So with 3 months left to the cliff edge, they are going to eff-off for 2 weeks break???
Which she needs to convince about 350 MP’s it’s a good deal – we know it’s not the only option too
That's what I meant, the options now are basically TM's deal or revoke A50 I reckon, with no deal being technically available but nobody (ie the majority of MPs) wants that. That leaves them with TM's deal or revoke A50, nobody's (majority of MPs) going to vote for the deal because it's worse than staying in the EU so when they're ultimately left with a technical-but-very-unlikely (because the loons can GTF now) no deal or revoke A50, once it's put to a commons vote (in the country's best interest or however they'll word it), they'll 'reluctantly' vote to revoke A50.
Democratic process served, no second referendum, democracy lives to fight another day 🙂 The worst that'll happen is a few gammons explode/tut into their Daily Mails/phone Five Live. Best case is the loons leave to UKIP or A N Other splinter party, crippling the tories for a few years 😀
The only option left will be to revoke. I sadly only got 5/1 on it but put some money on nonetheless.
Democratic process served, no second referendum
Why isn't 2nd ref an option? Likely that the EU would let us delay long enough to have another vote, I reckon.
Why isn’t 2nd ref an option? Likely that the EU would let us delay long enough to have another vote, I reckon.
Because there won't [i]need[/i] to be a second ref. MPs won't vote for TM's deal in January so there'll be nothing to put to a second ref/people's vote. There'll be some kind of emergency vote in parliament between no deal and revoking A50 (because that's all that'll be left) and the majority of MPs are pro-EU so the vote will go in favour of revoking A50. Honestly, I just typed all of that out, did you not read my post? 😉
Isn't it about time Britain stopped calling itself a democracy? Maybe a mediocracy would be a better name.
I believe that it is technically a constitutional monarchy rather than a democracy. I see your point though.
Just in case you weren't terrified enough...
Those "World Trade Deals" the likes of Mogg and Johnson bang on about are nothing of the sort (obviously) but it's probably worse than you could imagine.
https://www.explaintrade.com/blogs/2018/12/11/world-trade-deal
Nobody in the British parliament has the balls to even think about revoking article 50 without a GE or second referendum. That's just wishful thinking.
May's deal is the least worst alternative option to everyone in parliament apart from the DUP loons, (who can probably be bought off with another billion quid).
So leaving the vote on May's deal as late as possible will increase its chances of going through. With no proper alternative all the MPS will be in a bit of a panic and simply voting it through will be the safest thing to do for their own careers.
With no proper alternative all the MPS will be in a bit of a panic and simply voting it through will be the safest thing to do for their own careers.
Problem is many of them are in remain areas, many believe brexit can't be delivered. I still think it will be very very hard to pass mays deal in any form even with obvious bribes to the DUP.
Unicorns are evaporating, let's see who the anger is directed at.
and because it's too good to miss
The morning after the night before at ERG HQ
Kakistocracy springs to mind.
Nobody in the British parliament has the balls to even think about revoking article 50 without a GE or second referendum. That’s just wishful thinking.
It is wishful thinking on my part, you're right, but it's possible. If it's done en masse, with it being suggested by committee or something, you know, and everyone goes along with it all well-if-I-absolutely-must, twisted-my-arm, hand-wringing and for-the-good-of-the-economy-and-jobs-blah-blah, Yes Prime Minister, [i]reluctantly[/i] and that, it's a possibility. No-one's to blame, TM has 'tried her best' to get a deal through, hands were tied, safeguarding jobs etc...
koldun
Isn’t it about time Britain stopped calling itself a democracy?
The arch Tory "rivers of blood" Enoch Powell used to correct people who called the UK a democracy.
Those “World Trade Deals” the likes of Mogg and Johnson bang on about are nothing of the sort (obviously) but it’s probably worse than you could imagine.
Really? Interesting article from Marcus Gibson here
Ah BrexieGammonCentral....
