If Labour does a deal with the SNP they will be finished in Scotland for good as people will see that voting SNP is the same as voting Labour with the extra independence tweak.
Political expediency?
Not sure if the Tories cannot win a confidence vote then they cannot form a govt so I assume, constitutionally, this would not mean labour got a chance
Well as I understand it, and I may be wrong, the tories could form a govt, then a confidence vote would have to be tabled by labour. If/when the govt loses, then it has to resign and a new election will be called. Labour won't automatically just get a chance to form the next govt, they'll have to get a new mandate in an election, and this will be far more difficult second time round. I think this is probably the tories strategy, which is why labour need to nip the SNP problem in the bud and go all out for winning more seats than the tories. If they do that, they can form the govt with little chance of the tories bringing them down.
I worded my bit wrong[ not means should be be mean before labour] but if the tories cannot get a confidence vote through then you wont get to form a govt and the chance passes ,without the vote, to Labour.
If what you say is true then every losing party [ in power] could not pass a confidence test so everytime they lost , rather than the other side forming a govt, a new election was held. Clearly this did not happen
The only difference this time is the opposition requires more than one party to form the govt
result for the tories, theyve finally been able to find an angle of attack on milliband that sort of sticks
dont think its good for long term Scotland/UK union though as using fear of an evil scottish woman somehow ruining the country as pre-election point scoring is just going to alienate scots and further
Anyone see the car crash interview with the Labour deputy health bloke today on the Brillo show ? 😯
Cringeworthy, I was glad when the feed mysteriously stopped 🙂
Which is really Miliband all over- always doing his best, and sometimes doing very well, but always within the rules someone else sets for him that he doesn't quite understand.
Nail Head
The Tories may play the tactical game very well as demonstrated by the way they are dictating the narrative around Labour and coalitions - despite the very obvious contradiction that they are only in power due to a coalition and will need to form another one to remain in power. That contradiction should really be an open goal for the opposition.
Thing is we are only here because of two Tory own goals. So their long term election strategy is no better than Labour's
They torpedoed any meaningful electoral reform, denying their coalition "partners" anything but AV which they then campaigned against. PR or AV would both have put the Tories in a better position to form a right leaning coalition.
If they hadn't as enthusiastically harpooned electoral reform then the Lib Dems would have voted with them on boundary changes which would have also helped them out of their current predicament.
If what you say is true then every losing party [ in power] could not pass a confidence test so everytime they lost , rather than the other side forming a govt, a new election was held.
Yes that makes sense, in practice they won't try to form a govt if they can't win a confidence motion, but in this special case the tories could claim the alternative will be illegitimate and hang on for dear life forcing a confidence vote. I guess this just shows the stupidity of not having a written constitution. This stuff shouldn't even be open to interpretation. Even aside from this, I really don't see how labour trying to form a govt whilst being the smaller party is a good thing for them.
It's all pretty weird. Like, John Major says the SNP could blackmail Labour, apparently forgetting he was dependent on Ulster Unionist votes to stay in power. In the midst of the bloomin peace process too. (and never seemed to mind having their votes decide issues that didn't affect northern ireland, for some reason, though apparently it's a constitutional crisis if that happens with Scotland).
And the current forecast doesn't have the Tories able to form a government alone, either- so all this "blackmail" "in their pocket" chat applies every bit as much to them as to Labour. And has done for the last 5 years.
I think everyone is looking into the wrong data, the key to the election is still how many seats swap between the Tory, Labour and Lib Dem in England
Last election numbers below where its 326 need for a win.
Tories 307
Labour 258
Lib Dem 57
SNP 6
Lets say Lib Dem win nothing in Scotland then that's -11 so Scotland doesn't alter the result if the England vote held up. Big IF that, but how much will it change?
Also what's the feel on Tory seats going Labour or vice versa?
allthepies - MemberAnyone see the car crash interview with the Labour deputy health bloke today on the Brillo show ?
