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The other issue is that any current poll (however the question is framed) is based on current Brexit position for both major parties.
If Boris led Tories are forced in GE on a no deal ticket it would take loads of votes from Brexit. If Labour swing to remain (either from internal shadow cabinet pressure or as a response to Tory positioning) it will take substantial votes from Lib-Dems.
Couple this with fptp and Brexit will be lucky to get any seats. Lib-Dems likely to recover somewhat from post coalition position but nothing like the polling suggests
More and more commentators talking about a GE, including those on the right. Boris forces a GE when he can’t get a deal through Europe and no deal through Parly
Too many people hate him for him to win an election. The tories will still need remain tories to win the election, and I see them disappearing off to the liberal democrats.
The plan I see is for him to become leader and then simply do nothing up to October 31st. Then the infiltrated membership of the tory party will view it as job done.
All this is opinion of course, as this country is so ****ed up at the moment, anything can happen.
Recent polling suggests a Boris-led Tory party will gain a majority, eating the Brexit Party. Of all the potential PMs, he was the only one predicted to win that majority.
I doubt the polls will remain as they are. Labour and the tories will still remain the two largest parties in both vote share and number of seats. The decider will be who loses least to brexit and the lib dems. The tories look like they'll lose a lot to brexit, labour are so far limiting their losses to them. The danger for labour is their vote being split between labour and lib dems allowing the tories/brexit to win seats where before they wouldn't have had a chance. As always, keeping the tories/brexit away from power is going to require tactical voting between labour, lib dem and green voters. If they do that, a labour led coalition is possible and a new referendum is on the way, if not then no deal is guaranteed.
Too many people hate him for him to win an election.
I don't think that's true, not amongst tory and prospective tory voters.
Byelection in brecon and Radnorshire after the tory MP was convicted of fraud. Hopefully the Lib dems get it and the Converatives will be down to a working majority of 3.
you could stick a blue rosette on a baboons arse and it’d get elected
Looks like that's about to happen...
It would be nice to see this updated
scotroutes
Member
Recent polling suggests a Boris-led Tory party will gain a majority, eating the Brexit Party. Of all the potential PMs, he was the only one predicted to win that majority.
polling that was debunked as very questionable , not least because it was published by Johnsons very own fanzine, the Torygraph!
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1138770283207319553
BUT a GE before Johnson has to admit that he has no idea how to make Brexit work would make more sense for Johnson, he knows that the Leavers are rather gullible to hi schtick, but once hes failed utterly to deliver his unicorn fantasies he'll be in trouble
If a GE election does actually happen, and campaigns start to shift attention away from Brexit and the NHS under the Brexit party is tackled you will see completely different results.
There are other things than Brexit that people will vote on.
If there is a snap election just a few weeks before we are due to crash out, Brexit policy will be everything. Another election will be along again before we know it soon after that anyway. Probably within a year. If we've left by the time that happens, then what the hell we do next as regards Brexit will still be everything. If instead we've cancelled Brexit, well only then is there any chance that it won't be one of the key motivators for voters, and parties can concentrate on everything else that we should be doing now.
Anyway… tariffs…
https://twitter.com/weyandsabine/status/1142381392841596929?s=21
yet the labour party still dont get it
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-poll-reveals-vast-majority-16902164?
Labour have a conflict in their party, as do the tories. Labour have a spineless leader, as do the tories. I'm not sure which party will implode first.
There was one of Corbyns apparatchiks on Pienaar's Politics yesterday. It was painful listening to the convoluted nonsense he was waffling on about with regards to going back to Brussels and renegotiating a 'jobs first Brexit'
Then they had Liz Truss on detailing Borises Brexit strategy. It was painful listening to the convoluted nonsense she was waffling on about with regards to going back to Brussels and renegotiating a 'cake and eat it Brexit'.
They're both treating us like idiots by proposing policies that are entirely unicorn-based and will implode on the first contact with reality.
Brexit policy will be everything.
No it won't. You may be obsessed with it, but there are huge numbers of people who don't give a shit about it and care more about day to day issues like schools having enough money and being able to get a GP appointment. At best they actually see brexit as a distraction from these other issues and at worst they see it - membership of the EU and failure to leave that is - as complicit. They may be wrong, which they are, but it doesn't change the fact that the next election will not be fought on brexit alone.
Brexit policy will be everything.
dazh Subscriber
No it won’t.
