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Kelvin Europe couldn't be much weaker economically or politically.
Fantasy island. The EU is strong, but only if it sticks together.
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Country break down here as well:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
Interesting to compare, say, just Spain, and Russia, when thinking about why some people would want Europe to do badly.
another well known Brexy
I voted remain.
However, I didn't take long to accept the result. I have very little truck with people bleating about lies etc, or it being advisory when a government funded booklet said the result would be abided by.
So, having accepted the result, my view is the government's rumored approach is the right one. THM wants to try and retain as much we have. I think this is pessimistic, there is no point in hard wiring a worse position than we have now, we should select a path that allows us to try and benefit from leaving. Whether we manage to do this is up to us.
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just popped up on twitter feed,
Thank you brexiters!
Think about this one thing, would you manufacturer any sub component that had to pass through multiple customs check with all the associated costs, or would you just walk away?
Good to see Peston's ego is in tact, "I have learned", there is an embargoed release to the press tonight of the main themes of the speech - the full details are on [url= https://order-order.com/2017/01/16/may-speech-pre-briefed-quotes/ ]Guido Fawkes[/url]
However, I didn't take long to accept the result. I have very little truck with people bleating about lies etc, or it being advisory when a government funded booklet said the result would be abided by.
Er, the Tories who were in government at the time lied, and used government machinery to do so?
The referendum terms were voted on by parliament, the spin in that booklet does not change the law, or remove the responsibility from parliament to consider the actual result, and closeness of, the advisory referendum, and consider what the best way to progress should be.
I think this is pessimistic, there is no point in hard wiring a worse position than we have now, we should select a path that allows us to try and benefit from leaving. Whether we manage to do this is up to us.
Sorry, mate, it isn't up to you. It isn't up to us. There will be no chance for you, us, or I to select a path. It is up to our MPs, unless they choose to give us a vote and a say. It also isn't just up to May and her inner circle, which is why we need MPs to get a grip, and, er, get a grip on the path we will take.
Sterling's going to take another hammering tomorrow.
I voted remain.However, I didn't take long to accept the result. I have very little truck with people bleating about lies etc, or it being advisory when a government funded booklet said the result would be abided by.
Agreed so far
So, having accepted the result, my view is the government's rumored approach is the right one. THM wants to try and retain as much we have. I think this is pessimistic, there is no point in hard wiring a worse position than we have now, we should select a path that allows us to try and benefit from leaving. Whether we manage to do this is up to us.
Not quite true. We cannot retain what we had. My point there was that Dave/Sir Ivan negotiated a deal that was better than anything we will achieve. But that is history. No point crying over spilled milk.
Where I differ from the government is simple - I am in favour of FoM, so for me the EEA option is plausible. This is not the case with Therasa May. If I am being polite here, I would suggest that she is mistaken but the reality is that I am disgusted by the xenophobia that is behind that idea and the false analysis that tries to pretend that immigration is/was/will be a bad thing. I think that this is truly shameful and have no truck with it.
Of course, the remaining options lie along the spectrum of liberalised trade versus sovereignty. I favour the former so for me the WTO option is the worst of the other three.
However, all said and done, I believe that there will be a compromise. Both sides (nutters aside) know that we are facing a lose:lose scenario and therefore behind the scenes the hard work will be well advanced coming up with a compromise. Theresa will most likely get her bespoke deal as Carolyn Flint conceded today.
So in actual fact I think we agree. Hence I wanted to get on with things and get the compromise delivered ASAP.
Kelvin, the government's line was clear but not the one that you suggest. We have linked to their documents earlier.
Er, the Tories who were in government at the time lied, and used government machinery to do so?
They wont have lied if they abide by the result. If you are relying on MPs to mount a rear guard action, I am afraid you are going to be disappointed.
There will be no chance for you, us, or I to select a path. It is up to our MPs, unless they choose to give us a vote and a say.
I wasn't suggesting there was, I was saying it is up to us to try and benefit form the new situation.
