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May has been quite clear, she is following the result of the referendum whilst trying to preserve a sensible and productive trading relationship for both parties. It is some of the European leaders who are talking about the need for "punishment"
I've read some of the words strung together that May uses, they contain very little and what they do contain is often contradictory or looking for things that are not available (Free trade without movement of people for example).
May et al have used the threat of hard brexit repeatidly, many EU leaders have simply repeated that it is not possible for the UK to enjoy the benifits of membership from outside and that they would be seeking a relationship where the EU benifits. The majority of the punishment lines come from the interpreation of the Pro Brexit press.
I've read some of the words strung together that May uses, they contain very little and what they do contain is often contradictory or looking for things that are not available (Free trade without movement of people for example).
Comprehension isn't a strong suit then - best not to advertise it.
Really it's been all over some of them, then there are the bojo prosecco wars.
It was also Johnson that spoke of punishment beatings.
The divisions within the Tories also causes confusion,Johnson, and Fix contradictory statements about WTO, Davies empty promises on EU citizens with people like IDS and Rees-Mogg attacking the judiciary or anyone who might threaten their precious ego war with Johnny foreigner.
While Mays broken promise to consult with devolved nations over Brexit was repeatedly cited by Sturgeon yesterday, May can hardly complain that the indyref 2 announcement blindsided her when she has shutout everyone else in pursuit of her [s] jingoistic[/s] red white and blue Brexit .
Love that newsnight kept s****ing that the Queen has to sign the Brexit bill into law in Norman French
May's words are full of empty sound bites and mutually exclusive desires.
The so called "punishment" espoused by the Brexy press is just the EU saying club members get club benefits and those not in the club don't. They've even said there are different levels of club membership which come with different levels of benefit - but if you don't want to be a member, abide by the rules and pay your club subs, then you aren't a member.
May is another bully, just trying to bully her way through.
And as for the will of the people - it was about half and half, a little more leave, but certainly not a mandate for spectacular change. Start reflecting that and I'll start believing you are reflecting the referendum.
Now I did find a list of Brexy businesses to avoid trading with if anyone is interested.
And if you are hiring, I think it is legitimate to assume that Brexiness reflects a lack of judgement and hire someone else.
Small but reasonable things you can do.
How unpatriotic of you igm. 🙂
I know. 8)
But actions should have consequences..
(And I've been trying to help dig this country out of the hole it's getting itself into before there's too much pain, and the Brexies have been conspicuously absent - any Brexies who have been assisting with disaster recovery feel free to pipe up now)
May is perfectly clear as mefty points out. Step away from the froth and the path is well argued. And, again as mefty points out mike, all you have done with your specific criticism is to highlight the fact that your comprehension is incomplete.
Pretty impressive so far: delivering very difficult legislation, unscathed and on time. Rare for any government to do this let alone one doing something it didn't want to do.
Need to check on timing though. DD alluded to specific reasons re timing and a bit of sleight of hand timing which - SNP silly games aside - is usually a bad idea. We should simply play this straight, not screw about with announcement dates. This and get agreement in rights of EU citizens nailed in 1Q of negotiations.
May is perfectly clear
She's being clear in not saying much of substance. It's all well and good saying 'we're going to get a great deal' but we need to know exactly what a great deal means to you, and how you are going to get it.
We are heading into a huge unknown, with only ONE person's idea of what we want out of it. How the flying **** is that good management? The fate of 65m people resting on the ideas of just one. It's absolutely appalling. What the **** has this country's parliamentary process come to? We might as well have a ruling monarch.
Mol, you could read the papers and listen to the news.
May & co are seeking a bespoke deal. The outcome will depend on negotiations. Both sides have artupiclauted potions that are unsustainable from which they will negotiate a compromise. Nothing complicated so far.
Management? So far delivery on time and as stated (despite having a team of bozos to deal with) - how often does a government do this.
The idea that this is about one person is pure fantasy and simply shows the depths that you need to descend to to avoid accepting the result. Poor show.
