[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

You Brexiters aren't asking questions, trying to find out. You've already made your minds up permanently, and are just trying to rationalise the decision.

I didn't vote Brexit. You just don't get how that tribal "You can't be on our team" tactic plays out. You call me a racist, you call me a breixiteer. As it happens I didn't let the abuse change my vote, but did it alienate the critical 2pc of people needed to win this vote away? Yep, IMHO it did.

I suspect you don't care though. You've much rather lose, have something to complain about and enjoy dishing out personal abuse to the people you don't want in your tribe.

So the (pessimistic) estimate of the cost of Brexit is £60bn over 5 years.

Coincidentally that is roughly the amount we are paying (the weekly £250MM not the made up £350MM)

So for 2 years we pay that plus the existing £250MM and then for 3 years we pay the same as we are paying now. When were the Brexiters going to get that £250MM to spend how they see fit/on NHS ?

^^^ what out of breath says - definitely on the streets of Southampton people where insulted to be called racist and it just hardened their attitude. Being intimidated by threats of a global recession, punishment budget and a US President who never in a billion years would accept freedom of movement and a foreign Supreme court all helped us to win

Hang on, OOB are you thinking I was addressing you? If you didn't vote Brexit then I'm not. There was insuffient break between the quote and the rest of the post. That's why I wrote 'you brexiters' because it was addressed at brexiters in general.

I suspect you don't care though. You've much rather lose, have something to complain about and enjoy dishing out personal abuse to the people you don't want in your tribe.

That's ludicrous. And besides, I never dish out personal abuse. I criticise things people do, not people.

in the absence of knowing anything about what's sailing to our rescue - 'rational' isn't the word I'd use.

In fact to stretch the analogy a little too far..... right now we've climbed over the guard rail, have one foot hovering and now they're telling us that the only thing they're reasonably certain of is that when they said the Carpathia was moments away, actually they lied and in fact it's actually sailing away from us. In big writing on a bus.

But no, we're over the rail now, might as well jump now we've got this far, even though we could climb back on, grab a bucket and help shape our destiny that way.

@kerley when reality turns out to be better than these forecasts which imo will be pretty soon. The OBR already revised up 2016 forecasts and thats a period right in front of their noses.

'Sounds good to me, we all go down together, but I get the huge satisfaction of watching you all run around panicking and screaming that you don't want to die.

I'm sure they will be saying that, but there is a world of difference between a banker in London not getting quite the price he wanted when he sold his Mayfair flat and an unemployed steel worker in Wales queuing up at the food bank.

OBR already revised up 2016 forecasts and thats a period right in front of their noses.

which was based on Article 50 having already been declared.

@kerley when reality turns out to be better than these forecasts which imo will be pretty soon. The OBR already revised up 2016 forecasts and thats a period right in front of their noses.

Reality could of course be worse than the forecasts. It is still not looking as good as leavers would have imagined and discounting predictions as project fear will bite them although I can already hear the sound of "why didn't they tell us this"

To put that into context Labour left an ANNUAL budget deficit of £100bn - 'kin 'ell

5 years of Labour overspending £500bn, pessimistic Brexit "cost" estimate £60bn. That's a no-brainer of a choice for me given the OBR is just guessing in a vacuum.

Luckily we have had ten years of Tory rule to get the budget balanced again.

Oh, hang on a mo.....

[img] [/img]

given the OBR is just guessing in a vacuum

Oh aye? And you're not?

The £120bn total Remoaner clickbait headline comes from extra spending / investment.

Needed to try and counteract Brexit..

****'s sake Jam. Seriously.

There are an awful lot of negative waves on this thread.

Don't confuse negativity with fear

Very little to fear, opportunties and threats but nothing existential, far too much hyperbole from everyone on here.

Well Tony Blair does actually get it. He acknowledges that if we'd had a Referendum on the Lisbon Treaty we would possibly/probably have rejected it. Which is why we where never asked. EU style democracy at it's worst (from Telegragph)

"When we thought we were going to have to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, I thought that was a very, very open question as to whether we were going to win or not," he said.

"What it shows you (is) that if you put this decision to people like this in a referendum, I think at any point in time in the last 30 years you could have got that result."

which was based on Article 50 having already been declared.

OBR forecast for 2016 (the one that has just been revised) was, at the time of the budget, based on a [b]remain[/b] vote. That forecast has been revised up very slightly. The 2017 and 2018 forecasts have been revised down, but nothing like the treasury's Brexit scenarios.

