[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

@Nipper BTW did you see Merkel was [b]asking[/b] German business to support her stance, she has already had the car unions saying they want a deal. Also see the logic that if UK is granted a deal on freedom of movement then many countries will want the same 😯 isn't that the point, the people of Europe don't want freedom of movement. Its the EU elite who are wedded to it. There is absolitely no need for free trade to be linked with freedom of movement. The EU created this link as a step to political union, an EU superstate.

All the those here who want higher Government spending better hope that there is much more money to be raised from these international tax swerves like Apple. Otherwise there quite simply won't be enough tax revenue as it's not going to come from other sources, "tax the rich" is political dogma rather than a tax policy which is actually going to raise any money.

Tom we are adopting the same practices as Canada, Australia and the US. If that's your idea of the 1930's then so be it

But your entire premise is that immigration in it's current state is bad. Here lies the problem the evidence doesn't really back it up. In fact the evidence is positive and says it's been a good thing.

The bits around it like housing/education/health are things that successive UK governments have ignored. It's got nothing to do with the EU.
There are some things you can blame the damm immigrants for
Paying Tax
Doing jobs that UK workers snub
Working hard and opening businesses
Expanding the population in the areas that are needed to fund the aging baby boomers

But those things don't make a good slogan do they.
Imagine the Mail/Express headlines - Pensioners hounded out of retirement Villa, told to Piss off and go home - from places they made their homes - how very dare they!
A nightmare in Provonce - how I can't live in my retirement property - a retired couple are not eligable for a visa due to being a drain on the state.

Tom we are adopting the same practices as Canada, Australia and the US. If that's your idea of the 1930's then so be it

[img] [/img]

Perhaps Australia wasn't the best example...

[b]@Captain you will recall I called the US loss carry forwrd[/b] [s]stupid. [/s] I am consistent. Trump would do just as Apple etc do. That's why the law needs changing and is one reason why "full access to the single market" is a bad idea.

But your entire premise is that immigration in it's current state is bad. Here lies the problem the evidence doesn't really back it up. In fact the evidence is positive and says it's been a good thing.

Which typifies the whole debate. It is based in a false premise. But the target swing voter - white working class England - wants to be fed this stuff and May&Co seem only too happy to oblige. They know that they have Corbyn by the shirt and curries here and they will squeeze hard.

Unfortunately, while this is good for them, it's appaling for the rest of us.

Rich Australia had a massive illegal migrant problem which they have largely solved with very tough action. People who arrive illegally have committed a criminal offense and should be held in a prison. I think Australia is an good example.

But your entire premise is that immigration in it's current state is bad

Yes uncontrolled immigration is bad, that is the current state but will be changing very soon.

It's good that you still think you can defend Trump's alleged tax dodging but call Starbuck's tax dodging a scam and remain credible.

Consistent. The rules need to be changed in both cases. Starbucks etc is a bit different as they sad down and agreed a clandestine deal with Luxembourg/Ireland authorities involving all sorts of smoke and mirrors.

See what I mean....Jambas last line is incorrect in at least three ways which is quite an achievement.

False arguments with no supporting data resulting in bad outcomes.

jambalaya - Member
Rich Australia had a massive illegal migrant problem which they have largely solved with very tough action.

handy chart here

Norway option please

[img] [/img]

[i]Also see the logic that if UK is granted a deal on freedom of movement then many countries will want the same isn't that the point, the people of Europe don't want freedom of movement. Its the EU elite who are wedded to it.[/i]

I think you'll find that Joe Public do want freedom of movement, it's just that they don't actually understand the consequences of not having it - and for most the only time they'll see any of it is while queuing at an airport and/or applying for visa's.

Consistent. The rules need to be changed in both cases. Starbucks etc is a bit different as they sad down and agreed a clandestine deal with Luxembourg/Ireland authorities involving all sorts of smoke and mirrors.

Ah splendid I see the government have decided to allow fracking at Cuadrilla's site in Lancashire.