About the author
Marcus Gibson was for a number of years a journalist and correspondent for BBC Radio 4, The European and later the Financial Times and soon became aware of the strongly anti-UK attitudes prevalent in Brussels and much of the EU. In 2003 he started Gibson Index Ltd, a research house based in Mayfair that catalogues the tens of thousands of highly successful SMEs, entrepreneurs and pioneering innovation trends across the UK.
and then starts with a classic bit of balance
A true economic miracle is happening. An extraordinary leap in the UK’s global export trade has occurred – a complete reverse of the ‘Doomsday’ predictions of the Treasury, Bank of England and Department for Business in London both before after the Brexit vote.
Followed up by plenty of could, should, retaliate etc. 2/10?
Interesting article from Marcus Gibson here
Oh my! It's getting harder and harder to spot satire these days.
(We haven't left yet, still have a home market that includes 30+ countries, and new trade deals/arrangement signed jointly with rEU countries are increasing our access to RoW markets all the time.)
This bit about Japanese car manufacturers is priceless…
Any anti-Japanese actions by the French…
The EU have just signed an agreement giving the Japanese greater access to the EU market. The relationship between Nissan and Renault (and Mitsubishi) is well known, even to Brexit fans. The man is a tool.
Thank you willard & epicyclo, i stand (ok, sit) corrected.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte says this evening's Brexit discussions will aim to provide "clarifications", to "demystify" the controversial backstop provision for Northern Ireland.
"It will be impossible to break open the negotiated withdrawal agreement, because of the red lines that you in the UK drew. Given all those red lines, this is the only deal possible," he tells reporters in Brussels.
"We have to seek clarifications, particularly on the backstop… I can assure you there is nobody in their right mind in the EU who wants to trigger the backstop."
He names the British "red lines" as: no border in the Irish Sea; no membership of the EU customs union and no free movement of people.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-46533245
Plane speaking time
Who was it? Which years? What salary?
Robert Broadhurst, from at least 2010 but probably earlier, no idea but based on IPSA report presumably absorbed the subscription monies.
The only formal structure appears to be the subscribers, there is in addition a more informal group of interested parties who are part of the "Communications Group" which presumably includes emailings, Whatsapp etc. The ERG don't appear to protect their research in the same way as the other groups.
The EU must recognise that the Conservatives need the support of the DUP and move over the issue of the backstop, pro-Brexit Tory MP Nigel Evans says.
He says the government cannot rely on support from Labour to get a Brexit deal through Parliament.
“If that happened and it still upset the DUP, all that means is they get some treaty over the line, but we can’t govern for the next three years," he says.
“The reality for the EU is they have got to understand the political complications."
He adds that the EU "don't want to move" but the "ball is in their court".
I must stop reading the delusions of the brexiters.... (BBC Live reporting)
The EU must compromise because the DUP are arseholes, and the PM managed to give away her majority. though it is good for them to be able to scapegoat the DUP in this way
Curiously, none of this has been spotted by any of the UK’s headline media – the BBC, Sky News or the FT
It has, I knew exports were up due to falling £. But he fails to mention that we haven't yet lost our trade deals and seen all the associated tariffs.
I'd also as a baseline like to see what the EU balance of trade with these RoW countries is. How much of the growth is mirrored by the EU (maybe even, because it's an EU-RoW deal?)
Also if our future trade deals depend on our own trade agreements rather than the EU's, they are likely to be worse. We will be competing against the EU now.
Guys that level of analysis is far too deep for Brexit Central!!
sorry, my mistake.
THEY NEED US MORE THAN WE NEED THEM!!
AND WE DON'T EVEN NEED THEM, NOW WE'VE GOT A DEAL WITH KAZAKHSTAN!!
From a friend on Facebook. He's realtively well connected politically through TV work and reporting, he does know what he's talking about:
Theresa May had been relaxed about "No Deal" until she read the terrifying detail in the official papers. That's why "No deal is better than a bad deal" suddenly changed to "This is the ONLY deal". She now won't let "no deal" happen because she doesn't want to be remembered as the PM who ushered in economic chaos while ignoring the official advice.
