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double digit falls for Labour everywhere
it doesnt matter how clueless drunken uncle Bozo rambles on about the NI border he doesnt understand
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1192815365136568320
If you write the questions, you can skew the results. Using phrases like “Thinking of X, do you agree that Y… ” can steer people into agreeing with the question.
Of course, this is clear. But you're saying that they deliberately choose leading questions depending on who's paying for the poll. That's the big claim you've made, where's the evidence for that?
A good pollster would carefully choose questions that avoid this issue. You're saying they're all basically bent.
Pretty consistetnt picture there. However, how it plays out on a constituency by constituency basis will give very different answers and also there is plenty of time for peopel to change their mind. I image at this stage people are mor elikely to say who they would like to vote for, but by the end tactical voting will com into play and they mmay vore elsewhere
How come they add up to 100%, without a column for "all others"?
For example my local MP was Labour and is now an independent, I'll likely vote for him as I believe the two and a half party system has basically broken the design of our form of democracy, and that there should be far more independent MPs than there are, although I'll need to look at the detailed projections in a few weeks to make sure that I'm not enabling the Tories by voting for him.
If that's the case then I'll hold my nose and vote for whoever isn't a Tory who has the best chance of winning, just the thought of which is making me feel dirty inside.
EDIT: Pointless comment given the analysis below.
analysis here
Thanks Kimbers, "polling, carried out between 17 October and 4 November". Really doesn't tell us much.
They're all You-Gov.
You need the aggregate poll to really make sense of things.
It's a comparison between regions back in 2017 and currently. Not last week and this week OOB. And no it's I don't think it correlates to spending - that after all would be a good thing.
Though it's still interesting.
spending - after all would be a good thing.
Interest on debt is our 6th biggest public spending item at 39bn. Where do you think voters would like to see it? 1st? 3rd?
For a party that doesn't like wealthy bankers it's seems a bit odd to give them even more than the current 39bn a year - 9bn a year MORE than we spend on social services.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_national_debt
Of course, this is clear. But you’re saying that they deliberately choose leading questions depending on who’s paying for the poll. That’s the big claim you’ve made, where’s the evidence for that?
A good pollster would carefully choose questions that avoid this issue. You’re saying they’re all basically bent.
That was my post .... but I agree with willard's reply....
Is it bent to get the answer you're being paid for?
Dunno.... I feel its 'more bent' to pay for an answer than provide the answer you're paid to deliver???
Interest on debt is our 6th biggest public spending item at 39bn. Where do you think voters would like to see it? 1st? 3rd?
For a party that doesn’t like wealthy bankers it’s seems a bit odd to give them even more than the current 39bn a year – 9bn a year MORE than we spend on social services.
but if we spend more it increases our GDP ....surely we just need to spend more and more?
Is it bent to get the answer you’re being paid for?
Yes, when you're claiming to be polling actual voting intention. I do not think they are paid to produce campaign advertising material, tbh. If so, the answers would be rather different I'd imagine, or Labour would be asking for their money back.
So, I'm on http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/uk-parliament, and putting the latest YouGov figures (from the Guardian) into it gives a Tory majority of 30, still no Brexit party seats and only 12 LD seats.
Many of us tried to say that Labour coming off the fence for remain would damage their polling - looks like that is happening even with the 2nd ref promise.
From that YouGov poll (so, boo) and might be out of date (boo again) but a good sample size (so, yay)
Brilliant isn't it? Tory share of votes down, Tory seats up.
Hands up who voted against voting reform?
Hands up who voted against voting reform
At least 100 Labour MPs
but if we spend more it increases our GDP ….surely we just need to spend more and more?
Of course, I'd forgotten that fact, thanks for the reminder. ....and that explains why every single country in the world has now become phenomenally wealthy simply by borrowing more and more in an endless virtuous cycle of debt leading to growth.
Oh, hang on...
If those polls above are right then all but a tiny few of us are f*****! And we'll deserve it. Lets hope they're wrong. Although I watched the labour rally in Manchester last night and came to the strong conclusion that Angela Rayner will be the next labour leader. That might be the only silver lining.
I need to register to vote as I’m out of the UK. Where does my vote go/get counted? The last place I was registered in the UK?
Exactly. You'll need to confirm when you left the UK and how you want to vote (postal or proxy mainly)
Question for the various experts here - how should I vote? I don't want people to debate my views (they're not perfect, but they're mine) - just advice on which way to vote and why.
