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You missed the NFL. We won't be in that either. Or the NBA.
Oh, and we can probably add the EHIC to that list. Good luck if you can still afford to go on holiday and manage to hurt yourself.
Interesting. Between the EU and EFTA countries or between the EU and EFTA?
Well it appears a) the individuals signed it and b) EU membership doesn't automatically get you in - well not immediately.
The individual countries definitely sign it, but as a member of one grouping of the other, The whole mechanism of the treaty seems to have operational provisions between those groupings. As a result, if you are a signatory but no longer a member of your intial grouping you seem to be left in limbo so you would appear not to be able to access its provisions. There is provision for countries to move from EEA to EU, but not vice versa.
Have you lost your mind, we're talking about a future where there could be no one (group) capable of standing up to the US. They'd be able to pick us off one by one, and the UK would end up as nothing other than a patsy nation to it.
I made the point earlier that a economically and politically strong Europe is needed for exactly this reason (with the UK as part of it).
Not sure if this has been mentioned. One of the brexitters "alternative facts" on the impact of migration on wages has been exposed as (willful?) misrepresentation of the findings.
Maybe the purpose of brexit is to curtail all those consumer and employee rights that the EU has been working on.
In which case either of Cougar's outcomes are a success.
The whole mechanism of the treaty seems to have operational provisions between those groupings.
Not all the EFTA counties are signed up to the EEA, so I'm not sure that it is that simple.
And not all EEA members are signed up to all the single market structures, for all sectors.
There is room for bespoke deals. We won't get one with May's red lines though.
There is provision for countries to move from EEA to EU, but not vice versa.
Correct. It has never happened. We're in new territory. So we'd need all countries involved to agree.
This won't happen with May's red lines.
Kelvin I have no need to argue about the EEA, I prefer to simply check the facts. You are incorrect however much you protest
Feel free to refrain from arguing in order to understand EFTA, the EEA, how to become a Member (not straightforward) and whether this means that you are a member of the SM in reality, in folklore or not at all. (Clue: I have given you the answer already)
I posted a very good link explaining this about 20 or so pages back
Jambas I think your new friend forgot how salmons was promising to wing it/ lie to the Scottish people before about LoLR etc. !!!!
As long you agree the referendum did not state our future relationship in, or with, the Single Market.
Our limits there are being set by May's own personal red lines, not the public vote.
Brexit Silver Linings: No more Rowan Sorrell built trails...
TJ agreed an iS should setup those things it's just AS said all along he could get by without them, somehow.
Edukator the euro is broken, the contagion from Greece onto Italy etc is not fixable imho. The numbers are just too big. To compare Greece would be the largest sovereign default ever much bigger than Aregntina, quite an achievement fot a country of 11m people. Europe has used protectionism and expansion to try and preserve it's dated Labour laws and to prop up a lifestyle the economies don't justify (UK guilty of this too btw). France is going to have a hell of a shock under Fillon (assuming he wins) and he tries to modernise the country / economy. Strikes etc are going to go to another level with his assault on the huge bloated French state machine.
Did we do this?
Kelvin
Nothing for me to accept. You still seem to. E missing the idea of a negotiation. Plus what the EU is.
Mefty and I have tried to help but enough I am going to watch la la land now
You know that not being in the EU, but being in the Single Market, is a thing. Do you not?
See above. Made it 100% clear
You know that not being in the EU, but being in the Single Market, is a thing. Do you not?
You might want to let May know, she seems to have missed that.
Don't fall out boys. Ultimately our opinions don't matter. The pressure we can put on our MPs does.
Go tell them what you want. Be clear that you want The 4 freedoms. Make them believe they will be looking for a new job in 3 years if they don't act in the interests of their constituents and kill off the extreme Brexit proposed by folk who treat being anti-EU as their religion.
And in the meantime stand up to those religious fanatics of Brexit.
You might want to let May know, she seems to have missed that.
She hasn't missed it, it's just not compatible with her personal red lines on FoM and courts.
