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No we wont - our economy will be weaker
I guess ultimately you want exports/imports balanced, but personally I think if you have an imbalance it's better to be exporting too much like China, rather than importing too much, like us.
...and for that a sustained low £ helps.
we could maybe start develop and producing more of the reagents here.Wed also have move all those computer building factories from China too....
...and a lower £ helps with both those aims.
I don't think he was serious about moving computer building factories from China...
in the modern world you dont just have stuff made in one country, we live in an era of highly interconnected global trade, protectionism is futile.
Protectionism has been futile forever, all economists agree on that.
I can't help but wonder if the current world is a special case with a few economies sucking up all the business and the various bits of protectionism the EU and other developed nations practice *is* useful in slowing, but not halting, our decline.
🙄...and a lower £ helps with both those aims.
only if the raw materials you need to make them are produced/mined/grown/synthesised here and all of our workforce could be allocated to the millions of specialist jobs accross every technology sector
even then collaborations like those we are now shut out of in the EU are trememdous catalysts for R&D
only if the raw materials you need to make them are produced/mined/grown/synthesised here
I think that's a fair point and I can't disagree that long term we really are ****ed because all we have to trade is skills and the developing nations with Natural resources will develop skills easy enough.
However in the medium term the CNY raising by 1/3 and the £ dropping by 10pc will help rather than harm.
This is the interesting bit about Brexit, fundamentally all we have is skills (knowledge based services) our natural resources are virtually non existent. As pointed out earlier in this thread developing countries by and large have natural resources and an incredible will to gain the skills. I can't believe that Brexit politicians who are reasonably well educated simply don't understand this? The thing we have to sell (skils) can be gained by anyone who wants to? We can't create natural resources- this is not a long term problem it's a short term problem.
Raw materials are typically a small part of manufacturing costs
Wages, Premesis, Profit, Proprietary Technology - all priced in £
@oldman how does being inthe EU annpaying billions for the privilege of helping other member countries get richer help with the issues you raise ?
I can't believe that Brexit politicians who are reasonably well educated simply don't understand this?
You're assuming politicans have control.
They probably do realise it, but they don't know what to do about it. There are thousands of demands on their money, and also the electorate demanding low taxes. What can you do? If you put your foot down and press ahead, whilst increasing tax take, at the next election you'll get beaten by a party promising lower taxes. If you fund investment by restricting spending on other areas, you'll lose to someone promising to increase investment.
That's the problem with politics in the UK - all politicans are damned whatever they do. And I really do blame the media for this.
As pointed out earlier in this thread developing countries by and large have natural resources and an incredible will to gain the skills. I can't believe that Brexit politicians who are reasonably well educated simply don't understand this?
I assume that their strategy is to align ourselves with the nations that have the natural resources, rather than the EU which is similarly resource limited. I suspect they'd argue Brexit frees us to get trade deals with partners with good natural resources.
That's the problem with politics in the UK - all politicans are damned whatever they do. And I really do blame the media for this.
+1
I assume that their strategy is to align ourselves with the nations that have the natural resources, rather than the EU which is similarly resource limited.
The EU has its own trade deals with those countries to which we were party, no?
^^ @molgrips politicians are in the business of getting relected. Its a 5 year cycle and by definition very narrowly focused. Frankly that was the most powerful Remain argument, if we voted Leave it may (will) be tough for 2-3 years (say) and then we won't win the next election. I think that drive the thinking of many Remainer MPs
And this is a gigantic flaw in the system, are we all agreed?
Resource rich countries like Australia,
or Canada.
https://www.ft.com/content/47c59030-ac11-11e6-9cb3-bb8207902122
etc
The UK is a relatively small market compared to the EU and as trade negotiations are never simple effort has to be put where the greatest benefit is to be found. Bluntly that isn't the UK, unless of course the UK simply roles over then negotiations can be concluded in a couple of hours with minimal effort.
Largely I think molgrips, yes.
Jamba asked how staying in the EU will make us richer as they have little natural resources - won't make us richer by staying in but more than likley stop is getting poorer (semi closed shop in Trades Union parlance) no race to the bottom....
Europe has enough food and water yet people seem to think it is short of natural resources. Even Britain would go hungry without trade.
