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It's just common sense innit who are going to give free money to Greece forever? Germany?
Maybe. Historically the Greeks were made to accept Germany defaulting on debts after the war, so it's sort of payback this century.
Greece pegged itself to the Euro at far too high a rate, and their public finances where not ready to join really. The rules were fudged to let them join, again, because of history, and politics, it was not a wise/sane move financially at all. If they are to be kept in, lots more fudging and pain to come. This, and many other aspects, of the Euro project are flawed… but the situation before the Euro was also a mess for the southern countries. The Euro can, and I'd argue is being, made to work, but the flaws and mistakes are very real, no point anyone arguing otherwise. Imperfect, but will probably hold together and move on… it has at least as much chance as the Sterling area of holding together anyway.
Jamba - I didn't edit anything
binners - Member
More importantly.... is this going to have any effect on cheese?
"Not going to lie ... it's hard at the moment ..." (Roger the alien in American Dad) the price of imported Greek Yogurt might increase. 😆
Waitrose actually sells imported Greek Yogurt so well done to them. 😯
kelvin - Member
Maybe. Historically the Greeks were made to accept Germany defaulting on debts after the war, so it's sort of payback this century.
Yaa ... the question is how much for how long before the German pull the plug, bear in mind we are talking about German machine vs emotional Greeks.
@tjagain, He's talking about [url= http://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/eu-referendum-are-you-in-or-out/page/503#post-8136821 ]this one[/url] being edited into [url= http://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/eu-referendum-are-you-in-or-out/page/503#post-8136839 ]this one.[/url] I do hope he's not someone important in a bank or has a job where attention to detail is paramount. 😯
The German machine is doing nicely out of the Euro though, so not just altruistic for them to make it work.
Some interesting figures from a new analysis on who voted for Leave and Remain:
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamesball/heres-who-voted-for-brexit-and-who-didnt
Perhaps the most confusing stat is that 2% of self-identifying UKIP voters voted to Remain 😯
Thoughts on what the EU will do next about air quality in cities by the way…? I'm looking forward to UK papers reporting on the evil EU moving in to try and push the UK government to take measures to clean things up… shall we play guess the headlines?
Perhaps the most confusing stat is that 2% of self-identifying UKIP voters voted to Remain
Many older voters asked their kids, and voted how they wanted, knowing that by the time an exit is fully played out it'll be for the younger generations to live with, not them. Not all UKIP voters are selfish.
Most interesting stats for me are for Labour voters… with the majority voting remain… and a leadership that was ambivalent before the vote, and supporting of the government's march towards the door since. Some Labour MPs must be pulling their hair out.
the one that interests me on voting patterns is around 1/3 of SNP voters voted out of Europe
The magnificent Rees-Mogg owning the nay-sayers:
https://mobile.twitter.com/BrexitCentral/status/806571270099697664/video/1
"Who was it supposed to advise…?"
Is he finally admitting it is advisory? Perhaps he's got around to reading the referendum act he voted for.
Is he a real person? lol
No, he's a womble, one that polishes &^cks.
Better now Ninfan
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Many older voters asked their kids, and voted how they wanted, knowing that by the time an exit is fully played out it'll be for the younger generations to live with, not them. Not all UKIP voters are selfish.
Yeah could be that I suppose, though maybe if they were so altruistically inclined, they should have had that chat before they started voting for UKIP and not waited till the UKIP voting had already forced the referendum.
Rees - Mogg is one of the most lacking in sense tories there is. Took his nanny with him door to door campaigning. He does not live in the real world. a fud.
So taking a read of the reports, despite Jamby now saying the path is clear etc. the government will be expected to publish a plan and allow the OBR to analyse the impacts before it can start, odds are that the SC will confirm that Parliament needs to vote to trigger A50 explicitly and that will be done after the plan is put forward. So still in the same position but when it comes to the MP's voting then it will be done with the intention of the Government (Well TM and the 3) being made clear. Hardly sounds like full steam ahead ignore the icebergs at least.
I hear the OED are currently still waiting for number 10 to add some more words to the Brexit Definition.
Graham, yes just saw that. Here is Huffington Post's take and the full report.
IMO the key thing about education is that lower qualified people are in the types of jobs (or no job) most impacted by uncontrolled immigration.
http://www.natcen.ac.uk/our-research/research/understanding-the-leave-vote/
Jamba - I didn't edit anything
TJ correct as @captain points out there where two posts, you had posted another so when mine was posted that appeared above mine where I had expected mine to appear below your first one which is when I hit repy. Hence the confusion.