Pam Foster, co-founder of Residents Action on Fylde Fracking, said: "This is a total denial of democracy. Our parish council, our borough council, our county council all threw out this application.

"We have pursued every democratic channel we can do, there's nothing left for us. We're pretty disgusted and very upset."
[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-37567866 ]BBC[/url]

What happened to all that "listening to the people" and "respecting democracy" stuff?

Ah splendid I see the government have decided to allow fracking at Cuadrilla's site in Lancashire.

You know that you are living in strange times when Alex Massie in the Spectator starts making sense

[url= http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/britain-british-theresa-may-leads-new-nationalist-government/ ]Spectator Link[/url]

[i]Scottish jobs for Scottish workers. We’re going to stop foreigners from coming here and taking jobs Scottish people can do. We are going to make companies declare the nationality of their employees: those that do not employ a sufficiently high percentage of Scots will be ‘named and shamed’. They have a duty to this country; a duty to our people.[/i]

[i] But I say only this: think how you might react if the SNP were talking – loudly and clearly and unashamedly – in this fashion. Think how you would react to that. And then apply that thinking to the rhetoric we’ve heard in Birmingham this week. Judge your own by the standards you’d use to judge others. That’s all.[/i]

Any chance blackpool could take em to the EHCR ?, (backed brexit by 68% , tho but europes gotta be good for something )

That is good news. Just the first of many hopefully.

Regardless of whether you think it is good news or not, it is an immediate return to business as usual for the government after a week of big promises. As I said on the fracking thread:

[b]Theresa May on Sunday:[/b]

the Government I lead will be driven not by the interests of a privileged few, but by the interests of ordinary, working-class families.

[b]Theresa May on Wednesday:[/b]

Our democracy should work for everyone, but if you’ve been trying to say things need to change for years and your complaints fall on deaf ears, it doesn’t feel like it’s working for you.

[b]Theresa May's Government on Thursday:[/b]

Screw you, ordinary working class families, trying to block the interests of the privileged few with your democracy. Your complaints fall on deaf ears.

Makes you wonder if, despite Brexit, they have really learnt anything at all about listening to the electorate.

And it also makes their complaints about Remainers trying to ignore democracy look just a bit hypocritical.

Norway option please

We've been through this before. Norwegian Referemdum voted against joining the EU but Government ignored it and just signed up anyway. A suitably anti-Drmocratic responce worthy of the EU

Norway option please

I think they'd need a LOT of spin to get that to fly with Brexit voters:
Still pay, still accept Freedom of Movement, still bound by EU rules, but no longer any say in those rules.

What would be the point in leaving?

And it would fly in the face of May [url= http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-speech-tory-conference-2016-in-full-transcript-a7346171.html ]saying[/url]:

I want it to give British companies the maximum freedom to trade with and operate within the Single Market – and let European businesses do the same here.

But let's state one thing loud and clear: we are not leaving the European Union only to give up control of immigration all over again. And we are not leaving only to return to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. That's not going to happen.

Some light relief:

http://www.thepoke.co.uk/2016/10/06/are-you-a-foreigner-government-form/

@Graham kimbers was making a joke, Norway option is acceptable to RemIners given the Referendum result

EU faces a right muddle as the Swiss voted against Freedom of Movement in a legally binding Referendum nearly 2 years ago

Norway option is acceptable to RemIners given the Referendum result

I seem to remember some Leavers on here pushing it as an option before the referendum (though to be fair it might have just been chewkw).

@Graham kimbers was making a joke, Norway option is acceptable to RemIners given the Referendum result

U wot m8?

Aren't you and the majority of remianers arguing for a hard exit with migration controls?

[i]EU faces a right muddle as the Swiss voted against Freedom of Movement in a legally binding Referendum nearly 2 years ago [/i]

Remind me, when have they been a part of the EU?

As soon as the whole process starts we'll get Brexiters telling us Remainers what we really want. 🙄

EU faces a right muddle as the Swiss voted against Freedom of Movement in a legally binding Referendum nearly 2 years ago

Remind me, when have they been a part of the EU?