@kelvin, the US spends 3.7% GDP (and US GDP is a big number !). The NATO commitment is 2%, pay up or leave seems a resonable stance imho.
@tmh EU is starting to look like Greece, numbers are based upon a falsehood. Greek "bailout" loans are worth 50 cents on the dollar. Hollande is gone, Merkel is teetering and lurching rightwards in an attempt to fend off AfD. There is no real leadership.
Here are some quotes from Theresa's speech tomorrow, as usual these days sent to the press in advance
"A little over six months ago the British people voted for change," she will say.
"They voted to shape a brighter future for our country. They voted to leave the European Union and embrace the world.
"And they did so with their eyes open: accepting that the road ahead will be uncertain at time, but believing that it leads towards a brighter future for their children - and their grandchildren too.
"And it is the job of this Government to deliver it. That means more than negotiating our new relationship with the EU. It means taking the opportunity of this great moment of national change to step back and ask ourselves what kind of country we want to be.
Kelvin, the government's line was clear but not the one that you suggest. We have linked to their documents earlier.
MP's voted on a bill for an advisory referendum that did not abdicate their responsibility.
Go and read the bill.
What the "government" of the time said in its expensive propaganda piece (that I ranted about at the time it was produced) is irrelevant, just like any other Tory puff piece that comes through the door. What parliament enacts is what matters.
They wont have lied if they abide by the result. If you are relying on MPs to mount a rear guard action, I am afraid you are going to be disappointed.
I want MPs to do their jobs.
I wasn't suggesting there was, I was saying it is up to us to try and benefit form the new situation.
Lots of people will benefit form the new situation. Which people though?
And who will lose out? I'd hate to be in UK manufacturing right now.
ask ourselves what kind of country we want to be
Ask ourselves? How about asking the people of the UK? Vote time…
Go and read the government's literature - the official line was to remain.
You can't equate Brexshit with the Tories
I'd hate to be in UK manufacturing right now.
In my circle of acquaintances the divide isn't between manufacturers and service providers, it is between people who runs their own businesses and people who work for big corporates. The former are much more optimistic than the latter, however I think this has more to do with the type of personality who thrive in the different environments.
the official line was to remain
You think I don't now that?
The government tried to present an advisory referendum as a binding one, it was not, they tried this slight of hand to help their party unite after the vote, not matter what the outcome. The referendum bill was advisory, that is what parliament voted for, and it should now fulfil its role and consider the result, and how that should shape our future.
From your earlier comments, it is a matter of doubt
Edit. I may have misread your comment. When you said Tories who were in government at the time I thought you were referring to the whole flange. You may have been referring to the Brexshiteers alone. If so I misunderstood, sorry !!
Because I said the government lied?
X post. Hope that's cleared up!
Nope, the Remain backing Tories at the head of government lied.
That document, that the state paid for, that was a blatant Remain propaganda piece, was full of deceit.
The one particular deceit I was taking about here was suggesting that the referendum was binding.
Why on earth would you think that only Leave backing Tories (other political parties are available) were less than completely honest?
I'd hate to be in UK manufacturing right now.
I wouldn't and many of the people who I know who run manufacturing companies are very optimistic this can work well for them.
I would be more worried that we have naff all in terms of materials or raw materials or people who will have money to buy manufactured goods made here or abroad.
Britain may just become one big country of backyard farmers.
One thing that will be interesting is that if it doesn't go tits up and does actually work out , who else will leave the EU?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-trade-deal-us-uk-donald-trump-theresa-may-threat-nhs-environment-food-safety-a7529836.html
Indie stating the bleeding obvious again...
This is all working out quite nicely for repaying my mortgage in the UK..... my loan value has dropped 35K (if I pay it back in Australian dollarydoos) since the leave vote.
Keep at it with the negative headlines please
"accepting that the road ahead will be uncertain at time, but believing that it leads towards a brighter future for their children"
Well, in my case apparently a bright future for my child who can no longer live in the same country as her mother. Still, it's the economy that counts, eh?
