will still be riots of course, and perhaps the second coming of the Nigel. But it beats the alternatives.
Lalala - fingers in ears - everything will be fine.
Tenuous, that article is really dumb. Any future tariffs on imports do not go to the EU! THey are tariffs imposed by our govt which therefore go into their own coffers.
Interesting theocb. They are approaching it from a racial equality standpoint not a Brexit standpoint, but nevertheless that quote runs counter to every dataset I've seen on the issue.
Do you know if they have new data, or are interpreting the same data differently?
thecaptain yes, there is no painless way back from where we are but that would be optimal. What I expect though is it to be pushed through, backed by Mail, Sun, Telegraph and Express and bleats of **"we won you lost get over it", regardless of the consequences. & there's unlikely to be a trade deal as it required 27 unanimity.
** not to forget "enemies of the people", and "we're going global!!!".
Yep in an import dominated economy the EU tariffs on us hurt our business because the EU can make it themselves or find other suppliers, where as UK tariffs still hurt us because we can't/don't make it ourselves. The UK tariffs are effectively a bit like raising VAT - except they act in the whole price.
Now over time we will learn to make things ourselves (because we can't afford them otherwise) and that position will change. But that will take years, maybe decades.
In the meantime - you're paying.
oh look the laws are the laws....
oh look the laws are the laws....
Fog in the Channel, Europe cut off.
I have to say that the negotiating on both sides has the air of being rather petty & childlike..
Aren't there any adults available to handle this please??
It's too important to leave to the kindergarten to handle!
I have to say that the negotiating on both sides has the air of being rather petty & childlike..
Problem is that in many areas you have a framework established and that works, many of these are overseen by European courts. The UK wants out, so why would the EU rewrite the working framework to suit one country?
Air safety, this is the framework if you don't want to be a part of it that is your choice, but the framework is what it is.
To make a change is going to cost money, who is going to pay?
Now over time we will learn to make things ourselves (because we can't afford them otherwise)
Jolly good and once we've done that we can build a beautiful wall to rival Trumps.
To make a change is going to cost money, who is going to pay?
The consumer I imagine.
I have to say that the negotiating on both sides has the air of being rather petty & childlike..
Even more reason why it is bad for the UK as we have such a weak hand.
Airlines are just the start.
Jamby, ninfers and chewie - come in, need some reassurance, over.
Even if it Colonel Melchett style "if all else fails a pigheaded refusal to looks facts in the face will see us through" reassurance.
Jolly good and once we've done that we can build a beautiful wall to rival Trumps
Yes, a wall around the whole island. That would give British people jobs for years. The flaw is they wouldn't want the jobs so we would have to get those pesky immigrants to build it for us. That will play havoc with net immigration numbers for a few years.
Yes, a wall around the whole island.
Well no need to rush into it. We might be able to shortcut it along the Scottish border.
Well no need to rush into it. We might be able to shortcut it along the Scottish border.
No need for a wall, we have a big moat now, just need to deal with those pesky things that let foreigners in. Blow up the channel tunnel (owned by the french so no issue there) blow up dover, felistow, liverpool, etc etc
To be safe better make the runways unusable just incase anyone trys to sneak in.
More seriously ID cards, how long till they reappear because they are the only realistic way of proving who has right to remain?
What i read earlier about putting more controls in the hands of employers and landlords. Straight back to the days of no blacks no Irish no dogs. IF you're an employer it becomes very easy to say i won't employ foreigners in case i get fined.
Only one part of one of the islands I suspect
I don't see the EU as being petty. More realistic and hard headed.
The UK leaving the EU is a massive inconvenience and some cost to the EU. The EU hold all the cards. Why should they alter their rules to favour the UK at a increased cost to the EU?
I don't see the EU as being petty. More realistic and hard headed.The UK leaving the EU is a massive inconvenience and some cost to the EU. The EU hold all the cards. Why should they alter their rules to favour the UK at a increased cost to the EU?
Their starting negotiating stance is a very threatening one - I'd hardly call that realistic or hard headed, rather hot-headed & childish.
"They are my toys & if you won't play by MY rules I'm taking them away".....normally ends up with having no-body to play with.
Making threats, being bolshy & aggressive won't help anyone in the long run!
Pretty much everything the EU has come out with has been on this tone...the UK has not exactly been a model of restraint either....but hey-ho when you let the kids play on their own what do you expect?
I honestly don't see the EU stance as threatening, there has been all sorts of contradictory bluster from the UK side. It wasn't the EU that brought up war reparations and said that WTO terms would be just fine. The only way that leaving the EU would not be damaging to the UK would be if it was arranged to be membership-in-all-but-name, which May has repeatedly ruled out.
The EUs starting position is pretty much "these are the rules, why should we change them to your advantage when you are leaving the EU?"
Can any of the leavers on here point to one single concrete thing that is working to the UKs advantage to counter all the thngs going against
so far we have the most profitable 20% of financial services industry is going to relocate away from london, all new nuclear power station building including hinkley is going to have to stop, serious loss of NHS staff that are EU citizen, forecasts of serious losses to gdp ranging from a few % well into double figures just to name a few
Any concrete good news? After all its going to be such a success this leaving the EU that surely the good news must be rolling in just our biased press are not reporting it.
