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A bothy reachable by car – surely some kind of oxymoron!
It depends if you have the key to the gate, know the long way around or just lift the gate of hinges - if any of the previous apply, there are a good few you can get a vehicle to.
feels like the moment we need to add more outdoor liberty and day trips to exercise into the can do list. Otherwise law abiding and covid cautious people are doing it already. Surely once people feel they are breaking the guidelines a bit it is easier to break them a lot. Make them feel they are off the naughty step and we might hold the line on meetings in houses etc where the real damage is done
+1.
And re the motorcyclists.... well surely that has to be one of the most covid-safe activities there is, so I really can't get too bothered by it.
Of course its easy at the moment as there are no indoor venues available for people to go to. Will be harder to hold the line when these reopen, and we get some normal Scottish summer weather ...
I've been out of my LA for a ride a couple of times this week, to an area with non muddy and quiet trails. This is rather than the really muddy, cut up and busy local stuff. Not right I admit but strangely it did help my grumpy, old man funk a surprising amount.
The only risk as afar as I can see (also applies to TJ's pals) is of having an accident which requires local assistance thereby possibly spreading infection.
While I can see why they didn't change the LA travel restrictions they surely apply less while we are not tiered?
While I can see why they didn’t change the LA travel restrictions they surely apply less while we are not tiered?
There's a thought.
Again, perhaps down to not being able to legislate for Rule No.1, and if they did away with such clear "don't leave the authority area" guidance, some plum will head to Findhorn for a 'pint of milk and a quiet walk' in their camper, on the basis it is the first quiet place they can find outside Bearsden...
While I can see why they didn’t change the LA travel restrictions they surely apply less while we are not tiered?
I can see funky new variants (current and future) and wanting to be in a position to isolate them to specific areas being the reason used, and arguably legitimately, to keep to LAs even outside of tiers (or were we levels and England tiers, it's all blending into one in my head now). The fun and games today with the 'new brazil' variant being a case in point.
LD - thats within the rules is it not so long as yo did not drive more than 5 miles outside to start?
Yeah but I did and debateably plenty stuff from door. Felt very refreshing despite breaking rule no.1.
Fair point on new variants, hadn't really occurred to me.
The fun and games today with the ‘new brazil’ variant being a case in point.
Brings a new meaning to 'get a new Brazilian'....
Must have been 50 cars and vans at the Hayfield today plus 40 others dotted around. All local? Who knows. It was glorious though so I really can't blame anyone and it's not like there were any crowded areas on the 40km ride I did.
I got chatting to two ladies up at Ryvoan. They were a bit worried they'd stretched the rules by coming all the way from..... Grantown 😊
The tiers are going to be different though from the end of April aren't they? As in different restrictions etc.
Yes the goalposts have been moved going to be harder for some areas to drop tiers 🤔
BBC News - Covid in Scotland: Tighter rules will be used to decide on levels
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56237471
Can't really argue with that. It's what should've happened from the very start, a harder local lockdown where needed to stamp out any flare ups of infection. With the vaccine roll out infection rates should come down quite quickly I'd have thought anyway.
TBH, areas didn't move down tiers when they should have (from a numbers perspective) because "reasons", so they were pretty useless indicators of what level your area would be in anyway.
You just have to wait and be told.
And in the case of Glasgow there's not even much point waiting to be told. Just assume it will stretch on forever
I've got leave for my 40th in the first couple of days of June. Planning on coming up from englandshire to stay at my mum and dads (haven't seen them since last June).
I've played by the rules from the start and will continue to do so, but if I cant make it up then I will be well and truly gutted.
Fingers crossed.
I do think lockdown fatigue is well and truely setting in. Its inevitable really and we will reach a tipping point where the restrictions good in reducing covid is going to do such harm in mental health that the cost / benefit equation is going to change.
And in the case of Glasgow there’s not even much point waiting to be told. Just assume it will stretch on forever
Sadly I think this will be true of an awful lot of areas. 50 cases per 100,000 population means that a total of 250 cases in the entirety of Edinburgh or Glasgow will see the respective city largely shut down. Equally, around 45 - 50 cases spread across the 1,800 square miles of the Borders will have the same outcome.
Think your right there TJ. I reckon the first lockdown anniversary will be a tipping point for most people combined with the start of better weather
Definitely, it's now been a really long time. It's been a vastly different experience for those in the cities than those with open space
Yup, just read that link and now thoroughly miserable. Not helped by yesterday's jag.
4 months since I did anything normal, now throughly ****ed off by the whole thing. People are now deliberately breaking the rules as they are going off their heads, I can see control being completely lost before long.
