According to some, Hollande’s tough comments about Brexit negotiations are behind the shock fall in the pound overnight.Speaking in Paris at a dinner attended by some of the most senior EU officials, including the Commission’s President Jean-Claude Juncker, Hollande said:
The UK has decided to do a Brexit, I believe even a hard Brexit. Well, then we must go all the way through the UK’s willingness to leave the EU. We have to have this firmness.
If not, we would jeopardise the fundamental principles of the EU. Other countries would want to leave the EU to get the supposed advantages without the obligations.
There must be a threat, there must be a risk, there must be a price. Otherwise we will be in a negotiation that cannot end well.
He is only saying what we all knew anyway. They hold all the cards as we want to access their market and they can best ride the turbulent waters of a "hard" Brexit
TBH the RW press will go into overload about saying how they bullied us when all they are saying tis this club has rules if you do not follow them then you cannot have the benefits
None of this "negotiating" position is news as they have said this all along
Anyway Dr Fox will make it even freer as he leaves and we start using tariffs
Kimbers Hollande is fighting an election (and in massive trouble unlikley to reach the final 2). Best look at actions rather than words, after years of inaction Calais Jungle is now closed and will be flattened and vacant by December. Far from opening the border France reaffirmed Le Touquet agreement and is spending €€€€ distributing the migrants around France.
Clear the fall in £ bs $ in the middle of the night when virtually no one was trading was a technical flash crash caused by electronic trading. Fall recovered almost immediately. The lower the £ goes the more pressure there is in on Europe as their export sales head downwards. We've already seen record UK service sector activity and manufacturing is strong post Referendum as lower £ makes our exports more attractive, recycling busi ess on TV yesterday reminded us they'd had dealt with same £/€ rates 3 years ago just fine and new business opportunities in US as a result of better for them exchnage rate.
Juncker has said a lot of things over recent months. One of the things he has said most frequently is that there will be no negotiation before article 50 has been served and that all EU officials are banned from any informal Brexit talks with Britain.
Most observers haven't clocked that this presidential decree is outside of his actual powers - so the very criticism levelled at Brussels i.e. unelected officials dictating to member states what will happen is perfectly illustrated in what's happening now. It's also clear that although all member states will be negatively impacted by Brexit, the commission is much more interested in scoring political points and shoring up its power base than working through issues in a constructive orderly way. Again this highlights why significant reform of the workings of the Commission is long overdue.
So is this the new normal then?
http://polemics-pains.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/gbp-goes-eurchf-whats-going-on.html?m=1
Jambs, how is a low pound helping services 'export' ? Can see with manufactued goods
Surely a good services sector just shows how successful we are whilst still in the EU
Most observers haven't clocked that this presidential decree is outside of his actual powers - so the very criticism levelled at Brussels i.e. unelected officials dictating to member states what will happen is perfectly illustrated in what's happening now. It's also clear that although all member states will be negatively impacted by Brexit, the commission is much more interested in scoring political points and shoring up its power base than working through issues in a constructive orderly way. Again this highlights why significant reform of the workings of the Commission is long overdue.
It's very patronising to assume that this [i]fact[/i] has passed by all the member states. Iz it coz their foreign wot makes dem stoopid?
Clear the fall in £ bs $ in the middle of the night when virtually no one was trading was a technical flash crash caused by electronic trading. Fall recovered almost immediately.
[url= https://s16.postimg.org/9x7iym5ed/Firefox_Screenshot_2016_10_07_T08_25_11_321_Z.pn g" target="_blank">https://s16.postimg.org/9x7iym5ed/Firefox_Screenshot_2016_10_07_T08_25_11_321_Z.pn g"/> [/img][/url]
You have a very loose definition of "recovered"!
t's also clear that although all member states will be negatively impacted by Brexit,
Including us. 100% correct - we have delivered a lose:lose result.
BSers are more interested in scoring political points and shoring up their power base than working through issues in a constructive orderly way.
FTFY - "them and us, them and us" cry the Little Britishers
i.e. unelected officials dictating to member states what will happen is perfectly illustrated in what's happening now
He is an elected leader and what this post highlights is that Brexiters are still happy to continue to spout factually incorrect BS
Secondly the EU will be negotiating the exit not the member states
One may as well argue Scotland is being dictated to here. Except of course that is a more factually correct point but you will ignore as they cannot negotiate separately and are being dictated to be a govt they never voted for and having a policy implemented they dont support. DO you feel as strongly on that or do you just abuse points to make your own political cheap shots?
Are you suggesting the UK/Tory party leadership has been behaving differently ? Surely you are not this daftthe commission is much more interested in scoring political points and shoring up its power base than working through issues in a constructive orderly way.
Graham - i assume that Jambas was talking intra-day
Much more likely that there was a trading glitch of some sort - if currencies start gapping 6% we really are in trouble
The pic on the BBC shows the extent of the flash crash at finer resolution than that XE chart (which only does every 10 minutes):
[img] 
[/img]
On either chart it is obvious that we didn't recover fully from that fall at all, only the very worst of the dip. The Markets are open and it is still down.
