[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

Odd how there are no comments from the Remainers here now we have the A50 Bill and Labour has announced a three line whip to ensure it's passed 8)

Did I say the entire EU would collapse or that I want it to ? I don't think so. It's fundamentally broken and require wholesale change but the core members are too tied to it politically to allow it to disintergrate. The euro will change, it cannot continue. @Edukator the issue with what you call eurobonds is that Germany quite rightly has no enthusiasm for being liable for the debts (and total loack of financial discipline) of Southern Europe.

Ok I'll bite. One countries lack of financial discipline as another's creative accounting.

A few Lab MPs have announced they'll defy the whip and few have announced they will tow the line.

The party is ruined and really should reform as two new parties, an opposition that acts like a box full of angry cats is not doing anyone any favours. Who knows how they will vote on the day.

Odd how there are no comments from the Remainers here now we have the A50 Bill and Labour has announced a three line whip to ensure it's passed

Eh? What were you expecting? And what are you inferring?

Odd how you can't get your head around that most remainers have accepted that 50 is going to get fired, it is a truly stupid thing to do but as you are a Trump fan and don't mind getting on your knees to guzzle from Donald then keep gloating over your support for this disaster.

That is when the hard work begins.

Nothing to bite on. We've covered the role of MPs over and over already. Nothing has changed. We still expect nothing useful from the majority of them. We've covered Labour's predicament, and the failure of their leader, in boring detail, from the very start of the campaign.

@Edukator the issue with what you call eurobonds is that Germany quite wrongly has no enthusiasm for being recycling its surpluses to the deficit countries of Southern Europe preferring to hide behind the mirage of German financial discipline.

FTFY

Hence the system is bust at its core. Not that this is a reason to stop being a member, outside of the € and Shengen etc. Still that horse has bolted now.

Jezza's done well today - only one resignation from his front bench. He must have feared more from the whipping. Why do visions of Diane Abbot suddenly spring to mind?

jambalaya - Member
Odd how there are no comments from the Remainers here now we have the A50 Bill and Labour has announced a three line whip to ensure it's passed

Mainly because I for one am waiting to see what actually happens.
We're told 50 labour rebels minimum plus some tories - we'll see.
We're told Corbyn won't oppose it but will propose amendments - again, we'll see.
And we know that the libdems and SNP will propose amendments - we'll see how many are deemed to be more than vexatious time wasting.
So really today is just the opening of the piece- whether it's long or short remains to be seen.
It could all be over by early next week and this country will have committed another act of self harm.

If there are too many amendments, the gov will simply use the guillotine. They are making the timetable a key performance indicator.

Indeed. Some might still get through though.

Now remind me. Can the parliament act be used on this bill? I seem to recall it can't but I'm not certain.

MPs are in general reflecting their constituencies. Seems perfectly reasonable to me 😉 The notion that somehow Brexit is a Government policy which should be contested by the opposition is wrong. It's a cross party issue.

Corbyn's 3-line whipping shows his true EU colours too, he has always been against. A true left wing agenda isn't possible whilst being a member of the EU.

Supposedly Blair was cozying up to Junker yesterday (after a Holocaust memorial event he was invited to speak at)

No amendments will get through imho. Far too many will vote for, we already have the "Labour Bill" and a commitment for a White Paper by May - sort of literally, after March and before June 🙂

jambalaya - Member
MPs are in general reflecting their constituencies. Seems perfectly reasonable to me

There are worse things I suppose. Unfortunately we have Julian "alternative referendum facts" Sturdy here. He is currently denying which way his constituency voted.

You may be right Jamba. But a very sad day for our country and our children is it goes through as is (not great if it goes through at all).
The Brexies will have ruined a once great country. They will never be forgiven.

+1 iigm

Most folk will have to get use to an ongoing drop in their living standards...

You know I think very differently, this will be the making of our country and a much brighter future for our country for my kids and grandkids.

My original gybe at Remainers is we have had months of court / high court nonsense and now we see the result - an uktra short bill and a 3-line Labour whip. All for nought really (and @Mike is quite right to have asked why this didn't happen months ago without a court case)

Quick reminder the pm's constituency voted remain. I assume she will vote against the bill.
Some days you would think the vote was a landslide majority....

What it really means is coming out in the excitement of a few here. Leave at any cost, no matter the cost leaving is all that matters.

"What it really means is coming out in the excitement of a few here. Leave at any cost, no matter the cost leaving is all that matters."

Ruining the UK isn't a vote winner so what it really means is that some better informed people have looked at the facts and reckon it's not going to be too problematic.

Ruining the UK isn't a vote winner so what it really means is that some better informed people have looked at the facts and reckon it's not going to be too problematic.

