There’s no way the MPs will revoke A50 without a R2. Look at the Lib Dem’s – destroyed over a tuition fee pledge they had no control over. This would be seen as far worse.
What would be far worse is a No Deal crash out so given choice of revoke A50 or No Deal what do you think they would do. Would they really still go with the 'will of the people' BS when it comes to that point?
yes they will - you must remember the tories aims here - to remove workers and environmental protections, to make the UK into a tax haven for tax avoidence and money laundering and to make more money for them.
yes they will – you must remember the tories aims here
The tory? All the tories? If the last 2 years hasn't shown they are not all.thinking the same nothing will.
My assumptions on May's strategy:
Basically "hoof it down the park"
She was going to lose this vote and very likely sink the government and let Corbyn in. This is the "#1 thing that must not happen"
Risks:
Labour vote of no confidence - unlikely to win - gives her more legitimacy
48 letters shenanigans - good chance of winning, gets the ERG off her back for a year. Gives her more legitimacy.
If she loses then the tories are still in government.
If both happen and she wins both then she claims a mandate again.
"#2 thing that must not happen" = cancel brexit
"#3 thing that must not happen" = no deal brexit
"#4 thing that must not happen" = 2nd referendum
By pushing the meaningful vote to the end of January, then it is too late for another referendum which stops things #2 and #4. Also too late to do anything else than "her deal" or no deal, so she squeaks her deal through as only alternative is no deal, as she is in charge and won't cancel or extend A50.
I saw this on the BBC and thought you should see it:
Theresa May to face leadership challenge - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46535739
Ah downing Street now claiming that a leadership challenge will hurt our chances of a better deal.
Thank god democracy won’t be under attack with an unelected prime minister.
The Russians had better crank up their tweet bot.
Seriously though, who would you want to replace her? Apart from the fact that they are all idiots, tm any replacement wouldn't be in post until middle of Jan at earliest and new deal /vote due on 21st Jan. How can she negotiate that whilst fighting a leadership battle?
I'm surprised she doesn't just say sod it, I'm off, you lot get on with it, I didn't want brexit in the first place
What happens now if Labour go for a no confidence motion as well? Do we get to see the squirming of Tories who publicised their 1922 letters but then change to support the government in the parliamentary vote?
Well the beeb are reporting the erg will select one brexit candidate to represent them all, names include the new hair cut failure bojo, David "couldn't negotiate the easiest deal in history" Davies or Dominic "I wouldn't vote for what I delivered" Raaaaaaaab
Where is the sensible option?
Really?
I'm no fan of the PM, but we have maybe 100 days left until we leave, no deal signed and we are now spending today and tomorrow distracted by this?
Then if a new PM is needed, weeks of distraction.
And new PM is expected to just walk in, click thier heels and rustle up a 'better' deal that all sides agree on?
It's lala land..
Please let if be Nadine Dorries.
Can she stay pm without being conservative leader? What are the rules?
(I know she is then isolated politically)
And new PM is expected to just walk in, click thier heels and rustle up a ‘better’ deal that all sides agree on?
Of course, there is no good reason why she could not tell those pesky eu types how it should be.
One possible glimmer of hope is that should she survive the vote, the ERG will look like a proper bunch of chumps (moreso than normal) and will have to go off and lick their wounds having fired their last shot.
However, I think it more likely she survives but still loses the deal vote in Jan and UK no-deal crash out in March.
Well we know "Now is not the time" is already loaded into Maybot's software.
In fact "Let me be clear, now is not the time" would probably just about cover it
Can she stay pm without being conservative leader? What are the rules?
(I know she is then isolated politically)
no. She is PM because the largest party in the commons voted for her as the leader of the party.
Thepurist - I'm wondering that as well, at this point my only hope is that they are letting this shit show play out then pull the vote once the results are in. Once a parliamentary no confidence vote is concluded whoever is standing will have no option but to cancel A50 thanks to the constant dicking about of the other side be they Labour, Tory or whoever. Unless the winner is ERG in which case we really are screwed.
If someone could do something in time for the £ to recover a bit before I go to Spain, that'd be ace. Come on Government!
no option but to cancel A50
The point is to crash the economny, running the clock down is the aim.
Michael Gove has pledged his loyalty.
She’s doomed, then.
Michael Gove has pledged his loyalty.
Im trying to think how low this guy wouldnt stoop if he thought it would get him some where
Can she stay pm without being conservative leader? What are the rules?