The recent polls that put TBP way ahead of the tories suggest otherwise. Politics is all about Brexit at the moment.
The tory membership are about to vote for someone to be their leader that offers little apart from a (a No Deal Brexit) single issue and a possible defeat for TBP and to a lesser degreee Jeremys Labour party. And lets not forget that Bojo was unelectable 3 years ago and fled the leadership race.
A reminder that the Brexit "Party" is no such thing, and is just the latest means for transforming the Conservative Party into the new UKIP…
https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/1143112747992977408?s=21
Politics is all about Brexit at the moment.
And if we were due to fall out of the EU with no deal a few weeks after a snap election, then Brexit policy will be even more keenly scrutinised by voters than it is now. There will be no room for hiding behind constructive ambiguity.
Just to point out that labour policy although still evolving is for a second ref on any deal. This is agreed by corbyn
With a Remain option? Even after a general election that results in a Labour government?
Politics is all about Brexit at the moment
And even if you think it isn't - there is probably a rude awakening on the horizon.
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1143122412780892160
Subscriber
With a Remain option? Even after a general election that results in a Labour government?
Yes
I did participate in this thread a while back, but I'm not aware of recent posts, so sorry if this has been covered, but with Boris potentially becoming Prime Minister & threatening to take us out of Europe without a deal if necessary I'm wondering where this leaves Northern Ireland.
The Power Sharing Executive has been down for a couple of years, ostensibly as Sinn Fein won't work with Arleene Foster (DUP) who doesn't seem bothered by this and is staying put; she's now playing power politics with Brexit. During this time there have been some alarming developments in Northern Ireland including bombings and the murder of Lyra McKee; dissident republicanism seems to be making a re-appearance.
Presumably if we leave the EU without a deal, a hard border in NI becomes inevitable cutting off the country and isolating it from Ireland; the DUP probably aren't bothered about this but I can't imagine Sinn Fein being too please along with the dissident republicans.
Boris might feel that he's best buddies with Donald Trump and consequently could negotiate a favourable trade deal with the US but I assume that he'd need the support of the House of Representatives whose Speaker (if I recall correctly), Nancy Pelosi has told the UK (during a trip to Ireland) to forget a trade deal if the Good Friday Agreement is threatened, so there's the potential for renewed troubles in Northern Ireland & no deals with either the EU or US.
The Tories seem to be colluding in this madness to stay in power with the (fickle) support of the DUP.
Assuming that I haven't gotten my facts wrong (perfectly possible), is this a realistic possibility? It doesn't feel terribly encouraging.
Yes
Thanks for clearing that up TJ.
🤡
It doesn’t feel terribly encouraging.
Not breaking up North/South cooperation is essential to get a trade deal with either the EU or the USA. There may well be measures that could have been agreed to which could ensure this, and still let us Leave the EU… but that kind of Brexit has been off the cards for over two years now… and, no, not because of anything said or done by EU officials or heads of state… but by the choices made by our PM and leader of the opposition.
And even if you think it isn’t – there is probably a rude awakening on the horizon.
And there we go. He knows the damage ahead, but feels it can't be stopped, because of 2016. At one point he was saying that another vote may have to occur. No chance of sticking to that if you want to be the leader of the party that used to be the Conservative Party.
There's "respect democracy" in action. You asked for it, so let's slash the seats and burn the place down. They all know it will be a disaster but are still pushing it.
Useless, useless, useless Tw*nts.
Assuming that I haven’t gotten my facts wrong (perfectly possible), is this a realistic possibility? It doesn’t feel terribly encouraging.
The Good Friday Elephant In The Room Agreement aside, it's written into the Withdrawal Agreement that there cannot be a hard border in Northern Ireland (and that's legally binding unless it subsequently gets amended). It's just one more paradoxical impossibility in the gamut of brexit unicorns.
Given that the majority in the north voted to remain in the EU I’m not sure a hard brexit and the resulting chaos in the economy and agriculture will aid DUP in the long run and may accelerate a united Ireland. I think they’ve been expecting the EU to blink first - they’re not exactly the sharpest tools.
Just to point out that labour policy although still evolving is for a second ref on any deal. This is agreed by corbyn
My policy is to go vegan one day to save the environment and all the animals and all that. Honestly. I really mean it. I really will get around to it at some point...
Could you just pass me that steak bake......
That Leave.EU tweet is absolutely astonishing. They're openly boasting that they've stuffed tens of thousands of brexies into the party membership in order to rig the vote. How is that even legal?
