And because I don’t follow US politics closely I don’t understand why Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez doesn’t appear to be in the frame herself, I would have thought that she would make a formidable adversary to Trump
Pure conjecture on my part, but it just seems like party infighting, to me. A bit like the conservatives in the UK, they are far more pre-occupied with shoulder-barging each other out of the way, than they are with, I dunno, doing government stuff, which is what they get paid very well to do?
A O-C a relative newcomer, so whilst very good and popular in the press, simply doesnt have the wide base and appeal of others.
Looking forward to the first debate between Trump and Harris. If it happens she will wipe the floor with him. That will have an effect on opinion.
Biden has made a massive put country before pride decision to step down.
I didn't think that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was that much of a newcomer so I checked and I was shocked to realise that she has only been in office for 5 years, she has certainly made a lot of noise in that time!
She is also according to YouGov the 7th most popular Democrat and the 8th most popular US politician.
Just travelling around Vermont and there are lots of nice houses but there are more run down shacks with Trump 2024 on than I can shake a stick at.
It's an interesting contrast.
Looking forward to the first debate between Trump and Harris. If it happens she will wipe the floor with him. That will have an effect on opinion.
I think this is where having a younger candidate will count. Trump will lie and BS his way though the debate and his base vote will love it but it wont increase that base vote.
Harris, if she performs well against Trump, will hopefully unite the anti Trump vote and actually increase the base.
If the Dems show her to be a viable Presidential material, and the debates are a great place to do that, they are still in with a chance.
Or you have Musk, definitely pretty clever but also completely mercenary, so I’m not sure how to class him…
A berk.
I think it's just about giving the people in the center-third a democrat who they feel they can vote for, against Trump. It looked like Biden until he started dropping the ball a few weeks ago.
Biden was perfect for this the first time around because he was just an old white man, with loads of experience, about whom nobody really had any strong opinions - and that allowed people to vote against trump. If they had stood-up Bernie Sanders or AOC, you would have seen the "Corbyn effect", with people in the center third scared-away.
Gavin Newsom is too easy a target because of the nations perception of what's going on in California, Buttigieg would be excellent (I think) but for obvious reasons I think is a non-starter. Harris is interesting, because (as far as I can tell) she hasn't really said or done anything of any great significance..... but yet people seem to have strong feelings about her (I wonder why that is).
Personally, I think they should stand-up that Astronaut chap NickC mentioned in the pervious page - it's only really his firearms activism thats going to cause a problem in some states - but viewed as massively positive in others. Mostly though - he's a moderate republican's wet-dream.
A berk.
A bloody rich berk. He’s putting more money into Trump’s campaign than all the donations to all the parties in the UK for their ‘24 campaigns… combined.
A brief reminder that Musk 'Came out' as a Republican just before a story broke about him sexually assaulting an employee.
He knew that the accusations would lose him many of his progressive fans so he decided to get some new ones ideally ones who have long shown they don't care much what women have to say.
Same approach as recent RNC attendee Russel Brand but sadly with a lot more cash.
He just wants people to kiss his arse basically.
Just travelling around Vermont and there are lots of nice houses but there are more run down shacks with Trump 2024 on than I can shake a stick at.
I think that is because Trump actually voices how bad their lives are while the democrats don't. Of course there is nothing that Trump will do to help them, and they will get a few more crumbs in a democratic term, but the fact that Trump recognises their existence with rhetoric while they are ignored by the dems is enough to give the (false) hope.
It is basically the same psychology that brought us brexit, ukip/reform and Borris as PM (so it isn't just Americans) it is whole communities being ignored by neoliberal centrists allowing breeding grounds for lies, false hope and political radicalisation.
Also: Given that the supreme court essentially just said presidents are immune, Biden's not going to be reelected (and let's face it, is probs going to kick the bucket sooner rather than later) I wonder what sort of shit that can pull between now and January.
It is basically the same psychology that brought us brexit
Pointing out the problems isn’t the difference, that’s common to most political movements and actors, it’s the blame angle… blame the woke, blame the immigrant, blame the climate “nut”… and offer simplistic solutions… ban roll back legal changes to stop people from living their lives, build a wall, drill, drill, drill.
Trump’s supporters don’t believe what he’s saying is true, they just have no interest in truth if they are offered something more entertaining instead.
I think that we have to consider how many are Trump supporters who will vote for him come what may and how many are Republicans who want to: retain rights to abortion, keep FDA approval of chemical abortion drugs, retain the balance of power rather than increasing the president’s authority over every part of the federal government, refuse to place the FBI under a politically accountable leader, maintain taxes on corporations and the wealthy (I wonder who that'll benefit), etc, etc. https://joebiden.com/project2025/
Looking forward to the first debate between Trump and Harris. If it happens she will wipe the floor with him. That will have an effect on opinion.
The second ABC TV debate isn't until September, she might not be nominee
AOC isn't really the correct choice this time around, they already have the left leaning Democrats in the bag but the only chance they have of beating Trump is the middle and she's likely too divisive to win enough of them around. Of course it defies any logic that someone advocating for social programs and providing support to people that need it (rather than tax breaks for millionaires and corporations) is considered a radical lefty who will somehow hurt the average American but that's where US politics is these days.