Probably, the role of PM has developed rather haphazardly and formal rules are limited. The essential requirement is that the PM has to be able to form a government that has the confidence of Parliament. That said it only happened during the 20th century during exceptional circumstances.
I suppose its theoretically possible Mefty in that she could form a "unity" government with others in parliament to form a government - but practically? Not a chance at all. No one from outside the tories bar perhaps the DUP would join such a unity government
She can stay pm but must form government within 28 days or it is GE.
Given the battering she took from all sides on Monday how could she be the figure head of any sort of unity government? If she gets a close win then I'd expect the vote of no confidence in the government.
She won't mike. No one would join her. However the tories will win a confidence vote inthe govermnment. DUP will vote with the tories, no tory MP will vote a tory government down.
she could form a “unity” government
Whilst that is the circumstance in which it has occurred in the most recent past, it is probably not the only circumstance in which a PM is not the party leader.
However the tories will win a confidence vote inthe govermnment. DUP will vote with the tories,
TM as PM, unable to sort out the NI border? Why will the DUP Support her?
no tory MP will vote a tory government down.
We live in strange times, you do seem to still think belonging to a political party makes you a homogeneous blob devoid of free thought. I can see quite a few voting to bring her down for many reasons.
if I understood R4 correctly, there is no need for the PM to actually be party leader, s/he could be replaced as leader but remain as PM for as long as necessary as long as s/he can command sufficient support in the house to not suffer a general no-confidence vote.
Whether that is tenable in reality is however a vastly different matter.
Do the DUP have a stake in this contest? In the sense is there someone they would prefer to have as leader / PM? In that they could offer a S&C deal* to the tories to enable them to remain in government if someone else becomes leader, but remove those assurances if TM stays on?
* Arlene Foster as kingmaker.....or just another bundle of used tenners?
TM as PM, unable to sort out the NI border? Why will the DUP Support her?
You assume the DUP want the NI border sorted out, rather than say, crashing out with no deal, seeing a hard border thrown up, reigniting the troubles and entrenching their position and power. (Not to mention all those lucrative smuggling routes now the RHI scam money has dried up).
What I meant was sorted to their satisfaction.
Tenuous, I understand that certain elements of DUP can just be bought with luxury holidays nowadays
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-46530569
PMQ's at 2pm. at the risk of sounding like binners, whats the odds on corbyn focusing on bus timetables and school dinners?
I understand that Corbyn is going to grasp the nettle and challenge the PM to a jam making contest. It’s a good job that we have such an illustrious opposition at the time of the nation’s darkest hour.
So a vote was held in 2016.
The people who had that vote aren't happy with the outcome.
Now they want to reverse the result of that vote.
Surely that is an attack on democracy?
In what universe would anyone vote for Johnson, Gove, Raab, Davis or any of the other swivel eyed loons?
What a selfish bunch of ***** these people are, sick of it.
https://twitter.com/eastantrimmp/status/1072782344141066240?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1072782344141066240&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fuk-politics-46533245
DUP not happy either
BBC are putting up some of the calls/messages from the 5Live (normally full gammon) phone in, not much support for the PM, plenty of this is the best deal we can get
The only good thing to come of all this is the word GAMMON
UK Nationalists/populists/stick-it-to-foreigners will exploit this shambles as the supreme moment to fully co-opt the J*une G*lets in 3, 2, 1...
Did anyone catch IDS sending out the warning call to arms the other day? 🤢 😡
A shameless and cynically-engineered fiasco. The repercussions of which shall see our lives out. Thanks, politicians. Thanks, social media. Thanks, tabloids. Thanks, ****heads and loons. Opportunity abounds, and the opportunists are taking to social media. This is the future.
not much support for the PM, plenty of this is the best deal we can get
Contradictions abound. Again. TM has negotiated the best deal possible, but has not much support. Righto.
Here's a graph-
taken from here-
That (if you change the time interval from day to month) shows the drop in pound/euro at the back end of 2008 and the 'recovery', then the drop in June 2016. I used this to show a relationship between the vote to leave the EU and the drop in the exchange rate to someone who voted leave and leave means leave and all that crap. He still insists we'd be 'better off' (whatever the balls that means now) out of the EU. Still. You just can't reason with these people.
Contradictions abound. Again
It is probably as good a deal as can be got. The problem is it doesnt please anyone.
Some want completely out and others want to give up on the stupid idea.
