Forum menu
This is the sort of detail all the voters will be looking at before deciding whose policies are best for the economy. You can be sure of that.
If you did plot those numbers, you don’t get the Laffer Curve- you get a chart of tax and revenue. They are not the same thing
Sound plausible, but on the other hand we don't change the name of a supply/demand chart when we move from abstract to estimates so I'm sceptical and google hasn't helped me so linky please.
Where I started with this was pointing out that it’s always been a tool to promote tax cuts.
Well duh! If you're arguing for a tax raises you pretend tax revenue for that thing is 100pc in-elastic so you don't mentioning the graph. If you're arguing to cut a tax you pretend revenue is *really* elastic so you do mention the graph.
I got up before light and went out on my bike this morning, just got back. I nearly had a very serious off into some very unfriendly scenery because I was thinking about ****ing Laffer Curves when I should have been thinking about where I was putting my front wheel! I'm still shaking now. Time for a sweet tea and a sit down.
Back OT
Even the daftest leavers won't be voting for farage this time
(And I predict he won't be running in all seats anyway)
All this argument ignores the fact that economists have been universally useless at predicting anything. Remember economists in the 70s telling companies that they needed to be diversified conglomerates to survive? Or the disastrous reliance on supply side economics in the 80s? There are innumerable other examples.
JP
My employer is based in California. I don't think there would be any objection if I wanted to move nearer the head office (modulo getting a visa); I would win in some ways (amazing cycling, no more late night conference calls) and lose in others (terrifying health care if you lose your job) but there is surely a tax rate that could be set at which the choice would be clear.
I don't imagine I'm unique in this respect.
I think Farage is serious about standing in most constituencies and that will really damage the tories badly.
I am now thinking well over a hundred seats to the smaller parties and a hung parliament.
there is surely a tax rate that could be set at which the choice would be clear.
Is it really tax rate that matters most? I'd have thought it was more to do with standard of living and balance of income over expenditure.
Is it really tax rate that matters most? I’d have thought it was more to do with standard of living and balance of income over expenditure.
*looks out of window at grey skies and drizzle*
If that were the case I'd have moved to California years ago!
I think Farage is serious about standing in most constituencies and that will really damage the tories badly.
I don't think anything at the moment is that simple, even things that look vaguely plausible. In my constituency - High Peak - a grassroots, FB-based campaign in 2017 was partly responsible for kicking out the ghastly Tory MP and we now have an excellent, genuinely local constituency Labour MP. The Lib Dems got about 5% of the vote - the then candidate is now a Tory, go figure.
Fast forward to 2019 and there's a new Lib Dem candidate parachuted in from Europe where he's worked as a journalist and for large international companies. He seems to have no local links bar riding and walking local routes, he seems to think this is a genuine connection, I'd call it being a tourist but there you go.
What does it mean in a seat which swung 7% to Labour in 2017 with a majority of around 2,300? Well, maybe the Lib Dem candidate takes hardcore remain votes from Labour and lets the Tories in? Or maybe he attracts Tory remainer voters who would never vote Labour, but don't want to support Boris. Or maybe he does a bit of both and that nullifies his impact.
On top of that, the Tory candidate - parachuted in from Manchester last year - seems genuinely unpleasant and already hell-bent on negative campaigning against the sitting MP rather than putting forward any sort of positive policy arguments.
What would a Brexit Party candidate do? Potentially I guess, take some votes from Tory leavers, but also maybe Labour leavers who won't ever vote for a Boris Johnson Tory party?
And are people going to vote on the basis of their Brexit views? Or wider issues? Or local issues and personality?
The bottom line here is that FPP means that voting anything other than Labour simply means facilitating a Tory win. Hopefully people are bright enough to realise that - they were in 2017 - but equally leavers can presumably do the math and realise that voting for the Brexit Party undermines the Tory vote.
And that's just one constituency. Sure, it would nice if there were a formalised remain agreement and the Lib Dems stood down, but equally people can make that decision for themselves. Overall though, it's not a remotely straightforward situation and it'll vary in different areas.
I think Farage is serious about standing in most constituencies and that will really damage the tories badly.
It will be great news for the Tories if Farage manages to put forward some candidates, because Johnson can then claim that the Tory party is once again the party of the sensible, moderate, centre-right voter, compared to the loons from BXP Ltd.