Well, anyway, this whole thing has convinced me to do a masters and a PhD that will involve me going to places where I might get shot at. I don't feel like contributing to the health and well being of Brits anymore.

*spits on the floor*

Rich Australia had a massive illegal migrant problem

which they have largely solved with very tough action.

Wrong, it's a massive political issue, riots in the camps, rife with abuse and so on.

People who arrive illegally have committed a criminal offense

Wrong.

and should be held in a prison.

Wrong, prisons are for criminals.

I think Australia is an good example.

[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37582150 ]even the software is getting jittery over brexit[/url]....

The software had been programmed by to a spec, someone wrote the spec...

According to some, Hollande’s tough comments about Brexit negotiations are behind the shock fall in the pound overnight.

Speaking in Paris at a dinner attended by some of the most senior EU officials, including the Commission’s President Jean-Claude Juncker, Hollande said:

The UK has decided to do a Brexit, I believe even a hard Brexit. Well, then we must go all the way through the UK’s willingness to leave the EU. We have to have this firmness.

If not, we would jeopardise the fundamental principles of the EU. Other countries would want to leave the EU to get the supposed advantages without the obligations.

There must be a threat, there must be a risk, there must be a price. Otherwise we will be in a negotiation that cannot end well.

He is only saying what we all knew anyway. They hold all the cards as we want to access their market and they can best ride the turbulent waters of a "hard" Brexit

TBH the RW press will go into overload about saying how they bullied us when all they are saying tis this club has rules if you do not follow them then you cannot have the benefits
None of this "negotiating" position is news as they have said this all along

Anyway Dr Fox will make it even freer as he leaves and we start using tariffs

Kimbers Hollande is fighting an election (and in massive trouble unlikley to reach the final 2). Best look at actions rather than words, after years of inaction Calais Jungle is now closed and will be flattened and vacant by December. Far from opening the border France reaffirmed Le Touquet agreement and is spending €€€€ distributing the migrants around France.

Clear the fall in £ bs $ in the middle of the night when virtually no one was trading was a technical flash crash caused by electronic trading. Fall recovered almost immediately. The lower the £ goes the more pressure there is in on Europe as their export sales head downwards. We've already seen record UK service sector activity and manufacturing is strong post Referendum as lower £ makes our exports more attractive, recycling busi ess on TV yesterday reminded us they'd had dealt with same £/€ rates 3 years ago just fine and new business opportunities in US as a result of better for them exchnage rate.

Juncker has said a lot of things over recent months. One of the things he has said most frequently is that there will be no negotiation before article 50 has been served and that all EU officials are banned from any informal Brexit talks with Britain.

Most observers haven't clocked that this presidential decree is outside of his actual powers - so the very criticism levelled at Brussels i.e. unelected officials dictating to member states what will happen is perfectly illustrated in what's happening now. It's also clear that although all member states will be negatively impacted by Brexit, the commission is much more interested in scoring political points and shoring up its power base than working through issues in a constructive orderly way. Again this highlights why significant reform of the workings of the Commission is long overdue.

So is this the new normal then?

http://polemics-pains.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/gbp-goes-eurchf-whats-going-on.html?m=1

Jambs, how is a low pound helping services 'export' ? Can see with manufactued goods

Surely a good services sector just shows how successful we are whilst still in the EU

Most observers haven't clocked that this presidential decree is outside of his actual powers - so the very criticism levelled at Brussels i.e. unelected officials dictating to member states what will happen is perfectly illustrated in what's happening now. It's also clear that although all member states will be negatively impacted by Brexit, the commission is much more interested in scoring political points and shoring up its power base than working through issues in a constructive orderly way. Again this highlights why significant reform of the workings of the Commission is long overdue.

Clear the fall in £ bs $ in the middle of the night when virtually no one was trading was a technical flash crash caused by electronic trading. Fall recovered almost immediately.

