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The real fact checking is really who is paying for FB ads….
Isn't there now a portal where you can see what FB ads have been paid for and who's seeing them?
Can the Tories reset after a very poor couple of days full of gaffes?
Will Labours good couple of days be reflected in polls?
All this and more in next week's episode of...
About that Remain pact. I'm struggling to see who is stepping aside for the LibDems in my constituency, Cheadle.
molgrips - I believe there is.
Just posted on the Hebden Bridge facebook group by the lib dems. 2017 result was:
Craig Whittaker (Cons) - 26790
Joshua Fenton Glyn (Labour) - 26181
Janet Battye (LD) - 1952
Labour didn’t win that council by election though, did they?
I expect the LibDems to be emphasising any result that went their way since 2017, and Labour to focus heavily on that 2017 result. What do you expect? I think the result in the last General Election is far more pertinent than anything that’s happened since, but that’s just my reading of it all.
dazh
Subscriber
Just posted on the Hebden Bridge facebook group by the lib dems. 2017 result was..
As nice as that looks on the surface, were only 2 candidates, 1 Lab, 1 Lib, and there were only about 500 votes cast - it must be a very small ward.
https://www.calderdale.gov.uk/council/democracy/electionresults/results.jsp?election=497
Edit: Total number of eligible voters 2000
But probably more important is how hard the Brexit Party push in Calderdale…
Whittaker could lose his seat (yes, I think to Labour) if the Brexit Party can hold onto any of this vote:
http://www.calderdale.gov.uk/council/democracy/electionresults/results.jsp?election=477
Got the same from my constituency from the lib dems
Only we can beat the snp.
Trouble is 2017 they came a poor 4th and lost their deposit
I did have a bit of a debate with them over it. What they have done is taken the voting figures from the euroelections then added to that the % swing in overall polls for the GE UK wide and added that to the euro figures then claiming they are in a close second place
Its another step away from their USP
When I used to vote lib dem they were know for honesty and truthfulness and principles. Now they have lost that
The LibDem vote has surged in 2019… of course they will use that to try and persuade people to (keep) voting for them, and try and resist everyone going back to their 2017 voting positions. And I don’t think they’ll be very successful with that, but you can argue that it’s an entirely “honest” thing to do… 2017 (and 2015 before it) were a disaster for them, they are going to emphasise the votes of 2019 and try and apply it to general election voting, not hark back to when their vote share was much lower, obviously.
FB Ad reports, prepare to be shocked by the amounts:
yes but its totally disingenuous to claim they are the only people able to beat the snp based on inapplicable information. Its obvious voting patterns in different elections produce different results and they have no chance at all of doing anything in my seat. Its a labour / snp marginal with the tories in a strong third place. Lib dems are 4th and have no history or traction in this seat. 4.7% of the vote last GE
inapplicable information
Some would argue that 2015&2017 GE results are “inapplicable information” as so much has changed in terms of votes and voting intention since 2017, and that extrapolating 2019 results is more uptodate. I’m with you though, I don’t think the local and euro results are very pertinent to FPTP voting for an MP in most seats, so am using 2015/2017 to inform how I will vote.
It is pretty clear that the LibDems are at best massaging the numbers which doesn't really fit with how Swanson would want the party to be seen. I have little trust in them and would not be surprised at all if they formed a coalition with the Tories given the chance.
Molgrips
Isn’t there now a portal where you can see what FB ads have been paid for and who’s seeing them?
Not really no.... unless they are official and declared as political and that say's nothing about WHERE the funding came from either.
I've seen people posting pictures in the last week but can't find them in the FB portal.
And in any case the ads themselves are just the clickbait... to get people to groups where they can be exposed to unpaid for propaganda.
would not be surprised at all if they formed a coalition with the Tories given the chance.
Because a coalition was a great electoral success last time. 🙂
I can see how one of the parties would be forced by circumstance to prop up one of the two big parties[1] but there is no way the LibDems or SNP would do any kind of deal to help one of the main parties get in power without a 2nd Ref and a different leader. Anything else would be political suicide. Even that would probably be political suicide.
[1] If you have the balance of power your inaction is as decisive as your action.
Isn’t there now a portal where you can see what FB ads have been paid for and who’s seeing them?
Would it really help? 99.99pc of political propaganda on FB comes from private individuals and unpaid activists. My cousin is a councillor and activist of a political party, she shares/posts something political and untrue about 3 times a day nobody could or should regulate that. (Although I dearly wish someone would. I block the source of literally everything political she shares and still a few times a day there's bollocks from another source. I'd just block her but... well... family.)
