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Is it likely that anyone who didn’t vote for him last time has decided in the intervening 4 years that he’s worth another shot? I can’t imagine it, so I reckon Biden will win again
Quite possible that some have decided to just not vote at all this time, Biden doesn't seem very popular either. Certainly doesn't seem like a foregone conclusion to me either way yet though.
I always thought the polling is particularly unreliable in the US and the mid terms are a much better indicator. So it's reasonably optimistic. Although its still far too close for comfort and crazy that its got to this stage. The Dems do seem rather complacent though.
There seems to be a recent fillup re Trump's presidential campaign but surely seeing off Haley in the Primaries and the supreme court decision aren't surprising at all?
Trump will win, bet you 50p.
I'll take that bet.
I dont know who will win btw. I dont see how anyone currently can with any meaningful certainty.
I'll also have 50p that trump will lose.
I'm with nick - in the primaries to date there has been a significant proportion of GOP members (c40%) who voted are against trump.
General election turnout will be higher so...what will the anti-trump GOP voters do; how successful will the dems be in wooing disaffected GOP members; how will those voters who don't turn out in the primaries vote in the GE.
trump's base is not enough to get him voted in.
How successful will Biden be in getting the electorate to see the economy is on the up? How many democratic voters are so disillusioned with Biden that they will not vote for him?
How many voters will decide not to vote as neither candidate appeals to them?
trump has clearly telegraphed how he would govern - as an isolationist, undemocratically, a racist and vindictively. That's not an appealing message for the undecided.
For those who go on about Biden's age and cognitive ability, try reading a transcript of any of trump's speeches; they make no sense, they are incoherent, he fills in gaps with random words. He is incapable of meaningful discussion and cannot articulate anything other than his range of self-interests, persecution complex and general contempt for everything non-trump.
It's interesting that Info Wars are already priming their audience with "If Trump loses, it was a rigged election" line
Latest polling shows them neck and neck/within margin of error territory...
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/trump-biden-polls/
I read a good point elsewhere that will probably swing it for biden... in summary:
A) Trump has never stopped campaigning, so his figures will be quite static at best...Biden hasn't even started yet
B) Trumps campaign funds are low compared to biden, unless he convinces Musk to bankroll him
There are a lot of people energized to vote for Trump, but there's an awful lot who are equally there to vote against him. I don't think he will .
Given there ages it's about 10% at least one of them won't make it there
Christ! Who'd want to be an American? What a choice
I know that our own selection is hardly inspiring, but just imagine if the upcoming UK election was a groundhog day rematch between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn?
I'll bet 50p on Trump losing, just so long as I can find one of those Brexit 50p's to use for the stake.
I know that our own selection is hardly inspiring, but just imagine if the upcoming UK election was a groundhog day rematch between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn?
No thoughts involved, either corbyn or a psychopathic narcissist……….hmmmm, let me think…….not.
wbo
Given there ages it’s about 10% at least one of them won’t make it there
At 77 and 81 I'm not sure either of them will finish the term if they even get there. Fingers crossed it's the younger man that blinks first.
Out of the ‘tough’ choice, one will surround himself with experienced political and practical players, the other, charlatans, yes men, and Marjorie Taylor Greene.
I didn't see it earlier in the thread but the DOJ have said "nuts to you" to the SCOTUS and stated that they will continue with the trials into the election period.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/dojs-60-day-rule-role-play-trump-trial/story?id=107789927
The decisions are not in the gift of the DoJ in the form of a 'blanket approach'.
Each judge will decide independently on when their respective case will proceed.
trump has posted a bond of $92 million in the E Jean Carroll defamation case so his appeal will now go ahead.
Not his money; bond was provided by Chubb - don't know what, if any, connection they have to the security company.
EDIT: Chubb Insurance are global underwriters based in NYC so no connection with Chubb security.
I wonder how much he valued his property when he applied to the underwriter?
I wonder how much he valued his property when he applied to the underwriter?
One would assume that an insurance underwriter of all people would enter into a deal like this with thier eyes wide open and cast iron errrm..well... "Insurance" to ensure they don't lose out if/when Trump starts dicking about...
