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And Sarkozy is not even ahead in the polls within his own party. Juppe is the current favourite to win the Droite nomination for the presidential election.
Great list of Brexits many unanswered questions here
And the defeating silence (or ignorance) from brexiteers tells you what you need to know
http://jackofkent.com/2016/09/the-many-hurdles-of-brexit-a-short-summary-post/
More dodgy stuff this morning relating to May in the run up to the referendum - apparently she'd been trying to manipulate immigration figures to make the UK look like it was getting a worse deal out of immigration than it actually was.
Is it me or are people getting the knives out for her?
Problems is, who is there who isn't worse?
UKIP enthusiast sister-in-law is visiting 😯
She's never once mentioned politics in the 25 years I've known her. It's like a switch as been flicked and she's turned into a non-stop propaganda machine. Makes this thread look like reasonable adults having a jovial chat.
UKIP enthusiast sister-in-law is visiting
Yup my sis-in-law has definitely felt emboldened to spout a load of racist and xenophobic nonsense since the referendum.
If it wasn't for my brother and the fact that our kids are good friends she'd be right of my Xmas card list
Here's that list of legal hurdles
Hurdle One: Which domestic legal form? Act of Parliament or exercise of the Royal Prerogative (or something else?)
Hurdle Two: What if the Scottish government is resolute in its opposition to Brexit?
Hurdle Three: What if the Northern Ireland government is resolute in its opposition to Brexit?
Hurdle Four: How is the border with the Republic of Ireland dealt with? What impact will there be (if any) on the Good Friday Agreement?
Hurdle Five: What if Gibraltar is resolute in its opposition to Brexit?
Hurdle Six: What if the government is defeated in the House of Commons on Brexit?
Hurdle Seven: What if the government is defeated in the House of Lords on Brexit?
Hurdle Eight: How is any Brexit to be reconciled with the 2015 Conservative manifesto pledge that the UK’s position in the Single Market will be “safeguarded”? How will that pledge affect the passage of Brexit legislation under the Salisbury Convention (that only legislation which fulfill manifesto pledges will not be subject to Lords’ delay)?
Hurdle Nine: How is any exit agreement with the EU to be completed in less than two years? Or will there have to be an agreement to extend time?
Hurdle Ten: How quickly can the UK and EU commence agreement on a trade (and/or framework) agreement to follow the exit agreement? Is such an agreement needed?
Hurdle Eleven: On what basis is the UK to have access to the Single Market?
Hurdle Twelve: Is the UK to continue as part of a Tariff/Customs Union with the EU or will it be able to negotiate its own tariff/customs agreements?
Hurdle Thirteen: To what extent (if any) will the UK accept the principle of freedom of movement in any arrangement with the EU?
Hurdle Fourteen: Will there be any special protection for the City of London?
Hurdle Fifteen: How quickly will the UK be able to sort out its position at the World Trade Organization? Will any current WTO members seek to frustrate or block the UK in this respect?
Hurdle Sixteen: To what extent will areas of substantial law need to be revisited? Would a simple savings provision suffice?
Hurdle Seventeen: To what extent will the law relating to various areas of practice – in respect of mutual recognition regimes and exchanges of information with other member states – need to be revisited?
Hurdle Eighteen: How can the UK civil service achieve Brexit (on top of its ‘normal’ workload) in a period of austerity and reduced budgets – and when it is one-fifth smaller than in 2010?
Hurdle Nineteen: What will be the legal position of rights already acquired (or which may be acquired) by people and companies under EU law once Brexit takes place? Will they be enforceable? Will there be compensation for the loss
Kimbers : I've been following David Green/Jackofkent since the brexit vote, I've often thought about posting up his thoughts on the matter but i can't be arsed arguing with idiots.
Graham - thats an interesting table, quite complicated.
It is. Can you explain how it supports your notion that [i]"European lamb protected by 40% tariif"[/i] is a bad thing?
Given that in 2015, [b]94.4% of our mutton & lamb exports were to the EU[/b] (41,634 of 44,068 tonnes) doesn't that mean that the protection from that tariff actually benefits us a huge amount?
I see (I think) we export 40,000 tonnes and import 62,000 tonnes. So we are a net importer, so not self sufficient so a Brexit opportunity to become so.
44,068 versus 64,037 tonnes for the last full year, but yes.