None of the underlying assumptions made (and documented) by the OBR or the treasury were conditional on activating Article 50. The "shock scenario" was based on only a vote to leave as were all of the predictions that the four horsemen would be taking Santa's place this year.

You could try reading the various analyses instead of just parroting stuff.

The OBR ARE NOT guessing. They are using sophisticated models. However, like any model the results are only as good as the inputs. Visibility on some inputs is crap, hence results and ability to plan sensibly are affected negatively and badly

Are LWers now complaining that (1) austerity has been exposed as a myth and (2) that the government is continuing to borrow more and for longer in order to offset the weakness in the economy. How very odd?

(kimbers, the reduction in LA spending is a policy choice within rising total gov spending. Its is a re-balancing after a period when LA grew very quickly)

DrJ what that chart shows you is how incredibly difficult it is to reign in excessive spending. It takes a very long time and it is very painful.

(from Telegragph)

The Brexshit Bugle which lost all sense of perspective on this issue a long time ago

DrJ what that chart shows you is how incredibly difficult it is to reign in excessive spending. It takes a very long time and it is very painful.

No it reflects the fact that the Tories - whether by chance of by design - abandoned austerity almost at birth. We have one of the most expansionary fiscal policy stances in the developed world - far more so than in some socialist-run economies - which is the correct option when the corporate and household sectors are both deleveraging.

The graph shows that the Tories did an excellent job at bluffing the markets on austerity while boosting the economy through higher spending and on-going deficits. Before we give them too much credit, I think that this was more by luck than judgement!

So, brexiters, it is a wide world out there so what are we going to sell? What is the UKs USP? I am assuming that you know what the plan is? How do you intend to productively use the disenfranchised valley folk?

Are LWers now complaining that (1) austerity has been exposed as a myth and (2) that the government is continuing to borrow more and for longer in order to offset the weakness in the economy. How very odd?

No. Borrowing to invest is good. However it would have been better to borrow to invest when we hadn't just battered our economic outlook.

I have a feeling that Hammond knows the money needs borrowing, and being a remainer is using it as an excuse to borrow. Or perhaps he was always anti-austerity anyway? We don't really know what his views on austerity were - or perhaps we do?

Simple innit

1. Devalue to increase competitiveness
2. Err thats it
3. We import inflation, wages increase (or not), we lose competitiveness
4. Hello Turkeys, its Xmas time...

Cranberry sauce anyone?

What is the UKs USP?

We would have a moderately capable workforce if they spent less time posting bollocks on the internet.

[i]So the (pessimistic) estimate of the cost of Brexit is £60bn over 5 years. The £120bn total Remoaner clickbait headline comes from extra spending / investment.
To put that into context Labour left an ANNUAL budget deficit of £100bn - 'kin 'ell
5 years of Labour overspending £500bn, pessimistic Brexit "cost" estimate £60bn. That's a no-brainer of a choice for me given the OBR is just guessing in a vacuum.[/I]

Let's be clear though, whoever had been in power in 2008-2011 would've had the same problem (bankers eh?), I can live with you blaming Labour before that but based on the graph above ALL Govts of recent times have run a deficit.

And I've also got sympathy for Hammond, as he's inherited the Brexit decision and like all good finance folk he's getting the bad news out now so he can (hopefully) look better in the future.

The trouble is, is that the bad news is so bad, that even an optimist can't see past it - even if you took a positive view on everything, we'd still be in 5h1t creek, because we are already!

But no way can I agree with anyone who says "we voted out we must leave irrelevant of the harm it will do to the UK and its citizens", that is just madness. It's not something you'd do personally nor in business, facts/events/risks change, so you re-evaluate your decisions.

No. Borrowing to invest is good.

Only in attractive opportunities where ROIC > cost of borrowing. We got that wrong before. Allegro anyone?

However it would have been better to borrow to invest when we hadn't just battered our economic outlook.

We borrowed all the way through - one reason why the UK fared relatively well.

I have a feeling that Hammond knows the money needs borrowing

What does that mean?