@Nipper and @mike, certainly not cut and dried but a positive step forward from Brexit standpoint. I don't see anything in a Brexit "negotiation" document the OBR could comment on. Frankly it's just going to say we want x, y and z .. we may pay something for that to be agreed or we may not ... and our fallback is hard Brexit and WTO tariffs. The repeal bill will enshrine all existing EU legislation and employment rights. Job done.
if only it was so simple .
Is he finally admitting it is advisory? Perhaps he's got around to reading the referendum act he voted for.
Eveyone said the Referendum was advisory. The Government has been so advised and is now cracking on with it 8)
Top work by the Right Honourable Gentleman btw
Frankly it's just going to say we want x, y and z .. we may pay something for that to be agreed or we may not ... and our fallback is hard Brexit and WTO tariffs.
Debate and Vote By Parliament and then Pass to the Lords if it passes who may wish to refer back for further scrutiny.
If all that passes then A50 the be declared and then the Government can propose it's great repeal bill and if you reckon they won't try and leave a few bits out you are truly deluded.
The repeal bill will enshrine all existing EU legislation and employment rights. Job done.
Summary page, new voters, committed voters, broad church of voters, certainty of outcome ... all did it for Leave
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The great repeal bill is going to be virtually impossible as EU regulations are included and intrinsic to lots of other bit of legislation.
Hundreds and hundreds of laws, regulations and rule are going to havee to be included in this.
Did anyone else notice Davies asking the CBI what bits of red tape they want abolished? Say goodbye to your workers protection, minimum holidays etc.
an image so I can't quote but..
"The three main groups; affluent Euroskeptics, older working class and a smaller group of economically disadvantaged, anti immigration voters"
Yep thats them. Think those are the ones we all identified on about pages 1 or 2
😆
why dont you mention immigration Jambalaya . you missed it ? it is on the second line !
nothing new in that summary .
My nan voted out, because she has the daily mail on subscription. I cant disown her for being gullible.
It's a right mess tbh, any plan will contain nothing of substance as it would disadvantage the UK's bargaining position.
The lack of said substantial plan could spook parliament into non agreement, especially without guaranteed market membership which comes with the FOM caveat, essentially a veto, or at least a re think.
It's essentially catch 22.
It's a fine mess. A mighty fine mess. A mess of such magnitude that the British can be proud of for years to come, a mess you can tell your grandchildren about.
And all because one person, David Cameron, was scared he'd lose a few votes to UKIP.. .it would be funny if it was a TV show, but it's real life.
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Been out so only briefly reviewd the € bllx
Of course its flawed and by design it has to fail - the only question is when. But this tells you one thing - EU is about compromise and kicking cans down the road - which is totally inconsistent with any 'absolute' arguements.
You have to be amused at so-called LWers who are happy with a situation which cases massive wage deflation for workers and grotesque levels of unemployment among the young - socialist solidarity for you! With friends like that...
Next thing you know English folk will be going into these countries buying up more than one property while locals are left homeless on the streets....
especially without guaranteed market membership
@matty we are 100% NOT going to be in THE single market. We are going to have some sort of trade deal possibly the WTO one which in my view is the preferable and pragmatic option.
Well done on finding the img button, still doesn't address the points though does it, and we now seem to be skipping over the challenge to the view that last nights vote has somehow green lighted whatever TM wants to do. I'll assume that ignoring it means you agree with us.
He does not live in the real world.
Is he a holgram? He seemed very real as an old client of mine many moons ago?
so basically the people who have the most to loose have shot themselves , not only in the foot , but straight between their eyes .
no wonder IDS is getting so exited and angry about Brexit, it is a dream come true . he is going to screw the poor and disadvantaged , and they voted for it !
TMH the Casey report is interesting reading and explains why the UK isn't the country you thought it was, we don't see much of what it speaks about in leafy Surrey. Ditto the Kirby Swales one .. graph of signifcantly increasing eurosceptism over last 20 years, a few dips but trend is clear
@cchris no those people have voted to reflect that the EU has done nothing positive for them (negative in fact) and they want to give Plan B a go.
but we all know that it is Westminster which has done nothing for them , not the EU . and it is only going to get worse .
I need no reminding about the state of the country - its very depressing indeed thanks!
