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Can't believe how lightly challenged his bullshit is.
I was wondering that.. He just can't string a sentence together... And then went on some wierd tangent about immigrants eating cats or something... The guy is proper nuts.
CNN has a preliminary fact check at 33-1. I'll let you guess who is 33 lies.
I was a little disappointed that the mods did not stop his bullshit. But he just made himself look even more insane so, good I guess. Harris didn't do as well as I hoped but better than I feared. At least she managed to get some policy plans out there. And didn't cite Fox as reputable sources of info on fact checking!
Unfortunately I don't think that debate will be enough. Trump met expectations which is all he needed to do. I was hoping for literal dribbling and possible incontinence because I honestly believe that is all that would have shifted the polling numbers in any meaningful way.
Betting markets have given Harris a 5% bump (currently at 51.8%) but I doubt it will last unless there is something from the debates they can use that I missed. Or maybe some other angle of attack.
Still a toss up but in any toss-up I just assume it's not going to go my way.
The world's fate hangs on the decision of a couple of hundred thousand morons in Pennsylvania..
But he just made himself look even more insane
TBH how insane do people need him to be before they realise that he lost the plot way back 🙂
I always remember the President in Judge Dredd (2000AD)who started the nuclear war (President Booth)and worry.
Taylor Swift is publicly endorsing KH, if only 14 year olds could vote...
Swifties are old enough.
"45% are millennials, 23% are baby boomers, 21% are Generation X, and 11% are Generation Z." Wiki
Am i the only one that just heard Trump suggest that Harris would allow abortion “probably after birth”?
He's made that statement quite a few times but I don't think anyone has asked him to explain what he actually means.
CNN has a preliminary fact check at 33-1. I’ll let you guess who is 33 lies.
I was a little disappointed that the mods did not stop his bullshit.
The problem for presenters, interviewers and journalists etc is - theres just so much bullshit. There simply isn't the time and space to challenge him on lie 1 becuase before you can do that lies 2,3 and 4 have happened. I forget which of the post Trump presidency documentaries it was but it showed the newsroom of one of the US broadsheets and the phenomenal workload Trump created. In the context of him being President and therefore every statement he made being and official statement the had to do their due dilliegence in checking everything they published. "I'm going to build a beauiful wall and Mexico is going to pay for it" - to publish that you have to work out who in 'Mexico' he might mean, contact them, give them the right to reply and so on. His 'official' lies ran into the 10s of 1000s and all of them had to be check in detail just to be able to say truthfully that they were a lie. In his recent Mar a Lago press conference is lie rate was more 2 a minute for over an hour.
I got in the mood for the debate by watching 'Civil War' last night.
I was a little disappointed that the mods did not stop his bullshit.
That's Kamala Harris' job, she won't have mods in the WH
Unfortunately I don’t think that debate will be enough
+1 Historically they don't effect change (apart from in JB's case). The fact is that most people have decided, anyone waiting for a decision this late is either waiting to understand KH a little more or won't ever decide
The swift endorsement is a big boost for Harris. Not only is she hugely popular but she is also seen as thoughtful and clever
Seems like the debate went well for Harris
I do not believe Trump to be mentally ill as such - he is a narcissistic psychopath ie a personality disorder
Swifties are old enough.
“45% are millennials, 23% are baby boomers, 21% are Generation X, and 11% are Generation Z.” Wiki
Yeah - the fact that she's encouraging people to vote alongside her endorsement is hugely powerful.
The debate wasn't particularly meaningful (beyond the fact that Harris did a good job compared to Biden) - but Swift's endorsement is yuuuuge.
Kid Rock on fox news in 3....2.....1
Quite enjoying the comparisons between Trumps performance and Stefon from SNL - with his review of nightclubs that have 'everything' illustrated with a list things that sit outside the the sphere of 'everything'
Taylor Swift is publicly endorsing KH
And CatTurd is endorsing Trump so that's got the have-no-life-in-the-real-world middle-aged male Twitter shitposters who live in their mum's basement sewn up.
Iirc swift endorsed biden in 2020, and so her endorsement for another democrat isn't going to shift the dial much as her support is probably factored in already.
But I think her encouragement to her fans to register and vote is more important. I mean they might all turn out to be maga cheerleaders, but I doubt it
I got in the mood for the debate by watching ‘Civil War’ last night.
