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I'm sure it's wrong that Trump performs better in the SNL skits than he does in real life.
His biggest crime will be that he murdered satire 🙂
With all his dummy throwing about alleged rigging of the election and him not accepting the result - did his allegations of vote rigging come before or after he encouraged his supporters to [url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-37628704 ]go out and vote for him[/url] on the [b]2[/b]8th of November? 😀
[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-37722434 ]it's only fair if I win.[/url]
You couldn't ****ing make it up!
terrifying
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it's only fair if I win.
It looks like he is joking. He is joking, right?
I'm not even sure he knows anymore. I could see him complaining about voter fraud even if he won.
[url=
from Jim Wright on the Presidential debate[/url]
It does prove a point, mind- no matter how biased news outlets may be, right wingers will always believe they're the victims of a Libral Meeja KKKonspiracy. Now Fox News is part of it. Fox News! Glen Beck is part of it. Alex Jones is probably part of it. Bad!
Also,
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Not a supporter.. But l think he'll win
it's only fair if I win.
See, he did learn something from his dealings with Salmond...
There now even a poll putting Trump ahead 😯
It's a nightmare really, appalling candidates. The least two popular ever.
The worst outcome would be if Trump gifts the US presidency to someone as dodgy as HC. The FBI's investigation into HC should have prevented this entire situation but it's findings were complete BS and stink.
Odd piece from Jim Wright - I read what the questions were going to be in the new york times a day before the debate
Enfit - you really believe that after all the investigations into the Clintons there is still crime that was not exposed? Or actually the conclusions are correct - murky goings on but no criminality?
What info do you have that the FBI etc don't?
[url= https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/10/20/donald-trump-says-he-will-accept-the-results-of-the-election-if-i-win/ ]The worst outcome would be if Trump gifts the US presidency to someone as dodgy as HC. The FBI's investigation into HC should have prevented this entire situation but it's findings were complete BS and stink. [/url]
You are the Tumpster , and I want to goose you.
There now even a poll putting Trump ahead
I assume a link is too much to ask... National, state or just one of men likely to vote for Trump?
The FBI's investigation into HC should have prevented this entire situation but it's findings were complete BS and stink.
Didn't we find out that Bush had done similar? It's almost as if people can only find one thing and have to keep shouting about it, if the polls carry and the republicans have screwed themselves over the handling of Trump a democrat white house and government pushing through good policies like the rest of the world has would be a great punishment.
Loved Varoufakis' reply on QT on T v C
[quote=jambalaya ]There now even a poll putting Trump ahead
The LA Times one? http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
I posted that yesterday having noticed it gave a different result to all the others, but never posted the follow up I had planned (was hoping somebody might bite)
Some of my current favourites
Sleeping Beauty? The Prince just started kissing her. Didn't even ask. When you're a prince they let you do it.#TrumpBookReport
Oedipus. Tremendous leader. The best. I've always said that if Jocasta were my mother, perhaps I'd be dating her. #TrumpBookReport
7 days to create the world? Low energy. SAD! I'll do it in 3 days. And Satan will pay for it. And it'll be tremendous! #TrumpBookReport
"Juliet. Such a nasty woman. She made Romeo kill himself. And believe me he could have done better. Look at her,"
Let me tell you about Les Miserables. He was a good man. Great man. Les. Such a man. He became miserable thx to Hillary. #TrumpBookReport
NOBODY, I mean NOBODY, has more pride than me. And NOBODY has more prejudice. I have so much pride. And so much prejudice. #TrumpBookReport
Little Women. I love women. Especially beautiful ones. Not nasty women. #TrumpBookReport
Where's Wally? I know where Wally is. I'm the best at finding Wally. People claim I don't know where Wally is. Sad. #TrumpBookReport
There is a piece in realclearpolitics about why you can't just ignore the latimes poll although they aren't convinced by it either http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/10/14/why_pay_attention_to_the_la_times_poll.html
Would be an achievement if the electorate all spoiled their voting slips!