Free Trade: Of course tariff free trade is possible without freedom of movement. Services are tariff free under WTO rules. If you look at our trade with the EU 75% of services are NOT financial. On cars/components we export £15bn to EU and import £40bn. A tariff free deal on cars/manufacturing in hugely beneficial to EU
The EU have stated that Freedom of Movement is required for full tariff free access to THE single market. The UK has responded in the obvious way which is to say we are not looking for that, just a subset
May's clearly said enough to upset the SNP, in her rush to appease her anti EU zealots, shes managed to provoke Sturgeon into launching another referendum at the worst possible time.
She has indeed managed to get the Brexit legislation through unopposed & on schedule.
I'm not sure that really speaks to her competence though as the opposition are not in a position to oppose anything at the moment. But I'll give her the benefit of the doubt in that one.
She's failed utterly to settle the EU citizens rights question.
Already provoking bad will here and abroad (Davies was a bad joke yesterday when defending this stance)
If may can oversee the hard Brexit she's talking up and see Scotland leave the union....
at least she'll be able to relive Cameron of his '[b]Worst Post-War PM[/b]' title
May & co are seeking a bespoke deal. The outcome will depend on negotiations. Both sides have artupiclauted potions that are unsustainable from which they will negotiate a compromise. Nothing complicated so far.
Some vague idea about what she expects to get would help though...............yes, yes, I know it's a negotiation, and I know it's a bespoke deal (obviously all the off the shelf deals other EU bailers have got isn't right for us). But what is the UK aiming for?
And as for May, anyone who wanted to be PM after the Brexit vote would have to be a lunatic, so she's not doing to bad considering............
May's clearly said enough to upset the SNP
Saying "good morning" would be sufficient to do that.
May & co are seeking a bespoke deal. The outcome will depend on negotiations.
Like I said - vague.
So far delivery on time
Delivery of what, exactly?
Look, I appreciate lots of people know much more than me on this, but you've still not really said anything have you? We're still completely in the dark. All we know is that they intend to negotiate a deal. Well, of course they are - but what we all want to know is for what they are aiming.
'The best possible deal' really tells us nothing, does it? Define 'best'?
May & co are seeking a bespoke deal
I've yet to see any details of what they are (realistically) seeking.
From where I'm sitting, it looks like the "plan" is to make some absurd demands, refuse any reasonably discussion, and hope that the press will choose to pin the blame on the rest of the EU for the whole mess.
The deal involves cake. From the snippets of news I've seen on this May will be trading the rights of EU citizens for cake (probably aiming for a chocolate cake).
Really? .. There won't be a deal as the EU will want to make it fairly painful and a royal pain in the ass to leave. We will be told we will get a decent deal involving cake but it's more likely to turn out to be a shit sandwich.
The EU died this week anyway lads, Erdogan has made it pretty inevitable that Wilders wins and thus Marine Le Pen as well.
Game over.
The EU died this week anyway lads, Erdogan has made it pretty inevitable that Wilders wins and thus Marine Le Pen as well.Game over
yeah interesting timing that....
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Listen... we're getting a red, white and blue deal. So its bound to be absolutely brilliant!! Because everything red, white and blue is absolutely bloody brilliant!!
Except red, white and blue French things! Red, white and blue French things are terrible, evil, decadent, lazy and smelly!
Is that all clear now?
+1 Kimbers.
For the EU to survive now, the EU technocrats need to exploit these new enemies and respond with their own brand of pan european pro western populism.
Otherwise it's done.
Finally.... [url= http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/animals/animals-headlines/may-to-send-article-50-letter-strapped-to-a-bulldog-20170314124061 ]some detail![/url]
[quote=Tom_W1987 ]The EU died this week anyway lads, Erdogan has made it pretty inevitable that Wilders wins and thus Marine Le Pen as well.
Game over.
Scary. Apart from that Wilders won't win even if he wins. Might make for a tricky coalition government and new elections, but there appears to be close to zero chance of Wilders becoming PM.
No but this will only boost the size of his vote and that will influence the French election.
Over the next decade we are going to witness an alliance on three fronts against the EU and the US - Russia, Turkey and China - in an attempt to decrease our influence. We may also see the kinds of skirmishes that we saw in the Ukraine. And we will be caught with our pants down.
Mol - delivery of what was asked by the electorate. She said that she would trigger A50 be end 1Q17. Despite a rock ride, this is on track.