If you're talking about the currency, you'll have to explain the fatal flaw to this stupid bystander, as I see no fatal flaw.
Is a great line. Imagine standing in any S European city and arguing this!!!
@mike I don't need the button I can type [ img ] [ /img ] plus I thought STWers might find them interesting and possibly wouldn't download and read the whole report
so basically the people who have the most to loose have shot themselves , not only in the foot , but straight between their eyes .
They were warned
@cchris no those people have voted to reflect that the EU has done nothing positive for them (negative in fact) and they want to give Plan B a go.
They "feel" the EU has done nothing positive for them despite the many positive things that it has. Most of the major grievances will not be solved by a Plan B communities with near zero EU immigration worried about EU Immigration
Job losses
Under investment in schools and hospitals
Poorer working conditions
Rising house prices
They have been let down by successive UK governments the main reason Remain had such a hard time is that those leading it would have had to confess that it was them who had caused most of the UK's problems not the EU.
Anyway Parliament to Vote and Debate the Brexit plan BEFORE declaring A50, lets see what they manage to propose for that, I hope there is some backbone and anything without sufficient detail is rejected and that the contradictions are highlighted. Putting the Brexit lot and their plan in front of a select committee would be a start. It's how democracy in the UK works.
and to add
jambalaya - Member
@mike I don't need the button I can type [ img ] [ /img ] plus I thought STWers might find them interesting and possibly wouldn't download and read the whole report
[b] and we now seem to be skipping over the challenge to the view that last nights vote has somehow green lighted whatever TM wants to do. I'll assume that ignoring it means you agree with us.[/b]
give Plan B a go
and that being....?
WTF can they debate? I know this is Xmas time, but do we need more pantos?
Its a NEGOTIATION between two sides - do people really think that we* agree a nice list of must-haves and noce-to-haves and give it to our friends to ratify?
Have we suspended all reality now? Next thins we will be pretending to scrutinise while respecting the original timetable. But no one would be silly enough to say that surely - goes off to check news website.... 😯
*we ie parties who themselves cannot agree!!
Its a very strange world when we have to rely on D Davis of all people to say something sensible
He added: "This is a negotiation; it's not a policy statement. And, therefore, where you are aiming for may not be the exact place you end up."
Its a NEGOTIATION between two sides - do people really think that we* agree a nice list of must-haves and noce-to-haves and give it to our friends to ratify?
THM it's also the UK's process and democracy.
As far as a negotiation it's more like defusing a bomb with a timer and 5 remote detonators, or worse Bullys Prize Board.
As far as debate what I would like to see is Parliament presented with facts and analysis, at least of the worst case Hard Brexit and the impact that would have on the UK, an acceptance of the mutually exclusives (free trade without free movement) etc.
As was always the case the referendum which went to a very slim margin was to advise parliament of the next steps. The can take the advice, look at the outlook and situations and then take the next step. What people are asking for is that the UK follows it's laws and respects the process.
He added: "This is a negotiation; it's not a policy statement. And, therefore, where you are aiming for may not be the exact place you end up."
Which is useful as with most of these negotiations we negotiate and then ratify the outcome, this one works differently. It's an all in hand of poker and the negotiating team need to have the backing of parliamnet before putting the house on what they think is a good hand.
Thing is in this "negotiation" we have nothing to offer. We are beggars. What the 3 clowns have said they want is not on the table. the 4 freedoms are indivisible.
We don't have a poker hand and the EU know it. Its a 7 and a 3 against a pair of queens!
THM it's also the UK's process and democracy.
Yes and we have a result of a democratic process.
Jambas seems to be correct on this issue at least. We have just had a vote that commits us to an A50 timetable. Progress (albeit down a bad path)
Now for the 16 word bill!
Thing is in this "negotiation" we have nothing to offer.
No really.
Mikesmith - hard exit is not the worst case - its the only thing that can happen - or stay in on the same terms as now. Even the very unlikely EEA option means paying the same in, obeying most of the same rules and accepting free movement of people ie no change
Yes and we have a result of a democratic process.
The first part of it. Parmimanent was always due to have the final say.
Jambas seems to be correct on this issue at least. We have just had a vote that commits us to an A50 timetable. Progress (albeit down a bad path)
To a point but the SC is very likely to show that to declare A50 the government needs a plan & that plan could form the basis of a bill to decalre A50
Now for the 16 word bill!
Which I would expect to be voted down unless a decent plan was put forward first.