I wonder what Trump must have agreed to to get them to help him out... presumably they have him over a big barrel, property as security??
Presumably property that they know damn sure has equity, rather than mortgaged up to the hilt/mis-represented...
News headlines in 6 months: "Chubb tower, formerly known as Trump tower" 😀
You heard it here first!
Meanwhile, in Kansas... "the woke lefists are trying to take away our right to drink water out of lead pipes"
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1765935595702919299
I mean....whuuut?
Love the context added to that tweet. Not that any maga would understand scientific articles
One would assume that an insurance underwriter of all people would enter into a deal like this with thier eyes wide open
As a former claims manager - you'd be surprised!
Christ! Who’d want to be an American? What a choice
The solution is obvious!
At 77 and 81 I’m not sure either of them will finish the term if they even get there. Fingers crossed it’s the younger man that blinks first.
I suppose the difference is with one candidate theres a risk that they won't reach the end of their term and with the other theres a risk they will.
trump has posted a bond of $92 million in the E Jean Carroll defamation case so his appeal will now go ahead.
Not his money; bond was provided by Chubb – don’t know what, if any, connection they have to the security company.
Interestingly in the New York Fraud trial they're offering only around a 1/4 of the required sum to appeal - about $100M (in typical Trump delaying tactics they're making the case to offer less than required amount in a 18,000 page deposition which must have taken less time to write than it'll take to read) - but that is also Bond money, not Trump cash
So
A) he can't put up even a fraction of the required money himself
B) he's avoided bonds up til now because of the interest but the interest on this bond will be in the millions
C) Not only does he not have enough cash - he seemingly can't even raise even close to sum required as a Bond either
He never pays for anything using his own money so while I doubt he's as flush as he says, it's quite an assumption to think him now using someone else's means he's skint. He probably just has no intention of paying it back.
it’s quite an assumption to think him now using someone else’s means he’s skint.
But he can't even raise the full bond - which means the Bond company doesn't think he has sufficient assets to claim against should he fail to pay them. Delaying things with appeals just means the interest is increasing daily, given his legal team's pathetic handling of the case so far, they're unlikely to win. But they will find ways to string things out to make it look like they're doing something, at a daily interest cost - I'm sure they could find a way to come out of the appeal with a greater penalty. Chubb obviously feel that regardless of whatever cash reserves Trump may or may not have, once his 'empire' starts being broken up and the various court cases and creditors start hoovering up assets theres not going to be enough left for them to reclaim their bond.
And, also, Greenberg has already had all the favours Trump can offer him in exchange..... other than a pair of Gold sneakers.
Can't or won't. In his mind he's right and he doesn't have to abide by the corrupt political witch hunt courts, they should be grateful he's even acknowledged them. Each one of those dollars are trump dollars so worth at least bigly as much.
I'd love to see him totally out of cash but that'll not happen till everyone else has first.
Timing might be a big issue for him mind you - just now New York property is on its arse - especially commercial property - lots of working at home means large city tenants are rationalising their office space. The Flatiron building is completely empty, whole buildings on Park Avenue are empty. Buildings that changed hands a couple of years ago for 1/3bn are being sold for $1.
So if Trumps assets are going to be raided it's the absolute worst time for him for it to happen. As theres a huge difference between what his portfolio was worth a couple years, and would probably be worth again in a couple of years, and what actual value that can be extracted from it right now. So he stands to lose an awful lot of golden goose.
Across New York there are a lot of buildings that are his 'Empire' - but many he doesnt wholly, or even mostly own them. Many are buildings that he developed and sold but still have his name on - for now. There are also buildings that Trump Org has listed in their portfolio... but has never owned. As in many cases residents tenants are acting to have his name taken off their buildings as even through he doesn't own the building his name is depressing the sales value when they come to sell their apartments.
"Residents of the condo building included Keith Olbermann, who tweeted when he sold his condo in 2016that he had gotten back “90% of my money and 100% of my soul.”"
A lot of his apparent 'empire' is just property management contracts which in which putting his name above the door is part of the deal.
