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Not a massive fan of Anthony Scaramucci, he makes my teeth itch much of the time. But the second half of this was a very good insight into traditional Republican thinking Vs Trump's version of Republican thinking. I.e. getting behind the crack pot persona and understanding how the Trump administration led (arguably not the right word!) the nation in his time in office.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/1XzmUtVvoMSa9P7bH7ca6P?si=C3nYeS_hTwSjMBIXgrSksA
On healthcare, it’s part of the reward package - get a job offer, then off for a medical to work out how much of an employer contribution goes towards healthcare and then the remainder is remuneration. But like the UK, some industries are becoming heavily reliant on immigrant workers because US citizens are too costly to deploy.
Trump's relationship with Project 2025 is proving an interesting watch. Something he's prone to do when things aren't going well is he starts to reject the help and advice of his helpers and advisors and just starts free styling and shooting from the lip (which is exactly what he's helpers and advisors spend all their time trying to stop him from doing so things don't go badly)
So he's started telling everyone "he doesn't know anything about Project 2025" and has even started to get his crowds to boo them. They pretty much are his campaign however, and as well as a 900 page document detailing their plans for, erm, facism - they've set up a sort of MAGA Linkdin to recruit and coach loyal henchmen to put in place when they enact that plan which basic involves purging the Whitehouse. government and civil services of anyone who isn't Trump-loyal, so that the 900 page plan for fascism can be implemented without any inconvenient resistance.
They also have an induction video for all theses would-be / soon to be MAGA drones. One that seems to suggest that if Trump applied for one of these jobs he wouldn't get it 🙂
https://youtube.com/shorts/51JKSpmjSko?si=H4rRxJaJXaEWimfz
Of course they don't want him in the Whitehouse, they just want him to lie down so they can use him as a doormat to get themselves in the Whitehouse.
Blue collar republicans like national health care. They just don’t know it’s national health care and think they are protecting the limited public health benefits they have by campaigning against “Obama care” etc.
What was the other group that did this in his previous campaign and ego trip? They managed to get a swathe of their team into positions of power and have been creaming off money and power ever since...seems to be the same situation just less subtle!
Q anon?
What was the other group that did this in his previous campaign and ego trip? They managed to get a swathe of their team into positions of power and have been creaming off money and power ever since…seems to be the same situation just less subtle!
Jones Day - a team of lawyers who made their money/reputation representing plucky underdogs like the tobacco industry, opioid manufacturers, guns, oil - you know, the good guys - in cases against government regulators seeking to mitigate the harms those companies subject on US citizens . They decided to get into political campaigning at a time when Trump was launching his initial nomination (probably not at the time expecting, or even wanting to actually get nominated). They decided to back / support Trumps campaign early on becuase they could see he was an empty vessel which made him the perfect vehicle for their own plans. Once he was in the Whitehouse they got themselves appointed to various Whitehouse posts (becuase Trump had no idea who to appoint) and used those posts to make numerous legal appointments in the courts - many of the jobs for life - that they packed with other Jones Day employees. Then they seemed to just quietly moonwalk away.
Now as a law firm they're in a unique position to be able to represent their clients in courts where the judge ruling on the case owes them their job, has probably worked for Jones Day before, and if it isn't a lifetime appointment, will know theres a job for them Jones Day in future.
What they particularly aimed to do was pack the legal system with judges who were antithetical to federal authority, aiming to undermine the states role in moderating the excesses and exploitative actions of corporations (ie - their clients)
They also have an induction video for all theses would-be / soon to be MAGA drones. One that seems to suggest that if Trump applied for one of these jobs he wouldn’t get it 🙂
I wouldn't be hugely surprised if they tried to reframe Trump as a "freedom fighter" and quash all his convictions... Or at least, i reckon that's what trump thinks (and the Jan 6 nutters!)
Even though Trump only seems to think in insults the only thing he cares about is being flattered. He currently has a strange bee in his bonnet about a picture of Kamala Harris on the cover of Time magazine. Seems to bother him that it's too beautiful and he makes weird comparisons between it and famous movie stars, and between it and his wife. And now he's decided he has to announce that he's better looking than Kamala (and therefore better looking than his wife and all of the most beautiful movie stars) His issue in particular is that the cover is a drawing rather than a photograph and is therefore seemingly flattering to her. The only thing that matters is people being flattering to him.
So I've knocked this together - hopefully it'll cheer him up.
