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they’ll have time to regroup and campaign effectively for the next GE
Which they’ll certainly lose without Johnson. They only just managed to beat Corbyn so they’ve no chance against Starmer without the red wall Johnson cult supporting them.
Winning means he could in theory stay on but Theresa May was forced into outlining her exit plan and standing down even though she won. Mind you, there was a lot of plotting from the Brexity Morons to get her to go.
I think May had to promise she'd resign in order to survive the vote, Boris wont do that.
TBH, if the end goal is to see Labour (or anyone else) win the next election, Boris surviving tonight isn't a bad outcome. Polls are showing they're going to lose the next election in a landslide and I can't see him doing anything in the next 2 years to turn that around.
Losing a VO(N)C means the PM is expected to resign.
For the tories they lose leadership of the party and so will stop being PM once the new leader is elected.
Although I am curious whether it does have properly written rules or it just relies on them doing the right thing in which case Johnson is guaranteed not to do so.
Polls are showing they’re going to lose the next election in a landslide and I can’t see him doing anything in the next 2 years to turn that around.
My preferred option would be Labour doing well but needing SNP votes for a majority.....with a referendum as the price. I can't see that happening (it would be like turkeys voting for Christmas - needing the Scottish vote which you would then immediately lose for good if the referendum went the SNP's way) but one can dream.
Two things jump out to me in that letter from Johnson...
- Rwanda
- Cuts, cuts, cuts
Does that mean Dido Harding has been given the nod by Jeremy Hunt? Penrose and Hunt both making their moves this morning might be a coincidence... but I doubt it.
https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1533748202318581765?s=20&t=JbkbyFBfe-yoz_l34dckYQ
https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1533748389891940352?s=20&t=JbkbyFBfe-yoz_l34dckYQ
bookies odds are mostly based upon prevailing voting
No, Bookies odds are based on the amount of money bet, how it's split across the 'field' and their margin.
If they have any sense the Tories will opt for either backing him strongly or knifing him cleanly. The worst outcome for them is one where he lingers on like a dirty smell. I think over 250 votes he’s probs ok. Under 200 and I think it’s game over.
FFS I’d forgotten about Hunt. He probably won’t want to be PM now but he’ll be pushed into it. Won’t help the tories at the next election, but it’ll happen.
John Penrose is Dido Harding’s husband
Won’t help the tories at the next election, but it’ll happen.
Yup, I reckon Hunt will come through to be leader. And will probably lose the next election. I’d welcome the change of PM for the country, and the increased chance of a Labour PM come the next election. Better than a few years of someone like Truss or Raab leading the country. Cabinet members will fight each other, without a clear candidate coming though, leaving the way for Hunt to beat them all. That's my prediction. All that is probably going to happen over July/August... not this week though, as Johnson will hold on a bit longer, and "win" the vote this evening. Hope I'm wrong there.
This nonsense about the vote drawing a line under things is pure fantasy
theres the covid inquiry to come
theres the Investigation into whether he broke the ministerial code
theres 2 by-elections
theres inevitibly going to be more pictures/leaks
theres always another Johnson scandal round the corner
That doesnt mean he wont win, its just pretty epic how dim his MPs must buy this (or even pretend to buy it)
Assuming Hunt does take over what chance he'll call a snap election? With Starmer having his curry party hanging over him it would be the perfect time. He can sell it properly as a clean slate, letting the people decide and moving on from the chaos of Johnson.
He probably wouldn't be leader till the Autumn, which could lead to a May '23 election. No chance for the Labour party to choose another leader then and get their own new leader bounce. That's the end of my crystal ball reading... let's see what happens this evening.
He wouldn’t be leader till the Autumn
Tory leadership elections happen very quickly don't they? I seem to remember both May and Johnson took over very quickly after a leadership election was announced.
The Jesse Norman letter is worth reading!
Tory leadership elections happen very quickly don’t they?
Sorry, that's assuming Johnson wins this evening, and the battle for the new leader is pushed later into the summer, with a conference and votes after the summer... more like Cameron's leadership bid than the one Johnson was part of.
EDIT: I'm shutting up now... on the off chance Johnson loses tonight... things do seem to be sliding away from him quite quickly today... that Jesse Norman letter is very good.. it had me actually cheering several times. Everyone read it.
Assuming Hunt does take over what chance he’ll call a snap election?
Any PM with a 75 seat majority and over 2 years of the term left that calls a snap election is crackers
It wont happen
Tory leadership contests are a variable feast - if there are more than two candidates then there are several rounds of whittling down to be done before the final two are put to the membership.
Again though, who’d want to inherit this shitshow? Better for the Tories for Johnson to lead into the next election and lose it…
@kimbers He’s enough of a narcissist to take the rest of them down with him.
It wont happen
Ok maybe not an immediate election but assuming Johnson loses tonight and Hunt takes over (perhaps unchallenged?) I reckon the chances of an autumn election are pretty high. Lessons have been learned since Brown chickened out of it. Hunt will want to strike while he's enjoying his honeymoon.
