[Closed] are we heading for another shit storm?

Where's cressers when you need him?

You called? We didn't emerge from the last slump. I'm expecting a triple dip recession is on the way.

are we heading for another shit storm?

Until the Chancellor concentrates on encouraging the supply side of the economy... yes.

[quote=alpin ] big companies are scaling back (the last large conference i worked on was about 3/5th the size of the previous year's due to a massive fall in attendance; several large German banks and other firms are scaling back their Christmas bash plans) or simply not putting on a show at all.
Some would argue that's a return to normality from the excesses of the past.

Its not a case of the next shit-storm? Its a case of a permanent shit-storm from now on. Europe is in terminal decline. Look at the leadership* of the EU and every European state. Utterly and completely clueless. They haven't the slightest inkling what to do, except chuck more money at failed Southern economies, and hope for the best

We're in this mess because we spent vast amounts more than we brought in. Yet this hasn't sunk in, and these idiots seem to think we can get out of it by doing more of the same. Madness!

Meanwhile the emerging economies look on at us, bemused at this car crash, as they power on to even higher growth

At best we can look forward to economic stagnation. But even that I think is wildly optimistic! The very nature of our societies is changing completely. And we best get used to it. ie: spunking billions of pounds on new nuclear subs etc, to boost our fragile national ego, is frankly bloody ludicrous

* the term 'leadership' is used figuratively in this instance

We are having our best year ever.
Oil and Gas is booming.
Even shit offshore surveyors are in demand.

we just posted a net loss (in line with forecast and the rest of the industry) which was nine figures (although the investment arm i work for was up fortunately).

That's globally, but mainly europe, which the picture is the same...pretty grim.

Japan experienced a 'lost decade' of no/very weak growth not so long ago. It's Europe's turn now - and I'm including the UK when I say Europe. I'm worried for my daughters - the eldest has just started University and the younger one is in Year 11. I don't rate their chances of living the yuppie lifestyle when they enter the job market, in fact I'm already resigned to the fact that we'll probably have at least one of them living with us for a while after they've finished Uni.

Until the Chancellor concentrates on encouraging the supply side of the economy... yes.

There's no point boosting supply when demand ain't there.

usually this time of year should be busy, but there are a lot of lads that i know who are sat around scratching their arses

People are changing the way they do business. Do you really need to spend 10's of thousands on a trade fair?

People are not smooshing (taking clients out to lunch as much)- people are cutting to the chase (is what I'm finding).

Slightly OT: If a car manufacturer misses a car show- is it because they are struggling or are their orders so high that they need not bother what was once seen as the norm to hit every car show on the circuit?

There's no point boosting supply when demand ain't there.

There's no point boosting supply when demand ain't there.

... in Europe ...

Meanwhile the emerging economies look on at us, bemused at this car crash, as they power on to even higher growth

IT is all too easy to despair about everything that is wrong with Britain. But one ray of light is our slow-burning, yet increasingly profound shift towards becoming a more entrepreneurial society.

Britain counts 4.8m private firms, 99.9 per cent of which are small to medium-sized businesses (SMEs). Most are micro businesses. The rise of self-employment is a very good thing: it is gradually changing mindsets. The people involved are far more likely to believe and practice personal responsibility; they understand, perhaps more so than some employees in big businesses, that work and reward must be closely linked, that creating economic value is difficult, that one must always seek to please customers and that endless rounds of red tape and taxes are a nightmare.

So the rise of the small firm, of the individual as an autonomous economic agent, trading with the world rather than being employed by it, is a great cultural shift. But when it comes to job-creation and economic growth, there is one category of firm that is even more heroic, and that is the subset of entrepreneurs with the desire, ability and good luck to make it big. Nesta discovered in a seminal study a few years back that there are just 11,500 companies with more than 10 staff which had grown at over 20 per cent per annum over three consecutive years. These gazelles made up 6 per cent of SMEs with more than 10 employees and just 0.2 per cent of private firms but created half the new jobs created by existing companies in 2002-2008. Today, with giants such as UBS and RBS shrinking and laying off staff and a new generation of firms beginning to emerge from the ruins of the recession, gazelles are likely to prove even more important, as an excellent report from PwC, Duncan Cheatle’s Prelude Group and the Supper Club reminds us.

The paper merges anthropological-style research with accounting rigour, and highlights seven such gazelles as case studies of a much larger vanguard of successful high-growth start-ups. None of these seven firms – including lifestyle management firm Ten Group and occupational health consultancy Health Management – existed just a few years ago; today they employ 1,219 people in total. Most were started from home (where 60 per cent of small businesses are created), one from a cow-shed and another with little more than a phone. Founders made big financial sacrifices – one sold everything he had, another borrowed the money from credit cards, increasingly a source of start-up cash.