What could we sell to the Aussies? No trade expert but I guess we will be buying lots more minerals/foods - that's going to take a lot jam sales to balance?
We can sell them water I suppose?
I thought China had the monopoly on the exportable natural resources from around the world.
FFS we aren't in the business of selling raw resources (at least not significantly). Customers for high-tech value added products and services are what we need.
What is our "product" range for the Australian Market? If it's value added tech? The Aussies are quite good at that and their Pacific rim neighbours are very good at that. This all rolls back to my origional Point about the brave new world in as much as it's not going to address the low skill working poor employment problem in the UK, we are going to create an economy that is truly miserable for the lower skilled folks in the UK - I think 10 years down the line if Brexit goes ahead we will have 10% unemployment, better productivity and probably a better off mid to upper sections of society - the bottom is going to be grim, it simply can't be anything else because if we have to survive Brexit there will be a lot of casualties as it takes generations to re educate/skill to the level required and many will simply not be capable.
oldmanmtb, my blunt opinion. Those at the bottom are worthless, if the uk is going after value added and hi tech, you need an educated workforce. Those who are doing worst in education are the white working class, no education, no point.
The mines, shipyards, steel works etc have gone and aren't coming back, you can't even argue that they can work in a call centre as you need a reasonable grasp of English and maths for that.
Free Trade doesn't create markets. Australia, China, US etc have access to EU markets but with tariffs. The US is Europe's largest export market but there is no free trade deal, all done under WTO. If we have a free trade deal with Australia we will buy and sell what we do already probably plus a bit more.
we know the point is , as even you note, it leads to greater trade what with regulations and tariffs being restrictions to trade- I am surprised this has never cropped in your business life tbh
Next you will be telling us immigration is unaffected by tariffs [ costs] or restrictions[ immigration control]
The creation of the single market (unsurprisingly) created a very significant increase in the volumes of trade both with the EU and the RoW (via joint deals). There is no logic at all to wanting to jeopardise this, only crass stupidity dressed up in xenophobic clothing.
and he think i am rude about him 😉
TMH a rising tide lifts all boats. Look at the explosion in economic activity globally following ww2 and the massive difference technology has made
WTF has that got to do with his/my points on free trade?NOTHING
Yes a worldwide boom will be a boom but that does not mean free trade is not beneficial. That does not even hint at addressing the issue.
you have the left and the right [ sorry centre] agreeing that free trade is economically beneficial.
Its impossible to argue otherwise - assuming we are just talking about money- and yet somehow you manage to argue against it.
Restrictions and costs are never beneficial to trade. It not even economics 101 its just bloody obvious
TMH a rising tide lifts all boats. Look at the explosion in economic activity globally following ww2 and the massive difference technology has made
True - but doesnt falsify my point and personally I prefer access to a single market to war, as odd as that might seem.
Cause and effect. Trade grew during the period and imo the EU had only a limited secondary impact on that. Also it's clear to see the EU has run its course economically (due to it's own incompetance and expansion into a political project) and the protectionism is actually hokding it back. Merkel's refugee / security errors could well be the death knell. You can only imagine how the inevitable request for further billions for Greece would go down right now.
Cause and effect. Trade grew during the period and imo the EU had only a limited secondary impact on that.
you are entitled to the opinion, but its wrong 😉
Also it's clear to see the EU has run its course economically (due to it's own incompetance and expansion into a political project) and the protectionism is actually hokding it back.
nope, the € is holding it back and the lack of a mechanism for recycling German surpluses - the fact that the germans dont admit this is the core problem, not...
Merkel's refugee / security errors could well be the death knell.
This just makes me sad to read. I have to avoid the other thread as I would not be able to be polite on it.
fair play jamby you made me and THM agree.
the point remains that for trade free trade is better than restricted trade.
I feel I've missed something. Is there going to be a Worlwide boom following Brexit or is it just that the tide is coming in?
I reckon Trump is the most likely finger behind the worldwide boom!
I reckon Trump is the most likely finger behind the worldwide boom!
