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Does GDS stand for gigantic data senter? It would be about right if it did.
That feel good bounce from the Vote Leave team winning a majority at the election, and getting Brexit “done”…
https://twitter.com/ons/status/1237672324394082306?s=21
yep manufacturing exports had their biggest slump in 3 years thanks to Brexit, in the last quarter- BEFORE cornavirus hit
https://www.ft.com/content/392573ac-669d-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3
but the brexies will be able to blame the virus
Is it just me that's thinking that this here Coronavirus might be a bit of a dry run for brexit?
(I don't mean intentionally caused, rather as a model of what happens as soon as people can't buy shithouse roll and avocados.)
Not cynical enough. Convenient way of knocking off the weak and the lame that might cost long term... 😬
Surely we'll be getting a year extension to the status quo. I'd kind have hope the great and good have better things to think about right now.
There will not be an extension - remember the tories and their paymasters do not want a sensible deal. they want minimal or no compliance with the EU regs and do not really want a deal. This is the perfect opportunity for them to force thru "no deal"
My money is on there will have to be an extension.
I think TJ has it. No extension. The impact of the more immediate problem on trade talks and preparation for leaving the Single Market & Customs Union is not of concern to the Vote Leave team in government… they are already assuming No Deal or a light sketched out deal… and large companies and monied individuals being mostly left to sort things out for themselves… everyone else can go hang.
Kerley - "no deal" was always the aim. This crisis makes that easier.
Fascinating documentary on Cummings on tonight. Disturbing how on a number of recent political issues he seemed to guess right.
Well at least we are removing uncertainty for businesses in these troubling times.
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1250755451974803456
That's like removing the uncertainty of how long you have to live, by committing suicide.
Those shadowy backers were promised access to a mass sell-off of public sector services, with the guarantee of a state bailout when they ruin them whilst taking out huge dividends/salaries/bonuses and spiriting them offshore.
They funded the Leave campaign, they also know who else did, they know where the bodies are buried and they know they can expose the corrupt, stinking, festering, rotten shitshow for what it really is. They have to be given their payout or the game really is up for the Tories.
I can't help but think a delay is inevitable, but they're going to deny it for now.
They can't afford Brexit Voters losing heart at the moment.
There are endless ****ing idiots about who'll screw up lock-down to protest, Farage and other "it's only common sense init" types were spouting off about going out and enjoying the sun a few weeks ago.
Also, we won't know the full cost of CV19 until we know when it's going to end.
After this is over, like after the great bail out of 2008 the Chancellor will hold a conference and give us the facts of life. It's going to cost billions to keep the economy on life-support whilst we're in lock down, even with Furlough and other stimulus packages business are going to fail and people are going to lose their jobs reducing tax revenue and increasing costs.
From a political point of view, this is the ONLY time they could theoretically delay, even cancel Brexit when they'd 1) Have the EU agree to it 2) Survive it politically 3) do it without riots.
I honestly think Johnson or Sunak could stand outside No10, solemnly say that the world is now a very different place than it was and they need to unwind Brexit to protect jobs and house prices.
Yeah, they could... but they won't.
They can say what they like, for now. It’s just pacifying the gammons. They don’t need the headbangers stirring up trouble while they try to cope with CV
They know the huge magnitude of the financial shitstorm that’s coming. To willingly inflict another massive financial hit on top of that would be economic and political suicide.
They’ll carry on denying that they’ll ask the EU for an extension right up until the point that they do
Yeah, they could… but they won’t.
They can't. The real hands behind Brexit can end the Tories with what they know. Backhanders, promises of future backhanders, illegal funding, illegal Russian funding, abuse of data and social media on a scale far wider than Cambridge Analytica....
If you dance with the devil, you don't get to change the tune.