It would be interesting to see where the budget for civil war came from. The idea of civil war in the US is apparently one of the main messages for putins propaganda machine (and probably also aided the promotion of the far right riots in the UK). For a while I have thought the idea of conspiracies like government cabals working against the people being so popular in Hollywood and television over the past 15-20 years, has primed people to more readily accept conspiracy theories. Surely propogandists have realised that getting their message into popular culture as well as seeding news channels and political commentators would be highly effective.
It would be interesting to see where the budget for civil war came from
DNA Films - The folk who produced Trainspotting, 28 Days Later, Love Actually etc and IRV.VC which is a Finnish asset fund that invests pension capital in film and tv projects.
Civil War isn't really about imagining a civil war as imagining how to report such and eventuality - the war it imagines is actually quite disconnected from the current political divisions in the US - but it imagines a US just as divided. In the film for instance Texas and California are allied as the 'Western Forces' but those two states probably sit at the two poles of the current divisions. I don't think a contemporary US viewer would see either side of the conflict it represents and say to themselves 'thats my side'.
Thats not to say theres no Russian driver behind division in the US or anywhere else but I'd say in this instance the film is holding a mirror up to that rather than driving it. I don't think Russian bots are behind a Handmaids Tale either, although they're not doubt amplifying those kinds of narratives too.
The problem for presenters, interviewers and journalists etc is – theres just so much bullshit.
The problem is that they're not allowed.
The debates are set up with a plethora of rules that the host channel and presenter has to agree to. One of those rules is not cutting in. Crazy.
Guardian podcast.... Mehdi Hassan on how to beat Donald Trump in a debate
https://pca.st/episode/1fd530cb-782e-4d15-8a75-99c2d2fbf9fe
For a while I have thought the idea of conspiracies like government cabals working against the people being so popular in Hollywood and television over the past 15-20 years, has primed people to more readily accept conspiracy theories
It's basically enshrined in the constitution - The Second Amendment pretty much defines the government as an entity that civilians need to be ready to defend themselves against. So the idea of the government, or elements of the government, being a shadowy and dishonest entity is pretty much an American staple in its fiction for ever.
sounds like Harris did manage to get under his skin and cause him to get angry and lose focus
Trump's ill-discipline cost him, he cant stay on message, just gets ranty and Harris was able to exploit that (he really is too old)
His thing about immigrants eating cats just weird (tho will probably work with the more far gone MAGA)
This debate was Harris's to lose and she didnt
also an aside Taylor Swift has come out for Harris, not really a surprise as she'd endorsed biden last time round, but shes friends with some MAGA influencers and been supicously quiet about who she might endorse lately.
From a sales point of view she will alienate some Republicans by supporting Harris and she's obviously a smart business woman
The funniest thing is that she was forced to speak out by the likes of JD Vance slagging her off (she signed off as a childless cat lady) and Trump using AI fakes saying she endorsed him, which she also referenced in her post
(predictably musk spat his dummy and replied in a predictably creepy way!)
this was an interesting it of research, though obviously trump vs biden not trump vs harris
Based on the previous data, and also from this survey: 15% of Democrats and 4% of Republicans directly recognize that if Taylor Swift supports someone, it will make them more likely to vote for that person.
To be fair Musk has got so many kids he could give one away and probably not notice. Not sure Swift would want a second hand Musk though.
Trump’s ill-discipline cost him, he cant stay on message, just gets ranty
To a great extent the rants have served him well - his advisors try to feed policy and strategy to him, but Trumps political success boils down to him being a one trick pony - He's the guy that hates all the things that you hate. Just saying what it is he hates or that he thinks other people hate - thats it. Works.
Morecash - whatever you think of Swifts music it is clear she is an intelligent woman
Sadly after a 'normal' Trump performance without totally imploding - my money is now on him winning. Not the popular vote, but getting over the line never the less.
Sadly after a ‘normal’ Trump performance without totally imploding – my money is now on him winning. Not the popular vote, but getting over the line never the less.
Same here, unfortunately.
I think this is the source of "immigrants eating cats" misinformation...
Local resident who clearly has some issues has killed and eaten a cat. Right wing agitators and conspiracy theorists incorrectly call her a haitian immigrant, gets amplified on social media, Trump believes it, then appears in a debate saying "immigrants are eating the pets!".
I am hopeful. I think Harris has the ability to motivate folk to vote who usually do not. Swifts endorsement will help with that. these folk do not really show up in polling. I also think Trumps rantings will put off dyed in the wool republicans who are not MAGA nutjobs
Fingers crossed
Sadly after a ‘normal’ Trump performance without totally imploding – my money is now on him winning. Not the popular vote, but getting over the line never the less.