Cringeworthy, I was glad when the feed mysteriously stopped
OMG! OMG! (in teenage girly high pitch volume chaz style)
Talking about someone who is so clueless or refuse to answer questions yet want to be in power! Crikey! You lot are doomed! Dooomed! For a large party like Labour that cannot explain details this is going to be a rough ride when they are in govt.
Brace yourself! Brace yourself! We are heading into the blackhole ... 😆
the key to the election is still how many seats swap between the Tory, Labour and Lib Dem in England
I dont think it is as you are ignoring the fact labour are about to lose 40 ish [ conservative guess] in Scotland
To argue that wont affect the overall outcome is just wrong.
The tories could lose more and still have more MPS in total than Labour as they just need to lose less to labour than they lose to the SNP[ ish I accept they start with more anyway]
Also what's the feel on Tory seats going Labour or vice versa?
dunno what the national picture is, but weve just moved house , old constituency brentford and iselworth and new one, milton keynes south are both predicted to go from blue to red
Also what's the feel on Tory seats going Labour or vice versa?
I'd be surprised if the tories gain many from labour. Up here in the north I think the best they can hope for is to hold. As JY says though, the bigger question is how many labour lose to the SNP.
I see [url= http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/21/grant-shapps-accused-of-editing-wikipedia-pages-of-tory-rivals ]Grant Shapps/Michael Green is in the news again[/url]. This time supposedly editing the wikipedia pages of himself and cabinet colleagues in a sixth form project style attempt to further his career. You couldn't make it up really 😀
Shapps really is an odd one!
Grant Shapps must have some amazing dirt on someone, how else do you explain his continued presence in the Tory party upper echelons?
you are ignoring the fact labour are about to lose 40 ish [ conservative guess] in Scotland
Lets see some real numbers shall we; Labour currently have 41 seats in Scotland (total scottish seats are only 59), and not ever single one will go SNP. A realistic guess is SNP ending up with between 20-30 IMO.
SNP card is being overplayed, the election will be won and lost in England. But it suits the SNP and Tories in very different ways to talk up the SNP chances.
Lets see some real numbers shall we; Labour currently have 41 seats in Scotland (total scottish seats are only 59), and not ever single one will go SNP. A realistic guess is SNP ending up with between 20-30 IMO.
20-30 Seat for the SNP?
You are Jim Murphy and I claim my five Scottish quid
Current polling is 54 seats for the SNP
On May the 8th I think this will be the likely result
[b]Scottish Seats General Election Prediction:[/b]
Conservative 1
Liberal Democrat 2
Labour 11
SNP 45
I'd bet a whole Scottish pound note that my guess will be closer than yours
Don't know about you lot but I am taking a day off to watch the election. I am going to have Fish & Chips or local burger with few bottle of beers in preparation of the election result.
Should be fun ... 😆
[i]Should be fun ... :lol:[/i]
FUN!.....FUN you say??? 🙁
Don't know about you lot but I am taking a day off to watch the election.
I usually stay up long enough til there's some confidence in the result. about 3am usually. Might need an all-nighter this time though so dunno what I'll do. Taking a day off isn't an option as I refuse to lose a day's holiday for something so pointless.
Rockape63 - MemberShould be fun ...FUN!.....FUN you say???
Yes. Fun. I mean how much worst can you get or shall I say how hard can it be?
dazh - Member
I usually stay up long enough til there's some confidence in the result. about 3am usually. Might need an all-nighter this time though so dunno what I'll do. Taking a day off isn't an option as I refuse to lose a day's holiday for something so pointless.
I think you might need to stay up until 4pm to have some clear idea of the next person in power ... 😆
I don't buy this website> http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/
/p>
They've used some funny analysis to come up with virtually a total SNP Scotland, as they've used the 2011 Scotland Parliament vote as a guide, but
(1) the constituencies don't map properly and
(2) people in general elections tend to vote more conservatively and favour the main parties.
