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Oh, I though that were secondary issues that led on from the primary one - what form of access do we want?
They have had me fooled then.
im just quoting the guy that drafted A50...
“Article 50 is not about trade, it is about divorce. It’s about paying the bills, dividing the property. The money negotiation is going to be a very nasty negotiation,” [Kerr] said at a lecture in Glasgow. He predicted that there would be “no serious negotiations before the autumn”, adding that he expected “this calendar year will be mainly spent in a furious battle about money”.Lord Kerr, who has served as UK ambassador to both the EU and the US, said that if no agreement was reached on the terms of Brexit, and no extension to the talks was agreed, the UK would have to leave anyway.
He said the chances of this could be “as much as 25 per cent or maybe more”, adding: “I think there may actually be a one in three chance of no deal.”
Berlin to send back thousands of British Hipsters 🙂
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@kimbers the guy that drafted A50 - impartial not ! You need to understand that manynof us think a quick clean break is best. As TMH says it's the biggest shock but in many many scenarios that's the best way. The EU is desperate to "kick the can down the road" - they need EU budget black holes and €10bn net in tariffs on their goods like a hole in the head. Prior poster talked about BMW buyers being price insenstive (not true imo) but the issue is Volkswagen, Skoda, Renault etc. German trade is already down 5% due to £/€ alone add same move again in tariffs and that's a very big problem for an country facing €20-40bn in migrant costs per anum, demands for increase in military spending of similar amount (Trump/NATO) plus having acknowledge that the €100bn gifted to Greece isn't coming back
[I]First of all the 2 years of A50 negotiations arent about trade,[/I]
It will include 'trade' but the main focus will be political as that'll be the profession of the people doing the negotiations (on BOTH sides).
Any deal has to be acceptable 'politically', otherwise either/both side will be brought to task (by the media and their political opponents).
Interesting kimbers - thx for the link. A good point. I guess that's right. A50 itself is about commencing negotiations and serving notice of our intention to leave (again). But I would still argue that utltimately this is still all about trade - [b]specifically its about the nature of our access to the single market. [/b]
May has effectively ruled out EEA, partially ruled our CU and is currently sitting straddling FTA and CU with WTO being a foolhardy back stop. Hence in my mind, it remains at the core - all about trade
But you are correct - precision is needed when talking about these things!!
they need EU budget black holes and €10bn net in tariffs on their goods like a hole in the head.
So given those concerns, how does forcing that on them with a "quick clean break" make it more likely we get a good deal and more likely that the EU will survive us leaving?
Jambas we all need Brexshit like a hole in the head
At the moment, its about minimising the size of the hole
they need EU budget black holes and €10bn net in tariffs on their goods like a hole in the head.
remind me again who pays the 10bn? Is it Uk consumers?
Given the rebate and the amount actually paid to the UK it's actually a fraction of the GDP of nations as it was a tiny fraction of the UK's GDP.
As the retort to Orange Trump went, Europe might buy more American cars if they were not all so shit, the bigger worry would be the massive drop in the pound making things more expensive
Not project fear just common sense/law of unintended consequences- anyway, I think that we are slightly misunderstanding each other, so will park this one cougs.
I just mean that what we're discussing here is pretty much what we said before the referendum that we thought might happen, and our concerns were dismissed as fear-mongering.
In hindsight I don't really think "project fear" was an effort to scare people, rather it was mostly people being bloody scared.
There seems to be an assumption that business will continue as usual while the 2 year A50 process goes through, and then during any trade deal negotiations afterwards.
Businesses are not going to hang around and wait
E.g. markets will shift, we might be a large buyer of German cars right now, but that might not be the case in 2, 3, 5 years. If we get strapped for cash due to a economic downturn (short or long term), we're likely to buy far fewer German cars (one example of many).
E.g.2 international businesses may shift location to more stable/certain location (look at HSBC and Toyota might go the same way).