I also think Trumps rantings will put off dyed in the wool republicans who are not MAGA nutjobs
He has been putting off some MAGA nut jobs too,
What is possibly interesting is there a few of the more extreme Maga voices who've fallen off the Trump wagon as a result of some of his more recent free-wheel brain farting.
Take the whole Stop the Steel movement to date - Trump has never conceded that he lost the vote, continually insisted that there was fraud - people around him have been jailed, lost millions, are in debt of millions, fox has lost 3/4 of a billion over it, some folk died. Then he just says that actually he lost 'by a whisker' and basically, casually, pisses over everything those people have sacrificed for him.
Nick Fuentes take on the whole situation is pretty illuminating - I'd normally not say 'hey listen to what Nick Fuentes has to say' but - listen to what Nick Fuentes has to say - (actually just read it and imagine the whinging little shitbag)
“He’s admitting… ‘I lost by a whisker’. So what was the point? What’s the point of any of it you lost in 2020? Seriously? What are we even doing anymore then? You’re a loser… you lost to Joe Biden, you deserve to be charged. If he admits that he lost, then that actually vindicates the… DOJ charge against him because the charge is that he knew he lost, but he lied to defraud the people. That’s the DOJ’s charge. So why did we do stop the steal?” .
“Why did anyone go to January 6th? Why is anyone sitting in jail? Why did anything bad happen to anybody? Why did everyone get censored? Why is everything bad that has happened to the people that are involved? Why did that need to happen? If you’re just going to walk it all back and say, ‘Oh, I lost.’ Well, it would’ve been good to know that before 1600 people got charged. It would've been good to know that before I had all my money frozen, put on no fly list, banned from everything, lost all banking and payment processing. It would’ve been good to know that.”
If its an idea that gets any traction - coming from the hellmouth pretty much of the whole white supremacist, misogynist schtick that underlies the Trump base and other figures start to echo the same sentiments it could be quite wounding for Trump electorally
It was looking pretty certain that Trump would win when he was up against Biden, now it really is a lot closer, Harris still has a mountain to climb Im still not sure that America is ready for a female president, theres so much casual sexism (fundamentalist christian influence) that even the Tories would balk at, but Trump just gets weirder as he gets older and the likes of Vance & co dont help him
Im cautiously optimistic, though a close win for Harris will be open day for accusations of fraud and Jan 6th mk2, Trump wont go quietly and will no doubt try and anoint one of his kids as heir to MAGA, but Im not sure how that will sit with the GOP
interesting times
It was looking pretty certain that Trump would win when he was up against Biden, now it really is a lot closer,
I've never thought so, Trump would never pick up the undecided vote, just under Biden they were not going to vote - but I still thought Biden would scrape it.
Now though, I think that Harris is a shoe-in, and if for nothing else than only because the full extent of the abortion issue is slowly coming into the conscious of ordinary non-partisan Americans. Driven by the current 'Abortion after Birth' bollox, it's really making them realise that they've only this one chance to stop the direction of travel.
I'm cautiously optimistic in a TJ style, but it hinges on getting the young female vote out, which is possibly where Taylor Swift's endorsement may help get them registered and voting.
That Nick Fuentes thing is a potential ticking time bomb for Trump if it takes hold. Excellent point that it is exactly what the charges were brought on. He's either guilty, or he keeps protesting against the steal, can't be both.
There's a lot of angry armed MAGA folks have lost too much to be happy to see Trump just shrug and walk away.
Trump Media stock dropped 17% after the debate. That dropped his paper worth by about $200 million by my calculation.
https://meidasnews.com/news/trumps-stock-nosedives-after-disastrous-debate
I am also finding Harris more and more likable whereas I never warmed to H. Clinton at all
NOt just the young women Morecash - its also the voters of asian descent and other minorities. Those two groups - young women and those of Asian descent could be the real key here
I am confident she will win the popular vote but will she have enough to overcome the republicans structural advantage?
Watched a couple of clips finally, which mostly entail Harris goading Trump into an massive elephant trap by saying "This is a trap, why don't you stumble into it you big dummy" all the while holding a sign that says "Trap- this way" and watching as Trump does just that. It should be sound-tracked with the sad trombone noise every-time. All the while Harris tries her hardest not to laugh out loud by biting on her knuckles.
reeksy
Full MemberAm i the only one that just heard Trump suggest that Harris would allow abortion “probably after birth”?