A cock and balls on all ballot papers 8)
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#scenarios
One poll Ja,by, and as the 538 stuff informs the popular vote is very different to how the elction will play out
The senate vote is probably the most changed in the last few weeks
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-senate-forecast
(Note this is a collation of a very large number of polls and a lot of probability forecasting on the margin of error to deliver a likely outcome - being in my field this stacks up best among methods as it should both consider and evaluate the off centre polls ( like the LA one) and the mainstream coming up with a decent evaliation.
I've been watching it and the senate is the one that has shown the biggest change, if I were to try my hand at politcal analysis it's likely that the way the Rep's have been unable to handle their number 1 man has hit them in the polls, stuff like the having to wait until sexual abuse confessions/allergations turn up to distance themselves (and those that didn't) and more (like Trump and Pence not having the same line on Syria I think) and his positions that don't sit well with tradional Rep supporters and swing voters has left them in trouble. Also due to the Trumpocplyse she has been able to divert a lot of funding to candidate funds boosting the advertising and presence of more marginals (they are going after Mcains seat)
As with any election there are also those that feel scared/ashamed/secretive about who they vote for. One of the Scottish thoughts was it was easier to pretend to support independance than argue it - possibly going some way to explaining why opion/election results didn't match public feel.
For Brexit I think in many ways there was a little complacancy among remain, the turnout may have been high but was it higher due to a big leave turnout and a lower showing from remain? In tight elections turnout counts which seems to be why Hillary is appealing to all to get out and make sure.
Anyway back to the original point, where is the Trump path to victory in the electoral collage system?
For anyone who didn't catch the dinner they were at last night (which would be all of us I guess) there were some classic one liners:
"But even Smith couldn’t help himself when commenting on a race that with each passing day has never ceased to shock the public.
“Donald went up to Hillary and asked her how she was doing,” Smith joked.
“Hillary replied: ‘I’m fine. Now get out of the ladies’ dressing room.’”"
“Donald looks at the Statue of Liberty and sees a four,” Clinton said, “maybe a five, if she loses the torch and tablet and changes her hair.”
This is the first time that Hillary is sitting down and speaking to major corporate donors and not getting paid for it,
I'm no fan of Trump, but tough crowd if they're giving him a hard time for that
...ah, have seen some of the coverage now, and the audience all laughed at that one - and also this one which got an even better reception:
Michelle Obama gives a speech and everyone loves it, it’s fantastic, they think she's absolutely great. My wife Melania gives the exact same speech and people get on her case and I don’t get it.
...the thing is, it was delivered in that same deadpan way he comes out with all the other mad stuff - you're expecting one of the normal mad tirades. Which leaves me wondering, is it all just an act?
Though this is the bloke sitting just behind him when he says "Hillary is so corrupt..."
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Can we give this man a job when the US has finished with him.
And if anyone missed it...
An interesting update on the most hated candidate thing too...
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-voters-arent-just-voting-against-trump/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
Some good numbers in there, needs a bigger sample obviously but...
voters will have to choose a “lesser of two evils” in this election. That cliché is based on how high Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump’s unfavorable ratings are compared to previous candidates. But favorable ratings don’t always tell us everything, and there are strong signs that voters don’t consider Clinton to be less tolerable than past candidates. (Trump on the other hand….)
A simpler method for determining positive or negative support is to ask people whether their vote is affirmatively for one candidate or in protest against the other. The latest ABC News survey reveals that, in fact, Clinton’s voters feel about as positively about their candidate as any candidate’s supporters have felt about their own preferred candidate since 1980. Trump voters are less enthusiastic about him: Since 1980, no group of supporters have been less affirmative in their support for their candidate.Right now, 56 percent of Clinton voters say they are mainly for her compared to just 42 percent of the same voters who say they are voting against Trump. This 56 percent is the highest it’s been all year in the ABC News poll, and it’s been steadily climbing for Clinton since July. In the same survey, only 41 percent of Trump supporters say they are voting for him, while 54 percent say they are mostly voting against Clinton. Those numbers are about the same as they’ve been all year.
That 56 percent of Clinton’s voters are affirmatively supporting her may not seem like a lot, but it’s about average for a presidential candidate.
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[/img]Obama being the clear exception there
The most interesting thing about these numbers is how few of Trump’s supporters are his fans. No candidate since 1980 has had a lower percentage of voters say they plan to cast a vote for their candidate. That includes candidates whose campaigns were viewed as disastrous, including Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988 and Bob Dole in 1996. (The Republican party basically gave up on Dole in the final month of the 1996 election.)