How does this sit with your average leaver's supposed desire for democracy? Is this what they voted for?
Not breaking up North/South cooperation is essential to get a trade deal with either the EU or the USA.
Tearing up a legally binding international treaty (which the Good Friday Agreement is) would leave us a North Korea style pariah state who nobody would do business with, as we simply could no longer be trusted to honour any treaties we signed.
International law is there for a reason. You can't just rip up the bits of it you don't like on the say so of your hardline nutters
I think TJ should be given the mission of getting out there and telling Labour MPs that they've spent 3 years pushing against an open door, and that Jeremy already supports the position that they're still repeatingly calling for him to move to…
https://twitter.com/michael_wildbbc/status/1143160894056280064?s=21
Labour’s Brexit policy? No mention of a referendum.....
https://labour.org.uk/issues/labours-plan-brexit/
I think this thread could do with a healthy dose of Clegg bashing… to balance things up a bit… get stuck in…
https://twitter.com/peterjukes/status/1143097039829553152?s=21
Clegg bashing you say? Like Nick Cohen in yesterdays Observer
Sapped by Brexit, it’s little wonder we dream of doing a Nick Clegg
Clegg said Brexit was a battle that had to be won, then fled the field as the struggle began.
Corbyn in PMQ now asking about the disaster of crashing out with No Deal. Perhaps he gets it...
How is that even legal?
Because they are private organisations which can choose their membership (lawsuits not withstanding). Same way that Labour had a bunch of right wingers join a while back.
In theory the tories probably should be able to boot some of them out if they are shown to be supporting another party but lot of hassle to get to.
.
Same way that Labour had a bunch of right wingers join a while back
Derek Hatton?
Nothing new on Newsnight then… same twaddle from Johnson and his team as they've been pedalling for years… the EU won't damage themselves by making our exit from the Single Market and Customs Union change how we trade with them.
Scary stuff from Bernard jenkin on last nights newsnight. Emily maitlis probably felt like Sharon Tate looking at that glassy eyed fanaticism
The question she should have asked him (skipping over the fact that it is imaginary money he's suggesting we spend propping up all the effected industries)…
"If our response to other countries applying their WTO tariffs and schedules to us, which they are obliged to do, is to heavily increase state subsidies for farming, manufacturing and other exporting industries, then, under WTO 'rules', the other countries are allowed to take reciprocal steps to further disadvantage our exporters. A trade war would soon be under way. As a supposed supporter of free trade, why would you act so as to trigger this?"
Boris peddling the same old unicorns this morning. That we'll be withholding the divorce payment and then he'll go back and renegotiate the removal of the backstop. Blah, blah, blah...
They must be shaking their heads in disbelief in Brussels
Don't waste the extension?
The Good Friday Elephant In The Room Agreement aside, it’s written into the Withdrawal Agreement that there cannot be a hard border in Northern Ireland (and that’s legally binding unless it subsequently gets amended).
The Good Friday Elephant In The Room Agreement aside, it’s written into the Withdrawal Agreement that there cannot be a hard border in Northern Ireland (and that’s legally binding unless it subsequently gets amended).
Sorry for my naivete but are we saying that, legally, we can't leave the EU without a deal as doing so would place a hard border in Northern Ireland (I'm assuming, but don't know, that the EU wouldn't countenance a non-secured, open boarder between itself & a non-EU country)?
If this is the case, is anyone challenging the no-dealers with this (I'm afraid that I'm sick to the back teeth with brexit politics & the tory party & tend to turn over when they're on)?
It's not just the Good Friday Agreement, the EU is very keen to have North/South cooperation protected in any agreement they have with us. For obvious reasons.
https://twitter.com/thatginamiller/status/1141686084054786048?s=21
Yes, and yes, but the problem with modern politics is none of that seems to matter. Power on this topic has been handed to the people who have absolutely the least idea what any of the implications are. Good job, Dave.
It might not matter when it comes to picking our leaders… but it does matter to the EU… and it'll still matter to them after we have left. If we want a relationship of any kind with the whole of the continent, then we can't just screw Ireland, even if enough Brits support us doing so.
If this is the case, is anyone challenging the no-dealers with this (I’m afraid that I’m sick to the back teeth with brexit politics & the tory party & tend to turn over when they’re on)?
This is a really interesting take on why they get away with it.
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1143464297428914182