Agree with TJ and Grantyboy above - this last year, of which we've been under effective house arrest for circa 9 out of last 12 months has been narrated by "stay home to look after granny". Well now granny has been jabbed and in the news yesterday it was quoted as 80% drop in likelihood of serious illness.
Once people have their vunerable loved ones inoculated and it becomes "stay home to protect someone else's random vulnerable person" then people will become far less accommodating of any further lockdowns
Sadly I think this will be true of an awful lot of areas. 50 cases per 100,000 population means that a total of 250 cases in the entirety of Edinburgh or Glasgow will see the respective city largely shut down. Equally, around 45 – 50 cases spread across the 1,800 square miles of the Borders will have the same outcome.
Surely the main consideration for determining restrictions should be hospitalisations rather than cases?
That's a very good point. If there were a 1000 people with only flu like symptoms but nobody requiring hospital treatment why would there be the need to lockdown?
Edit - I suppose mutation is one reason.
National is easy to understand though. Lockdown in borders, d&g, Highland etc as regions will be more frustrating. Imagine commuters from Peebles to Edinburgh cause borders to lockdown when there's no cases in newcastleton or eyemouth. How granular do you go?
If there were a 1000 people with only flu like symptoms but nobody requiring hospital treatment why would there be the need to lockdown?
That was my thinking. Obviously it's not quite so simple as there are concerns about new variants and high community prevalence is not a good thing so we'd need to keep some measures to reduce community transmission. However, high levels of restriction would be hard to justify for a virus which does't cause serious disease and the vaccines are going to get us to that point in the not too distant future.
SG are going to have to change their tune about restrictions.
Every park in Edinburgh was full of folk, in groups or pairs, having picnics and/or tinnies yesterday.
Against the rules obviously, but so prevalent enforcement is now impossible.
As the science crew have said, meeting folk outside is essentially harmless, so they'll need to allow it so they are taken seriously when enforcing other rules like mixing inside or travel.
TBH, areas didn’t move down tiers when they should have (from a numbers perspective) because “reasons”, so they were pretty useless indicators of what level your area would be in anyway.
You just have to wait and be told.
There never were strict rules on numbers for the transition up/down. Some rough criteria were suggested but it had to be judgement call - if an area went from 0-99 in a week and the threshold was 100 you wouldn't wait till next week to change, similarly if its taken 6 weeks to go from 120-99 relaxation is bound to great a bounce. Add to that the effects of the neighbouring areas etc. and that the criteria are not just about case numbers but things like test positivity rate and you end up with some sort of dashboard for each area and only move down when almost all the indicators are looking good, but move up as soon as a few indicators look bad.
I think if we remain on the current trajectory its going to be hard to justify not moving back to the old level 4 restrictions - I think that is effectively the plan on 15th March though? Its difficult for them to bring that forward: they've promised schools go back as soon as possible, and that's hard to just do overnight so I think we have 2 more weeks of this.
How granular do you go?
I live in East Ren. If I open my front door, and cross the road, I'm in Glasgow. Half a dozen steps takes me into a different LA area. The nearest supermarket to me is in Glasgow rather than East Ren. It'll be impossible to be granular about any localised lockdowns
The other complicating factor is if England unlocks much more quickly, which seems likely. It would be pretty easy to exceed those case numbers just from movement of people from England (whether officially permitted or not). Can't see that ending well.
There never were strict rules on numbers for the transition up/down.
There were - they just weren't known outwith the group of people making the decisions.
Some rough criteria were suggested but it had to be judgement call – if an area went from 0-99 in a week and the threshold was 100 you wouldn’t wait till next week to change, similarly if its taken 6 weeks to go from 120-99 relaxation is bound to great a bounce. Add to that the effects of the neighbouring areas etc. and that the criteria are not just about case numbers but things like test positivity rate and you end up with some sort of dashboard for each area and only move down when almost all the indicators are looking good, but move up as soon as a few indicators look bad.
All this can and probably was in some sort of decision making process - it's just likely that the process/thresholds changed quite frequently and it was never openly published.
There's no reason why it couldn't be made available - although expecting joe mcpunter to understand it may be a challenge.
Well that has burst my ball.I am in Angus, we are lumped in with Dundee because of the gouging of the NHS. Chances of having any normality back this year are slim,vaccine or not.
I am in Angus, we are lumped in with Dundee because of the gouging of the NHS
Where do you get that idea from? Dundee City is separate from Angus.
As of yesterday Angus was on 52 cases per 100k people and Dundee City 66/100k people.
