[Closed] Can cavendish defend the world road race title

Sounds like it's not a course which lends itself to can unfortunatley [i don't know much either, so have no idea what that means, just heard lots of people say it - maybe it has a lot of tigers on it?].

He will definitely defend it. Whether he'll be successful in his attempt to retain it is another question altogether.

no, too lumpy I'd say. Peter Sagan is rightly favorite I think

Its quite hilly so technically not one for Cav but he is a better climber now then he was. If the rest of team Sky - sorry, GB - can help him over the climbs he has a chance.

I'd like to see him continue to adapt to be like Thor Hushovd etc and be able to challenge in the one day calssics where there are decent climbs, perhaps this would be the sort of course to suit that sort of rider.

Who knows, not convinced he can but have a little hope that he will....

JTL FTW

Did,nt he win milan-st remo one year?,that was quite hilly.

I thought it was in the netherlands... Unklehomer is confused...

Is it just good form to let Cavendish defend it or would one of the other GB team actually stand a better chance of winning it.

By the sounds of it, it's a vaguely hilly one. Too hilly for Cav to be favourite in any case. Team GB putting all their eggs in a Cav shaped basket would be folly imo. I see Millar didn't make the team - is he injured, finished his season or just not make the cut?

interveiw yesterday was telling.

he said a stage win was a nice way to end his last day in the rainbow jersey

thought it was in the netherlands... Unklehomer is confused

So is Frank

Did,nt he win milan-st remo one year?,that was quite hilly.

Not sure where Millar is, i thought he was racing the ToB but he didn't start. Maybe just taking the end of the season off... he seemed on good form in the TdF.

Millar tweeted last week about having a long lingering problem and would therefore be calling an end to his season.

Bits of the Netherlands are quite hilly..

Shame for Cav really, having been the big thing in cycling for a few years, I'd say he's a better rider now than ever, but 2012 leaves him playing second fiddle in the tour, no olympic medals and probably losing his rainbow jersey.

Mind you, medals and green/rainbow jerseys put quite a lot of pressure on a rider. If he is to leave team sky, it'l be more of a fresh start with less pressure from the team and media expectation I'd think.

Millar ruled himself out on the basis that he is knackered.
Same for Geriant Thomas, spending all year focusing on the TTT for the Olympics meant he has had little road training and wouldnt be much use. Wiggo ruled himself out of selection for the ITT too though i cant remember why.

Cav doesnt really stand a chance, those two hills in the last 20kms will really test the field but I suspect that there will be a break before they get there and Cav wont be in that break. Sagan will be heavily marked, as will Gilbert and most of the Dutch, someone like Boom or Mollema could sneak into a break and stand a chance of a win though.

Although Sagan has a massive team behind him they are not capable of carrying him and bar Velits, lack any real experience. I think the marking will be such that it could be a real surprise this year, it just depends who makes the jump and whether they are considered too dangerous to let go, the olympics will be fresh in most peoples minds! so I'll stick my neck out and go with someone like Jeremy Roy, Boassan Hagan or Hesjedal.

At least one GB rider will probably be given free reign as they know its not a course suitable for Cav, cant see it being Wiggo though, maybe Froome or Swift.

loads of info and start lists here, (entries not down selected teams)
http://www.britishcycling.org.uk/gbcyclingteam/article/gbr20120820-gb-cyclingteam-2012-UCI-Road-World-Championships---Schedule-and-courses-0

GB Teams are here
Elite Men – Road Race
Mark Cavendish
Steve Cummings
Alex Dowsett
Chris Froome
Luke Rowe
Ian Stannard
Ben Swift
Jon Tiernan-Locke
Bradley Wiggins

Elite Men – Time Trial
Alex Dowsett
Chris Froome

Elite Women – Road Race
Lizzie Armitstead
Katie Colclough
Nicole Cooke
Nikki Harris
Sharon Laws
Emma Pooley

Elite Women – Time Trial
Wendy Houvenaghel
Emma Pooley

U23 Men – Road Race
Josh Edmondson
Scott Thwaites
Simon Yates

U23 Men – Time Trial
Sam Harrison
Joe Perret

Junior Men – Road Race
Germain Burton
Jon Dibben
Tao Geoghegan Hart
Chris Lawless
Alex Peters
Will Stephenson

Junior Men – Time Trial
Jon Dibben - 17th (+ 50s)
Tao Geoghegan Hart - 35th (+90s)

Junior Women – Road Race
Elinor Barker
Lucy Garner
Emily Kay
Jessie Walker
Molly Weaver

Junior Women – Time Trial
Elinor Barker

Erm.. defend, well yes he'll be there to defend it.
Will he win it?
Nope.
Gilbert, Sagan, Dekenhob(spelling) Boom, Bak, even a punt for Devolder or Chavanel.
But Cav, nahh..

Think of the course as a bit of South Downs/North Downs and a bit of flat in the mix.
It'll be ridden hard from the get go and Cav won't be able to sustain the pace.

Edit:

Is Boonan in it?? if so he'll win.

Does the fact that wiggins isn't in the time trial point to the fact they may go with him?

I'm wondering whether they'll stick JTL next to wiggo in roomes place to get him up the hills. Froome was looking pretty tired at the Vuelta.

Going on Cav's perormance over here, I don't think he's in for the win, physically or mentally - he's a spoiler to keep people distracted.