Everybody involved gains from successful firms, including the taxman. PwC calculates that 44 per cent of the gross value added created over the last five years across the seven gazelles was distributed to employees. The amount retained or distributed to owners was just 15 per cent, while the value distributed to government in taxes borne (such as corporation tax and business rates) and collected (national insurance, income tax, Vat) amounts to 41 per cent of gross valued added. The entrepreneurs featured generated a total tax contribution of £104.2m over the last five years. One of the firms featured hands 30 per cent of its turnover to HMRC; another collects £15,400 per employee in PAYE tax. At a time when debating tax avoidance has become a national obsession, these figures remind us that by creating jobs and value added, entrepreneurial businesses always generate lots of tax receipts, directly and indirectly.

There is only one way the UK will ever get out of its debt crisis and stagnant growth: it needs more successful entrepreneurs. Go for it, dear readers, you know you want to do it.

i think you may find that large companies in recent years are really starting to question the value of exhibitions/trade fairs/conferences. I work in healthcare industry and the last two annual exhibitions/conferences have had dire turn outs. I've manned stands in the past where the company has spent £80,000 to build a stand that is up for two days.

At the end of the two days we've met very few 'new' people and most people who approach the stands are existing customers who are either on a two day piss up away from home paid for by the NHS (and those are very much the minority now, hence the decline in attendees) or they're punters who are pissed off and want to sound of at senior managers who only seem to leave their desks once a year for the two day company piss up with the reps.

I think all in all it costs £90K to host this two day flag waving exercise and whilst it may send signal to our competitors and other manufacturers that we;re doing OK, IMHO it's £90K poorly spent. I'd rather spend £90K taking consultants out for meals and we could reach far more target audience with that money.

The Eurozone may be in recession but businesses have had to evolve in recent times and the ones thriving have recognised it and the ones struggling haven't.

Head first - maybe we could give loads of cheap credit to stimulate the demand? What bad effects could that possible have?

Do you really need to spend 10's of thousands on a trade fair?

no, but it would be nice as it's my bread and butter...

re. the uni thing. would it not be better if more kids were to learn on the job rather than believing that the only way into a job is via a university degree? my cousin finished two years ago and since then has been dossing at her BF's place whilst she goes from one "work experience job" (i.e. free labour) to another.... she finished her english and editorial degree with top marks.

[i]We're in this mess because we spent vast amounts more than we brought in. [/i]

Playing devil's advocate slightly, much/most of that spending was on social welfare stuff, like the NHS, eduaction and the welfare state, that people of your left-leaning persuasion (including the Labour government in power) thought that money should be spent on. You didn't complain about it at the time and indeed even thought more money should be spent. It could be seen as a bit rich to be complaining now that it shouldn't have been spent.

Best case scenario is for sustained period of very low (flat) growth. Double-dip, triple-dip, one quarter of growth is all statistical noise and tells us nothing. Strip away the funnies and we haven't had any of them. Just sustained flat/no growth.

With everyone delevaging at the same time, there can be no fast recovery. Plus with the policy focus only on sorting out deficit countries rather than on surplus countries at the same time, people still haven't learned the lessons of the great depression.

[edit: on that topic this is not a bad article: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9680554/Like-it-or-not-Beijing-and-Berlin-must-pay.html ]

More of the same for a long time I'm afraid. Unless the (inevitable - just for JY 😉 ) collapse of the € happens sooner than expected. Then the shock will be faster and recovery possible earlier but not without considerable interim pain.

re. the uni thing. would it not be better if more kids were to learn on the job rather than believing that the only way into a job is via a university degree? my cousin finished two years ago and since then has been dossing at her BF's place whilst she goes from one "work experience job" (i.e. free labour) to another.... she finished her english and editorial degree with top marks.

Move to London?

It's all pretty irrelevant. Israel will probably kick off World War 3 and we'll all be dead by the middle of next month just like the Mayan's predicted.

geordiemick00 - building trade stands for healthcare industry? So you're the one responsible for the really freaky 12 foot tall asthma inhaler sat downstairs, then???

Rachel

Its not a case of the next shit-storm? Its a case of a permanent shit-storm from now on. Europe is in terminal decline. Look at the leadership* of the EU and every European state. Utterly and completely clueless. They haven't the slightest inkling what to do, except chuck more money at failed Southern economies, and hope for the best

We're in this mess because we spent vast amounts more than we brought in. Yet this hasn't sunk in, and these idiots seem to think we can get out of it by doing more of the same. Madness!