During the last lockdown it went on hospitals. So Angus, which is fairly spread out was part of Tayside when levels were considered because the hospital you would go to was Ninewells in Dundee.
All primary kids back on the 15th March with blended learning for secondary up to April. Looks like I’ll be back in school full time from the 15th.
Other restrictions might be loosened quicker than first thought.
Our model for blended looks brutal, numbers mean teaching all of say; third year, one day so same lesson 6/7 times. Thankfully only for a couple of weeks.
During the last lockdown it went on hospitals.
No it never otherwise we would have been in tier 2 with South Ayrshire. (or they would have been in tier 3 with us)
This round of blended learning will be very challenging to plan. I have already this afternoon spoken to parents who would prefer to keep their kids off full time until they are back full time. If uptake is only going to be 60%, we need to know this for planning. Parents in S1-S3 will (understandably) want Maths & English as a priority, but so will Senior Phase. With 2m social distancing it will be very difficult. I'd like to se the SG exemplars - for the last round I thought they were quite good.
No it never otherwise we would have been in tier 2 with South Ayrshire. (or they would have been in tier 3 with us)
Did here, health board/council.
Shetland should be straight to zero on current numbers, but before this 'lockdown' we should have been zero too, but were level 1+.
I can't see them putting us straight to zero on principle. I think the rationale last time for the 1+ was due to the coming and going of contractors/locums and the need for many of us to travel to Aberdeen for hospital appointments, plus students coming and going, so an element of additional caution.
No news from our schools yet re the partial return to secondary from 15th March, but I know my son is looking forward to seeing his pals.
Did here, health board/council.
No it didn't.
19 council areas - the majority - will see no change to their levels this week.
I am pleased to say that from the start of next week - assuming no significant deterioration in the situation before then - two areas will move down from level 3 to level 2.
However, 11 local authorities will from 6pm on Friday, for a strictly limited period, move from level 3 to level 4.
swavis
Full MemberThat’s a very good point. If there were a 1000 people with only flu like symptoms but nobody requiring hospital treatment why would there be the need to lockdown?
Depends. Is it going to stay at that level or are those 1000 going to infect 3000 people and cause hospital stays? Are they going to avoid hospital but suffer longterm long covid effects?
Hospital stays have obviously attracted a lot of attention because that's what breaks the NHS and it was very near to breaking. But they're not the only thing we should look at, they were just the only priority at the time
There is new stuff coming out about the guidance and levels in Scotland with a hope of relaxing quicker but also using tighter criteria
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56237471
Still not convinced Squirrelking,we were barely above the shire in infection rates. And this
and we have assessed what all of that might mean for hospital and intensive care capacity.
Our intensive care is Dundee.
There is new stuff coming out about the guidance and levels in Scotland with a hope of relaxing quicker but also using tighter criteria
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56237471/blockquote >
Yeh tjagain, that's what I'd been looking at
The level 3 band there seems very wide now... Or, put it a different way it covers very different situations, 50-150 is a pretty massive difference in "performance".
Considering that the decline in cases right now is very slow, am I being fair to say it's basically indefinite tier 3 or 4 for most of the country?
It can never be on one strict numerical value. You could have a contained outbreak in one nursing home that could skew the figures enough to exceed a Tier threshold and you wouldn't want to lock down a whole regions for that.
Considering that the decline in cases right now is very slow, am I being fair to say it’s basically indefinite tier 3 or 4 for most of the country?
Yes.
As someone (I can't remember the name offhand) speaking for the Scottish hospitality industry said a week or so ago, all the Scottish government have done is produce a road map into another lockdown.
Here's my pessimistic projection.
People need to calm their brains for a wee bit yet. 😆
[img] 
[/img]
April is the good news month. It's no April yet. 😆
ps think we're actually about 75 per 100k 7 day average the day.
under 5% positive test rate as well which is a critical indicator
Hospitality cannot recover from another lost summer and people are going to stop being compliant if restrictions are not removed.
Also May holyrood elections
tjagain
Full Member
under 5% positive test rate as well which is a critical indicator
people read that as if just under 5 is a good thing, the WHO when they mentioned it said that over 5% and you are out of control. Not that 4.5% is a good thing!
Hospitality cannot recover from another lost summer and people are going to stop being compliant if restrictions are not removed.
If we go too early that's exactly what will happen. Slow and steady is the key here. There's a real danger of making a pigs ear of it if they bow to demands or if people decide that's it done. We're literally a month away.