Hammond knows he is a man surrounded by completely clueless idiots, who realises that as the only grown up in the room he is going to have to sort it out, as christ only knows what damage these clowns will do if he leaves them to their own devices

Obviously the absolutely bonkers foaming-at-the-moiuth right wing of the Tory party, and their insane xenophobic mates in the press hate him for preventing these morons driving our economy off a cliff

We import inflation, wages increase (or not), we lose competitiveness

Minford's argument is this could be partly mitigated by reducing tariffs on products currently prohibitively tariffed by EU due to protectionism.

on the graph above ALL Govts of recent times have run a deficit.

Bingo!!

Apart from bloody austerity labour for a few years - bastards! 😉

Mrmo I was asking this month's ago regardless of global access what do we actually have to sell? We have no significant manufacturing or technology that is competitive or owned by us. The things that got Nissan Hitachi etc to invest here are rapidly disappearing- the answer is to raise the working week to 50 hours and drop the minimum wage to £3 pet hour so we can compete with the far east. At some pint western countries have to accept that high pay blue collar work has gone as the people who are blue collar are not willing to pay £1000 for a basic TV or washing machine

Minford's argument is this could be partly mitigated by reducing tariffs on products currently prohibitively tariffed by EU due to protectionism.

Possibly, time will tell

I have a feeling that Hammond knows the money needs borrowing
What does that mean?

That he does not agree with Osborne's austerity policies, but doesn't want to say so directly.

That he does not agree with Osborne's austerity policies, but doesn't want to say so directly.

Hammond has no choice, he (metaphorically) has an over draft as big as his salary, and has to take a 5 to 10% payout from a pay packet of JAM (just about managing)

If this was an individual and you walked into the bank and asked to double your overdraft what do you reckon they would say?

Minford's argument is this could be partly mitigated by reducing tariffs on products currently prohibitively tariffed by EU due to protectionism.

Couple of examples, scrap tariffs on Steel imports, how long will Port Talbot survive?
Scrap tariffs on food production and how much of the UK agricultural industry will survive?

In both cases what do you do with the newly unemployed.

As a case study shall we look at British Steel, British Leyland, and Coal, all have done so well over the last few years and no one has yet found out what to do with the former towns and cities that depended on them.

As for equally well paid jobs, crane driver to call centre operative...

The Brexshit Bugle

Like

No it reflects the fact that the Tories - whether by chance of by design - abandoned austerity almost at birth.

Depending on how you think of austerity - an overall reduction of spending, or a reluctance to make poor peoples' lives better under the excuse of "we're all in this together" and other lies.

Hammond has no choice, he (metaphorically) has an over draft as big as his salary, and has to take a 5 to 10% payout from a pay packet of JAM (just about managing)

If this was an individual and you walked into the bank and asked to double your overdraft what do you reckon they would say?

Threads [i]passim[/i] on the Greek debt crisis include abundant explanations of why a national economy is not like a household economy.

Depending on how you think of austerity - an overall reduction of spending, or a reluctance to make poor peoples' lives better under the excuse of "we're all in this together" and other lies.

can we crowdfund this bus?

[img] [/img]

Couple of examples, scrap tariffs on Steel imports, how long will Port Talbot survive?
Scrap tariffs on food production and how much of the UK agricultural industry will survive?

If those are stupid choices, we dont have to make them!

Hammond says of Farage [url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38089702 ]Tell him not to hold his breath[/url]

He said: "When people look back in 100 or 200 years, 2016 will be seen as one of the great historic years - a year of big political revolution.

Oh thank god, I was scared it was going be 1000 year reich.

China dumps steel on world/EU.
Big trading block goes "NO!" and punches China steel subsidies in the kisser.
China says "this big group of like minded mercantiles have got their act together!
Steel production in EU continues.

China dumps steel on world/EU.
Little island that makes farting noises, makes farting noise.
Tariffs on Chinese steels rejected.
EU steel, or more specifically, farting island steel production goes pop!

China thinks, "if we continue subsiding stuff we can destroy most EU manufacturing. Woop! Have we finished downloading from Rolls Royce yet? Yes? Good, lets build some jet engines and then sell 'em back to Airbus! Noodles for everyone!"

Mrmo I was asking this month's ago regardless of global access what do we actually have to sell? We have no significant manufacturing or technology that is competitive or owned by us. The things that got Nissan Hitachi etc to invest here are rapidly disappearing- the answer is to raise the working week to 50 hours and drop the minimum wage to £3 pet hour so we can compete with the far east. At some pint western countries have to accept that high pay blue collar work has gone as the people who are blue collar are not willing to pay £1000 for a basic TV or washing machine

That's the point really - when will the UK become the new far east and that's what I don't understand about say Trump 'bringing jobs back to the USA' for instance and his withdrawal from the TPP how can you do that.