Europe has used protectionism and expansion to try and preserve it's dated Labour laws
Bloody European labour laws, giving us paid leave, a right to work only a reasonable number of hours and return home from work safely. I so wish I could work 120 hours a week for two quid, and if I lost my arm in an accident that I'd have to pay my employer compensation.
jambalaya - MemberEdukator the euro is broken, the contagion from Greece onto Italy etc is not fixable
I think this may turn out to be cobblers.
The world has known about the awful state of Greek finances for years now. Yet the Euro hasn't imploded. We were [b]absolutely promised[/b] by the likes of the Telegraph this would happen 2 years ago now, and it still hasn't materialized).
And people are still lending money to the Greek government at [url= https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/money/long/html/index.en.html ]rates[/url] that the likes of Dennis Healey or Nigel Lawson would have given their right arm to get.
So no, I still don't buy this. It may all just be fine in the end, despite the best efforts of certain interested parties to convince us otherwise.
Jamba - have you notice Salmond is not leading the SNP anymore and do you not think they have learned the lessons?
On the Euro Jamba - how many years ago was it you first started saying the euro is dead, Greece would default and that Germany would want out? Its still not happening
The world has known about the awful state of Greek finances for years now. Yet the Euro hasn't imploded. We were absolutely promised by the likes of the Telegraph this would happen 2 years ago now, and it still hasn't materialized).
I think Greece should look at bankruptcy and wipe out its debt. It's the interest it's paying that is prolonging their crisis. Wipe the debt and the Euro and EU can move forward, but it's probably bankers that are maintaining the pressure to break the Euro and win some sort of perverted victory. I wonder whether banks would be able to charge more for currency transactions than the current position with the Euro.
Whadayathink Jamba?
The question is how many times do you have to do that because their debts will start accumulating again after a few years since they are not producing much.captainsasquatch - Member
I think Greece should look at bankruptcy and wipe out its debt.
France is going to have a hell of a shock under Fillon
I'm watching Valls/Hamon on TF1 at the moment. It's taken Fillon to make me realise I'll be voting left for the first time in my life (I've voted centre and even green in the Europeans but never left). On the basis of tonight Hamon gets my vote and Madame will probably vote Macron.
Let us not forget how this whole sorry mess began, Cameron was scared of losing a few votes to UKIP, so in his nievity promised an advisory referendum.
Safe bet at the time I'm sure, tehe population would never vote to leave? Would it?
hindsight is a wonderful thing, but when you're PM, ..and now what have we got... May, Davies and Johnson..and what can only be described as a cluster ****.
The level of incompetence and 'winging it' has reached stratospheric levels.
Let me think Left side debate (for a party which will be eliminated in the first round in an election I can't vote in and a lot of which I won't follow 😳 ) or ... L'amour c'est muiex a deux and Top Chef - a bit more of my level 🙂
I am pretty negative on eurozone, others may have a more positive view but they cannt keep kicking the issue into the long grass and interest rates are ultra low and will not stay that way. The debt mountain quickly crushes you as rates rise.
Captain it would be very painful for Greece to default and return to the Drachma but it would give them a way forward. They are hoping to outlast the EU in this game of chicken and get a debt deal where (say) 60% of their debt is written off and they get to stay in the euro. The IMF was trying to push the eurozone into it as was Obama (hence his last minute trip there).
@maty Cameron gave the Scots a Referendum, did the SNP deride him for that ? Even those of us in the rest of the UK respected that is was the Scots right to make their own choice (once in a lifetime 😉 ). Cameron is a democrat, yes of course he thought he'd win, he thought by making it advisory he might wiggle out but in the end he did the right thing and resign.
Captain it would be very painful for Greece to default and return to the Drachma but it would give them a way forward. They are hoping to outlast the EU in this game of chicken and get a debt deal where (say) 60% of their debt is written off and they get to stay in the euro. The IMF was trying to push the eurozone into it as was Obama (hence his last minute trip there).
So you agree that it's the banks that are preventing Greece from moving forward and that they are trying to discredit the Euro. That if Greece didn't have to pay crippling interest payment that they would be in a far stringer position now and the Euro, and ultimately the EU would be in a much stronger place.
Nasty bankers, merchant bankers!
The debt has been "nationalised", EU members and ECB are predominant lenders, private sector lending is very small now.
