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Sunak will not get the tory leadership unless its a coronation. Remember that under their rules if there is more than one candidate it goes to a vote of the membership. too many ruthlessly ambitious people there to allow him that coronation so it will go to a vote of the membership and the racists will ensure he does not get the leadership
Sunak is very popular with the members.
So the polls say but voting for him as a leader - I would bet my house they would not if given a choice of him and say Hunt. the racism running thru the party and especially its activists make me confident that is so
All this aside - I am starting to think that Johnson actually wants to get fired!
Although I suspect for some people an ability to use a comb is probably sufficient.
Ernie, your continued admirable effort to try and divert criticism of Johnson, using every trick in the book, is fascinating.
You don't recall me describing Johnson as a narcissistic attention-seeking clown? How selective your memory is Kelvin.
And I have no idea why you think me drawing attention to Johnson's apparent inability to use a comb somehow constitutes diverting criticism away from him. That really is bizarre.
Johnson is a Tory prime minister, I never defend Tory governments.
However I am always determined that criticism is based on actual fact.
And the fact is that if Johnson is replaced he will almost certainly be replaced by someone more right-wing than him, and most certainly not more left-wing.
Johnson is not a true politician and consequently he is not a true Tory. He is a clown, a showman, who happens to have chosen politics/the Tory Party as a vehicle for his act. And like all showman he craves to be loved by his audience.
He didn't choose politics because he wanted to change the world, he chose politics because it offered him the limelight.
He has without doubt shifted the Tory Party more to left than any other time in the last 40 years. He has done that because without the handicap of ideological commitment he has been able to see the serious limitations of neo-liberalism, and he also accepts that the people he wants to love him are no longer prepared to swallow austerity.
Yet despite all this people who claim to be anti-Tory are so blinded by their hatred of Johnson that they are willing to accept a more right-wing Tory prime minister. For these alleged anti-Tories a more competent Tory prime minister is the primary objective, if they are more right-wing it is apparently a price worth paying.
For those who doubt the right-wing lurch that will take place post-Johnson just look at the recent comments in the right-wing press, the Tory Party kingmakers :
We can all now see why he was so desperate to protect Cummings. Without him, the lack of leadership and ability is glaringly obvious to all.
I would bet my house they would not if given a choice of him and say Hunt.
Bet something far smaller! I suspect we'll find out, and that will be exactly the choice they get given to make. And I wouldn't risk betting more than 2p on Sunak losing that. Could go either way.
He has without doubt shifted the Tory Party more to left than any other time in the last 40 years.
The pandemic caused a spell of support for people and businesses unlike any of recent decades. That's over. Wake up to what that means for the worse off in society, this lot of Conservatives are making sure the burden falls on then. Nothing "left" about the last budget, or any announcement since. Nothing "left" about Johnson. Or Sunak.
I think we underestimate just how toxic the accusation of being a 'Pro-EU' will be for Hunt, who campaigned for Remain in 2016. The lack of Brexit ideological purity is partly what did for May after all and the party has largely purged itself of anyone with moderate values on that matter since she left.
I actually think Sunak will play pretty well with the parliamentry party (Who are less bothered about race and just want a winner who'll cut taxes and regulations) and the wealthier parts of the country, but amongst the activist base and up in the red wall...
There's an an outside chance of a Sunak coronation to avoid the public spectacle of swathes of the membership going full BNP in order to reject him but my money's still on Truss or a random stalking horse that nobody's talking about yet.
how toxic the accusation of being a ‘Pro-EU’ will be for Hunt
It will be. But less so now that we are no longer EU members... Johnson "got Brexit done"... the selection criteria members use won't be quite the same as last time.
Good defense Ernie
However your postings on Johnson come over as deferential forelock tugging to me and I do not accept that Johnson pulled the party to the left - he has no ideology. He has not really pulled the party to the left - just spent money he had to and the covid support was very much directed to the richest
Nothing “left” about the last budget, or any announcement since.
Well if you can't see the last budget as significantly to the left of all other Tory budgets of the last 40 years you have outed yourself as a political illiterate.
And it puts you at odds with political commenters right across the board - from left to right.
Of course you could be right Kelvin and all those comment writers in the Guardian, Independent, FT, Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail, Daily Express, etc could be wrong. So you stick with it if that's what you really believe.
you have outed yourself as a political illiterate
Why thank you. High praise indeed.
Good defense Ernie
Thanks TJ but I'm not defending anything.
You say you would prefer Johnson replaced with Sunak/Gove/Hunt (I am assuming that you understand that the next leader of the Tory Party won't be a Labour Party member) I say that I would rather Johnson wasn't replaced.