How does a UK or US worker on a minimum wage of $7.25 or £7.20 compete against a worker in say Vietnam or Taiwan or China etc. Is it a cyclical thing that at some point the UK will be so bereft that it will be cheaper to manufacture here than say Vietnam? Is the alternative that we each just make our own stuff for our own markets so that its proportionate but that seems bonkers as well i.e. a car in the UK or US would be priced not according to what it cost to make etch but what the worker can afford (i'm not sure i'm explaining myself well here!!).

There are some scary minimum wages (where there are any) out there for us to compete with.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_minimum_wages_by_country

jambalaya - Member
DrJ what that chart shows you is how incredibly difficult it is to reign in excessive spending. It takes a very long time and it is very painful.

It appears Brown managed it though. Interesting.

How does a UK or US worker on a minimum wage of $7.25 or £7.20 compete against a worker in say Vietnam or Taiwan or China etc

I suppose the idea is that you add a zillion dollars to the cost of the imported widget so it's cheaper to but a home-produced one. How that actually works out is another story. Obviously you can set your own tariffs how you want, but your exports still have to compete with Chinese ones.

It appears Brown managed it though. Interesting

Whereas Alistair Darling foolishly caused a worldwide financial crisis. Labour, eh?

It appears Brown managed it though. Interesting.

Now I'm no rabid spinning rightie but you surely realise that those positive bits are during an economic boom..?

That graph of deficit would map perfectly the global economy, I'm sure.

[img] [/img]

Well strictly speaking mol, Labour's surpluses resulted (at least in part) from what went on before them. That aside, the overall trend is obvious.

[How many times have the nasty Tories run surpluses in the modern period?]

It is true that in recent times, these were the only periods when we spent less than we earned. Whatever happened to Auntie Prudence.....we digress 😉

So the new economic policy would appear to be:

[img] [/img]

Just reading the ifs comments, looks good,I believe that the UK has already achieved the lowest wages in Western Europe bar portugal, on a par with Spain.

Will be interesting to see what happens at the next general election , quite how anyone buys the election with the usual tax bribes when things will be crap. I don't think anyone expects any positive progress this side of 2020!

And google ads, want to emigrate

I suppose the idea is that you add a zillion dollars to the cost of the imported widget so it's cheaper to but a home-produced one. How that actually works out is another story.

Would also need tariffs per type of item. i.e. not much point putting a heavy tariff on imported cars as we don't make any (unless we all want to drive around in Caterhams and Morgans - which thinking about it would be a rather good country)
In fact as we don't make most the popular items it would take years to get back to where we could.
All very complicated on whether it would work anyway, but Trump thinks it does so it must do...

Will be interesting to see what happens at the next general election , quite how anyone buys the election with the usual tax bribes when things will be crap.

Quite simple. Tories will shout "you can't trust Labour with the economy". That will be painted on buses, parroted by the Daily Heil etc, and the proles will duly tug their forelocks and turn out and vote for the Masters.

i.e. not much point putting a heavy tariff on imported cars as we don't make any (unless we all want to drive around in Caterhams and Morgans - which thinking about it would be a rather good country)

Horses and carts more likely. We will become a sort of rainy and cold Cuba, without the music, coffee, rum etc etc.

Just reading the ifs comments, looks good,I believe that the UK has already achieved the lowest wages in Western Europe bar portugal, on a par with Spain.

Oh well done us.

Will be interesting to see what happens at the next general election , quite how anyone buys the election with the usual tax bribes when things will be crap.

The Tories do have a somewhat huge electoral advantage here. Do you think many people are right now thinking that this would all be going so much better if only these two were running the show.....

[img] [/img]

The Tories do have a somewhat huge electoral advantage here. Do you think many people are right now thinking that this would all be going so much better if only these two were running the show....

Stranger things have happened!

[img] [/img]

2 smug millionaires in a gold plated skyscraper up there

meanwhile

heres what brexit means for those at the bottom
[img] [/img]

the rich are OK though

[img] [/img]

Kimbers - as I recall I may be in that 8th or 9th decile. Increases of that size per annum mean very little to me.