Note that 90.1% of that import (57,706 of 64,037 tonnes) was from New Zealand and Australia, because as welshfarmer pointed out, [i]"it is a seasonal product so the southern hemisphere producers make up the shortfall when the UK producers have nothing to sell."[/i]
So how does your "Brexit opportunity" work here? I don't remember anything in the vote about artificially altering the seasons or moving the UK to the Southern Hemisphere.
300 staff at the ministry of Brexit should sort this out in no time.....
Jambas, the table is harly complicated, it just doesn't support your view.
So feel free to explain how a headline figure of 64,000 tomnes of imports vs 44,000 toms of exports shows we don't have a lamb and mutton trade deficit ? We could switch all our exports into domestic markets.
@mike I get the point that business may have to adjust but it's clear the domestic market can support all our prodiction. Also it's clear we import large amounts of lamb and mutton despite high tariffs thus showing "free trade" isn't all it's cracked up to be.
We could switch all our exports into domestic markets.
Using winter lambs?
igm - MemberMore dodgy stuff this morning relating to May in the run up to the referendum - apparently she'd been trying to manipulate immigration figures to make the UK look like it was getting a worse deal out of immigration than it actually was.
She was called out for the benefit tourist bullshit at the time but of course she and Cameron just brazened it out. When asked for evidence they admitted there was none and more or less said "it's just obvious innit"
Also it's clear we import large amounts of lamb and mutton despite high tariffs thus showing "free trade" isn't all it's cracked up to be.
which is why lamb costs twice the price of beef, 4 times more than pork and 6 times more than chicken
let them eat cake eh!
Perhaps jambalaya is banking on global warming altering our climate so that sheep can give birth all year round
@Jamba - look at the line under the one you mentioned. You know, the one mentioning "from EU" and "to EU". That's the "EU" related bit. You can tell because it has the letters "EU" next to it:
From EU (bit hazy): 5615
To EU: 41634
You may realise that 41634 (export to EU) is somewhat larger than 5615 (from EU).
The rest of the imports are from elsewhere.
We could switch all our exports into domestic markets.
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No one going to comment that the peoples rights group have won their challenge in court to force the Government into publishing its reasons against Parliament having a say over Article 50?
I'll leave this gem here(one of many) from the document.
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Does Google Translate do Legalese? 😕
Wait a minute.
It's a difficult decision requiring lots of expertise, and yet on that decision we're listening to the general public who know almost nothing about the EU?
The rest of the imports are from elsewhere.
Which only proves that you can still successfully trade sheep meat from outside the EU into the EU despite trade tariffs
No one going to comment that the peoples rights group have won their challenge in court to force the Government into publishing its reasons against Parliament having a say over Article 50?
Ill bet theres some worried faces at the ministry of brexit as they figure out how their going to publish some gibberish that david davies has on post it notes about.......... 'taking back control' and 'that'll piss off merkel :-)'
I'm waiting for the headlines when folk find out that we'll have to still adopt EU regulations (that we've already agreed to) between now and our leaving (whenever that may be).
Such as GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation) in May 2018, but I'm sure there are many others.
And tbh it'll apply to anyone that wants to save/process data of anyone who is an EU citizen after that date anyway, just to wind up the Mail/Express etc.
I'm waiting for the headlines when folk find out that we'll have to still adopt EU regulations
tbh so many brexiters and the press seem so divorced from reality that theyll just lie and say were not following these regulations, that never really affected them anyway!
And of course all the EU regulations that we'll still have to meet when exporting goods to the EU (but will no longer get to vote on).
#fakecontrol
Did we mention that Boris is now fully committed to Turkey joining the EU, despite....
well, never mind, despite everything basically:
Boris is hosting a party for 70m of them at his pad in the cotswolds!
@Graham got it on fhe seasonality, that makes sense. I'd like to see the import / export stats on a monthly basis. As I understand it lamb is anything up to 18 months old so there is some flex to salughter all year round. If the Spanish want access to our fishing waters I am certain the EU will see sense to come to a sensibke agreement.
@kimbers perfect example to show we should never have gotten into this mess (Maastricht and Lisbon) without further Referendums, EU membership should have been sold as a one-way street rather than as it actually was in 1975 which was a purely Economic / business community. It is now compulsory in Holland for there to be a Referendum for any Treaty or Treaty change, should have always been the case in the UK
Nothing on that list can't be dealth with, imo most of it is pretty straightforward
😯Nothing on that list can't be dealth with, imo most of it is pretty straightforward
Well, if we've got rid of ~20% of civil servants over the last few years, it must have been because they had nothing to do, so the remaining ones will have oodles of free time to sort this all out, right?