If he suddenly finds half a billion in cash, this might explain why.
https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1767095459649356107
The Mandarin Mussolini defamed E G Carrol yet again, at a campaign rally, over the weekend. She should sue him again, and ask the question, if 83 million dollars won’t shut him up, exactly how much will it take, 100, 150…..180 million?
I saw the clip of trump's comments when he referred, again, to E Jean Carroll.
Not convinced there was enough to justify a further defamation case nor am I convinced that she wishes to revisit this but I think it will definitely be a consideration when his appeal against the $83.3million is heard.
he used exactly the same language this time, as the "town hall interview" after he lost the first E G Carroll lawsuit.
if its not enough, it's only a matter of time, the idiot can't help himself !
Now the Trump crew are cleaning house at the RNC.
https://twitter.com/lucymcaldwell/status/1767350660813754393
TwitterX threads are not very helpful as there is so much misinformation, the noise can drown out the facts very easily.
trump crowdfunder at $1.35 million so it's slowly, but surely, grinding to a halt.
With regard the E G Carroll case, I did watch somewhere a lawyer suggesting some sort of gag order rather than more financial penalties with could give rise to contempt of cournt and possible jail time instead of dragging the whole thing through court again for more cash - it must be pretty stressful for her so whilst its easy to say, hell yeah, lets sue him again for $200m this time from the comfort of our sofas there is a huge personal element to this for her.
Can't see the TikTok guys helping out now that they went through with the promise of a bill to ban it. The Orange one must be livid they've followed his orders from last week rather than the revised ones this week after his 'chat' with the Tiktok investor.
Just in...trump's lawyers tell appeals court he can't pay the $464 million in the NY fraud case as he cannot find an insurance underwriter to take it on.
There has been some commentary that underwriters were not interested in him offering property as collateral - they wanted to see him put up some money.
Forgive me if I laugh - arf arf hahaha
So can't pay it so are his assets about to get sold to pay it all off?
Isn’t this the money he needs to raise in order to appeal?
dan - yes but his lawyers continue trying to find wriggle room.
If they fail to get a sympathetic hearing in court, trump will be on the hook for $464+ million (his 454 plus 5 each for little don and eric plus daily interest of $115k). Before long, you're talking about big money.
At present, the 'collection date' is 25 March - tick, tick...
Oh dear, how sad, never mind....
Maybe Putin will have a rummage down the back of the sofa for his friend? Anyway, who’d have thought a billionaire couldn’t pony-up a half-mil? That’s a serious heap of gold sneakers..
Probably should have thought twice about constantly attacking the judge, clerk etc, during the trial. 🤷♂️ hoist, petard etc,
What will happen if he can’t pay? Is a proper prison on the cards or just white collar pretend prison? Hopefully the stress of it all will do for the tangerine bastard.
What will happen if he can’t pay?
Well, assuming he hasn't successfully transferred his holdings to Florida where NYC can't touch them, I believe the prosecutors can apply to the court to seize whatever assets they think will cover the fine. And I'm guessing they won't be massively bothered about 'the deal' part of it so they'll probably flog off stuff at cut down prices to get the cash quickly so the true cost to Trump may be significantly higher than if he'd spent a year cutting deals.
No jail IIRC.
Top trolling if they go for Trump Tower to start with.
Ah, bond companies aren't willing to accept his valuation of property to appeal a case about his property being vastly overvalued. Couldn't have seen that coming, much
If trump or his eponymous organisation has transferred ownership of assets out of NYC in an attempt to shield them, that will have by-passed the court appointed 'overseer' and will land him/it in deeper shit.
Hard to see this as anything other than a massive crack in his carefully constructed facade of wealth, success and power.
Unless the appeal(s) courts overturn or massively reduce the disgorgement, this is the beginning of the end for trump as a businessman - and his sons will be commercial pariahs.
I can't wait.
No jail IIRC
But, if he's on record in his deposition saying his cash holdings are in excess of 400mil and growing, yet he doesn't actually have the cash, has he perjured himself and was this a longer play by the prosecutor's to turn this into prison time?
That cash is probably his "float" to keep his businesses running. Paying it out in one go would probably cripple him.