The net effect of this is that it may erode the UK strength in negotiation and general relevance. To go to the first example, if the market for German cars shifts elsewhere then the importance of a trade deal is proportionally less important.
To me it seems like the proposed strategy wants to put the UK economic position (which is pretty buoyant still) in stasis, switch about the rules/relationships etc. and then continue on as if nothing happened. Any sane person knows that is likely impossible.
I sincerely hope so.Though what the dimwits will do when they realise that they still haven't got a job/council house/hospital bed is another question.
So people of low intelligence were fooled into voting Brexit by a populist campaign and you hope they suffer. They are not to blame (not everyone is intelligent), the blame is with the BS leave campaign that did a better job of convincing people.
@mike tariffs are normally bourne by a mix of consumers and companies. Japanese and Koreans still sell plenty of cars here.
make it more likely we get a good deal and more likely that the EU will survive us leaving?
I think impending gloom indeed helps us achieve a better deal. The EU faces a choice between some pain & humble pie or likely collapse. The humble pie on Brexit will be tiny compared to that required on Shengen and especially the €.
It was never the UK's role to go down with Junker's ship
I just mean that what we're discussing here is pretty much what we said before the referendum that we thought might happen, and our concerns were dismissed as fear-mongering.
True - i/we misunderstood the earlier posts. Cheers. As I said, I regret that people who voted leave are also those who are more likely to suffer the adverse consequences.
Back on track now 😉
kerley - Memberthe blame is with the BS leave campaign that did a better job of convincing people.
i blame Labour, for gifting the issue of immigration entirely into the hands of jingoistic bastards.
You need to understand that manynof us think a quick clean break is best
You need to understand that many of us think leaving is idiotic.
@cougar No one on the Remain side was predicting the UK would have best growth in the G7. As Lagrande (IMF) said yesterday they totally underestimated the bouyancy amd resiliance of the UK consumer. They didn't take into account that the Leavers are delighted and hugely optimistic
Bit silly isn't it. The only people in favour are people who know cock all about how things work, and people whose jobs depend on people who know cock all.
And I know I'm not being constructive with comments like these. *sigh*
they totally underestimated the bouyancy amd resiliance of the UK consumer.
... that we're only mostly ****ed rather than completely?
People do love their credit cards.
the Leavers are delighted and hugely optimistic
That's probably the most blindingly accurate thing you've ever written on here.
[quote=thecaptain ]a key component of that is to discourage anyone else from leaving even if if costs them in purely economic terms...
Discouraging others from leaving is quite important for the economy of the EU, so whilst there might be a negative economic effect on the EU from negotiating tough, you don't need to look far into the future for it to be advantageous to them even in purely economic terms (ie it might be worse than it was, but not as bad as if they hadn't).
[quote=jambalaya ]I think impending gloom indeed helps us achieve a better deal. The EU faces a choice between some pain & humble pie or likely collapse.
Hmm, so given the above, explain to me how giving the UK a good deal helps prevent the collapse of the EU?
And I know I'm not being constructive with comments like these. *sigh*
If Maybot cant get her own minsters to stop with silly name calling (it took johnson,javid & gove less than 24hrs to go against that message)
why should us remoaning citizens on nowhere be expected to fake enthusiasm?
bouyancy amd resiliance of the UK consumer.
And their willingness in general to plumb new depths of personal debt which will have to be paid back at some point.....excellent - borrow your way out of the pending ****storm.
Surely it is an absolute disgrace that this issue ever went to a public vote.
And surely it is a fact that 90% of the UK population have no idea what the implications of leave/ stay are. Myself included.
Why is nobody held accountable?
@cougar No one on the Remain side was predicting the UK would have best growth in the G7. As Lagrande (IMF) said yesterday they totally underestimated the bouyancy amd resiliance of the UK consumer. They didn't take into account that the Leavers are delighted and hugely optimistic
Or (1) that we have just had the massive stimulus of a cut in rates and a 20% devaluation in £ and (2) Brexshit hasn't happened yet
Future growth forecasts are now being revised down - as the institution that you quote noted that the negative impact of Brexshit hasnt gone away, its merely delayed
[quote=Cougar ]
the Leavers are delighted and hugely optimistic
That's probably the most blindingly accurate thing you've ever written on here.