Meanwhile the emerging economies look on at us, bemused at this car crash, as they power on to even higher growth

At best we can look forward to economic stagnation. But even that I think is wildly optimistic! The very nature of our societies is changing completely. And we best get used to it. ie: spunking billions of pounds on new nuclear subs etc, to boost our fragile national ego, is frankly bloody ludicrous

Frank, concise, insightful and just about spot on.

Binners; are you feeling ok?

Anyone who thinks this 'recession' is merely a 'blip' that Europe and especially the UK will recover from is either in denial of has their head in the sand.

WorldClassAccident - Member
Head first - maybe we could give loads of cheap credit to stimulate the demand? What bad effects could that possible have?

What a stupid answer. Yes, that is of course what I was suggesting.

EDIT: 🙄

Israel will probably kick off World War 3

Pop me down for Israel's side.

IHN - The problem is that during the labour years we were told that all these things were being funded by strong economic growth, so that therefore it was affordable.

But it wasn't, was it? It was all smoke and mirrors. There was no actual growth at all. It was all just a bubble of property prices and credit! And an illusionary boom in the city (which benefited how many?)

The rest of the real economy was just bumping along the bottom. Or in the case of manufacturing, slowly declining. And this behavior was magnified all over Europe. The more severe the further south you went. So now we've got to bite the bullet and re-balance our economies if we're ever to get out of this. And be honest - can you see that happening any time soon? The politicians are all sat around with their thumbs up their arses.

The result - terminal decline

EDIT: Mike - I am actually feeling a bit odd 😉

FORGET Grexit, Spexit or any other possible departures from the euro. Despite yesterday’s news that the Eurozone is now back in recession, the markets should focus on another potential exit. The Brixit – a British departure from the European Union.

For the first time in a generation it’s realistic. But would it hurt the UK economy? This question is usually framed in terms of exports and market access. But the relative decline of the EU as a percentage of the global economy makes those two issues less relevant.

In fact, if the UK did pull out of the EU, it would be better off. There would be costs, but sterling would benefit from becoming a quasi reserve currency. And UK businesses would get a one-off competitiveness boost.

For the UK, the European question is changing very rapidly. First, if the euro is to survive, there will need to be full fiscal union. Tax and spending decisions will be made by a treasury minister in Brussels. Members will have to relinquish control over their national economies, and Britain won’t want to be part of that. So the UK may soon have left anyway, in that it is no longer involved in the EU’s most important decisions.

Second, the world has moved on. The global economy is now dominated by rising emerging economies. In contrast, the slow-growth EU doesn’t look like a partner anyone would want to stay married to anymore.

And it’s highly likely Britain will have a referendum on EU membership in the next five years. Labour is committed to one, and the Conservatives won’t want to be trumped by Ed Miliband. When the referendum happens, Britain might vote to leave. By this stage, the core Eurozone may well be stuck in a deep recession. That can only tip the popular mood further towards leaving the EU.

If a British exit becomes possible, the markets will take fright. Sterling will tank. The FTSE would dive. Most mainstream business opinion for 30 years has held that Britain needs to be in the EU. It needs access to that market. Lose it, and trade would collapse. But on a medium-term view, it will boost the UK economy. Here’s why.

True, there would be losers. The City would suffer. It has been the key financial market for the EU, but it is unlikely France and Germany would tolerate this situation if the UK was outside the club. Some global banks could move their operations to Frankfurt or Paris, and the wealth they generate would flow elsewhere. As the mass redundancies at the London office of the Swiss bank UBS demonstrate, however, this is now less of a worry than it would have been a decade ago.

Also, while the UK could negotiate the same kind of free access to EU markets enjoyed by the Swiss, hidden barriers to our exports may be put in place. And while the importance of exports to the EU is often exaggerated – only about 13 per cent of the economy relies on selling to EU markets – some businesses would suffer.

But there would also be two big advantages. First, sterling would emerge as an island of stability. The pound is already emerging as a partial reserve currency – a status it hasn’t held for fifty years. The Swiss National Bank, for example, revealed this month that it had doubled its holdings of sterling, while cutting back on euros. The Russian central bank recently said that 9 per cent of its reserves are held in sterling. Despite the UK’s problems, it is still a stable nation, and is not caught up in the Eurozone mess. If Britain was further detached from the euro crisis, its attractiveness would increase.

