It is getting reported in Germany this morning that the US is suspending cyber operations against Russia.
@ernielynch I'm not sure anyone provided a link to the Burisma accusations.
Many thanks, I was aware though of the basis of allegations behind the formal impeachment enquiry. The only thing I wasn't certain about was whether or not Zelensky had helped Trump to get off the hook, I thought he had and a quick internet search suggested that was indeed the case.
And it was on that basis that I suggested that Trump probably owes him a big favour rather than a grudge. Impeachment enquiries are after all serious processes. My comment however got twisted into me suggesting that Trump is an honourable person.
https://time.com/5686305/zelensky-ukraine-denies-trump-pressure/
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sat beside President Donald Trump on Wednesday as he denied that Trump pressured him to investigate former Vice President and current 2020 presidential candidate Joe Biden’s son for his work in the country.
Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Zelensky declared that he had not been pressured during the July phone call, and insisted that he does not want to interfere in a foreign election.
"I think you read everything. I think you read text,” Zelensky said to the gathered reporters on Wednesday. “I’m sorry, but I don’t want to be involved to democratic, open elections of U.S.A. No, you heard that we had good phone call. It was normal, we spoke about many things. I think, and you read it, that nobody pushed me.”
"So no pressure,” Trump added.
It must have all been music to Trump's ears and it undoubtedly helped him.
Anyway I think the only "discussion" that some people want to have is to discuss just how beastly and orange Trump is, and anyone who wants to take the discussion beyond that level is going to have their work cut out. So right now in the wake of the Zelensky White House affair it's probably best that I don't get too involved and just let people get on with it.
It is getting reported in Germany this morning that the US is suspending cyber operations against Russia.
And probably starting them against it's former European allies, maybe in a joint effort with their new buddies in the Kremlin?
Ernie. Thats just flat out wrong. Come on. You are better than that usually
All the evidence is there and factual. Zelenskyy was just tring to curry favour with Trump but its ckear obvious and documented.
Trump hates Zelenskyy fir refusing to fabricate evidence on Biden. Well established.
Im really suprised at you on this one
Zelenskyy was just tring to curry favour with Trump
Thanks. That was exactly my point of course.
The only difference appears to be that you think you know what goes on in Trump's mind and consequently you know precisely who he likes and who he hates, despite the fact that the only certainty about Trump is his famous unpredictability.
Anyway I'll let you get on with informing everyone exactly how Trump thinks and what his motives are, something which seems to elude political pundits worldwide.
If only global political commentators registered themselves on an obscure UK MTB forum they would be so much better informed, eh? 😉
You said trump owed zelenskyy. Untrue. Trump hates him and this is well documented and can be seen in the way trump treated him
It is getting reported in Germany this morning that the US is suspending cyber operations against Russia.
I saw this mentioned in a few places last week (including the Rest Is Politics podcast) but not in the mainstream. Gizmodo ran this yesterday:
The big problem is that without the US all f-35, Apache, trident and god knows what else doesn't fly. So embedded is the US military industrial complex in much of the western defence system. Tellng them to do one is not an option unless you consider us effectively defenceless for at least a few years an option. That's why diplomacy, however distasteful is required
Needs a little more context.
Clearly Europe has a defence industry.
In fact much of the American kit you list above has components made in Europe.
These components take time to design and replace. i.e. without European contributions, American kit is not going to made either, until an American replacement can be cooked up. In short, America also depends on UK & Europe.
Also, neither America nor Europe would be defenceless. Existing kit will work. European operators and maintenance for that kit exists.
But I agree a soft pivot away from US supplied kit will be favoured if America continues to pull away. Contracts will favour more local top tier manufacturers. The obvious example of Tempest to add and eventually replace F35 is already quoted above. Leonardo (IT, developing) and Eurocopter have equivalent kit to the Apache. Don't know about Trident. The switch will not be instant though.