Indeed - it is interesting to see how bullish the Brexiteers are, seemingly ignoring what is actually happening in the world (but then I assume they get their information from articles like http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/755511/theresa-may-brexit-plan-speech-pound-recover-bounce-back-eu woo, look at the soaring pound: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=1D oops: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=1M)
people buying now, at a time of cheap credit, when they expect prices to rise later, who'd thunk?
personally, i think i'm likely to fix the current vehicle, and put the money i was going to blow on a new vehicle in to the mortgage and my pension.
[quote=Nipper99 ]And their willingness in general to plumb new depths of personal debt which will have to be paid back at some point.....excellent - borrow your way out of the pending ****storm.
It's all part of the Brexit masterplan though - as the pound weakens we'll just inflate away all that debt. I can't see any downsides to that.
Why is nobody held accountable?
They are held accountable, but the ones doing the holding to account are more interested in who was on Have I Got News For You and who wears a nice tie than in anything substantive.
who wears a nice tie
that rules jezza out then
that rules jezza out then
Err .. I think most STWers are bright enough to have got that, hurty
And their willingness in general to plumb new depths of personal debt which will have to be paid back at some point.....excellent - borrow your way out of the pending ****storm.
I wonder where they got the idea?
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I wonder where they got the idea?
big thing is to learn from mistakes unless you are trying to win the interwebz, how many points today?
Discouraging others from leaving is quite important for the economy of the EU
I would agree with that but it is still a delicate balance imo, anything overtly protectionist from the EU will also have a negative response from some members and rest of world. The EU message cannot be 'our way or crushed' just as it cannot be 'cherry pick the best bits of membership as you see fit'
The EU will need to look as if they have come out in a position of strength and UK will want to look like they have the same.
A big opportunity for the EU to show true leadership perhaps, 12% of it's population have just asked to leave.
@ Jambalaya, Japanese car makers have factories in the EU to avoid tariff.
In an if I were a European commissioner what would I do line of thinking:
- aim to put as bigger spanner in the works of the city as possible and aim to take a slice of the money to be made in commodity, currency and equity markets.
- aim to put an equally big spanner in the works on any industry base in the UK directly competing with an industry at home.
- demonstrate clearly to my population that my decision to remain in Europe was the right one.
- encourage my national champion industries to use the low pound to take over manufacturing capacity in the UK to guarantee a place in the market.
- levy customs taxes at a rate that made any attempt at fiscal and social dumping to raise productivity futile.
- take the opportunity to further regulate the financial industry to reduce tax fraud and evasion using off-shore products.
Quick google has EU at 743 Million and UK at 64 Million, UK on those numbers is 8.6% of the EU, given the turnout and result that makes it 3.2% who voted to leave
[quote=theocb ]12% of it's population have just asked to leave.
er, EU population is 743mn, so [s]8.6%[/s] 2.3% asked to leave
edit: beaten to it by mike, but I think my final figure is more accurate than his (I presume he was working on turnout and forgetting that not all of the UK population was eligible to vote - 2.3% is based on 17.4mn voting leave).
I must have mixed up eligible with population there aracer
Try googling again perhaps??
The 'UK' (please accept this) has voted to leave the EU. The EU are losing 12% of it's population (I didn't do any calculations, it's just a rough figure plucked from my tiny head.)
[quote=Edukator ]- levy customs taxes at a rate that made any attempt at fiscal and social dumping to raise productivity futile.
I'm not sure they can given the effective upper limit of WTO rates.
If Maybot cant get her own minsters to stop with silly name calling
😆
The maths is in my post. It's quite simple the UK only makes up 8.6% of EU population. If it was 100% leave it's still not possible to get 12%
(I didn't do any calculations, it's just a rough figure plucked from my tiny head.)
and overestimated 5x did you work on some vote leave stats too?
