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@igm - I'll place a big bet that there's a few for whom it's been great business.
But for everyone else, it's just crazy maths.
You're missing the important bit of the maths... it means fewer Spanish, Dutch, French people will come here to study and work... and that's all millions of people here in England wanted. They aren't stupid, they know that Brexit means net economic loss... but they hope/think that will impact others more than it impacts them, and it's a price worth (others) paying to have less foreigners studying and working here. It's not "stupid", it's just hateful, fearful, insular and selfish. Until those people need the NHS, need care, need working supply chains, feel the pinch of rising costs... and at that point... you can be pretty sure that it's everyone else's fault... including the Spanish, the Dutch, the French... and on and on...
I'm currently ringing around trying to find anyone with spare essential consumables for my child's insulin pump due to broken supply chains... but, hey... fewer funny accents on the trains... go us!
@kelvin
Firstly my sympathies. Not a great situation.
Secondly I agree my maths does miss the point you make (deliberately actually) and I agree with the point you make.
All I was saying was even if you ignore all the good things that “£350m a week” bought us, and you shouldn’t, it was still cheaper for UKplc to pay the membership and accept the invigorated economy. Which I don’t think you disagree with.
But yes you’re right.
Oh there's plenty of immigration, just not the skilled kind...
https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1459568686168215567/photo/1
Don’t share that *** * *** **’s hateful bullshit please.
Give us 23,521 immigrants and ill gladly hand over that odious little naff
They aren’t stupid, they know that Brexit means net economic loss…
Bullshit they do. Some might, but five years ago most of them thought "Net Economic" was a Ford hatchback.
Today the ones with a braincell that isn't lonely are begrudgingly coming round to the argument of "short term pain for long term gain," and most of those are still in denial that "short-term" means, optimistically, the next couple of decades.
Ooh, I didn't realise.. but rightly or wrongly, brexit was supposed to solve all the 'immigration issues', if anything it's worse by thier own admission.
Ooh, I didn’t realise..
A handy rule of thumb:
If someone has a flag in their Twitter handle, they're likely to be a racist.
rightly or wrongly, brexit was supposed to solve all the ‘immigration issues’, if anything it’s worse by thier own admission.
And I called this long before Article Oh I Can't Even Remember Any More was triggered by the Maybot. Reduced EU immigration => increased non-EU immigration. If you voted to leave because something about brown people going home then well done because it will have and now is having the opposite effect.
Bullshit they do.
The genius of the Vote Leave campaign and that bus slogan… keep the Remain campaign talking about the economy, the “head” issues, when they knew full well the battlefield for the “hearts” of voters was what really mattered… “control” and being “British First”. There were of course some people who said that they were voting for the economic “benefits” of Brexit, but most accepted there was a cost, at least for the first decade. The campaign focus on the economics was always a sham, while nodding and winking about foreigners. And post referendum, it has been “end freedom of movement at any cost” all the way, without support for Brexit, or those proposing this form of it, dropping much at all.
Yup. Head vs heart is another Page 2 conversation.
The problem is, we haven't learned. Five years on and we're still playing Mr Logic from Viz. Half don't understand and the other half don't care.
This is why we're currently like 47:53 or something from 52:48 in 2016 despite five years of... what? We're talking about JIT supply chains and lorry driver permits and import duties, they're going "well, I'm sure there will be strawberries tomorrow and I didn't like fruit all that much anyway, at least there's going to be less darkies soon, did you see that nice Claudia on telly last night...? Ooh, I got my new blue passport last week, not that I ever go anywhere other than the Rose & Crown in Spain, the rest is a bit foreign isn't it."
They don't have to understand it. They have to want it. That's why Remain failed in 2016, and why it's still failing today.
Yep. The fact I see countries primarily as economic blocks, second as a culture (music, food, kilts if you’re of my persuasion) that can be offer to and borrowed from the rest of the world and as a poor third a way of picking teams for sports day, probably makes me unusual. Oh and a a good way starting a friendly argument- see also ethnicity and British (Celtic, Welsh) ethnicity.
I do find even after living in Yorkshire for almost thirty years some of the locals can’t quite understand that I’m not a Scots nationalist. (Though Brexit has made me more sympathetic to their view - a little more sympathetic.)
