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[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

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Come on Phil, its only money. Stop undermining the will of the people. Besides, who can put a price on Sovereignty?

We might be poorer but we are fffffrrrrrreeeeeeeeeeeeeeee


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 9:53 am
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But a simple understanding of the the single market and what it involves can only lead to one conclusion.

Is that conclusion that there are countries in the single market that are not in the EU?
Therefore a vote to leave the EU may or may not be also seen as a vote to leave the Single Market, depending on what it is you are after?

And what about the customs union? Are you going to claim clarity about what we voted for there?

The idea that the vote somehow gives us one clear ahead is bogus. Only one vote was cast… to leave the EU.


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 9:54 am
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Hammond is the only member of the present government that doesn't come across as completely and utterly unhinged. Its almost as if he's engaged with actual reality, rather than a huge steaming pile of flag-waving, ideological, cloud-cuckooland bullshit

They'll be getting rid of him pretty sharpish, I'm sure


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 9:56 am
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Besides, who can put a price on Sovereignty?

Scottish government circa 1706?


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 9:59 am
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The problem is still that the tories have painted themselves into a corner setting a lot of requirements or restrictions without bothering to negotiate. Either they'll have to admit they screwed up or they'll have to potentially take actions harmful to the country to save face. I'm guessing they'll do the latter; force the entire UK to fall on its collective sword rather than say "ooops".

BTW, what are the government blithering on about with regards to "getting control of the UK's borders" given two things.

1, The EU says it doesn't give access to the single market without free movement of labour. Even the Swiss give EU nationals up to a year to find a job without too much drama.
2, The UK is the only EU country (that I know of) with proper border controls now. Given #1 (obviously the Brexiteers are expecting the EU to buckle on that), how much more control could the UK reasonably have?


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 10:01 am
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how much more control could the UK reasonably have?
Given Theresa May's abject failure to meet her party's manifesto pledges on migration during her time as Home Secretary, not much.


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 10:10 am
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May has played this perfectly so far. Give EU a simple hard Brexit or full access choice. By middle
of next year the EU is going to be in full on crises mode with significant economic dip. They can make their choice thereafter.

As I posted in the Scotish thread Ireland has out together an emergency fund to help
farmers in the wake of the £/€ move and has called a crises summit warning of the economic damage to Ireland of Brexit. Also as noted elsewhere here and widely reported in the press the "architect" of the euro says it cannot survive in it's current form (ie in terms of members, regulation, structure) and that it was doomed from the moment Greece was "bailed out" in 2008


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 10:20 am
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how much more control could the UK reasonably have?

There are 268,000 EU citizens coming to this country every year through our "uncontrolled border".

Meanwhile our carefully controlled border for non-EU migrants lets in 282,000.

([url= https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-net-migration-statistics ]Sauce[/url])


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 10:23 am
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And why is all that good for the UK Jambalaya?


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 10:25 am
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May has played this perfectly so far.
😯


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 10:25 am
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May has played this perfectly so far. Give EU a simple hard Brexit or full access choice.

Do you think that's her goal jamba? Full access without freedom of movement, or bust. If so then why not just say that?


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 10:25 am
 br
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[i]Hammond is the only member of the present government that doesn't come across as completely and utterly unhinged. Its almost as if he's engaged with actual reality, rather than a huge steaming pile of flag-waving, ideological, cloud-cuckooland bullshit[/i]

It's probably because he's one of the few with an actual background in business, and at a senior (and owner) level.

Also he's charged with keeping the countries' economy out of disarray, so anything that could cause uncertainty is a problem.


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 10:36 am
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May has played this perfectly so far. Give EU a simple hard Brexit or full access choice.

except May is now considering paying billions into the EU budget to keep passporting in the city

and hard brexit is ****g madness, look what fear of it is doing to the £

trade is interconnected, the concept of a low currency being good for exports works if its all made here, but thats not the case at all- the world has changed, just another example of brexiteers living in the past....

and add to that that WTO tarrifs could be applied 5 times on some items that we make !!
[img] [/img]


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 10:53 am
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There is zero chance of access to the single market without freedom of movement.