He said the same thing in the first debate too
ads678
Full MemberTaylor Swift is publicly endorsing KH, if only 14 year olds could vote…
Swift fans cover a huge range. Probably more importantly they're mostly ages that are underrepresented at the polls. It's going to be way, way easier to mobilise X young voters than it is to move X voters from blue to red. And it's also one of those chaotic factors that's really hard to poll accurately for- because young voters are least likely to vote in states they consider to be fundamentally red. But if you get a swing going, then there's this big silent bloc that can materialise seemingly out of nowhere, and that people don't pay much attention because they think they've already succesfully marginalised them.
When Texas goes blue- probably not this time- it'll be younger voters that do it and again it'll happen faster and more decisively than is predicted because of that momentum effect, the less impossible it feels, the more likely it is. And blue texas makes a republican president pretty much impossible, or at least creates the need for a massive change in attitudes and party approaches and probably system.
maccruiskeen
Full MemberHe has been putting off some MAGA nut jobs too
Just saw a poll result reposted on reddit- of registered republicans who voted trump last time and intend to vote trump this time, only 69% think he won this debate. That's an incredibly low score for that demographic, just disastrous. He couldn't have achieved that with a merely bad performance as Biden could, it had to be a performance that specifically switched off his fans. They like winners, they like bullying confidence, they like it when he looks strong, and last night they didn't like what they saw at all.
Worn out is a good description. If his circus act doesn't work he doesn't really have much to go on, and she's got more experience debating people who argue than him -
He lost that and he knows it . There won't be a third. VP debate should be interesting
Hateful dude is ****ing toast and he’ll be gone for good within five years. The idea up there that his dynasty might persist in politics is laughable. Shitgibbon at least had ‘charisma’ and that’s the only thing that got him in the Whitehouse.
The idea up there that his dynasty might persist in politics is laughable.
I think ivanka is canny enough to make it work, but what happens to the GOP after Trump that will determine that, they'll want to keep his MAGA fans somehow (but it will destroy them)
Trump always was his worst enemy.
I can imagine his advisors constantly telling him to stick to policy, not to adlib, over and over and over... all the time knowing all Harris has to do was make an intentionally childish comment about the size if his rallies or whatever and let his inflated ego take him down a rabbit hole into immigrants eating pets and the like.
He just can't help himself, even with the presidency and the equality huge prize of effectively escaping justice by being president at stake, he just can't change his DNA.
I bet he is being an absolute bastard to anyone around him today as it's all "their fault".
Any one see his eyes moving all over the place. Just shooting all over the place.
I wonder what percription drugs do that
It's always been about his ego
He hates thought of losing, the polls are still 50/50 but he's rattled
I wonder what dead cat he'll throw up to distract from this
All I've taken away from watching bits of the debate and reading up on it is that Trump looks like an old fence that's due for a fresh coat of Cuprinol. That and a politician in this ****ing mad world we now live in can claim that Haitian immigrants eat dogs (and cats) and that abortions after birth are a thing.yes they are, they're called murders. How did we end up here FFS? Someone should've walked on stage and slapped him for those two absurd remarks. Something, something electric sharks
I wonder what dead cat he’ll throw up to distract from this
Are there any left? I thought they'd all been eaten.
Very powerful stuff here from the parent of a child killed in a road accident, who is now being used for anti-immigrant political gain. He won’t get his apology though.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/11/trump-vance-ohio-aiden-clark
That is very upsetting. I can't imagine how those parents feel. Using the death of a child for low-rent political gain is nothing more than I expect from these ****s.
Trump had some glorious, great, best ever expressions during the debate. The classic smile-not-smile, the wide-open eyes, trying-to-look-intelligent-but-really-not. But I really like this one - it shows what he thought of his own performance.
Very powerful stuff here from the parent of a child killed in a road accident, who is now being used for anti-immigrant political gain. He won’t get his apology though.
And Vance doubled down when asked about it - FFS how cruel and insensitive can you be.
it shows what he thought of his own performance.
Its reminiscent of this image
When you think of the real dramas a crises of his presidency - Covid and 1 million deaths and 40 million out of work, the race riots and so on - the only time he showed any sign that he'd expended real emotional effort was in having to face up the the press waiting for him after he returned to the Whitehouse after a bit of a poor turnout at a rally in Tulsa
“the silent majority is stronger than ever before” he declared to an arena full of empty seats, Silent and invisible.
It seems like Laura Loomer- Trumps current confidant and debate prep mastermind is having a very public smackdown with Marjorie Taylor Greene after MTG called her out for this racist tweet
https://twitter.com/7Veritas4/status/1834028279335960677
That is right wing philosophy in a nutshell, they can see the wheels falling of the bus instead of planning what is required to fix it, they are straight into backstabbing mode to position themselves to be the next driver without giving a **** that the bus is going to crash.