You claim to hate the right-wing but you appear to prefer a lurch to the right under Hunt, a man who is totally associated with the failed policies of austerity.
And of course a lurch to the right in the Tory Party would almost certainly result in a lurch to the right in the Labour Party.
with Sunak in charge of taxation and spending, yet the mud isn’t sticking to him, which is interesting.
Yet despite all this people who claim to be anti-Tory are so blinded by their hatred of Johnson that they are willing to accept a more right-wing Tory prime minister
I think the electorate might still be in the honeymoon period with sunak, due the to the furlough scheme. He was seen very visibly to be spending (tax payers) money on things. Plus he's quite dishy and sleek compared to the average tory MP - he can string a scentence together.
I don't think it's dawned on a lot of people lower earners that the removal of the £20 per week universal credit and the the social care grab on older peoples houses is going to ablsoutley shaft them, and thier children and grandchildren.
Not to mention increasing their NI next year (while cutting the taxes the banks pay).
Good defense of your position I meant Ernie
You say you would prefer Johnson replaced with Sunak/Gove/Hunt
NOpe - never said that. I want him to struggle on losing more and more credibility and to lose the next election badly then get taken to court for his corruption. I want him publicly humiliated, ruined and disgraced
quite honestly I don't really care too much any more about the westminster parties. All cheeks of the same arse.
Currently we have a choice of Tory, tory enablers, tory lite or green and green have no chance of real power under our pseudo democracy at westminster
I want him publicly humiliated, ruined and disgraced
So it's really a personal grudge against someone.
Personally I couldn't possibly care less about Johnson. He is not important to me.
In contrast my ideal scenario would be for Johnson's new Tory direction/strategy not to be discredited, that would be a disaster which could signal the return of austerity.
Much better if the Tories and Labour were competing with each other to offer voters a credible social democratic agenda.
Back in the days before Thatcher both the Tory Party and the Labour Party were social democratic parties, the differences being that the Tories was a business friendly social democratic party whilst Labour was a worker friendly social democratic party.
I would be happy to embrace that situation once again. And before anyone says 'ah but this is 2021 stop living in the past' it should be remembered that reflects much of current European politics today. And as I understand it what they do in Europe is apparently the benchmark.
So it’s really a personal grudge against someone.
dunno if that is the right description but I loathe tories with every fibre of my being for the immense cruelty they have deliberately inflicted and the endless needless deaths
Its not personal to Johnson - I would wish that on any tory PM
Not sure I would describe the pre thatcher tories as "social democratic" but I know what you mean - they used to sit around where the CDU do in germany or not much further to the right than that compared to the far right racist party of hatred they have become.
If Johnson is discredited and loses th enext election then we get a labour government
But other than my loathing for tories I really have little interest any more with Westminster.
My ideal scenario is that Johnson struggles to hold on while discredited, Stays to the election while the tories squabble behind him, loses the election really badly destroying any credibility of the tories. they splinter and he is personally disgraced and ruined. Boom - happy TJ as thats the end of the tories for a while and Johnson for ever
Unlikely I know but one can hope
Not sure I would describe the pre thatcher tories as “social democratic” but I know what you mean
Well my definition of social democracy is a mixed economy and universal welfare state. The post-war consensus was very much based on that.
OK
thats not the definition I would use. I shall go and read up see what others think
Edit - I think you need a socialist stance to be social democratic. And that seems to be an accepted definition
thats not the definition I would use.
I think we also have quite different definitions of fascism TJ so that is not entirely surprising 😉
My impression was always that Ted Heath was to the left of Tony Blair.
Similar sort of place after his first term. Blair was always a tory in the wrong party. He was interested in power and wealth and thought joining the labour party was his best way to acheive that. Certainly the most right wing labour leader I remember
I can't remember the details now, but I seem to recall that in the 1970's Heath and Thatcher fought over the very soul of the Tory Party (Thatcher of course winning out and starting the slow erosion of the post-war consensus).
All this aside – I am starting to think that Johnson actually wants to get fired!
Perhaps that is correct - he'd be able to charge more on the after dinner speech circuit if he got fired. If he simply lost the election, it might damage the brand.
Unlikely I know but one can hope
Yup. I doubt his ego would allow him to go into a situation where he thinks the chances of losing are high and, unlike trump, he isnt completely deluded so would be able to assess that realistically.
thats the end of the tories for a while
Seemed like that when Blair was up against Hague, IBS & Howard. How times change!