This showed up on Flipboard a little while ago, and it is, apparently, real. I can’t help but think it would make a nice Thanksgiving gift for Vance, for private moments when he hasn’t got a couch handy…
https://gizmodo.com/youll-never-be-able-to-unsee-the-trumpy-trout-2000489920
Hopefully this will link up ok, the slight smile on the female newsreader’s face hints that she saw what was happening on the monitor, even if he didn’t. I just love the wonderfully casual way the lad with the phone acted!
https://twitter.com/acyn/status/1826724048002572621?s=61
Can't stop giggling at this. Needs the sound on.
https://twitter.com/CalltoActivism/status/1827097908727996809
That is wonderful
She really has got under his skin and he is losing the plot nicely
Harris’s convention speech sparks live rant from outraged Trump
Kamala Harris’s Democratic national convention speech provoked a torrent of outrage from Donald Trump as the former US president fired off a volley of ripostes, rebuttals and angry calls to TV stations.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/23/trump-reaction-harris-dnc-speech
They have to be careful not to focus on Trump too much IMO, keep it substantive with just some throw away comments about Trump, he will never respond to the substance of the speech just the little digs, make the Streisend affect work for them and letting Trump defend himself against few small digs just makes him look an even smaller pathetic excuse for a person.
Interesting to see what effect the insane Kennedy dropping out of the race will have, I guess most of his supporters will follow him to Trump, but that is far from guaranteed. I do think it was timed to take the headlines away from the democrat momentum that has been building, not sure it has worked out as well as they had hoped, the momentum is still with the dems and Trump is looking a bigger loser with every word he says.
RFK jnr has a fake tan that makes the blathering gibbon look pale.
She really has got under his skin and he is losing the plot nicely
Trump is so thin-skinned and insecure that the thing that seems to really needle him is being ridiculed. The fact that it’s a woman of colour (who’s about a million times more intelligent than him) doing it is only adding to his apoplexy. It’s truly a joy to behold
That Silence of the Lambs video is truly unhinged. What on earth is he blathering on about?
I know we’ve said it a thousand times but I still just can’t believe that anyone in their right mind can look at Trump, listen to his insane ramblings and think ‘yep, that’s who I want leading this country while in possession of the nuclear codes’
Mind you, I said the same about Boris Johnson. And Liz Truss.
The interesting thing with the RFK endorsement of Trump is it came in trade for a promise of a job in trumps administration if he wins…. But whats more interesting is that a week or so prior to that RFK had approached the Harris campaign with exactly the same deal - pull out of the race and endorse in exchange for a promise of whitehouse job in a Harris administration. He then apparently got narked because ghosted him and didn’t repliy to his email.
so - in effect RFK endorses Trump as his second choice in what is now a two horse race
I doubt it will make much difference. The number he has is pretty constant , the majority of the rest/undecided are pretty decided on him at least
They have to be careful not to focus on Trump too much IMO, keep it substantive with just some throw away comments about Trump, he will never respond to the substance of the speech just the little digs, make the Streisend affect work for them and letting Trump defend himself against few small digs just makes him look an even smaller pathetic excuse for a person.
I agree. Its all looking very slick and well managed so far so "fingers crossed" they don't eff it up
What the fudge is all that Silence of the Lambs obsession about?
I think he's trying to link that to immigrants coming in and killing people? However, he goes so off of that already off script madness that I can't help think it's Trump that needs institutionalising.
Anyone good at maths and familiar with the US electoral system?
A few days ago, Harris was polling at 47% and Trump at 44%...
But, given the way some states/colleges hold more weight than others, what basic 'national' percentage lead would Harris need to pretty much ensure victory? Is it even possible to suggest such a figure?
Harris has a 3.8% lead nationally currently. Mind boggling that anyone at all would vote Trump, shrug emoge.
Is it even possible to suggest such a figure?
Not really, at least not within 3-4%.
In 2020 Biden got 51% of the popular vote (nationwide), and that gave him 56% of the Electoral College. That was with 66% turnout.
But in 2016, Trump only got 46% of the popular vote and over 57% of the Electoral College. That was on 57% turnout.
So it's a mug's game until the final results arrive and we know how many turnout, and where.
Ref: Wiki US Presidential Election history
A few days ago, Harris was polling at 47% and Trump at 44%…
But, given the way some states/colleges hold more weight than others, what basic ‘national’ percentage lead would Harris need to pretty much ensure victory? Is it even possible to suggest such a figure?
It's all pretty unpredeicalble when things are close becuase different states of different sizes have different numbers of electoral votes. So where the votes are counts differently for different parties and also.