I wasn't suggesting there was, I was saying it is up to us to try and benefit form the new situation.
Mefty - good luck with that. And sorry for suggesting you were a Brexmaniac. You are of course free to change course on a whim and go with the latest bandwagon.
Me, saying strong, still remain. Not moaning about the referendum (I questioned whether referenda were a good idea in a democracy a long time ago, and I think we can see now that they aren't) - though I am angry that MPs that we pay as representatives are acting as delegates.
Anyone in Bristol West? We voted about 80% remain but Thangam is just checking no one has changed their mind on the vote. A actually a real chance to do something although it is open to abuse
http://www.debbonaire.co.uk/how_should_i_vote_on_article_50
Aaaah, the Today programme, home of all the best Freudian slips.
Anyone else spot Paul Nuttall reassuring the nation that we are at the front of the queue because Trump is an Anglophobe? Smooooth! 8)
Is the Anglo but the slip (this being the UK) or the phobe bit (well ok, that bit almost definitely is - although perhaps in UKIP phobe and phobic are generally regarded as good traits, I don't know)?
Shall we call it two mistakes in the one word? Impressive.
He's not going to become the popular entertainer that Farage is, is he.
Inflation still low but up by a third in a month. Welcome to Brexit poundland.
May's speech:
"It means taking the opportunity of this great moment of national change to step back and ask ourselves what kind of country we want to be."
Interesting choice of words that, [i]"ask ourselves"[/i] rather than [i]"ask you"[/i]. 😕
I'd take issue with "great moment" - "debacle" might be better.
Nothing really wrong with "great" - In the sense that it is just "an extent, amount, or intensity considerably above average" ([url= https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/great ]OED[/url]), rather than implying "good".
But she definitely misspelled "clusterf***" 🙂
A "moment" that has lasted at least 6 months so far though! 😆
#GeologicalTime
I like
Leave voters voted with their eyes open.
Wtf?
[i]@kelvin, the US spends 3.7% GDP (and US GDP is a big number !). The NATO commitment is 2%, pay up or leave seems a resonable stance imho.[/I]
Just because the US spends so much you expect the rest to also? Absolute waste of money, plus also remember that a lot of what is in the US's "defence" budget sits in other budgets in other countries. e.g. Veterans at $150bn and 350,000 employees. So lets compare Apples with Apples.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Department_of_Veterans_Affairs
[quote=mefty ]there is no point in hard wiring a worse position than we have now
There is no other possibility. The only question is whether we have a worse position or a much worse position - there seems no sense to me in going for the much worse option, simply because the other alternative is worse than what we have now. As THM says, that has gone.
Personally I'd not be at all averse to a Norway style deal - in fact I'd be tempted to suggest there are at least some positives from that, whilst the negatives impacts aren't all that big.
Just because the US spends so much you expect the rest to also? Absolute waste of money, plus also remember that a lot of what is in the US's "defence" budget sits in other budgets in other countries. e.g. Veterans at $150bn and 350,000 employees. So lets compare Apples with Apples.
And don't forget the effective subsidy to industry (eg Boeing) that is included in the US defence budget.
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I would like the PM to deal with these points in her upcoming speech, they seem a little at odds with recent statements from her and her ministers. A simple explanation of why they're no longer true, or why they no longer matter would be nice.
Leave voters voted with their eyes open.
There were a few comments from Brexiters on the Guardian article this morning along the lines of "I didn't vote for this- it said 'leave the EU' on the ballot paper and that's the only thing I voted for."
I found it hard to square those two things.
they no longer matter because she thinks she's going to lose the court case appeal and perhaps she thinks, however illogical it sounds, a hard brexit will be easier to get through the HoC,
She was a remainer. She "may" have faults but she is not stupid
She is now PM executing a promise that the government made
She sees no distinction between hard and soft Brexshit
What does she need to explain ?
What does she need to explain ?
how its going to make the country a better place?
