[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

True - thats why we need to get on with it now to avoid....

THM, "hard brexshit" is the automatic outcome unless and until we manage to negotiate a new trade deal. Which given how long these things tend to take, and that this won't even start in earnest until the leaving terms are settled (eg: rights for existing residents, divorce bill, Irish border situation, etc etc) may be a long time in the future.

...if not quite. Things will obviously not stop and some artificial date in the middle of negotiations.

By that time, the EU will probably be engrossed in finding an alternative currency solution anyway so the whole thing will be absurdly complex then!!

Bliar lived up to his name with his speech today. Not up to Trumpian standards but who could that?

And we are now in the process of determining what model we want

No, we are in the process of finding out what May wants and we will have to deal with.

On the contrary, she has been dealt a hand by the voters with the red lines clear - FoM and ECJ etc. so she has to play the hand that has been dealt. If she is a good bridge player she may pull of some finesses. We shall see...

You have to deal with what is in front of you, not what you wish is in front of you. The public focused on FoM and ECJ, they were at the heart of the debate. You can't airbrush history.

she has been dealt a hand by the voters with the red lines clear - FoM and ECJ etc.

Did you not get the A3 version?

she has been dealt a hand by the voters with the red lines clear - FoM and ECJ

I can't see it as clear, to be honest. I she's using the vote as a mandate for what SHE wants, not trying to figure out what WE want.

Well that's your opinion.

Don't remember any of that on my ballot paper.

That's the problem, the out tick box was like that dr who psychic paper thing that showed you what you wanted to see. 🙁

she's using the vote as a mandate for what SHE wants, not trying to figure out what WE want.

Perhaps it's unwise to assume others share your values?

I would imagine she is thinking how the **** do I sort this bllx out?

I don't see as she's made any effort to ask any of us sort of brexit we want though has she?

What are you expecting?

I would expect some sort of debate, perhaps in parliament, perhaps some sort of attempt to find a cross-party consensus. Instead what we have is "brexit means brexit" and red lines invented on the hoof to appease the frothing kippers in the tory party.

So let's consider the evidence:

We have just had a national debate from which the factors that the winners focused on (immigration/FoM, ECJ/fake control, costs of membership) and didn't focus on (benefits of UK membership, minimal cost, economics, workers rights, environment issues etc) became brutally clear.

Do you expect the issues that the winners focused on to be ignored?

We then had Parliamentary debates during which the two main parties demonstrated that they cannot achieve intra-party consensus let alone cross- party consensus (other than respect the outcome) and another party achieved consensus around not respecting the result. Some others simple made mischief

How do expect to achieve consensus from this? What would it look like and how would it be presented in negotiations?

The SC ruled that triggering A50 was irrevocable (although bizarrely this is now being challenged)

So which bit of Brexshit means Brexshit can we ignore? What do you know that the SC judges did not?

Back to the first para, which of May's red lines have been made up rather than being at the core of the lengthy national debate?

FoM ?
Role of ECJ/control?
Which of these has been subsequently made up on the hoof ?

Sadly I agree with THM , immigration and taking back control were the reasons people voted leave .

I neither agree with the reasons nor give them with pleasure. They simply are what they are.

The "winners" quite clearly stated a whole lot of inconsistent nonsense. Like how no-one was talking about leaving the single market (Hannan for one). Of course there was no leaver manifesto so they could just make up any random crap with no risk of being held to account. But pretending that the leavers were all voting for <insert random policy choice> is just nonsense.

Whose pretending that?

We know what they were focused on...So did the Brexshiteers.

Shows how bad we were doesn't it? We should be ashamed shouldn't we?

How blair does not realise he is toxic and harms any cause he believes in is beyond me....he would do more good coming out as full on Brexit

Agree totally Junky. Funny thing is when I said that Molgrips decided it was a slur - that was the word he used. Molgrips I always post honestly, you may disagree with what Insa

People who disagree should indeed "rise up" and vote for a party with a manifesto pledge for the UK to rejoin the EU. That is assuming there will still be an EU to rejoin beyond 2020.