Jamba

You seem to see this as a party political thing, it isn't, it's proper stuff this and quite frankly I don't care what Corbin says either as he's as ideological crackers as Davis and Fox and co.

Real world impact will be huge on the average worker and eventually even the pensioners will be hit as we'll not have the cash and won't be able to borrow it (and the Tories have shown themselves to like to borrow, how bigs the debt mountain now?).

My original gybe at Remainers is we have had months of court / high court nonsense

Hang on. Nonsense? You don't care about due process of law? You want whatever PM happens to be in power to be able to do whatever they want without scrutiny?

Like hell you do. You are just heavily biased towards 'your' side so you just cheer them on regardless.

Very poor show.

I honestly wish I had the same blind faith as the brexiteers on here 🙂
Life must just be fab! Although presumably you need to be wary of buying any magic beans from random street vendors.

jambalaya - Member
No amendments will get through imho. Far too many will vote for, we already have the "Labour Bill" and a commitment for a White Paper by May - sort of literally

Sort of literally? Say what now?

Why wouldn't MPs force amendments, the white paper is more vague than vague Mc Vaguey face from from vaguesvilles academy of experts in vaguenes.

Given the gravity of the situation, MPs would be irresponsible and abhorrent not to force amendments.

My original gybe at Remainers is we have had months of court / high court nonsense... ...and @Mike is quite right to have asked why this didn't happen months ago without a court case)

Hang on. Nonsense? You don't care about due process of law?

Molgrips +1

Why wouldn't MPs force amendments, the white paper is more vague than vague Mc Vaguey face from from vaguesvilles academy of experts in vaguenes.

Is it? How can you be so sure when it hasnt been published yet.

Is it? How can you be so sure when it hasnt been published yet.

Dude... it's all over the internet...sigh.
EDIT.. sorry I'm confusing Bill with white paper..

The bill isn't worth the paper it's written on.

Which isn't saying much considering the volatility of currency right now.

There has been an extraordinary shift in this debate. Before the vote, it was the Brexshiteers making crap up. Now the whole thing has flipped on its head and it's remainers who have taken over the BS role.

What is the world coming to?

It's odd when May comes out looking like one of the few sane people left, despite her track record.

May could have accepted the original verdict.

Displaying a lack of judgement she wasted my taxes on going back to court.

You are right Jamba. This verdict changes nothing- we had the decision before Christmas. Just a Brexy government wasting money. Something we'll have to get used to.

Now the whole thing has flipped on its head and it's remainers who have taken over the BS role.

Really??
I'd be 99% confident that the white paper holds no more useful information than one of May's massive speaches.
What else is being made up THM?
You seem to have your own reasons for wanting to do this as fast as possible, I get the uncertainty part but also going in completely unprepared (as I pointed out there was a select comittee talking to business leaders this week - no reports from that yet) understaffed on negotiators is a big leap.

Many of us are also deeply uncomfortable giving an exceptional amount of power to what will effectivly be an unacountable group of people with no oversight from parliament.

teamhurtmore - Member
it's remainers who have taken over the BS role.

Yeah like asking for considered, thought out logical long term plans and strategies. Total BS. Who needs plans when we are going to have a red white and blue brexit?

Mike you are correct on the white paper.

Without Gina, most people wouldn't have had the slightest clue or even issue with the royal prerogative, judging by many recent comments they still do not.

Matty QED.

jambalaya - Member
You know I think very differently, this will be the making of our country and a much brighter future for our country for my kids and grandkids.

By the time your grandkids are our age I doubt there will be a UK. Brexit is a nail in the coffin of an ever more disunited set of kingdoms.

In other news, I've been asked to go to the States to assist with the UK's charm offensive on trade etc. (In a very junior role of course)

I'm just disgusted, there's noise in the press that ex pats might be denied health care without paying significant 'fees'.

My old man lives in Spain, and gets free care as he's paid uk tax all his life, and that could be taken away because the UK is too lazy to claim the cash back, so to speak.

Not only do I disagree with this abhorrent lethargy on the part of the NHS, it's now becoming very personal... leavers are quite simply becoming my enemies.

Sounds like congrats are in order IGM. Enjoy it!

(are you a "germaphobe" too?!?)

I'm just bemused.

But we have just had a 0.6% growth quarter (lots of shopping)
We made 1.7m cars last year (all cars built in the last quarter were produced at a loss due to the pounds decline)

"Things can only get better" come on let's all sing along.

Forgot to mention our £557m for the Northern Powerhouse - job done no need to worry about Nissan f****g off.

I am not sure that any of the political **** wits running the exit strategy have ever actually been involved in running an actual business in the real world.

Apparently that's not needed, reading from a dusty arcane text book at an expensive university apparently is a qualifier for running a modern country.