[quote=theocb ]The 'UK' (please accept this) has voted to leave the EU.
Only 27% of the UK population asked to leave. Even if all of the UK population is leaving (it isn't, I'm not the only one eligible for an EU passport after the UK leaves), suggesting that all of the UK population asked to leave is at best disingenuous.
Mike. The EU population is around 500million, I think you may be listing population of Europe???
The UK voted to leave which means 65million people are leaving the EU (from the EU point of view, it doesn't matter who voted for which side.)
At least we now know who painted the bus.
Trump has threatened to put a 35% levy on imports from Mexico. He was taken seriously so the current WTO levels are just a line in the sand that can be moved by anyone big enough to defend the new line.
My bad Europe 743, EU 510
UK would then be 12% of which 37% voted to leave
4.6% of the UK population voted to leave so you were only overestimating 3x there. Well done
[quote=theocb ]Mike. The EU population is around 500million, I think you may be listing population of Europe???
Fair enough, I made the same mistake.
The UK voted to leave which means 65million people are leaving the EU (from the EU point of view, it doesn't matter who voted for which side.)
But that wasn't what you wrote, in case you need reminding (you only have to scroll up a little), what you actually wrote was:
12% of it's population have just asked to leave.
which is patently untrue. I'm sure the EU also recognise how small a % of the UK population actually asked to leave, and I'd hope they might bear that in mind.
I'm sure the EU also recognise how small a % of the UK population actually asked to leave, and I'd hope they might bear that in mind.
fingers crossed
[quote=mikewsmith ]UK would then be 12% of which 37% voted to leave
4.6% of the UK population voted to leave so you were only overestimating 3x there. Well done
You're still making the same mistake with the referendum result, mike - 17.4mn voted Leave, which is 27% of the UK population (even though it's 37% of the electorate), hence the true figure is 3.5%.
Fair enough, I made the same mistake.
and really happy to be fact checked, I made a mistake, came back admitted it and posted the real figures it's really easy that 😉
bugger got me again, end of a very long week here, keep me honest there it's what counts admitting you made a mistake and accepting that you were wrong.
[quote=kimbers ]fingers crossed
Well as I kind of mentioned in passing, I don't need that in order to keep my rights - and apparently I can also enable the same for my children. I'm wondering whether there are enough numbers of us to actually have a significant impact on the stats? (I have to admit I've also not worked out all the implications, given my UK passport has run out and I don't have a photo driving licence would I have any issues with my only form of photo ID being a "foreign" passport?)
jambalaya - Member
@cougar No one on the Remain side was predicting the UK would have best growth in the G7. As Lagrande (IMF) said yesterday they totally underestimated the bouyancy amd resiliance of the UK consumer.
Utter twaddle.
Growth in this context isn't related to success or wealth as it is usually attributed, the "growth" you're referring to is an artifice of increasing costs, not increased buying power in the market. We're simply spending more of our income on the same things we used to due to the catastrophic change in the exchange rate.
[quote=jambalaya ].......... German trade is already down 5% due to £/€ alone add same move again in tariffs and that's a very big problem for an country facing €20-40bn in migrant costs per anum.............
on the German news a couple of nights ago it reported that the countries' last annual economic figures returned a trade surplus (remember when the UK was last in the black!), due in large part, they reckoned, to construction of new accommodation and infrastructure for all the migrants they had taken in!
Jamba
[i] Japanese and Koreans still sell plenty of cars here.[/i]
Go back a few (dozens) pages, we discussed the number of cars produced in the UK by Honda, Nissan, Toyota - and the reason why...
jambalaya » .......... German trade is already down 5% due to £/€ alone add same move again in tariffs and that's a very big problem for an country facing €20-40bn in migrant costs per anum.............
and let's not forget that 40bn number is one of your imaginary ones.