Boris 'dead in a ditch, lie down in-front of the bulldozers, go whistle for divorce bill' Johnson definitely wont perform a last minute U-turn
He might, he might not. Thing is, they basically have an opportunity here to Get Brexit Done and to blame all of the fallout on coronavirus. If they delay, then all of the damage of brexit arrives just as we start to get over coronavirus.
Yeah, they could… but they won’t.
They can’t. The real hands behind Brexit can end the Tories with what they know. Backhanders, promises of future backhanders, illegal funding, illegal Russian funding, abuse of data and social media on a scale far wider than Cambridge Analytica….
If you dance with the devil, you don’t get to change the tune.
I know, but it would be nice wouldn't it?
Actually, as for backers, I don't know about that. It was the Tories who joined the EU in the first place and the Tories who campaigned for us to remain (a lot more than Labour under Corbyn did).
All the major business groups. Which represent the core of their backers have been remain / soft Brexit since the outset.
I don't believe there is some great conspiracy (from within the UK anyway) the GE showed it really was the 'will of the people' egged on by the Tabloids (who blow with the wind) and populists like Farage.
Is this Boris - what would be the chances he would need to take a one day trip to Afghanistan on the same day as a key Heathrow vote - Johnson?
The optimum Boris improbability index has to be a thing - in any situation what is the chance toast lands butter side up in the Johnson household.
It was the Tories who joined the EU in the first place and the Tories who campaigned for us to remain (a lot more than Labour under Corbyn did).
Brexit has fundamentally changed the Tories into a proto-populist rightwing cabal. Sensible voices were purged, made to recant or just told to shut up if they wanted to keep their jobs.
There was always a wing of the Tories that were swivel-eyed nationalist notions, but now the wing has become the body.
It wouldn't surprise me if they went through with it, what better way to pay off all the bills than setting yourself apart from EU laws etc..To entice companies to set up here
They have no reason not to go through with it. And by that, I mean no reason that applies to any of them personally, rather than to these nations as a whole. All this reasoning about companies getting a double wammy hit, and state agencies already struggling to be ready for the end of the year before having to spend months on mitigation for the current crisis… all amount to nothing unless there is a way that those now in government can gain personally or politically more from a delay than they do from pushing on through with the current timescales…
GE showed it really was the ‘will of the people’ egged on by the Tabloids (who blow with the wind) and populists like Farage.
Once again, more people voted for pro-remain parties.
All parties will be weakened if the UK’s quits key EU bodies such as the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control in March 2019, the BMA said. Without a deal this will create “considerable uncertainty about the UK’s ability to coordinate pandemic preparedness”
Tackling global outbreaks such as coronavirus could become harder if the UK loses access to the EU’s early warning system for cross-border threats without finding an effective replacement, according to an alliance of health bodies.
Public health is at risk if health is not made a priority in the forthcoming negotiations with the EU
Once again, more people voted for pro-remain parties.
Once again that doesn't really mean anything.
No, it doesn’t … except in reply to some “will of the people” nonsense about Brexit and the General Election. It wasn’t a referendum, so neither claim has any more validity than the other.
leave.eu spent the last week or so posting cheery good news covid stories all over their social media channels, then today led with "It's time to end the lockdown and get Britain moving!". They seem to be getting mostly torn a new arse but there's obviously a lot of crossover between Get Brexit Done and Get Dying Of Corona Done.
Once again that doesn’t really mean anything.
It does if your argument is that the election proved Brexit is the will of the people.
There’s a good article by Polly Toynbee in the Guardian today
Boris Johnson is the wrong man in the wrong job at the wrong time
She concludes, accurately:
“If Johnson blunders on (with Brexit) as the economy collapses, then we will truly know we are in the hands of fanatics”
She’s bang on. The economy is going to be so screwed after all this that to pursue the same timetable for Brexit, with no extension, would be suicidally reckless.
Binners - don't get your hopes up = the paymasters have to collect and this is a huge opportunity for them as they can hide the economic damage from Brexit and blame it on covid.