What details do you want? No one has done this before. We are seeking to get a unique deal that maximises our interests. We wont get it obviously, but we will get close after some compromise,
None of the four existing frameworks for accessing the single market are perfect so it makes perfect sense to seek a bespoke deal. That is what we are doing.
And this is despite the noise of all the whning - its not fair the thickos vote out - all around her. Not a bad effort for someone who was a pretty average/poor home sec.
What details do you want?
What kind of deal they are aiming for.
A comprehensive free trade deal plus a new customs union
Keep the existing laws to start with and then decide what to do with them
Reduce/end the jurisdiction of the CJEU
"Control'' the level of immigration - not that is was uncontrolled before
Secure reciprocal rights for citizens and maintain current workers' rights
Cooperate on security/terrorism etc
That's off the top of my head....you can google the rest...
From that what can we draw about the future direction of the UK? Nothing. What will things be like in 5 years' time? We have no idea.
The ECJ thing is problematic because it limits our involvement in so many cooperative ventures where the ECJ is the final arbiter, eg the new patent system, Medicines agency, euratom?
Shes also looking to ensure no hard border for Ireland- which Sturgeon will use for her indy model too
leaving the ECJ is completely stupid and quite possible very difficult
tjagain - Member
leaving the ECJ is completely stupid and quite possible very difficult
but Mays tunnel vision about the european courts is a legacy from her embaressments as home sec
likewise her singlemartket/FOM stance
Well she will get a big bonus point is she can pull off Irish border question - apparently there is some smart technology in the offing, but we shall see.
The arbiter issue is important too - as I say, no one has done this before and lots to do. Glad we can get on with it instead of just moaning about the bad result
From that what can we draw about the future direction of the UK? Nothing. What will things be like in 5 years' time? We have no idea.
Err, we will not be members of the EU but will have access to the single market (and vice versa) through a unique deal that will be negotiated between now and 3/19 and probably beyond.
At that point, the body that we are negotiating with will most likely be very different, with different objectives, different paces of integration and most likely new currency regimes. So we will have all wasted a lot of time and money
Tant pis
maintain current workers' rights
I have serious doubts, that's red tape that needs to be removed...
Irish Border will be a f*** up technology doesn't help most companies. As for Dover! Proper customs checks on current trade levels?
we shall see - I am no tech expert - but will be interested to see what solutions may come up.
bringing solutions is so much more refreshing and helpful than whining on about problems and what we wish the world looked like.
On a more important note, whats Old Jezza saying on all this?
teamhurtmore - Member
we shall see - I am no tech expert - but will be interested to see what solutions may come up.
Based on 'Go Home Van May's past form and her disregard for EU citizens , it'll be some giant barcode scanners at every one of the 100 odd border points
and a tagging programme for the population
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😉
ECJ is not the same as the ECHR which is the one that temporarily stopped deportations, but it is perfectly common to accept that ECJ has jurisdiction in certain specific matters but not others
Kimbers all the disregard for citizens rights has come from the EU. Leave campaign and May have made it clear EU could remain if EU grants the same. They have declined to make any concrete remarks. EU playing petty politics with 3 million of their own citizens lives.
By the way one fascinating fact to emerge from Brexit is that EU students studying in the UK are obliged to have private health care under EU law ! Something the vast majority where not aware of and do not have.
As mefty says its perfectly possible for patent law or trade to be specifically bound to the ECJ. I have invested on numerous transactions governed by New York Law. Done on a deal by deal or sector by sector basis.
"Bespoke deal". You'll get the dregs you're given.
The UK has made it clear that the plan is to indulge in fiscal and social dumping to be more competitive. I hope the 27 will negotiate a deal on my behalf that negates that.
No they havent - but dont let that stop you making things up. That was merely posed as one outcome if sensible negotiations failed. They wont. people are not THAT stupid.
Edukator have you been following the Polish - EU unity ? Erdogan is running rings round the EU at present and as the weather improves the risk of another million people arrivig in Greece looks more and more likely. Yoir attitude above is exactly why I say don't bother with negotiations its not worth the time and effort just go for WTO and focus our positive energy elsewhere.