You might want to let May know, she seems to have missed that.
She has missed nothing. Unlike many, she is fully aware of the FUNDAMENTAL distinction between "access to" and "membership of" the single market. Many have access to via the four basic frameworks. Only 28 currently have membership of. This will be 27 now that we have voted to give up our membership.
Again unlike many, she is now focused on how to ensure access. She wants a bespoke deal but under terms that cannot be delivered. Hence the negotiations - have I mentioned that already. In the end, we will get a compromise that limits the damage of this lose:lose situation. In the meantime, those who don't understand what is happening here will continue to tie themselves in knots.
Jambas you are wrong to focus on Greece which is noise now. The key issue is the fundamental flaws at the core of the EZ - the € itself and the fact that the Germans deny their responsibility to recycle the surpluses that this flawed construct delivers in its favour. Your are wasting your breath debating the folly of the € here, since the solidarity towards the EZ workers who have seen 30-40% wage deflation and/or mass unemployment as a direct result of the € is not even skin deep. It is ignored or if we are being polite misunderstood.
[quote="jambalaya"] - Member
@maty Cameron [i]gave[/i] the Scots a Referendum
could you maybe just patronise us a bit more? [i]Gave[/i] us indeed. He agreed to because he had no option same as May will have no option when we want to call another one
Its not the yield on Greek debt that is the issue - the whole debt dynamics cannot work. Its basic maths.
But in itself, Greece is a sideshow except for the poor Greeks themselves who seem to have been abandoned by UK lefties !
cam got a new job today
something about hoping the public have short memories
The level of incompetence and 'winging it' has reached stratospheric levels.
On the contrary, despite the three Brexshiteers involvement the progress so far has been remarkable. Michel Barnier and Merkel are broadly on-side. May is getting on with things and the timetable is going to be met. How often do politicians pull such a difficult task off? Hardly ever. Ok they screwed up in the royal prerogative but that is passed now.
From a barely competent Home Sec, old Theresa is surprising on the upside so far - especially since she is doing something that she doesn't wholeheartedly believe in.
Jamba - have you notice Salmond is not leading the SNP anymore and do you not think they have learned the lessons?
Indeed, even the diehards know they cant win a referendum. Just left to resort to mischief making. Still a good smokescreen for the domestic failures. Rhetoric versus reality.
THM…
1) Being "a part of" or "in" the Single Market (all three forms of it: goods, services and food) is something (I think) we should be aiming for, but is now dead in the water because of May's red lines.
2) "Membership" of the Single Market is a red herring. I (hope) I haven't slipped into saying that we're likely to get that outside the EU. It is not the same as being 'in" it.
3) "Access to" used to mean something akin to 1, but has been delibrately rescoped to mean "trade with in any form" by the eurosceptics for their own ends, they have been saying that USA has "access to" the Single Market since the referendum, to set out sights low.
Note: I want more than "the Norway model", because I don't want our farmers hung out to dry, no matter what individual farmers might have voted for. We can't even achieve this though, with May's personal red lines blocking any such deal.
I repeat…
You know that not being in the EU, but being in the Single Market, is a thing. Do you not?
Captain as Medty says the banks are not involved. The EU forc d them to take a big loss and took on the debt themselves. IMO they did this to stop the banks forcing Greece into bankruptcy. The private sector is not interested in lending to Greece, only a politician motivated by survival and using taxpayers money would be daft enough.
TJ Cameron is a democrat so he gave the Scots a Referendum. May will do no such thing, zero chance. Not least as there is absolutely no need. The matter was finally settled in 2014.
Greece will be the catalyst imo tmh.
Kelvin - are you deliberately missing the fact that the whole debate currently is on what form of access to the single market we will end up with?
May's red lines merely rule out one of the existing options (EEA) and makes another more challenging (CU). She is currently pitching her opening gambit between the CU and FTA. We shall see where it ends.
Its is factually incorrect to suggest that her red lines make access dead in the water.
You are correct that her red lines (currently) make the Norway option difficult/impossible.