Much more likely that there was a trading glitch of some sort
that'll do wonders for confidence in the currency. No one wants to be on the wrong side of a gl gl gl glitch. 🙂
if currencies start gapping 6% we really are in trouble
quite nice for a UK euro lottery winner though would mean an extra £8mil!
Most observers haven't clocked that this presidential decree is outside of his actual powers - so the very criticism levelled at Brussels i.e. unelected officials dictating to member states what will happen is perfectly illustrated in what's happening now.
As a reluctant Remainer, I have to say that this is spot on. On top of a**holes like Schulz and Scheuble trying to lay down the law on what we "have" to do. They seem to think that what goes for Greece goes for Britain, Well it doesn't, so **** right off.
Jambs, how is a low pound helping services 'export' ? Can see with manufactued goods
Because services are priced in £'s - most of our costs are in £'s wages, property rent etc. Some costs like IT hardware will be in $'s but most of cost base is £'s
I have a feeling the BoE and Government are watching £ fall and consciously not intervening, always pros and cons but right now we are seeing pros. I think if oil was at $100 with equivalent petrol prices and we had same fx move there would be a lot of outrage at even higher pump prices but oil is half that so we have a big cushion.
The world is involved in the zero sum game of competitive devaluations - so the policy ultimately self-defeating
They seem to think that what goes for Greece goes for Britain, Well it doesn't, so **** right off
Greece tried that. Look where that got them. It's ironic cos the tory usual suspects on here have spent the last 6 years comparing the UK to Greece with horror stories about the national debt and deficit etc, and now it seems we're about to be served a Greek sized portion of EU realpolitik. Still, as long we maintain our plucky spirit and stiff upper lip, wave a few union flags and pretend we still have an empire everything will be ok won't it?
Dazh - I fear that you might be failing to understand the difference between the UK and Greece which is pretty fundamental.
But why the angst with Junker - he is stating the obvious. At its core the EU is about fundamental freedoms that are not open to negotiation. He is laying out the red lines.
So there we have it - unless we blink we are heading for the hard landing.
At its core the EU is about fundamental freedoms that are not open to negotiation. He is laying out the red lines.
this
Acting with outrage that a 'eurocrat' dares to restate one of the central tenets of the EU project, is tragic
especially when it was pointed out so many times by us remonaers b4 the vote
They seem to think that what goes for Greece goes for Britain, Well it doesn't, so * right off.
Funny, we seem to be telling all of Europe what it [i]has[/i] to do. All I'm seeing in response is them telling us to * right off.
And as for the currency, I'm currently over here on sabbatical from Oz. Every time I lodge my expenses claims I get more for my money. If the pound continues to fall as much as it has since I arrived back in July I reckon my budget in AUD would almost last indefinitely...
Funny, we seem to be telling all of Europe what it has to do.
Indeed our arrogance is as breathtaking as it is misplaced
I fear that you might be failing to understand the difference between the UK and Greece which is pretty fundamental.
You're forgetting that we're in a brave new #post-truth world where we can say what we like unhindered by reality 😉
Seriously though, whilst comparisons with Greece are a bit silly, I do think the BSers (as you call them) have seriously underestimated the resolve of the EU to bring about a negative brexit outcome for the UK, even if it means damaging the economic outlook for the EU itself. The three idiots in charge of this are going to hit a brick wall of EU intransigence and they won't have the first clue about what to do about it.
The three idiots in charge of this are going to hit a brick wall of EU intransigence and they won't have the first clue about what to do about it.
I thought it was pretty clear what they'd do. Isn't a hard brexit the assumed approach now?
Well I agree with that bit 😉
We have already had hints from the Visegrads
Brexshit means Brexshit - thats the only thing that we know.
Carney and BOE and Hammond don't seem to get on so well. He might be reluctant to help the Treasury like he did earlier.
Leaders of EU counties are not laying down the law, they are just accepting the result of the referendum, and pointing out what us leaving the EU entails. Is that not what we "remainers" are supposed to be getting on and doing as well? I can see a meme in 30 months time… UK badly hit by EU exit, and it is all the fault of "menditous" leaders of countries still in the EU… it'll be reinforced in the media ad nauseum when we get to that point. The EU will still be seen as the "enemy" after we leave by those that believe in this kind of blame deflection. UK problems never the fault of UK subjects, and the way they vote.
I thought it was pretty clear what they'd do. Isn't a hard brexit the assumed approach now?
I think many people dont believe that we'd actually be that stupid, which is why that Nissan havent close dteh Sunderland plant and the pound hasnt reached parity with the dollar, yet.
and Johnson certainly keeps putting out a different message
and staying in the single market was a Tory manifesto pledge
I thought it was pretty clear what they'd do. Isn't a hard brexit the assumed approach now?