Second, Britain could expect a one-off competitiveness boost. While it may have started as a free trade zone, the EU has turned into a spending and regulating machine. Its agricultural policies keep food prices high. Its employment regulations make it hard to fire people – and companies reluctant to hire. Health and safety laws put barriers in the way of innovation. Discard them, and businesses would be freed of a massive burden of red-tape. There are few better ways of stimulating growth than tearing up regulations. Though it would only happen once, it would help the UK grow again – and that would help the equity markets.

There are few reasons to be optimistic about the UK economy. State spending is too high, taxes keep going up, and growth has been flat-lining for four years. But an exit from the EU might be the “growth shock” the UK needs – and could be the one thing to get the economy moving again.

We'll get over it..

Just need to spend more of your savings.

The UK holds 1/3* of the worlds savings assets..

We're saving more for that "rainy day" when realyy if you eased up you'd ease the economy..

Fear and threats have hampered this country, Govt's constant fear and threat mantra is now in our physicie..

Mines a pint, beers on you.

* last time I counted it

Move to London?

she is in london 🙁

I work in healthcare industry and the last two annual exhibitions/conferences have had dire turn outs.

hmm strange that, as the one sector that does seem to like spendning is the pharma industry. there was an event in Berlin this year where all the attendees recieved a 500€ cash gift to cover their inconveniences/costs of attending the two-day event. god knows what the whole gig must have cost the firm, but then for them it's a nice friendly way of reducing their taxable profits...

i like to think that i'm not a pessimistic person, more a realist, but in these circumstances the two are not that far apart... i have tended to agree with binners' astute analysis of the situation in the past, but have never been able to word it quite so eloquently.

so how do we go about future-proofing ourselves against the low-credit, low growth shitty outlook future?

[i]And be honest - can you see that happening any time soon.[/i]

Well, no, but it's not going to happen quickly anyway. And rebalance to what?

[i]So now we've got to bite the bullet [/i]

Agreed, but much of that bullet-biting is a required reduction in Govt spending, resulting in the cutbacks that, again, many/most of the left-leaning types are so vehemently against.

It sounds a little like you want to have your cake and eat it.

[i]The politicians are all sat around with their thumbs up their arses[/i]

Honestly (and I'm talking the UK here, the Euroshambles is another matter), I don't think they are. I think they're working incredibly hard trying to sort it out. Whether you agree with how they're doing it is an other matter but, much as I'm no fan of Gideon, I wouldn't want his job at the moment.

Honest question: if you were Chancellor, what would you do?

This is how capitalism works, its happened before and will happen again if its allowed to continue.

The difference in the shifting economies means that uk plc is increasingly becoming less 'relevant' globally, always difficult to accept that you know longer call the shots !

For some people this is an exciting time politically, the old order has run its course, is unable to affect the course of events, and there is not a new one ready to replace it Yet.
History shows that things can change very quickly, so its not all doom n gloom, just remember who's been shitting in your shoes all your life , and you shouldn't go far wrong !

Heres something- why don't all those companies that avoid tax in the UK START PAYING TAX OR LEAVE?

It'd start to make things abit more comfortable. **** you apple and amazon et al. Tossers. As with anyone, in these straightened-times, if I find out somewhere that I shop is avoiding social/moral responsibility I'll go elsewhere in future.

The Apple fanboi's would still buy their products though even if A Jimmy Saville keyring came with each one.

😆

To summarise: Get out of our obligations to failed Europe and back into the world. Export to the BRIC nations, where the money is.

bikebouy - Member
We'll get over it..

Just need to spend more of your savings.

The UK holds 1/3* of the worlds savings assets..

We're saving more for that "rainy day" when realyy if you eased up you'd ease the economy..

I would be interested to see where you get these figures from bikebouy. My understanding is that UK savings rate remains extremely low with latest stats (ECB) showing that we are saving less than half as much of our disposable income than our European peers (albeit a little bit more than we used to!)

The UK holds 1/3* of the worlds savings assets..

What does this actually mean ion the real world though? businesses are going to the wall. unemployment is increasing. The cost of living is becoming increasingly unsustainable for increasing numbers of people. The property market is grossly overinflated. Increasing numbers of people will default on their mortgage loans.

And worst of all, the East Europeans are moving back home, so even if the building trades were healthy, the quality of workmanship will drop dramatically and entire buildings will collapse.

€3.2bn Operating Profit for the first 9 months over here.

I can't believe the Euro has so far avoided imploding. Seems to have been teetering on the edge pissing money away for a while with no real improvement.