PS - “That’s why Remain failed in 2016, and why it’s still failing today.”
That’ll be why the majority want to rejoin. Not think we shouldn’t have left, that was a majority sometime ago, but actually rejoin.
My point was, rejoin (remain) is now a nominal majority rather than the landslide it should / could be. I appreciate that in Brexitland a statistically irrelevant victory is considered to be overwhelming, but really we're still on a knife edge and I miss fruit.
That’ll be why the majority want to rejoin.
They do. But you only need a (significant) minority of voters to support you to stay in government, and general elections are not referendums. There is enough support for a “keep out bilinguals, no matter the cost to those that live here” Brexit to keep the Conservatives in power long enough for opinions on Brexit to become as important as opinions on sail or steam power for Atlantic crossing passenger carrying ships. “No of course we shouldn’t have left, but we did, years ago, so what.”
I think you're right Cougar.
One half of the knife though who voted for brexshit are both dying off shortly and some changing minds.
Meanwhile a younger voter is arriving who does see the benefits.
It will however take a long time - like a decade..
Thing is, rejoining will be a hard sell, there will be no special rebates, concessions or bespoke pot sweeteners, just the standard T&C's, take it or leave it.
I still think that would be preferable to being out, but I'm not sure that message would get through with the current right wing media and government.
I wholeheartedly agree.
I doubt it'll happen in my lifetime, unfortunately. Our EU Member-Ship has sailed.
If someone has a flag in their Twitter handle, they’re likely to be a racist.
I actually can't belive I missed that, I think my brain blanks it out, a bit like adverts on the internet 🙂
Currently looking to buy a house and passed one over.. was good for the money but among other niggles, in the photograph of the frontage, you could see a big george cross flag hanging out of the next door neighbours upstairs window... must have been about 6 foot long.
I nexted that property pretty quick hahah.
I think the point I was making is that remain has been a majority (50+) for some time (edit - just checked, all but a couple of months since 2017), but it is only now that rejoin has become a majority.
Do I think it’ll all change next month? Of course not.
Do I think directions of travel matter? Yes. Doesn’t guarantee the destination of course.
Brexit won’t be over for a decade or so yet. Either way.
They do. But you only need a (significant) minority of voters to support you to stay in government, and general elections are not referendums. There is enough support for a “keep out bilinguals, no matter the cost to those that live here” Brexit to keep the Conservatives in power long enough for opinions on Brexit to become as important as opinions on sail or steam power for Atlantic crossing passenger carrying ships. “No of course we shouldn’t have left, but we did, years ago, so what.”
Yep..
The ‘so what’ ,once your used to lack of free movement,fruit,product choice(well for the poor) why would you want to rejoin?
You’ve already got a government bored of being held to account who tried to correct that and draconian anti-protest laws still in the balance.
The Pandora’s box of Brexit has a lot more surprises to reveal to us in the future.
Rejoining? LOL! Not in this lifetime. Definitely most of us will be fertilizer by that time. LOL!
I think we will never rejoin, maybe a better trade deal.
Most people have accepted that this is it, our reduced standard of living is already the norm.
The erosion of the Tory redwall promises is well underway and there is little or no kickback.
The only real question is how long can the Tories maintain this combination of debt and false promises - i guess 10 years then someone else will inherit the shit show.
Better than what?
Doesn’t guarantee the destination of course.
Brexit won’t be over for a decade or so yet.
I think even the ilustrious Jacob rees mogg was saying it will take about 50 years to break even.
So **** everything in the meantime?
Try getting a loan on a promise you might balance the books in half a century.
Most of us wil be 6 feet under by then, and it's the younger generation left holding the hot potatoe.
A trade deal i should have said.
I think the UK in it's current form has well and truly 'poisoned the well' when it comes to trade agreements.
Imagine if you were a rouge state and they sent Lizz truss to negociate. She'd probaly come back pregnant and redraw immigration laws for her slightly brown baby. the right kind of brown, nice tan. Not too dark.
Imagine if you were a rouge state
Like communist Russia?
The erosion of the Tory redwall promises is well underway and there is little or no kickback.