Zelensky didn't help himself, either - his body language and responses fed perfectly the narrative that the GOP were looking for. He should have been better coached by his staff - they should've known (since inauguration, since Munich, since forever) exactly what these guys are going to be like and thus to try and laugh off their aggression rather than confront it head on. I'm not blaming Zelensky, not at all, but they should've prepared him better.
I don't think anyone (possibly even Trump and Valance themselves) knows "exactly what these guys are going to be like"! It was unprecedented behaviour in the oval office in front of TV cameras. Perhaps that is what happens behind the scenes that we never see, but the idea that Zelensky could have been coached to be better without capitulating to Putin's lapdog is laughable. I'm not sure that laughing off aggression and misinformation is how anyone should treat Trump or Valance.
The f35 is an issue for other countries but afaik as we are a tier 1 partner we have the ability to generate the codes and also can do our own long term maintenance.
According to Bill Sweetman (who is a huge critic of the F35):
The F-35 is particularly vulnerable because pretty much everything on the aircraft is run through the Integrated Core Processors, and the higher functions of the ICP are contained in the Mission Data File (MDF), and the MDFs for non-Israeli export aircraft are updated in US-controlled labs
https://hushkit.substack.com/p/how-to-leave-your-abusive-international
I don't know what "US-controlled" means, but I'm sure every F35 buyer is now frantically making plans to sever dependence on the U.S.
Zelensky completely backed Trump's claims that nothing improper had happened with regards to phone calls that Trump had made to him.
The impeachment allegations relied on the claim that Trump had made improper requests to Zelensky. Zelensky helped to get Trump off the hook by insisting that Trump had done nothing improper.It must have all been music to Trump's ears and it undoubtedly helped him.
TLDR:
President Zelensky played President Trump in July 2019 for a coveted visit to the White House and a meeting with Trump. He couldn't be pressured because he already knew that both matters had been concluded. The impeachment verdict was influenced by the Republican majority in Congress, rather than evidence from Zelensky, and was voted against along party lines.
Trump wanted Zelensky to look into two things: Ukraine being responsible for the 2016 interference in US elections and allegations against Hunter Biden that had already been investigated by Ukraine in 2014-15.
By 2019, when Zelensky was first elected, everyone knew that Russia had circulated disinformation that Ukraine was responsible for the 2016 election interference and that the Burisma investigation (linked above by piemonster) had not found any evidence that Hunter Biden had broken Ukraine's law.
This piece is by an impeachment whistle blower, Alexander Vindman. Vindman was born in Soviet Ukraine and fled with his family to the US at the age of 3. He worked his way through the US military and earned a place on the National Security Council. He was listening to the Trump-Zelensky phone call as it happened.
"Meanwhile, Zelensky, whose comedy background made him good at reading his audience, started kvelling about the time he’d stayed in Trump Tower in New York City; about the Ukrainian friends he had in the United States; about all the American oil that Ukraine was planning to buy; and about the prize: how much he’d like to visit the White House. And he assured Trump that he would pursue a transparent inquiry into Hunter Biden. That was enough.
At last the president became friendly, very friendly: “Whenever you would like to come to the White House,” he said, “feel free to call. Give us a date, and we’ll work that out. I look forward to seeing you.” https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2021/08/trump-ukraine-call-impeachment-vindman/619617/
100% correct, but the key difference is, that in a global context, it doesn't really make an awful lot of difference.Actually for the average resident in the UK it is more relevant. Turn off your TV, stop buying newspapers, reading internet fora... a crazy man in the Whitehouse does have the potential for a brit to die in a nuclear war, but a crazy man in Downing St will affect tax, services, mortgage rates, healthcare as well as our defences etc. People are fickle, I wonder how this has shifted:
since SKS went to visit Trump and then hosted European leaders to find a path forward. Its difficult to imagine Nige (or Kemi!) having been able to do those.
The switch will not be instant though.
You don't need to actually change the entire platforms to send an economic message. How will US defence contractors react (and put pressure on the administration) if their orders from Europe dry up?
What makes no sense to me is that last week trump was complaining that the EU was "created to screw the US", and he seems to be doing a pretty good job of making them less dependant on the US and more likely to cooperate together to be a "European Superpower".