May is playing to her support - not the good of the country.


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 10:58 am
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Full access without freedom of movement, or bust. If so then why not just say that?
Didn't you get the memo from Priti Patel?

[i]“If I were to sit down and play poker with you this morning, I’m not going to show you my cards before we even start playing the game,” she told BBC1’s Andrew Marr Show.[/i]

Hammond is probably not wearing his fedora and dark glasses to cabinet meetings.


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 11:06 am
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“If I were to sit down and play poker with you this morning,"

Surely Russian Roulette would have made a better analogy

[img] [/img]


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 11:14 am
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UK is not North Korea, what cards are they hiding?


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 11:15 am
 br
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I watched Question Time (from earlier in the week) last night and one thing (about Brexit) really struck me.

They were all talking about how it's hard to negotiate when you're having to talk in public about options etc, which is correct. But few people seem to understand that once we trigger Article 50 that it isn't really a negotiation, as on one side we've the UK wanting what is best for the UK and on the other side we've 27 countries plus EU 'management' wanting what's best for EACH.

All that will occur is 24 months of talking (and frustration) and the only agreements will be where the UK just 'bends' over. Pretty much nothing will be agreed and we'll have had 2 years worth of economic chaos followed by a period downturn.

Even Jamba realises that there'll be a downturn, and do I remember even him thinking it'll be a minimum of 5 years?


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 11:17 am
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UK is not North Korea, what cards are they hiding?

Tesco Clubcard. Got enough points to stock up on emergency Marmite. Don't want to lose that one.


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 11:18 am
 MSP
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It doesn't surprise me that tories think that they are just playing a game, they are giving far greater importance to internal politics and idiotic soundbites than they are to the actual outcome for the country.

May was praise for putting the 3 buffoons in charge of brexit, as if tory infighting was more important than the country.

There are incredibly important negotiations to go ahead, it isn't a game of poker, the options are clear to everyone, playing some stupid bluff (that their EU counterparts can see coming a mile off) because they think its a game and do not realise the importance is going to **** the nation for generations.


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 11:21 am
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Graham hard Brexit is my preferred option, clean simple just get on with it. We will donexcellently in such a scenario and still buy & sell plenty with Europe. People forget how low WTO tariffs are on most goods

Non EU migrants are predominantly highly paid / skilled business people and students paying premium Uni fees.

cchris Europe imploding will not be good for us but it means we must break our link / straightjacket with them before its too late. We must focus globally

No one here will be surprised to hear that I think Hammond is a lightweight, one of the weakest Ministers. We'll see what he's got in the Autumn statement


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 11:21 am
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Kimbers - very interesting graphic. It shows how companies are using each other across the EU to add value. If we had to heat treat our own injectors we'd have to set up a plant to do it, and somehow get the skills and experience, which would divert money away from manufacturing the injectors to begin with. Likewise the German company.

It's no different to companies specialising within a country - it allows each company to be better at the thing in which they specialise. The huge benefit of free trade within the EU is it allows us to function *in business terms* as one very large country. So that the world isn't dominated by the other large >500m people countries who can mobilies huge economies of scale and specialisations, when a country of 70m could not.

Effectively in business terms we're seceding from a large country to make a much smaller one. Not that different to Scotland leaving the UK. Which ISTR Jamba was against?