As I understand it lamb is anything up to 18 months old so there is some flex to salughter all year round.
I'm going to assume, based on their username, that welshfarmer knows better than you or I on this one 😀 but a quick google suggests that "lamb" generally refers to less than a year old and lacking incisor teeth. "And spring lamb" is less than 3 months old (which incidentally is why I don't eat lamb!)
If there was scope to slaughter all year round, or to keep the meat frozen all year round, at a price that was cheaper than importing it from New Zealand (with that import tariff) then wouldn't we be doing that already?
How would removing that tariff, thus presumably making New Zealand lamb cheaper to us, benefit our sheep farmers?
I'm sure British consumers will be ditching their chops and falling over themselves to get at all those delicacies we have been exporting to the EU in a show of support for UK farmers.
Smalahove anyone?
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No? Cervelle d'Agneau then?
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Nothing on that list can't be dealth with, imo most of it is pretty straightforward
Go on then, if it's that straight forward tell us how each of those items on that list are going to be overcome....
It is now compulsory in Holland for there to be a Referendum for any Treaty or Treaty change, should have always been the case in the UK
Cos the electorate are the experts on EU treaties, of course.
Barf! I'll take my offal as God intended thank you very much
[img] https://www.visitscotland.com/cms-images/destinations/glencoe/macsween-haggis-neeps-tatties-dish?size=md [/img]
Banned in the USA that is Grahams.
(All the more for me)
As I understand it lamb is anything up to 18 months old so there is some flex to salughter all year round. If the Spanish want access to our fishing waters I am certain the EU will see sense to come to a sensibke agreement.
You are Jon snow and I claim my five euros...
If you can control the weather and grow stuff to feed them at different times then maybe you could change the seasonal availability.
Just seen a story in the Independent that reckons it'll take another £65m and 500 extra staff to sort out Brexit.
Based upon my experiences of working in the public sector including central govt (and +30 years of working) I'd stick a zero on the back of each of those numbers, at a minimum.
For example; between the UK and Scottish govts they've spent over £300m in the last few years trying to create systems/processes just to pay the farmers their UK/Scottish and EU payments - and still not succeeded.
Interesting Jamba you think Spain will compromise with the UK during Brexit negotiations to get access to fishing grounds. Yet your position was that no Spanish government would allow an independent Scotland to be part of the EU as this would encourage Catalan nationalists, this would have deprived Spain of access to the most desirable part of the same fishing grounds they so dearly want access to now
Remind me why they currently have a larger quota than Scottish boats anyway?
As for quotas
We have the 2nd highest in the EU after Denmark
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foxy likes it hard
he will 'blow apart theresa may's government apparently'
I suspect he awaits another slapping down from number 10
I think I actually heard Michael Howard on Today yesterday saying why would the EU would not want to cut a deal (back to the cheese and BMW line of thought) and went on to say why would the EU want to make sending cars produced in this country more expensive when selling into the EU - he used the example of the Mini produced by BMW in Oxford without seeming to take on board that BMW might up and move production to the EU as it would be cheaper. Brexiteers really are deluded. I know, why not hold a referendum on returning to the 19th century.
@kimbers best way to get a good deal is to be prepared fo walk away, that's the standard stw advice on car buying threads is it not ?
Sarkozy has an election to fight and his Brexit remarks are aimed at a domestic audience but he has proposed the UK be offered a revised EU membership deal, this would be beneficial to France too as the changes he is looking for from the EU match what we wanted, eg end/suspend free movement etc. French are well aware that a hard Brexit is bad for them.
@kimbers best way to get a good deal is to be prepared fo walk away, that's the standard stw advice on car buying threads is it not ?
I kinda assumed that advice would be slightly different if you'd already put down a few billion as a deposit. 😆
he has proposed the UK be offered a revised EU membership deal
Sadly we can't possibly accept that deal, because it has been made abundantly clear that "brexit means brexit".
@kimbers best way to get a good deal is to be prepared fo walk away, that's the standard stw advice on car buying threads is it not ?