EU's behaviour has been entirely reasonable IMO.
But that won't stop the rabid press stoking up the enmity the next couple of years. They're sharpening their pencils right now.
We're not just winding back to 100 years ago when Germany was the enemy, we're going back 300 when it was everyone.
Even the suggestion that we might be able to retain our "EU citizenship" was somehow considered a hostile act by some of the brexiteers...
We're not just winding back to 100 years ago when Germany was the enemy, we're going back 300 when it was everyone.
Including us Scots 8)
Can any of the leavers on here point to one single concrete thing that is working to the UKs advantage to counter all the things going against
*points*
[b]ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE!!!![/b]
Fair point igm, the vitriol Farage and the leaver-ultras have for Sturgeon is staggering.
Wouldn't blame you at all for voting to break from the UK.
The only way that leaving the EU would not be damaging to the UK would be if it was arranged to be membership-in-all-but-name, which May has repeatedly ruled out.
& I think she's damned us all with her arrogance..
*looks around*
Where?
[url= https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/22/eus-chief-negotiator-sets-three-conditions-for-brexit-trade-talks-to-start ]https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/22/eus-chief-negotiator-sets-three-conditions-for-brexit-trade-talks-to-start[/url]
Lets see how this goes down.
Tenuous, that article is really dumb. Any future tariffs on imports do not go to the EU! THey are tariffs imposed by our govt which therefore go into their own coffers
True. I was considering it from the point of view of how well it illustrated the impact of tariffs and currency devaluation on the costs to the average person, the "man in the street", that was put far too nebulously by the remain campaign.
Maybe while they're on lockdown the MPs can engage on some quiet reflection on the mess they're creating for our kids.
^^ perhaps that was a bit insensitive since people are hurt and we don't know the full facts yet. Apologies.
The problem is that a lot of the leavers I run into including Bob are a bit "flat earth" its difficult to hold a constructive discussion when the individual you are talking with believes the following-
A. Price increase of diesal/electricity is down to profiteering and a "pound is still a pound"
B. No one needs to visit Europe what's the point?
C. Employers all make loads of money and just need to stump up bigger wages.
D. Foreigners are nicking jobs
This is from a man who told his 11 year old daughter that if she went on the French school trip she would spend all day in a classroom with French teachers? So she sat for a week in a classroom on her own in England. Imagine what she thought of all the other kids photos when they can back.
Sorry but a lot of people are just thick.
I think we loose site of the "Bobs" on here (both sides of the argument) people who do not understand exchange rates, inflation, interest rates and hardly well positioned to make a call on what's economically beneficial about leave or remain we can argue (reasonably) on here until the cows come home (if the dairy farmers get bailed out) but the simple fact remains (this is probably not going to go down well) that poorly educated, uninformed people made a protest vote. It makes me laugh that people turn up on TV (Question time etc) stating they knew exactly what they voted for? Yet no one can actually articulate this. We should be ashamed that these people have been mislead, manipulated and told blatant lies to ensure a vote that will benefit the ideology of a minority and the wealth of the rich. Ninfan, Jamba I understand your arguments they just don't apply to the Bob's.
mating, maybe a touch, but they would do well to wonder if reducing cooperation with european bodies makes us more or less safe.
The Bobs are an issue, I suspect they don't usually vote but they did this time and they won so they get what they want. "Simple as. End of" as they would probably say. Whether it's for right or wrong is probably not material to them, might is right and these aren't the kind of people to admit to a mistake.
So did any of our tame leavers find some positive news about leaving to go with all the bad news?
No positive news yet, is there? Only bad news that might not be bad news if you squint a bit.
Well according to the leavers its a massive opportunity and wiull be great for the UK so given the bad news is flowing in I would have thought the good news would be as well?
[url= https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/22/shoe-retailer-brantano-goes-into-administration-with-1000-jobs-at-risk ]https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/22/shoe-retailer-brantano-goes-into-administration-with-1000-jobs-at-risk[/url]
more good news, i am not saying Brexit broke the company, but that and rates and wages etc all helped. So that is another 1000people looking for work.
Ok, so the rich will get rich and we can flog them 7 series cars, but the reasonably well off will be screwed so no point selling 1 series and minis.
Nice of BMW to be honest about where they see things going.
which are based on the UKL vehicle platform.
Are those the ones (guessing) made in the UK?
Well according to the leavers its a massive opportunity and wiull be great for the UK so given the bad news is flowing in I would have thought the good news would be as well?
Re the bad news they say "got to expect a little transitional turmoil".
and reading that comment a bit further, competitive models may not have a successor??? So what does that mean for Cowley and the entire Mini range????
don't know but I've presumed for a while the car factories are moving to Czech Rep., Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania or wherever. that's one reason those guys will be vetoing the trade deal.
another really positive article in the FT
https://www.ft.com/content/e7c69670-0f0c-11e7-b030-768954394623
Not sure how the paywall works, i think you get some free but not many.
The Bob's are a burden not an asset, their work will be automated/off shored they then become an overhead - an operational cost an will need to be phased out
Sad but true.