I can't believe people here are still going over their interpretations of why the UK voted leave. All the signs where there for years before and simply ignored.

Jam - you said this:

Remainers must see how desperate their situation is when Tony Blair is the leading political figure champioing fheir cause

That looks like an attempt to make Leave look good simply by associating Remain with an unpopular figure. In other words, the kind of thing that tabloid newspapers do. A comment calculated to manipulate sentiment to flatter your own side.

Deplorable in my book. The merits or otherwise of Brexit can stand on their own, with out such underhanded games. In fact they MUST, otherwise all we have is a mud-slinging competition.

Back to the first para, which of May's red lines have been made up rather than being at the core of the lengthy national debate?

Can you point to where Leave promised leaving the single market?

The vote leave website is still up. It says this:

"There is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it."

And this:

"We do not necessarily have to use Article 50 - we may agree with the EU another path that is in both our interests"

And this:

"The heart of what we all want is the continuation of [b]tariff-free[/b] trade with minimal bureaucracy. "

And this - Lolz!

"Instead of sending £350 million per week to Brussels, we will spend it on our priorities like the NHS and education."

The current plan represents a bit of a departure from that lot, don't you think?

Sorry mol, is there any link between the bit you chose to quote and the rest, other than they are in the same post?

You also seem to struggling with the distinction between membership of and access to. It really isnt that hard.

In the meantime, does this ring any bells

"Instead we seek the greatest possible access to it through a new, comprehensive, bold and ambitious Free Trade Agreement."

For a woman who campaigned (quietly) against vote leave she hasn't departed very far has she. Ok, she doesn't lie about £350m and tbf even Farrage had a problem with that unlike the other Brexshiteers

Do you expect the issues that the winners focused on to be ignored?

NHS?
More immigration from non-EU counties?
Or are we just looking for the issues that May strongly supported before the referendum… (despite not being a "winner")?
She was against ECJ and FoM, but wasn't in favour of leaving the EU.
Very weird, but there you have it.
Now, her side lost, but she gets to be PM, and make the government red lines match her own. Handy.

If you say so, others will continue to differ.

Handy is a very odd adjective to use, indeed possible one of the most inappropriate you could chose. Awkward would be much better since the red lines she has adopted and the goal that she seeks are incompatible

Thanks goodness this is now a negotiation, eh?

So we're leaving he EU (as people voted for) but have two extra red lines, from May, with no mandate, that prevents us getting even the kind of deal key Leave campaigners said we could get. May is limiting what we can achieve in the upcoming negotiations, in a way that people did not, have not, and would not vote for. And MPs have voted to allow her to carry on this path unchecked. Scared little people.

No mandate other than they were the key issues at the heart of what the leavers voted for. Odd that. But keep on making things up if it makes you feel better about it. (still valid despite the edits)

It won't change the result

P.s. go and reread what the red lines do and do not prevent. Google is your friend again. Alternatively refer to my link about 20 pages ago

On Blair, he won 2 General Election so don't underestimate him. With the current state of the Labour party anything is possible.

Blair won a very long time ago he is now is hugely unpopular figure, IMO hisnintervention is all aboit efo, he signed the Lisbon Treaty and approved the significant EU expansion and the Referendum with many Labour heartland voters have rejected those things. This hurts his enormous ego.

Worried your swindle is going to be discovered Jambalaya..

[img] [/img]

The point is not Blair, it's what he said. Play the ball not the man.

He has nothing to loose and everything to gain.
None of the current party leaders have won an election, he has. A bit like Trump He is good at campaigning.

This is a bit scary don't you think?
[url= https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/feb/17/brexit-vote-begins-to-bite-as-rising-food-and-fuel-bills-hit-retail-sales? ]https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/feb/17/brexit-vote-begins-to-bite-as-rising-food-and-fuel-bills-hit-retail-sales?[/url]

Don't worry, the government/brexiters will already be coming up with reasons why it is happening (and none of them will be because of Brexit) to keep the ignorant happy in their leave vote.