If we walk away we get nothing, no guarantee on UK nationals living in Europe, no guarantee for cross border trade and ownership etc. The mass displacement of people working around the eu. The eu will carry on without the UK.
autotrader is full of cars
I'm not sure that the world is full of 27 member state free trade blocs
@Nipper it's a trade off between
Cost of moving production and the logistics and timing of doing so
Trade tariffs saved by moving production
Loss in sales due to trade tariffs (both ways, free trade deal vs tariffs paid by Brits vs tariffs paid by Europeans)
As I said it's relatively trivial to move a a booking office for financial services, you can't easily move a car factory or a French farm.
We have always said a free trade deal makes sense. What does not make sense is a budget contribution or freedom of movement
@mike the rule of law underlies ownership, as I have posted many times Brits own property around the world including in countries where they have no right of residency like US and Australia. I have many friends in Singapore who own property in Margret River or Thailand for example with no right of residence.
Tye Spanish economy is seriously f--ked, they are not going to kick out Brits spending money there and if they try their neighbours in Portugal will be more than happy to welcome them. The EU can grant freedom of movement to Brits or individual countries can effectively do the same.
We have always said a free trade deal makes sense. What does not make sense is a budget contribution or freedom of movement
its like joining costco
you gotta pay the membership fee to get the bargains,
Fox. I listened to His speech, it was outward looking and optimisitc. Press like Guardian are trying to paint a picture of conflict.
@mike what is the basis of your residence in Austrlaia, it's temporary right ? A time li ited period whilst you are employed ? What rights do you have to apply for a passport ?
And I'm sure your friends in Margaret River know of the foreign ownership laws passed. It must be nice to end up owning property you don't know if you can live in. That's the sort of shit brexit could cause. No matter how much you shout they need us more we are looking at possibly booting out thousands of eu citizens. If people think playing hard ball with a weaker hand will work bring your cash round for a game of poker.
Edit I'm a permanent resident applying for citizenship, but then I knew that whaler I moved. Brexit will change the situation of tens of thousands of people at least and you don't know what will be the outcome. We know however it will lie somewhere between where we are now and getting sent home.
Press like Guardian are trying to paint a picture of conflict.
did u see the [b]telegraph[/b] video in that link ^^
fox's speach was ludicrous, I genuinely wonder for his sanity
apparently the EU is just like North Korea 😯
Dr Fox added: "In 1945, both North and South Korea began from a very similar base, but while South Korea embraced open trade and free markets, Pyongyang turned inwards with the tragic consequences for its citizens that we see to this day.A pedestrian wears a suit, featuring the pattern of a British Union flag
A pedestrian wears a suit, featuring the pattern of a British Union flag CREDIT: CHRIS RATCLIFFE/BLOOMBERG
"Seoul is now at the heart of a thriving economy and dynamic democracy where freedom and prosperity are shared among all its people. It should come as no surprise that while over 80% of South Koreans have access to the Internet, less than 0.1% of North Koreans enjoy the same."More tragically, there is a greater than 10 year discrepancy in the life expectancy of those north and south of the demilitarised zone. For the prize of free trade can be measured not simply in terms of economics but in human terms too.
"There is a reason why those who wish to diminish political freedoms try to have closed economies because they know that, especially in the era of the technical revolution that is the Internet and social media, open markets will sweep in empowering and liberalising ideas."
edit was gonna remove those pic description from my telegraph cut n paste, but its better if I leave them in 😉
Whatever side of the argument you are on we can all agree the negotiations will take forever, cost a fortune and not leave any of us better of. (Unless of course you are a lawyer or a politician. Surprise,surprise.)
How long till Downing Street says that Fox spee was his own opinion and don't represents the government view?
Whatever side of the argument you are on we can all agree the negotiations will take forever, cost a fortune and not leave any of us better of. (Unless of course you are a lawyer or a politician. Surprise,surprise.)
So you are saying it would be better to just cut all the crap, invoke article 50 now and hard Brexit as quick as possible?
So you are saying it would be better to just cut all the crap, invoke article 50 now and hard Brexit as quick as possible?
No, just give up and stay as were are. Cost £0.
@kimbers 🙂
you gotta pay the membership fee to get the bargains,
Except France pays zero ? Only Germany and UK have made meaningful net contributions over the years. We understand why it makes sense to Germany a massive net exporter and with a currency much weaker that it wouod have otherwise (weak currency great for exports). It makes no sense to the UK
@mike I bet also despite havng no long term right of residence in Australia you own a house ? You are making an educated risk assesment.
Cost of negotiations, £65 million per anum. Gosh thats 2 days worth of our EU busget contribution. An absolute bargain.
