Glasgow now above the 50per mark. ☹️ Wonder what the gov are going to do.
See my post above, this will happen on occasion, particularly in places as highly populous as Glasgow.
We're gonna have to live with this in some form, it's not going away, even with vaccination.
Yep it's not going anywhere, we'll just have to get used to it. As Nobeer said as long as cases and hospital admissions diverge we'll be okay.
Had my first jab today and there was plenty of under 20's queuing alongside me for the walk in jabs.
Be interesting to see if there's a uturn on glasgow moving to level 2.
Seems bizarre to tighten restrictions on moray (which is stabilised and Now receiving intensive testing/vaccinating), and at the same time ease restrictions on glasgow (which is clearly heading rapidly in the same direction).
I think cases in Moray are about to drop rapidly whilst a few areas will rise. I think this will be the new normal for the next few months.
What's made the difference in Glasgow then, what ye reckon?.
I'm going for drink.
We'll also see these sorts of rapid rises in reported case numbers as testing facilities are now quickly brought on stream whenever a significant cluster is detected (the more you test, the more you find).
We'll also see these sorts of rapid rises in reported case numbers as testing facilities are now quickly brought on stream whenever a significant cluster is detected (the more you test, the more you find).
What’s made the difference in Glasgow then, what ye reckon?.
I’m going for drink.
Quite
What’s made the difference in Glasgow then, what ye reckon?.
I’m going for drink.
Quite
Almost certainly a factor, but lots of shops too. Also higher ethnic minority population, and apparently vaccine uptake is lower in those groups. Its actually mostly a southside of Glasgow issue.
Interestingly the town I am in seems to have been covid free for about 2 weeks, but we have a new asymptomatic testing facility opening here next week and encouraging everyone to get tested. If I was cynical the council is trying to make sure its total positivity rate is kept low to offset a spike in another town on the otherside of the authority! But maybe they have some reason to believe there are local asymptomatic (or symptomatic who aren't coming forward for testing - I do believe that's an issue)
I think we are in danger of ending back in lockdown again if they don't act on that glasgow surge - everything we've learned says nip it in the bud early.
I think we are in danger of ending back in lockdown again if they don’t act on that glasgow surge
I really don't think so, unless any new variants prove to have vaccine resilience. It's all about hospital cases, deaths and the likes now, not cases, Lets hope that continues.
I’m going for drink.
It's only outdoor drinking that's currently allowed though.
Meanwhile schools, shops, cafes, gyms etc are all open.
I think we are in danger of ending back in lockdown again if they don’t act on that glasgow surge – everything we’ve learned says nip it in the bud early.
I think it'll be very difficult to meaningfully act on it, especially household socialising. People have been told that, in 4 days, they can meet friends and family in their homes for the first time in 6 months. I really can't see another 'firebreak' having popular support (although, cynically, the elections have now passed).
Interestingly level 3 now allows travel within scotland and overnight stays in holiday accomodation.
It’s only outdoor drinking that’s currently allowed though.
I'll take my hat off to any virus that managed to survive the 90 minutes I was sat outside the Brewdog pub in town last week. Fresh was an understatement.
Its mixing inside that's the issue. Folk know that restrictions are about to be lifted and some of them are getting a head start. I don't agree with it but its understandable.
The usual suspects are also planning a march on Saturday which will no doubt produce a spike in cases.
Hopefully if the hospitalisation rate and ICU numbers remain low then we won't have to roll back any easing of restrictions
Nobeerinthefridge
Free Member
I think we are in danger of ending back in lockdown again if they don’t act on that glasgow surgeI really don’t think so, unless any new variants prove to have vaccine resilience. It’s all about hospital cases, deaths and the likes now, not cases, Lets hope that continues.
Yeah, it has to be now, if cases go up and deaths don't there's no real need to impose restrictions. Soon as hospitalisations start though, they will need to be on that immediately.
The link between cases and hospitalisations should be breaking.
Huh, my "intermediate zone" is literally the worst in Scotland right now. I mean, it's 20 cases and last week we had absolutely none but still, go us!
As others have said, the decoupling of cases from serious illness/hospitalisations, seems to be a reality. Likely also true with the new Indian variant according to SAGE.
No idea how we should view the credibility of Imperial College or SAGE, but thats gotta be the reality of a post vaccinated population and covid? lets bloody hope so!