It will be no deal in november.
I'd really love to disagree, TJ, but I can't see any way that this is going to do anything other than further the drive for the hardest of Brexit, or indeed a no deal.
Binners – don’t get your hopes up = the paymasters have to collect and this is a huge opportunity for them as they can hide the economic damage from Brexit and blame it on covid.
It will be no deal in november.
Toynbee makes the mistake of thinking that the real leaders behind Brexit give a shit about anything other than accumulating and squirreling away wealth. Brexit is the heist of a lifetime.
to pursue the same timetable for Brexit, with no extension, would be suicidally reckless
You're absolutely right, Binners, but that doesn't mean they won't do it. Apart from the the basic character of the key players, you could say that only prioritising PPE and testing 3 weeks after lockdown, not 3 weeks before, would be have been suicidally [or homicidally] reckless.
You guys miss the elephant. Those who pay Johnson and Co want a no deal brexit. This is a huge opportunity for them.
And in news from a parallel universe....
From BBC newsfeed
No extension to Brexit transition - Gove
Cabinet minister Michael Gove has insisted there won't be an extension to the Brexit transition period past the end of this year.
Appearing remotely in front of the Brexit Select Committee, Mr Gove said "we believe it is entirely possible to conclude negotiations" on the current timeframe.
He said "just shy of 100" civil servants have been redeployed from work on a Brexit deal to dealing with the coronavirus.
He predicted the odds of a deal are "better than two to one."
Michael Gove is a piss artist and a ****.
Surely nobody with anything between their ears (which rules out Gove) seriously thinks this countries economy will be in any fit state to be plunged into another massive economic shock at the end of the year.
It would be economically, but more importantly politically suicidal!
It would be economically, but more importantly politically suicidal!
I guess it depends if the real backers of Brexit will have run out of patience for their payouts by then.
Remember, they can sink the Tories and possibly land a few people in jail or make them public enemy number one with a 'leaked dossier'. It might be worth the risk if you are looking at it from their point of view.
seriously thinks this countries economy will be in any fit state to be plunged into another massive economic shock at the end of the year
Alternatively, this is the perfect time to do it. Any downsides can be blamed on COVID and when the global economy starts to pick up as everything returns to (something more like) normal it'll be Bulldog Bozza's Brexit Boost™.
I'm sure the agents of Brexit see this as a perfect opportunity to manufacture a no deal and hide it within a coronavirus.
November is still some time away however. I wonder what the public mood will be by then? I can't see the public just rolling over and accepting a catastrophe. The tub thumping, flag waving Brexiters are not going to be the loudest voices come Autumn.
In the 'new Labour leadership' thread a couple of months back most had surrendered to the idea of 10 more years of Tory rule. I suggested things are far more random than that and Labour should attune themselves to the possibility of unexpected events. My response then was 'coronavirus anyone'.
There will be more unexpected events before Autumn. Labour need to get their act together. Asking about exit strategies and finger pointing with regards preparedness (Labour weren't really flagging up this emergency either) is not effective opposition. They need to address both Brexit and the broader economic mistakes that helped get us here and are about to be repeated.
It's an amazing statement that...
"there won’t be an extension to the Brexit transition period past the end of this year."
"we believe it is entirely possible to conclude negotiations" "the odds of a deal are “better than two to one.”
So you're committing to no extension on the basis of 2:1 odds of getting the job done in time. You wouldn't use that logic if you were getting some decorating done never mind this.
But as me and Bails said, the problem is that this is an opportunity to smash through brexit without caring in the slightest about economic damage because it can all be blamed on corona, and all the brexies will be happy that the EU and the states are also struggling even if it's way less. Whereas if they delay it til after corona, all the brexit damage arrives just as we're starting to get over corona, and Boris and Gove and Farage and Raab end up hanging from a lamppost.
Boris and Gove and Farage and Raab end up hanging from a lamppost.
Oh don't tease me.