No fast choo,choos for you 🙂
At home we were just talking about this last week as my OH needs to travel for work to France, Belgium and possibly Spain after Christmas. I’ve previously worked extensively overseas and while for the EU countries just basically took my passport & credit card at zero notice, for other countries my first call would be to our Travel Agents to see what they needed to organise (Visa’s, health insurance, vaccines, certs etc, hotels etc).
The cracker is each country will have their own requirements so that’s 3 lots of paperwork that will need organising.
The whole freedom of movement thing made this a no brainier but nowadays ah well enjoy.
I think covid masked a lot of this as no-one was really travelling but people are starting to wise up after the fact, a year of van life driving around Europe requires more planning on being out of Schengen and ah the dream of retiring to Spain that was a thing.
I think the UK in it’s current form has well and truly ‘poisoned the well’ when it comes to trade agreements.
Dunno I thought the peeps who didn’t get a liz truss cut and paste had more favourable terms and tbh we’ve not really been let in on what greatness comes out of the Aus deal.
Everyone loves a desperate deal when they’re not the desperate one.
I think even the ilustrious Jacob rees mogg was saying it will take about 50 years to break even.?
No, he said it'd be 50 years before we know the outcome. Classic ignore the headline and look at what he actually said:
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jacob-rees-mogg-economy-brexit_uk_5b54e3b5e4b0de86f48e3566
The cracker is each country will have their own requirements so that’s 3 lots of paperwork that will need organising.
Yep, well aware, lived previously overseas.
Anyway, here's why Brexit happened, because they needed somewhere to 'hide' this lot:
"Research by tax campaigners found that estimated losses had risen from $427bn last year to $483bn (£359bn) in 2021, with the UK alone responsible for almost 40% of the total."
When the Papua New Guinea Courier is taking the pee it's got bad.
Imagine if you were a rouge state
Like communist Russia?
Chapeau 😀
Cougar
Full MemberThey don’t have to understand it. They have to want it. That’s why Remain failed in 2016, and why it’s still failing today.
OK yes I do agree but really, remain failed in 2016 because it was reality-based and was broadly a vote for what already existed., while brexit allowed people to vote for every possible brexit real, imagined or impossible and treated them all as a vote for the same thing. That's all. There was a majority for all those brexits but never a majority for any one brexit, let alone any achievable brexit.
Some good news…
https://www.ft.com/content/0b6f751d-363b-424d-a452-7a235e13eb00
A total of 170 jobs are to be created in Northern Ireland by one of the world’s biggest packaging companies, the latest business seeking to exploit the region’s “best of both worlds” post-Brexit trading status.
Ardagh Metal Packaging on Friday announced plans to build a $200m beverage can plant near Belfast, from which drinks will be exported both to Britain and EU markets.
Ah but your forgetting the fantabulos Teeside freeport, that’s going to create 1800 jobs.
A true Brexit bonus that couldn’t be done without Brexit apparently 😉
Until Frosty kicks the EU in the bollocks Kelvin
A reminder that undoing the NIP without having a working alternative in place won’t just upset relationships with our immediate neighbours…
https://twitter.com/chrismurphyct/status/1462106388709224457?s=21
https://twitter.com/newscientist/status/1462847077013241862?s=21
Read it yourself. No quote copied and pasted here to make it easy for you. I’m lazy. Not as lazy as our lackadaisical part time PM, with their obviously fake high energy and vim routine, but hey…
Forgive me. Forgive me. Forgive me.
Peppa pig world looks pretty good though
Ah but your forgetting the fantabulos Teeside freeport, that’s going to create 1800 jobs.
A true Brexit bonus that couldn’t be done without Brexit apparently 😉
Freeports, loved by folk who haven't a clue about what they actually are, disingenuous Politicians and criminals.
Freeports, loved by folk who haven’t a clue about what they actually are, disingenuous Politicians and criminals.
And interestingly a thing we er already had whilst EU members but were so good that the Tories couldn’t be arsed to renew the licences in 2012.
There's a new "government information" radio advert that uses a LBS owner as an example as to how the burden of red tape is about to go up yet again (thanks to Brexit). It's another "get ready for it now, don't wait" type advert. Sounds like the kind of thing that'll get shop owners swearing at the radio.
Do we actually know what “it” is yet?
Do we actually know what “it” is yet?
doomanic
Full MemberDo we actually know what “it” is yet?