Yep he thinks that if he gets fired he can hold a rally then get his loyal ****wits to storm parliament.
Jacob Cream Cracker stripped to the waist and wearing a top hat with some antlers attached to it.
Personally I couldn’t possibly care less about Johnson. He is not important to me.
> checks thread title <
Are you sure you’re posting in the right thread?
Unlikely I know but one can hope
It’s the hope that gets you.
If he simply lost the election, it might damage the brand.
Interesting point. Would he be worth more if ejected by his party, rather than having lost an election? I think you might be right.
he isnt completely deluded so would be able to assess that realistically
I often wonder if Gove really did “put the knife in” when Johnson was going up against the others to replace Cameron. Or if he knew he didn’t have the support to win at that point, so wanted to pull out of the race to avoid losing, and to do so without looking frit. Johnson and Gove have been very supportive of each other since.
Rich_s, if johnson moved to the after dinner circuit he would be so permanently pissed he would be dumped after his first couple of gigs - and that's before he starts get handsy with waiting staff and female guests.
Would be fun to watch - from a distance; pity the poor bastards who have to get close to him.
What a repugnant thought.
Fathers - lock up your daughters; johnson's in the house tonight...
Husbands - lock up your wives...
A sweating, fumbling, mumbling, groping lump, spouting random latin phrases, stinking of booze and BO...
'stinking of booze and BO…' and wee (apparently). I'd prefer him to carry on disgracing himself and his party. A smoother operator would enhance their chances of re-election. Austerity is not necessarily a vote loser. Look at the state of poverty in Cornwall and they continue to elect Tories. Same in France, everywhere you go you see businesses offering pain.
Personally I couldn’t possibly care less about Johnson. He is not important to me.
> checks thread title <
Are you sure you’re posting in the right thread?
So only people who feel Johnson as an individual is important to them should post on this thread?
Only people who have strong personal and emotional feelings about him should express an opinion?
Well I guess that does indeed probably reflect your attitude Kelvin.
Truss v Sunak
I think Truss will win, she is seen more as a party person than Sunak and more likely to do their bidding...
Sunaks personal PR campaign is not well received in his (my) constituency, no flyer or social media from Sunak mentions the Tory party or contains their logo. Rishi is not a "party" man Rishi is a "Rishi" man
His propaganda that drops through the door is all about "him" and what 'he" has done for the country. The word Conservative, Tory etc is absent and he had his arse kicked this year by Tory central office for the above approach.
I think he might have built up few enemies and is no longer the shoe in he thinks he is, also the Tory faithful round here thinks he a bit of "spender" and gives too much to the great unwashed.
I hope it is Truss, she will be a disaster with all but the die hard tory voter.
I joined the conservative party last year just so I get to have a say in the next PM if they change between elections.
Did a chargeback on the £4 membership donation too!
Your style, I like it.
Bookies seem to favour Johnson going next year, as in 2022.
As for the next leader odds, Sunak at near 3/1... followed at a distance by Gove, Truss, Hunt, Patel, Javid in that order, before the odds get decidedly long.
Not a wholly encouraging outlook is it?
143 pages and I'm now angry enough to comment...
France have just cancelled talks on immigration over Johnson's open letter of demands.
Surely you could see this coming from a mile off? Playing straight into his hands and giving him the opportunity to bang the nationalist drum and spout more anti French, anti-EU crap.
And oh look, headlines back onto his agenda again.
He's a master at this and they fall for it every ****ing time.
'they' voted him in fairly recently so to now admit 'they' made a mistake is going to be hard for them.
Yeah, but the French don't really care what happens here? They've got their own issues to work on and elections coming up? Far more important that playing tricks on Boris.
Doesn't matter though does it? Job done.
‘they’ voted him in fairly recently so to now admit ‘they’ made a mistake is going to be hard for them.
Support might be falling for Johnston, but here in the former red wall, the justification has always been that there was no other choice. Those in the centre ground are probably now wavering on that school of thought, but it's still a strongly held belief amongst a great many people, that this is simply the least worst option we have.
Why would the French have any concern over internal UK politics? they don't and should not.
France have just cancelled talks on immigration over Johnson’s open letter of demands.
Surely you could see this coming from a mile off? Playing straight into his hands and giving him the opportunity to bang the nationalist drum and spout more anti French, anti-EU cra
But the French now have their own nationalist populist on the rise. Their own Boris, if you like:
‘Immigration is war’: an interview with Éric Zemmour
So Boris is bright enough to know exactly the reaction he'd get. nationalist tub-thumping works for both him and Macron right now, and he needs to revive his Brexity, anti-immigrant, anti-EU nationalism as its never failed him before and it won't now
That's exactly my point.