[url= https://s16.postimg.org/9x7iym5ed/Firefox_Screenshot_2016_10_07_T08_25_11_321_Z.pn g" target="_blank">https://s16.postimg.org/9x7iym5ed/Firefox_Screenshot_2016_10_07_T08_25_11_321_Z.pn g"/> [/img][/url]

You have a very loose definition of "recovered"!

t's also clear that although all member states will be negatively impacted by Brexit,

Including us. 100% correct - we have delivered a lose:lose result.

BSers are more interested in scoring political points and shoring up their power base than working through issues in a constructive orderly way.

FTFY - "them and us, them and us" cry the Little Britishers

i.e. unelected officials dictating to member states what will happen is perfectly illustrated in what's happening now

the commission is much more interested in scoring political points and shoring up its power base than working through issues in a constructive orderly way.

Graham - i assume that Jambas was talking intra-day

Much more likely that there was a trading glitch of some sort - if currencies start gapping 6% we really are in trouble

The pic on the BBC shows the extent of the flash crash at finer resolution than that XE chart (which only does every 10 minutes):

[img] [/img]

On either chart it is obvious that we didn't recover fully from that fall at all, only the very worst of the dip. The Markets are open and it is still down.

Much more likely that there was a trading glitch of some sort

that'll do wonders for confidence in the currency. No one wants to be on the wrong side of a gl gl gl glitch. 🙂

if currencies start gapping 6% we really are in trouble

quite nice for a UK euro lottery winner though would mean an extra £8mil!

Most observers haven't clocked that this presidential decree is outside of his actual powers - so the very criticism levelled at Brussels i.e. unelected officials dictating to member states what will happen is perfectly illustrated in what's happening now.

As a reluctant Remainer, I have to say that this is spot on. On top of a**holes like Schulz and Scheuble trying to lay down the law on what we "have" to do. They seem to think that what goes for Greece goes for Britain, Well it doesn't, so **** right off.

Jambs, how is a low pound helping services 'export' ? Can see with manufactued goods

Because services are priced in £'s - most of our costs are in £'s wages, property rent etc. Some costs like IT hardware will be in $'s but most of cost base is £'s

I have a feeling the BoE and Government are watching £ fall and consciously not intervening, always pros and cons but right now we are seeing pros. I think if oil was at $100 with equivalent petrol prices and we had same fx move there would be a lot of outrage at even higher pump prices but oil is half that so we have a big cushion.

The world is involved in the zero sum game of competitive devaluations - so the policy ultimately self-defeating

They seem to think that what goes for Greece goes for Britain, Well it doesn't, so **** right off

Greece tried that. Look where that got them. It's ironic cos the tory usual suspects on here have spent the last 6 years comparing the UK to Greece with horror stories about the national debt and deficit etc, and now it seems we're about to be served a Greek sized portion of EU realpolitik. Still, as long we maintain our plucky spirit and stiff upper lip, wave a few union flags and pretend we still have an empire everything will be ok won't it?

Dazh - I fear that you might be failing to understand the difference between the UK and Greece which is pretty fundamental.

But why the angst with Junker - he is stating the obvious. At its core the EU is about fundamental freedoms that are not open to negotiation. He is laying out the red lines.

So there we have it - unless we blink we are heading for the hard landing.

At its core the EU is about fundamental freedoms that are not open to negotiation. He is laying out the red lines.

this

Acting with outrage that a 'eurocrat' dares to restate one of the central tenets of the EU project, is tragic
especially when it was pointed out so many times by us remonaers b4 the vote

They seem to think that what goes for Greece goes for Britain, Well it doesn't, so * right off.

Funny, we seem to be telling all of Europe what it [i]has[/i] to do. All I'm seeing in response is them telling us to * right off.

And as for the currency, I'm currently over here on sabbatical from Oz. Every time I lodge my expenses claims I get more for my money. If the pound continues to fall as much as it has since I arrived back in July I reckon my budget in AUD would almost last indefinitely...

Funny, we seem to be telling all of Europe what it has to do.

Indeed our arrogance is as breathtaking as it is misplaced

I fear that you might be failing to understand the difference between the UK and Greece which is pretty fundamental.