If I had to rank my personal priorities they would be:
- Stop Brexit/ at least keep the UK in the common market.
- Kick out the Tories, and associated racist populists.
- Prevent mass nationalisation and appropriation of listed companies, private schools etc
- Avoid electing anti-semitic and/or racist populists to power, it'll only encourage them.
Logic would probably suggest Lib Dems - they're not openly in favour of mass nationalisation, and they're not the Tories. But they won't win a majority, and there's a real risk of splitting the anti-racist populist vote.
The other option is Labour, but if they get a majority to start pushing through their more radical plans, the whole country's going to hell in a handcart, with large companies fleeing, government debt rocketing (energy companies don't come cheap), etc.
So, what do you suggest and why?
Any NHS workers in the house?
Seems the Gov are trying to impose Purdah regs on NHS workers. Some of my wife’s colleagues have been asked to remove some pretty innocent tweets about a recent wounds conference, completely unpolitical other than some references to increased need for services.
NHS staff have to behave as professionals at all times. You must not do anything even in your time out of work to bring the profession into disrepute ( professionally registered staff ) My guess would be that this is just them being reminded of that Social media policy is quite tight.
Perhaps with some over zealous manager adding to it / takin git too far. they can refuse expecially if they believe it is withing the social media policy
for example " the NHS needs more funding and staff" should be OK " my unit is always shortstaffed" is not ( by my understanding)
I'd be asking the person pushing this for why and ask to see the policy that allows the manager to ask for the tweets to be removed.
We normally get a reminder about social media policy and making overt political statements around the time of any election. Not had one yet but I do remember getting one during the two referenda
I need to register to vote as I’m out of the UK. Where does my vote go/get counted? The last place I was registered in the UK?
Exactly. You’ll need to confirm when you left the UK and how you want to vote (postal or proxy mainly)
Question for the various experts here – how should I vote? I don’t want people to debate my views (they’re not perfect, but they’re mine) – just advice on which way to vote and why.
If I had to rank my personal priorities they would be:
– Stop Brexit/ at least keep the UK in the common market.
– Kick out the Tories, and associated racist populists.
– Prevent mass nationalisation and appropriation of listed companies, private schools etc
– Avoid electing anti-semitic and/or racist populists to power, it’ll only encourage them.Logic would probably suggest Lib Dems – they’re not openly in favour of mass nationalisation, and they’re not the Tories. But they won’t win a majority, and there’s a real risk of splitting the anti-racist populist vote.
The other option is Labour, but if they get a majority to start pushing through their more radical plans, the whole country’s going to hell in a handcart, with large companies fleeing, government debt rocketing (energy companies don’t come cheap), etc.So, what do you suggest and why?
You sound like you're in the same boat as me. I guess it depends on your constituency: if the Lib Dems have a chance of winning the seat then you're probably best off voting for them; if they're too far behind to win then I'd say that any party that's closest and isn't UKIP or BP is going to be your only choice.
JP
So, what do you suggest and why?
Depends on your constituency
If a Labour Tory marginal, then Labour, if lib dems or even green in with a shout them to for them
realistically best we can hope for a Labour/lib dem coalition so whatever works
It’s a comparison between regions back in 2017 and currently.
Yes… Labour’s actions since 2017 have turned away lots of voters. Especially as they took their votes as “a vote for Brexit” when all polling said that the opposite was the case; people who voted Labour overwhelming wanted Brexit stopped. No surprise there. BUT, the polls are comparing the 2017 Election Day with 2019 before the election campaign really gets going… Labour won a lot of people over during the 2017 campaign, and hopefully will do so again this time.
If those polls above are right then all but a tiny few of us are f*****! And we’ll deserve it.
Things can change, but this election will be about damage limitation for Labour, if they can get close to their 2017 seat count, they’ll be doing well. We are reliant on Labour bouncing in the polls back towards 2017 Election Day levels AND the other opposition parties taking far more Tory seats than they currently look to be heading for.
Currently, Labour do not seem to understand what the game is… get enough MPs from all the other parties to block a Johnson government. SNP seem to really get it, from the way they are taking, as do those parties stepping aside in some England & Wales seats for parties they have little in common with other than stopping Brexit and Johnson.
Just catching up on the thread. The polling posted above which shows Tories with big majority is at odds with the betting sites. SkyBet have Tories at 321 with just worse than evens for a majority.
I've no idea how all this would land but even the simple national Westminster voting intentions are all the place so any breakdown at constituency level is virtually impossible
How odd that YouGov polls are so optimistic regarding the Tories and so pessimistic regarding Labour, it's almost as if there is some motive behind the quality of their polling.