The French reaction was entirely predictable. Both governments in power are far more concerned about their own short term electoral needs rather than the lives of migrants, and are probably happy to feed each others tub thumping nationalist rhetoric for now.
What's French for ****?
migrants people, men women and children don't do the fascists de-humanizing job for them.
France have just cancelled talks on immigration over Johnson’s open letter of demands.
You could argue that the letter wasn't actually to the French at all, it was to the national right-wing press in this country; an ill-concealed, self-congratulatory way of shifting blame away from his own breathtaking incompetence and once again painting the French / the EU as the enemy.
I don't think it would have mattered what France had done, the press here would still have spun it as King Boris telling those pesky forriners what to do.
Ironic that, having left the EU in order to take back control of our borders, we're now asking France to do more to control our borders. Turns out that borders have two sides. Who knew?!
In or out and it’s the pesky EU/France thwarting the plucky U.K.
Still someone’s sat happy looking at his grand a roll wallpaper that someone else paid for,sipping a nice Chablis.
A nice little ‘migrant Chrisis’will happily pull the carpet over the big pile of other issues till the next one.
It’s nice at the top table always something you can use to blame someone else for the problems.
Like a form of surfing, you don’t actually have to do anything just ride the waves(of Chrisis).
More cake Carrie.
Agree migrant deaths are exactly the sort of divisive nationalism Johnson needs right now
https://twitter.com/PedderSophie/status/1464139057915650061?t=XxKGs865kv_QRDO3bh13EQ&s=19
And you just know that the flag-waving morons who voted for him to ‘Get Brexit Done’ will be lapping this up
I *ing despise what this country has become, and the fact that a * like Johnson has ridden the toxic wave he helped create to such a calamitous degree
Even by his gutter-level standards, exploiting the deaths of people like that is appallingly cynical. He really is a piece of work
Sunak is publicly complaining about the chaos next door. I take that as a bid of sorts. I think Gove's image these days is a bit too flakey. Truss is not bright enough to fend off penetrating questions. Johnson seems to be falling apart, Cash'n'Carrie checking the front of his trousers, porkie pies, porcine speeches to the CBI, going on the nod, U-turns. Even with their majority, a good few will be anticipating a car crash with Captain Corpulence at the wheel.
Great create an international arguement with a nationalistic country about to have an election from whom we imported 43 terawatt hours of electricity last year. What could possibly go wrong?
Does this guy ever think further ahead than the next morning’s headlines?
What could possibly go wrong?
Not all politicians seek to avoid crises... some love the attention and support it gets them. If you can't govern in a way that impresses the voters, you can always be a catalyst for conflicts where you get to "stand up for British [ or French ] interests". You don't even have to be successful in any meaningful way when it comes to defending or supporting those interests, just be very vocal about who's "side" you're on.
Does this guy ever think further ahead than the next morning’s headlines?
It was always inevitable once the idiots decided to give the top job to a third rate tabloid hack
I think that UK foreign policy can be summarised thus…
Speaking of foreign policy, has anyone heard from Liz?
On the other side of the Channel the debate is around the Touquet agreement. Priti Patel isn't paying as agreed so why should France maintain the border in Calais? Can/should France pull out of the agreement, pull down all the fencing around Calais and return the border to the UK ports. It must be very tempting, it's what Boris would do.
What interests me is that very few people have made any reference to the Le Touquet agreement that has the UK border effectively at the Chunnel and Channel ports. If Boris and Pritti really wind up the French all they would have to do is suspend this agreement and then the Merde really would hit the fan regarding keeping the border secure. But since the French seem rather more civilised in terms of keeping promises hopefully this won’t arise
Edit: Doh, beaten to it by a couple of minutes
Kelvin I completely agree however if you are going to do that it might be sensible to work out who holds all the trump cards first (electricity, being the primary route for a lot of our food supplies etc) before you wind up an equally bellicose and self aggrandising politician who is fighting an election campaign and is only likely to win electorally by deciding to make a point.
Boris seems to be basing the great new age of Britain on the Tudor playbook. What will be his next move? Sending the navy out to hijack American or Chinese treasure galleons?
be sensible to work out who holds all the trump cards first
Why? If the French can damage us... that's a win for a politician who wants to campaign by "standing up for Britain"... it is never about making lives better here for Johnson... it about winning votes off the back of making noise sticking it to "them"... he doesn't have to get the upper hand over other countries, he just needs to vocally fight our corner. Retreat can be easily painted as a success don't forget, once you have patriotic fever on your side.