The EU won't renegotiate the deal, as anything weaker risks the Irish border, and would make a mockery of the whole point of the EU. BUT if the deal isn't renegotiated, Team Rees-Mogg and the DUP will go nuclear and chuck it out.
So ... stalemate. Unless...
The only obvious route out of this mess is some kind of new, specific mandate to do something. Anything. That means either another referendum or an election.
Spoiler: Theresa May doesn't have a great record in elections, so it won't be that.
Note that TM has been asked repeatedly to rule out a second referendum, but all she has said is "that would be the wrong thing to do". That gives her enough wriggle room to say, after Christmas "sorry, I tried my best but we now need new specific instructions from you, the voters." She will move in Parliament for a new referendum with the choice between her deal or no deal.
A majority of MPs in Parliament have remain sympathies and will amend the bill to include a "Remain" option on the ballot.
Article 50 will be suspended for a few of months while we sort this out, and a referendum will be held with a two stage question...
1) Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?
2) If the United Kingdom leaves the EU, should it leave under the terms negotiated in 2018, or without a specific trade deal.
And then we go to the Winchester, have a nice cold pint, and wait for this all to blow over.
That T M clip
She was pretty accurate in the likely terms we would be able to secure.
And on a human level, she's aged about 22 years in the last 2. Poor cow. I'm not a fan, but this mythical sense of duty that keeps her going, ain't doing her any favours long term.
What terrifies me though is the entrenched position that everyone is now in. A couple of (former) friends on Facebook have been replying to any and all EU related posts with "just leave" and "we can just tell them to **** off" and other similarly unhelpful comments.
Correct me if I'm worng here but if "we can just leave" was so simple, we'd have just left by now. The fact that 2 years on we still have no idea of how to leave kind of indicates that "just leaving" might not actually be possible.
But in any future referendum, they'll still be voting leave - in spite of seeing all the catastrophic news about it.
Crazy-Legs
I do hope so.
"We outmaneuvered you, you lost, get over it"
I’m not a fan, but this mythical sense of duty that keeps her going, ain’t doing her any favours long term.
Or the rest of us, tbh. Her supposed stoicism has actually stifled proper debate which is partly why we are in such a mess.
Theresa May had been relaxed about “No Deal” until she read the terrifying detail in the official papers. That’s why “No deal is better than a bad deal” suddenly changed to “This is the ONLY deal”. She now won’t let “no deal” happen because she doesn’t want to be remembered as the PM who ushered in economic chaos while ignoring the official advice.
If that is true then she is a bigger idiot than I thought.
Correct me if I’m worng here but if “we can just leave” was so simple, we’d have just left by now. The fact that 2 years on we still have no idea of how to leave kind of indicates that “just leaving” might not actually be possible.
But in any future referendum, they’ll still be voting leave – in spite of seeing all the catastrophic news about it.
crazy-legs is spot-on
That's assuming leave is on the ballot paper...
1) Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?
We've done that.
2) If the United Kingdom leaves the EU, should it leave under the terms negotiated in 2018, or without a specific trade deal.
This would be an utter nonsense.
Any referendum that doesn't pit a "preferred" leave option against EU membership, just gets us to the same place… leaving the EU in a manner that more than half the population thinks is worse than not leaving.
Can nicola sturgeon trigger a vote of no confidence
Article 50 will be suspended for a few of months while we sort this out, and a referendum will be held with a two stage question
But what if stupid people are allowed to vote again…
From what I've heard they won't get the time to debate it, only Labour will get that as the opposition, but the one thing about these is you really get one shot so it needs to work.
Can nicola sturgeon trigger a vote of no confidence
Yes - if you mean get SNP generally- but no point as Labour would abstain and wait for their own vote
SNP are politicing - if Corbyn initiated vote doesn't work then it's a stick beat him with for not doing it sooner when they asked
Can nicola sturgeon trigger a vote of no confidence
No. She isn't an MP.