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 11:24 am
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What the 2 years of negotiations will look like is those 3 bell ends going to Brussels with a list of 'demands', to be told quite clearly to * off, scuttling back, then going back to Brussels with a list of 'demands', to be told quite clearly to * off, scuttling back, then going back to Brussels with a list of 'demands', to be told quite clearly to * off, scuttling back, then going back to Brussels with a list of 'demands', to be told quite clearly to * off, scuttling back, then going back to Brussels with a list of 'demands', to be told quite clearly to * off, scuttling back, then going back to Brussels with a list of 'demands', to be told quite clearly to * off, scuttling back, then going back to Brussels with a list of 'demands', to be told quite clearly to * off, scuttling back, then going back to Brussels with a list of 'demands', to be told quite clearly to * off, scuttling back, then going back to Brussels with a list of 'demands', to be told quite clearly to * off, scuttling back, then going back to Brussels with a list of 'demands', to be told quite clearly to * off, scuttling back, then going back to Brussels with a list of 'demands', to be told quite clearly to * off, scuttling back, then going back to Brussels with a list of 'demands', to be told quite clearly to * off, scuttling back, then going back to Brussels with a list of 'demands', to be told quite clearly to * off, scuttling back, then going back to Brussels with a list of 'demands', to be told quite clearly to * off, scuttling back, then going back to Brussels with a list of 'demands', to be told quite clearly to * off, scuttling back, then going back to Brussels with a list of 'demands', to be told quite clearly to * off, scuttling back, then going back to Brussels with a list of 'demands', to be told quite clearly to * off, scuttling back, then going back to Brussels with a list of 'demands', to be told quite clearly to * off, scuttling back, then the EU says "if you want access to the single market, here's the deal. Take it or ****ing leave it!"

Christ only knows what our economy will look like by that point


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 11:27 am
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What does freedom of movement mean?
Does it mean total access to our benefit and health system or just freedom to work?


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 11:27 am
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I'd imagine the latter, but the former requires some thought. Does the EU have anything to say on the matter?


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 11:31 am
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Does it mean total access to our benefit and health system or just freedom to work?

Employing people but not giving the access to healthcare is idiotic

especially the NHS? is the countries biggest employer of immigrants

and they currently put in more than they take out


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 11:34 am
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binners - Member

...Christ only knows what our economy will look like by that point

the point is, you've missed the point.

The Daily Mail, The Sun, etc. don't care what happens. Whatever happens they can spin it as either:

A)'johnny foreigner still telling us what to do'

or B) 'our brilliant negotiators have conquered Europe!' - after they finally cobble together some half-arsed unworkable trade deal.

there is no outcome that can't be turned in an opportunity to drum up nationalistic xenophobia - Which is what the important people really want.


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 11:36 am
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Graham hard Brexit is my preferred option, clean simple just get on with it. We will donexcellently in such a scenario and still buy & sell plenty with Europe. People forget how low WTO tariffs are on most goods

Non EU migrants are predominantly highly paid / skilled business people and students paying premium Uni fees.


So deal a crippling blow to both the UK and the biggest economy in the world and our biggest trading partner.

The UK needs a broad range of immigration both long and short term. In fact it was working very well up until now...


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 11:38 am
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Graham hard Brexit is my preferred option, clean simple just get on with it. We will donexcellently in such a scenario and still buy & sell plenty with Europe. People forget how low WTO tariffs are on most goods

dont be ridiculous, look what economic analysis shows...

One can say, unequivocally, that the UK could not survive as a trading nation by relying on the WTO Option. It would be an unmitigated disaster, and no responsible government would allow it. If, on the other hand, the official Leave campaign adopts it, the Remain side will be counting its blessings.

of course thats just from some sort of ultra biased pro euro economists, right?

well actually........

http://leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=128


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 11:47 am
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[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-37676186 ]Hooray for taking back control[/url]

Is this the kind of thing we'll get to do more of?


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 11:52 am
 br
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As alluded to on the last page, "Hard Brexit" is the only actual choice available to us. No other option will occur from the negotiations.

And any deviation from this will cost loads of money, in fact I reckon we'll end up in 5 years time actually paying more into the EU than we do now. Any Brexiters prepared to say otherwise?


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 12:07 pm
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[url= http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/16/euro-house-of-cards-to-collapse-warns-ecb-prophet/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_iosshare_AmwnfslT2YSY ]Have a read of this[/url]

Now it's not good news all that, wether we are in or out, the Euro collapsing would cause a hell of a problem for us, however it will still be better if politically we're not tied to what's about to happen over there.


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 12:13 pm
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Oh dear

Number 10: PM "has full confidence" in Chancellor,

And

"respects the independence of the bank of england" and is "clear in her support" of Carney


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 12:15 pm
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Non EU migrants are predominantly highly paid / skilled business people and students paying premium Uni fees.

41% of EU migrants are coming for a definite job, but only 21% of non-EU migrants are.

[img] [/img]

32% of migrants from the EEA have a degree (compared to around 21% of UK natives).