Lies damm lies and statistics or a bit more of an insight?
Just heard Tony Schwartz being interviewed by Eddie Mair on R4. Be afraid be very afraid.
Why?
Right, just read this and I see what you are getting at now!
Why?
It'll be on the iPlayer. To cut a long story short, man who had close, privileged access to Trump brands him as worse than 3 year old with behavioural issues. He was genuinely afraid that Trump would use high office to settle personal scores. Schwartz's testimony was very restrained and well considered which made it even scarier.
That was the impression i got from the article too. Scary times! It really feels like while the good burghers have been napping the idiots have snuck in and grabbed the reigns of power!
Everyone should listen to Tony Schwartz interview on tonight's R4 PM programm.
He was very eloquent and compelling, and he finished by saying that he had made plans, should Donald win, to move himself and his family to Europe, as he was convinced Donald would use presidential power to do him harm.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07zxh28
Second half of the programm.
What's the betting the n-word tapes of Trump on the apprentice will now be revealed to deflect from the counting email saga.
Everyone should listen to Tony Schwartz
One of the things he said when asked if Trump could win was that we shouldn't rule out something coming out about Clinton.
Remember when Obama complained that he couldn't change anything despite being president? Remember how we sympathised with him and said how disappointing that was? If Trump gets in that limit on presidential power is looking much more positive.
He couldn't do anything because he's a Democrat.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/the-woman-is-a-disaster-camille-paglia-on-hillary-clinton/
And for those who haven't seen it - Micheal Moore's deconstruction of Trumps chances
Michelle Obama gives a speech and everyone loves it, it’s fantastic, they think she's absolutely great. My wife Melania gives the exact same speech and people get on her case and I don’t get it....the thing is, it was delivered in that same deadpan way he comes out with all the other mad stuff - you're expecting one of the normal mad tirades. Which leaves me wondering, is it all just an act?
Thought the same thing Aracer and wanted to conclude that it was an act but sadly decided it wasn't. The guy really is a narcissist and deluded.
Two awful candidates. The bad one will win, the catastrophic one will lose. The US will celebrate its first [s] les[/s] female president and the DC machine will carry on running the US badly. Sadly the awful two familty abuse of US politics will continue
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/cover_story/2016/10/was_a_server_registered_to_the_trump_organization_communicating_with_russia.html?utm_content=inf_10_2641_2&wpsrc=socialedge&tse_id=INF_3a2cc8909fd611e6bd3ee3ca348530db
Was going to post this. Fascinating.
Four years of hell for the US, regardless of who wins.
Thanks for posting that link martin,a very interesting read.
F.B.I. officials spent weeks examining computer data showing an odd stream of activity to a Trump Organization server and Alfa Bank. Computer logs obtained by The New York Times show that two servers at Alfa Bank sent more than 2,700 “look-up” messages — a first step for one system’s computers to talk to another — to a Trump-connected server beginning in the spring. But the F.B.I. ultimately concluded that there could be an innocuous explanation, like a marketing email or spam, for the computer contacts.
Sauce = [url= http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/us/politics/fbi-russia-election-donald-trump.html?_r=2 ]Investigating Donald Trump, F.B.I. Sees No Clear Link to Russia[/url]
I suppose someone will find a way to blame Russia for Anthony Weiner (allegedly) sending photos of his junk to a 15 year old kid, and his then wife Huma Abedin (Chairwoman of the Clinton 4 Prez effort) using their laptop - which was seized by the FBI investigating the photos - to store 650,000 emails, of which [i]“Thousands may be tied to Clinton’s server.”[/i] (WSJ tweet, can't link to for some reason). Cocktober surprise indeed.
Or that it's Russia's fault that Podesta [url= https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/6040 ]lost[/url] his phone in the back of a cab last year (then emailing him on the *same* account resetting his password to [url= https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/22335 ]p@ssw0rd[/url]). He then fell victim to a phishing attach from [url= http://www.thesmokinggun.com/documents/crime/how-john-podesta-got-hacked-839125 ]Ukraine[/url].