Better for the Tories for Johnson to lead into the next election and lose it…
Tories don't want to lose anything. There are probably MORE opportunities to syphon off state funds to mates, and dissolve valuable state functions, when times are tough.
https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763409627566080
Quite the hot take from Nadine going after Jeremy Hunt - admitting the Govt didn't prepare for the pandemic.
So what is Trusses photo op going to be today? She must have a pic ready to be released. Next to some guns and bombs while looking stern is my bet
Pissing myself at mad nad 🤣
Wowsers, think she's on the lash already, being ambushed by pink elephants and narcissistic pygmies no doubt.
Ok maybe not an immediate election but assuming Johnson loses tonight and Hunt takes over (perhaps unchallenged?) I reckon the chances of an autumn election are pretty high.
Raab is Deputy PM (God help us all...)
If BJ loses the VONC by a significant margin, he may have no choice but to stand down and have Raab step in, until such time as the leadership challenge has been sorted. That would be the natural order of things. But this Government doesn't do natural orders so who knows. 🤷♂️
Anyone care for a small thread bragging rights bet on the number of mps voting against him? I'm going for a modest 123.
I wonder how Teresa May’s day is going?
Ladbrokes are offering
0-49 - 66/1
50-99 - 3/1
100-149 - 15/8
150-199 - 2/1
200-249 - 5/1
250-299 - 16/1
300+ - 100/1
With the way things are looking at the moment and assuming it's a public vote (ie who voted for what is publicised) it's going to be only the looniest of the loons that vote for him. My money would be tempted for the 66/1 option.
its a secret ballot
it’s going to be only the looniest of the loons that vote for him
There are a lot of people with government roles. I'd assume nearly all will vote for him. I think that in theory they need to resign to vote against him.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/payroll-vote
How many MPs are in the payroll vote?
The current payroll vote is between 160 and 170 MPs, consisting of:
95 ministers (including whips) in the House of Commons
47 parliamentary private secretaries (assuming all those who also serve on the Privileges Committee have resigned their PPS role to be able to investigate the prime minister)
20 Conservative MP trade envoys
an unknown number of party vice-chairs.
I wouldnt bet on it in a secret ballot!!! Getting offered jobs by potential next PMs might well convince the greasy pole climbers away from him.
tjagain
its a secret ballot
Dammit! Would have been spectacular if public.
I wouldnt bet on it in a secret ballot!!!
It's not really secret. The main people in the 1922 committee will know how people voted, and can lean on people voting against the government from positions within it. It's only really secret from us. And it's against the Ministerial Code to vote against the government and/or the PM.
That Jesse Norman letter is spot on!
Mad Nad getting the first punch in early. Hunt had the sense to keep out of the car crash that was always going to be a Johnson government, I doubt he'd be rushing to take the wheel when the bus is heading for the cliff in 2024. He might feel he can pull off a dramatic recovery, if he has any sense he might wait to be the leader after that election loss.
I wonder how Teresa May’s day is going?
Insert Theresa May dancing gif here...
And it’s against the Ministerial Code to vote against the government and/or the PM.
The old code, or the new loosey goosey one?
And it’s against the Ministerial Code to vote against the government and/or the PM.
I'm sure they'll be fine with an apology for such a minor transgression...
The main people in the 1922 committee will know how people voted
Do they?
They know who puts a letter in (although its supposedly only Brady who does) but I thought its a normal stick ballot paper in a box tonight so anonymous (assuming they dont bother numbering them like normal elections but cant see them bothering or the MPs accepting it).
And it’s against the Ministerial Code to vote against the government and/or the PM.
Thats in parliament I wonder if its in internal votes as well. Leaving aside they could just follow his example.
Saw a suggestion the reminder photographing ballot papers is banned is a deliberate attempt to stop pressure being applied by either side.
All good points Dissonance... you're probably correct on all counts.
Pissing myself at mad nad
Whilst amusing she does have a point.
His continual announcements about how bad it was handled does handily skip over his own contributions to ensuring those failures.
Admittedly I think they would have screwed up anyway but he certainly made sure they were well handicapped.
She does have a point...
Boris Johnson scrapped a team of senior ministers charged with preparing the country for a pandemic six months before the outbreak of coronavirus in the UK, according to a report.
According to the Daily Mail, the group - called the Threats, Hazards, Resilience and Contingency Committee (THRCC) - was suspended by former prime minister Theresa May on the advice of Cabinet Secretary Sir Mark Sedwill so that civil servants and ministers could focus on Brexit.
The Government committee, which included Cabinet ministers such as Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, Michael Gove and Gavin Williamson, was abolished by Mr Johnson a few days after he entered Downing Street. The committee was axed without discussing virus control plans.
On Friday night, a former Cabinet minister - who was a member of THRCC - told the Mail that it could have helped to Government to respond more quickly to the virus.
Boris Johnson Broke Britain.