Just remember though there's only another 1709 days of this assuming both parties manage to sort our their nomination process to find good candidates.
Just remember though there's only another 1709 days of this assuming both parties manage to sort our their nomination process to find good candidates.
Europe has long since needed a continent wide defense force and to let America go its own way
It's never been serious because certain states within Europe wanted Russia to be included. When you look at the number of vetoes that Russia throws around in the UN the idea was impractical.
The balance has shifted considerably since then, although there are still EU members that would usurp a European defensive alliance as they do the EU and NATO.
Actually for the average resident in the UK it is more relevant.
Hence my use of the words "in a global context"...
🤔
The obvious example of Tempest to add and eventually replace F35 is already quoted above.
Should we dust off the Harriers as our aircraft carriers only work with F35's!
Probably going to have to rework the carriers for catapult launches.
I can't believe gchq wouldn't have an effective work around for the f35 though
Should we dust off the Harriers as our aircraft carriers only work with F35's!
Just do what the MoD loves to do and bolt a few extra bits on, it'll all add to the carriers' record of reliability.
Extra bit of deck, a catapult, a nuclear power plant to provide steam for the catapult, what can possibly go wrong?
It should be ready by next week and definitely won't go over-budget 🙂
There are also some disasters like the F35
Of the many things you could say about the F35 "disaster" is not one of them. it's perhaps the most successful new service aircraft there has ever been, and it is by far the most successful 5th gen aircraft
I can't believe gchq wouldn't have an effective work around for the f35 though
The last time this was tried was in 1995. The MoD bought Boeing Chinook HC3 helicopters and decided to make their own flight control software because Boeing was too costly
That batch of Chinooks wasn't used operationally for 20 years at which point they were modified to mk5 standard and the cockpits went fully digital, oh and Boeing did the work, a waste of £1bn+ IIRC
Google Project Julius
I can't believe gchq wouldn't have an effective work around for the f35 though
Sat what now?
The intelligence agency has been cooking up a 6th gen fighter in the basement?
How did we not know this?
How will US defence contractors react (and put pressure on the administration) if their orders from Europe dry up?
"So... I hear you guys are building your own helicopter/tank/boat - we make weapons/control/electric/armament systems for them..."
Should we dust off the Harriers as our aircraft carriers only work with F35's!
Have to buy them back first... from America... then rebuild them...
All sold in 2011. And now scrapped by the Marines. I think they have a replacement jump jet?
Of the many things you could say about the F35 "disaster" is not one of them. it's perhaps the most successful new service aircraft there has ever been.
It's a disaster if its advanced systems are exploited by an adversary due to US policy, or if a now seemingly untrustworthy supplier threatens to pull the plug on software in future (less of an issue for UK.perhaps, but a big one for our allies in Europe). Or if the huge cost degrades other areas of defence spending for small countries. I know it's an extremely capable aircraft, but in the current environment I have doubts I over the wisdom of relying on it for European defence.
Just remember though there's only another 1709 days of this assuming both parties manage to sort our their nomination process to find good candidates.
He'd have to get through the nomination process and the democrats propose someone even less palletable. Only 6 VP's have even gone from VP to President (without the death/resignation of the president), at least 2 of them after a break between the VP and running for president. Its difficult to say what you will do differently if you are currently sitting in power right now. I'll get worried about that if they don't get a kicking at the midterms.
My 2p worth. (May have been covered before)
The Russian economy is in a terrible state, only thing holding it together is war production and a bit of gas & oil.
The west is less reliant on that now so post conflict it won't go back to what it was.
I think, Trump/USA are doing a deal that suits them and inserts them as the preferred partner going forwards in - regenerating Russia. This is worth billions and stops China from doing the same. Which also stops China from taking strategic land in Russia that would threaten USA. All of the Western companies that were taken over or left Russia will go back, Trump is hailed a hero at home.
Hence throwing Z under the bus, making Ukraine his fault and a European Problem.