Trump has to do something dramatic to turn around the momentum, but it doesn't look like he and his etam are capable of not ****ing up anything they touch. From what I can see even the right wing media heads are starting to distance themselves from the outcome, as someone mentioned above it is part of their personality to attach to winners and distance themselves from losses.
It seems like Laura Loomer- Trumps current confidant and debate prep mastermind is having a very public smackdown with Marjorie Taylor Greene after MTG called her out for this racist tweet
We can laugh now - but inevitably not long from now thats what a page from Hansard will look like 🙂
Fox news are up in arms about the real time fact checking that put Trumps nonsense in the proper perspective.
This debate was a microcosm for the absurdity of the whole election.
Trump was petulant and impotent and clearly incapable of hitting the talking points he'd been coached about, because he's too thin-skinned to skirt the obvious bait questions. Then he got caught up parroting a stupid right-wing conspiracy theory about immigrants eating pets. It would be a brilliant absurdist parody if it wasn't disappointingly real. He later complained that Harris knew what questions she would be asked, implying that ABC news were somehow assisting her, apparently without realising that all the questions were standard fare and IT'S HER JOB - and his - to have answers to all this!
A complete display of incompetence on Trump's part. And yet almost half of the USA will vote for him irregardless*. "Leader of the free world" my arse. Putin and Xinping must be laughing - and why not?
Trump has to do something dramatic to turn around the momentum,
Is there any momentum at the moment? If anything Trump is the one making gains in the polls.
Harris is ahead but she needs to be ahead by more in order to overcome the Electoral College disadvantage.
The Dems obviously got a huge boost when Biden stepped down but since then things seem to have gotten very flat. Remains to be seen if the debate moves the needle in terms of polling. Harris got a slight bump after the debate on electionbettingodds.com but I would expect that to tail off over time.
I'm really not getting my hopes up for this.
Harris got a slight bump after the debate on electionbettingodds.com but I would expect that to tail off over time.
clips from the debate take a while to percolate through to those that didnt see it
That will help Harris as she got the better of him
you can hope that the Loomer/MTG scrap is indicative of the Trump campaign knowing they are blowing it, having been a shoe -in just a few months ago, and that this will precipitate more angry off message Trump
still going to be very close and its hard to be optimistic
Here's a forecast map made using fivethirtyeight.com polling averages.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
You can see the original forecast with undecided states shaded bronze here:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2024-presidential-election-forecast
What I've done is simply made every undecided state where Harris is ahead by any amount a light blue and every undecided state where Trump is ahead by any amount light red. This shows that Harris is slightly ahead according to current polls, but it's very close. Harris pretty much has to win Pennsylvania, where she's polling 0.7% higher than Trump, but she can afford to lose Nevada and one other swing state. Trump really has to win Georgia and Arizona, plus two or three of the Harris leaning swing states. Basically, a nationwide 1 or 2% swing to Trump would make it very, very difficult for Harris to win.
latest poll has 3 point swing to Trump just giving him the lead in Michigan ( a place where his talk of tariffs on foreign cars goes down well)
That would give Harris the tiniest of leads and just 1 more state to flip for Trump and it'd be over
Its going to be a loooong 8+ weeks and Harris will have to work her arse off to keep in the race, nits absolutely hers to lose, the worry is she has peaked too early and doesnt have much higher to go.
Harris is ahead but she needs to be ahead by more in order to overcome the Electoral College disadvantage.
Well ths is the thing, the dems are almost certain to win the popular vote, but it's all about the strange electoral college system they have there.
One thing I have wondered for a while is how many women in republican families are going to secretly vote for Harris.
And also this... that's almost impossible to quantify, I guess the 'Taylor Swift' effect will also add to that, but who the hell knows.
I'm feeling quietly conifident on my £20 bet for Kamala, I stand to get about £55, where as the same bet today would only return about £36.
Twitter is mostly a cesspool these days but this did make me lol
https://twitter.com/FearghasKelly/status/1833826081754808363
https://x. https://twitter.com/FearghasKelly/status/1833826081754808363 https://twitter.com/FearghasKelly/status/1833826081754808363 com/FearghasKelly/status/1833826081754808363
https://twitter.com/FearghasKelly/status/1833826081754808363
https://twitter.com/FearghasKelly/status/1833826081754808363
Last few polls are showing Harris national poll lead gone, with Trump leading in several , she needs to to be +4 nationally to take the electoral college and is an uphill slog
^ Beggars belief
Last few polls are showing Harris national poll lead gone, with Trump leading in several , she needs to to be +4 nationally to take the electoral college and is an uphill slog
Links?