Also its emerged in the German press that Merkel and the Dutch (when EU President) agreed to take 250,000 Syrian Refugees per anum into the EU withoit telling the rest if the EU. They agreed to present it as a "surprise" Turkish demand 😯
mefty - Member
ECJ is not the same as the ECHR which is the one that temporarily stopped deportations, but it is perfectly common to accept that ECJ has jurisdiction in certain specific matters but not others
Nah, - that is a very sane position but alas not brexie friendly
It comes back to the same fundamental Tory flaws that Cameron failed to fix with his referendum
Unable to silence his 'swivel eyed loons' May is still beholden them and to the right wing press theyve courted for so long
The minute theres a Mail/Express/telegraph headline suggesting the evil EU courts* still have dominion over this fair and free land, May will be forced to back down as the usual brexie rent-a-zealot; IDS,Rees-Mogg, Gove etc come out on the attack for subverting the will of the people
*Im well aware that May's humiliations as home sec were thanks to her incompetence dealing with the ECHR- the tabloids, not bothered about such distinctions
Kimbers all the disregard for citizens rights has come from the EU. Leave campaign and May have made it clear EU could remain if EU grants the same. They have declined to make any concrete remarks. EU playing petty politics with 3 million of their own citizens lives.
What utter nonsense - Even in jamba land thats a whopper
The EU cannot legally negotiate anything until a50 is triggered and May has made it quite clear she is using the EU citizens in the UK as bargaining pieces
I think the Germans have managed the Syrian refugees pretty well. As they did the Balkan refugees, many of whom have now been able to return. Our local Syrian refugees are grateful and causing no trouble, my neighbour helps out. If you look at teh people causing trouble they are more often African economic migrants than Syrians and Merkel is doing here best to negotiate with countries of origin for their return as that would have prevented the Berlin attack.
jambalaya - Member
Kimbers all the disregard for citizens rights has come from the EU. Leave campaign and May have made it clear EU could remain if EU grants the same. They have declined to make any concrete remarks. EU playing petty politics with 3 million of their own citizens lives.
Rubbish.
The EU have quite correctly said no one has asked to leave yet and we're not doing pre-negotiations before they do. As the party seeking to start the negotiations it is up to the UK to start them, and it would have been quite reasonable to say "before we start we're not arguing over this" with regard to EU citizens. It would not be reasonable to expect the EU to say "with regard to these negotiations that we aren't going to start here is what they aren't going to cover".
Jamba your story makes a good headline in the Mail but has no intellectual currency when we talk about playing with people's lives.
As to whether they are decent bargaining chips - well that's why May is treating them as she is.
Morally banckrupt Brexies again.
By the way, did anyone else notice in the clip of May that R4 keep playing today that her voice went all wobbly towards the end?
Sounded very much like Sturgeon has got her rattled.
May's problem is the will of the people line doesn't work in Scotland. Sturgeon is saying Scotland elected the SNP on a manifesto promise for a referendum (I'd need to check) and the will of the people on the EU was very clear north of the border.
Sturgeon can simply say she is respecting the will of the people.
the 1.6m who voted to stay in EU or the 2m who voted to stay in the UK?
which "will" do you want?
The using people as bargaining chips is very one sided.
A Brit applying for French nationality will met few obstacles and some of those can be waived at the discretion of the person at the prefecture. The cost is less than the difference between a French passport and renewing the more expensive British one so you save money.
A Frenchman applying for British nationality... lots of hoops (I tried the test out of curiosity and failed it) and I saw over £1200 quoted earlier in the thread.
the 1.6m who voted to stay in EU or the 2m who voted to stay in the UK?which "will" do you want?
Feel free to continue quoting half the informationa and showing yourself for what you are THM. Now quote how many voted to leave the Uk and how many voted to leave Europe. But that wouldn't suit your closet Brexit, anti-Scottish agenda would it.
Let's face it folks we are just a bunch of self centred **
I never realised we had so many ignorant **
Second time in my life that I have been blindsided by the reality. (The other was a director of a business I was part of - at least he was easily led)
No matter how rosy the outcome we are not better people for this - refugees (of our making) EU migrants (we need them) are vilified just to say we are "Great Britain" we ALL need to hang our heads in shame - your grown ups for ***** sake.
what you are THM
what's that then maestro?
according to Alex today, 1.6m is an overwhelming mandate. imagine what 2m must be??