I reckon a lot of Tories looking at Dorries tweets and thinking its better to lance this boil now
she really could have swung it for the rebels
Those Dorries tweets are a perfect example of conveying the reverse of what she intended - while her boss was skipping COBRA meetings and celebrating Brexit Day, Jeremy Hunt was at least calling on her, a health minister, to take action to protect the British population, even if, in hindsight, his approach wouldn't have worked long term.
Absolute dimwit.
He will be promising everything to everyone. If they're naive enough to be prepared to take him at this word this late in the day, then they really shouldn't be in parliament making judgements on our behalf.
When they all realise they've all been 'promised' the same role in the cabinet then that'll help the house of cards collapse.
Personally, Boris winning VONC by one vote would be perfect.
When they all realise they’ve all been ‘promised’ the same role in the cabinet then that’ll help the house of cards collapse.
That'll be like rats in a sack fighting over the scraps.
He promised that job to me!
No me!
I was there first!
Collective realisation: What, Boris [b]lied[/b] to us?!
Losing by one vote would be great, too. We can all grab popcorn as the party tears itself to shreds during a leadership election.
I wouldnt bet on it in a secret ballot!!!
[Pedantry corner] a ballot is a secret vote, a secret ballot is a secret secret vote [/pedantry corner]
TBF the BBC are really bad for this, the worst was a Norn' Irish reporter who once talked about a secret ballot vote...A secret secret vote vote.🤣
Mad Nad has clearly pushed through after a night on the sauce and is playing a blinder 😂
https://twitter.com/supertanskiii/status/1533787208246771712?s=21&t=Uc86k71l4Rfr8gkArCXErA
Sounds like an episode of the Thick Of It, as do so many things with this government, where about 20 people have already been promised they’ll be foreign Secretary within a week
Go Nads!
Losing by one vote would be great, too. We can all grab popcorn as the party tears itself to shreds during a leadership election.
A score of 186-172 (assuming I’ve got the number of Tory MPs right) would be poignant.
Personally, Boris winning VONC by one vote would be perfect.
Perfect would be a 52-48% split either way.
Also, if someone promised me a job if I voted in a secret, secret, allot, ballot and I wanted to vote against them I would.
If they survived I would smile, lie about my vote and take the job.
Boris Johnson Broke Britain.
True. He lobbed some phosphorus and a couple of nukes onto the fire which Hunt had already started.
Nadhim Zahawi was interviewed earlier telling us that the British people don't want a Tory civil war.
Au contraire my good man, I love watching the self-serving duplicitious c**ts getting stuck into each other.
They themselves all ADORE a leadership contest, it's like a holiday from work and lets them re-live the glory years from boarding school.
A secret secret vote vote
The level of secrecy doesnt vary though. Many (eg national elections) arent truly secret since a number which can be linked back to you is on the paper if someone can be bothered (there are claims this was done at some stages with regards to people voting for communist party).
Whereas in this case I think it will actually be secret.
Quite nice to have a vote where the outcome either way torpedoes the Tories. 🙂
That Norman letter is good - shame it took him 15 years to realise the truth...
That Norman letter is good – shame it took him 15 years to realise the
truthblindingly obvious…
Whereas in this case I think it will actually be secret.
MPs can vote and add two proxy's for those who can't attend. It isn't really secret. It's not public, but the party will have access, I am sure.
Whereas in this case I think it will actually be secret.
This is the Tories, I think they'll be desperate to tell each other how they voted - once they know which why the wind's blowing, of course. @2tyred nails it really.
28%!!! I know I should be more empathetic in these enlightened times and be able to put myself in the shoes of others and their situation but WTAF are these people thinking!!??
So funny if he gets less than 100 votes
Then we'll know some of his supporters were lying
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1533798952197410818?t=Dw22zN--4bRHzp-0tqnSMA&s=19
59% think they should vote to remove him
They rather missed the most important stat for their headline - only 34% of tory voters want him gone today and the majority want him to stay according to that poll. What I or any other voter who would rather be dry bummed than vote for any tory leader ever think is largely irrelevant.
I wonder how many of the 9% of labour voters who want him to stay are thinking the long game and are just wanting the self destruction show to continue.
Is that 34% of those that still say they'd vote Conservative, or 34% of those who voted Conservative in 2019?
It would be a massive mistake for any Labour voters to think they (Labour)will profit from Johnson remaining in office. This guy will stop at nothing to remain in power so expect more prorogations of parliament, boundary changes etc.
Wait, @kimbers aren't there 54 "no confidence" already? Given that's how many it needs to trigger this dog and pony show after all
Blimey...
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1533774364935696385?s=20&t=Z284Yw8Nlw_Q9jz7dpJlTw
These are publicly confirmed votes
Sunday Times was saying it was 67 letters went in!
This was less of a zinger than I'd hoped for.
https://twitter.com/MarcusJBall/status/1533804069994766336?s=20&t=R53tVYxK4tSZY4VGzirkLw