Interesting article in the Economist today:

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21566640-why-france-could-become-biggest-danger-europes-single-currency-time-bomb-heart

mikeconner - I thought at the last count unemployment went down, not up?

Rachel

Some would argue that's a return to normality from the excesses of the past.

druidh has a point here. I have seen truly obscene amounts of money spunked on corporate dos. There just isn't the cash slushing round in a lot of businesses to allow for this any more. I used to work for companies where Christmas parties were all paid for. This has been getting rarer and rarer over the years.

Also with trade fairs, conferences etc. I think that as more companies run on a leaner staff there simply aren't the bodies to free up for these events.

re. the uni thing. would it not be better if more kids were to learn on the job rather than believing that the only way into a job is via a university degree? my cousin finished two years ago and since then has been dossing at her BF's place whilst she goes from one "work experience job" (i.e. free labour) to another.... she finished her english and editorial degree with top marks.

To counter that, everyone I know who graduated with an engineering degree is either employed and earning very good money or made a decison after being made redundant to go traveling instead and hasn't come back! One guy in my class got lucky and is is practicaly semi-retired at 27 living in Cornwall and doing consulting work and surfing in aproximately equal measure!

But then 'editorial' sounds like media studies to me.

With £9k/pa tuition fees I can see a lot of non vocational degree courses (English, Geography, History, even Mathematics) struggling and a lot more people going onto Engineering and similar which have a much more definate job/career at the end. In some ways that's a good thing (those jobs pay well and generate growth) ont e other hand I suspect a lot of engineers have gotten used to being in demand and quite well paid despite our protestations that the plumber who fixes your boiler can call himself an engineer 😛

Yet this hasn't sunk in, and these idiots seem to think we can get out of it by doing more of the same. Madness!

It is possible to borrow your way out of a deficit.

That Economist article has caused a bit of a S-storm in Paris today!!!

Re: what the chancellor can/should do - its really about a very fine balancing act. To date, his error has been to over-emphasise the importance of fiscal consolidation (in the short term) and the ability of the private sector to compensate for cuts in the public sector. But to give him some credit, his hand was largely forced and he has avoided unnecessary pressure and focus on the fiscal mess that he inherited.

But its basic economics than not everyone can be in surplus, but that is exactly what is happening (or at least what people are attempting) at the moment. One party has to give and that is normally government - ie, you relax fiscal consolidation while other sectors of the economy are moving into surplus. But again this is very difficult to achieve.

But that is frankly a finger in the dyke when put against the external pressures - the lack of aggregate demand in the UK is domestically and externally driven. Its silly to criticise GO for complaining about the lack of growth in Europe because that has very real effects on activity and confidence levels. Until Europe sorts its mess out, it will be very difficult for the Uk to address its own problems unilaterally.

Germany ultimately has to bite the bullet and accept that creditor nations have to share the hit from the € catastrophe. Keynes understood this years ago, but Merkel doesn't. She needs to re-read the history of the Great Depression again and refresh herself with the outcome.

molgrips - Member

Yet this hasn't sunk in, and these idiots seem to think we can get out of it by doing more of the same. Madness!

It is possible to borrow your way out of a deficit.

It depends on how much debt you have in the first place though.

It is possible to borrow your way out of a deficit.

It's the only proven method of getting out of one. Historically, no one has achieved it through cutting expenditure....

Some UK companies (for example in the textile industry) are now finding that, with increasing wage and transport costs, the cost of manufacturing in China is now reaching a tipping point, where it is comparable to manufacturing in the UK. And the quality of UK manufactured goods has always been far higher due to a skilled workforce.

Trouble is we [i]were[/i] a skilled workforce. Past tense. Those skills are disappearing as nobody has trained anyone, or gone completely. We are reaping the whirlwind of terminally short-sighted decision making by companies looking exclusively at short term dividends to greedy shareholders

Also... we have a banking system that is totally dysfunctional, and unfit for purpose, infected as it is with the same chronic short-termism that has hobbled British industry.

British manufacturers simply cannot get credit to grow, even when they've got orders to fulfil. But the bankers still get their bonuses.

We effectively own the *ing banks! Why the * are we tolerating this behavior. The entire industry is acting against our national interest. And we're showering them with our money to do so!!! Its insanity! Utter madness!!

In short - Gideon has no policies. None at all. Nothing. He's cutting the public sector, which we all know needs to be done, but as for private sector... well... lets just hope for the best eh?

It is possible to borrow your way out of a deficit.