Toplolz
Bigly bother
All businesses need cash to maintain a degree of liquidity, but that belong to Trump Corp. If Donald extracts the cash from the business it’ll probably go bust as it’ll no longer be able to service its debts, lead to a fire sale of his assets and leave him with an even bigger debt pile. Trump’s sons boasted about how they’d borrowed money from Russians when no western bank would touch them - sanctions because of Ukraine means that line of credit is no longer available.
his ego is so mad now, he's trying rewrite history saying Biden defeated Obama. 😕
his ego is so mad now, he’s trying rewrite history saying Biden defeated Obama.
He's also claiming Hillary deleted her emails by pouring acid on them - a special acid that destroys everything in a 10 mile radius. He's confusing 'acid' with 'bleach', and confusing 'bleach' with 'bitbleach'.
He's also confusing himself with a (legitimate and credible) businessman.
As there’s a huge difference between what his portfolio was worth a couple years And what he claimed it was worth
It’s all probably worth a few cents on the dollar. I sincerely hope that this is where the whole tottering edifice of lies stacked on lies crashes around Dementia Don’s ears, and shows him to be the total loser he’s always been.
His cosplay fantasy will really show as the emperor’s new clothes.
I wonder who’s going to play him in the movie?
I wonder who’s going to play him in the movie?
Ha! That could be a great thread in itself! 😁
sanctions because of Ukraine means that line of credit is no longer available.
I hadn't considered this! Is "lift. the. sanctions!" going to become the new MAGA chant?
If Donald extracts the cash from the business it’ll probably go bust as it’ll no longer be able to service its debts, lead to a fire sale of his assets and leave him with an even bigger debt pile.
In the statements from his lawyers (and the insurance CEO who he has in his political pocket), he seems to going for the angle that this fine is so large that an individual could never meet it - which is obviously part ego/face-saving, and partly a peek at the thrust of their appeal.
Its just fantastic that in a trial about him grossly inflating the values of his business, he is being shown to have been grossly inflating his own personal wealth.
My understanding is that if he doesn't liquidate assets to pay the $454+, then the court will do it for him. I wonder whether Trump is being advised whether it's a better look (politically) to sell them himself, or have them "seized by the deep state". Surely we are going to see a Saudi prince buy some worthless Trump warehouse for half a billion dollars? What happened to all that cash that Jared got out of them?
I wonder who’s going to play him in the movie?
Rodney Dangerfield.
Do they have 'Can't Pay We'll Take it Away' over there?
I'm hoping the whole DWAC & Trump Media group merger thing tanks, on current stock valuation it would be worth several billion to him 🙁 Although even assuming it goes ahead he can't sell for 6 months so there's still a lot of time for the market value to correct itself
Alex Winter is my call.
Bogus.
My money is on Gregor Fisher for the STV mini series
Sandwich - that is bigly brilliant.
Chapeau Sir!
I wonder whether Trump is being advised whether it’s a better look (politically) to sell them himself, or have them “seized by the deep state”.
He's all about 'the deal' so he can't sell them off quickly to the first bidder and stoke his ego so I'd go with the deep state stealing it off him (and if you could donate all your spare dollars to my fund to get them back please click the link here...).
his ego is so mad now, he’s trying rewrite history saying Biden defeated Obama. 😕
He was referring to the 2008 run for the democratic nomination for president.
It seems the guy is a rapist and a fraud.
Who would have thought?
He was referring to the 2008 run for the democratic nomination for president.
Biden withdrew after the opening vote @ the Iowa caucuses when he got a whopping 0.9% 😕
So, in a plot twist from a galaxy far far away.... Putin pays his bond....
And while I'm here. Just where is Melania? Has there been a patio / new putting green / helicopter pad built lately?
Chilling on a secluded beach somewhere, with Kate Middleton and Shergar.
And while I’m here. Just where is Melania?
There's no money left. So she is leaving imo.
Gah - all the buttons have gone
"And while I’m here. Just where is Melania? "
Well he opens himself up to that speculation in his usual way of projecting his one issue onto other. He asked questions on the campaign trail about why Nikki Haley's husband wasn't by her side while she was campaigning. He's a serving solder and currently deployed in the Horn of Africa. They kind of guy Trump would describe as a loser.
5 days Donnie