I've got no [s]dog[/s], um, horse in this race however 😛
The Radio 4 comedy show, The Unbelievable Truth had a short piece on Donald Trump last night and it was genuinely scary just how awful he really is - they mentioned his numerous failed business holdings and the rather entertaining fact that he also won a Worst Supporting Actor award for a cameo role as himself. Which is quite an acheivement if you think about it!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b080t0pc
First 10 minutes of the programme.
Investigating Donald Trump, F.B.I. Sees No Clear Link to Russia
you do know that it was lifelong Republican Comey who blocked that investigation....
Blocked? Not according to the NYT article I posted: -
[i]"The F.B.I.’s inquiries into Russia’s possible role continue"[/i] (5th para)
So are the NYT wrong? What's your source?
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/31/fbis-comey-opposed-naming-russians-citing-election-timing-source.html
So its an article based [b]entirely[/b] on quotes from one unnamed source. OK.
"Source:", "The official said", "According to the official", "a former bureau official claims".
In other words; an unnamed person, who apparently used to work in 'the bureau', presents as a proven fact the extreme claim that the FBI Director is essentially a stooge of the Russian government.
But of course claims from anonymous sources are almost always true, and as the election approaches, their reliability actually increases. We're at the point where so many people will believe literally anything, from any 'source', if it's helpful to believe.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence; that no-one has actually come forward with evidence (yet) or anything beyond "but my mate down the pub says...", forgive me for not believing a word written in that article.
presents as a proven fact the extreme claim that the FBI Director is essentially a stooge of the Russian government
bobbins! where in the article does it say that? a stooge of the trump campaign, maybe
Comey refused to disclose whether the FBI were even investigating Trumps links with Russia a month ago
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/sep/28/fbi-director-mum-probe-trump-russia-connection/
where in the article does it say that?
Umm, the title? [i]"FBI's Comey opposed naming Russians"[/i] in a weak attempt to link Comeys' decision to Russia. Hence the word "Russians".
The article mentions Russia five times, so I think it's about Russia. If the article is about Comey favouring Trump in some way (if so why did you post the link? I wasn't even talking about that), they'd actually say something about Trump. Which it only does once in the last paragraph.
Comey refused to disclose whether the FBI were even investigating Trumps links with Russia a month ago
No. The very first sentence states: -
Comey [b]would not confirm[/b] whether the bureau is investigating any [links]
Or do you think a 'refusal to disclose' means the same as a 'would not confirm'? And even if he did 'refuse to disclose' the investigation a month ago, it's a non-story as the investigation has now been disclosed.
Anyway, I have no idea if Comey (and / or his decisions) and Trump are in any way connected; my brief foray on this thread was in relation to a slightly different issue
*wanders off confused*
From that post above it sounds like a Russian Bank computer was trying to hack Trump. No ? 2700 attempts to login / establish contact ?
a stooge of the trump campaign,
I take it that he was also a Trump stooge when he publically announced no criminal charges would be brought against Clinton a few months ago, and all her supporters were shouting his praises over a job well done?
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(via [url=
on FB[/url])
Trump defo now.
Perhaps not a bad thing in the long run, he's a ****in lunatic but the others are just hiding it better IMO.
jambalaya - Member
From that post above it sounds like a Russian Bank computer was trying to hack Trump. No ? 2700 attempts to login / establish contact ?
Bless
Earlier this month, the group of computer scientists passed the logs to Paul Vixie. In the world of DNS experts, there’s no higher authority. Vixie wrote central strands of the DNS code that makes the internet work. After studying the logs, he concluded, “The parties were communicating in a secretive fashion. The operative word is secretive. This is more akin to what criminal syndicates do if they are putting together a project.” Put differently, the logs suggested that Trump and Alfa had configured something like a digital hotline connecting the two entities, shutting out the rest of the world, and designed to obscure its own existence.
(From Kimbers link)
Wilburt - fortunately not
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
[quote=tjagain ]Wilburt - fortunately not
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
br />
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-us-2016-37825671
One poll and the key thing is the battleground states and the electoral college. trump is miles behind on these two counts hence that site I posted showing 70+% chance of clinton winning. it was 80+% a couple of weeks ago so he has closed the gap a bit.
