Forum menu
And the rest of the world is not such in a good place either.
The Level of debt in China is huge, at the point of collapse for the banking system.
European countries are a much safer bet.
@mike the £10bn is after all te grants etc, we pay the EU £18bn gross. They give us back £8bn of our own money and we are suppsoed to be grateful ?
then factual quote
In 2015 the UK government paid £13 billion to the EU budget, and EU spending on the UK was £4.5 billion. So the UK’s ‘net contribution’ was estimated at about £8.5 billion.Each year the UK gets an instant discount on its contributions to the EU—the ‘rebate’—worth almost £5 billion last year. Without it the UK would have been liable for £18 billion in contributions.
https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/
grateful? well what is the overall economic benefit of being in the UK for UK business, you know mostly the ones paying the tax to foot the bill?
That apart from the irony of demanding strict immigration controls while suggesting that the rest of europe can't afford to impose those restrictions on UK citizens.
yes but [b]THEY NEED US
[/b]
Dont you know who we are?
I'm Ronnie UKering.
This is never going to happen.
Funny, that's what they said about people voting for Brexit too
And the Tories winning a majority at the GE
And Trump winning the republican nomination
Remember how Remain said the Calais Migrant Camp would be move moving to Kent in the event of Brexit ? Well as I have posted a few weeks ago Hollande confirmed today it would close, migrants dispersed around France. Those not claiming asylum in France would be deported immediately and those who's claims where rejected would likewise be deported.
So far from Brexit making the situation worse for the UK we have the oppostie, the camp is closing and all migrants will be claiming asylum in France or leaving the country.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37462767
So thats the financial argument finished is it?
the Calais Migrant Camp would be move moving to Kent in the event of Brexit ?
Do let us know when Brexit happened...
Well as I have posted a few weeks ago Hollande confirmed today it would close, migrants dispersed around France.
or we may have a slightly different translation
French President Francois Hollande has stepped up his pledge to fight illegal migration, vowing to dismantle a settlement near Calais and prevent similar camps from being established in France.
....
Mr Hollande has been forced to take a visible stance on the issue, under pressure from his conservative predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy, and far-right leader Marine Le Pen.Each are promoting platforms of security, patriotism and national interest in early campaigning for next year's elections.
So the French president is upping his game due to internal pressures before Brexit has happened?
Anyway back to the economics, is the EU a net cost to the UK as a whole in terms of trade etc. How much will we pay to maintain some of the links and benefits etc. It is still laughable considering the amounts involved that a big chunk of cash will suddenly become available. Even more so that it will be spent in something like the NHS. A vast chunk will end up patching the holes Brexit creates.
and finally again do you think the EU will agree to free movement for UK passport holders with no movement for EU residents? Maybe it could be fixed where Expats are subject to an extra tax or levy, maybe a visa with a points system?
Back to that Civitas report:
Civitas said that 3.2 percent of all German jobs are linked to exports to the U.K, whereas only 2.4 percent of British jobs are reliant on Germany. Almost one in 10 jobs in Ireland, Malta, Cyprus, and Belgium are connected to trade with the U.K.
Link to =/= reliant on. As the author said on R4. He basically admitted it was a load of BS.
Stunning comment from Macon ex Finance Minister in Hollande's Government and running as an independent in the Presidential Election. BFMTV TV interview
France would vote Leave if we had an EU Referendum as today there are far too many problems, it is our job to fix these problems amd not give into "popularism"
So now even politicians on the left are acknowledging France wouod vote Leave, Le Penn is speaking of a Referendum as an election pledge.
@mike, financial arguments will run and run, well imo until Greece / euro blows up and then they will be settled. 8.5 vs 10 - arguing its "only" 8.5bn a year is hardly a win is it ?
@Life yup agreed totally, linked to is very vague, even with 12% import duty we will still but VWs but probably less of them.
It's fun to argue but we won't see the real impacts for 5-10 years, it's a matter of vision and optimism vs negativity.
Dont think you can call Macron a Leftie !
.
it's a matter of [s]vision and optimism vs negativity.[/s]understanding the difference between reality and wishful thinking
everyone is to the left of Jamby and a centrist politician is probably miles to the left 😉Dont think you can call Macron a Leftie !
Some effects of Brexit that are not waiting 5-10 years to occur - the loss of people we need to generate innovation that fuels an economy in the 21 century.