Assuming free and fair elections survive another Trump presidency I hope she runs next time and that the Democrats at least control one of the Congressional bodies during Trump's term.
Woke up this morning feeling a lot more positive than about the world than I have in morning. No tories in the UK, the far right failed to do what they threatened to do in France and there is just a sliver of a chance that Trump is not going to get back into the White House.
As a democrat or sane, educated American I would be frustrated this morning. Biden should have done what he did literally years ago - arguably before the last election. Harris is either going to get the domination and look effectively anointed by the grandees - a bad look. Or it's going to be rats in a sack less than a hundred days before the election. And that is Biden's fault.
“It’s not right, it’s just how it is with the american electorate, they are not the brightest people”
“ Nice bit of casual racism there “
For gods sakes, there is no racism there, he/she was pointing out that there are some right thick idiots in the USA.
Can we stop this stupid obsession in trying to find racism in the most innocent of posts? Its pathetic.
Remember around 20 years ago, the guardian reported “XXXX, a Black Cab Driver was sentenced..” brought about a complaint from a person saying it was racist by saying the persons skin colour. The Guardian countered that the word black described the colour of the cab.
Lighten up (is that racist in your world? no, it’s lighten your mood), stop seeing rascism where there isnt any.
Harris got about $50m in campaign donations yesterday after Biden announced his withdrawal. In context, the Biden-Harris fund, that I believe she will now control was about $95m, and the surge is in Democrats that would not donate while Biden was the option.
IDK how much is large backers where a donation is an investment in future access to the WH or whatever, and so was being withheld because - well, why spend money on something you won't get. But one report said about 50/50, with half coming in donations from the public. Is that an indication of a newly motivated soft democrat vote? Again IDK how often the US runs opinion polls, but be interested to see movement in them now.
there are some right thick idiots in the USA.
That is not what was claimed, there was no mention of some right thick idiots. The suggestion was that the American electorate are not bright.
Would you accept "the Irish electorate are not very bright" or "the ****stani electorate are not very bright"?
I strongly dislike political correctness/wokeness but I also intensely dislike bigotry. There is a long established attitude of bigotry towards Americans on STW which some people seem to believe is acceptable. I consider it to be hypocritical.
I don't know if there there are any regular contributors posting from the United States on STW there certainly used to be several and I valued their contributions, but there doesn't seem to be any these days, at least I am not aware of any who openly advertise the fact. Considering that STW is a fairly hostile and unsympathetic environment for our American friends it is hardly surprising.
AOC isn’t really the correct choice this time around, they already have the left leaning Democrats in the bag but the only chance they have of beating Trump is the middle
Well she clearly lacks experience if she has only been in office for five years (although Trump had never held an elected position when he became POTUS)
But there have been plenty of opinion polls in the past that Bernie Sanders was the best placed and strongest Democrat to defeat Trump, and it obviously wasn't because he was seen as older and wiser!
I am not aware of any evidence that being a radical is a serious disadvantage in US politics currently, in fact I believe that the appeal of a radical, especially one alledgedly rejected by the establishment, goes to the very heart of Trump's appeal.
Oh and I firmly believe that the election will be won not by turning marginal Trump voters. They are a lost cause - it's like an episode of the Walking Dead - The zombies just have to be worked around rather than recruited. No, sanity will prevail if a younger, sharper candidate can get every sane thinking person of voting age motivated enough (and with the right bits of paper) to go out and vote in the states that matter.
I suppose the usual problem with facing Trump will be how do you approach it - do you allow him to land blows on you with lies and silly nicknames or try to counter with the same. Or do you be the bigger person, act like an actual believable states person and hope enough of the electorate of all levels of age, intelligence, education and class appreciate that. I do wonder if Biden was too nice - maybe you need to spell out exactly what Trump is in more passionate terms. Not go toe to toe with the silly names but go full on with the truth about what he is in easy to follow language just about civil enough to be broadcastable. Basically call a **** a ****. Not to attempt to undermine him in the eyes of his supporters but to make sure the more passive part of the electorate who may or may not bother to vote do the right thing.
Again IDK how often the US runs opinion polls, but be interested to see movement in them now.
Polling methodologies change as the election gets closer. Pollsters will now be tending to quiz registered voters who are likely to vote, but that relies on a personal declaration which isn't borne out by the official numbers
Voters can register a couple weeks before the election in some states and a month before in others, but some states will begin an early vote in either September or October
If nothing else the drama might get a few more people out to the voting booths
If they had stood-up Bernie Sanders or AOC, you would have seen the “Corbyn effect”, with people in the center third scared-away.
Sanders is a popular personality - but he's not really a democrat. He aligns himself with the democrats because there isn't another suitable party, but it's just a flag of convenience. He's not a unifying figure for the Democrats - he's also older than Biden.
I am very tired of living in interesting times.
Exhausting, isn't it?
But spare a thought for all those US truck owners who have to replace all their anti-Biden bumper stickers this morning.