Im sure you are right. MY point merely was that there are other considerations not just the pandemic ones. april is fine. Get to july and problems arise
Scotland’s positivity rate is over inflated and can’t really be used as a measure.
For some reason, SG ignore all mass testing and LFT from the data which skews the positivity rate to a higher level.
You can see this quite simply by comparing it to England’s.
lateral flow tests need to be ignored completely. a total waste of time. ONly being use because we bought billions of the useless things. Even in skilled hands the false negatives are far too high. In unskilled hands useless.
Parents in S1-S3 will (understandably) want Maths & English as a priority,
I think it probably matters more what the distance learning options is like locally - our Maths is pretty good and I’d be happy for it to continue. English on the other hand is crap (as is French).
Also May holyrood elections
Are the SNP really going to risk having the pubs shut across the majority of the central belt? Vote Labour and we'll open the pubs, backed up with suggestions the SNP are just using Covid as an excuse to push their anti-alcohol agenda could be a vote winner.
tjagain
Full Member
Im sure you are right. MY point merely was that there are other considerations not just the pandemic ones. april is fine. Get to july and problems arise
get to july and even I'll be vaccinated, maybe even twice. Happy days.
Going slow is correct at the moment. I've had a laugh about the election to, but timelines are entirely co-incidental that we should open up just before then.
I've been critical, I think their approach is correct this time.
Gribs
Full Member
Also May holyrood electionsAre the SNP really going to risk having the pubs shut across the majority of the central belt?
They won't if people keep the heid, cause the trajectories have the pubs open before the election, so it's not really an election issue.
Vote Labour and we’ll open the pubs
But what happens then if the rates start to rise again a month later ?. Blame the SNP 😕 Blame someone else 😕 or come out with yet more facts and figures and ignore the obvious correlation.
Same happened at Christmas. Papers were full of people claiming this and that and screaming that they should be allowed to ignore the virologists and meet up for Christmas dinner. January comes around and the rates soared. Certainly didnt hear much about how the relaxation of the lockdown had a clear connection, no it was a case of looking for someone else to blame.
Even if the rate drops to zero tomorrow, it would be very prudent to continue lockdown for at least 2, maybe 3 months more. Just to make sure.
Are the SNP really going to risk having the pubs shut across the majority of the central belt? Vote Labour and we’ll open the pubs, backed up with suggestions the SNP are just using Covid as an excuse to push their anti-alcohol agenda could be a vote winner.
It might be a vote winner for people who own/work in the pub or desperately want to be back in pubs - but I’m pretty sure that there’s plenty of people who want other Liberty back who really don’t care about pubs. In my experience plenty of those crazy types were never going to be snp voters anyway. I think you also need to have a pretty blinkered view to think snp are so anti alcohol that they are using the pandemic to close pubs - it’s hardly a uniquely Scottish approach.
Disappointing to see a few areas still wrestling to get numbers down.
https://stirling.gov.uk/news/2021/march-2021/mobile-testing-units-to-visit-plean-and-cowie/
Are the SNP really going to risk having the pubs shut across the majority of the central belt?
They were quick enough to shut Aberdeen down when there was a spike here, yet they did Hee Haw when there was a similar spike in weegie land.
In answer to your question, No
I may be misremembering- but the Aberdeen issue was directly linked to pubs, whilst T&T was linking glasgow to private parties (which were already illegal in glasgow - the shut indoor mixing earlier) . Closing pubs will only increase private parties.
Disappointing to see a few areas still wrestling to get numbers down.
Jeanne Freeman was discussing the setting up of community testing units in 22 (or maybe 23) areas around the country in the Wednesday lunchtime briefing.
They want to try and get asymptomatic cases to self-isolate.
I wonder if the Kent variant leads to more asymptomatic cases and this is one of the reasons why the fall in case numbers is declining?
Still not convinced Squirrelking
Jesus, be unconvinced all you like, fact is you're wrong. Tier levels were down to local authority NOT health board.
The Scottish Government announced today that a new five-tier system of coronavirus restrictions will be introduced to help curb the spread of Covid-19.
Unlike the previous restrictions which affected health board areas, the new alert system will take into account the prevalence of the virus in each of Scotland’s 32 local authority areas.
https://www.inverclyde.gov.uk/covid-19/daily-briefings
Jesus, be unconvinced all you like, fact is you’re wrong. Tier levels were down to local authority NOT health board.
To be fair, you're both correct.
It was initially health board area, then they changed it to local authority area
@poly yes a pub https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53627801 one foreign oil worker whilst awaiting the result of his test went for a bevvy.
