[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

Yeah I don't think that is a huge surprise to anyone who has been following this thread.

Boris was pretty pro-EU and spoke favourably about it [url= http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/02/21/boris-johnson-eu-brexit-supports_n_9286400.html ]in the past[/url].
He admitted on Newsnight that he'd written two versions of his Independent column: one pro-Leave and one pro-Remain before deciding which one to go for.

It was all just a political powerplay for him and Gove.

As I posted at the time:
[img] [/img]

@kimbers so I said 70% and you (fullfact) say 66% - was that really worth the post with charts ?

@Graham I am surprised May sided with Remain as she's a long term eurosceptic but her tactics where clearly better as she is PM.

Passporting is a red herring, its pretty cheap and simple to setup a European subsidiary assuming you don't already have one. As for Lloyds thats 96% of their business which is NOT with the EU. If that 4% is so important they should have paid the Government a huge fee on it to fund a share of the £10bn we paid to the EU. British Banks have been pulling back from Europe over the past few years as the business is typocally expensive and unsuccessful.

Oh I don't think the Remain side are innocent in this jamba.
There seemed to be people on both sides who were motivated more by the game of politics than what they actually believed was best for the country. I suspect it is always thus.

Boris was just one of the most blatant.

Noted. He did make the right choice though, I think he was key to Leave winning 😉

Narcissism won

Passporting is a red herring, its pretty cheap and simple to setup a European subsidiary assuming you don't already have one.

That's lucky because apparently "A total of 5,476 UK-registered firms hold at least one passport to do business in another member state of the EU or the wider European Economic Area (EEA). And a further 8,008 firms, registered in other EU or European Economic Area (EEA) member states, hold passports to do business in the UK, information from the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) revealed." ([url= http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-financial-services-companies-risk-5000-uk-leaves-single-market-a7318146.html ]Sauce[/url])

As for Lloyds thats 96% of their business which is NOT with the EU.

I don't think that's what they said. They said they faced a 4% drop in revenue. I don't think that's the same as saying the EU accounts for 4% of their business.

The BBC article notes that "Continental Europe accounts for about 11% of gross premiums written by the London market. "

If that 4% is so important they should have paid the Government a huge fee on it to fund a share of the £10bn we paid to the EU.

I thought that money came from the British taxpayers? Are you suggesting Lloyds doesn't pay tax?

Also.. where are you getting 66% from on that full fact page??

Using a UK-focused retail and corporate bank as an example for any argument on passporting seems rather odd.

Narcissism won

US and Germany are our two biggest X markets - 14% and 11% ie, 25% of total UK exports
Germany and the US are our two biggest sources of Ms - 13% and 8% ie, 21%

And we are in the process of pissing them both off. marvellous!

Using a UK-focused retail and corporate bank as an example for any argument on passporting seems rather odd.

It's

[url= https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/2/21/Lloyd%27s_of_London_logo.svg/200px-Lloyd%27s_of_London_logo.svg.pn g" target="_blank">https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/2/21/Lloyd%27s_of_London_logo.svg/200px-Lloyd%27s_of_London_logo.svg.pn g"/> [/img][/url]

Not

[url= https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/2/2e/Lloyds_banking_group.svg/250px-Lloyds_banking_group.svg.pn g" target="_blank">https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/2/2e/Lloyds_banking_group.svg/250px-Lloyds_banking_group.svg.pn g"/> [/img][/url]

I still have literally no idea whether the govt wants to stay in the Single Market or not. Does anyone know? 3 months in, is there any sign of a decision on this?

Jamba - bit of basic maths for you. 100% subtract 44% does not make 66%.

You are a full 10% out, the values are 56% row and 44% eu

Oops, excuse me!

Oh they have lots of plans and decisions - honest they do - but they can't tell us what they are because it would ruin negotiations y'see.

So over the next few years we need to blindly trust our politicians to secretly make lots of decisions and plans that have the potential for a massive impact on our future, with no public oversight.

Because democracy!