'leaving the EU' is open to so many shades of grey that she can interpret that in any way she likes (except shes going with the loop shes been stuck in since the home office, down with ECJ & immigration)
The only question is whether we have a worse position or a much worse position
In your point of view, it is not one I share.
That supreme court case is taking a while to come back isn't it?
Indicates an interesting judgement perhaps? Or just a long Christmas break?
[quote=teamhurtmore ]She was a remainer.
You keep writing this - presumably because she campaigned on the Remain side. She has however in the past expressed distinctly Eurosceptic views. I suppose you could start to get the impression that she'll say whatever is best for her career.
Ultimately as you say, she is not stupid, and ultimately I'm not sure why there is any confusion about what [b]her[/b] aims are...
What does she need to explain ?
Why she's now leading the country in a direction she believes will make it less prosperous, less secure and less influential.
[quote=mefty ]In your point of view, it is not one I share.
Well now I'm really confused - you claim to have voted Remain, yet you think we'll be in a better position after leaving? I note that pretty much anybody who knows what they're talking about does share my POV - including for example that Cambridge report which even jamba seems keen on.
She was a remainer. She "may" have faults but she is not stupid
You say she was a remainer, but take a look at her history and i see someone who picked the side she thought would win. Just as opportunistic as the rest. Take a look at her history at the home office, anti european courts and immigration. Now she is in the position to eliminate both and is doing so.
can we change the thread name to.....
EU Referendum - are you hard or soft? -
She is executing the result of the vote, as promised. She has to make the best of a bad job. That is what a she is trying to do.
I'm a euro sceptic, esp re the Euro, but a remainer too. Perfectly logical. The EU is essentially about trade and investment. Both are/were best served as a member of the EU. But that is history. We are now in a different world.
can we have maggie back?
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To misquote the Pet Shop Boys - which do you choose, the hard or soft exit
The EU is essentially about trade and investment.
And i would argue the EU is about far more than trade.
One thing that has been puzzling me recently: I've heard a lot of talk recently about how Brexit (and Trump) are part of an anti-globalisation backlash and how global markets have apparently screwed some people over.
Which seems like a reasonable analysis.
But how does that fit with us wanting to leave the EU so that we can set up free trade deals with other countries? Isn't that just more globalisation but with different nations, or am I misunderstanding what people mean by globalisation?
[quote=teamhurtmore ]I'm a euro sceptic, esp re the Euro, but a remainer too. Perfectly logical. The EU is essentially about trade and investment. Both are/were best served as a member of the EU. But that is history. We are now in a different world.
Me too. Though I'm also in favour of free movement of people if that's a separate issue. The trouble is people were sold the idea that it was about other things. Well I suppose it is (and that's part of what I dislike about it), but none of them anywhere near as important as the trade. Though I suppose to some extent this whole mess up has made me more of a Europhile (or just clarified my opinions about what is actually important), and I'd far rather we became part of a European superstate with everything dictated by Brussels than where we seem to be headed.
Here's "her" explanation....
(As above I am also in favour of FoM)
And now the Brexshit is Brexshit bit..
May spot on. As a nation used to holding our Parliament to account the supra-national agencies such as the EU do not sit easily with many in Britain and their sense in Democracy. Brexit is a moment to allow us to focus ourselves globally, to expand our relations accross the world.
[quote=GrahamS ]Isn't that just more globalisation but with different nations, or am I misunderstanding what people mean by globalisation?
I think it's other people misunderstanding what is meant by globalisation, what that means for them, and how best to stop it. I suppose as I wrote above, I've come to wonder whether having separate countries is even a good thing - which may make me in favour of globalisation in the most literal sense, though I think what people are mostly against is large companies taking over the world, something I'm also against, but Brexit/Trump appear to be particularly rubbish ways to try and stop that.
As a nation used to holding our Parliament to account
hahahahahahaha.
aha.
ha.
😥
But how does that fit with us wanting to leave the EU so that we can set up free trade deals with other countries? Isn't that just more globalisation but with different nations, or am I misunderstanding what people mean by globalisation?
It doesn't, but since when does that matter?