Please try to read up on this - leave going round in circles to HM Opposition.
edit for edit - you can keep on repeating as much as you like. Until you understand the difference between access to and membership of, you will get nowhere. Its not difficult.
Italy perhaps. Greece unlikely. Greek creditors will ultimately take a hit but we know who they are.
May's red lines rule out being in the Single Market.
Look what the EFTA countries in the EEA have to do in terms of courts and FoM.
Her red lines are ECJ and FoM.
Although not actually ECJ, a similar court exists for countries in the Single Market that are not in the EU.
She has anything like ruled this out.
How can you be in the Single Market without a court of arbitration for disputes?
FoM has been done to death… she has been clear what her position is, and it rules out being in the Single Market.
Until you understand the difference between [b]being in [/b] and membership of, you will get nowhere.
There are countries[b] in [/b]the Single Market, that are [b]part of [/b]the Single Market, that are not members.
"Access to" has become a meaningless phrase, that applies to everyone from South Korea to South Africa, it has long since stopped meaning anything like "being in" or "trading within" or any kind of "in" at all.
May's red lines rule out being in the Single Market.
Repeat 100 times...
...Its still not true. There's a shock!
"Access to" has become a meaningless phrase,
As above
May's red lines rule out being in the Single Market.
Repeat 100 times......Its still not true. There's a shock!
She has said so herself.
May's red lines merely limit our options for access to the single market
[b]From the outset, it is important that the Government, Parliament and the public are clear about the distinction between ‘access to’ and ‘membership of’ the Single Market. [/b]Many countries have ‘access to’ the EU’s Single Market, either through agreed tariffs at the WTO or via a FTA. [b]However, the only countries which have full membership of the Single Market[/b]—which entails the liberalised movement of goods, services, people and capital (the ‘Four Freedoms’), secured through common rules interpreted by the European Court of Justice (CJEU)— [b]are EU Member States.[/b]
28 of them - soon to be 27
Thank yo for patronising us so nicely again Jamba.
Cameron did not "give" us anything. He agreed to the referendum as May will have to as well - why because if she does not agree then we hold one without her agreement and her refusing will immediately put several points on the yes vote making a yes vote almost certain. It will be harder to hold one without Westminster agreement but not impossible and the rest of the world would accept the result in line with previous cases and international law.
Your attitude to scotland is so patronising its hard to believe that you really think like that.
Cameron understood this. May is not stupid.
However, the only countries which have [b]full membership [/b]of the Single Market
…are EU states, yes, yes, but there are countries [b]in the [/b]Single Market that do not fit that description.
They are part of the Single Market and are not full members. A weaker position to be in, but in the SM none the less.
Its not as patronising as the attitude of the EU or the Supreme Court!
Or as patronising as telling the Scottish people that their "best interests" are served by giving up monetary, fiscal and political sovereignty to [s]Frankfurt, Berlin[/s] Brussels.... so that the narcissists can claim a false victory. That is the biggest folly of all! To suggest it, implies that the people of Scotland are economically and politically illiterate. which they have already shown the be untrue.
Scots are not stupid
Opinion poll out tonight
Polling Matters / @OpiniumResearch
Brexit decision: Right or wrong?
Definitely right 40%
Probably right 13%
Probably wrong 16%
Definitely wrong 23%
DK 9%
The debt mountain quickly crushes you as rates rise.
That's Britain in two years time. Inflation is rising, rates will follow.
[url= http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/inflation-cpi ]UK inflation.[/url]
That's Britain in two years time. Inflation is rising, rates will follow.
Don't worry, apparently that'll just be a bump in the road on our way to a new dawn of the Great British Empire 😆
Definitely right 40%
Yup, people have bought into the idea that nothing "project fear" predicted will happen to them (rather than it being delayed because May wisely bought us 6 months) and so debt fuelled consumer spending is very strong. Confidence is high.
The debt mountain quickly crushes you as rates rise.
Ah, yes…
And with May and Trump together, what could go wrong?
Maybe a wall between Ireland and the UK?
Look on the bright side, risinginflation will help to reduce our own debt mountain or at least offset our latest fix
Confidence may be misplaced. We have just had a massive loosing of policy via a 20% devaluation and a cut in rates (same effect) combined with futther stealing off savers in order to give the debt junkies their final hit. Going cold turkey after this will not be pleasant nor good for confidence!