As something to sober folk up - Hillary Clinton had a bigger lead over trump in the poles at this point in the run up to the 2016 election than Kamala has presently, and went on to lose in the electoral college even though she poled a couple of million more votes. The 2004 Bush election is the only Presidential election in the last 32 years that Democrats didn't 'win' in popular vote terms
That sort of range is well within the margin of error for these things (which the polling companies all state, but the press ignore) so I wouldn’t read into at all at the moment
There's a shocking tale on the Rest Is Politics US about Trump phoning Netanyahu and trying to get him to hold off on any peace deal as it would be 'bad for his campaign'
I've seen little about it on this side of the atlantic; surely it can't have any truth in it or it would be another illegal act, not to mention morally repugnant;.
Thanks, interesting.
Just checked the bookies and it's literally 50/50, now, but interestingly, the bookies seem to very much favour the Dems winning the popular vote.
Gawd, the UK flavour of democracy is bad enough, but the US version is nuts...
Hillary Clinton had a bigger lead over trump in the poles at this point in the run up to the 2016 election than Kamala has presently, and went on to lose in the electoral college
Hilary was an unpopular figure even on her own side, and IMO it was the FBI public statement on the emails investigation that sealed her fate. I think it would need something similar for the Trump team to swing the momentum back to them, so lets hope there is nothing hiding in the closet to pin on Harris that would gain traction.
fivethirtyeight.com is the go to place for poll analysis here, and will have everything you need to know.
What UK bookmakers say is inaccurate at best. They want people to put money on an even chance Trump as they'll make their money there
fivethirtyeight.com is the go to place for poll analysis here, and will have everything you need to know.
Last election, yes. This election I'd say no. Nate Silver no longer has anything to do with fivethiryeight and is now doing his own thing.
There’s a shocking tale on the Rest Is Politics US about Trump phoning Netanyahu and trying to get him to hold off on any peace deal as it would be ‘bad for his campaign’
I’ve seen little about it on this side of the atlantic; surely it can’t have any truth in it or it would be another illegal act, not to mention morally repugnant;.
Trump and Netanyahu are the definition of morally repugnant so perfect bedfellows
boomerlives
Free Member
There’s a shocking tale on the Rest Is Politics US about Trump phoning Netanyahu and trying to get him to hold off on any peace deal as it would be ‘bad for his campaign’I’ve seen little about it on this side of the atlantic; surely it can’t have any truth in it or it would be another illegal act, not to mention morally repugnant;.
There's a precedent for that, I only found out about it from the amazing PBS series about the Vietnam war. Nixon torpedoed a peace deal in Vietnam when he was running for president purely to boost his election chances.
Wiki has some good info on it too from memory. Absolutely shocking stuff, inhumane basically. :/
fivethirtyeight.com is the go to place for poll analysis here, and will have everything you need to know.
Last election, yes. This election I’d say no. Nate Silver no longer has anything to do with fivethiryeight and is now doing his own thing
This
It's still wide open in my opinion, but, trump is under pressure now and that is where he will make mistakes. He seems to be under greater scrutiny for his bat shitness, his misogyny and racism. The weird label seems to be sticking, and the Dems seem to be going at him rather than his policy. He doesn't like that at all, and he then lashes back with his Stoopid views on display.
He's been told to stick to policy but his maga crowd reportedly want the trump rantolio at the gigs, so off he goes.
We are way past pointing out his total unsuitableness for office. That's obvious. It's about turning off the support, stopping the finance flowing, making him look a loser.
He looks more like a plonker than ever, and he hates the laughter and ridicule.
There’s a precedent for that, I only found out about it from the amazing PBS series about the Vietnam war. Nixon torpedoed a peace deal in Vietnam when he was running for president purely to boost his election chances
It was even worse than that. He was told by the military that the war was absolutely unwinable and that he had to negotiate a peace, but sacked it off to increase his chances of re-election. God knows how many people died as a result of that decision.
If anyones not watched that Ken Burns series on the Vietnam War then it’s absolutely essential viewing
He’s been told to stick to policy but his maga crowd reportedly want the trump rantolio at the gigs, so off he goes.
Yeah I’d defo wanna see that shit if I was mental enough to support him.
Yeah I’d defo wanna see that shit if I was mental enough to support him
I hadn't really thought about it before but it's basically stand up
The Democrats have won every popular vote but one in the last 32y. Republican politics are simply no longer popular.
The only loss was 2004 when Bush was re-elected riding high on TWOT and the Invasion of Iraq.
Yeah I’d defo wanna see that shit if I was mental enough to support him
I hadn’t really thought about it before but it’s basically stand up
Interestingly Trump has switch from big stadium rallies to some quite small venues. The same shtick in a small space really changes how his material comes across. In the stadiums he has to project his voice more and he adopted this style thats half way between a rousing preacher and someone straining on the toilet.