IMO the country has lost sight of the whole reason for Brexit (if there ever was one). A few months down the line and it's problems after problems but people are still defending it. But for what reason?
After all is done what is supposed to happen to us as a country that is better for us, than we have now? Are we supposed to be richer? More equal? Better prospects for our children?
Seems a complete waste of time to me this Brexit thing. Further, while everybody is focused on Brexit other areas of society are being neglected and we will experience a lot of negative unintended consequences.
After all is done what is supposed to happen to us as a country that is better for us, than we have now?
Haven't you been listening? We'll get to take back control! (of a ruined country that we already had control of.)
/sigh. I honestly don't know the answer to that, and whenever I've asked on here the Brexiters change the subject. We seem to be striving for the least worst alternative, far as I can see.
😯 And round and round the BS goes.
I would agree with that but it is still a delicate balance imo, anything overtly protectionist from the EU will also have a negative response from some members and rest of world. The EU message cannot be 'our way or crushed' just as it cannot be 'cherry pick the best bits of membership as you see fit'
The EU will need to look as if they have come out in a position of strength and UK will want to look like they have the same.
A big opportunity for the EU to show true leadership perhaps, 12% of it's population have just asked to leave.
12% of the EU 'have' just asked to leave. It is a fact from the EU's point of view.
I thought my numbers were agreeable facts for any bias and wasn't really the main point of my post but you both are still claiming that in 2 years only the people who individually voted leave are actually going to 'leave' the EU. Bonkers Britain.
There never was a reason, it was just a toxic cocktail of jingoism, xenophobia, wish for a change and a protest against whatever people happened to be feeling unhappy about at the time. There was never anything approaching a coherent plan, rather there was a lot of dog-whistling of different messages to different audiences by people who had no responsibility or authority to make still less deliver promises. Hence why they all ran away the day after the vote, leaving a bunch of zealots to reinterpret the vote as a mandate to do what the **** they want with envirommental, employment and welfare law among other things.
But 'take back control' doesn't actually mean anything. Dictators take control but don't necessarily improve conditions for society/citizens.
No discourse around what it'll actually look like for the individual.
I guess it's kept alot of people busy on this thread chatting about it...Is that a positive thing maybe? 😀
Taking your ball away from the neighbour kids is taking control. It also means you have no-one to play with and hence can't play a good game of football.
[quote=edenvalleyboy ]IMO the country has lost sight of the whole reason for Brexit (if there ever was one). A few months down the line and it's problems after problems but people are still defending it. But for what reason?
I'm not sure the Brexiteers have - for most of them it's all about keeping the foreigners out. Of course they will keep defending it so long as they still believe that will be the outcome. For example somebody who's post I saw on FB who seemed to think Maybe's speech was wonderful suggested that the biggest problem after Brexit would be the "last unclosed border" with Ireland. These people simply can't see beyond that and any price is worth it.
[quote=theocb ]you both are still claiming that in 2 years only the people who individually voted leave are actually going to 'leave' the EU. Bonkers Britain.
<sigh> go on then, quote me where I've suggested that. We were both simply point out that your suggestion that "12% of it's population have just asked to leave" with its implication of weight of feeling the EU should take account of was spin pure and simple.
12% of the EU 'have' just asked to leave. It is a fact from the EU's point of view.
Ah I think see what you're saying here, it's just slightly misleading phrasing. 3.5% of the EU's members voted to leave, but Brexit will remove 12%. (I'm assuming the maths is correct, I've not checked.)
That's quite a large difference in numbers, when you think about it. You'd expect Leave's "massive majority" referendum result to have them much closer together. 8.5% of the EU are being dragged out of anything to do with Europe, either without them expressing a desire to do so or not (either due to non-eligibility or apathy), or expressly against their wishes.
Seems fair.
(I have to admit I've also not worked out all the implications, given my UK passport has run out and I don't have a photo driving licence would I have any issues with my only form of photo ID being a "foreign" passport?
IME no.