Closing pubs will only increase private parties
Eh? so why aren't pubs open now because that's what's happening now in every city/town in Scotland.
It was initially health board area, then they changed it to local authority area
I know, but we're talking about the last lockdown which started in November (for some of us anyway).
I think. Unless Duckman isn't.
bruneep
Full MemberThey were quick enough to shut Aberdeen down when there was a spike here, yet they did Hee Haw when there was a similar spike in weegie land.
Yep, because they had track-and-trace that worked and so they were able to find out exactly what had caused the spike and acted on it, rather than just having to throw around random restrictions and assuming that what worked in Aberdeen would also work in Glasgow.
I am talking about being kept in the same tier as Dundee in October when they came in because of Ninewells being the hospital we would be taken to. At the time we were bent right out of shape that there was 100 feet difference in health boards. If that has changed for the move back to tiers in April then happy days.
No idea, but as per above it never had anything to do with health board. FWIW North Ayrshire has no emergency hospital (we share between Crosshouse and sometimes Inverclyde) and had completely independent restrictions from Inverclyde and East Ayrshire.
@poly yes a pub https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53627801 one foreign oil worker whilst awaiting the result of his test went for a bevvy.
But it takes two to tango (or many people to cause an outbreak). Clearly that shows why pubs should be closed - one person being a dick causes significant disease spread.
Closing pubs will only increase private parties
Eh? so why aren’t pubs open now because that’s what’s happening now in every city/town in Scotland.
I don't claim to completely follow the logic - but that was how I remember it being justified. I don't know if the footage showed weegie pubs had learned from Aberdeen and were enforcing rules better? Possibly there's a demographic difference between those flouting the rules at home and those who insist on going to pubs if they are open - and thus the vulnerability of the users.
I see quite varying standards of covid compliance from different places and I don't think its as simple as what the place sells. If it were up-to-me retail, pubs, cafes, hairdressers etc would not be lumped into categories with all their neighbouring vaguely similar businesses. Each would adopt its own "covid secure" approach and be scored on that (and open to secret shopping / unannounced visits) - and in each tier you'd let sites with particular star ratings open - an incentive for sensible precautions, and then places that won't or can't enforce it get shut whilst those who can keep customers apart, well ventilated etc can stay open. You need a lot more EHO - but we have had months to work this shit out.
No idea, but as per above it never had anything to do with health board.
It did - I think in October, before the more granular levels.
https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-update-parliament-29-october/
It did apply to Health Board areas!!! See the FMs statement on 29 October:
"In recent weeks that guidance has applied to health board areas. But from Monday, it will apply at local authority level."
FM statement on 21 October:
https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-update-first-ministers-speech-21-october/
"Finally, we continue to advise people very strongly who live in these Central Belt areas, not to travel outside the health board area that they live in, if they do not need to do so."
Aberdeen was put in to a lockdown of similar severity to the current one after the pubs incident with a cases per 100k of around 20. Some locations in the borders and dumfries & galloway were treated similarly.
If track and trace worked so well why was a full city lockdown required in Aberdeen? They didn't just act on pubs it was a full no visiting homes, no leaving the city, shops & pubs closed.
Frankly I watched agape that Glasgow and other areas didn't get shutdown in the same manner as there cases soared.
I don't disagree with the need to lockdown Aberdeen and the other areas, it was needed to suppress the spread of the virus but the lack of willingness from the Scottish Government to do the same in the central belt when it was required was shocking.
To say that the same wouldn't have worked in Glasgow and other places is clearly wrong given that they never got their cases back under control until they are starting to now because they have been in the same level of lockdown that Aberdeen was put into back in August for the past 2 months.
It did apply to Health Board areas!!! See the FMs statement on 29 October:
“In recent weeks that guidance has applied to health board areas. But from Monday, it will apply at local authority level.”
FM statement on 21 October:
https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-update-first-ministers-speech-21-october/
“Finally, we continue to advise people very strongly who live in these Central Belt areas, not to travel outside the health board area that they live in, if they do not need to do so.”
FFS THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT I SAID! The last lockdown ie. November was LA based and not health board as it was previously! Honestly this place...
Nice to see the rangers fans acting with impunity
https://www.glasgow.gov.uk/forms/webcam/Webcam.aspx
And why not?
Police said no arrests had been made after crowds of supporters gathered outside gathered at Ibrox on Saturday following the team's win against St Mirren.
Nice to see the rangers fans acting with impunity
can only hope they catch it.
And why not?
Indeed. The reality is a riot would ensue if the police actively tried to disperse them or stop them getting to Ibrox or George Square.