In a smaller space, without that, he just sounds incredibly glum. The same materials that sounds like a rant in front of a big crowd sound like a list of wimges and petty grievances that even he seems board of hearing
Fox live streamed an hour of this and he just sounds so glum. The most animated thing about it is the folk who drew the short straw to stand behind him shuffling awkwardly swaying from side to side becuase their feet are getting sore
What a rambling mess. "Kamala is so far left it's unbelievable. You've never seen anyone so far left" and "Kamala is Marxist communist. This country isn't ready for a communist president".
That might wash with the hard-core MAGA demographic, but it's the undecided in key states that he needs to convince, and surely they can see how ridiculous he's being?
surely they can see how ridiculous he’s being?
You have more faith in the sophistication of the American electorate than me. The key states might not quite be my-mother"s-mother-is-also-my-duagher full bore redneck, but they are not that far behind.
What UK bookmakers say is inaccurate at best. They want people to put money on an even chance Trump as they’ll make their money there
I'm not sure I follow your logic, the odds on Trump will reflect the odds on Harris so the book will have an overall margin of around 10% in the bookies favour. Most of the bookies seem to think that it's currently a coin toss with each candidate 10/11.
Current betting odds
US Presidential Election Winner
Kamala Harris 1.95
Donald Trump 2
Winning Party
Democrat 1.91
Republicans 1.91
I think if you're going to look at odds it's best to look at the betting markets (betfair, polymarket, etc) since the bookies are only concerned with balancing their book.
I use https://electionbettingodds.com/
I saw a man wearing a trump vance 2024 t shirt in Eastbourne yesterday.
I still can't understand why.
saw a man wearing a trump vance 2024 t shirt in Eastbourne yesterday
A mtb mate who's recently gone down some conspiracy rabbit holes - think started with covid/antivax now BBC & Disney boycotted for wokeness and riots etc he said he thinks UK is headed in wrong direction and if he could heed move his whole extended family to USA as only Trump is protecting western culture or something ?
saw a man wearing a trump vance 2024 t shirt in Eastbourne yesterday
An mtb mate who's recently gone down some conspiracy rabbit holes - think started with covid/antivax now BBC & Disney boycotted for wokeness and riots etc he said he thinks UK is headed in wrong direction and if he could he'd move his whole extended family to USA as only Trump is protecting western culture or something ?
Even Dick Cheney... yes, that Dick Cheney... is voting Democrat to stop Trump.
Mr Cheney said that "in our nation's 248-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump".
"He can never be trusted with power again," he adds.
"As citizens, we each have a duty to put country above partisanship to defend our Constitution. That is why I will be casting my vote for Vice President Kamala Harris."
Is the judge playing it safe and betting that Trump doesn't win so the sentencing will still go ahead? If Trump does get in then I'm assuming all charges will be instantly dropped as he'll pardon himself.
An mtb mate who’s recently gone down some conspiracy rabbit holes – think started with covid/antivax now BBC & Disney boycotted for wokeness and riots etc he said he thinks UK is headed in wrong direction and if he could he’d move his whole extended family to USA as only Trump is protecting western culture or something ?
I had a similar rant from a lad I occasionally ride with last wkend, I'd already heard his anti vaccine/covid was a hoax stuff but he went full on Trump is gonna win by a landslide and will save the western world if 'THEY' don't kill him 1st. I asked him who exactly 'THEY' were? He started ranting about the radical far left and I quickly ended up telling him I didn't actually want to hear his conspiracy theories after all
Is the judge playing it safe and betting that Trump doesn’t win so the sentencing will still go ahead?
He can't appeal it to the Supreme Court until after sentencing so the SC can't bail him out.
Is the judge playing it safe and betting that Trump doesn’t win so the sentencing will still go ahead?
My understanding is that the Court has declared that the Court is apolitical and this close to an election any sentence could be seen as political interference. This seems sensible in that the conviction and sentence will immediately be appealed and, practically-speaking, nothing would happen before the election in that case
Trump seems to benefit from the publicity of the trials, so delaying the sentencing will deny him stealing the news agenda. So probably a good thing. Nice move by the judge 😉
My understanding is that the Court has declared that the Court is apolitical and this close to an election any sentence could be seen as political interference.
I think not least in the sense that Trump's political stock seems to rise with each charge and prosecution, At the moment any act by any court or prosecutor has the same effect, electorally, as putting millions of dollars into Trunp's campaign funds as it give him so much free publicity.
You don't want anything that would motivate sympathy for Trump, however misplaced, in the immediate run-up to election day.
