[Closed] 2019 General Election

There aren’t people voting to keep Corbyn out.

I never said that, I said that the number of remainers, especially remain labour voters voting tory to keep Corbyn out will be tiny.

Where as there is far more unity when it comes to Corbyn.

Well at least you've got your excuse ready. How many of those disliking Corbyn do so because he compromised with the remainers in his party? That poll seems to suggest rather a lot in key marginal seats.

There are more ways to beat your opponent than to try and ape their core policy. Labour are not losing simply because they aren’t winning over people who consider Leave more important than other issues… they are losing because not enough people, Leave or Remain or unsure, outside his core support, really trust or want Corbyn to be PM.

Anyway, vote Labour. Ignore the cultists.
Stop Johnson, he’s the only truly dangerous person trying to get into #10.

kelvin

Subscriber

Hurrah! Those pesky LibDems are losing support (meaning more Tory MPs)… hurrah!

You think the lib dem voters are mostly going Tory? i think their ridiculous campaign has probably ensured that a lot of their lost votes are going to go green and PC and be wasted instead, which isn't good. Others will probably just not vote at all. But I don't see that on balance the Tories are the likely beneficiaries of a Lib Dem collapse.

kelvin

Subscriber

There are people who don’t want Brexit, but are still voting Tory, because… Corbyn…

Definitely true. Question is, how many of them could have been convinced, over the course of a few years, to vote Tory because... Cooper. Or Burnham, or whoever else was up there. Ed Miliband was an inoffensive bit of ****-all and they somehow managed to do it to him, it was like demonising a smurf

Corbyn's an easier target, is all. And considering what people manage to believe- that he's simultaneously a weakling who can't manage his own party, AND leading a savage cull of everyone who disagrees with him, to give you a Binners-sized example- I'm not sure how much that actually matters. The only people acceptable to those who run that particular game, are by definition exactly the same people nobody else should want

So far, so obvious. What to do about it? ****ed if I know. You can't win by playing their game their way. Same as brexit, give them exactly what they say they want and the next day it's not even brexit at all. In Scotland, we responded to monstering by going tribal, "aye, but she's our monster", and that's not so good either. Zealotry's another bad response, and blindness, and delusion. What's the good response?

Give Corbyn and co their due, they've finally got around to one of hte better responses- saying damn the torpedoes, and just going full ahead. If we go moderate we'll still get called crazy extremists, so we might as well take the one good that comes with that and actually get a bit crazy- it's like permission. I don't think it's going to work, personally- not defeatist, that's just an opinion. But I don't know what they can do better

You think the lib dem voters are mostly going Tory?

I think the LibDems losing support means they won’t win target seats off the Tories, so Johnson will have more MPs.

Talk about mental acrobatics, you were the one saying this election was about more than brexit, now it's remainers fault for Labour being too remainy, and apparently you're happy to condemn the turkeys to the Christmas they're voting for, despite berating others for doing the same previously.
Nicely done. :/

kelvin

Subscriber

I think the LibDems losing support means they won’t win target seats off the Tories

Of the Lib Dems' key target seats and their marginals, only about half are Tory/threatened by a Tory. They're putting at least as much effort into fighting the biggest remain party as they are the Tories.

I was going to discount the fantasy targets like Finchley, Kensington, Slough, and City of London, where they claimed to believe they can win, despite being hopelessly distant. But that'd be a mistake, because that's 3 Labour and 1 tory marginal where they're making a Tory win more likely,

Understand me, there's nothing wrong with them taking seats off Labour and the SNP, it's just that if they're honest this isn't a campaign to beat the tories, it's a campaign to be 4th without any apparent concerns who wins. Most likely, a couple of points swing to the Lib Dems does the opposite, while a couple of points away helps keep some seats red instead of blue. Any more than that and who knows?

Truth is, if they pick up a seat or two but drive 3 or 4 blue, they'll still consider that a win, same as Labour considered 2017 a win for them in Scotland even though the Scottish tory gains literally put them into government. And remember, they've been totally clear that they'll support a Tory minority government for the right price, another referendum. This sounding familiar?

(too late for an edit)

Bottom line is, the Lib Dems look like they're running a remain campaign, but actually they're running a Lib Dem campaign. People say that it's not the Lib Dems' job to put labour into power- but if they do want to stop brexit, then yes it is, because that's the best way to make it happen.

Are they putting brexit before party? Not even a little bit. Are they running the campaign that makes brexit least likely? No.

And anyone who's sticking with the hope that the Lib Dems help keep the tories out hasn't been listening to the lib dems frankly.

There are people who don’t want Brexit, but are still voting Tory, because… Corbyn…

It seems from the polling that Tory remainers aren't voting Labour because Tory, but labour leavers are voting Tory because leave. I don't know what that says about Tories, labourites or voters in general.