69% of migrant workers from EU14 countries are in highly skilled jobs.

[img] [/img]

(Sauces: [url= https://fullfact.org/immigration/eu-migration-and-uk/ ]1[/url], [url= https://infacts.org/briefings/the-inflow-european-migration-into-britain/ ]2[/url], [url= https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/364 ]3[/url])


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 12:15 pm
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41% of EU migrants are coming for a definite job, but only 21% of non-EU migrants are

alternatively 31% of EU migrants are coming to find a job but don't have one lined up, but only 8% of non-EU migrants are chancing their luck?

etc


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 12:19 pm
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however it will still be better if politically we're not tied to what's about to happen over there.

Want to give 3 good reasons?


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 12:23 pm
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alternatively 31% of EU migrants are coming to find a job but don't have one lined up

What's wrong with that? Good luck to them.

[url= http://centreforentrepreneurs.org/cfe-releases/migrants-behind-one-in-seven-uk-companies/ ]17.2% of migrants set up their own business[/url] (thus creating jobs!), compared to just 10.4% of UK natives.


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 12:27 pm
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indeed
http://www.bizstats.co.uk/ltd/brexit-drinks-limited-10252467/


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 12:45 pm
 DrJ
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Graham hard Brexit is my preferred option, clean simple just get on with it. We will donexcellently in such a scenario and still buy & sell plenty with Europe.

A lady elephant is walking through the forest when an ant sees her and says
"Hmmm, I'm gonna get me a piece of that ass".
He climbs up the elephant's back leg and gets to work with his ant-sized willy. At that moment a coconut falls off a tree and hits the elephant on the head.
"Ouch!" says the elephant.
"Yeah, baby, suffer!!" shouts the ant.


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 12:53 pm
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alternatively 31% of EU migrants are coming to find a job but don't have one lined up, but only 8% of non-EU migrants are chancing their luck?

Anecdotally I know quite a few British people in Luxembourg here "trying their luck" and I know (via friends, relatives etc) of a number in France too. I'd be willing to bet lots of people move within Europe to chase a lifestyle/dream etc.


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 12:53 pm
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Can anyone point me to where May has confirmed hard brexshit? All I can see is that she has stated that the distinction between hard and soft is a false one.

Jambas why are still ignoring the fact that EU migrants contribute more than non-EU ones. There is no logic to your argument in favour of prioritising non EU migranta unless this is another idea to make us poorer


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 1:28 pm
 br
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[i]Can anyone point me to where May has confirmed hard brexshit? All I can see is that she has stated that the distinction between hard and soft is a false one. [/i]

Therefore there is only ONE option, out.


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 1:45 pm
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that's Tusks view


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 2:55 pm
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[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37677973 ]mad as a bag of ferrets[/url]


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 2:56 pm
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mikewsmith - Member
however it will still be better if politically we're not tied to what's about to happen over there.

Want to give 3 good reasons?

Don't know about three but one will do for me, pray it doesn't happen any time soon, but when it happens, if we are still tied politically then we as taxpayers will inevitably be part of the fallout. I've no doubt we'll still have to end up contributing to the Eu budget if only to ensure the city boys get their money passport and God knows our stupid ass banks are leveraged up to their asses in Euro debt, but picture the situation and nobody really wants to contemplate a North South split, but Italy, Greece and to a certain extend Spain are pretty much ****ed, France isn't exactly in good shape either, where do you think they will turn for help?

Better we're out of it now, the longer we stay, the greater our exposure imv

So 3 good reasons Greece, Italy, Spain, will they do?


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 3:01 pm
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as a member we had fully collateralised support for any funding

outside we dont (IMF etc)


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 3:09 pm
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861 people surveyed - wow!


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 3:20 pm
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Outside, would we really need collateralised support of any further exposure?

We're already part of the IMF in or out of the EU,

We have exposure to the ECB, not big but 55+ million of the banks paid up capital (Germany 1.9+ billion)

Will we continue to be part of the ECB, I have no idea, just another bit that has to be unravelled I guess, but I ask you, read the article do you really want to stay a part of all that?