He would definitely want the martyrdom angle in the final few days of the campaign.
Accidentally caught a few clips of Trump on the news while looking for the remote control. Such a terrible human being!
Has he actually done anything good in the world, anything at all which wasn't motivated by hatred or selfishness?
I can summarise 604 pages of comments with a ‘no’.
Apparently the live debate: Harris V's Trump is live tonight, 2am UK time on ABC news.
Not sure If I'll still be awake for it but I'm going to try to be.
Mics off when the other is speaking, but also no notebooks or consultations allowed either... should be spicy!
I'm quite interested in just how incoherrent trump will be, he really does seem to be struggling to speak outside of his safe spaces.
I am hoping that Harris does a smiling assassin on him. Remains polite and truthful and winds him up a treat. As an experienced prosecutor this should be fairly easy. a bit of gentle mockery perhaps as well
Feels like this should be a big moment but I'm really not going to get my hopes up that things are going to turn around. Because at the moment the indicators are not looking great.
**** me it's a shitty time to be alive.
a bit of gentle mockery perhaps as well
It'd be fun to watch....for those of us on the outside and the 'mercans already confirmed as democrat votes.
But we are talking about America. Subtle is not their strong subject at the best of times and the grim reality is her job is to bring over the mouth breathers that are just about savable. Gentle mockery will go straight over their heads.
Mics off when the other is speaking,
An interesting aspect of the last debate that had passed me by at the time - although the mics were muted that didn't shut Trump up. A possible / contributing factor in Biden's poor performance was the Trump was still giving it full Trump even when his mic was off so Biden was being distracted and heckled whilst he was speaking buy stuff the audience weren't hearing. I wonder if people would have judged his performance differently if they could hear what he was hearing whistle he was speaking.
Harris will have to fight fire with fire against Trump to a degree but the real impact will be from clobbering him on abortion rights and workers (union) rights. He has a real weakness to be exploited on both of those.
He'll try to hit her on migration but will also go hugely off script about her colour and gender which is good for Harris, not bad.
Its the undecided voters she needs
To be undecided at this stage, after 9 years of the man demonstrating his unsuitability, IS to be a mouth breather.
I'm not so sure, Trump on his own, I predict will fall apart and resort to sound bites, fist pumping, etc.
All Kamala has to do is be honest, coherent, and maybe put a slight and well timed dig at him, and it's game over for trump.
To be undecided at this stage, after 9 years of the man demonstrating his unsuitability, IS to be a mouth breather.
Yeah, it would be like the UK voting Lizz truss back in...
At this point, it's just about motivating/demotivating "your" voters to go and vote (or not).
Nobody is switching who they vote for, and I don't believe there are any "undecideds" - it's just about convincing people to/not-to bother.
Harris has been hugely successful in that regard - potential Dem voters who were feeling really demotivated at the prospect of voting for Biden, are now really enthusiastic at the prospect of voting for somebody else.
With Trump - I dunno. I feel like there must be a huge number of people who would never vote democrat, but that also don't particularly like trump - if those people can be convinced not to bother. I think it's in the bag.
Also: I feel like Americans view politics as some kind of wierd team sport - they want their team to win, but more precisely, they want to be on the winning team. I know "underdog effect" is real, but if Trump looks like he's going to lose, I think his supporters may not race to be on the losing side.
Im not sure 'huge' is the best descriptive of the Trump supporters.
Sure they get several hundred at each rally, but even multiplying a few hundred by 50 is pretty small compared against the vast numbers of Americas population.
Trump supporters tbh look like a cross section of the weirdos who totally believe conspiracy theories. They're not a representation of Republican votership.
Look to the last election here in the UK. Where quite a number of those who previously voted Conservative, voted for Labour, and I can quite see that happening in the US
Am i the only one that just heard Trump suggest that Harris would allow abortion "probably after birth"?
Trump seems to be melting down, he just got called on the immigrants eating people's pets lie.
The guys a nut job where actually having fits watching, I think he has mental health problems.
Trump seems to be melting down, he just got called on the immigrants eating people’s pets lie.
But to be fair he did say that he saw someone on TV claiming they had, so he can't be blamed 🙂
Thing with Trump is that he's had decades of experience bullshitting people as a marketing tool. He's good at picking up cues from his audience about what they like to hear and then just making shit up to push those buttons. The "lock her up" thing started like that, crowds at his rallies started chanting it so he just went with it. Problem is, when he doesn't have an audience that likes his bullshit, he doesn't know how to respond so he just ends up ranting nonsense about windmills and electrified sharks and immigrants eating people's pets.