Not sure why the Vauxhall workers of Ellsmere Port or Luton are worried about their jobs when those areas voted leave. They must have fully considered the impact of their leave vote and how that might impact on any change in GM's business structure .... they have got back control after all.

It matters not that Blair has spat his dummy out or the fact that most of what he said was bleeding obvious, just like the vast majority of Brexit voters he/they have no political power or a way of gaining it.
This is the fundamental problem regardless of your political views we have an incumbent government that is likley to win the next GE. This government as Tony points out only has to pander to the rabid right. The implications for the rabid right of the Tory party of a hard brexit/WTO is not really significant *The Tories will look after Farmers by the way.
The further loss of manufacturing and increased automation will not lead to a rise in earnings, oddly the reduction in semi skilled labour from eastern Europe will drive some wages up and add inflationary costs. This misery for the working poor which will be significant leaves them with a UKIP protest vote and little else.

No amount of high level procrastination about post Brexit opportunities fixes the current political/economic problem of a one party state.

The biggest single mistake by the Brexit camp was peddling the myth that we actually have control of our economy - we don't external forces have an over riding effect (exchange rates WTO vauxhall Global legislafion)

Biggest con ever pulled off...

This is the fundamental problem regardless of your political views we have an incumbent government that is likley to win the next GE. This government as Tony points out only has to pander to the rabid right.

I had been thinking exactly this way as well myself, but, recently, this morning to be precise, have been wondering about the (sizeable) portion of Tory leaning voters who vote Tory mostly for economic reasons. Now, they aren't going to start voting for the current Labour Party… but wonder what may occur between now and next GE if our EU exit deal starts to look like a stinker… things move fast in politics right now. Blair is a spent force, and has no chance of making much difference himself, except for perhaps reminding people that pandering to the extremes of left and right are not the only ways to [s]do politics[/s] win elections.

You also seem to struggling with the distinction between membership of and access to. It really isnt that hard.

Please, leave out the implied insults. I don't want a row, just a nice discussion.

The point I am trying to make is that the leave campaign has statements promising tariff-free access to the single market. But now that May has decided FoM is a red line, she has prioritised that instead, which would make tariff-free access seem rather unlikely.

The deal we are getting is made up by May, and not the Leave campaign as they have all run away. And the promises and priorities of Leave are not necessarily being formed into policy.

Do you agree?

From the outside looking in
Downside list
Inflation
Job loss via Vauxhall EMA City etc
Reduced labour resources
Reduced Tax take
Increased borrowing
Increased interest rates

Upside list
? Anyone care to suggest a few things Jamby/Ninfan no pie in he sky bollocks just practical benefits for poor folks

One party state??? We have a government with a slender majority. Since when did that constitute a one party state.

We are truly living up to the remoaner tag line now and spouting more lies than Brexshiteers, which I thought was impossible. Talking of which:

Please, leave out the implied insults. I don't want a row, just a nice discussion.

No insults and no row. Mol, you keep making factually incorrect statements which prevent a discussion, nice or otherwise.

You cant agree or disagree with statements based on false premises. It is a waste of time.

So, do you agree with the rest of Mol's post?

So THM who is going to oust the Tories in the foreseeable?

No, there is nothing to agree or disagree with. Its a series of false premises.

The next election is 2020 IIRC - so lots to play for. The Tories will ultimately be blamed for Brexshit, so could well be close again. In the meantime, they have a slim majority coupled with the challenge of implementing something they (as a government) campaigned against - some one party state ^2

So THM you can see Labour getting sorted in less than 3 years tk become electable?

Or UKIP
Or the Lib Dems

Really

A week is a long time in politics, so three years is...