Can I agree with Jamba on something?
Much as I'd love the euro to succeed (in principle taking the money changers out of the loop is great) it probably won't.
I think it only works with political union and that isn't going to happen. Just as cars need differentials to turn corners without the wheels falling off, countries need exchange rates to allow them to pursue slightly different courses. The differential or exchange rate dissipates the stresses in the system.
That said I think that is known and understood and post Brexit the EU will sooner or later revise the euro or even replace it.
Where I differ with Jamba is that I think the EU will survive, adapt, evolve and probably grow. It always has so far.
Igm, its more than just "I think". It has to fail by design, the EZ does not qualify as an optimal currency area and its construct is missing a core element as you say - fiscal and political union. It's is only a matter of when not if. History is merely repeating itself. In the meantime we have extensive collateral damage - solidarity comrades!
Oh and the comedy act of wee nippy pretending that being replacement 28a will be in the interests of those she is meant to be representing. Dark humour indeed. T2a.
The dollar is used in all 50 US states and as a hard currency in countries all over the world.
[url= http://www.tax-rates.org/taxtables/sales-tax-by-state ]Sales tax varies from zero to 7% depending on state[/url]
[url= http://money.cnn.com/pf/features/lists/total_taxes/ ]State taxes state by state.[/url]
I'm in favour of eurobonds and a limit to the fiscal dumping carried out by Luxembourg, Ireland, NL and the UK. If the US can do it, so can Europe.
Compare the Euro to the basket of currencies it replaced, when looking at its success and resilience.
Changes required, for sure, but I wouldn't bet against it surviving.
Or as patronising as telling the Scottish people that their "best interests" are served by giving up monetary, fiscal and political sovereignty to Frankfurt, Berlin Brussels
Except no one actually ever did that.
Where I differ with Jamba is that I think the EU will survive, adapt, evolve and probably grow. I
Indeed, the hard on that the bitterest little englanders have for the EU collapsing is quite sad
Of course not Gordi. If they told the truth they would be laughed out of the room straight away. Hence the deceit.
Did you miss the Indy referendum - the paradigm shift in post truth politics?
Everyone with a conscience should be wishing an end for the euro. It has wrought havoc in wages and employment levels across Europe. Far more damaging than the scapegoat that is immigration. Only economic and social vandals would want it to survive.
How so, THM? It's replaced an exchange rate mechanism and before that Europe was plagued with the uncertainties of currency instability and a series of competitive devaluations from some countries.
The Euro has allowed employers to plan ahead without those currency risks. Look at the fortunes of Jaguar over six decades. Each time the pound had gone down US sales have boomed and each time the pound has gone up it's been lay-offs and near financial disaster. In the end the answer has been American ownership and sourcing a lot of components from more stable currency zones. Stable currency rates favour long term investment and prosperity. Would you really rather have the kind of volatility seen in Latin America?
teamhurtmore - Member
Of course not Gordi. If they told the truth they would be laughed out of the room straight away. Hence the deceit.Did you miss the Indy referendum - the paradigm shift in post truth politics?
Everyone with a conscience should be wishing an end for the euro. It...
Ummm, wtf? Let's say for a second you are correct for arguments sake.
It would be easily demonstrable by the leave campaign, so why all the lies and manipulation of the 52%? If the leavers could put forward a compelling argument I'd be all ears but that hasn't been and still isn't the case.
Where's the honesty and transparency if it's that simple?
THM still going on about the scottish referendum? A subject where his hatred of scotland and its people shine thru? Where he keeps banging on about lies without being able to see the beam in his own eye? and is this not the euro referendum thread?
Aren't Jaguar Indian owned Edukator? Tata? Who own steel works in the UK as well as Tetley tea and JLR?
1. FX rates should be free to adjust to economic factors
2. Badly designed exchange rate mechanisms always fail - it is only a matter of time that differentiates them
3. In the meantime, they create economic and social havoc
Imagine a central heating systems that has increased pressure but no release valve. What happens.
