Admittedly there won’t be much change (-:
No change, in fact it would take up to 10 years to pay for leaving based on our current contributions so that leaves no cash for anything in the short term without taxation increasing.
The suns don't add up to the UK being more competitive or prosperous at all do they?
Unfortunately we are walking away from the biggest single trade market with the hope of setting up trade deals with developing countries. America changes their mind when Trump changes his socks, the only probable ones listed on the International Trade website are Australia and New Zealand who have already stated they would rather set a deal up with the EU.
As Richmtb states there are the EU Agencies to be replaced.
Has any Brexiteer ever read Article 50? There is no deal to be set, we leave.
Jimster - You are correct in that thew EU is the worlds biggest single trade market but you make it sound as if we can't do trade with the EU anymore? The average tariff in the eu is only around 2.5% so I'm sure even if we don't get a free trade deal our exports to the eu will carry on with some help needed for industries with higher tariffs. Then we can start to benefit from lower prices for imports from non eu countries and break into new markets with our exports as well as continuing to negotiate free trade deals. The net result I believe will be that the UK is far better off.
We don't just need to trade with developing countries, nor should we. I was just highlighting one area where we could support impoverished nations whilst getting cheaper prices because of the EU's protectionist policies.
Australias and New Zealand having a deal with the EU doesn't preclude them from having a deal with us.
I have covered the cost of admin in an earlier post.
Yes you are correct, there is no deal [with the eu] once we leave. Did anyone say there was? Of course we are currently negotiating one and I would be amazed if we didn't agree one. There's no way the EU would let us go without one. Germany the boss of the EU has too much at stake. They have borrowed billions to lend to Greece (which they are now making a nice profit on) and as we buy 15% of all cars they produce they would be very wise to make a deal with us.
Perhaps Dickens you should start by reading the thread, you should find the answers to many of your questions in there.
We have already explained the difference between an Average Tariff of 2.5% and what it means in real life.
No change, in fact it would take up to 10 years to pay for leaving based on our current contributions so that leaves no cash for anything in the short term without taxation increasing.
The suns don’t add up to the UK being more competitive or prosperous at all do they?
I think they do mikewsmith.
It won't take forever to pay off the 40 billion fee. We (I) have established that the EU admin we have to do won't cost 8 billion (based on the fact that the whole of the UK HMRC 'only' costs £3 billion)
The NHS money is a bit of a red herring, the point is once we pay off the 40 billion there would (in mine and many other opinions) be money left over.
The NHS does need desperately additional funding but that is a separate issue to Brexit.
Someone will mention the drop in the pound as being a cost in the minute so I'll just preempt that. Many experts have said that the pound was already overvalued before the brexit decision and was due a drop. Once the markets see a more certain future I think it will rebound wiping out any falls and then will go on to gain strength (which has both positives and negatives anyway).
I admit the multiculturalism debate has little to do with brexit and was me being mischievous (-:
the word you are looking for is trolling
It won’t take forever to pay off the 40 billion fee. We (I) have established that the EU admin we have to do won’t cost 8 billion (based on the fact that the whole of the UK HMRC ‘only’ costs £3 billion)
Using the money we pay it will take 5 years, that maths is quite simple.
Unless you have more cash from somewhere.
Next up
https://www.politico.eu/article/post-brexit-customs-model-would-cost-uk-business-up-to-20bn/
The cost of doing business with no border arrangements
I'm liking this new troll… his choice of South Africa for sourcing oranges, rather than any of the many other African counties we already import oranges from tariff free, suggests some knowledge and research, THM style, rather than naked Brexiter ranting.
Now, oranges… has South Africa sorted its black spot problem? Standards and safety are a far bigger barrier to trade than tariffs, as we will find out if we can't sort a trade deal with the EU, but they exist for good reasons.