We shall see. At the moment, no. Still that doesn't change the fact that in our so-called 'one party state' we have a government with a slim majority that is split over the major issue of the day and that recently lost its PM and leader having lost the referendum vote. I am trying to imagine what an alternative to our one party state might look like 😉

THM - on the red lines, immigration was the thing for the vocal minority (as proved by many polls) so TM making that a red line is deliberately screwing over the UK. FOM means access to a lot of things, as you say it's all down to negotiation but TM has ruled stuff out from the start that means the UK is aiming for less than the Norway model from the start. Is that what she told parliament? The UK is now forced to accept a major change to it's status that will be negotiated by a government with no mandate. If you want to claim that the UK voted for something specific your either talking shit or deluded. there was one vote with one question at no point was there anything more. If you think there was then maybe start with some pictures for the hard of understanding.

Mol, you keep making factually incorrect statements which prevent a discussion, nice or otherwise

Well if I'm wrong, correct me (nicely) and if I disagree, I'll tell you why, also nicely. The very definition of a discussion 🙂

Now, I still don't understand where I'm being incorrect. The leave campaign promised certain things, and May is giving us something different based on different priorities, no?

No

Not sure why the Vauxhall workers of Ellsmere Port or Luton are worried about their jobs when those areas voted leave. They must have fully considered the impact of their leave vote and how that might impact on any change in GM's business structure

Mike, perhaps it might be helpful to review events

1. The government made a commitment to hold an in-out referendum and to respect the result whatever the outcome
2. The government, including TM, sought a mandate to keep our membership of the EU
3. They were not granted their wish - they lost, perhaps I should add "we" lost
4. The voters decided that the UK should leave the EU on the basis of three core issues: immigration/FoM; cost of membership; and faking control. N.B who is doing what here in terms of setting the agenda. The people overturned the wishes of the government. They set the red lines that you appear to want to ignore
5. Now that we are giving up our membership of the EU, the government is seeking to achieve the best access to the single market going forward. The options included four basic frameworks or a bespoke deal that combines features of some of them.
6. You are correct, some of the options are incompatible with the voters' wishes to end FoM and cease payments to the EU - now we can see the causal links here
7. On the basis of the decision to trigger A50 being irrevocable, the HoC passed an Act with a large majority including not one-party but large sections of both major political parties

so lets see:

THM - on the red lines, immigration was the thing for the vocal minority (as proved by many polls) so TM making that a red line is deliberately screwing over the UK.

It was the most important issue for those who won the referendum and voted to Leave. What would you expect now, that the government should set out on the process by simply ignoring this? I see where the one=party state ideas are germinating from....

FOM means access to a lot of things,

Not really - there are four elements

as you say it's all down to negotiation

No, both sides have started from the perspective that these are non-negotiables. Its all in the papers.

but TM has ruled stuff out from the start that means the UK is aiming for less than the Norway model from the start.

She didn't, the voters did. But you are correct, the Norway option is incompatible with the current red lines. True. Hence we are not pursuing it. We are pursuing a bespoke model that lies at 2.75 on the spectrum between 3 FTA and 2 the CU

The UK is now forced to accept a major change to it's status

N S Sherlock

that will be negotiated by a government with no mandate.

Other than the result of the referendum, that you seem keen to ignore

If you want to claim that the UK voted for something specific

The did, they voted to leave the EU. How much more specific can you get?

your either talking shit or deluded.

as above. The deluded bit is to pretend this didnt happen.

there was one vote with one question at no point was there anything more.

At the bLiar approach - people didnt understand the issues when they voted. Well I do have some sympathy with that view - see ^ for clear evidence. But so what? That is how it works. The Tories were elected on the basis of a commitment to hold a referendum and to respect the result.

If you think there was then maybe start with some pictures for the hard of understanding.

I doubt pictures are going to help. Remoaners will keep on moaning.

Sensible folk, will get on with life. Deal with what is actually in front of us, not what you wish was in front of us. Then we might make progress

[I]Sensible folk, will get on with life. Deal with what is actually in front of us, not what you wish was in front of us. Then we might make progress [/I]

But as pointed out previously, you can't make us.

We, the Remainers don't have to 'respect' the vote because we consider it is bad for the UK, and we certainly don't have to respect what May has decided is the way forward. Because again, we consider it is bad for the UK.