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 3:23 pm
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861 people surveyed - wow!

In an online poll. So basically about as scientific as the polls we have on here about what socks to wear. 😀

(I completely agree that the gov [i]should[/i] set out its strategy & goals and that parliament [i]should[/i] debate them - but that poll is meaningless)


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 3:24 pm
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read the article do you really want to stay a part of all that?

oh were we in the € ?

so the plan is to destabilise and weaken our economy for 2 years of tawdry and ultimately futile negotiations just before an apparently impending financial crash

genius !


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 3:34 pm
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Sorry Ross I don't understand...

The BSers used to peddle the lie that as members of the EU we had financial liabilities towards an EZ bailout. This is totally untrue both in theory, law and precedent (eg the last Greek support)

Any exposure via the IMF is totally independent of our EU status

...but I appreciate that it was in the BSers interests to muddy the waters here


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 3:38 pm
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And that's it.
The force of the morons has gotten to the intellectuals amongst us and decided to pull out of the UK financial marketplace here in the U.K. and move to Frankfurt. 2 very large Banks are off, a loss of 4000 jobs here.

Morons.


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 3:45 pm
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And any deviation from this will cost loads of money, in fact I reckon we'll end up in 5 years time actually paying more into the EU than we do now. Any Brexiters prepared to say otherwise?

Yup. We'll pay zero or an absolute fraction of what we paid before worst case. Personally I will be disappointed if we pay anything other than zero.

Graham those stats make perfect sense as it difficult for a non-EU person to get a visa to come here and look for work. As you can see between Education and joining someone (i.e. husband/wife) that's 2/3rds of non-EU migrants.

TMH we've done the secured debt discussion before, secured with worthless IOUs. read a Bloomberg piece today about cash outflows from Italy to Germany.

Why the accelerating outflows from Italy? One explanation is that people are worried about the state of the country's banks, which are suffering the consequences of bad lending, poor governance and a new euro-area oversight system that makes rescues difficult. Another is political: Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has staked his fate on a December government-reform referendum that, if it goes against him, [b]could strengthen opponents who want to force a vote on whether Italy should remain in the EU[/b]. In that context, it's not surprising that some depositors prefer not to hold Italian euros, given the chance that they might eventually be converted into lira.

Either way, the capital flight doesn’t speak well of confidence in the European project -- something EU leaders will have to keep in mind as they negotiate the terms of Britain's exit.

lf we where in the EU when euro / Greece / Portugal / Italy / Spain blew as an absolute minimum our budget contribution would go through the roof as part of the calculation is relative economic strength. Then we'd have the whole vested interest argument from the EU that we should fund a bailout and the possibility (likelihood ?) of further tax harmonisation as the EU has to pay the bills somehow.

The less dependent we are on Europe the better, if that comes about as part of an EU exit then so be it


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 3:50 pm
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2 very large Banks are off, a loss of 4000 jobs here.

Who exactly Bikebouy ?

Commerzbank has laid off 20% of it's worldwide workforce (tiny bank only 8000 anyway)
Deutsche is in freefall, 1000's of layoff's globally and no end in sight

Job losses in finance have been in the 200,000 (?) + range over last 8 years, Brexit is irrelevant. Changes in global regulation, reduced profitability, de-risking away from London centric Investment Banking and advisory

Brexit is a convenient excuse. The writing has been on the wall since 2009


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 3:53 pm
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TMH we've done the secured debt discussion before, secured with worthless IOUs. read a Bloomberg piece today about cash outflows from Italy to Germany.

Yes and you were wrong then and you are now (secured with worthless IOUs). The Bloomberg piece is a separate issue so I wont fall into the trap of lazy association.

We decided to provide emergency funding for Greece last time. [b]This was fully collateralised and paid back IN FULL. Under EU law we have no financial liability towards the EZ.[/b] That has been re-confirmed recently. So it is important to cease pretending otherwise.

It would be helpful if people did not perpetuate lies in this area.


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 3:55 pm
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If you knew anything about the Banking industry you'd know who.

We're restressing June's submission based on 12% downturn on PD/LGD Risk loss rates.

Let's hope you can all pay your mortgage chaps.