During the design of the carriers, it was always meant to be possible to modify them to have "cats and traps" installed.
During the build, they wanted to change route and go the traditional route, however all the spaces that had been earmarked for the equipment had been filled with other stuff and it wasn't possible.
This information was given to me by a good friend who was a Naval Architect on the project.
It's a moot point anyway, they couldn't go to war as we don't have sufficient destroyers to protect them. The same destroyers who are now extremely vulnerable to drone swarm attacks.
How will US defence contractors react (and put pressure on the administration) if their orders from Europe dry up?
US defence contractors are the main beneficiaries of the military aid that's been sent to Ukraine so far, the US government isn't just handing wads of cash to Ukraine to spend on whatever they want but is paying American companies that support well paid highly skilled American workers. Trump either doesn't realise this or simply doesn't care
. Trump either doesn't realise this or simply doesn't care
Well despite presumably not reading this thread I am sure that the US president is kept well informed of such matters. And it is not a case of not caring it is a case of very different priorities.
Trump has bigger fish to fry. His big obsession has for some considerable time, and with some justification, been China.
Trump isn't much bothered about Russia and Europe, he sees the Pacific, not the Atlantic, as now the global centre of gravity economically, and Europe has been demoted a few notches in the United States hierarchy of geopolitical interests.
Despite all the rhetoric Trump wants to disengage the United States from Europe and the Middle East so it can focus on the Pacific and the one and only country which is actually a real and genuine threat to US global dominance.
Hence the fact that the $50 billion annual cuts which the Pentagon are proposing won't necessarily be a cut US military expenditure but much will be simply redirected.
https://www.npr.org/2025/02/20/nx-s1-5303947/hegseth-trump-defense-spending-cuts
The Pentagon has proposed cutting 8% of its budget in each of the next five years — amounting to some $50 billion each year — but prioritized 17 areas from drones and submarines to military assistance for the southern border as well as increased funding for the U.S. command that focuses on China.
Ukraine is of no importance to Trump beyond it being a source of rare earths and he probably sees Zelensky as someone more likely to be compliant to US needs than Putin so I deal will probably eventually happen.
Maybe Putin should offer his mineral resources to China? Of course there are a thousand and one reasons why that would be a bad idea and I'm not serious but...
It would almost be worth it to see Trump's orange swede explode in apoplectic rage! Especially if Zelensky wore his finest Saville Row suit for the handshake with Xi on Chinese state media!
Maybe Putin should offer his mineral resources to China? Of course there are a thousand and one reasons why that would be a bad idea and I'm not serious but...
It would almost be worth it to see Trump's orange swede explode in apoplectic rage! Especially if Zelensky wore his finest Saville Row suit for the handshake with Xi on Chinese state media!
Assuming you meant Zelensky should offer his minerals to China?
I mean, he could do a deal with his European/Western allies that would benefit all of us and make us less reliant on potentially hostile foreign regimes....
Assuming you meant Zelensky should offer his minerals to China?
Doh! Yes.
China doesn't need to buy rare earths off anyone, they have more than anyone else and they export the stuff, including to the United States.
I guess they could buy some if the price was low, enough in the same way as Saudi Arabia buys Russian oil to help them get round sanctions, but I can't imagine that it would be a great deal for anyone other than China.
I know. As I said, I wasn't being serious 🙂
but in the current environment I have doubts I over the wisdom of relying on it for European defence.
Given that there are currently 12 operators in Europe its a bit late for doubt.
An interesting article imo. Although be warned that it doesn't paint Trump as a complete idiot who is largely motivated by personal grudges, so perhaps not for everyone 😉
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/mar/03/europe-trump-ukraine
and Europe has been demoted a few notches in the United States hierarchy of geopolitical interests.