I still have literally no idea whether the govt wants to stay in the Single Market or not.

the problem is most of the cabinet want to remain part of the single market but the EU would want to keep the free movement goods, services and labour as part of the deal and some cash.... which is going to look awfully like we never left come election time.

@kimbers so I said 70% and you (fullfact) say 66% - was that really worth the post with charts ?

70 vs 56 is worth mentioning as graham notes 😳

I think a large part of the services number is a result of the Rotterdamn effecf, ie intrnational business booked through an EU center like Dublin, this is easy to move and not really related to the EU. Certainly the case with one of my employers.

70 vs 56 is worth mentioning as graham notes 😳

That's the closest I've ever seen you come to admitting you might have got something wrong.

Well done. I think we're making some real progress here. 😉

FT running article today on the turf war over Brexit within the government.

Dave was right on one thing - self-inflicted harm

I still have literally no idea whether the govt wants to stay in the Single Market or not.

My 2 cents (not my preferences but my view of Govt position)

Yup we would like to stay in the single market if we have no freedom of movement, no budget contribution and no supremacy of ECJ

If we have to take a limited number of EU migrants but can place restrictions on in work benefits that could still work

What I think the most likley outcome is we do not sign up for access to single market (this saves face for the EU) but we agree a more limited trade deal focusing on a few key mutual sectors with no freedom of movement, no budget contributions and no ECJ

If EU won't agree to that we'll go WTO tariffs.

look at the actual practicalities of how to actually get out without seriously impacting the country (for a generation at least

Possibly a free movement for x years and slow Brexit to allow all to adapt.

What I think the most likley outcome is we do not sign up for access to single market (this saves face for the EU) but we agree a more limited trade deal focusing on a few key mutual sectors with no freedom of movement, no budget contributions and no ECJ

Only a few thick racists really want that though so it's probably not going to happen.

Oh I know what the problem is. And there is only one sensible solution, which is to ignore the referendum result.

Most brexiters think we've already left, so perhaps we should just let them carry on believing that, and do nothing.

Interesting interview with Boris in NY on Brexit. He suggested A50 couod be fast-tracked and be completed faster than 2 years amd the deal would be customised for UK/EU. He made clear all the key campaign promises would be delivered. Boris also pointed out that the US exported more to Europe and those exports grew faster from mid 1990's to today than we did, membership of the EU is not essential for trade.

Please list those key campaign promises.

He made clear .....

....was that with a straight face?

Clarity and Bojo are uncomfortable bedfellows

Boris might possibly be more clueless than you, so I'll not hold my breath.

Interesting interview with Boris in NY on Brexit

Linky?

He made clear all the key campaign promises would be delivered.

All of them?

[img] [/img]

Just listened to Lloyds Insurance Chairman. Re-iterated Lloyds was a global business and that if passporting was lost they wouod just "write" the business from a European subsidiuary. In summary no great change.

@Graham Live interview on Sky News, maybe a link on their website/Apple TV or up on YouTube later probably

I think he was key to Leave winning

Tell me again, what have Leave actually won?

ted Lloyds was a global business and that if passporting was lost they wouod just "write" the business from a European subsidiuary. In summary no great change.

Unsurprisingly the CEO of Lloyd's has a very different conclusion describing the folly as "a major issue for us to deal with" and indicating that it could move operations out of the U.K.

No great change there then..... 😯

Re-iterated Lloyds was a global business and that if passporting was lost they wouod just "write" the business from a European subsidiuary. In summary no great change.

That was the story I was commenting on earlier. They said they weren't yet sure whether they'd establish one subsidiary or go further and open branches in all 27 EU countries.

What was clear was that they expected some Lloyds jobs to move from London to the EU and that they expected the "huge workforce" of London's insurance brokers would be making similar plans.

Live interview on Sky News

Thanks, will look for that. Sounds [i]interesting[/i].

He made clear all the key campaign promises would be delivered.

The problem is, everyone has a different idea of which promises were "key", and they were contradictory.

Some don't even seem to know what amounts to a 'promise'

Or care when making them - talk is cheap

Well, you could argue that it was all 'suggestions', some of which were known to be impossible, especially when taken together, rather than 'promises', in which case, there were no actual promises, so nothing needs to be done, or alternatively anything can be done.