You're forgetting that we're in a brave new #post-truth world where we can say what we like unhindered by reality 😉

Seriously though, whilst comparisons with Greece are a bit silly, I do think the BSers (as you call them) have seriously underestimated the resolve of the EU to bring about a negative brexit outcome for the UK, even if it means damaging the economic outlook for the EU itself. The three idiots in charge of this are going to hit a brick wall of EU intransigence and they won't have the first clue about what to do about it.

The three idiots in charge of this are going to hit a brick wall of EU intransigence and they won't have the first clue about what to do about it.

Well I agree with that bit 😉

We have already had hints from the Visegrads

Brexshit means Brexshit - thats the only thing that we know.

Carney and BOE and Hammond don't seem to get on so well. He might be reluctant to help the Treasury like he did earlier.

Leaders of EU counties are not laying down the law, they are just accepting the result of the referendum, and pointing out what us leaving the EU entails. Is that not what we "remainers" are supposed to be getting on and doing as well? I can see a meme in 30 months time… UK badly hit by EU exit, and it is all the fault of "menditous" leaders of countries still in the EU… it'll be reinforced in the media ad nauseum when we get to that point. The EU will still be seen as the "enemy" after we leave by those that believe in this kind of blame deflection. UK problems never the fault of UK subjects, and the way they vote.

I thought it was pretty clear what they'd do. Isn't a hard brexit the assumed approach now?

I think many people dont believe that we'd actually be that stupid, which is why that Nissan havent close dteh Sunderland plant and the pound hasnt reached parity with the dollar, yet.
and Johnson certainly keeps putting out a different message
and staying in the single market was a Tory manifesto pledge

I thought it was pretty clear what they'd do. Isn't a hard brexit the assumed approach now?

On the contrary, the BSers spent the entire referendum campaign telling everyone that the UK was so important that the EU would be begging us to remain in the single market and would bend to whatever demands we issued. Theresa May is still spouting rubbish about 'having our own, bespoke deal'. This is the biggest lie of the brexit campaign. They know there will be no deal, but still they pretend there will be one.

They need us more than we need them - remember!!

[url= https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/784324499093098496 ]fall in pound now qualifies as a crash[/url]

[img] [/img]

trade deffict widened last month, too

previous falls in the pound have been followed by big leaps in unemployment, we havent even left yet!

[img] http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/resources/mfunemploymentratesince1971chart_tcm77-355827.pn g" target="_blank">http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/resources/mfunemploymentratesince1971chart_tcm77-355827.pn g"/> [/img]

causation/ correlation?

This thread needs Jambys baseless optimism

it'll be reinforced in the media ad nauseum when we get to that point. The EU will still be seen as the "enemy" after we leave by those that believe in this kind of blame deflection.

GrahamS - Member

Norway option is acceptable to RemIners given the Referendum result

I seem to remember some Leavers on here pushing it as an option before the referendum (though to be fair it might have just been chewkw).

just5minutes - Member
Juncker has said a lot of things over recent months. One of the things he has said most frequently is that there will be no negotiation before article 50 has been served and that all EU officials are banned from any informal Brexit talks with Britain.

No, I would Not push for the Norwegian option as they are just a tiny rich nation. UK shall and will establish their own option.

Quite. It'll probably be the first major economy to quite willfully take itself to third world status. I suppose that should be recognised for its novelty, if nothing else...

UK shall and will establish their own option.

I think we've already established what that will be. The only choice on the table will be to accept what the EU want, or not.

zokes - Still not a customer
[Quite. It'll probably be the first major economy to quite willfully take itself to third world status. I suppose that should be recognised for its novelty, if nothing else...

dazh - Member
I think we've already established what that will be. The only choice on the table will be to accept what the EU want, or not.

Brexshit means Brexshit - thats the only thing that we know

🙂

Never going to happen.

I hope you're correct.

But in actuality I suspect I'll be quoting this back at you in about a year's time with a smug Australian face.

dazh - Member
I think we've already established what that will be. The only choice on the table will be to accept what the EU want, or not.