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 3:56 pm
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except May is now considering paying billions into the EU budget to keep passporting in the city

"considering" such a convenient journalistic word. I wrote to my MP and told her if the City wants passporting they should pay for it in it's entirety via a new bank levy. As I posted before the UK banks have been scaling back their European operations including selling them and/or closing them down as they make no money. Passporting is a bit of a red herring IMO.


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 3:56 pm
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Let's hope you can all pay your mortgage chaps.

When imported inflation feeds though (2017) and the BoE is forced to stop stealing off savers and normalise rates, the real exposures to the housing market will become very evident. It will be v unpleasant in the housing mkt at that point - the BoE did the numbers before so they will try to delay the inevitable.

Passporting is a bit of a red herring IMO.

😯


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 4:02 pm
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As I posted before the UK banks have been scaling back their European operations including selling them and/or closing them down as they make no money

that's a pretty large stretch... lots of the banks (assuming we're not talking about the branch of the Halifax in the high street) in the UK are UK arms of European banks or those from further afield. They are more likely to close their London arms than they are to shut down, say, Paris or Frankfurt. So in reality, with the end of the "passport" the UK banking sector is more likely at risk than those in Europe.


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 4:03 pm
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Graham those stats make perfect sense as it difficult for a non-EU person to get a visa to come here and look for work.

It's not going to get any easier in the post-Brexit immigration clampdown is it?

As you can see between Education and joining someone (i.e. husband/wife) that's 2/3rds of non-EU migrants.

And since 32% of the EEA migrants already have a degree, there is a quite a lot less in the "study" category.


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 4:06 pm
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And.. this last week where Nissan are due to move car production back into Europe.

I said it would happen, BMW will be next.

[url= http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/may-offers-nissan-deal-on-driverless-cars-to-soften-brexit-blow-765kmrhmv ]Link to The Times, Nissan to quit Wearside[/url]


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 4:45 pm
 igm
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It does seem like Brexit is a religious belief for some people. There is only one true way, yes you'll be poorer in the short term but the afterlife will be prosperous. Blind obedience is required. Logic, facts and reason are not welcome.

And the Spanish Inquisition is well and truly expected.


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 5:01 pm
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igm - Member
It does seem like Brexit is a religious belief for some people. There is only one true way, yes you'll be poorer in the short term but the afterlife will be prosperous. Blind obedience is required. Logic, facts and reason are not welcome.

treasonous igm, treasonus
to the tower with you


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 5:03 pm
 igm
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I've already accepted my fate Kimbers.

It's worse than mere treason - I'm a Scot living in England. I'm an immigrant.

PS Was I the only one that thought Bremoaners referred to moaning Brexiteers - you know, we voted to leave why can't democracy end now with this result? Why haven't we sent the immigrants home yet?

Apparently it doesn't. Mad.


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 5:06 pm
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Not strictly true that we don't have any exposure, the ECB has 55million of ours as part of its market capitalisation and that was the subject at hand in that article so in the greater scheme of things 55 mil these days, a drop in the Ocean, but the rest of what Jambalaya is saying is basically the jist of my meaning, we've been part of something that has been growing like topsy in its liability, the UK has been trying to deal via austerity with is own problem and the more sensible financial institutions have been deleveraging their EU exposure, primarily due to the lack of any control that we are able to wield on the European situation.

So if you can no longer control something like that, to use an analogy a bit like a joint bank account with a soon to be ex profligate wife, better sort it while you still can then close the frikking thing down before she takes you down with her.


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 5:23 pm
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Just to annoy Theresa May and flag waving little Englanders everywhere

https://teespring.com/citizen-of-nowhere#pid=389&cid=100029&sid=front


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 6:10 pm
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Ros - ok, we are shareholder (minute) in ECB but I will still reject the idea that we "are on the hook" for a bailout in the EZ as Jambas and other continue to suggest.

That is not true.