(And I predict he won’t be running in all seats anyway)
I suspect you might be right.
If not, it's hard to work out what they're playing at. Would the BP would rather have remain than the current deal? Or does the Brexit Party think that their niche as a party and their EU jobs evaporate if Brexit happens and are actually secret remainers for that reason? Or has he set up so much party machinery that he feels he has to give all his potential MPs a run out?
Be very strange if the BP stop Brexit.
It just goes to show that in the modern world campaigning for the party you support isn't always the best option. For instance with so few party members it's often better to infiltrate a local party assn you want to scupper with a few mates and select a crap parliamentary candidate for them. Local party membership is so low entryism is really practical.
The amazing pro leave alliance in NI showing it's vision for this election
It will be great news for the Tories if Farage manages to put forward some candidates, because Johnson can then claim that the Tory party is once again the party of the sensible, moderate, centre-right voter
Problem is, the Tories rely on not just the ‘sensible, moderate, centre right, but also the ‘far right/xenophobic/easily lead by the meeja’ vote in combination to achieve a majority.
What does it mean in a seat which swung 7% to Labour in 2017 with a majority of around 2,300? Well, maybe the Lib Dem candidate takes hardcore remain votes from Labour and lets the Tories in? Or maybe he attracts Tory remainer voters who would never vote Labour, but don’t want to support Boris. Or maybe he does a bit of both and that nullifies his impact.
What would a Brexit Party candidate do? Potentially I guess, take some votes from Tory leavers, but also maybe Labour leavers who won’t ever vote for a Boris Johnson Tory party?
Both the main parties are going to haemorrhage voters to both the Libdems and BP in different and often unpredictable ratios.
And are people going to vote on the basis of their Brexit views? Or wider issues? Or local issues and personality?
Some local friends campaigned in the Local Elections over a highly significant local issue. On the door step literally all people wanted to talk about on the doorstep was Brexit. This is in *local* elections where a clear threat to to their day to day happiness looming and where the candidates have zero influence over Brexit.
So based on that I predict that Brexit will overwhelmingly dominate this election although the two main parties will try to avoid that. Which shows how polarised we've all become, before the Ref nobody really seemed to GAF about the EU.
Farage must be ready to follow through with his threat in order to have a bargaining position that will be taken seriously by the Tories. He’s got o go through the motions of splitting the brexit vote in order to persuade the Tories to talk to him. If Brexit happens without him being a key player in it, he’s finished. It’s in his personal interests to oppose ANY version of brexit that he has not been involved with, as continuing this farce is elongating his career and earnings.
Look, neither Farage or Johnson give a shit about Brexit, it is a tool to achieve their own ends… they are looking after number one… and no, not all politicians are the same, these two are apex level self serving pricks, don’t fall into the trap of thinking either is pure to any cause broader than “me”.
Farage must be ready to follow through with his threat in order to have a bargaining position that will be taken seriously by the Tories. He’s got o go through the motions of splitting the brexit vote in order to persuade the Tories to talk to him. If Brexit happens without him being a key player in it, he’s finished.
I quite like that theory, maybe that's it. I don't think a National party could countenance failing to contend every mainland seat. Smaller parties can do that but it's a bad look for a National Party so I guess no deal will be forthcoming.
If that's the plan maybe Farage will back down at the last minute, the alternative is the BP becomes a defacto anti-Brexit party. Nice to see Farage in a tight spot after he's put all the other parties in tight spots.
neither Farage or Johnson give a shit about Brexit
Boris yes, he's an out and out remainer. I read a Bio of him years ago and even then when he'd built a journalistic career out of trashing the EU the evidence was ovewhelming that he had massive affection for the EU. His Dad was an MEP and worked for the European Commission. The EU is Boris's hinterland.
Farage no. He is genuine, IMHO. (Which doesn't mean he wouldn't sacrifice something he really believed in for significant personal gain, how many of us wouldn't?)
EDIT: I'm not sure hinterland means what I think it does. I can't be arsed to think of a better word. Hopefully the context makes it clear. 😀
Got to agree with Kelvin. This is being fuelled by the man-frogs gargantuan ego. He just can’t stand not being the centre of attention.
It’s obvious he’s seeing himself as some kind of kingmaker in a hung parliament With him front and centre, grinning away on every news broadcast
I don’t care what his motivation is, I just hope he splits the Brexiteer bell end vote to deliver more seats to labour and deny a Tory majority
Boris yes, he’s an out and out remainer.