Dont think you can call Macron a Leftie !
So Hollande hired a right winger as Finance Minister ? No left wing candidates good enough ? (Tongue in cheek as I know what you are saying, he said himself he's not a socialist 😉 ).
Doctor J the key word there is MAY. It's simply Jounalistic bollix. It may or it may not. If they had real conviction they'd say something like "will" or "most probably". The piece says 8 out of 32,000 EU academics had left simce Brexit, EIGHT. I would imagine thats a perfectly normal number. Surely a pr-Remain campaign group can come up with some propoganda. I've seen their "send it back" video btw
Imagine how shocked I was when it appeared that the left and right hands are not talking to each other or at least remembering who's in charge...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-goes-off-theresa-may-s-script-again-and-says-brexit-process-should-begin-before-may-a7328796.html
Good old bojo still making it up as he goes along
Remember how Remain said the Calais Migrant Camp would be move moving to Kent in the event of Brexit ?
My memory may be failing me but I think they were just repeating what the mayor of Calais said.
Remember how Remain said the Calais Migrant Camp would be move moving to Kent in the event of Brexit ?
We haven't left yet. Hard exit will result in border controls on UK soil.
[i]We haven't left yet. Hard exit will result in border controls on UK soil. [/i]
If it's at the airport then the airline could be forced to take the hit, therefore they wouldn't fly them over. Just like they do now.
And just repeat for ferries.
End of problem, really.
Not really, who would stop them boarding a ferry if they have valid tickets? Unless you have UK customs on the ferry?
[i]Not really, who would stop them boarding a ferry if they have valid tickets? Unless you have UK customs on the ferry? [/I]
The crew.
Have you never flown or not understood why airlines check passports?
Chris the airline and ferry company have to check passport [b]and any required visa[/b] as @b r says - we've been making this point for months. If someone does for e their way on it will be the French Police who will have to remove them. As above just the same as at the airport. Will be the same in the Eurostar.
Calais Jungle will be cleared by Christmas, Hollande confirmed today.
Hollande has already confirmed UK passport control will remain on French side (and French on UK side) in the event of Brexit. The Le Touquet agreement is not dependent upon UK membership.
In other news Deutche Bank is in all sprts of trouble, could go bust and as Germany's flagship bank thats going to pit the skids under the euro
UK Superyacht sales, profits and employment have had a great year with £'s fall post Brexit being a positive.
i understand how it works for the plane thanks , but ferries dont have same level of security .
Have you not seen the other news where a majority of CEO in the City are preapred to move operations abroad ? and mortgages approval at their lowest for 18 months ?
Of course CEOs are prepared to consider moving, that's their job.
Security on ferry's may have to be tightened. Calais Jungle is closing. Existing agreement not dependent upon EU and is continuing.
People seem to be arguing the housing market both ways, continually claiming UK property is "unaffordable" then complaining that market growth has slowed (note market still rising)
i do hope that housing market wont crash , too many people depend on it .
People seem to be arguing the housing market both ways, continually claiming UK property is "unaffordable" then complaining that market growth has slowed (note market still rising)
It's not arguing, try it someday. The reality is the UK is tied to high property prices due to the way a proportion of people have their finances structured and long term savings. The impact of a fall or crash would be catastrophic for the economy and the banks holding the mortgages.
On the other hand high prices are making it very difficult for the younger generations to afford housing and mean the impacts will be long reaching.
It's not one problem it's 2 and the solutions are not that awesome to either.
I see super yacht sales are down in Yorkshire, is this because we have not had our Yoexit vote. We need a referendum for a free Yorkshire, them posh boats will cheap then.
[i]i do hope that housing market wont crash , too many people depend on it . [/i]
That's a minor problem, compared to the way the banks etc are dependent on the 'values', nevermind commercial property values.
We've needed a cooling of the market for years, in fact since it picked up in the mid-90's 🙂
@mike my daughter and and her husband bought their first home at 25, saved the deposit themselves. UK is moving to a more continental European model where people rent for longer before buying.
IMO there will be no housing market crash (another Remain scaremongering prediction), growth will slow if immigration numbers come down. Net migration of 350,000 needs at least 250,000 (?) extra properties pa. Aging populations and more divorces are social pressures driving up demand for homes.
We haven't left yet. Hard exit will result in border controls on UK soil.