If the French can damage us… that’s a win for a politician who wants to campaign by “standing up for Britain”… it is never about making lives better here for Johnson… it about winning votes off the back of making noise sticking it to “them”
I don't know so much, if his standing up backfires and causes economic pain on voters, they won't thank Boris for that. He may be pushing that rhetoric, but I reckon he'd pull back from significant action.
Yep, I suspect we'll see more flag poles and Union flags* going up in gardens soon.
*Made in China.
Can/should France pull out of the agreement, pull down all the fencing around Calais and return the border to the UK ports. It must be very tempting, it’s what Boris would do.
If the migrants were going the other way and it was France asking us to stop them making the trip* then do you think Johnson and Patel would do anything about it? No, of course they wouldn't. They'd be more likely to commission a launching strip for the boats and ensure someone eaves them off! They're playing a very dangerous political game on this and the repercussions will roll on for decades.
* I fear this will be the situation soon once they've completely destroyed the country.
if his standing up backfires and causes economic pain on voters, they won’t thank Boris for that
You'd think so. But economic damage can be excused if you can find some seemingly simple but fundamentally flawed reasoning to explain what it's in our national interest.
Speaking of foreign policy, has anyone heard from Liz?
She's off opening new pork markets or sorting out the apple crisis.
If you can’t govern in a way that impresses the voters, you can always be a catalyst for conflicts where you get to “stand up for British [ or French ] interests”.
(1) invent / manufacture a problem
(2) look like you are solving it / supporting people who are solving it
(3) repeat
as a country, we have munchausen-by-prime-minister syndrome
Negative economic impact doesn't guarantee a change. There are plenty of adults around here who have nothing but a car and a phone who continue to vote Tory, DM ideology has amazing resonance. I've spent 9 years arguing the case but you end up being typecast as a bit of a misguided loon. Happily I shall be installed next week in a long-term Labour authority where the barman in the best local bar describes himself as a Marxist and the biking is superb.
Negative economic impact doesn’t guarantee a change.
Nor does this :
https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2021/nov/16/uk-unemployment-drops-furlough-scheme-covid
I think we are currently seeing unemployment levels which haven't been seen since the 1970s, and with it 1970s style issues such as inflation.
The new variant... it will change the narrative for Boris BUT he'll also be making some important decisions that will be unpopular either way.
Anyone suspecting he'll be hitting the bottle hard this weekend?
Anyone suspecting he’ll be hitting the bottle hard this weekend?
he hits it hard every day regardless, it's free.
I often wonder if Gove really did “put the knife in” when Johnson was going up against the others to replace Cameron. Or if he knew he didn’t have the support to win at that point, so wanted to pull out of the race to avoid losing, and to do so without looking frit. Johnson and Gove have been very supportive of each other since.
Undoubtedly that’s what was going on. Did you see Boris’s face the morning of the result? The plan had backfired spectacularly. The PM job then was a poisoned chalice, and he knew that. Pity May didn’t but hey ho.
BUT he’ll also be making some important decisions that will be unpopular either way.
Nope - he will be avoiding making decisions as usual and then telling both sides of the debate what they want to hear.
Always found it weird that government policy and announcements are made on Twitter - a yankee social media platform. Often before they are made in parliament....
it's like a massive crisis in confidence by our government. Like.. they need to see how many likes their policy got? Like an attention grabbing selfie?
Always found it weird that government policy and announcements are made on Twitter – a yankee social media platform. Often before they are made in parliament….
The Speaker is trying to crack down on this.
You’d think so. But economic damage can be excused if you can find some seemingly simple but fundamentally flawed reasoning to explain what it’s in our national interest.
Yep,got rid of freedom of movement and looks like the right to protest is going next with the extra tweaks to the ‘policing bill’,not forgetting the annoying things that need redress in the human rights act.
You’ll be better off without these things so the borders can be protected 🙂
Some really horrific things are happening in the shadows whilst you giggle at Boris de Peppa.
Always found it weird that government policy and announcements are made on Twitter – a yankee social media platform. Often before they are made in parliament
As Trump showed, if everything you do is based around lies and misinformation then it’s best to do that in the least regulated space available
And probably most direct/real time feed.
(1) invent / manufacture a problem
Like closing all routes to asylum from outside the UK, and upping the security on other routes into the UK, leaving dangerous sea crossings as the only route for asylum seekers…
https://twitter.com/natalieben/status/1464262672699043850?s=21
Good, thought - provoking post, thanks kelvin.
Well done that man.