That'll be a little boom then. 😀
you are entitled to the opinion, but its wrong
Thing is, he's right, witnessed increases in international trade have been parallel to but not caused by the EU - containerisation, palletisation and refrigeration along wit affordable worldwide air freight/postal services have the square sum of f@@k all to do with the EU but have massively affected trade patterns
Uk trade with other European nations has increased massively during the EEC years, but so has our trade with China and the US. The US and Canada are natural markets for the UK given shared language and culture, I'd rather have a free trade deal with them than Romania and Bulgaria.
Uk trade with other European nations has increased massively during the EEC years, but so has our trade with China and the US. The US and Canada are natural markets for the UK given shared language and culture, I'd rather have a free trade deal with them than Romania and Bulgaria.
I can see the logic in wanting to leave now. 🙄
No he's not Ninfan and neither are you. The evidence is clear and very well documented. However, I appreciate that it is difficult since the evidence is compiled by experts, a group of people outside the reference zone of Brexshiteers.
The comment on palletisation was amusing though, thank you.
erm your argument is that free trade does not work [EU]and you end by saying you want free trade with someone when your argument is it wont help trade 😆I'd rather have a free trade deal with them than Romania and Bulgaria.
FFS ninfan you usually dont shoot yourself in the foot Jamby stiyle when you scribble
Started xmas drinking early?
whatever we think about it the simple fact is free trade leads to more trade than restricted trade
Really we have to discuss this 😯 its as self evident truth that is not disputable hence why THM and i agree. A fact can be no more robust than that 😉
Some interesting pieces in Huffington Post commenting on / wrtten by the group "UK in a Changing Europe" based at Kings College and funded by the European Union
[url= http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/hard-brexit-predicted-by-uk-in-a-changing-europe-think-tank-theresa-may-boris-johnson-new-study-single-market-no-customs-union_uk_585ba5dee4b00768ddce2fc7?8am8sce1qmjxy1fw29&utm_hp_ref=uk ]Britain Heading for a Hard Brexit[/url]
[url= http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/anand-menon/brexit-six-months-on_b_13790930.html?1482476522& ]Blog: Brexit 6 months on[/url]
Paper (32 pages) Published in November
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Brexit-and-Beyond-how-the-UK-might-leave-the-EU.pdf
wrtten by the group "UK in a Changing Europe" based at Kings College and funded by the European Union
Your link shows their funding and amazingly what you said is just bobbins
Its funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)
Jesus jamby how can a man be so consistently unable to get things right...its because you try to do this isnt it WHY?
Junky
Where on earth have I opposed free trade?
The problems with the EU have very little to do with free trade, but in the EU's version of the 'single market' including freedom of establishment, tax portability, turning a blind eye to subsidy and the inherent problems with freedom of movement.
I, and I believe most right wingers, are all for free trade. That's not the same as what the EU is, I don't see why that's a difficult concept. The UK should be able to open free trade agreements with the US and the commonwealth, as part of the EU we are not able to. We are better off out.
Even though I am a remainer this article say it all for meand sums up the way soo many people I speak to feel.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38301495
[quote=wicki ]Even though I am a remainer this article say it all for meand sums up the way soo many people I speak to feel.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38301495
br />
In the true blue Cotswolds, I met a Conservative Party member who despaired that, in his own words, two whole aisles in his local Tesco had been given over to Polish food.
He was not a racist, nor even a xenophobe, but he was frustrated that cultural change had come to his neighbourhood without notice or consultation.
[img] 
[/img]
I, and I believe most right wingers, are all for free trade. That's not the same as what the EU is, I don't see why that's a difficult concept. The UK should be able to open free trade agreements with the US and the commonwealth, as part of the EU we are not able to. We are better off out.
It isn't, you guys are simply misunderstanding it, deliberately or not. From R Hon Hugo Swire
Today I want to debunk a myth. The myth that our membership of the EU somehow limits our engagement with the Commonwealth. I will argue that it enhances it. Some have asserted that if we left the EU, UK-Commonwealth trade would increase and migration flows rebalance in favour of Commonwealth countries. I maintain this is wishful thinking. Others suggest that we should choose between the two institutions. I maintain that they are complementary. It is not an either-or choice. The UK needs and can have both.
We are - the EU and Commonwealth are not conflicting - they complement each other as illustrated by the leaders of C'wealth countries advocating our Remain.