I loved the original "brexit is coming. Get ready" adverts for that. "You have 1 month to prepare. Don't ask us what that means. Nobody actually knows. But if you're not prepared it's your fault".
Fingerprinting Visitors to Europe - Rick Steves Travel Forum
and as eveyone knew what they were voting for, i don't want to hear any complaints.
I suppose it is worth pointing out the cluster**** that is coming in a few days
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/less-than-a-month-until-full-customs-controls-are-introduced
So far customs haven't been done properly, as of jan 1st, with no capacity they are changing the system. Expect chaos.
^^ Yeah, nothing like getting rid of red tape is there?
as of jan 1st, with no capacity they are changing the system. Expect chaos.
they are supposed to be implement full checks from this date but I will bet it gets delayed and / or they simply ignore it given the total lack of ability to make the checks
Suddenly, preppers in the US are starting to look like they might be on to something.
they are supposed to be implement full checks from this date but I will bet it gets delayed and / or they simply ignore it given the total lack of ability to make the checks
It's not even full checks, they still aren't doing loads until, in theory, July. But, yes I tend to agree it'll get delayed. Now be a business with no real idea of what is going on, must be wonderful.
What was the estimated number of customs personnel required? Was it 50k? Add that to 100k lorry drivers, 40k nurses, countless care workers, teachers, police, and social workers...
Was it 50k? Add that to 100k lorry drivers
It was 50k, you are correct. And if you add that level of cost to everything you get.... inflation.
Baking in inefficiency overpaying or over-resourcing unnecessarily just hits further down the line. Stupid and futile.
It's here in handy pic form if anyone doesn't 'get it'.....
Inflation to 'likely to exceed' 5% by spring.
This is the beginning of the end for Brexit and the inevitable result of creating conditions where unskilled and semi-skilled jobs command unrealistically high salaries. Inbuilt inefficiency = Inflation = unsustainable.
It really just depends on how long it takes for the electorate to grow up sufficiently.
Errmmm- you mean where unskilled and semi skilled jobs command a wage you can live on? We have had cheap labour for too long. I do not believe Brexit was the needed tool for this but its one of its effects
Remember all those low wage jobs need topping up with benefits unless you are single and prepared to live in a dorm / shared room
the UK has been a low wage low tax economy for far too long.
would you graft for minimum wage?
Tj i am suprised by you response above, i assume you understand that the whole UK economy is geared to deliver based on the current minimum wage?
We have no significant industries or commerce that can sustain a higher wsge/low inflation economy- it would take decades of investment to achieve this (not to mention education)
Inflation is crippling to poorly paid people (not all are lorry drivers- think public sector) 10 years at 5% inflation is catastrophic for ordinary people.
Jam today, jam tomorrow is bollocks and i am a left leaning socialist, until we have a government and more importantly an investment culture that considers the well being of ordinary folks we will have to live with boom/bust.
Inflation causes revolution....
I agree with oldmanmtb. Simply increasing the wages of jobs isn't going to produce the kind of economy we both want.
Wages can only increase sustainably with productivity, not due to labour scarcity.
The latter just drives an inflationary spiral.
I dont think 'take home' income would increase dramatically, as what are in effect government funded job subsidies (in work benefits) would end up being cut.
Tj i am suprised by you response above, i assume you understand that the whole UK economy is geared to deliver based on the current minimum wage?
Of course I understand that and IMO its just wrong. We have a hugely unequal society in the UK far more so than most of Europe. We have a huge amount of in work poverty. We have a low taxation, we have low wages
Wages have been kept low for decades by having firstly a huge pool of unemployed and latterly also by importing cheap labour
this is unsustainable and causes great misery
Lets move our economy towards the nordic countries or Germany where taxes are higher, wages are much higher, the society is much less unequal and everyone is happier as a result.
To deny manual workers a fair wage stinks and causes huge social problems
I am not suprised by the attitudes shown in the few posts above mine but I am disgusted. Keep the plebs down so I can have my second skiing trip of the year and my posh cars. It stinks
this is unsustainable and causes great misery
It is clearly absolutely sustainable since it has been sustained for many decades if not centuries and shows no sign of changing any time soon. In fact people vote for it time and time again. I'll agree with the second part of the sentence though.