Wiggo has never ever won a sprint finish in his life at any level [ on that funny video of him in the Duphine [ spell] and it would have made more sense to have him in the TT trial given he is an Olympian.
Cant see him winning it tbh with his grinding style

@Junkyard
Wiggo won the 1st stage of the Tour de Romandie in a sprint finish against other climbers. Whilst not against typical sprinters, it's still a sprint victory.

Wiggo is in the GB squad as an engine like last years WC and the olympics. GB doesn't really have a 'puncheur' like Gilbert, Sagan et al. but the nearest in terms of style are JTL and maybe Cummings if let off the leash.
Cav's only chance is to be paced over the cauberg and the team chase down the inevitable attack

Looking at the course - the hills aren't particularly tough. The last four hills fall in the latter half of the race. The longest hill is a 3km climb at 3.2%. The last hill is 1km at 5.8%. And yes, he'll have about 20km to bring any breakaway group back.
It's not an ideal course for Cav - and memories of nine laps of Box Hill spring to mind but hopefully the peloton can play ball this time - and these climbs also have better spacing between them.

GB Teams are here
Elite Men – Road Race
Mark Cavendish
Steve Cummings
Alex Dowsett
Chris Froome
Luke Rowe
Ian Stannard
Ben Swift
Jon Tiernan-Locke
Bradley Wiggins

That is one hell of a team!

Are the GB women likely to do well?

Cav's victory last year was the result of three years effort, when copenhagen was annouced as the venue for 2011, Brailsford immediately set up a plan to ensure Cav would win it. 2012 was all about le tour and the olympics, retaining the rainbow jersey was sadly not a priority.

a Brit win will be luck, one of them needs to get into a break which gains enough time for the peloton to leave them to it knowing the terrain in the last 20kms isnt conducive to bringing them back. that said, if the break is too strong, there will be some favourities in it who could overhaul a Brit, too weak and they will be caught before the final climbs as the favourities will get their teams to bring the break back before the climbs...

Wiggo and Froome will be marked heavily. neither will make a break. No Idea what JTL is like at this level, 250kms at WC pace with tactics to consider etc, suspect he is there for experience considering the rumours he is off to sky in 2013. he certianly isnt capable of racing head to head with the likes of Sagan and Gilbert yet. Surprised Thibault Pinot isnt in the French team. he was a revelation in le tour and would have fancied his chances. Chavanel is a good call, a gutsy rider who likes a challenge but too strong to be allowed a break.

Armitstead should get into the top 3, I assume she will be team leader supported by Laws and Pooley and Cooke given a free role like the olympics. I'd be very surprised if Lucy Garner didnt win the Juniors and Pooley and barker should both finish in the top 3 of their respective TT....

I'm really looking forward to this race as there's no real expectation for anybody from GB to win it (I also don't think Cav will win it) and no strong favourite from any nation, I think it really is up in the air which should make for great viewing.
I'd have a cheeky punt on EVB though if I had to 😀

Boasen-Hagen, Gilbert, Sagan are the most likely might have a pound or two on that as a tri-cast.

Does the fact that wiggins isn't in the time trial point to the fact they may go with him?

No - it points to the fact he's knackered and no longer in good form.

is this on tv?

Surely Froomey would be our best contender - Good all rounder and can finish with the best of them?

Would be pretty amazing to see Cav win it two years in a row, but it sounds unlikely.

Could be anyone really, couldn't it. Which makes it all the more exciting 😀

Be interesting to see JTL in it too.

eurosport but steephill.tv will have feeds.

😆

Not sure how this race will pan out. The front end is a fairly rolling, but the end of the stage looks like a springs classic route. I can't see the win coming from a Sky style hit the front and ride tempo effort, but more like a handful of hard men riding away from the front. Surprised no one has mentioned Tom Boonen yet, there's nowhere near enough climbing to drop him out of the reckoning

bikebouy mentioned Boonen

my bad, i read his post before he edited it

he's right though, boonen is having a great year and will probably win

Valverde looked good at vuelta and course suits him .Gerrans looked good in Canada and again course suits another outside bet would be say albasini or perhaps nibili who has had a poor year.Sagan looked out of form in Canada and cant see boonen living with the attacks on cauberg on last couple of laps.
Obvious choice is still gilbert though

It's here, it's today, and I'm sadly a little excited!

I'm not writing the new slimmed down Cav off just yet. He seems to be going all out to play down his chances in the press, maybe just doesn't want to be the marked man. Head does say Boonen or Gilbert (who looked on awsome form in the vuelta.)

It's on the red button live at some point.
Last time the Worlds were held at Valkenburg it was a true Classics race with weather to match, win by Camenzind, so probably the course favours an all-rounded, seem to remember he win it from a break of 6 riders expect more of the same today. Looking forward to an afternoon of shouting at the telly!

Not sure if this was already highlighted:

[url= http://www.bikeradar.com/road/news/article/cavendish-rates-victory-chances-as-non-existent-35336/ ]Cav rates victory chances as non-existent[/url]

Might get a decent stream [url= http://www.vipboxsports.eu/ ]here[/url] or [url= http://forum.wiziwig.eu/threads/20232-Cycling-All-Streaming-and-TV-Info/page65 ]here[/url] ...

BTW its on the red button all day

"Live on red button 0935-1615 BST"

I'd be very surprised if Cav even finishes today.
Live on BBC Red Button and on EuroSport all day.

Millar reckons Cav will pull out after a few laps

Cav sat on the front for the first 50k.....mmmmm.No.

can't get it on the red button? What am I doing wrong?

Freeview channel 301

don't have freeview 🙁

edit: working now 😀