Form The Times just now:
"Data from Imperial College’s React study, which tracks infections in the community, yesterday confirmed that there is now a clear decoupling of cases with hospitalisations and deaths. Whereas for most of the pandemic a peak in cases preceded a peak in severe illness, the UK’s partly-vaccinated population means that is no longer happening."
It’s only outdoor drinking that’s currently allowed though.
Meanwhile schools, shops, cafes, gyms etc are all open.
I stay really close to a fair few pubs, there's a stream of folk stoating past in big groups of couples walking past regularly, no doubt heading for someone's hoose, and mair drink.
Huh, my “intermediate zone” is literally the worst in Scotland right now. I mean, it’s 20 cases and last week we had absolutely none but still, go us!
I thought it was your skanky neighbours over the hill?
Ah yeah, it's not us- I thought it was constituency but it's "intermediate zones" so it's the east tip of the pentland hills and a bit of midlothian. Weird tbh.
I will go back to licking stuff now that I know it's safe.
Not the trig points though..
I really don’t think so, unless any new variants prove to have vaccine resilience. It’s all about hospital cases, deaths and the likes now, not cases, Lets hope that continues.
To a degree yeah, but theres still a portion of the higher risk population unvaccinated through choice or simply can't have a vaccine for example. If cases rise, inevitably it'll find those folk and increase hospital numbers etc.
I stay really close to a fair few pubs, there’s a stream of folk stoating past in big groups of couples walking past regularly, no doubt heading for someone’s hoose, and mair drink.
And they say ex-smokers are bad😂
Some interesting reading in here.
I think there's a selective few figures in here, mainly hotels, I would like to hear from campsites and self catering too.
I do believe that a good few attractions / activities will struggle to balance cv19 avoidance and earning a good income.
And they say ex-smokers are bad😂
Lol, I'm wan of them too! Smelly bastards 😂
That was car crash viewing in Glasgow on Friday/Saturday night, I feel sorry for folk hoping to get out of level 3 ASAP. Does not minding that they were knocking lumps out each other by the end of the night make me a bad man?
Duckers, even being a Rangers fan, I'd like to see all of those in George square given a hiding. Disgusting behaviour.
I feel sorry for folk hoping to get out of level 3 ASAP.
It was kind of them to be the test subjects in a giant experiment to understand the rate of transmission in mostly <50 yr old men (the majority of whom will not yet have effective vaccination) when in close proximity, not wearing face coverings but outdoors!
Given the type of rangers fan on the streets of Glasgow at the weekend are not limited to the city itself, it seems likely that some spread to Lanarkshire, Ayrshire, Inverclyde, West Lothian, Falkirk is likely. If we don't see that - its a sign that vaccination etc is working well and we could relax further. If we do see it - no doubt the people who were participants in its spread will not be able to make the connection between their actions and the areas they like/work/socialise in moving back to Level 3.
Your study is flawed in that most of them will have ended up in a house somewhere, drinking and filling their noses with charlie all night. Agree re transmission into other areas, the Belfast flight was full too.
Interestingly level 3 now allows travel within scotland and overnight stays in holiday accomodation.
Where did you see this? Everything I've read (apart from something I happened to see in the Daily Record, and who believes that? 😉 ) has said no travel to/from level 3 areas from level 2. Here in Moray even the official line from the MSP was that whilst it's disappointing that businesses and people hoping to travel here are missing out it should only be for a week or so.
Richard Lochhead MSP is sharing a COVID-19 update.
MORAY TRAVEL GUIDANCE FROM 17TH MAY
The Scottish Government has updated guidance on travel following the announcement that Moray will remain in Level 3 when restrictions change on Monday.
From Monday, travel will not be permitted in and out of Moray unless for a permissible purpose, including (but not limited to) work, the care of a vulnerable person, or health care.
I would encourage people to be cautious over the weekend and avoid travel outwith Moray if they can.
You can find a full list of reasonable exceptions here: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/.../344/schedule/4/part/4
Full guidance on travel and transport can be found here: https://www.gov.scot/.../coronavirus-covid-19-guidance.../
I’m aware that constituents may have questions. Please get in touch by emailing richard.lochhead.msp@parliament.scot and my team will get back to you as soon as we can.
So, Level 0 is predicted for June 28 (ignoring new flavours for the moment).
However, level 0 still has restrictions. 10 folk in the pub together, clubs shut, limits on event numbers.