It seems from the polling that Tory remainers aren’t voting Labour because Tory,

I do wonder how this will translate on the day of the race though; at work where I’ve had multiple political chats over the past week it feels like the enthusiasm factor is with remain/younger Labour voters, and the apathy factor is with both the Labour leavers and the Tory remainers who must both feel somewhat disenfranchised. We shall see, but I doubt the polls are telling the whole truth.

https://twitter.com/BassetlawC/status/1199833790899793920?s=09

For us, it's going the way expected. Move from Labour to Tory, not because of Corbyn but because we're 68% leave.

First time for Tory in nearly a 100 years.

Yikes.

Anybody got any numbers on leave / Marginals?

I do wonder how this will translate on the day of the race though;

Yeah, me too. It's too bad advanced symbolics, or whatever they are called, don't operate over here. This would be their forte.

You know what they say, if you don't vote left when you are young you have no heart, if you don't vote right when you are older, you have no head.
The young tend to skew left and remain.
I think it will come down to the labour leavers - if they really are willing to vote tory just to get brexit, that's Johnson's majority. If not maybe, just maybe a conservative minority.

now it’s remainers fault for Labour being too remainy,

Not this morning by all accounts. Labour intend to push Leave even more. That makes them even less appealing.

No doubt this will be put down to Biased Broadcasting Corporation by the usual suspects.

At 42 years of age, I’m wondering if I’ll ever see a real UK Labour Government.

I don’t count NL and my memory of the other two years is too fuzzy to count.

But at least we’ll be principled about it.

Hope now much rest on the young or an end of Union. Ideally both so we don’t have to exist next to a Tory utopia.

I'm a decade older than you and I can. Harold Wilson's second stab at PM. It wasn't a great time.

First time around he was supposed to be a honourable and productive PM; when I was on the scene he was hapless and ineffective, partly due to the minority Govt he had.

You'll have to find an even older fart than me to get the glory years of Labour

It does all rest on the young but unfortunately the young become old and by the time they are 45 have switched to an I'm alright jack way of thinking so there will always be the 50%+ of the population who will vote tory.

My solution, only let people vote between ages of 16 and 50

At 42 years of age, I’m wondering if I’ll ever see a real UK Labour Government.

I’m 40 so tell me about it! It’s a dubious honour indeed to be have been born a month after Thatcher arrived on the scene.

My solution, only let people vote between ages of 16 and 50

Maybe couple that with euthanasia and you could start a political party. Maybe you could call it your 'final solution'

What's most chucklesome from that is that all people always think they are right, wherever on the spectrum they are. The don't get that other folk also think they are right, it's only perspective.

Not recognising that is called ignorance.

They’re putting at least as much effort into fighting the biggest remain party as they are the Tories.

The SNP?

Anyway, yes, the LibDems dropping away will mean a few more Labour MPs, as well as a few more Tory MPs… making Johnson’s majority more likely, but securing Labour’s position as the official opposition. As I said in my original sarcastic post.

But at least we’ll be principled about it.

Great.

I never voted for New Labour, but I’d take a compromised Labour Party in government over having Johnson and friends in government for the next 10 years… in a heartbeat.

So if the polls are to be believed ( and I really doubt it) then a tory government and the forthcoming hard brexit will inevitably lead to the breakup of the UK, a united ireland and an independent Scotland

Do those English leavers really think that a price worth paying?

When asked, the majority say yes.

[ wave your polyester flag of St George ]

https://news.sky.com/story/breakup-of-uk-a-price-worth-paying-for-brexit-say-leave-voters-in-poll-11863830

, I’m wondering if I’ll ever see a real UK Labour Government

The generally excepted theory is that Labour would need at least 40 Scottish seats to get back into majority govt. But in reality if they're prepared to make a deal with other opposition parties, their target is a lot less than the Tories (who don't have that option with anyone despite TJs opinion of the Lib dems) I also think the MRP poll is too far out, there's still 2 weeks of campaign left. They got it less wrong than everyone else last time, but the data was much closer to voting day

At 42 years of age, I’m wondering if I’ll ever see a real UK Labour Government.

At Westminster? Unlikely given the apparent political leaning of the English electorate.

It was once said that the only possibility of a Tory revival in Scotland would be after independence. Ironic that the same should now be true of Labour.

Labour coming slightly off the fence on Brexit to try to win Leave voters in the North:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50580699

Do those English leavers really think that a price worth paying?

Yes

So the Labour 'strategists' have decided they need to go full Farage? Brilliant! Utter genius! Thats bound to work at this stage after three years of fence-sitting and Corbyns 'honest broker' bollocks.

Can we look forward to the Kate Hoey frontin the campaign from now?

There aren’t people voting to keep Corbyn out.

a united ireland and an independent Scotland

Ok, I'll bite. The Labour leadership have been in favour of a United Ireland since forever. Labour don't even stand candidates in NI.

One likely route for Labour to win power in two weeks is with a deal with the SNP which the SNP say will require another Indyref.