There has been an extraordinary shift in this debate. Before the vote, it was the Brexshiteers making crap up. Now the whole thing has flipped on its head and it's remainers who have taken over the BS role.

Quite. For a long time you appeared very much a lead remainer (which given your usual predilection to right wing guff was in itself extraordinary). You now seem to be in a race with Jamby for "who can shout loudest for Maybe to careen us off a cliff as quickly as possible". Very extraordinary indeed.

Thank you for such a valuable post zokes - a step up

Nothing extraordinary at all. It's equally clear where our best interests lay and what we have to do now that people have made an alternative choice. The answer is a little thing called perspective.

My pespective is that May has created a single point of failure in as much we need an EU trade deal that is not punitive. As discussed earlier in this thread trade deals with the US/Oz/NZ etc are not necessarily beneficial for UK business.

Indeed both sides need to create a win:win solution to a lose:lose problem.

They have their work cut out but that is what they are paid for

both sides need to create a win:win solution to a lose:lose problem

Anyway I think you were lecturing remainers on extraordinary shifts of their position and BS ...oh the irony.

[i]I am not sure that any of the political **** wits running the exit strategy have ever actually been involved in running an actual business in the real world. [/I]

Probably why Hammond always has a face-palmed look 🙂

Good job no one talks about nationalisation or controlling the commanding heights anymore..,,

Good job no one talks about nationalisation or controlling the commanding heights anymore..,,

Even I, as one of the bearded geography teacher's stronger advocates on here, think he's completely taken leave of his senses. At the very least it should have been a free vote, if he didn't, y'know, actually want to oppose the Trump fancier

In other news, I've been asked to go to the States to assist with the UK's charm offensive on trade etc

As you seem to be involved to some extent, I assume you are a civil servant - so what's the prevailing mood there? Interested.

They have their work cut out but that is what they are paid for

Yes, but unfortuantely their *ability* to do these things well is not the basis on which they are selected to do that job. Which is where we have a problem.

No, thm, many influential EU voices have made it clear that they need the UK to lose, irrespective of whether they also lose. A win-win (assuming it was even possible) would destroy the EU. So I think we'd better get used to the fact that whatever the final outcome is it's going to be a lose-lose.

Incidentally, Abbott on the radio this morning did imply that the labour three line whip position could be changed if they don't get their amendments through...

THM is being entirely consistent.
Consistent in supporting whoever is our current Conservative PM.

😆

THM, re win:win loose:loose.

A very simple question, is the EU an economic or a political project.

The answer defines the near future, it defines how both sides will approach negotiations.

Remember that however badly it goes it will be "their" fault.

Another simple question, are we leaving the EU for economic or political reasons.

The answer defines how "our side" will approach negotiations.

Or sentimental reasons?

I think it's how the other side view why they're is probably more important, and what they've to lose/win.

Cap - there are two processes going on. The public one and the real one. The rhetoric is simply to feed the ever hungry press (the public one) Meanwhile the real work is conducted well away from the public gaze. It was ever thus.

Kelvin. It would appear that you desire to (incorrectly) pigeon hole others is getting in the way of your understanding. There is an easy solution

Why is Abbot changing her view/labour policy?!? No answer needed.

Both. For us more economic. For the EU more of both obviously given that the folly of the Euro requires fiscal and political union. We were not part of that stupidity hence the assymetry in our positions.

Meanwhile the real work is conducted well away from the public gaze.

But do you trust this lot to do it competently?

Two labour whips 😯 and now 2 Labour MPs, both resigned are going to vote against Article 50.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jo-stevens-is-first-shadow-cabinet-member-to-quit-over-jeremy-corbyns-order-to-vote-for-brexit-a7549656.html

Could be an interesting vote...

Party Seats
Conservative 329
Labour 229
Scottish National Party 54
Liberal Democrat 9
Democratic Unionist Party 8
Independent 4
Sinn Fein 4
Plaid Cymru 3
Social Democratic & Labour Party 3
Ulster Unionist Party 2
Green Party 1
Speaker 1
UK Independence Party 1
Vacant 2

Even I, as one of the bearded geography teacher's stronger advocates on here, think he's completely taken leave of his senses. At the very least it should have been a free vote, if he didn't, y'know, actually want to oppose the Trump fancier

Pretty much sums up my feelings on the matter. He's utterly ****ed it as far as I'm concerned.

Again the conversation is far to high up the food chain, the reality is that SME business can not survive more than a few months if the exit strategy has a "bathtub" curve. Remember most agricultural enterprise and lots of manufacturing are SME and many other SME businesses feed off them . The knock on effect of this will be substantial.

But do you trust this lot to do it competently?

No idea. No one has done this before.