Now… SADC-EU has written into it a ramping down of some seasonal tariffs on oranges from South Africa to zero, yes? I'd rather they went straight to zero right now, rather than slowly dropped year on year, and we're tariff free all year, but then I'm not a farmer. Should we be protecting Spanish farmers? Again, as a non-farmer I could safely say maybe not… but what about our hill farmers? Our shellfish industry?
So, ninpoop - you’ve been instantly outed under your new ID as ‘dickens’ and already begun the usual bishop-bashing that you did before.
Was it worth it?
Just wait till he hits page 10 of the thread for more wacky ideas 🙂
Unless BoJo is testing his pitch here
But the EU contains lots of the countries with the highest costs of living, so I think that particular statistic is not valid if you are trying to say that the EU is actually causing higher food prices.
Dickens is trying to say that we should buy food from say African countries to grow their economies so they don’t suffer as their populations increase. However I’d suggest it’s not as simple as that – if we buy all their food then they won’t be able to feed this increasing population. Our money will push up the prices. AFAIK this is generally what happens. Food should not be treated as a freely tradeable commodity for this reason.
What we should be doing is investing in Africa and other developing nations to develop their economies, not simply monopolising their food market. The fair trade movement was created for a reason.
What will be the effect if we set zero import tariffs? Can countries not suddenly decide to set export tariffs if they decide their own citizens need the food, thereby leaving us in the lurch? I think international trade is a bit more complex than you realise.
And we haven’t even talked about food miles yet. Does it make more sense to get oranges from Spain or South Africa?
Also on environmental lines, by encouraging a country to grow food for cash that might not be suitable, you could end up creating environmental issues. For example, say someone discovers you can grow oranges to export to rich countries in some hot poor country by using intensive irrigation with water taken from rivers – ten years later you have a water crisis.
Molgrips - all good points, of course we have ethics and wouldn't want to cause the problems you describe. But should that mean we don't trade with developing countries? We just need to trade responsibly. Trade would bring massive economic benefits to these nations and their citizens. The EU's protectionist racket are stifling their development which I personally find appalling.
The EU’s protectionist racket are stifling their development which I personally find appalling.
Yawn, every bodies trade police is protectionist to some extent as you want stability. Put down the Trump repeat it manual (true it does sound like ninfan) and try engaging or just go back to the old username you had.
But should that mean we don’t trade with developing countries?
We do trade with developing counties.
EBA and GSP absolutely rock, where developing countries aren't in a position to sort trade deals. The EU use them to protect developing counties from the damage WTO would otherwise inflict on them. I'd hope, even after Brexit, we could/would still implement these, somehow… other things might take priority though, I fear.
Seems to be lots of magical thinking going on.
If we could move seamlessly to WTO, and its a big if, then there are still lots of unanswered questions:
What’s your solution for a customs border? (not N. Ireland that’s a separate issue) will Kent just be turned into a lorry park?
If we put zero tariffs on food whats to stop our entire farming industry from being undercut?
EU Agencies such as Euratom, Europol, EMA, EASA, etc. Which do fairly important stuff, like keep planes in the sky, co-ordinate police to fight international criminals and ensure availability of medicines, whats the plan for replacing those? I would imagine its more than an afternoon’s work to get them set up.
Not expecting any answers soon.
Its like a lot of things Richmtb, its hard and seems impossible, particularly with the customs border issue, but I think we will look back and wonder what all the fuss was about.
The customs border in switzerland (not in the customs union) has over £400 billion of goods from the EU crossing its borders and only costs £639 million to run. Its something we just need to get good at and the Swiss model is one for us to look at.
Yes if we put zero tarriffs on all food then its possible or even probable that our farmers may be undercut. I didn't actually mean we should just put zero tarriffs on all food, but we will have the choice so we can prop up uncompetitive industries if we so wish.
The EU agencies is a good one. Common sense needs to prevail and I think it will. I don't have any problem continuing to pay into some of these agencies providing we are not bound by the ecj etc. The myth of planes being grounded has been well debunked so won't bother going there.