In the new world order what is the point of the unemployable? Look at the UK we have effective full employment, yes some people might not be happy with their jobs but how does leaving the EU remove the need for employees to fill crap jobs and to fill good jobs? It doesn't make an illiterate school drop out the ideal candidate to be a surgeon.
[quote=jambalaya ]May spot on.
MRDA
Just found €10 in a drawer. Fully expecting it to be my most valuable possession in about half an hour...
Rachel
There will be a Parliamentary vote in both Houses on the final deal. Smoke and Mirrors really as it will be too late to change it in practical terms, also a trap for opposition parties shortly ahead of 2020 GE
EDIT: also the vote on the deal makes it abaolutely impossible in my view for the A50 vote to be blocked (minimal chance anyway), IMO that's a done deal now. Smart move 🙂
@allthegear I have a £15 / 15€ bid on that lovely motorbike of yours 😉 what bike's do you have ?
Graham - globalisation has also done more to lift people out of dire poverty than any NGO ever has.
Globalisation is only bad if you're white. For those people being given jobs in Mexico, India, the Philippines etc - it's great.
[quote=jambalaya ]Smoke and Mirrors really
It might be easier if you could point out which of Maybe's pronouncements haven't been.
There will be a Parliamentary vote in both Houses on the final deal. Smoke and Mirrors really as it will be too late to change it in practical terms, also a trap for opposition parties shortly ahead of 2020 GE
Oh great. More playing at politics rather than solving real problems.
I'm still struggling to understand why you think this is such a great way of doing things and is in some way a positive democracy.
So a soft FTA!
Getting the job done Shackleton, stopping people playing petty domestic politics with leaving the EU
@aracer Brexit means Brexit, delivering on that with every word
Trump - not at the back of the QUEUE but front of the LINE (again showing that Obama's speech was a setup by Cameron)
The EU is not essentially about trade and investment - read some history and stop watching the telly . .
Tell me more please....
So that vote in 18 months - 2 years time will be hard Brexit or no Brexit then.
That's a gamble.
Getting the job done Shackleton, stopping people playing petty domestic politics with leaving the EU
You mean rather than having cross party consensus we have one party imposition? (please note I'm being party neutral, all sides need to work together to deliver this for the good of all of the UK, not just one persons/party interpretation of the views of their desired voting demographic to get reelected. This is far too important to BE A PART of domestic petty politics)
Agreed. I actually missed her comment. Did she say vote now i.e., preempt court decision or a final vote
If latter yes both a trap and a gamble
We can't get intra-party consensus let alone cross-party consensus
So she doesn't want to be part of the single market but somehow things we'll get a tariff free trade deal with the EU?
I'll have a gram of whatever she's snorting!
Brexit is a moment to allow us to focus ourselves globally, to expand our relations accross the world.
This is the kind of language that confuses me jamba.
How does [i]focusing globally[/i] and [i]expanding across the world[/i] tally up with the [b]anti-[/b]globalisation viewpoint that reportedly motivated the Leave votes?
If it is anti-globalisation then why stand at a lectern with "A Global Britain" written on it?
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Well now I'm really confused - you claim to have voted Remain, yet you think we'll be in a better position after leaving?
I like many Remain voters felt the risk wasn't worth taking - better the devil you know. Do I think we will be in a better position after leaving, no idea. There are too many unknowns, both known ones and unknown ones, for anyone to have a realistic handle on that - including Cambridge academics. However, I think it is narrow minded to say we can't end up in a better position, but there is no certainty we will. The only thing I am sure of is that people will still be arguing about it in 30 years.
Mandelson is a prime example of this narrow mindedness. He is suggesting changes to the freedom of movement rules. We tried to do that for years, we failed, time to move on. He accuses May of ducking the tough decisions, it seems to me, she has made those tough decisions, he just happens to disagree with them.
[quote=jambalaya ]@aracer Brexit means Brexit
😆 - you must have misread my request, I was after examples of things which weren't smoke and mirrors