Trump doesn't have geo-political interests, he is solely interested in things that will either make him personally richer or poorer. That's the sole motivator for anything and everything he says and does, and he will either back or reject US foreign policy based on his own personal interests how ever longstanding. He doesn't like wind generated electricity because of the Scottish plan to install them near his golf courses for example. His interest in Panama is because of his exposure to financial risk there in a real estate deal that in turn sells apartments to rich Russian oligarchs, (hence cosying up to Putin) which in turn is why he's offering to sell them US citizenship for $5M by way as some sort of 'compensation'
You have to translate everything now into "what's in it for Trump personally". That's going to be what drives US foreign policy for the next 4 years.
Given that there are currently 12 operators in Europe its a bit late for doubt.
A significant number are yet to be delivered. I don't know what the legal/contractual rules are, but maybe they could cut their losses and cancel the remainder? I accept I'm ignorant of the legal niceties and that may not be possible.
An interesting article imo.
Fails IMO, like many of these sorts of articles because it treats both Trump and Putin as if they are rational actors with negotiable positions that are sensible and grounded in reality. When all the evidence so far is that non of those things are true for either of those people.
An interesting article imo.
Fails IMO, like many of these sorts of articles because it treats both Trump and Putin as if they are rational actors with negotiable positions that are sensible and grounded in reality. When all the evidence so far is that non of those things are true for either of those people.
I think Trumps 'long game' if there is such a thing, for him, is to fracture Europe, and divvy up the spoils between him and his mate, Putin.
I think it was pretty obvious when Trump and Vance basically held Ukraine hostage AGAIN, and called Zelensky a 'dictator' and accused him of starting a war...and basically asked him to sell his country off for *checks notes* sweet F.A.
Putin will obvioulsly have different ideas about how 'equal' that split will be between Russia and the USA, but Trump is not a shrewd enough operator to realise that.
I don't know what the legal/contractual rules are, but maybe they could cut their losses and cancel the remainder?
And replace with what? The obvious candidates are Rafle Typhoon and Grippen, which the F-35 is meant to replace or leap-frog in capability. With the cost of developing these sorts of planes they are decades in the planning and building, and they're pretty much a "must be right first time" project. The history of European collaboration on these sorts of airplane projects is not a happy one...Jaguar, Tornado, Eurocopter (The Rafle literally only exists because the French dropped out of the Typhoon project)
Fails IMO, like many of these sorts of articles because it treats both Trump and Putin as if they are rational actors with negotiable positions that are sensible and grounded in reality.
Why did you read it? I specifically put in a proviso.......be warned that it doesn't paint Trump as a complete idiot who is largely motivated by personal grudges, so perhaps not for everyone.
Btw what do you mean by "these sorts of articles"? It seems a rather strange thing to say.
Do you mean articles by people with a certain expertise and who understand Trump beyond "he's a complete idiot and greedy and that's all you need to know", such as the author here who is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace?
And replace with what? The obvious candidates are Rafle Typhoon and Grippen, which the F-35 is meant to replace or leap-frog in capability.
Any of the above? I'm out of my depth a little here as regards fighter aircraft and I think from your previous posts you might have professional or other specialist interest/knowledge? So I will defer to you, but I am genuinely interested.
Aren't aircraft like the Grippen far more suited for European operations anyway? Due to ability to operate from dispersed sites, shorter or improvised runways and with a very small maintenance team? I understand that the F35 requires far more complex airfield infrastructure, technical support and logistics. All of which are going to be very vulnerable to drone attacks in any future war.
I know the Russians are supposedly developing a 6th gen fighter, but if goes the way of stuff like their Armata MBT, it'll be a paper tiger. Aren't the European aircraft you list a match for current Russian aircraft?
The power of the F-35 is in situational awareness, it can "talk" with other F-35's and intelligence assets to deliver weapons to the right place at the right time. It is however incredibly complex and maintenance heavy, if something needs fixed under the aircraft skin you need to glue it back together again to make the aircraft stealthy again which then takes a couple of days to cure and become serviceable.
The risk with the F-35 is that you have to log in to use it, literally like a computer, and guess who holds the keys to that.
I can absolutely see a pan-European 6th gen fighter program, yes the previous ones were fraught, but then so is the F-35 which is also a collab product. But we're talking 10-15 years development here (at least) before getting something operational.