Are we expecting to be in that level for a long time (considering other levels were for 3 weeks)? Or is that it for the rest of the year?
So, Level 0 is predicted for June 28
Your study is flawed in that most of them will have ended up in a house somewhere, drinking and filling their noses with charlie all night.
Ah, I assumed they all needed to go home to their mammies - but you might be right; although if we don't see a "rangers" surge (we didn't seem to last time they kicked off) its difficult to see what sort of mixing etc should not be permitted!
Ken.
A lady at work was saying her son (police) was in a meeting today about putting N Lanarkshire back up to level 3
(we didn’t seem to last time they kicked off)
We definitely did, the usual west central Scotland numbers took a bounce a couple of weeks after winning the league in early march, that took a good 6 weeks to get back down.
East Renfrewshire numbers are rocketing.
East Renfrewshire numbers are rocketing
Don't worry, it won't be long until the whole country joins them, well apart from Moray as we'll all be vaccinated 🤣
Really they're not though, this will be the new normal.
Really they’re not though, this will be the new normal.
Except they are quite clearly in a phase of exponential growth with no signs of it slowing down - they'll have far more impact when they realise that acting quickly and strongly in those areas where something is clearly going wrong will help stop massive ripple effects. People in E. Ren. are likely working elsewhere, shopping elsewhere, socialising elsewhere (the same applies in S. Lan which also seems to be in a growth trajectory). I haven't checked but its likely not even the whole council area, probably those which border the S of Glasgow!
We definitely did, the usual west central Scotland numbers took a bounce a couple of weeks after winning the league in early march, that took a good 6 weeks to get back down.
You have me intrigued, because I was watching the data expecting to see a spike at the time. The Premiership win was 7th March. You'd expect it to take about a week from then for people to get symptoms and tested if the caught it whilst attacking george square the first time round! But then you expect those people to pass it on to others in their house, workplace etc - so I'd be surprised if the peak of G.Sq1 was not more like 2+ weeks from the 7th. Using the data at the top of the page - its clear that 1. Glasgow City was already climbing before 7/3 and then peaked around 15/3, and falls fairly dramatically afterwards. Looking at the data that graph comes from - N. Ayrshire shows a similar trend.
S. Lan - before 7/3 downward trend, immediately (too soon?) after small rise.
S. Ayr - before 7/3 steep downward trend, immediately (too soon?) after steep rise, peaking on 15th.
N. Lan - has been on a downward trend in late Feb, but a few days before 7/3 has a small upswing but that has levelled off by the 15th and then came down. They do have another bump a bit later (which could be a G.Sq1 impact) but none of the other areas seem to.
E. Ren - seems to follow glasgow - rising before, peaks around 15th, fall quickly.
E and W Dun. do have sizable bumps that might be attributable to G.Sq1 but they seem to happen very quickly after 7/3 - the lack of an incubation period is surprising.
Invercyle - not much more than noise
W. Loth - a nice downward curve with a significant peak onset around 14/3.
Falk and Clax similar to WL but a few days later.
So for comparison you need alternative areas where the rangers nutters might not have travelled all the way to Glasgow from...
Edinburgh - very similar to S. Lan - initial bump is small, but then there is a later bump
Fife - similar to N. Lan - there was a start of a bump earlier than 7/3
Dundee - pretty level on 7/3 but then a significant bump appears 15/3
Aberdeen - like N. Lan was slowly rising before 7/3 and then peaks around 15/3
P&K - peak onset around 13/7
Stirling - a small bump that started before 7/3
So if I was looking for correlations I'd say that WL, Clax, Falk, Perth could all have been "caused" by G.Sq1 but the rest were probably not (or not a major factor), and weather, schools, other relaxations were likely a factor.
If travel in gets banned, how will folk in Morayshire fill the wickerman this year?
With the tourists that shouldn't be here 😉
...Goes and puts a hat on just so he can take it off to Swavis...
So if I was looking for correlations I’d say that WL, Clax, Falk, Perth could all have been “caused” by G.Sq1 but the rest were probably not (or not a major factor), and weather, schools, other relaxations were likely a factor.
There's probably loads of factors tbh, as there is in any rise or dip, but keeping an eye on my local numbers, South Ayrshire (and the other 2 Ayrshire authorities) there was a bounce, schools weren't a factor as they never started back til after that.