(3) Not all the constituencies were polled as part of their analysis so they are just guessing with those.
dragon - MemberSNP card is being overplayed, the election will be won and lost in England
More precisely, the election will probably be lost in England. Then the losers will get to argue over who forms a government and that part may well be won in Scotland.
the SNP card is defo being overplayed , its the only effective stick the torys have found to beat milliband with
I see the shappster has taken the only route he could and threatened to sue everyone repeating these terrible smears about him,
It has been a few years since we have seen a high ranking Tory sue for libel and end up doing a stretch as an outcome of this.
its the only effective stick the torys have found to beat milliband with
And a very easy one for labour to neutralise by removing the ambiguity around any informal deals. At least it would have been a week ago. Now it would look like they're backtracking. Is it just me though or have things gone off the boil? Even the guardian has relegated the election coverage down the front page on their website. Maybe everyone's just bored?
Oh teh ironing! 😆richmtb - Member
SNP 45
Bored and depressed. At a difficult time, we will have a messy coalition promising fluff but needing to act more decisively that the Tories (especially if growth stalls).
I see Cleggy going for the public sector vote this morning with (unconditional?) pay rises. Great idea Nick.....
How did Schapps get his job - not only does he look like and adolescent but he acts like one too, relying on stat-fests
Stephens take on the anti SNP tactics in today's FT is a good read.
I was just thinking it's weird how obsessed this election seems to have become with ruling things out. Everyone's supposed to rule out all their future options so that if they ever do get into power they won't be able to do anything. Miliband refuses to rule out breathing after the election! Then suddenly a wild hashtag appears...
https://twitter.com/hashtag/NotRuledOutByTheSNP?src=hash
dazh - MemberAnd a very easy one for labour to neutralise by removing the ambiguity around any informal deals.
If by "neutralise" you mean "capitulate on and give their opponents exactly what they want" then yes.
whats the gist THM?
It does seem counterproductive in the long run, alienating scots and threatening the union, im not even sure what threat the evil SNP pose to the country were they in coalition
its all just a bit of below the belt, slightly sexist negative campaigning and seems to have fall to do with policy
I can see the appeal to lynton crosby though as it does have labour flapping around too scared to answer and has slowed the public perception of milliband's transformation from plasticene joke to potential statesman
its all just a bit of below the belt, slightly sexist negative campaigning and seems to have fall to do with policy
The Tories attacking the SNP works for the SNP as much as the Tories. Labour need to come up with an answer, maybe Shapps is a dead cat.
Shapps can't be hung out to dry until after the election. It may even be in the rules, purdah or whatever.
To me the photo of the three women leaders in a hug, with Ed looking like a spare part, was the beginning of the end for him.
Is it just me though or have things gone off the boil?
Yep, I think everyone is fed up with the general bullsh*t from all parties. I'm not sure all these TV debates are helping, it all seems excessive and the viewing figures are falling fast, was around 4 Million for the last one, down from over 7 Million initially.
Don't know about you lot but I am taking a day off to watch the election. I am going to have Fish & Chips or local burger with few bottle of beers in preparation of the election result.
Sounds a good day. I will do the same. Not interested in big sporting events; but this - I'm in.
[url= http://http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/general-election-2015-the-idea-that-one-party-can-represent-all-that-we-believe-in-just-doesnt-apply-any-more-10193013.html ]Armando Iannucci tells it properly.[/url]
To me the photo of the three women leaders in a hug, with Ed looking like a spare part, was the beginning of the end for him.
really? i thought his approval ratings had been rising since
I think his charisma level is static though.
That election forecast site is interesting, it gives a range and covers accuracy issues. I've not seen that elsewhere, meaning MSM.
I think his charisma level is static though.
Ah, but I'm guessing from your username that you're not a teenage girl?
http://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahjewell/the-milifandom#.mhv1pnmzQ
Blimey! "He can cut my deficit..." 😯
If by "neutralise" you mean "capitulate on and give their opponents exactly what they want" then yes.
