Chinese surveillance balloon - why?

What can a balloon do that satellites can’t?

Blend in at parties?

That's no balloon, that's a space station

I guess one advantage of a balloon is that, compared to a satellite, it's fairly stationary, so can observe the same target continuously. Plus the effect it has on the population, 'someone's watching us'.

Much cheaper too.

Not the first time balloons have been used against the US mainland.  Though for bombing rather than surveillance last time.

Domestic propaganda?

Pure speculation here. They may give plausible deniability. They could be made with standard commercial components so the Chinese government can just deny it's theirs. They might also be testing air defense systems - see how long it takes for aircraft to scramble and check it out, monitor and record the radar and other electronic signals, etc. This sort of thing has been going on for many decades, I don't really see it as a major development.

Bigger question is, why did the U.S. publicly announce it now when it has been going on for a while? They are openly blaming China so they are making a diplomatic point that they aren't going to just ignore it like they have done in the past. If China denies it, then the situation is that the U.S. is publicly calling China a liar. If China doesn't deny it, then that's going to be seen as an admission of guilt. Normally countries don't like to put other countries on the spot like that because they all spy on each other and don't want to turn every incident into a diplomatic crisis.

Anyone who has watched "Pirates...in an Adventure with Scientists" will know that balloons are great for looking down Victorian ladies tops.

Silly question but, How do they know its from China?

What route did it take to get there?

Was it tracked all the way etc?

Altitude and timing. At a MUCH lower altitude, the image resolution is far superior. The US knows the position and orbital track of every satellite which passes over its territory. They will schedule secretive tasks accordingly.

And, unbelievably, they are tricky to shoot down.
Fighters weapons are designed for aircraft that are moving, so get a bit baffled by something virtually stationary.

Tricky to shoot down, but given how slowly they move and the fact it's over the continental US it's not like they're under any time pressure.

Forgive my ignorance but how would the Chinese know where the balloon would even go with any degree of accuracy?

Or would they just have collected intel on Greenland instead if it floated over there?

And, unbelievably, they are tricky to shoot down.

Big pointy stick on a helicopter.

Just another reminder that from a political perspective the Chinese state is little more advanced than North Korea.

If you wanted to take it down then I should think you could target the envelope relatively easily with a laser built from off-the-shelf components.

How do they know its from China?

Everything's from China now, have you never checked the label on stuff you've bought in the last 20 years?

If you wanted to take it down then I should think you could target the envelope relatively easily with a laser built from off-the-shelf components.

awaits picture of midwest redneck with a surveillance balloon draped over the bonnet of a pickup with a homemade laser cannon in the flatbed...

Are they sure it hasn't just escaped from a kid's party?

awaits picture of midwest redneck with a surveillance balloon draped over the bonnet of a pickup with a homemade laser cannon in the flatbed…

I think you’ll find that real experts fasten their lasers to sharks.

Why would China use a spy balloon when it has satellites?

Just another reminder that from a political perspective the Chinese state is little more advanced than North Korea.

This is completely wrong. Only the French come close to the kind of long range asymmetric planning you see from the Chinese.

Determining how, and how easily, the US monitors and then shoots down a slow moving target at high altitude which must have minimal heat signature; is probably the balloon's intended final mission.

Determining how, and how easily, the US monitors and then shoots down a slow moving target at high altitude which must have minimal heat signature; is probably the balloon’s intended final mission.

When I was a boy growing up, I used to have a neighbour Mr Kerr the grumpy old bugger. He used to gleefully Burst any balls with his garden fork.

So - just find a still living version of Mr Kerr then set him to the task. I dare say it'll be completed before Antiques roadshow comes on

Forgive my ignorance but how would the Chinese know where the balloon would even go with any degree of accuracy?

I was wondering the same, because the article I read about it, (might have been Sky news, Sky news! 🤣) definitely implied some kind of directional control.

Big pointy stick on a helicopter.

I know you were being facetious, but helicopters have a surprisingly low operational ceiling. Google suggests 10,400 feet for hovering, which ain't much for a rescue helicopter in high mountains, Everest base camp for example is at 17,500 feet.

Going back to @Duggan 's question, how would chinese or anyone else know where it's going to end up?
Are they steerable, or do they just drift around?

It was perhaps intended to be used to monitor chinese citizens in China, but blew off course. That's my guess.

Surely they have a massive expanse of 'empty' land in Montana that would allow them to have a few goes at doing something - are they not playing about with lasers? If so, can they not fire it to pierce the balloon and either it descends rather than just falls? Or burst it completely and let the kit plummet. I'm guessing the debris would be able to be salvaged enough to work out where things are being sent.

Definitely a good way to have a slow moving solution to get real high definition shots of the land and also much harder to shoot down due to the operating height...unsure you could even get a plane to fly at it's operating ceiling and then machine gun at it...the bullets that miss are going to fall a fair distance and likely cause a fair amount of damage when they hit whatever they hit.

I know you were being facetious, but helicopters have a surprisingly low operational ceiling. Google suggests 10,400 feet for hovering, which ain’t much for a rescue helicopter in high mountains, Everest base camp for example is at 17,500 feet.

Yeah, but that's hovering. I'm not saying it is easy, but you can go up higher with a helo. MI-8 can fly slow at 4000m and people have jumped from helicopters _over_ Everest and landed at basecamp. Maybe still not high enough for someone armed with a long pointy stick to poke a balloon, but close.

Maybe they need another balloon and some people throwing darts at the first one from above.

Hmmm, what if they miss? Ok, darts with small parachutes. Lawn darts.

Blend in at parties?

I'm sorry but this deserves more recognition.

Mars helicopter with a long pointy stick

Mars helicopter with a long pointy stick

That's a really long stick to get here from Mars.

Blend in at parties?

Maybe it escaped from one on Chinese New year.

Just need the tip of the spear.

Are they steerable, or do they just drift around?

They are somewhat steerable. At different heights you have winds going different directions so if you can model the different heights/winds you can use that to steer them.
If you look up project loon there are some reports about it.
The figuring out what the winds are doing though is apparently pretty hard.
Guess it depends on how accurate it needs to be though.
One bonus if you are floating it over someone elses country at that height there is bound to be something slightly interesting whatever way you go.

Just need the tip of the spear

We were all laughing yesterday....makes you think.

Just send a professional darts player up in a hot air balloon to take it out. How do they know it’s from China and not from this guy? He looks like he may have just lost his favourite balloon

Weather balloon? Loads of these launched all the time. I read Biden wanted it shot down but the problem is debris.

Ok. So what are they looking to divert attention from ? Just a giant squirrel innit?

If you need an example of how hard it is to make a science out of balloon observation you only need to look at Google/Alphabet and Loom.

I’m 100% certain the US could both detect and kill the balloon if required (I have some experience with high power atmospheric penetrating lasers) but so long as they’re aware, they can simply hide anything it would see and not reveal any capability to shoot it down.

I have some experience with high power atmospheric penetrating lasers

Excellent!

I have some experience with high power atmospheric penetrating lasers

What about sharks?

Water does limit the range, but sure, why not?. How hard can it be?

China claims it is a wayward weather balloon...that clears it all up nicely then.

Or burst it completely and let the kit plummet. I’m guessing the debris would be able to be salvaged enough to work out where things are being sent.

they don’t know what’s in it or what it will do when it hits the ground.

I guess one advantage of a balloon is that, compared to a satellite, it’s fairly stationary, so can observe the same target continuously.

satellites can stay in one place, too. it’s called a geostationary orbit.