“Where the beneficiary Member State is a Member State whose currency is the euro, the granting of Union financial assistance shall be conditional upon the enactment of legally binding provisions, with a dedicated arrangement for that purpose having been put in place prior to disbursement, [b]guaranteeing that the Member States whose currency is not the euro are immediately and fully compensated for any liability they may incur as a result of any failure by the beneficiary Member State to repay the financial assistance in accordance with its terms.[/b]”

Counncil Regulation Amendment, 4 August 2015


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 6:20 pm
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to use an analogy a bit like

Is that really anything like our respective national situations? Or are you just using rhetoric to try and justify a preconceived point?


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 7:22 pm
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TMH we've been round this loop before. The € is the very epicentre of the EU amd they have made a total dogs breakfast of it. It shows everything that is wrong and dysfunctional about the political project

If you knew anything about the Banking industry you'd know who.

Meow

Banking as we knew it is done, toast. The European Sovereign debt crises will be far worse than the retail driven credit crises of 2007-9 and many banks and indeed countries won't make it through intact

Brexit is a bump in the road, a side event to the main [s]event[/s] catastrophe


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 8:49 pm
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When is this euro crash going to happen?
How should they prevent it from happening?
When it does happen how will brexit insulate us from it?


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 9:03 pm
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According to THM / Jamba the euro collapse was due two years ago from old threads. the fact the euro is stronger than the £ is irrelevant. Its a failed project and will collapse in 2014.


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 9:09 pm
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TMH we've been round this loop before. The € is the very epicentre of the EU amd they have made a total dogs breakfast of it. It shows everything that is wrong and dysfunctional about the political project

True but so what? We are not part of the €

Still we will have some folk coming on soon, happy that it has endured despite the appaling consequences that it has bought on the poor and young across Europe. A new class of leftie xenophobie who don't give a toss about the vulnerable in other countries. Probably vote UKIP or SNP.


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 9:17 pm
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When is this euro crash going to happen? It's just a matter of when not if

How should they prevent it from happening? Full fiscal and political union with fiscal transfers from Germanynto the lazy Southerners 😉

When it does happen how will brexit insulate us from it? It won't, it's irrelevant. We are not part of the Euro. Of course a disorderly collapse will be bad for us Brexit or not. Any Brexshiter crowing or looking forward to EA weakness is simply being stupid.

TJ trying reading the latest book from your chief econ adviser about the euro


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 9:21 pm
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[quote=tjagain ]According to THM / Jamba the euro collapse was due two years ago from old threads. the fact the euro is stronger than the £ is irrelevant. Its a failed project and will collapse in 2014.

Maybe, but if you were reading THM you'd notice that he is arguing against jamba and considers that point to be irrelevant - the fundamental issue being that membership of the EU does not mean we are part of the Eurozone and hence we have no exposure to any crisis which might result. Or at least our exposure is just the same whether or not we are part of the EU.

My take on this is that in this particular case jamba is busy spinning (for a change) whilst THM is telling it pretty straight.


 
Posted : 17/10/2016 9:37 pm
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"Full fiscal transfers from North to the South" so gifts then. Well they (Germany etc) don't have enough money

TJ the BoE / FSA (regulator) required banks to have a Greek default / euro collapse scenario plan back in 2010. Greece hasn't been bailed out the eurozone is just trying to save their own @rses


 
Posted : 18/10/2016 12:37 am
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Off to Switzerland today, let's see if anyone mentions it 🙂


 
Posted : 18/10/2016 6:34 am
 DrJ
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"Gifts" in the same way England gives "gifts" to Scotland. Or rich people in Kensington give "gifts" to homeless people.


 
Posted : 18/10/2016 7:05 am
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TJ the BoE / FSA (regulator) required banks to have a Greek default / euro collapse scenario plan back in 2010. Greece hasn't been bailed out the eurozone is just trying to save their own @rses

and I hope they still have one along with a lot of other banks that have nothing to do with the EU, if not they are not being prepared. Anyone who thinks a Euro zone meltdown will be contained by not being in the EU is an idiot.


 
Posted : 18/10/2016 7:08 am
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Maybe I'm just thick but can someone explain to me why everybody voted for kicking out foreigners is inviolate and the will of the people but the £350m a minute for the NHS gets **** all and that's just tough so stop whinging?


 
Posted : 18/10/2016 7:17 am
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