Only 1m voted leave in Scotland THM. So 1.6 is pretty good mandate if not overwhelming. The indy vote was 2m to 1.6M [b]before[/b] the Brexit vote. I think Sturgeon is right to retest opinion.
THM - I think there's been an election in Scotland since the UK referendum (May 2016 springs to mind). Those who voted no to independence in 2014 have been superseded by the 2016 vote in terms of her position. So she can claim those who voted to remain in the EU and those who returned independence favouring parties - who as you know between SNP and Greens make up a majority in the Holyrood parliament.
For myself I oppose both Scottish independence and Brexit, but I can understand those who support independence particularly now May is trying to bully things through.
May clearly is rattled and has also made several huge mistakes politically - its as if she knows nothing of Scotland nor do her advisers! Her speech in Scotland a week or two ago was a masterpiece in alienating Scots.
I really think she simply does not understand the whole independence debate - but then as this thread shows few people do
common mistakes - the SNP are the Yes campaign. Untrue.
Its all about anti English sentiment - untrue
Its the foolish people of Scotland being led up a gumtree by Sturgeon - untrue
etc etc
TJ - indeed.
Even as an anti-independence expat of 24 years (Yorkshire, great beer) I can see a fair amount of that.
The interesting thing is that most of the arguments the Brexies on here make for leaving the EU, if transposed to the independence debate ring equally true (note that I do not believe they ring true in either case). The only one where there is a substantive issue is currency and central banking. A worrying situation is developing.
So May is touring the UK to forge a consensus. How the hell is she going to do that? She must not understand how fundamental this is to some of us.
And to honour the will of the people? You are only honouring the will of the 52% and utterly disregarding that of the 48%. Forging a consensus would mean compromising, with a soft Brexit, wouldn't it? If you want to meet me half way I'm definitely in.
The interesting thing is that most of the arguments the Brexies on here make for leaving the EU, if transposed to the independence debate ring equally true
No they don't - the Union and the EU are two totally different thing - in design, function and result. Perhaps the only thing they share is the term "union"
Yes, they do.
No, they don't.
Yes, they do.
I can see igm's point but you'll have to explain yours THM.
"taking back control"
"investing more in the health service"
"no more paying the bureaucrats in London/Brussels"
etc. .
Mostly hot air of course but at least an independent Scotland could enjoy the benefits of being in the EU which staying in the UK excludes.
So May is touring the UK to forge a consensus. How the hell is she going to do that? She must not understand how fundamental this is to some of us
apparently she was always going to do this and absolutely didnt plan to trigger a50 this week 🙄
THM - the reason you disagree with me is you're being rational.
The Brexy arguments made no rational sense- pure jingoistic emotion.
Actually the arguments make slightly more sense applied to independence - but it's very marginal.
PS One was set up as a trading arrangement with a common currency and a central administrative body, but separate law, education systems etc.
The other is the EU.
Both have helped prevent wars with the "unions" - the RU more successfully.
Only one deliberately suppressed the people's and cultures of all but the dominant member (it wasn't the EU).
And I'm pro-UK
So May is touring the UK to forge a consensus. How the hell is she going to do that? She must not understand how fundamental this is to some of us
Where's she going to be so I can tell her to go back to her Westminster village and sit on the naughty step until Brexit is cancelled.
That would reflect the will of this person.
I posted on my FB account that if any of my 'foreign' friends and ex-colleagues are intending to stay in the UK and need any help in their application (need information, dates, jobs etc), please don't hesitate to contact me.
Based on what I've been reading it seems that a lot of data is needed for the application.
I'd suggest that anyone else concerned can do the same 🙂
tjagain - Member
May clearly is rattled and has also made several huge mistakes politically - its as if she knows nothing of Scotland nor do her advisers! Her speech in Scotland a week or two ago was a masterpiece in alienating Scots.I really think she simply does not understand the whole independence debate -
this, in spades!
Shes a great PM for middle england, her anti-immigrant stance as home sec makes her perfect Daily Mail fodder and she stirs the loins of Sun & Torygraph reading Thatcher fans...