1. The Three Brexshiteers - no
2. May - reserving judgement, but is surprising on the upside so far (read that how you will Kelvin!)
3. Barnier - see 2
4. Merkel - better than 2 and 3, she is Frau Compromise after all
5. Verhofstadt - no
6. The UK civil servants, advisors, negotiators - probably, but have no basis on which to judge

Enjoying in a sick kind of way reading Aaron Banks' book. 20% done so far.

I do think that May is actually showing herself to be a good politician, but that's not something I personally admire in anyone.

Although as was once said to me about Maxwell (by someone who worked for him). He was a bastard, but at least he was OUR bastard.

way to early to say whether she is or she is not

Has been helped massively by the absence of an opposition party of any note

Molgrips - I am not a civil servant though I bump into quite a few. Those who have expressed a view to me are few and far between.
I am not involved in Brexit, and only passingly involved in the recovery operation.

[quote=teamhurtmore ]4. Merkel - better than 2 and 3, she is Frau Compromise after all

About the only sane politician out of the lot of them, though I hold out hope that some of the civil servants have a clue what they're doing and retain sufficient power to prevent the children making a complete mess of it.

And another unintended consequence. We are members of Euratom because of our membership of the EU. Leave the EU and we leave this. Without being in euratom all work on new nuclear power stations will have to stop. so either we will have to have new agreements with euratom, some transitional arrangements in place or Hinkley is further delayed

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-euratom-idUSKBN15B15V

I always thought May a good politician but she is proving me wrong continually. Her handling of europe is so poor its laughable. Its almost as if she wants us to fail in leaving so we end up staying. She has got so many things so wrong its no longer funny

zokes - Still not a customer
There has been an extraordinary shift in this debate. Before the vote, it was the Brexshiteers making crap up. Now the whole thing has flipped on its head and it's remainers who have taken over the BS role.
Quite. For a long time you appeared very much a lead remainer (which given your usual predilection to right wing guff was in itself extraordinary). You now seem to be in a race with Jamby for "who can shout loudest for Maybe to careen us off a cliff as quickly as possible". Very extraordinary indeed.

[quote=tjagain ]I always thought May a good politician

Where on earth did you get that idea? Though for some definitions of "good" the evidence suggests she's an excellent one - or at least good enough to be in the right place to make the most of an opportunity - I can't remember her ever being particularly competent and I'm not sure her track record at achieving things is that brilliant. I'm not just commenting with the benefit of hindsight, have never rated her.

The best of a shite situation is to U turn. Second referendum. Anything to stop it. There is no "making the best" of leaving the EU. Its a complete disaster on all accounts with no possible upside

I thought she had political sense. Ie whilst doing things I disagreed with at least they had some coherent logic behind them and she took consistent positions and stuck to them. I have been proved wrong however.

tjagain - Member
The best of a shite situation is to U turn. Second referendum. Anything to stop it. There is no "making the best" of leaving the EU. Its a complete disaster on all accounts with no possible upside

Admittedly there is some consistent logic. She does whatever she thinks is best for TM, which clearly involves shifting position when necessary.

Perhaps - but that is because they are spineless idiots by and large. Only 100 mps support out. the best hope now is an amendment for a second referendum is put in and passed. Or of course Scotland goes independent then I'm allright jack.

Its almost as if she wants us to fail in leaving so we end up staying

No comment on this from the anti EU lot or the pro nukes lot?

Brexit will delay new British nuclear power stations, warn experts

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/27/uk-exit-eu-atomic-treaty-brexit-euratom-hinkley-point-c

As an electric type (for those of you with kids into Pokemon) consider the interconnectors too.
A fair number of people wondering about how they will operate going forward and what that will do to electricity prices. Maybe nothing, maybe something.

We made 1.7m cars last year (all cars built in the last quarter were produced at a loss due to the pounds decline)

oldman can you help me out with this ? Import raw materials add value via local labour and facilities. BTW large manufactruers hedge (ie fix and/or limit downside) of currency rates. Bit like airlines do with the oil price/fuel cost. Any raw materials imported at a high cost due to fx are equally matched by that part leaving for export with the rest of the costs (labour etc) lower. Now cars made here and sold locally are less profitable and cars made abroad and exported here are much less profitable. I very much doubt manufacturers are selling cars produced in Q4 at a loss, happy to see your justification. Genuine question.

In other news Merkel has supposedly made a number of approaches to sugget she visits Washington. Trump's team have not even replied, thus likely first meeting at G7 in May or G20 in July which Germany are hosting. Far from calming his rhetoric on Germany post his victory he reiterated his view on the folly of Germany accepting 1m people about whom they knew very little. The pressure is mounting.

No comment on this from the anti EU lot or the pro nukes lot?

I think that's a pretty small subset. Personally I don't care. Seems to me another "could" or "may" type scenario. Maybe, maybe not.