BTW never mind the Italian banks Deutsche in free fall and Commerzbank laying off 20% of it's entire workforce and suspending it's dividend again. All is not well in Germany.
Cost of negotiations, £65 million per anum. Gosh thats 2 days worth of our EU busget contribution
Less our rebate etc, (but if it's good enough to write on a bus......)
That figure* is on top of our contribution, which we'll still be paying for at least 2 years and still will be on the cards if we want free market access
* We all know how ambitious government spending plans are....add on another zero ?
@mike I bet also despite havng no long term right of residence in Australia you own a house ? You are making an educated risk assesment.
...as opposed to a random jump in the dark, which is what people are having to do at the moment given we know the rules are going to change but we don't know how or when?
so Nissan have put investment in Sunderland on hold ..........
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-autoshow-paris-nissan-britain-idUKKCN11Z1YQ
kimbers - Memberso Nissan have put investment in Sunderland on hold ..........
The tories'll count this as a triumph, a new and exciting way to nationalise private sector risk!1!!oNE
The tories'll count this as a triumph, a new and exciting way to nationalise private sector risk!1!!oNE
Does any of this not make sense?
Hello Hyundai!
Nissan is the least desirable car brand amongst the Japanese car brands in the far east so they can go if they wish ...
[url= http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-nissan-mitsubishimotors-asean-idUKKCN0Y41RW ]Reuters[/url]
Datsun 120Y anyone?
Don't worry they could do another version of Auf Weidersein Pet where they all go off and work in a BMW factory.........
Shame,they voted against that as well.
People in the north east voted for Brexit so they cant complain about it .
Nissan is the least desirable car brand amongst the Japanese car brands in the far east so they can go if they wish ..
but 1/3rd of all uk car exports
kimbers - Member
Nissan is the least desirable car brand amongst the Japanese car brands in the far east so they can go if they wish ..
but 1/3rd of all uk car exports
Yes, where do all Nissan cars go? (can't be arsed to google) 😆
I think the people know what they want and certainly not for an organisation to dictate terms to a nation.cchris2lou - Member
People in the north east voted for Brexit so they cant complain about it.
Go Nissan ... we will have horse cart ...
Go Nissan ... we will have horse cart ...
5000 former nissan employees wont be able to afford the cart let alone the horse, still takebackcontrol etc
Not just the Nissan employees. It's all the corner shops they buy stuff from. And local tradesmen. And and and.
I forget the ratio of direct employees to indirect dependents on monolithic employers like Nissan (10:1?), but it really is just about the only game in town round there. It'll be like bits of Yorkshire when they shut the mines.
Assuming it happens. But then it's pretty easy for Nissan to switch manfacture of future models to a French plant.
I think the people know what they want and certainly not for an organisation to dictate terms to a nation.
Jobs? Money to buy the things they want/need? Enlighten me.
kimbers - Member
quote] Go Nissan ... we will have horse cart ...
5000 former nissan employees wont be able to afford the cart let alone the horse, still takebackcontrol etc
They will have to walk don't they? Exercise perhaps?
igm - Member
Not just the Nissan employees. It's all the corner shops they buy stuff from. And local tradesmen. And and and.
They just have to think of something else to do won't they or they can move to London.
kimbers - Member
quote] Go Nissan ... we will have horse cart ...
5000 former nissan employees wont be able to afford the cart let alone the horse, still takebackcontrol etc
It will be a slow wind down if that happens i.e. not instantly like "big bang" ... plenty of time to prepare.
igm - Member
Not just the Nissan employees. It's all the corner shops they buy stuff from. And local tradesmen. And and and.
They just have to think of something else to do don't they or they can move to London.
kimbers - Member
quote] Go Nissan ... we will have horse cart ...
5000 former nissan employees wont be able to afford the cart let alone the horse, still takebackcontrol etc
It will be a slow wind down if that happens i.e. not instantly like "big bang" ... plenty of time to prepare.
igm - Member
Not just the Nissan employees. It's all the corner shops they buy stuff from. And local tradesmen. And and and.
They just have to think of something else to do won't they or they can move to London.
Trying to delete the post but couldn't for whatever reasons above.
I hope they all get fired, the tears of the ****ing geordies will nourish me.
[quote=chewkw ]They just have to think of something else to do won't they or they can move to London.
#getonyourbike
Hahah Aracer, this will be the reaction of Londoners to white Geordie immigrants.
Hahah Aracer, this will be the reaction of Londoners to white Geordie immigrants.