2 weeks ago in Glasgow you could almost hear Elgar as May embarked on her oratory to put the Scots in their place,
It obviously delighted the little englanders, she slipped in to massage their prostates with talk of a global Britain and a Brexshit for everyone, bringing them to a patriotic climax as she berated the SNP for their obsession with independence at any cost (apparently in some sort of parallel irony free universe) 😆
This is how Jambs reacted to her speech
May's speech was absolutely spot on re Scotland. Masterful in fact.
This is how scotland reacted to her speech
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and here we are with another referendum on the way
masterful
As Junkers is to the Daily Mail, Tory PMs are to Scotland?
kimbers - Member
This is how scotland reacted to her speech
You have forgotten the Scottish hero Mel Gibson with his battle cry Frreedddommm.
However, in terms of the old fashion conqueror you really have to give it to Edward I, also known as Edward Longshanks and the Hammer of the Scots. He did hammer them hard.
Is this the blood feud that has lasted until this day even James I as King for both Scotland & England is not enough to reduce the feud? After all James I was a Scottish King that was also the King of England was he not?
Which of the Scottish clans suffered the most during Edward I reign? I bet their descendants are the ones that are still fighting ... 😯
Well we will see how this all maps out. So far May has played a blinder and right now is looking rock solid as the PM post a big 2020 GE win. Remember all those "demands" from the EU that A50 was triggered immediately, all gone rather quiet 🙂 At least the Germans have been honest enough to say the EU budget needs revising come 2018 in responce to the reality that the UK will no longer be paying in come 2019.
Sturgeon did exactly what was expected, used the EU Referendum as an excuse for a do over. She surprised precisely no one.
May won't blink, the Indy Ref do-over will be in late 2019, September is my guess.
Personally I'd say an independent just got closer. Once may starts to hammer home the negotiations and leaves people behind the margin will swing. She may be popular with a sub set of the population but not many of them live north of the border and she has little to offer them. As we are in uncertain times perhaps the eu would welcome Scotland, as Ireland would the North making it simple for institutions to decide where to base for English speaking eu access.
mikewsmith - Member
Personally I'd say an independent just got closer.
Not when EU bureaucratic system is still an entity.
May has played a blinder and right now is looking rock solid as the PM post a big 2020 GE
oooops
what was it 29 seats being investigated for illegal spending
https://www.channel4.com/news/battlebus-conservatives-admit-election-expenses
Is someone standing in for chewkw who has gone of on holiday? I don't recognise the turn of phrase.
Queen to sign the A50 bill on Thursday
So much for the Brexy press suggesting A50 could have been triggered today then, eh Jamba.
Is that like jamba eternally predicting the imminent collapse of the EU?
kimbers - Member
Is that like jamba eternally predicting the imminent collapse of the EU?
Yep it will happen.... when the Eu collapses and the UK is out will the same when there was zero fall out from the US Sub Prime Mortgage issue?
Fallout from the eurozone implosion will be far larger than sub-prime / excessive bank leverage crises of 2007/8 which we still have not recovered from. The shift from excess consumer leverage via excess bank leverage to excess government debt is very clear to see. It's scary that Greece will be the largest soveriegn default ever and it's just the tip of the eurozone iceberg.
I hope you guys are spending prudently and have some rainy day savings, they will be needed Brexit or no Brexit
I hope you guys are spending prudently and have some rainy day savings, they will be needed Brexit or no Brexit
So being in or out of the EU has no bearing on the impact? Thats a change it's been one of your main reasons to get out hasn't it?
So yes in reality world econiomics impacts the UK regardless of how it sits politically.
I hope you guys are spending prudently and have some rainy day savings, they will be needed Brexit or no Brexit
Not much point, Jamba, in your scenario I can't see many banks being able to pay out any money and even if they do it will be worthless. The Euro stands a better chance than the pound as the UK isn't big or strong enough to support the pound.
You seem to forget that the UK is deeply in debt and Brexit is likely to compound the problem as the UK looks to be losing its export markets: US 20% tax announced by Trump, EU still unknown post Brexit, rest of world likely to join in.
Without EU membership the UK looks very much like Argentina. People slag off the Euro but as a zone its fundamental are strong and it's a very hard currency to attack. It took one investor to attack the pound and the value dropped by 10-15% IIRC.