@Leku the Le Touquet agreement is totally seperate to EU membership. The French or Brits could choose to tear it up whether we where inside the EU or outside. It has nothing to do with the EU. From memory the US signed a deal with Ireland where you could clear US customs in Ireland for a transatlantic flight.
Jamba - you are right on one level, but if you stamp on people's feet and poke them in the eye then they may be more inclined to tear up any deals they have with you.
An agreement between two states can be "totally separate" from EU membership, but still be framed in a way that only makes sense while both states are in the EU. Hopefully, the French/English border will change less than some fear. I'm not looking forward to joining the non-EU queues and checks, but it wouldn't be the end of the world going into France, assuming you don't regularly work there. I think the work done to stop non-EU migrants entering UK would increase, with the help of France, whether we leave or not, to be honest. I'm mostly agreeing with Jambalaya, for a change.
Funny that Irelend was mentioned though, as our very close agreements with Ireland are indeed "totally seperate" form our EU membership, but I for one have no idea how they can continue once we leave.
as our very close agreements with Ireland are indeed "totally seperate" form our EU membership, but I for one have no idea how they can continue once we leave.
Surely the fact they pre-date the EU is significant?
@mike my daughter and and her husband bought their first home at 25, saved the deposit themselves. UK is moving to a more continental European model where people rent for longer before buying.
OK, is that a good thing or a bad thing for
A) banks
B) people with life. Savings in property
C) first time buyers
D) the economy in general
Or are we back to random unsubstantiated statements
growth will slow if immigration numbers come down. Net migration of 350,000 needs at least 250,000 (?) extra properties pa.
Of course the majority (188,000) of that 333,000 net migration figure are actually from [i]outside[/i] the EU. So Brexit won't change that will it?
What could change is that some of the 123,000 Brits that emigrate every year might decide not to bother. And some of those already living in the rest of the EU might decide to come home.
([url= http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-net-migration-statistics ]Sauce[/url])
So it's not [i]quite[/i] the magical solution that it pretends to be - and that's assuming we manage to strike an EU trade deal that limits free movement of people at all.
as our very close agreements with Ireland are indeed "totally seperate" form our EU membership, but I for one have no idea how they can continue once we leave.
Surely the fact they pre-date the EU is significant?
One of the many reasons that Ireland and UK had to join the EC at the same time.
Both countries in - we can see how that works.
Both counties out - we can remember how that works (not quite as well, but hey).
One country in, and one out - no one has a clue as far as I can see. Or a plan.
Government already committed to open border between Northern Ireland and Irish Republic. It's up to the UK how we police the border and we will keep it open. We will reply on co-operation from the Republic to ensure it's not abused. Easy.
Calais passport control was always a Remain scare story plus a degree of political B/S from Calais mayor who is well aware the camp was never going to re-appear in Kent.
I don't think you've thought that through, as regards Ireland/UK agreements, have you. Just stating a vague wish does not ensure a working agreement.
jamba, it can't possibly be an open border if we aren't in the single market, there will be customs and tariffs and checkpoints...
Open border between Northern Ireland and Irish Republic?
Does this mean we can look forward to a migrant camp at Torr where people try to smuggle themselves across the 20km of sea to Mull of Kintyre?
Or perhaps just a new era of goods smuggling?
Mind you, the Irish are a bit funny about military-enforced borders for some reason. Maybe we should just give Northern Ireland to the Republic, what could possibly go wrong? 😉
kelvin - MemberI don't think you've thought that through, as regards Ireland/UK agreements, have you. Just stating a vague wish does not ensure a working agreement.
Especially considering that government policy seems to be that there'll be an open border with Ireland but a closed border with Scotland, for Reasons. It's just random wishes at this point.
[i]Government already committed to open border between Northern Ireland and Irish Republic. It's up to the UK how we police the border and we will keep it open.[/i]
Not sure it is ONLY up to the UK, the EU (with the Republic as a member) will decide what to do on THEIR side.
A bit like how the Iron Curtain worked, our side was open, their side wasn't...
Got a letter today from my main grocery, dry and frozen goods supplier for tell us prices were going up due to weak £ and Brexit.
So - appoint three useless blokes to fumble Brexit for ages and make arses out of themselves long enough for a weak £ to put prices up which swings public opinion. Then unexpectedly concede the legal case for a parliamentary debate on Brexit, which public opinion swings for remain.
