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He was always going to do that - clear from the coalition agreement
[The Tories] agreed to whip their MPs into supporting the referendum in any Commons vote, but allow them on take opposite sides during the campaign that would follow.
The referendum will get about 40% in favour on a turnout of less than 60%. Sorry.
should get more than 40% in favour of the referendum in theory the three main parties will support having the referendum. Only the tories will campaign against AV in the referendum so it stands a fair chance of being passed
tories will do their best to scupper any change from FPTP tho as they know its likley to mean they will never get into government again
I see what you did there DB 😀
Only the tories will campaign against AV in the referendum
This may be right, although Labour's position as a party will depend on the outcome of its leadership election and (conceivably) conference.
so it stands a fair chance of being passed
I'm not at all sure this follows.
It will be interesting (and I don't hugely care either way) but I can't escape the impression that Clegg & co have shafted themselves right royally.
This may be right, although Labour's position as a party will depend on the outcome of its leadership election and (conceivably) conference.
Indeed - [url= http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2010/jul/02/michael-white-electoral-reform-nick-clegg ]"On the Labour side, wannabe party leader Andy Burnham today dismisses voting reform as "a kind of fringe pursuit for Guardian-reading classes" – cruel but probably fair – while Ed Miliband promises to lead Labour in favour of a yes vote on AV if he wins. Backbenchers on both sides are busy plotting campaigns for a no vote."[/url]
Both Labour and Conservatives have a lot to lose - I doubt whether either would see an overall majority for a long time (if ever) with any kind of meaningful proportional voting - so it will probably not happen. A shame IMHO.
It also depends to a large extent on how labour people respond to the libdems entering a slash 'n' burn coalition with the tories. If the diagnosis is that the annoying third party is actually a natural ally of the ultra-thatcherite wing of the tory party (which there seems to be some evidence for) then there's not a great deal to be said for increasing their representation in parliament from labour's point of view.
There will also be plenty of disgusted libdem voters staying at home, whether out of contempt for Clegg or because the referendum only offers AV.
The tory vote will be much, much solider on this than either labours' of the libdems'.
I'm sticking to 40% as my prediction I'm afraid, we'll see how it rolls, and I'm willing to be pleasantly surprised by the state of the National Give-a-****-o-Meter. 🙂