WTO

[i]Then there are the problems for trade. The idea that we can do without a trade agreement is based on the theory that tariffs are no big deal and the EU won’t put up barriers to trade because it would be an act of self-harm. The truth is more complex. The World Trade Organisation prevents countries discriminating between their trading partners. If you raise or lower tariffs for one nation you must do so for all WTO members. This is the principle of “most favoured nation” treatment. Thus, when imposing tariffs on the UK, the EU would not be acting out of spite but merely following the rules of the WTO trading system. This is why we need a trade agreement.

Moreover, if the UK opted to impose retaliatory tariffs on imports from the EU, WTO anti-discrimination rules would require us to impose the same tariffs on all of our trading partners (excluding any with which we have negotiated a preferential trade agreement). Should we choose to remove tariffs from EU products altogether, we would have to do the same for all WTO members; thereby destroying our manufacturing base and agricultural industry (the harsh reality of “unilateral free trade”).[/i]

[url= http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/15/crashing-out-of-the-eu-without-a-trade-agreement-would-be-an-act/ ]Great idea[/url]

ninfan - Member
Some don't even seem to know what amounts to a 'promise'

Best line of the thread. Plus one, ninfan, plus one.

I certainly have no idea what the quit faction promised, because every time I see something that looks like a promise, they seem to come along and deny it was a promise.

Perhaps something about kicking foreigners out? I'm not sure.

TMH I saw the Lloyds CEO interview on Sky, he said it would be easy to move the business - a handful of brokers move/none ? The fronting part is trivial and will be back-to-backed with London market anyway. As he said 96% of their business in NOT with the EU

The Re-moaners don't want Brexit to be a success as they'd be proven wrong. We have already seen all the doom and gloom predictions go up in smoke, uk recession, global recession, punishment budget, crash in house prices etc etc. The whole EU striaght jacket is designed to crush the life out of its members, of course they want people to think there is no alternative.

The US does huge amounts of trade with the EU without any special deal, whilst a deal is desirable provided it comes with no strings like freedom of movement or budget payments if there is no deal then so be it. Perhaps that what Boris meant when he said A50 may take less than 2 years, EU won't agree a deal without freedom/budget so we pull the plug early and save £1bn a month ?

@ign Leave made it clear all EU citizens would be welcome to stay (assuming equivalent rights granted to uk citizens) so "kicking out foreigners" was not on the list.

If EU won't agree to that we'll go WTO tariffs.

Of course we will have to re-join the WTO as independent members, which would be a long and torturous process, just look at how long it took Russia and China to join, and we will really have to hope that other independent members in the WTO don't have an axe to grind with us, I can think of a few.

And that's just for starters. As I have said, the World is unionised.

The Re-moaners don't want Brexit to be a success as they'd be proven wrong. We have already seen all the doom and gloom predictions go up in smoke, uk recession, global recession, punishment budget, crash in house prices etc etc.

We haven't left the EU.

TMH I saw the Lloyds CEO interview on Sky, he said it would be easy to move the business

Given that the CEO of Lloyds is a woman, I find that hard to believe....

😆

Given that the CEO of Lloyds is a woman, I find that hard to believe....

You are quite right of course, it was the Chairman not the CEO my mistake

The Re-moaners don't want Brexit to be a success as they'd be proven wrong. We have already seen all the doom and gloom predictions go up in smoke, uk recession, global recession, punishment budget, crash in house prices etc etc. The whole EU straight jacket is designed to crush the life out of its members, of course they want people to think there is no alternative.

No Brexitmaggedon in our time - don't worry it'll all be over by Christmas.

[url= https://c2.staticflickr.com/9/8370/29863284345_6a2f90152a_b.jp g" target="_blank">https://c2.staticflickr.com/9/8370/29863284345_6a2f90152a_b.jp g"/> [/img][/url][url= https://flic.kr/p/MuV91R ]No Brexit meltdown in our time..[/url] by [url= https://www.flickr.com/photos/82598458@N05/ ]jamesanderson2010[/url], on Flickr