Is May playing a blinder for remain?
I'm glad someone mentioned the Iron Curtain - history explains why so many people in Europe are wedded to the idea of free movement of people; folk memory of hard borders is still strong enough in Mid and Eastern Europe.
[quote=thecaptain ]jamba, it can't possibly be an open border if we aren't in the single market, there will be customs and tariffs and checkpoints...
Its astounding he needs this pointing out and it pointing out that the other side also have a say in the border
Still I am sure this hubris will see us all through to an arc of prosperity
jamba, it can't possibly be an open border if we aren't in the single market, there will be customs and tariffs and checkpoints...
Open border in terms of people being able to just walk accross. Both governments have said so. UK govt free to do as it likes, if the EU forces the Irish into doing something different we can't do anything about that.
Wait and see folks. A50 in first 3 months of next year and all this sort of thing will be resolved.
A50 in first 3 months of next year and all this sort of thing will be resolved.
There will obviously be resolutions. But it remains to be seen if they will be good ones!
if the EU forces the Irish into doing something different we can't do anything about that.
It's up to the UK how we police the border and we will keep it open
Which one are you arguing now?
You forgot (1) that these are negotiations not unilateral demands and (2) the smiley
No wonder the Europeans are becoming irritated by the arrogance of the BSers - its as breathtaking as it is niaive
Got a letter today from my main grocery, dry and frozen goods supplier for tell us prices were going up due to weak £ and Brexit.
£/€ at same rate as in 2011 and 2013 so prices back to same as then ? Or higher as supplier takes advantage of Brexit to put one over on you ?
Many foods will be much cheaper post Brexit if we remain out of the single market and are able to import freely. European lamb protected by 40% tariif, I always buy British but would happily buy from New Zealand like we always used to when I was a kid (pre '73)
@tmh the European are sh.tting themselves, Deutsche is on the slide and this is even before Greece and Italian banking crises returns to the headlines. Stap in its going to get very rough. Much better out than in.
Jolly good, how are we doing against the dollar in the same period?
[img] 
[/img]
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=5Y
Oh.
would happily buy from New Zealand like we always used to when I was a kid (pre '73)
Sadly you won't bet getting it at 1973 prices:
[img] 
[/img]
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=NZD&view=10Y
I love the way one post minimises the effects of a falling currency on us and spthen you take the exact same thing and explain why its bad for the EU and they are shitting themselves 😆European are sh.tting themselves, Deutsche is on the slide
You have to be taking the piss on here as its just so silly
A50 in first 3 months of next year and all this sort of thing will be resolved.
Whoosh… magic wand… all this sort of thing is resolved…
would happily buy from New Zealand like we always used to when I was a kid (pre '73)
Buy what? You'd really rather ship lamb from the other side of the world rather than France? If you ever see French lamb for sale anywhere btw, I never have.
Buy local - my lamb comes from Wales where I live. No wonder the world is ****ed.
[quote=jambalaya ]...........European lamb protected by 40% tariif, I always buy British
Nice to know since most of the lamb exported within the EU comes from the UK
[quote=jambalaya ]...........but would happily buy from New Zealand like we always used to when I was a kid (pre '73)
Hmmm, not so nice. And the reason we import NZ lamb (and have always done) is because it is a seasonal product so the southern hemisphere producers make up the shortfall when the UK producers have nothing to sell. However, the Chinese are now the worlds biggest producers of sheepmeat so it won't be long before you will be buying your lamb from them. All the UK producers will have gone to the wall for sure.
Nice to know since most of the lamb exported within the EU comes from the UK
So does that mean that the "European lamb protected by 40% tariif" is mostly British and removing that protection would hurt us?
@welsh I am very pro UK produce, always buy that when I can even if price is higher. Ditto French products when I am there. I was only trying to make a point that our (especially Scotland's) historical ties are with NZ more than Europe.
I am all for a free trade deal but no freedom of movement and no budget contribution. EU says that nit possible so be ir
in first 3 months of next year and all this sort of thing will be resolved
Christ, you really are in la la land if you think this mess will be done & dusted by Easter.
You're away with the fairies & all the way over there.....& then some!
@tmh the European are sh.tting themselves, Deutsche is on the slide and this is even before Greece and Italian banking crises returns to the headlines. Stap in its going to get very rough. Much better out than in.