It isn't misleading at all. 8) The UK is 'asking' to leave.
The actual point (which seems to be unimportant now) of my 'WHOLE' post was that the EU are losing 12% of it's population so perhaps important for them to show some true leadership.
I'll post it again, context and facts seem fine to me thanks.
I would agree with that but it is still a delicate balance imo, anything overtly protectionist from the EU will also have a negative response from some members and rest of world. The EU message cannot be 'our way or crushed' just as it cannot be 'cherry pick the best bits of membership as you see fit'
The EU will need to look as if they have come out in a position of strength and UK will want to look like they have the same.
A big opportunity for the EU to show true leadership perhaps, 12% of it's population have just asked to leave.
Noddies came along to pick holes in the numbers and got the facts all arse about face, then claimed only 3.5% are actually asking to leave.
flip the coin - how many of us voted to remain?
teamhurtmore - Member
flip the coin - how many of us voted to remain?
about 3.5% 😉
how many of us voted to remain?
Or perhaps even more pertinently, how many of us voted to join?
Or perhaps even more pertinently, how many of us voted to join?
I expect half of them will be dead by now.
Oh, wait, is this a "we didn't have a referendum last time" comment? I know very little about how we joined as I wasn't born.
flip the coin - how many of us voted to remain?
Is that question for me?
Flip what coin, who is 'us'?
Not sure if you asking others to consider their numbers from both sides of a coin or you are asking me about 'individual' votes. The UK voted to leave it didn't vote to remain (you seem to be accepting of this within the thread so I'm assuming you didn't mean the question for me?)
Or perhaps even more pertinently, how many of us voted to join?
about as pertinent as asking how many of us voted to join the UK 🙄
ok skimming in and out of this a the moment
my "understanding' was that the 3.5% figure was being used to question the legitimacy of what we are now doing ie, its is the percentage of the UK pop who voted leave divided by the population of the EU
so on the basis of 3.5% voting out, 12% are now being forced to leave
If correct, proceeed. If not ignore what follows
So my question is simple - 3.5% voting leave is bigger than 3.0% (? havent done the maths) voting to stay. So 12% are being affected by 3.5% instead of 3% - so what?
Of the 12% only x% are eligible to vote - guessing 50% - so 6% and more than half of the 6% voted leave and less voted to stay. Therefore we are leaving. The relationship between 3.5 and 12 is on little if any relevance - or is it?
about as pertinent as asking how many of us voted to join the UK
Good point, anyone who didn't vote to join the UK should consider themselves undemocratic and leave. (-:
Oh, wait, is this a "we didn't have a referendum last time" comment? I know very little about how we joined as I wasn't born.
Not much has changed, an extract from William Waldegrave's memoir
[[url= https://c1.staticflickr.com/1/539/31562543064_466a15d79e_z.jp g" target="_blank">https://c1.staticflickr.com/1/539/31562543064_466a15d79e_z.jp g"/> [/img][/url][url= https://flic.kr/p/Q65hqY ]waldegrave[/url] by [url= https://www.flickr.com/photos/122646756@N06/ ]mefty[/url], on Flickr
on the German news a couple of nights ago it reported that the countries' last annual economic figures returned a trade surplus (remember when the UK was last in the black!), due in large part, they reckoned, to construction of new accommodation and infrastructure for all the migrants they had taken in!
They have built enough homes to house 600000 people in 12 months, crikey....
Mefty's link, fixed:
[url= https://c1.staticflickr.com/1/539/31562543064_466a15d79e_b.jp g" target="_blank">https://c1.staticflickr.com/1/539/31562543064_466a15d79e_b.jp g"/> [/img][/url][url= https://flic.kr/p/Q65hqY ]waldegrave[/url] by [url= https://www.flickr.com/photos/122646756@N06/ ]mefty[/url], on Flickr
They have built enough homes to house 600000 people in 12 months, crikey....
Amazing what you can do when you don't [s]sell[/s]give all your building land to a Qatari speculator.