It looks close but Harris slightly ahead:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html
Sometimes I think that if the USA didn't speak English it wouldn't all seem so depressingly ghastly.
But they do, so it does
Watching the orange monkey blathering on another immigrants eating cats it’s difficult to argue with the Daily Stars appraisal of him from a few years back
I’m incredulous that nearly half of Americans think an absolute loon like him is even in with a look in at becoming president again. It’s absolutely insane!
The VP is on top of the trolling at Blue Sky
Someone has also done this
Last few polls are showing Harris national poll lead gone, with Trump leading in several , she needs to to be +4 nationally to take the electoral college and is an uphill slog
That's not what I'm seeing. 538 has her maintaining a steady 3% lead over the honey monster. There's a couple that are more favourable to him, a couple that give her 5%. Also, a lot of the polls are also deliberately correcting for the Trump denial factor, ie people not wanting to admit that they're gonna vote for him, on the basis that they badly underestimated this factor in 2016 & 2020, which meant he actually got more votes than predicted. Hopefully this anomaly has been dealt with.
Regardless the only polls that really count are the swing states. If she wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin she's basically there. They're all eminently winnable, particularly if the dems get the youngsters and ethnic minorities in the cities out to vote.
By all accounts the Dems have massive, professionally run operations in each of the swing states. The GOP was taken over by the Trump lot and unsurprisingly the feedback is they're badly prepared and essentially relying on local red hats to do the work for them (read amateurs who don't know what they're doing) in return for some shiny DT merch.
I'm hopeful
in return for some shiny DT merch.
Where do I sign Cletus?
Superficial
Free MemberHarris is ahead but she needs to be ahead by more in order to overcome the Electoral College disadvantage.
Mmm. With the polls where they are we're still in "nothing matters except the swing state" territory, neither candidate is gaining or collapsing enough to bring other states into play unless something hyperlocal happens. And tbf unless Harris has some sort of spectacular disaster I think there's zero chance of <any> previously safe blue state becoming a swing state, while the bluer swing states still feel bluer. But the low-voting youth vote remains a large random factor and potential growth, and Trump's got to be more likely at this point than Harris to switch voters off and lose them to nonvoting, so while few people are going to be switching most of the major turnout stuff looks to be in Harris's favour. Basically I reckon Trump is still close to maxxed out, which is scary and mad but also in its way reassuring, he can't go up much but he can go down. WHereas Harris has far more likelihood of going up.
So basically not <that> much point in listening to anything except post-debate swingstate polls of decent size, just keeping a wee eye on the 4%,5% states is enough, this is still a local general election. And it's definitely the case that the democrats have been attacking those while Trump is still almost entirely preaching to the choir. Course, some of that choir is in the swing states, maybe Michigan most of all.
But it's really noticable that frinstance all of this mad "eating your pets" stuff is targeting Ohio by name, and Ohio should be a pretty safe seat for Trump. In fact it's a right-lurching state which used to be a bellweather. (2020 was literally the first time Ohio went for the loser in 60 years) So considering that the actual conversation point is almost entirely made up, it's really weird to aim it there rather than picking up the most immigration-sensitive of the big 5 swings.
But right now I just don't think we've seen any useful numbers post-debate? Everything's really sticky and hard to move and I don't have any sense that any of them is an exception but I'd be surprised if we see a majority rightward slide.
PS, I just became sort of aware that I've posted a bit but I don't think I've ever actually said that Harris is doing so much better than I'd thought was likely, at best I'd given her faint praise and at worst I thought the party had pretty much discounted her as a future presidential candidate going by the last 5 years. I am very happy to be wrong, and now i'm feeling quietly, veeeery slightly confident and I hope I'm back to being right but what do I know 😛
538 has her maintaining a steady 3% lead over the honey monster.
I think I mentioned it before but Nate Silver now has nothing to do with 538. Here's his new site:
Just in case people are thinking that 538 is using the same methodology as it has in previous elections.
I know this may be a little confusing, but I continue to own the IP for all of the original FiveThirtyEight election models and forecasts. The remaining staff at 538 have created some cool new versions of their own, but I haven’t played a role in anything they’ve built since June 2023.
Then you have people who don't understand how things can be played. Especially if your opposition don't care about why they'll just shout louder their truth.