My old colleague Mr Cryan is in deep doo-doo indeed, however so what? We remain exposed to these trends either way as you well know. And we are not/were not exposed to EZ financial exposures directly since this is confined to EZ members - so what is the point?
Do we run away from Bz - weak economy, political collapse; Aus - econ slowdown; large parts of Africa - weak commoditiies, political unrest back again, corruption.
I am failing to follow the train of thought here?
Food prices have gone up because most commodities are traded in $ and €.
Is this what you mean about EU tariffs on lamb jamba:
Elizabeth Truss highlighted that outside the EU, tariffs could add an additional £155million to the cost of lamb and mutton exports, making British lamb a less attractive prospect for Europeans compared to New Zealand and Australian competitors.British lamb still does not have access to the US and China markets, so the EU is a particularly important export destination.
Without this market - which accounts for 97% of all lamb and mutton exports - prices of British lamb could crash and put the sustainability of the industry and the livelihoods of 10,000 sheep farmers in jeopardy.
-- https://www.gov.uk/government/news/leaving-eu-would-be-major-threat-to-sheep-industry
-- http://www.nationalsheep.org.uk/news/5960/nsa-encouraged-by-clear-messages-from-secretary-of-state/
290 pages.You have to be taking the piss on here as its just so silly
Wizard level trolling.
Lambaliar!
just made my self laugh.
I was only trying to make a point that our (especially Scotland's) historical ties are with NZ more than Europe
Fair number of Scots diaspora in NZ, but Scotland's historical ties are with France, the Low Countries and Scandinavia (particularly Norway). And of course Ireland.
[I]Its astounding he needs this pointing out and it pointing out that the other side also have a say in the border[/I]
Why are you surprised, it was publically said before the vote and no one (well, politicians nor media) commented otherwise.
British lamb still does not have access to the US and China markets, so the EU is a particularly important export destination.
UK imports more sheep meat than we export
Theresa May thinks she is or possibly actually is Frank ****ing Underwood.
UK imports more sheep meat than we export
Not from the EU it doesn't!
In 2015 we exported 41,634 tonnes of lamb and mutton to the EU.
And imported just 5,615 tonnes from the EU.
Sarko saves Europe!
Wow.. French president doing what no British politicians were clued up enough to do.
Merci, mon ami.
Of course Sarkozy wants us to reconsider, if we don't France is going to have to update it's budget contribution substabtially by €3-4bn pa ? Also risk to them of no trade deal is substantial.
Molgrips he's not there just yet 😉 Quite possible/likely he would win the Le Penn / Sarko run off after Hollande is eliminated as all the Socialists would vote tactically for him to keep FN out.
Graham - thats an interesting table, quite complicated. I see (I think) we export 40,000 tonnes and import 62,000 tonnes. So we are a net importer, so not self sufficient so a Brexit opportunity to become so.
thats an interesting table, quite complicated. I see (I think) we export 40,000 tonnes and import 62,000 tonnes. So we are a net importer
You think that's complicated? You look at that and think we are an EU net importer? Are you a bit thick?
Typical bloody shit for brains brexit voter! 😉
Everyone in the EU faces this risk we all know this the only problem is in jambyland the EU faces risks however we face only Brexit OpportunitiesAlso risk to them of no trade deal is substantial.
I really cannot decide whether this is ludicrous positivity or abject stupidity or both
@convert 😳 thanks for your kind words, I'll fetch my reading glasses 8)
EDIT: I am looking at total figures, we run a deficit ie import more than we export as a nation. Numbers above red line. Now we run a deficit with the EU - From tje Corbyn thread so eone suggested we import cheaper stuff from outside eu (paying 40% tariff ?) andprodcie amd export higjer quality to France etc. This is possible of coirse. What I am saying js we don't need access to an EU market, we consume more than we produce. Could be misreading this of course.
[img] 
[/img]
This is possible of coirse. What I am saying js we don't need access to an EU market, we consume more than we produce. Could be misreading this of course.
The statement may work for overall numbers but a business that sells 100% to the eu will be adversely effected. As with all of this we are throwing out something that did well for people based on ideology not reason.
I watched the Brexit documentary last night.
Obviously leave is all about the 'people', I mean really good to see that the two mega-rich backers (and I'm sure there are more than two) were doing so much for the 'people'...
Yeah, right.
Jambas, the table is harly complicated, it just doesn't support your view.