The EU agencies is a good one. Common sense needs to prevail and I think it will. I don’t have any problem continuing to pay into some of these agencies providing we are not bound by the ecj etc. The myth of planes being grounded has been well debunked so won’t bother going there.
Was that by magic wand waving?
So your leave the EU plan ends up costing more than it costs to stay in with less of the benefits? Does that fit on a bus?
the word you are looking for is trolling
Kimbers - Just for clarity, I stand by everything I said on multiculturalism and think its a debate we should be having more of in this country. But its not a huge factor in the brexit debate and I did just throw it in there for shits 'n giggles.
oh look ninfans lying, again!
The customs border in switzerland (not in the customs union) has over £400 billion of goods from the EU crossing its borders and only costs £639 million to run. Its something we just need to get good at and the Swiss model is one for us to look at.
switzerland are in schengen & EEA
Yes if we put zero tarriffs on all food then its possible or even probable that our farmers may be undercut. I didn’t actually mean we should just put zero tarriffs on all food, but we will have the choice so we can prop up uncompetitive industries if we so wish.
you dont understand how WTO works, I thought you were going to read the links I posted, seems youll just carry on with your fantasies
The EU agencies is a good one. Common sense needs to prevail and I think it will. I don’t have any problem continuing to pay into some of these agencies providing we are not bound by the ecj etc. The myth of planes being grounded has been well debunked so won’t bother going there.
so the brexit dividend gets ever smaller & ECJ is final arbiter for these agencies, so we will have to obey rules, no loger with UK judges on the court
yay sovereignity
planes- grounded? cite please
hows trumplandia these days?
Was that by magic wand waving?
So your leave the EU plan ends up costing more than it costs to stay in with less of the benefits? Does that fit on a bus?
mikewsmith - we talked about the admin cost of the EU, admin wasn't my term but when I used it I was referring to all the costs of continuing to run everything that the EU will no longer be required to.
kimbers - loving your work! You remind me of one of those people that had a great business idea but never followed it through because instead of opportunities you only saw problems... destined for a lifetime of regret and government handouts.
I might have guessed, an astroturfing brexiteer with an unusually positive outlook as to trade (which doesn’t fit with the facts already posted) and who has a problem with multiculturalism.
I’m out chaps, there’s genuinely nothing to gain with engaging with this poster.
Yep so far all your ideas are costing more than membership for the best part of 10 years before we get to any pay to play trade deal.
Thanks for the contributions pjm and mikewsmith.
"I said on multiculturalism and think its a debate we should be having more of in this country."
Can I keep… bagels, sushi, curry, pizza, pasta, coffee, tea… please. And Christianity, please… I'm not religious, but I feel we have benefited from having the Christians come over here and live among us.
a great business idea but never followed it through because instead of opportunities you only saw problems…
Businesses fail when you ignore, rather than identitify and formulate a plan to mitigate for, problems.
<div class="bbp-reply-author">dickens
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<div class="bbp-reply-content">kimbers – loving your work! You remind me of one of those people that had a great business idea but never followed it through because instead of opportunities you only saw problems… destined for a lifetime of regret and government handouts.
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no actual response then ? facts ever the enemy of the brexiter
The Iron lady at her best:
Yeah okay kimbers if you promise to be nice I'll reply later.
The customs border in switzerland (not in the customs union) has over £400 billion of goods from the EU crossing its borders and only costs £639 million to run.
Yes, but it's a definite border with checks and you get a chat from a border official when you cross it (or at least I did last time I drove through). Lots of people in Northern Ireland simply will not stand for this. Likewise, lots of other people won't stand for a border in the Irish sea. It's not a technological issue we're facing with that, it's a political and/or social one.
The technological possibility was raised not to police the border, but to control goods *without* having a border, so the situation is not like the Swiss one.
But should that mean we don’t trade with developing countries?