The EU has already stated quite clearly that some of the stuff that the UK supposidly wants is not available without conceeding on others. The UK's plan is non existent and based on blind optimism and wishful thinking. If that is all they are taking forward (threats of Prosecco wars etc.) then it is the job of Parliament to call a halt to the proceedings.
Interesting, so the gov puts forward a very narrow bill and Parliament votes it down right through the deadline they have just agreed. Today has been worthwhile then. Bloody politicians.... 😀
To a point but the SC is very likely to show that to declare A50 the government needs a plan & that plan could form the basis of a bill to decalre A50
I very much doubt this is what the SC is opining on
Without the actions of HM Opposition represented by Gina Miller the SC is unlikely to have been involved at all, so it is not true to claim that P was going to have the final say.
It might be me being a bit thick but surely the common sense approach would be for the Tory Government to provide guidance on what they are trying to achieve then get a vote of confidence from parliament (as decreed by the judges or enemies of the people) then go out and see what the EU offers (don't for one moment think this is negotiation I sell stuff for a living and know what elements are required for a negotiation) bring back the offer and put it to a vote in parliament.
Trying to achieve? A withdrawal from the EU. What's difficult about that?
The people got it, why can't MPs?
It would have always required a bill of some sort just as it was expected to be a remain vote nobody bothered to check. The opposition is in dissaray as this is not a party lines issue, the government is also split but I'd not expect to see much tory action on it until the feel it's now or never - no point rocking the boat early. I probably phrased the SC part a bit off, it's likely that they will agree that parliament needs to vote/approve/be consulted BEFORE passing A50. The goverment has just commited to putting a plan forward before an A50 bill.
That plan will directly influence the outcome of any vote. After the hardcore leave there are a lot who sway towards but will not be happy granting the 3 idiots a blank chequebook especially with Borris's unique style of negotiations. JC has zero chance of whipping his party on the issue and having the Lib Dems & SNP to stand with may temp a few over quite easily.
Just remember (old stat but still relevant)
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If it went along party lines the government has a working majority of 13, thats a small target if you want to take something down especially given the traditional tory splits on Europe. As much as many saw Brexit and Trump as unimaginable, the same could be said of MP's voting with their beliefs not the referendum.
I have had multiple conversations with rabid Brexiteers who said they assumed we would still be able to trade on a level playing field post Brexit including access to the single market?
Now is this a line they have been fed to get their exit vote or is it simply an assumption?
Also THM not all the people got it in all the same way
Actually who do you think a vote of no confidence would suit most!
In hindsight your,opening comment is correct but without Ms Miller there is a strong chance that the gov would have got away with it. what evidence was there to the contrary?
How silly of them
Because they have swallowed the arrogance fed to them that they need us more than we need them.
As for the WTO that Jambalaya opines to then we will have zero influence there as we are not part of the group that sets policy and direction of which one of which is the EU and which, oh hang on......
There appears to be a fair amount of cut your nose off to spite your face approach to Brexit, not sure we can afford to chuck our teddies out of the pram and **** off into the sunset selling chutney to India. I will once again labour the point- WHAT DO WE HAVE THAT AMERICA INDIA CHINA AUSTRALIA want to pay top dollar for? (That they already don't own?) Trade deals are imaterial if you don't have a product or service with "demand" 10% drop in GDP is catastrophic for the UK
In hindsight your,opening comment is correct but without Ms Miller there is a strong chance that the gov would have got away with it. what evidence was there to the contrary?
TBH no idea and I don't really care, so long as somebody is there to hold the government to account then thats enough. This one is a long way from done and I'd have to say the conclusion is less that certain while I understand your desire to end the uncertainty this may be the case where it needs to run it's course and have one final vote by parliament. If it's voted down then UKIP can rant and rave if it's leave then good luck to the UK, those
"The three main groups; affluent Euroskeptics, older working class and a smaller group of economically disadvantaged, anti immigration voters"
will have got what they wanted and the rest will be expected to fix it.
Recent reports that the the other member states still have differences but are united in making sure that over Brexit they come away with the best deal they can as they hold all the cards should be warning enough. There will be a price to pay for everything the UK wants - it's not being vindictive, it's not to teach the UK a lesson it's because that is what happens when the losing side negotiates.
Well I think its free trade with these guys then
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How can it be voted down, they have agreed the timetable. It's going to happen.
Or that could just be the Rees Mogg family at home.