Actually the SNP have NOT said they will only do a deal if Corbyn goes - they are not that interested in english politics. their price for S&C is a second scots referendum and they will only work with labour not the tories
~I bet you this ( you can think up a nice comic forfeit for me if you want) that if the numbers stack up that tory plus lib dems are a majority the lib dems go for it and we get a tory government. Remember Swinson is proud of the coalition and is far closer to the tories politically that past lib dems leaders bar Clegg.
She is far closer to the Tories than previous LibDem leaders, for sure… well… what the Tories were anyway… the new Conservative Brexit Party are basically the Vote Leave team plus some poor sods hanging on to their coat tails to try and stay in politics. LibDems should be able to mop up a lot of votes from people who voted Tory in the past, but who understand that shift for what it is. Our only way out of our current hole is for the LibDems (and other opposition parties) to unseat enough Tory MPs where the Labour Party can not.
Christ this is hilarious. It's like a travelling circus. And people go on about labour having a personality cult.
STOP BREXIT.
BUILD A BRIGHTER FUTURE.
I presume that is the electric bus Swinson is campaigning from? Probably wise to feature her on it. Now imagine if Corbyn’s bus had that tagline…
Would it really help? 99.99pc of political propaganda on FB comes from private individuals and unpaid activists. My cousin is a councillor and activist of a political party, she shares/posts something political and untrue about 3 times a day nobody could or should regulate that. (Although I dearly wish someone would. I block the source of literally everything political she shares and still a few times a day there’s bollocks from another source. I’d just block her but… well… family.)
Fine line ... I'd say it depends on her source of material and where/how.
I can't answer this definitely by any means but for example if she is being fed stuff to post to link to political FB groups then I'd say yes it should be regulated, if she is being paid then even more. (How Dunno???)
There is something insidious about having content prepared and provided by for example a foreign power to be shared ... it's not free speech (in a narrower sense) if someone is paid or otherwise encouraged to share carefully crafted lies that are all part of a stage managed campaign of lies.
if the numbers stack up that tory plus lib dems are a majority the lib dems go for it and we get a tory government.
Ok, let's imagine the election is over and that is a numeric possibility.
If that is the case and *if* the only way to stop a Tory government is a Labour/SNP alliance and Labour will not agree to a second referendum then the SNP will say no and we will get a Tory government because of the SNP. If you have the balance of power your inaction is as decisive as your action.
You can always argue that voting for a small party lets in a big party
but what we do know after 2015 is that no small party will ever willingly take responsibility for government, circumstances will have to force them.
...and isn't it mental that a significant minority of voters will only vote for a party if they can be as sure as they possibly can their party won't ever have power even a small share of it.
[quote="tjagain"]A visit to Scotland today from Johnson
.................
I think Johnson will be whisked in and out and no member of the public will be allowed anywhere near him but I bet he still says something very patronising that can be seized by the nationalists.
[quote-"thegrauniad"]Johnson spent little over an hour touring the rural distillery in a strictly managed visit during which he had no contact with the public.
[quote="blondmuppet"]Absolutely, there is no case whatsoever [for a second referendum] because people were promised in 2014 that it would be a once in a generation event and I see no reason why we should go back on that pledge.
"Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats" ... FFS
Jo Swinson's Ego doesn't fit on the bus.
Probably wise to feature her on it.
They have another bus... 🙂
Jo Swinson’s Ego doesn’t fit on the bus.
Perhaps they’ve done their homework… and both Johnson and Corbyn are personally a turn off for many people who have voted for their parties in the past… so a focus on the leader (on the bus she will be campaigning from) might suit an electoral purpose beyond “ego”…
They have another bus…
Oh, nice work Daz, that’s pretty funny.
tjagain Member
yes but its totally disingenuous to claim they are the only people able to beat the snp based on inapplicable information. Its obvious voting patterns in different elections produce different results and they have no chance at all of doing anything in my seat. Its a labour / snp marginal with the tories in a strong third place. Lib dems are 4th and have no history or traction in this seat. 4.7% of the vote last GE
If we're talking about history then be fair, the LibDems came second to Labour in the 2001, 2005 and 2010 elections in what I assume to be your constituency (Edinburgh North and Leith). For some reason that wasn't the case in 2015, can't think why! Though if we're talking about historical trends then 2017 was a bit of an outlier for the Tories in that constituency, they did a lot better than they did in any other election that the Wikipedia page for it shows (back to '97). Is it still a viable Tory target now, given Brexit hostility and the lack of Ruth Davidson?