Not sure I agree with that. The tories are feeding off the uncertainty of a potential labour-SNP informal support arrangement. Labour, in typical dithering fashion are trying to hedge their bets by ruling out a formal coalition but deflecting an answer on anything informal, when really they could afford to be bold and rule out any form of informal deal with the SNP in the full knowledge that the SNP would never vote with the tories, and deny the tories the opportunity of accusing the labour party of arranging back room deals with the SNP. That's not capitulation, it's just sensible strategy. Like I said though it's probably too late for that now as they'd be accused of backtracking and the tories would claim a victory, so in that sense you're probably right.
@Northwind, agreed the standard press question this election seems to be "will you rule out". I suppose the Clegg idiocy of describing AV as a grubby compromise and making that commitment not to raise tuition fees means every journalist is trying to replicate such pledges.
It is interesting how so much debate had been about how much UKIP would hurt the Tories when the reality is likely to be how much the SNP will hurt Labour. That is going to be one of the key elements of this election.
I still believe the pollsters will be proven to be quite misleading, especially in English seats. I also think the SNP will do less well than polls suggest but still do a lot of damage to Labour, 35-40 seats ?
It is interesting how so much debate had been about how much UKIP would hurt the Tories when the reality is likely to be how much the SNP will hurt Labour. That is going to be one of the key elements of this election.
I think that UKIP will hurt Labour - by their voters flooding back to the Conservatives when it comes to finally not be a 'protest' vote and it's for real with the thought of Labour being the 'alternative'.
teamhurtmore - MemberI see Cleggy going for the public sector vote this morning with (unconditional?) pay rises. Great idea Nick.....
[i][b]Mark Serwotka, general secretary of the Public and Commercial Services Union, was critical of the announcement. He said: “The Lib Dems have spent five years with the Tories cutting the pay, pensions and jobs of public servants, so this Damascene conversion on the eve of electoral humiliation will be seen for what it is.”[/b][/i]
[url= http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/22/lib-dems-would-end-public-sector-pay-cuts-nick-clegg ]Nick Clegg vows to end public sector pay cuts[/url]
I think what Nick Clegg has offered is worth about as much as a LibDem pledge.
And what "conditions" would like to see attached to no pay cuts THM ?
In contrast of course the Tories have said that they can't guarantee no pay cuts in the NHS (rises in line with inflation) a much better better policy eh THM ? Great for staff morale, great for attracting people into health care vocations, great for families to plan their future budgets and financial commitments, great to see ordinary working people pay the price for the failures of those with power and money who screwed the economy through their unregulated greed, eh THM ?
dazh - MemberNot sure I agree with that. The tories are feeding off the uncertainty of a potential labour-SNP informal support arrangement. Labour, in typical dithering fashion are trying to hedge their bets by ruling out a formal coalition but deflecting an answer on anything informal, when really they could afford to be bold and rule out any form of informal deal with the SNP
The Tories gain far more by having Miliband rule out working with the SNP; it removes the biggest advantage he has at a stroke and basically levels the playing fields between the two parties. At the moment they're making some capital from it but it's penny ante stuff.
Mark Serwotka, general secretary of the Public and Commercial Services Union, was critical of the announcement. He said: “The Lib Dems have spent five years with the Tories cutting the pay, pensions and jobs of public servants, so this Damascene conversion on the eve of electoral humiliation will be seen for what it is.”
Come on.. it was clear what happened.
Clegg had to decide on power to get some stuff done, vs principles and getting nothing done. A difficult choice.
He still has to put forward policies though, but everyone (should) know that all bets are off if there's a coalition negotiation. Painting him as weak and unprincipled isn't fair and ignores the practicalities of the situation. And every political situation.. all you end up doing is complaining bitterly your whole life.
Miliband only path to power involves the SNP
He wont rule it out as he will have to have some form of an accord with them post election in order to be PM
They will use this to beat him before and after
Avoiding a clegg pledge moment is the end game here.