November is still some time away however. I wonder what the public mood will be by then? I can’t see the public just rolling over and accepting a catastrophe. The tub thumping, flag waving Brexiters are not going to be the loudest voices come Autumn.
But by then it will be too late. An extension has to be requested by mid-summer (some time in July, iirc). Worse, the legislation already passed puts that decision wholly in Bloody Stupid Johnson’s hands; Parliament don’t get a say. We’re well-and-trulied already.
It's always been the aim to have no deal and to blame the EU
Corona gives them something to blame for the economic damage
Alternatively, this is the perfect time to do it. Any downsides can be blamed on COVID and when the global economy starts to pick up as everything returns to (something more like) normal it’ll be Bulldog Bozza’s Brexit Boost™.
+1
its absolute raving madness, but here we are
Alternatively, this is the perfect time to do it. Any downsides can be blamed on COVID and when the global economy starts to pick up as everything returns to (something more like) normal it’ll be Bulldog Bozza’s Brexit Boost™.
Yep it’s not like you can stage a massive protest march 🙂
Probably crash out of talks June/July all down to the EU and then sometime later the fantastic UK-US deal will be unveiled in all its majesty.
Or not, strange times.
It’s always been the aim to have no deal and to blame the EU
Corona gives them something to blame for the economic damage
I think this is how it will pan out
PnilO
As you say, an extension needs to be requested by mid summer, ergo my suggestion that Labour flag up the impending danger of sailing into a no deal brexit with a skeleton brexit staff. Opposition MP's really need to bring the focus on to economic issues. The media also. They missed the threat posed by coronavirus as much as any politician. Now they indulge in endless articles and bulletins about wether wearing a mask gives you a false sense of security, wether you can sunbathe or not and many other coronavirus questions that have become completely rhetorical. Meanwhile the government is driving the bus off the edge of a cliff.
Corona gives them something to blame for the economic damage
I dunno - when the rest of the world returns to normal and things are still shit here people might take notice.
you are most charitable in your assignation of intelligence and wit to the general public, molgrips
I’m sure the agents of Brexit see this as a perfect opportunity to manufacture a no deal and hide it within a coronavirus.
It's a great year to hide bad news.
you are most charitable in your assignation of intelligence and wit to the general public, molgrips
Trust me, I'm not. But eventually people complain when things aren't good. Regardless of why.
But eventually people complain when things aren’t good.
Which is where establishing a default blaming of 'others' in advance comes in handy.
Foreigners, non true believers, traitors.......etc.
The Care home BS wasnt the only lie of Johnson's blown up today
Surely that is the nail in the coffin of NI businesses as they try & climb out of the Covid recsession
Yep, remember the bit on the news where Boris said this on camera to NI businessmen?
"If any business was asked to fill in extra paperwork, they should telephone the prime minister “and I will direct them to throw that form in the bin”, he told them."
He is a malignant, immoral, pathological, lying piece of *hit.
I thought I couldn't begin to think how messy Brexit was going to be by the end of this year.
Now that sentiment is a total underestimate.
Cataclysmic now comes to mind.
Horrific.
Good luck farmers.
The UK government is drawing up plans to slash tariffs on US agricultural imports to advance progress on a trade deal despite concerns from some ministers and Conservative MPs about the damage they could cause to British farming.
https://amp.ft.com/content/e583b8a2-4074-4fa9-9c43-08a9979e0bee
The deadline for extending the transition period beyond December 31st was seven weeks away on Tuesday just gone, June 30th.
If the aim of getting some non-key worker kids back at school on June 1st fails, which at the moment looks very unlikely, the parents won't be back at work turning the economic hamster wheel again.
This might, just might, make Boris backpedal on not asking for a transition extension. Will also depend on how the lockdown release pans out in Germany. The race is on between Boris and the EU to have their "blocs" up and running again, to try and get an advantage during the talks.