In most recent elections I've received information from most major parties who aren't defending my seat that tell me they're the only party who can topple the incumbent. There's always some numbers they can use to back up these claims. The difference between recent LibDem results in general elections and European elections muddy the water even more than normal.
A note to politicians - Approach Emma Barnett with caution. She'll skewer you.
https://twitter.com/laurencesleator/status/1192467215716638726?s=19
CrisL - I don't think there is much chance of the tories doing anything in leith. 3000 ish (IIRC) votes to gain against a background of falling polls.
If that is the case and *if* the only way to stop a Tory government is a Labour/SNP alliance and Labour will not agree to a second referendum then the SNP will say no and we will get a Tory government because of the SNP.
The numbers do not work like that because of sinn fein, dup etc. If labour and snp together can give a majority then lib dems / tory cannot
Labour will give them the seond ref anyway no prblem if thats the price for power
She’ll skewer you.
Who was being interviewed?
Straight from Tony Blair to Hitler there… time for her to step away from social media and internet forums perhaps.
The numbers do not work like
While crunching those numbers, please remember that you are the one who keeps talking about how minority governments can work… in which case it’s the largest party/group that gets to form the government, rather than a majority being required.
"one of the most extraordinary few minutes of radio I've ever heard" LOLZ this person clearly doesn't listen to the radio much.
Fair enough Kelvin. Even so given that the SNP and labour will always vote down a tory government the tories could not run a minority government if between snp and labour they have a majority. they would not be able to get a queens speech thru
So who would form a government? I really don’t know… but if there’s a majority against the Tories forming a government, but no majority for Labour forming a government… what happens? More quick elections? How many?
A two horse race. The lib dems only need a 45% swing to win.
https://twitter.com/angelasmithmp/status/1192364732357005312?s=20
So who would form a government?
Dunno but I hear Call-me-Dave is out campaigning. Is he confused, stuck in a time warp or is it signs of Stranger Things to come from the Tories?
If Snp and labour had a majority between them but couldn't agree even an S&C deal? Hypotheticals so only my best guess
largest party attempts to form a government first. If they get a queens speech past then its them ( assume that the tories) if not then the second largest party tries ( labour) SNP abstain, queens speech goes thru - its labour. the SNP would be very unlikely to vote down a labour government. If labour cannot get a QS thru even with SNP abstaining its back to the polls
Those facebook ad spending figures are interesting when you look at the government spend just before the election kicked off.
Again Dazh, a huge swing needed if looking at 2017… but that’s ignoring the 2019 votes. I’m inclined to use 2017 to look at what is most likely to happen… but anyone running a campaign for a LibDem candidate will be trying to use 2019 votes to convince people to go with them… to do otherwise would be bonkers. 2015&2017 has LibDems all but dead… 2019 votes have them beating Labour and the Conservatives all over the country (I can’t see that being repeated, but can see why LibDem activists need to cling to that and use it in their campaigning).
Today was the day the wanna-be chancellors clashed (if only in the media, rather than face to face) - and it has to be said - it’s Labour completely dominating the agenda now. The Conservatives are just offering a less joined up, less green, less clearly costed and funded version of what Labour are proposing. Anyone see it differently…?
a huge swing needed if looking at 2017
Comparisons with 2017 are the only ones that are valid as it's the last time the seat, possibly with the same candidates was contested. It's just stupid, dishonest and deliberately misleading to do otherwise. Anyway I'm convinced it will back fire. Voters don't like being taken for fools, and that seems to be the Lib Dem primary strategy in this election. I've been amazed at the tory campaign so far for it's chaos but at least they are just being disorganised, the lib dems seem to have deliberately chosen this approach. Swinson will be gone in a few weeks, either as a result of this terrible campaign, or losing her seat, or even both.
Comparisons with 2017 are the only ones that are valid
It’s the best measure in many seats, in my opinion, but it completely ignores the way support for the parties have changed since 2017… why would the LibDems use 2017 as their starting point for campaigning, when they have had a big upturn in support recently?
Why are the “ignore 2019” shouts so loud from some people, I wonder…
https://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/
dazh - superb job with the bus poster - I like that!
But I think you're in danger in becoming a bit obsessive about Swinson!!! I cannot abide magic grandpa but I dislike Boris more so I'm going down the route of voting labour to stop the tories (admittedly helped by fact we have a good local labour mp).
If you were in a Lib Dem/Tory marginal would you seriously not vote Lib Dem?