Oh hang on, wasn't YouGov started up by Stephan Shakespeare, former owner of ConservativeHome and Nadhim Zahawi (who needs no introduction really), slumlord and Tory?
You couldn't make it up. Oh wait you can.
Whatever these bad early polls for Labour in the last election worked in their favour, through the course of the campaign they closed the polls which put more pressure on the Tories.
I was about to say the same ctk … I have no idea why YouGuv rigging their polling (they don’t, this is just blame the messenger syndrome) to show a Tory lead helps the Tories… it should help to get people involved in the opposition campaigns and get people out to vote as things swing away form the Tories as the campaign goes on. Hopefully it will also focus minds on stopping Johnson.
I have no idea why YouGuv rigging their polling (they don’t, this is just blame the messenger syndrome) to show a Tory lead helps the Tories…
Back-a-winner syndrome. Have you ever wondered why big football clubs acquire so many extra supporters from outside the local area? And why Trump's perceived 'success' in business is so appealing to certain US voters?
Also, if Labour are well behind in the polls, it doesn't always galvanize supporters, for many it will de-motivate them - 'what's the point of even voting?' etc.
Anybody just anybody but bullsh1tboris and I don't care if I have to hold my nose but working in engineering and manufacturing has taught me these guys don't give a toss about this sector.
This is my only post on the subject this is a mtb group after all 😉
JeZ
On the idea that labour would not join a progressive or anti brexit / anti tory alliance
Its very politically difficult for them to do so and Swinson was totally dishonest about the idea making demands that she knew would be impossible for labour. she just didn't want them joining so she laid out preconditions that she knew were unacceptable to labour
Compare Sturgeons reactions to Swinsons. Then decide who was being genuine and who was playing games
Sturgeon has been speaking very well about what might happen post election.
Swinson has been working to try and increase the number of non-Tory MPs, even where those MPs are not from her own party.
Corbyn has been working for a Labour majority or bust, leaving it ‘till after the election to address and deal with reality.
Swinson deliberately ( IMO) made it impossible to have a pre election pact with labour
Sturgeon ( about a pre election pact / joint action in parliament) said ( I paraphrase) " I do not think much of Corbyn but I will do whatever I can to stop brexit so if that means working with Corbyn I will". Swinson said. "I will not do any deal while corbyn is leader".
Thats the difference.
After the Tories made cuts to education would you trust Gove and BoJo?
Hell no.
Yes TJ, Sturgeon has spoken very well about what should happen post election, the other opposition parties (other than Labour) have, despite huge policy and personality differences, managed to come to an electoral agreement to get a few more non-Tory MPs (hopefully). Labour is just throwing shit at the SNP and all the other opposition parties… and keep ruling out cooperation that we all know might be needed after an election, and haven’t worked towards the election of a single non Labour non Tory MP in a single seat. Greens, SNP, PC & LibDems are talking about, and dealing with, the reality of stopping Brexit and stopping Johnson. Labour are refighting the 2017 election, and hoping not to lose seats, while talking up, and only talking about, a majority Labour government that is just not going to happen.
Labour are refighting the 2017 election, and hoping not to lose seats, while talking up, and only talking about, a majority Labour government that is just not going to happen.
You want them to campaign to lose? The simple fact is that labour are the only party who can unseat the tories. The only way they can do that is with a positive campaign. The minute they start helping other parties, they guarantee that they lose.
The simple fact is that labour are the only party who can unseat the tories.
See, this is nonsense. There will not be a Labour majority this time, the only way to unseat the Tory government is to unseat Tory MPs everywhere it is remotely possible, which will require lots of parties winning seats off of them, not just the Labour Party. Ignoring this is the mistake Labour are making, and why a Tory majority is too likely for comfort. The SNP need to take seats off the Tories. The LibDems need to take seats off the Tories. PC & the Greens need to at least keep their seats, and ideally grab one or two more off of the Tories.
Kelvin - the lib dems simply have not done so. They have placed conditions on any co operation with labour that are impossible for labour to agree. IMO this was done deliberately to attempt to give the lib dems the high moral ground. Well it ain't fooled me
The pact with the greens and PC is very one way only working in the lib dems favour and is also highly hypocritical as they will work with PC in wales but refused to work with SNP in Scotland because the SNP want independence. Well what do PC want?
Also the position on referenda is hypocritical in supporting a second EU one but not a second scots one.