On the other hand a reduction of the same value at 2nd or 3rd decile - ouch. And their reduction is far greater than my increase.

Doesn't feel right really.

the very richest do see a modest drop, no wonder farige wants to move to the USA

5thElefant - Member
"Oh well done us."

Well done freedom of movement

You need to think that one through my large grey friend.

Graphs? We don't need graphs where we're going!

[i]"Experts, soothsayers, astrologers are all in much the same category."
- Jacob Rees-Mogg[/i]

You need to think that one through my large grey friend.

If wages are higher elsewhere, then freedom of movement would be a good thing that allows us to go to the higher wages. Unless of course they aren't which is possible.

But freedom of movement is part of the remedy not part of the problem.

Lack of jobs may be part of the problem. But if as you say we have vacancies then actually we want people to come.

Freedom of movement is, dear grey one, a two way street.

Did you stealth edit?

Grrr

That the British are crap at foreign languages and don't bother at school, whose fault is it when working class unemployed can't go work in Germany where there are vacancies?

It's noticeable that y here has been little comment from the Boris fox Davies Farage camp in respect to Hammonds statement - only the true inbreds like Rees Mogg making completely irrational noise.

That £350 million will cover the interest payment maybe

If wages are higher elsewhere, then freedom of movement would be a good thing that allows us to go to the higher wages. Unless of course they aren't which is possible.

But freedom of movement is part of the remedy not part of the problem.

Lack of jobs may be part of the problem. But if as you say we have vacancies then actually we want people to come.

Freedom of movement is, dear grey one, a two way street.

It is a very good thing. We could do with expanding it.

Did you stealth edit?

Grrr

I take it all back then. I thought you were speaking out against freedom of movement.

To be honest, full unfettered access to / membership of the single market and freedom of movement and I can accept most of the rest of Brexit. Grants for areas that voted to leave I'm just not bothered about.

Hopefully the fees we pay won't rise too much.

WRT the surplus seen under Gordon Brown.....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sale_of_UK_gold_reserves,_1999%E2%80%932002

Unfortunately a once in a lifetime event.

I take it all back then. I thought you were speaking out against freedom of movement.

Whereas Alistair Darling foolishly caused a worldwide financial crisis. Labour, eh?

Labour had been regulating the banks for 10 years. Regulator approved ludicrous acauisition price RBS paid for ABN inc their massive US subprime business. Labour totally failed to reign in spending post 2008 when the writing was very clearly on the wall. Brown/Darling encouraged healthy Lloyds to buy totally bust HBOS when it was worth less than zero. No Labour didn't cause the financial crises but they failed to regulate the banks correctiy, they rescued RBS at far too high a price and they didn't deign in spending during 2008-10. All this and Brown declared an end to "Boom and Bust" - priceless.

Taxes are about 200% on cars in Singapore and the roads are packed plenty of Lambos and Ferraris which cost £500k there. If car prices went up 50% we'd still buy them just less often and we'd repair them more. An increase in duty would put second hand car prices up. As an aside quite a few countries charge VAT / sales tax on second hand cars. So while it may only bring some jobs back to UK (build and repair) it would raise £££

I don't think [b]anyone[/b] expects any positive progress this side of 2020!

What about me 😉

welshfarmer - Member
WRT the surplus seen under Gordon Brown.....
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sale_of_UK_gold_reserves,_1999%E2%80%932002

Unfortunately a once in a lifetime event.

That wouldn't be shown as contributing to a surplus would it, because the funds received and the asset released would offset each other? Serious question - I am not a Treasury accountant.

Jamba - no, not even you. 😉 Wasn't it 10-20 years before it got better that you said? Feel free to prove me wrong.

Don't ye worry the little selves, it's never going to appen, thy leaders in that there London will bores us stupid (with your help) an before we know t'will be like vote never appened. An to make it clear Yorkshire don't want no soft Brexit or hard Brexit. It wants a full erect Brexit so we can stand tail n proud.

@igm by the way I am saving my senior's moment for another day 🙂

I was focusing on the word any ... I am confident there will be many positive signs by 2020 plus (sorry to be so repetitive) the eurozone debt crises which will shut up most of the Remainers. The real economic benefits will come later imho, long after I am retired

So Jambas, this coming EZ sovereign debt crisis - what does this mean for us and how does Brexshit affect the outcome?

I am confident there will be many positive signs by 2020 plus

And what about now?