Yip - the economic powers-that-be in Europe have a fantastic track record of effectively and efficiently investing for the future, don't they? Lets borrow even more money, and hand it over to them to 'invest'. Its gone really well so far. I wouldn't give 'em their bus fare home!

And worst of all, the East Europeans are moving back home, so even if the building trades were healthy, the quality of workmanship will drop dramatically and entire buildings will collapse.

When I was having quotes for building work 3 Polish lads came round, stayed a fair while and gave me by far the highest price of the lot.

I went with one of the lower ones. The final price came out higher than the Polish lads. The builders actually struggled, figuring out along the way that this actually needed doing (it did) and that (it did). Exactly everything that the Poles said.

I'd only hire Poles now. Some are bad of course but by far their work rate/quality is better than some local **** who turns up.

IF 'they' do all go home we'll be left with tat again.

Its looking pretty lean even over in Asia though no where near as bad as the UK when I left in mid-2010, has it actualy got worse?

Oops double post

thisisnotaspoon - Member

To counter that, everyone I know who graduated with an engineering degree is either employed and earning very good money or made a decison after being made redundant to go traveling instead and hasn't come back! One guy in my class got lucky and is is practicaly semi-retired at 27 living in Cornwall and doing consulting work and surfing in aproximately equal measure!

But then 'editorial' sounds like media studies to me.

So your friends did worthwhile degrees & not Dog grooming & flower arranging so they could go on the piss for 3/4 years...

Japan experienced a 'lost decade' of no/very weak growth not so long ago.

Why is that a bad thing? They have managed to protect high living standards and public services despite no growth. Steady state is where it's at now.

IMHO it's £90K poorly spent

Yip - the economic powers-that-be in Europe have a fantastic track record of effectively and efficiently investing for the future, don't they?

I didn't say it was currently being done effectively.

I said it was possible.

No good political discussion was ever had whilst foaming at the mouth, binners... Relax, and put your point across thoughtfully and patiently, not vehemently and aggressively 🙂 you'll find it's far better received.

Why is that a bad thing? They have managed to protect high living standards and public services despite no growth. Steady state is where it's at now.

and look at what happened to their property values.
this government will do everything it can to manage a soft landing for U.K. house prices and not have a massive fall like other countries.
high interest rates and defaults on mortgages would really bring this country to it's knees, the only reason we are not heading to armageddon is the ability to print money, some would argue that's just delaying the inevitable.

Its one of those subjects that absolutely boils my piss though. Sorry 😈

I've taken my valium now molly 😀

and look at what happened to their property values.

Secondary importance. And lower property prices would benefit a great many people in this country.

Secondary importance. And lower property prices would benefit a great many people in this country.

lets not forget the high personal debt levels in this country
[img] [/img]

so they could go on the piss for 3/4 years...

The only students who are bigger pissheads than process engineers are doctors!

Any recovery is going to be slow simply because they are trying to manage the shit out of it.
Modern recessions are always going to be slow to get out of, now that everything is micro managed.
Letting it sort itself out would result in a much quicker recovery at the expense of social upheaval and mass poverty.

No one with an ounce of compassion wants to go there so we're left with a very slow economy regardless of which way they try to do it.

IMHO it's £90K poorly spent

90k on a trade show where customers come to you is infinitely preferable to 90k on six months on the road going to them.

ransos - Member

Japan experienced a 'lost decade' of no/very weak growth not so long ago.

Why is that a bad thing? They have managed to protect high living standards and public services despite no growth. Steady state is where it's at now.

Japan has the highest debt as a % of GDP in the developed world, is sat on a demographic timebomb and will also face its own debt crisis in the not too distant future when investors decide that earning 1% or less on Japanese government bonds is a bum deal.

They have tried all sorts of monetary and fiscal stimulus to try and inject some inflation and growth into their economy and all they have ended up with is a huge pile of debt.

Britain is not in a recession, Britain is in a RETAIL recession. Manufacturers are absolutely mad busy and you can't get seats on flights to business destinations because British exporters are travelling like never before. Traffic is back to 2009 levels. The government is measuring the economy through retail so getting a gloomy picture, meanwhile everybody is buying their goods off the web and traditional retail figures are not picking them up.

Yip - the economic powers-that-be in Europe have a fantastic track record of effectively and efficiently investing for the future, don't they?

Post WWII about 30-40 years of growth was based on borrowing.

The only students who are bigger pissheads than process engineers are doctors!

Oi, we lived nest door to a house of doc's, and we definately drank more!

Japan has the highest debt as a % of GDP in the developed world, is sat on a demographic timebomb and will also face its own debt crisis in the not too distant future when investors decide that earning 1% or less on Japanese government bonds is a bum deal.