On the contrary, the BSers spent the entire referendum campaign telling everyone that the UK was so important that the EU would be begging us to remain in the single market and would bend to whatever demands we issued. Theresa May is still spouting rubbish about 'having our own, bespoke deal'. This is the biggest lie of the brexit campaign. They know there will be no deal, but still they pretend there will be one.
They need us more than we need them - remember!!
[url= https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/784324499093098496 ]fall in pound now qualifies as a crash[/url]
[img] 
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trade deffict widened last month, too
previous falls in the pound have been followed by big leaps in unemployment, we havent even left yet!
[img] http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/resources/mfunemploymentratesince1971chart_tcm77-355827.pn g" target="_blank">http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/resources/mfunemploymentratesince1971chart_tcm77-355827.pn g"/> [/img]
causation/ correlation?
This thread needs Jambys baseless optimism
it'll be reinforced in the media ad nauseum when we get to that point. The EU will still be seen as the "enemy" after we leave by those that believe in this kind of blame deflection.
Dont forget they will blame those who object for "doing Britain down" as our "negativity" will be countering the "arc of prosperity" they promised us al
No, I would Not push for the Norwegian option as they are just a tiny rich nation. UK shall and will establish their own option.GrahamS - Member
I seem to remember some Leavers on here pushing it as an option before the referendum (though to be fair it might have just been chewkw).Norway option is acceptable to RemIners given the Referendum result
If more European states ignore him he will be put in his place. Nothing he can do and if he tries to punish those states that disagree with him then state should negotiate with whoever they want in this world. More states that ignore him then the EU bureaucratic machine will be dismantled.just5minutes - Member
Juncker has said a lot of things over recent months. One of the things he has said most frequently is that there will be no negotiation before article 50 has been served and that all EU officials are banned from any informal Brexit talks with Britain.
No, I would Not push for the Norwegian option as they are just a tiny rich nation. UK shall and will establish their own option.
Quite. It'll probably be the first major economy to quite willfully take itself to third world status. I suppose that should be recognised for its novelty, if nothing else...
UK shall and will establish their own option.
I think we've already established what that will be. The only choice on the table will be to accept what the EU want, or not.
Never going to happen.zokes - Still not a customer
[Quite. It'll probably be the first major economy to quite willfully take itself to third world status. I suppose that should be recognised for its novelty, if nothing else...
Or what we want.dazh - Member
I think we've already established what that will be. The only choice on the table will be to accept what the EU want, or not.
Brexshit means Brexshit - thats the only thing that we know
🙂
Never going to happen.
I hope you're correct.
But in actuality I suspect I'll be quoting this back at you in about a year's time with a smug Australian face.
dazh - Member
I think we've already established what that will be. The only choice on the table will be to accept what the EU want, or not.
Or what we want.
I really would get yourself to your GP about your delusional tendencies
so petrol up 2p a litre within the next month if £ stays this low
Im guessing that most stock already bought in for xmas so price rises wont hit shops until early next year
so if it looks like we could be on parity with $ & € by endo of the year, just how low could it go when A50 is announced if the torys keep up the same confused/hard brexit narrative ?
And Tony Blair now considering if there is space for him in British politics.
Obviously the meeting between May and Murdoch in NY did not go as planned.
And Tony Blair now considering if there is space for him in British politics.
I guess he's in talks with 170-odd Labour MPs.
Yes, I stand correct. Why smug OZ face? You migrating to OZland? Good luck. Nice big country plenty of space.zokes - Still not a customer
Never going to happen.
I hope you're correct.But in actuality I suspect I'll be quoting this back at you in about a year's time with a smug Australian face.
Negotiation is two ways, what we want and what they want.I really would get yourself to your GP about your delusional tendencies
Why smug OZ face?
Because if the pound carries on its current trajectory I'll soon be able to afford an entire county over here with my AUD. I've actually become about 20% richer in UK terms in just the last four months, with no effort on my part.
Negotiation is two ways, what we want and what they want.
Yes, and they hold most of the bargaining chips
You are now officially 20% richer so what do you intend to do with your 20% richness?zokes - Still not a customer
Because if the pound carries on its current trajectory I'll soon be able to afford an entire county over here with my AUD. I've actually become about 20% richer in UK terms in just the last four months, with no effort on my part.
They might or they might not but one thing I know is that UK is traditionally very good at negotiation. Remember we are the original bureaucrats.Yes, and they hold most of the bargaining chips
A multi-millionaire Ex-PM intending to stir up troubles again why can't he just retires ...cchris2lou - Member
And Tony Blair now considering if there is space for him in British politics.
my prediction:
trade talks / Brexit negotiations between The UK/EU will collapse, again and again.
The EU cannot give us what our brilliant* negotiators will demand, our brilliant* negotiators will not accept what they can offer.
years will pass before something unworkable is cobbled together.
(*set sarcasm detectors to 'low' - excessive signal gain may lead to explosion)