Has anyone got Boris' number?
Cheers
It is a bloody great year to hide a bad Brexit, though isn't it?
This is one of Trump's motivations for forcing the US economy back to work and to hell with the casualties. That piece of shit has actually spotted what he thinks are 'opportunities' in a global pandemic. And he is going to be our biggest, bestest, biglyiest, post-Brexit buddy.
**** Brexit.
Oh, nearly forgot.
**** Boris too.
Excellent M. Barnier.
Blimey, just read that from M.Barnier.
In diplomatic speak that's about as close as you can get to:
"**** off with your childish shit and get back to us when you've grown up".
What a total embarrassment.
Quelle merde-show.
I was listening to a podcast the other day (Remainiacs) and they made an interesting comment about the plan to train up 50,000 NEW border customs staff ready for the result of this absolute shit-show.
Someone pointed out the rather staggering number of 50,000 staff just to sort the borders/customs etc out for the UK compared to the fact that the entire European Commission employs 'only' 32000 people. All this talk of red tape, fat cats, bureaucracy etc. but how much red tape will all this generate & what does the wage bill of 50,000 new customs staff look like? Assuming £30k per person for a salary, you are looking at £1.5bn before you even get to pensions etc.
Assuming £30k per person for a salary, you are looking at £1.5bn before you even get to pensions etc.
And the NHS will be getting £350m a week too!
I'm sure there's a fully costed plan.
**** Brexit.
but how much red tape will all this generate & what does the wage bill of 50,000 new customs staff look like?
All EU IT systems which we presently enjoy full access too will all have to be duplicated, at absolutely vast expense.
What do you reckon the chances of those systems, plus all the rest of the infrastructure needed, being in place before the end of the year?
Interesting from that, that the UK is trying to downgrade data protection legislation.
Now who still thinks the the NHS tracking app data would be safe with doms Cambridge analytica pals?
Did anyone see Gove being worried that the EU were not doing enough to protect Brits abroad?
As a Dane living in the UK I wanted to punch the screen when I read that.
What do you reckon the chances of those systems, plus all the rest of the infrastructure needed, being in place before the end of the year?
They are straining every sinew to ramp up capacity. Herculean effort. Following the science.
https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/1262343541440774144
To be fair, after out complete shit show handling of the Corona virus pandemic, the rest of Europe is probably glad to see the back of us.
Mikkel
Did anyone see Gove being worried that the EU were not doing enough to protect Brits abroad?
As a Dane living in the UK I wanted to punch the screen when I read that.
As a brit living in Germany, the brexiters rhetoric always worries me, usually later to be soothed be the pragmatism of the German authorities. But once again Gove has raised my fears (and blood pressure) that we will be used as pawns and cast aside for these retards ambitions and that they will **** it up. It isn't nice living with that kind of fear hanging over your life, I am not wealthy enough and too old to start my life from scratch again.
I think it will be delayed by another 6 months to a year. Otherwise it might be too much of a shock to businesses.
Nobody will blame them either for delaying it.
It will not. They want no deal and the chaos
Hmmm, maybe a new career as a customs official is calling me!
To be fair, after out complete shit show
handling of the Corona virus pandemicof everything the Government have done in the last three years, the rest of Europe is probably glad to see the back of us.
FTFY.
Keep an eye on the news at the end of the month regarding Nissan. There's a story floating around on various news sites that they're planning to build a couple of Renault models in their Sunderland plant.
If this proves to be true, which we should know by the end of the month, I think it's very good indicator that a no-deal is pretty much nailed on.
if its no deal Nissan will not be building any new cars in the UK as they will not be able to sell them into the EU without a financial disadvantage
if its no deal Nissan will not be building any new cars in the UK as they will not be able to sell them into the EU without a financial disadvantage
Thats why they'll be bringing Renaults here, they'll then only build RH drive Nissans and Renaults for the UK market and any other market where there is an existing trade deal