And, based on the various polls and data, it's us, the Remainers who are the ones who actually make the country run. So quite frankly the Brexiters can moan all they like. But now, later (and probably for ever) we will blame them for what they brought on the country.

So no, we aren't going to shut up nor are we going to accept what May is proposing - and we're going to do our best to remind her that it's election suicide, this might be the only thing that she'll pay attention it.

And Corbin, he just needs disposing of, PDQ.

There are remainers and leavers who make the country run, to suggest otherwise is nonsense

I appreciate the honesty in not respecting the democratic vote. That's clear.

In contrast, I don't agree with the result but I respect it. You can decide which approach is more appropriate in a [s]one party state[/s] democracy. It won't make any difference to the result.

"respect" is a strange choice of word, THM. I'll put my English teacher hat on for a post:

Respect: a high or special regard; esteem.

Respect can imply a perceived inequality, if you respect something you are inferior to it.

Respect comes from 'the Greek word tim?sate, meaning “honor or value.” It means “to place a great value or high price on something.” '

So no, I have no respect for Brexit, Brexiters or Brexit apologists.

Fair enough, but we are not talking about that are we. We are talking about respecting the result of a democratic vote.

Quite simple.

Accept or respect?

There are democratic decisions I respect, others I accept and others I despise. The democratic process is flawed and sometimes gives a mandate to do something that objectively should never be accepted or respected and should be fought against.

Go through history and you'll find some truly horrible "democratic" decisions.

Maybe ghe mods could close this one too?

Well good luck with your on-going protest at the result.

Meanwhile, those who do "actually" run things will get on with dealing with what is in front of us - this will include people on either side of the vote.

Thank you for the added value AA. No threatening behaviour here, so why close it?

THM I still believe that the majority of remainers make up the majority of the people that will end up bearing responsibility for making the Brexit work. I also think demand for well educated young people will increase, as ever the better educated/well off will prosper (the Tories will ensure this by loading the dice). The world that is coming has nothing in it for the working poor. Me and my kids no doubt will do well as we have assets, contacts, transferable skills and education, so I guess my procrastination is on behalf of others - maybe I should just shut up and exploit the opportunity for personal gain.

I think we ALL have a clear responsibility for making Brexshit work.

Good to see some sense coming out of Germany today. Sensible and promising.

I think we ALL have a clear responsibility for making Brexshit work.

Panic.

European car manufacturers have far more production capacity than they need and PSA will probably want to consolidate its factories if it acquires GM Europe.

Vauxhall's factories in Ellesmere Port and Luton are both very efficient, but they could face export tariffs when Britain leaves the single market, and probably the customs union, in two years - making those plants unviable.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39016604

It was the most important issue for those who won the referendum and voted to Leave

It was? How do they know? I mean, there was a lot of talk by the leave campaigners, but how do we know it was actually the majority view?

I only agree I have to help make it work as I have no choice (well I actually do I can sell up and **** off - which I have considered) I don't know if I can be comfortable with the divisions that are coming (yes I know closet socialism) I can remember life in a working class house in the 60s it was pretty shit and I think people forget how far we have come just in simple term a washing machine cost a months wages, hardly anyone from the working class went uni - slightly abstract but quality of life and opportunity in this country is pretty good, just not sure it's going to stay that way for poor folks.

Reading?

And they're getting windy there.

http://www.getreading.co.uk/news/reading-berkshire-news/nearly-20-per-cent-readings-12589682

😉 should have been lower case!!! 😀

Good link though!!

I don't believe I have any obligation, moral or otherwise, to try to make it work, any more than the kippers have an obligation to "respect" the 1973 referendum. When did that obligation end BTW?

I'll be ok personally but it will screw up the lives of a lot of friends and colleagues and I will take every opportunity to oppose and frustrate the brexit at any cost brigade. I may lose, but not without a (metaphorical) fight.

Enjoy

Using their economic power is the way people protest whether consciously or subconsciously.

Take the behaviour of our little family unit since Brexit. Some of it a deliberate raising of a digit, some of it fear, some of it throwing in the towel.