British empire, transportation to the colonies, it's the way forward I tell you.
test
More pointless EU red tape.
Suck it up, British bees. That's what winning feels like.
I met a real life Brexiter last night.
My aged Uncle is on a coach trip with his lady-friend at stayed near us so I took my Mum over.
Lady-friend ticked absolutely every box:
- late 70's
- West Yorkshire
- lives in a bungalow
- too many foreigners here, quote "Bradford is like been in ****stan"
- we should never have joined (the EU)
- bring back grammar schools
- our kids are been left behind 'cos there's so many others who don't speak English
- no work because of all the foreigners taking our jobs (although she also commented how the Poles just come here for the benefits)
And both were early retired before 60 due to been paid off from ex-state businesses.
Oh, and Scotland can't be independent because it can't afford to be not supported by England.
I didn't ask if they read the DM...
But at least she wasn't a xenophobic racist, eh BR?
I think for many older people a leave vote was simple a vote for the rose-tinted nostalgia of youth.
Perhaps they're right, perhaps it was all better then, but time only goes forwards.
Someone "very close to me" voted on this basis. She did reconsider, a little, when I asked her to think what was best for her young grand-daughter's future rather than her own past, but she'd already postal voted by then so it was too late.
Brexishambled going well i see
I thought we were overwhelmed with patriotic do gooders jumping at the chance ....
.... Maybe it's their lack of qualifications?
Lack of inclination...?
If your only qualification is blind optimism then I think you might be under qualified for the role...
Reading the article, seems the NAO are happy for Brexit to be called, off. Haven't got the staff and capability to do it.
Is it any surprise, unemployment is low and any people capable of doing the job will be otherwise employed at the moment.
Is it any surprise, unemployment is low and any people capable of doing the job will be otherwise employed at the moment.
It's OK Brexit have it covered
[img]
[/img]With serious experience in finance/banking, food/agriculture and international politics (they don't like it up 'em) what could go wrong?
We're [s]not[/s] all doomed
oldmanmtb - Member
I think we loose site of the "Bobs" on here (both sides of the argument) people who do not understand exchange rates, inflation, interest rates and hardly well positioned to make a call on what's economically beneficial about leave or remain we can argue (reasonably) on here until the cows come home (if the dairy farmers get bailed out) but the simple fact remains (this is probably not going to go down well) that poorly educated, uninformed people made a protest vote...
You don't need any of that info, just one salient piece of information.
There has not been a intra European war in over 70 years.
Peace trumps all IMO.
seems the NAO are happy for Brexit to be called off
Their view of the Government seems even dimmer than mine.
mattjg - MemberSuck it up, British bees. That's what winning feels like.
Bob can retrain into a new career in pollination
Heseltine's latest gaff.... surely it's time he stuck to the vintage port and leaves politics to people whose attitudes are not stuck in the 1940's
Anyone who can get to one of the events tomorrow, please do your absolute best to do so. This is nowhere near over and we're on the right side of history.
Heseltine's latest gaff.... surely it's time he stuck to the vintage port and leaves politics to people whose attitudes are not stuck in the 1940's
Progress over the Brexiters who are in the 1840's i would suggest.
more good news, i am not saying Brexit broke the company, but that and rates and wages etc all helped. So that is another 1000people looking for work.
It hastened it. A failing retailer with a business model that was adequate for the early 2000's but not the latter part of this decade (out of town, specialist, behind the game ecommerce-wise). But the real speeding up effect will be the fact that the own brand stuff will be far eastern and thus paid for in dollars. FX rate 22/06/16 = one pound was worth pretty much 1.5 dollars. Now it is worth 1.25. Take even a healthy company and put a 20% increase on its main costs and see what happens. It's not rocket science.
The big boys will end up doing better, they always do. The marquee retailers often have lower than 'fair' rents or rent-frees as they attract customers to an area. The smaller guys then make up the short-fall with higher rents. So the big boys get richer and the little guys go under. The net effect on the consumer is reduced choice and more potential for the big guys to form pseudo-cartels and bang, up go prices. The consumer always loses.
The effects of this fiasco will be very, very damaging.
The big boys will end up doing better, they always do.
Especially once the tories get us out of this pesky EU with all its rules. I assume that's why they're suddenly been so keen to leave anyway.
[I]Is it any surprise, unemployment is low and any people capable of doing the job will be otherwise employed at the moment. [/I]
The changes to off-payroll working in the public sector (and public sector contracts) won't have helped either, especially as they're talking of a load of fixed-term work rather than perm jobs.
Especially once the tories get us out of this pesky EU with all its rules. I assume that's why they're suddenly been so keen to leave anyway.
The Government campaigned to Remain. The current PM is "suddenly keen" to leave as that's what the result of the largest democractic excersize the UK has ever seen instructed her to do.
I don't see democracy just racists, xenophobes, delusion and lies.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-regulations-michael-gove-environment-drugs-a7649041.html Welcome to what the tories want
The Government campaigned to Remain. The current PM is "suddenly keen" to leave as that's what the [s]result of the largest democractic excersize the UK has ever seen[/s] Daily Mail instructed her to do.
FTFY