Tackle the cures of FX volatility, don't hide them away.
Oh a negative and factually incorrect contribution from TJ. Groundhog day.
Only those who truly hate Scotland would wish what the desperate SNP are proposing. Scotphiles in contact understand what is in their best interests.
You're probably right, igm, I haven't followed recently. What I'm certain of is that currency fluctuations were a major headache for Jaguar which made them a take-over target each time sales dipped. They were taken over and have been someone else' pawn since - along with the workers.
THM you're as quick to accuse others of deceit as you are to resort to deceit
I agree maty, the leavers did not put forward a coherent or honest case. But they won. in return we got to see what kind of country we really live in rather than the one we hoped we lived in. It's not a pleasant sight is it?
You are correct Edukator - I have published research on Jaguar. For many years back in the 80s they were a one product/one market company that was highly exposed to the £/$ exchange rate. There were lots of other problems that Egan had to deal with at the time of the big restructuring of the time.
But yes, if you are reliant on one market you will be naturally exposed to FX fluctuations which is not a good thing. That's is why givernments should tackle to causes not the symptoms. Companies can minimise the risk via hedging too or by diversifying.
Compare the the "[i]economic and social havoc[/i]" in the Eurozone countries before and after the establishment of the Euro (and the FX fixing mechanisms that prepared for it). The Euro has problems, and as you point out all FX fixing creates problems, but painting the alternative as having fewer, or less serious, problems is an assertion many would question.
Indeed kelvin, the root problem (among many) was uncompetitive labour markets. But that requires joined up thinking to address. Devaluation is not a panacea either as it has other consequences - that's the beauty of economics there is no such thing as a free lunch whatever politicians pretend. But I disagree, since a fixed exchange rate does lead to worse scenarios and amplifies economic cycles. That is a proven.
But and its a very big BUT, if you chose to fix your exchange rate then there can only be two outcomes to this situation - wage deflation and/or unemployment. We have witnessed both on a catastrophic scale. Why would you wish that on anyone?
EUR:USD volatility has been just as high as GBP:USD vol so no help to Jaguar there. The British economy has learnt alot from foreign ownership, benefits outweigh downsides.
Indeed, Tata own Jaguar now. The Tetley acquisition was the first foreign acquisition by an Indian company.
EUR:USD volatility has been just as high as GBP:USD vol so no help to Jaguar there. The Britsh econmomy has learnt alot from foreign ownership, benefits outweigh downsides.
+1 esp the second bit.
Xenophobia is bad for Britain
uncompetitive labour markets
I'm really happy that French labour market can't compete with the latest low-cost impoverished developing-world country. Or even with social-dumping Britain. This is one positive I see in Brexit with my French hat on. It's also something I agree with Trump on, a nation or trading zone that doesn't protect its national/trading zone workers' jobs/working conditions with tarifs and trade restrictions will soon become a production desert or as dreadful a place to work as the developing nation.
As for maintaining jobs through technological lead and excellence, we've behind! The Chinese can do most everything we do better. In 1978 they built a whole new technological city in the desert that now has a population of 12 million and French hi-tech entrepreneurs are flocking there rather than Silicon Valley because Silicon valley is slower, more expensive and lagging behind technologically.
Ok, but how could NOT have financial implications?
Comment at 1235
[I]Financial implications of the Bill
22 The Bill is not expected to have any financial implications.[/I]
Why is fast-tracking necessary?11 The judgment of 24 January 2017 required the Government to complete an additional (and unexpected) step before the formal process of leaving the European Union can commence. Completing this step through the normal Bill timetable would cause considerable delay to commencing the formal exit process, making it impossible to do so before the end of March 2017. This would further generate uncertainty as to the timetable for our exit from the European Union.
Or because we really don't want any of those awkward questions. Which is why we tried to get round having to do this and now that we wasted all that time we are going to miss our own timeline (which is all of the plan really) unless we just skip past the formalities....
All in given the complete debacle so far and the lack of any comprehensive (or even vague) strategy why would you not just sign a blank cheque to this lot...
Good. Nice tight bill. Almost got it onto two lines.
They are getting the hang of this now,