They have tried all sorts of monetary and fiscal stimulus to try and inject some inflation and growth into their economy and all they have ended up with is a huge pile of debt.

Hungarian is going to be the next country to seek a bail out.

So your friends did worthwhile degrees & not Dog grooming & flower arranging so they could go on the piss for 3/4 years...

Ah, so 'media studies' degrees (which I assume you are referring to) aren't worthwhile then?

Interesting that you say that, on an internet forum.

To counter that, everyone I know who graduated with an engineering degree is either employed and earning very good money or made a decison after being made redundant to go traveling instead and hasn't come back! One guy in my class got lucky and is is practicaly semi-retired at 27 living in Cornwall and doing consulting work and surfing in aproximately equal measure!

But then 'editorial' sounds like media studies to me.

Some of the wealthiest, most successful and happiest people I know graduated in 'media studies'. These are some of the people who now run the media that you consume, such as newspapers, TV, film, journalism, publishing etc. These people are really quite a lot more influential in your life than you might actually realise. It's easy to dismiss something you have little knowledge of.

Truth is that we need people with a borad spectrum of abilities and interests, in order for society to flourish in a positive manner. We need our artists, poets, musicians etc as much as we need our engineers. have a look at how much money the creative industries generate. Have a look at just how influenetial our media industries are; many of them set the standard the rest of the world follows. Whilst some of our engineering is top class, the rest of the worlds is catching up and overtaking us (remeber when British made products used to be the very best? Now if you want something to work, you're often better off buying foreign products). Yet our creative industries are still producing world-beating products. I fear that a lower uptake of 'media studies' degrees could well lead to cultural stagnation and the demise of Britain's position at the top of that tree.

Give your child both a spanner and a paintbrush. Let them choose which tool they are more comfortable with.

Manufacturers are absolutely mad busy and you can't get seats on flights to business destinations because British exporters are travelling like never before.

This is true, trying to book flights to Poland, Austria, Denmark etc from Manchester is a nightmare at the moment, every commuter filght i'm on is absolutely packed!

On the plus side it means i'm flying via places like Frankfurt and Berlin bringing me much closer to my SAS gold card 😀

Flight to Vienna 2 weeks ago, booked last minute was over £400, one way!

It's better than pre-2008 surely - totally ignoring the obvious unsustainability of how we were living

Plenty of people knew we were heading for a storm but either kept their mouths shut because they were creaming it or shouted down by those that were creaming it.

We've learnt a very valuable lesson about debt and credit and 'wealth' that I think earlier generations (pre Baby Boomers) fully understood but has been forgotten or possibly never known by younger generations.

Once we've learnt that globalisation has changed our relative wealth and settled into a more financially sustainable situation I think we'll be far better off, morally and financially...

I think a few more Brits need to visit some third world or Arab countries and realise that relatively, in economic wealth and political freedom we're still one of the richest countries in the world

And it'll happen again in 3 generations time when those who haven't lived through what we're living through are making the decisions...

Give your child both a spanner and a paintbrush. Let them choose which tool they are more comfortable with.

Or a computer 🙂

Japan has the highest debt as a % of GDP in the developed world, is sat on a demographic timebomb and will also face its own debt crisis in the not too distant future when investors decide that earning 1% or less on Japanese government bonds is a bum deal.

Japan also has low unemployment, low inequality, low crime, high literacy & numeracy, high life expectancy and universal healthcare. I'm not arguing it's all rosy, but I am arguing that they've managed to protect the things that do the most good for most people.

The world has changed, and we need to change with it. Just as the post-war consensus ended, so has laissez-faire capitalism. I'm saying to you that looking for continual economic growth as the answer is a dead end.

Things are going to get much worse, the impact of the spending cuts hasn't been fully felt yet. Double/triple dip is irrelevant, really it's been one long period of economic contraction.

Paying back debt is painful, we all borrowed too much (people, companies, governments)

@brooess makes some very good points

hora - Member

And worst of all, the East Europeans are moving back home, so even if the building trades were healthy, the quality of workmanship will drop dramatically and entire buildings will collapse.

When I was having quotes for building work 3 Polish lads came round, stayed a fair while and gave me by far the highest price of the lot.