"key thing is the battleground states and the electoral college."
This.
The media want it to seem close so people keep watching.
The reality is Clinton's miles ahead.
Yeah, upsets happen,but let's keep a lid on the hysteria.
I have a horrible feeling that Trump may win. His key demographic is one that normally has a very low turnout, and is consequently given a very low weighting in psephological models.
The US has a significant number of people who have lost hope and in consequence will vote for anyone who is seen to be sticking two fingers up to the political establishment, no matter how odious and mendacious.
Its not just one poll, ABC and the Washington Post (arguably best US media) have him ahead.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-trump-tied-democratic-enthusiasm-dips/story?id=43199459
Democrats have a headstart due to electoral college system and locations where they are strong. That is balanced by the high probability of large numbers of very shy Trump voters reluctant to tell polsters how they will be voting.
I think it could be a Trump win, unlikely but not 29/71 % as TJ's link suggests
The US has a significant number of people who have lost hope and in consequence will vote for anyone who is seen to be sticking two fingers up to the political establishment, no matter how odious and mendacious.
Trump looks like that to us but not them. He's a successful businessman and TV personality who they are used to seeing being smart and "in charge" on The Apprentice.
He got a shed load of family cash lost it screwed over investors, rode the system screwing more over sailed very close to the q got bailed out with more family money and still refused to declare his taxes.He's a successful businessman and TV personality who they are used to seeing being smart and "in charge" on The Apprentice.
In reality he's one of those businesses that you wouldn't want to do business with.
The Russian link is very worrying especially the communication with the new server that would only be possible if the address was provided to the Russian bank.
Have you read the project 538 methodology? It's a analysis of all the polls run through a mathematical model. His chances of about 25% sound right given the states and demographics he has alienated so far.
the high probability of large numbers of very shy Trump voters reluctant to tell polsters how they will be voting.
Id go more with ashamed than shy.
Wise words from Salman Rushdie
So, to recap. Trump will go on trial in November accused of racketeering, and again in December accused of child rape. He is a sexual predator, hasn't released his tax returns, and has used his foundation's money to pay his legal fees. He has abused the family of a war hero and... oh, but let's talk about some emails Hillary didn't send from someone else's computer, that weren't a crime anyway, because that's how to choose a president. Come on, America. Focus.
Sadly just like Brexit, Trumps campaign has stirred up more division and hatred
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_581a14d7e4b08f9841ac975a
mmmm Daphne....
sorry should have linked to this article
Sadly just like Brexit, Trumps campaign has stirred up more division and hatred
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/mississippi-church-burned-vandalized-trump_us_5819ef95e4b01f610e393372
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Chabuddy G (aka the mayor of hounslow) does Trump
The man has no shame
[url= http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/03/donald-trump-business-record-comparable-military-service.html ]compares making money to military service[/url]
And his Vietnam was avoiding STDs, apparently.
“It is a dangerous world out there. It’s scary, like Vietnam. Sort of like the Vietnam era. It is my personal Vietnam. I feel like a great and very brave soldier.”
From one of his little chats with Howard Stern.
I wonder what he thought when he saw this?
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- maybe that he'd be dating her in 10 years.
worse he has no judgementThe man has no shame
Making money is nothing like serving your country in the military and risking your life
no one can think that as his is just self interest which is clearly his defining characteristic
I'd like think he's just alienated voters by saying that, but sadly it seems those people voting for him just ignore stuff like this.
it is amazing he can say anythign from I dont pay tax, I grope and assault women and I will lock up the challenger and ignore the result if i lose and they just cheer him on
he is so unfit for office and it defies belief folk will want to put a tick next to his name on any ballot unless its an eviction vote on reality tv-- though he is mighty entertaining but only if he has no actual power
As usual Sam Harris gives an interesting perspective.
[url= https://www.samharris.org/podcast/item/the-lesser-evil ]The lesser of two evils[/url]
Anybody kinda want Trump to win, just for a laugh? 😆
With the big swings in the polls over the last couple of days, i'm actually thinking he is going to win.
Anybody kinda want Trump to win, just for a laugh?
Almost, but a man like that running the worlds most powerful country isn't really all that funny.