Or what we want.

I really would get yourself to your GP about your delusional tendencies

so petrol up 2p a litre within the next month if £ stays this low

Im guessing that most stock already bought in for xmas so price rises wont hit shops until early next year

so if it looks like we could be on parity with $ & € by endo of the year, just how low could it go when A50 is announced if the torys keep up the same confused/hard brexit narrative ?

And Tony Blair now considering if there is space for him in British politics.
Obviously the meeting between May and Murdoch in NY did not go as planned.

And Tony Blair now considering if there is space for him in British politics.

zokes - Still not a customer

Never going to happen.

I hope you're correct.

But in actuality I suspect I'll be quoting this back at you in about a year's time with a smug Australian face.

I really would get yourself to your GP about your delusional tendencies

Why smug OZ face?

Because if the pound carries on its current trajectory I'll soon be able to afford an entire county over here with my AUD. I've actually become about 20% richer in UK terms in just the last four months, with no effort on my part.

Negotiation is two ways, what we want and what they want.

Yes, and they hold most of the bargaining chips

zokes - Still not a customer
Because if the pound carries on its current trajectory I'll soon be able to afford an entire county over here with my AUD. I've actually become about 20% richer in UK terms in just the last four months, with no effort on my part.

Yes, and they hold most of the bargaining chips

cchris2lou - Member
And Tony Blair now considering if there is space for him in British politics.

my prediction:

trade talks / Brexit negotiations between The UK/EU will collapse, again and again.

The EU cannot give us what our brilliant* negotiators will demand, our brilliant* negotiators will not accept what they can offer.

years will pass before something unworkable is cobbled together.

(*set sarcasm detectors to 'low' - excessive signal gain may lead to explosion)

They might or they might not but one thing I know is that UK is traditionally very good at negotiation. Remember we are the original bureaucrats.

😆 Funniest thing I've read all week. Cheers.

Let me repeat, there will be no negotiation. The EU will layout their position, which is mainly going to be about safeguarding the reciprocal rights of EU and UK citizens in their respective countries, and then they'll say take it or leave it. I'm sure Merkel, Hollande et al are all practising their best gallic shrugs for use in response to the 3 stooges laying out the UK's 'demands'.

ahwiles - Member
my prediction:
trade talks / Brexit negotiations between The UK/EU will collapse, again and again.

The EU cannot give us what our brilliant* negotiators will demand, our brilliant* negotiators will not accept what they can offer.

dazh - Member
Let me repeat, there will be no negotiation. The EU will layout their position, which is mainly going to be about safeguarding the reciprocal rights of EU and UK citizens in their respective countries, and then they'll say take it or leave it.

I'm sure Merkel, Hollande et al are all practising their best gallic shrugs for use in response to the 3 stooges laying out the UK's 'demands'.

Well, the real pain starts here - I know all the Brexiters will rewrite history and claim that the disaster that will be the UK 2017-2020 (at least) was all caused by vindictive foreigners. Where as, of course, it was caused by their collective idiocy.

On the flipside, Hollande deserves a hoof in the slats for indulging in a bit of Brit-bashing to boost his own domestic popularity. Also suggesting that the UK should somehow pay an exaggerated 'price' [i]pour decourager les autres[/i] smacks of spite and insecurity. As I said at the time of the disastrous Brexit vote, the best thing we can now do is destabilise the EU and prompt other exits. At least then we'll drag them down to our level.

The morons who voted Brexit are still ultimately to blame, though!

Remember we are the original bureaucrats.

Two problems there.

1) That's wrong, it was the Chinese.

2) There's no such thing as racial memory anyway so wtf does it matter?

Only one thing for certain is our 20 trade negotiators are going to be very busy for the next 2 years, if they have to negotiate the WTO and EU trade deals.

It must be a very shitty in the civil service at the moment

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/28/uk-lacks-expertise-for-trade-talks-with-europe-says-top-civil-servant

Remember we are the original bureaucrats.