Madame has organised a school trip to the UK for the last 10 years. This year's trip has been cancelled.

I had a planned trip to the UK, I didn't go as the last time I took a French registered car to the UK in a period of tension (mad cow disease) I suffered road rage. The number of French people doing research on holidays in American and booking them has fallen significantly since Trump's election. The low pound should be boosting tourism, it did initially last Summer but by the Autumn it was down.

I transferred funds from The UK to France in the run up to the Brexit vote and more when the result came out. German and French institutions have more of my money to look after - I have more faith in the Euro than the pound despite your pessimism.

I do nothing to be enthusiastic when people ask advice about the UK. Pre June 23 I used to be quite a good ambassador for the UK, advising people on interesting things to do and places to visit.

I'm still using CRC but when the pound effect goes as it must when they buy new stock will I still buy from them? I have no idea of what the people at Rab and Buffalo think of Brexit but just the fact they are based in Sheffield makes me think that UKIP Brexiters will probably dealing with my order if I buy from them. I'm not sure I want to be seen with a British label, it's just not chic anymore.

With friends like this, who needs enemies?

With friends like this, who needs enemies?

You've hit the nail on the head. That's what Brexit has made many Europeans think of the British.

The anti-European propaganda in the British media made it to our media - it wasn't nice.

Report of our nationals being abused and insulted in Britain post Brexit made it into our media. It's clear we Europeans aren't liked or welcome.

Clear as mud?

Teamhurtmore you are presenting a combination of your interpretation of the situation and your opinion as fact. Its a pragmatic and sensible assesment but not clear 1+1=2 type fact.

Molgrips argument is not really incorrect, technically yes there is a difference between membership and access. Still though the scenario vote leave presented was tariff free trade with the eu and an end to freedom of movement in tandem, doesn't look like that will be achievable so therefore any mandate TM claims to have been given is not a definite.

Its perfectly possible to accept the mathematical result of the referendum but question the mandate that the govt claims it has. They're different things.

Its also possible to 'get on with things' and have a good remoan at the same time. Thats what i'm doing. Software industry recruiter by day, remoaner by night (well just when i've got a few minutes to sign a petition, stir the pot in comments sections and forums, support the lib dems etc. actually but hopefully you get my point)

Edukator - Reformed Troll... Reformed ?

I really dont see this Edukator my family is French I only watch French TV I work with French and Expats, The attitude is if its what the Brits want let em get on with it, The French are far from happy with Europe they Know its a mess and a large number would like their borders back and more protectionist government.

I see very few if any any news articles about Brexit, There is far more to worry about with the explosive situation in Paris and the general feeling of insecurity.

We had a recent show where the Notaires society of France turned up to reassure British people that they would still be welcome after Brexit and still able to buy property here.

Sorry bill, but mol's comments ARE factually incorrect with the latest one being confusing what options FoM affects and which ones it doesn't. This is where 1 + 1 does equally 2 not the 6 that mol seems to believe.

Ditto, the difference between membership of and access to is not technical it is FUNDAMENTAL. If that is not understood, futherdebate is impossible/pointless. You might as well debate how good a tomato is for calculating the diameter of a circle.

I admit, I do have the odd moan while getting on with things too. However, my main complaint for now is the BS being used to reject the result of a democratic vote. That's very poor,

However, my main complaint for now is the BS being used to reject the result of a democratic vote. That's very poor,

My main complaint is a vote based on lies and racism, and i am not talking about a few months, i mean 40 years of BS. Democracy needs truth to function without it you have nothing.

I think we ALL have a clear responsibility for making Brexshit work.

Why ? A decision of political expediency by Mr Cameroon to keep the Tory party in power (which was probably never in doubt) has landed us in this mess. So you want us to help Dirty digger get Sky on the cheap and create a land of milk an honey for Hedge funds managers and tax exiles. Quite frankly **** that for a game of soldiers I'm out. I've got a telephone interview for a position in Barcalona Tuesday and face to face in Berlin the week after.

Good luck.