I went with one of the lower ones. The final price came out higher than the Polish lads. The builders actually struggled, figuring out along the way that this actually needed doing (it did) and that (it did). Exactly everything that the Poles said.

hmm... not agrreing with you on that one, Hora....

had a job in shop fitting job in Poland a few months back. why didn't they use Polish guys? because it was a Japanese company and they wanted "German" quality.

on the way there we stayed in a newly finished hotel. the materials used were good quality, the workmanship less so:

[img][url= http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8068/8190902994_1868f752af.jp g" target="_blank">http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8068/8190902994_1868f752af.jp g"/> [/img][/url] [url= http://www.flickr.com/photos/72344643@N00/8190902994/ ]poland4[/url] by [url= http://www.flickr.com/people/72344643@N00/ ]sod_the_taxman[/url], on Flickr[/img]
[img][url= http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8337/8189820545_b5ccc85e81.jp g" target="_blank">http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8337/8189820545_b5ccc85e81.jp g"/> [/img][/url] [url= http://www.flickr.com/photos/72344643@N00/8189820545/ ]poland3[/url] by [url= http://www.flickr.com/people/72344643@N00/ ]sod_the_taxman[/url], on Flickr[/img]
[img][url= http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8484/8189820615_c9f9d28745.jp g" target="_blank">http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8484/8189820615_c9f9d28745.jp g"/> [/img][/url] [url= http://www.flickr.com/photos/72344643@N00/8189820615/ ]poland2[/url] by [url= http://www.flickr.com/people/72344643@N00/ ]sod_the_taxman[/url], on Flickr[/img]

the tools are in the room as we asked the (admittedly lovely receptionist) whether the van & tools were safe over night. "no" she said despite the van being parked in their locked carpark.... 😕

Trouble is we were a skilled workforce. Past tense. Those skills are disappearing as nobody has trained anyone, or gone completely. We are reaping the whirlwind of terminally short-sighted decision making by companies looking exclusively at short term dividends to greedy shareholders

You might not be the 'go to' man for Middle Eastern affairs, but I can't fault your logic here. The hard, unpalatable truth is that wer'e actually no longer very good at many of the things we used to be very good at. And we're not making any effort to become good at them again, probably because they demand hard work, dedication and commitment. Things which many people don't want to do, because it's easier to buy 'success' on credit.

double post madness.

Oh God. Me and Mike seem to be in complete agreement again. What on earths going on?

My sister works in media in London, with a lot of people with those supposedly useless degrees. The media company she works for is mad busy. The majority of the clients are all over the world. She's always traveling. Examples: Ikea and Renault are a couple of hers. Creative industries like this are responsible for a huge chunk of our exports. Have you seen what a London advertising agency charges for a worldwide product launch, for example? We're talking eye-watering sums of money here!

And foreign companies use British creative agencies, and are happy to spend those sums of money, for one very simple reason. That they're the very best in the world! By a significant margin!

new mother in law set up a book design business about a year ago with a friend and she's bringing in nearly 350k for the first year... with work booked up for the next 2-3 years already. creative industry, clients from all over europe and america

Mike - here's an example. From my ex-wifes bitter experience. Christy towels, formally base in Hyde, in Manchester. They were bought out by an Indian company, who shut down their UK manufacturing and moved it to India. The result - over 100 years of expertise - people who'd worked doing that all their lives, was lost. They were all thrown onto the dole.

Turns out the company was only after the 'Brand'. Meanwhile over in India, the manufacturing, staffed by unskilled, poorly paid workers can get nowhere near to achieving the quality that their main clients - Marks and Spencers, John Lewis etc demand (and received for years!). so container-load, after container-load of Indian made towels are rejected and sent back to India, or sold cheap to discounters.

Until, of course, the companies lose patience and cancel their contract. Choosing to have them made in Turkey instead. They couldn't have chosen to go to a British supplier as there are none left. Despite a pool of people who are experts at this all languishing on the dole, or stacking shelves in Tesco. Those skills are now permanently lost to our economy. Once they're gone, they're gone

The Christy manufacturing site has, somewhat predictably, been sold to be developed as flats

Its all pretty depressing

I never realised you married for money 😉

350k

I can't say I'm sorry to see some of the Eastern Europeans (Poles) going back, very bad experiences round our way with poor workmanship, massive cost overruns, ignorance (or just ignoring) building regs. I have never used them. I don't appreciate them claiming child benefit wither for their families back home. By all means come here with skills and settle but a very large portion brought none and just exported their earnings back home.

Its all pretty depressing

Hmm.. but do people in the UK actually want work making paper towels? Are there other more interesting jobs to do?

60 years ago most of us were employed putting things in machines or pulling levers, weren't we?

My dad, with similar skills and aptitude to me, started as a mining electrician. He hated it, and thank F I didn't have to do that shit.