Trump is raging because his whole campaign is aligned towards beating an old man, and nobody seems to have prepared for the possibility of a younger opponent.
Harris will really have to up her game to beat Trump. She’s not the best candidate for the Democrats, but they can’t pass over the current VP who’s also black and female to go for one of the Governors or cabinet members who’re probably stronger when facing Trump. They’re backed into a corner. Still!
I suppose the usual problem with facing Trump will be how do you approach it – do you allow him to land blows on you with lies and silly nicknames or try to counter with the same.
I was pondering this exact question this morning over a brew. The problem for me is that all the name calling just makes you look an utter dick.
And it's the old ad hominem/lost the argument situation.
For me it's a massive turn off. I want to hear potential solutions and a vision for the future. I can't be unusual in that
I don't believe there's an untapped pool of potential trump voters out there, he's got to be pretty much at peak, I mean are we really saying there's undecideds still? After the last 8 years of his shitposting?
Like convert I think it's about rallying the anti trump vote, that's where the numbers are. Trump has in a swoop lost his main attack, that biden is too old and feeble. He basically has to start again
Reports in German media that Biden's team blames Obama as some kind of puppet master in removing him.
The question on everyones lips is 'what would an overly-verbose rapey grifter think, when trying to re-invent himself as some type of American political commentator'?
What a ****!
https://Twitter.com/stuzi_pants/status/1815295084293722237
“The general public” are **** ing dense, regardless of race or nationality.
Unfortunately, populists like trump and Farrage have learned how to weaponise our collective stupidity for their own ends.
Is Russell Brand deliberately filming himself waffling nonsense in a park supposed to be some sort of self-deprecating joke?
“there are some right thick idiots in the USA."
“ That is not what was claimed, there was no mention of some right thick idiots. The suggestion was that the American electorate are not bright.”
Either way, there is no racism in that at all, so why even say its ‘casual racism?'. And it is quite clear that the meaning was that just some of them are not bright, as we all clearly know there are some very clever people in the USA.
“The general public” are **** ing dense, regardless of race or nationality.
Unfortunately, populists like trump and Farrage have learned how to weaponise our collective stupidity for their own ends.
Sadly this is mostly where I'm at too. It's democracy's achilles heel. Something has happened though - society has given up trying. It's almost proud to be shit. It's the whole "the people of this country have had enough of experts" personified. There is no shame in being unable to follow an argument. A lot of society expects very little of it's self anymore. If it's a bit too hard to do or a bit to hard to follow why not just give the **** up?:The Homer Simpson philosophy on living a good life. They eat fast food and vote populist. Trump/Farage are the MSG of politics and too many people don't just guzzle it up but proudly display a bumper sticker proclaiming they do.
Is Russell Brand deliberately filming himself waffling nonsense in a park supposed to be some sort of self-deprecating joke?
Ernesto - since being exposed as a rapey gifter in this country, Brand has followed the time-honoured route of claiming to have been 'saved' by discovering god, and now spends his time as a Trump cheerleader and peddling 'deep state' conspiracy theories to tinfoil-helmeted Americans via YouTube.
I'm sure its very lucrative for him
Reports in German media that Biden’s team blames Obama as some kind of puppet master in removing him.
Obama was reported to have leaked that he had been telling Biden to pull out, having been ignored when he'd said it privately.
Harris will really have to up her game to beat Trump.
I wonder if it's more about damage limitation at this point, or at least trying something when its obvious that you're going to lose badly.
Seems that Harris is being written off by a lot already, but she polls better than Biden & beats Trump in a few weve had so far, Trump was only leading Biden by 4% on average, be interesting to see what the polls over the next week look like.
Im pretty sure most republicans would very much like Biden to have kept running, now all those age related attacks swing back on Trump.
Biden shouldve stepped down a while ago, but theres just about enough time to get Harris in position, when are the next debates supposed to be?
Interesting times ahead
I wouldn't write her off, and one of her advantages is just how obviously race-baity and misogynistic the Republican campaign will be. They have nothing else.
There is no hope for the Republican base voters, they will lap it up, but my only hope is that swing voters will come to their senses and recoil when presented with such a campaign of such inescapable ugliness and bigotry.
I guess we will find out just how how lost America is at this point.
Actually thinking about it I expect that the Republicans will keep focusing on Biden- his age making him unsuitable to be sitting presdient and his late decision to drop out as well as Harris being involved in any cover-up of his age related issues, although double edged sword really because Trump is also old & mad!
And her VP pick will be interesting
but my only hope is that swing voters will come to their senses and recoil when presented with such a campaign of such inescapable ugliness and bigotry.
I once though something along those lines many years ago
I don't share your optimism
Jesus, is he still relevant? Maybe we should ask Zack De la Rocha for his thoughts too.
I once though something along those lines many years ago
He really is an unbelievably abhorrent ****.
a campaign of such inescapable ugliness and bigotry.
I'm expecting inescapable bigliness to be honest
On the far right chat-boards it looks like the old birther conspiracy has been resurrected.