No, we absolutely should trade with them, but perhaps we shouldn't buy stuff from them of which they have a limited production capacity; they need in order to survive; and they are vulnerable to supply instability. If we were to say encourage some company to build a factory in an African country making high value goods, that helps them grow but does not risk their food supply.
Exactly the kind of thing, incidentally, that the EU does for the poorer countries within it.
dickens... Actually...
’dick’
FTFY.
Folk still rising to the bait from ninfan .... err .... I mean dickend?
<div class="bbp-reply-author">dickens
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<div class="bbp-reply-content">Yeah okay kimbers if you promise to be nice I’ll reply later.
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its a date!
whenever is good dickens/ninfan/z-11/labrat, im sure you have billy goats to deal with or something
tbf i understand that being proved wrong on trump has upset you so ill cut you some slack
Woppit, dickens may be a brexiter but he's being civil on the forum. You should do the same.
The troll is a brexitier? Why assume that? We know zilch about them, they might just enjoy the wind up and have no skin in the game at all. Still, be civil, yes.
Woppit, dickens may be a brexiter but he’s being civil on the forum.
@molgrips "dickens" joined and made a direct route to the EU thread and jumped in with both feet like he knew exactly where he was... the style is very similar to somebody we all know.
https://singletrackworld.com/members/dickens/forums/replies/
He also seems to love Thatcher - it's trolling
I'm fairly sure it's not ninfan. Could be wrong, but he's done a good job of hiding it if he is.
Cougar – Multiracialism is about acknowledging that we are all composed of people from various races or different cultural backgrounds. Multiracialism as an ideology is one where you seek to avoid the problems associated with multiculturalism which is where different cultures live close together but live separate lives, apart from each other and apart form the mainstream.
Ah right. So, what, you acknowledge that different people exist, you just don't like them?
scotroutes – the nation voted to leave the EU. By default that means we are in the WTO, there are no other realistic choices. The vote has taken place, get over it princess.
Why do you hate democracy?
I would like us to have many advantageous trade deals around the world but sadly we need to release ourselves from the grips of the EU mafia before that can happen.
Answer me this. Who do you think gets the most preferential deals from their suppliers, Tesco or a corner shop? Which of those two do you think has the greater profit margins?
There may well be disadvantages to trading within the EU. But whatever they may be, whether real or some Brexie fantasy, they are surely outstripped by being a member of the single largest trading organisation in the world. To claim otherwise is either disingenuous or deluded.
The myth of planes being grounded has been well debunked so won’t bother going there.
Has it? Where?
The Open Skies agreement is between the EU and the US. In a "no deal" scenario we fall out of this and something else will have to take its place. Talks are apparently ongoing to reach some sort of agreement but how far that's progressed I don't know. Without it, we aren't flying. "I'm sure everything will be ok" or "they won't let that happen" won't miraculously solve everything, not even if you think it really quite a lot.
There's also the small matter that EU carriers have to be majority-controlled by EU citizens, and the US has a similar policy. So to reach the agreement we already have, airlines will have to simultaneously be controlled by EU and UK citizens. How's that going to work, we gonna be flying Air Schrodinger?
The only major UK carrier which isn't shitting bricks right now is IAG, and when pressed to explain how they were going to square the circle over this the best Willie Walsh could come up with was "magic."
So there you have it, right there. Everything will be fine, because Magic.
I’m fairly sure it’s not ninfan. Could be wrong, but he’s done a good job of hiding it if he is.
Can't you just turn on his webcam and have a look? Or do we wait until we are rid of the pesky European courts?
Can I keep… bagels, sushi, curry, pizza, pasta, coffee, tea…
Yep sure. However that is just food. Still waiting for an answer on why it is wrong to not want to live in a multicultural society? (you know - people, religions etc,. not just food)
And it is Brexit related in as much as it is probably one of the root causes behind the vote.
Selective edit there. I specifically mentioned a religion/faith that is not my own, and the people who follow it that live among us.