We are not better off - its a lose:lose:lose scenario
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-eu-and-the-commonwealth-the-uks-place-in-both--2
I love the way that the quote doesn't actually 'debunk' anything, it merely disagrees
We, the UK, cannot enter into free trade agreements with commonwealth nations while a member of the EU. You know that very well THM, it is the very definition of something which "limits our engagement with the Commonwealth"
There's nothing to debunk.
Of course, I do. So why would I post what I did?
I think you'll also find most folk labelled as 'right wing' don't want free trade, as epitomised by Trump who wants protection for US businesses.
labelled as
Well, there's your problem you see...
We, the UK, cannot enter into free trade agreements with commonwealth nations while a member of the EU.
Yes we can and we do. You know that very well ninfan, or at least you should do.
I think you'll also find most folk labelled as 'right wing' don't want free trade
Completely the opposite, surely. The lines may be becoming blurred with the new distinctions in politics, it not being a right/left choice anymore, but free trade is Adam Smith to the core.
Adam Smith was a liberal.
he also thought that morally all people would help the poor as well
He was much more proud of theory of moral sentiments
You never hear this part of the invisible hand quoted do you
I think he would be appalled by how his legacy has been bastardised by the right
The rich only select from the heap what is most precious and agreeable. They consume little more than the poor, and in spite of their natural selfishness and rapacity, though they mean only their own conveniency, though the sole end which they propose from the labours of all the thousands whom they employ, be the gratification of their own vain and insatiable desires, they divide with the poor the produce of all their improvements. They are led by an invisible hand to make nearly the same distribution of the necessaries of life, which would have been made, had the earth been divided into equal portions among all its inhabitants, and thus without intending it, without knowing it, advance the interest of the society, and afford means to the multiplication of the species.
He was very wrong about the nature of the rich unfortunately they dont GAS in the main.
Still agreeing with THM here ...it really is the season of good will to all men
Happy christmas one and all
[i]Completely the opposite, surely.[/I]
Assumption, the mother of all f*** ups.
Assumption, the mother of all f*** ups.
What do you think I assumed?
I consider myself to be right wing, - I've only not voted Conservative once in 40 years. But I'm socially liberal if economically conservative. Free trade is very much part of what I believe in.
The right is as broad a church as any. Pigeonholing all those of the right to a single set of criteria maybe makes it easier to rile against, but I doubt it leads to better understanding.
Oh - and I voted Remain.
[i]What do you think I assumed? [/I]
That right-wingers believe in free-trade.
A lot of right wingers DO believe in free trade.
And what do the rest of them believe in ?
Santa Trump and the Christmas Farage bringing them a white Christmas.And what do the rest of them believe in ?
I, and I believe most right wingers, [b]say we [/b]are all for free trade.
Fixed.
That quote about favouring trade with countries the other side of the world, with whom we don't have good trading terms, rather than those closer, that we do have great terms with, because of shared "culture", says it all to me.
He was very wrong about the nature of the rich unfortunately they dont GAS in the main.
"GAS" speculation is pointless, tax law means top 1% paying 30% of the taxes and thus providing all those schools and hospitals. We discussed having tax based on morality on the other thread. If it was setup that way people accross the spectrum simply wouldn't pay. It's about the kaw and not whether anyone apparently cares or not
Re the Labour Party for Momentum / Alliance Workers Liberty / Socialist Workers Party / Stop the War etc to end up with 100 MPs and associated researchers would be a massive step forward. They then have people in lucrative paid positions and access to Short Money, none of which they have now. The fact they don't have governmental power won't matter as they will still be far better off than they have ever been. They will see it as a long term project whilst trousering the £££ which is much more than you can raise selling a few communist newspapers
A lot of right wingers DO believe in free trade.
Of course they do, free trade is a fundamentally right wing philosophy. The left favour protectionism. That's an age old and long held trueism. Heath took us into the EEC in order to wrest long term economic control from the left. Benn, McDonnell and Corbyn have long been against the EU as it ties their hands from imposing protectionist tariffs and nationalising stuff.
Tariffs, visas and state control… …these are a few of your favourite things.
Its not and I definitely have never ever accused you of GASIt's about the kaw and not whether anyone apparently cares or not
PLenty of folk are willing to pay their taxes and pay more - JK ROwling springs instantly to mind. She does GAS.