Its unsustainable because it causes a downward social spiral and we are now reaping the rewards for the few decades of this - its only since the Thatcher years that our society has become more unequal in this way and over the last decade or so the social damage has become worse and worse and it is changing - thats the point. We as a society can go with the change and make the best of it or we can rail against it and make life worse for people
The UK has appalling productivity in comparison to other similar economies, created in part by lack of investment in people, training and technology.
Government has been highly complicit due to a lack of a coherent industrial strategy in part due to a competitive dogma in the Treasury that meant everything is solely judged on price - unless of course, you’re mates with a Tory minister and you free access to the trough. Brexit has served to highlight these flaws - a lack of resilience in infrastructure, dependence on global supply chains and friction-free trade and access to cheap labour.
We also have an education system that has failed employers needs - churning out graduates in subjects no one wants who end up indebted with a loan they can never pay back.
because it causes a downward social spiral
Unsustainable means that it cannot continue like this - it doesn't mean something that you don't like. There is no reason that this can't continue, right the way back to feudalism. The only thing that will stop it is a revolution - and we're not very good at those in the UK.
causes great misery
It doesn't matter what you think of it, what I think of it or what its victims think of it. If you make yourself less productive as a small player this is what happens. End of.
The sensible option is to remain part of a large bloc that is determined to preserve a standard of living against parts of the world that will work for a dollar a day. And has the necessary clout to actually do it. Kicking them in the balls and exposing yourself to the world 'market' unnecessarily just because you don't like foreigners has the exact opposite effect.
It really just depends on how long it takes the clots who voted for this to realise it.
If labour costs rise, the solution is simply offshoring, automation, etc. Those low end, badly paid jobs exist largely because it has been easier to not invest. So where does that leave a badly educated non productive class of job seeker?
As for redistribution, voters keep on electing Tories, and doffing their caps to their betters. This has been the theme of the UK for centuries.
I am not suprised by the attitudes shown in the few posts above
Please understand that just because people are pointing out the situation we are in absolutely does not mean we're endorsing it. This is very important.
Please understand that just because people are pointing out the situation we are in absolutely does not mean we’re endorsing it. This is very important.
100%
The only thing that will stop it is a revolution – and we’re not very good at those in the UK.
A good time to effectively outlaw protest, though, just in case. Especially when it starts to leak out how many billions you gave your mates last year for shonky PPE and the like.
"A bit bookish."
"A nerd."
"Speccy four-eyed ****".
Has all that ---^ been fixed yet, or are have we still got a massive cohort of happily thick bastards?
"Dont need school, gonna go work with me dad on the site."
I dearly hope it's changed since I was at school (year above Jesus, just after Moses left) otherwise I can't see where the LoRa enabled unicorn is going to appear from.
Has all that —^ been fixed yet, or are have we still got a massive cohort of happily thick bastards?
A large scale opinion poll five and a bit years ago would say not.
Please understand that just because people are pointing out the situation we are in absolutely does not mean we’re endorsing it. This is very important.
+1
Oldman and others are just pointing out what we've said since the beginning of the whole Brexit saga - the only people who'll really benefit from Brexit are already so rich that in reality it won't actually impact their lifestyles, no matter how many more millions/billions they 'earn'.
But hey, they'll have it.
Looking forward to Patel upping my salary next year to keep up with inflation. I mean, they keep banging on about high pay so the Public Service will obviously be the first to benefit?
Can someone tell her she might need to ask Sunak for a few quid though as to repeatedly expect Services to fund rises out of existing budgets is causing a bit of a problem, especially the without warning ones that have not been budgeted for.
But hey, they’ll have it.
And they'll use it to buy themselves massive parcels of land to build gated mansions on. Truly a new Victorian Age, but only in the bad sense. And voted for by the very people it is going to **** over the most. It's quite a remarkable stitch up.
What on earth is Truss up to?
https://twitter.com/benchu_/status/1468599706708324355?s=21
Or is she doing a stand up job, but with a huge handicap (Brexit itself)?
You think Liz looks at actual figures?
You just need to wave that flag and believe.
I just want to know if she is doing brilliantly in a job made unbelievably difficult by Brexit, or if our trade problems are down to her performing poorly in her government role? I think we need to know if there’s any chance she could temporarily be PM.