Old man since the first name on your list is our biggest export market, is the answer quite a lot?
teamhurtmore - Member
How can it be voted down, they have agreed the timetable. It's going to happen.
They have agreed a timetable, the SC will ensure that a vote is required, many things have a timetable that never happen as conditions and ideas change. The timetable is important as it outlines what the government needs to do before parliament will vote on an A50 bill and when they plan to do it.
Brexiters, have a look at what Britain's imports and exports are made up of. [url= http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/top-UK-exports.html ]Imports and exports.[/url]
Now consider the companies within those sectors that are doing the importing and exporting. Now consider who owns those companies, the board members pension funds etc. And the partners of those companies.
You'll reach the conclusion that the people who will make decisions after Brexit very often aren't British and have no incietive to stay in the UK other than that it is a cheap manufacturing base with low taxes [b]within the European Union with access to its markets[/b]
They have agreed a timetable, the SC will ensure that a vote is required,
True
many things have a timetable that never happen as conditions and ideas change.
True, but what is the relevance here? Or is this part of the "delay/frustrate and we can eventually ignore" strategy?
The timetable is important as it outlines what the government needs to do before parliament will vote on an A50 bill and when they plan to do it.
Are you sure? Can't see what it outlines other than some vague notion of presenting something. If there are any winners (?) last night, it was the Gov and the Brexshiteers. They got a much better result than the obstructers.
Indeed edukator - you forgot the lowest level of worker protection in the EU as well. This is how we have attracted inward investment. This will now stop. No incentive for multinationals to have a manufacturing presence in thee UK after we leave
"If there are any winners (?) last night, it was the Gov"
The majority of the Govt, including the PM are remainers.
So any credible impediments and/or credible excuses to delay are welcome to them.
Sure - the government won after having to agree to do something they said they never would!
*sings*
You spin me right round baby right round...............
OOB, so we are going for the delay and obstruct model of obstruction after all. Last night was nothing more than an opposition botch. You only have to look at which side had smiles in their faces to understand.
Indeed edukator - you forgot the lowest level of worker protection in the EU as well. This is how we have attracted inward investment. This will now stop. No incentive for multinationals to have a manufacturing presence in thee UK after we leave
PSA: fact-based alternative explanations are available
Its a NEGOTIATION between two sides - do people really think that we* agree a nice list of must-haves and nice-to-haves and give it to our friends to ratify?
"OOB, so we are going for the delay and obstruct model of obstruction after all."
No doubt, unless you think Brexit will be a success and a vote winner.
How can it be voted down, they have agreed the timetable
And those that vote it down will claim that the government is undermining the timetable by not respecting parliament and giving them something that they can reasonably approve.
Meanwhile the government will claim that the opposition to their bill is ignoring the timetable when really the referendum gave them carte blanche to do what they like and parliament should sign up to that.
The arguments will go along the lines of "the people voted for Brexit" "but not on any terms or at any cost" etc etc. Everyone playing a defender of democracy.
Both sides have easy ways to make a mess of this while also claiming the moral high ground. That, more than the fact of Brexit itself, is what will make this a complete clusterf***.
NEGOTIATION
"OOB, so we are going for the delay and obstruct model of obstruction after all."No doubt, unless you think Brexit will be a success and a vote winner.
At least that's honest (in one sense)
It is worth listening to Dominic Greave on Today this morning as to the meaning and effect of last night's motion - a parliamentary opinion pole and nothing more.
And those that vote it down will claim that the government is undermining the timetable by not respecting parliament and giving them something that they can reasonably approve.Meanwhile the government will claim that the opposition to their bill is ignoring the timetable when really the referendum gave them carte blanche to do what they like and parliament should sign up to that.
The arguments will go along the lines of "the people voted for Brexit" "but not on any terms or at any cost" etc etc. Everyone playing a defender of democracy.
Both sides have easy ways to make a mess of this while also claiming the moral high ground. That is what will [s]make this a complete clusterf***[/s] [b]prevent anything too silly happening.[/b]
Yup, something like that.
Neuberger's comments were interesting too - especially given his role.
What will happen? A50 will be triggered by end 1Q17.
Newsnight discussion last night seemed pretty clear, it's done and it appears extremely unlikely A50 could be stalled now. Stephen Kinnock was in agreement and pretty clear Labour would not attempt to block it (70% of Labour MPs sit in constituencies which voted Leave). The vote was a massive win for the Government in all respects and at the end of the day was achieved very easily.