My lord your world view is hysterical in its Trump like simplicity/stupidity- watch that rampant socialist engage in protectionism.Heath took us into the EEC in order to wrest long term economic control from the left.
May I have a direct quote form heath stating that was his reason?
Stop making things up you as you just look like a buffoon
*
That quote about favouring trade with countries the other side of the world, with whom we don't have good trading terms, rather than those closer, that we do have great terms with, because of shared "culture", says it all to me.
Eh?
It's sheer common sense that shared language and culture make for better trading opportunities and relations, and that it makes sense for us to have free trade relationships with those countries. Countries with a commonwealth legal background also share similar principles of civil and contract law. They have odd cultural similarities like driving on the left hand side of the road, food, agricultural methods, all sorts. UK market share is consistently higher in places with this shared cultural appreciation. Until the 1960's empire citizens had complete freedom of movement, why on earth get rid of this and then replace it with EU freedom of movement, it makes no sense at all.
Edit, it's just occurred to me that the reason for your contempt is that you are being lazy and prejudiced in thinking that by 'cultural' I mean either colour or religion - well, suffice to say I went to college with all sorts, from black Kenyan agricultural students to Canadian and Indian forestry students - and there was a shed load greater cultural appreciation & similarity between us than any Bulgarian or Romanian migrant.
It's sheer common sense that shared language and culture make for better trading opportunities and relations. Countries with a commonwealth legal background also share similar principles of civil and contract law. They have odd cultural similarities like driving on the left hand side of the road, food, agricultural methods, all sorts. UK market share is consistently higher in places with this shared cultural appreciation. Until the 1960's [b]empire citizens[/b] had complete freedom of movement, why on earth get rid of this and then replace it with EU freedom of movement, it makes no sense at all.
What did these Empire Citizens do the first opportunity that they had? And more to the point, why?
This has to be troll post of the thread. Great stuff. 😀
ninfan - Member
Edit, it's just occurred to me that the reason for your contempt is that you are being lazy and prejudiced in thinking that by 'cultural' I mean either colour or religion - well, suffice to say I went to college with all sorts, from black Kenyan agricultural students to Canadian and Indian forestry students - and there was a shed load greater cultural appreciation & similarity between us than any Bulgarian or Romanian migrant.
Any of them? That's quite the survey you've done
Edit, it's just occurred to me that the reason for your contempt is that you are being lazy and prejudiced in thinking that by 'cultural' I mean either colour or religion - well, suffice to say I went to college with all sorts, from black Kenyan agricultural students to Canadian and Indian forestry students - and there was a shed load greater cultural appreciation & similarity between us than any Bulgarian or Romanian migrant.
Of cpourse there's greater cultural commonality between the British Empire and Colonies, they've had a good couple of hundred of years to learn what mother england wanted them to do.
We've only had 40 odd years to learn about our closest neighbours after having previously being at war with most of them.
Lazy and prejudiced? Make me laugh.
Some of my best friends are...
I do find it interesting that you favour free movement and free trade of the Empire but reject the same coming from the EU. Is it because you're not the boss anymore?
Ah, white mans burden, very Islington...
Ah, white mans burden, very Islington...
WTF?
You've lost the plot, mate.
any Bulgarian or Romanian migrant
What is your problem with people from these countries? Is it personal?
Those I've worked, or ridden, or just chatted with have seemed pretty damn sorted.
What is you perceived cultural divide with these people?
And the French, Italian, German, Swedes… etc etc…
tax law means top 1% paying 30% of the taxes
Tax law or the disparity between the top 1% and the other 99% in terms of earnings. Both have an impact.
Of course there is a disparity there is a virtually unlimited supply of cheap labour globally.
Its a bit late now to call for unity, she seems to be very good at promoting the opposite (not as bad as trump tbf),
us citizens of nowhere are not amused.
She can have unity once she calls off this Brexit silliness.
And Jamba, that wasn't the question. Of course there is disparity, though as I recall the UK is worse than the EU average, but I was asking how much of your statement is due to bosses paying themselves handsomely as opposed to a progressive tax system?
Rough percentages are fine.