If Labour do win outright they will be conceding the idea that referendums should be held again after 3 years in case people have changed their minds - I can't see how they could reasonably hold another Brexit Ref but not an Indyref.

If the Torys win or become largest party there won't be an Indyref, not least because the SNP won't support a Tory Government.

I can see a clear path for a Labour vote leading to Scottish Independence. I see no clear path the NI leaving full stop or to the Torys letting Scotland go.

For us, it’s going the way expected. Move from Labour to Tory, not because of Corbyn but because we’re 68% leave.

First time for

Of course Corbyn could have tried to win the labour leavers round....

And obviously nothing to do with labour leadership sacking the local candidate chosen by the local membership weeks before polling day....

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/11/labour-machine-now-believes-it-can-be-brutal-it-likes

With local party members said to be 'incandescent with rage'

Do those English leavers really think that a price worth paying?

When asked 'would having your own children getting their throats slit in front of you by a man with a big machete be a price worth paying to leave the EU?' 98% of leave voters said yes

I hadn’t voted for 25 years and only started again because of Corbyn.

Me too. I've never been party political and since I've been old enough to vote I was content with all the parties so never felt the need to vote. Corbyn and Brexit have got me voting this time. Either of them would have been enough.

then a tory government and the forthcoming hard brexit will inevitably lead to the breakup of the UK, a united ireland and an independent Scotland

At the moment, labour are pushing the same agenda. Bizarrely

I forget if it was daz or tj who insisted I didn't understand the purpose of opposition when I suggested that Labour should be a counter to Tory policies.

Now they are coming together on the most pressing issue of the day and leaving normal peeps without a workable alternative to 'Leave'

The whole system needs to be reset. This isn't working.

OOB

If the tories win there will be an independent Scotland within a few years. Make no mistake about that. While I do not see what the mechanism will be there is no way on earth the population of Scotland will accept a hard right tory government and brexit.

The UN has some interesting stuff on " self determination"

The momentum towards an independent Scotland will be irresistible. Even die hard unionists would prefer an independent scotland in the EU to remaining in the UK outside the EU

For the hard right sacrificing the Union is a small price to pay to deregulate the economy, get rid of the NHS & jettison those pesky EU regs on workers rights, environmental protections, food standards etc

And Johnson's hard Brexit is already delivering! Just as the Americans demanded in that leaked document, he moved them from the legally binding WA to the meaningless PD

What's amazing is that so many people still think Brexit is in their interests!

Thats bound to work at this stage after three years

I agree they probably should’ve done it earlier.

So if the polls are to be believed ( and I really doubt it) then a tory government and the forthcoming hard brexit will inevitably lead to the breakup of the UK, a united ireland and an independent Scotland

Do those English leavers really think that a price worth paying?

So not so much a price worth paying as a silver lining.

OOB

On NI

the path is obvious. Enshrined in the GFA is that a "border poll" will be held if the poulation want it and the polling clearly shows a majority for a united ireland in the event of brexit. So that route is clear adn obvious

Labour don’t even stand candidates in NI

In much the same way that the Sun is not sold in Liverpool.

They still smart that Wilson called them all spongers. And tried to cut them loose from the UK

I agree they probably should’ve done it earlier.

Yes, Corbyn should have stood down in 2017.

Go to these currently Labour seats where the leave vote was strong… ask them what they think of Corbyn. He could offer to match the Tories on Brexit, and they would still not vote for him. He’s voter kryptonite in some of these areas.

The majority of people on STW are (politically) in the minority, in a national sense.

Erm...

5th - personally I would prefer a proper federal UK. An independent Scotland is a second best to that but its a damn sight better than remaining in a hard right UK with brexit which would be an utter disaster.

Anyway… one more local voter has told me this morning that they will now vote Labour. Polling from last night being key. While Johnson is looking to romp home, more people will wake up to what needs doing in their seat to try to reduce his seat count by one.

5th – personally I would prefer a proper federal UK. An independent Scotland is a second best to that but its a damn sight better than remaining in a hard right UK with brexit which would be an utter disaster.

Plenty of folk in Norn Irn have a very strong view on it, however.

I agree they probably should’ve done it earlier.

If they think that getting all Brexity at this stage is going to have leavers voting for them, when they've got full Farage or ever-so-slightly-less-Farage Tory party options, then they've denser than I thought (if thats possible)

Mind you, when you've the strategic genius that is Karie Murphy at the helm as your head of electoral strategy...

While Johnson is looking to romp home, more people will wake up to what needs doing in their seat to try to reduce his seat count by one.

Radio 4 saying this morning that CCHQ' biggest fear at the moment is that the Tory's are walking it to such a degree that they fear voter apathy in the blue-rinse old giffers assuming its in the bag anyway and not voting. Given the present shambles that is the labour campaign, thats surely our last hope. I'm hoping for a heavy snowfall and freezing temperatures