Still waiting for an answer on why it is wrong to not want to live in a multicultural society? (you know – people, religions etc,. not just food)
Well if you have tried it and can express the problems you find with it then maybe people can engage on that issue. If you just don't like it cause. then maybe expect a response that assumes that you are intolerant.
Some people want to live in a society that tolerates others and has respect for people, though you need to accept others to get that yourself.
So which are you?
They are Borg.
[ edit - sorry - a bit silly - but I don't expect anything more useful to come out of the "why is intolerance of others so wrong" in vogue nonsense the other poster is wanting us to "explore". ]
Assuming dickens isn’t just a troll, there is an unfortunate hole in his argument.
The benefit in economic activity to the UK of being in the EU and having access to 3rd party countries via EU trade agreements (around 2/3 of our foreign trade) creates enough tax income to easily cover the £8bn or so club subs we pay for membership.
And that’s before we get to the really good stuff like British builders getting to work in Germany when they needed them and we didn’t.
Or long term stability in Western Europe for the first time in hundreds of years.
Dickens I respect your quasi-religious beliefs that we will be better off outside the EU (you are free to believe what you will)- however I question the reality of them. Even Brexmaniacs like JRM and the idiot Johnson don’t hold your extreme views.
Hang on,Dickie = Ninnie ? Why did I not realise ,could cause some confusion here, they're so different.
About six weeks ago I broke my New Year Resolution not to comment on or even read any of the political threads on here because it is a waste of time, and the blatant trolling means that none of the usual suspects on here can be ‘beaten’ in a debate as the debate/argument/ slanging match IS the result for them.
Dickens, you are a troll. You are not even a good one. The idea is to gently reel people in, get them involved timewise, and only then go for the big provocative moves. That way they will feed your habit. Just jumping in and going for the big wind up straight away smacks of desperation.
And with that, I’m reinstating that resolution that I should never have broken.
Dickens is obviously ninfan aka zulu11 aka labrat...... did I miss any ?
That's why he's straight back in with the trolling on multiculturalism & posting up videos of thatcher
I'm not sure why he feels the need to change his logins every now & again,
I guess because his last one had a bit of a meltdown getting pwnd by this very thread when he admitted that he only liked brexit as a trolling tool & didn't like foreign cultures over here.
He's here trolling to try & alleviate the anguish that's setting in as he realises that justice is finally catching up with Trump
it's a shame really because it would be nice to debate with a brexiter who would stick to facts
My word there are some miserable bastards around. You know its not doing anyone any good all this masturbating each other into a pot of misery and then bathing in the ejaculate of despair. Lighten up, Brexit is going to be awesome. Luckily Dickyboy is back here to spread some Brexit cheer and get you all on the right track...
Lets start with multiculturalism, i thought this had been put to bed but clearly not. Some are still struggling with the difference between multiracialism, multiculturism and multicultural, so lets revisit my definition:
"Multiracialism is about acknowledging that we are all composed of people from various races or different cultural backgrounds. Multiracialism as an ideology is one where you seek to avoid the problems associated with multiculturalism which is where different cultures live close together but live separate lives, apart from each other and apart form the mainstream."
Cougar - is there anywhere in that sentence or any other sentence that I wrote that said I didn't like foreigners? Angela Merkel and David Cameron agree with me on this (i said it first) so I'm in bad company. Having a society that is multi cultural is something completely different and to be celebrated. As is multi racialism. Hopefully thats cleared that up but I doubt it..
Why do you hate democracy?
Cougar - Democracy is a beautiful thing. There has been a vote, the people voted to leave the EU and thats that. If the people voted remain would I still be banging on about another referendum? Actually yes I would. My only issue with the second referendum is that millions of pounds are being poured into persuading the people not only to have another vote but to persuade them to remain. That isn't a fair level playing field. Whats more gangsters like soros are behind it, you can bet he has some grubby little plan to profit from peoples misfortune. Anyone interested should read up about him, its a good but frightening read.
Got to go now but will be back to the other questions later..