Yes, we know that long time ago but just want to see how good a trick he can come up with for entertainment sake.
Also I want to see in my lifetime a main political party(s) to be decimated from British politics or history. For the moment and as far as my crystal ball forecast is concerned they are just about on course for that to happen. Good fun and good laugh.
Farage no. He is genuine, IMHO.
He is genuine.
I support him by voting for the party he is in.
I don’t care what his motivation is, I just hope he splits the Brexiteer bell end vote to deliver more seats to labour and deny a Tory majority
Which ironically would more than likely keep him in his well paid MEP job and maintain his high profile whilst berating all and sundry with his betrayal of the referendum result and anti EU rantings .
A Tory majority and Brexit would see him out of a job and out of the limelight.
Farrage is in this for one thing (himself basically).
I suspect he'll go for MP in the best chance constituency he can find, but to achieve this he has to do a 'deal' with the Tories so they don't go up against him. Possibly if they realise people in the North might not vote Tory regardless, the Conservatives will maybe 'forge't to put a candidate up for that seat. And in return Farrage will throw the rest of his party under the bus (see what i did there...).
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1190740793033707520?s=09
Libdemmers running away with it.
(Random poll insignificance... But middle ground will almost certainly ebb away and I'm sticking with that prediction.)
You're totally deluded if you think that Farage is in this for anything other than himself.
As I said before, I know several people who worked for him and others who worked for UKIP MEPs when he was the leader. They have all reached the conclusion that he is not genuine at all. I should add that this doesn't mean they've changed their opinion on Brexit.
Vote for who you like, but don't be taken in by confidence tricks.
JP
But middle ground will almost certainly ebb away
The lib dems aren't in the middle ground on this one. They're revoke, with the Tories/BP at the other end with leave.
...but yeah, based on that poll currently not looking good for Revoke. 🙁
I think voters tend to fall back into their traditional voting patterns in GEs - which is why, linked to FPTP, it's so hard for LDs to push on and parties like Brexit to breakthrough at all.
I also think that issues other than Brexit will get more traction as the two big parties try to broaden the debate - not to diminish the issue as it will play through but the election will not be a single issue.
Well I think they're seen as a middle ground party but I take your point completely.
I was more postulating this election could be a regression for centrist policies.
When it comes to the crunch most remainers will vote labour in the hopes that they would offer a ref if they won.
Lib Dems just not competitive in enough seats to take the risk when Johnson so dominant in polls.
Personally I'd vote lib dem or green if i wasn't in a labour /Tory marginal
Farage has had a panick, when the realisation that he would have to completely change his language posture set in, so ironically he won't stand this time when he has the best chance of finally winning a seat.
Long-Bailey has outlined the Labour Brexit stance with credibility at last.
"That will be a decision that will be taken at the time by our party"
Awesome. That's a party of opposition, right there.
This looks fun - potential Cummings link to Russia:
https://news.sky.com/story/dominic-cummings-labour-says-pms-senior-adviser-faces-questions-over-his-past-in-russia-11852833
Yes - I know it is probably unprovable bollocks but its nice to see the 'no 10 source' even getting a little bit of heat.
Timing is opportune given the unforeseen delays in publishing the Russian interference report too...
I think voters tend to fall back into their traditional voting patterns in GEs
Really? Many on here seem to think the euro election result will be repeated. Despite the common view that the electorate are stupid, I think the opposite is true. They know the difference between a protest euro vote that will have very little difference to their lives and a general election. They also understand how FPTP works and so they vote accordingly. The libdems don't seem to understand this though, which is why their poll ratings are going down.
Awesome. That’s a party of opposition, right there.
The only party offering and able to provide a second referendum. If you're a remainer, the simple fact is that a labour govt is the only route to stopping brexit.
I thought I would have a look at the tactical voting bit on " best for britain".
" We have made no reccomendations for scotland"
You’re totally deluded if you think that Farage is in this for anything other than
Which candidate is not in it for
themselves? Help me choose
Really? Many on here seem to think the euro election result will be repeated.
The Lib Dem vote will be interesting. I cant work out if they will kill it or be wiped out...its 50/50 i feel
The only party offering and able to provide a second referendum. If you’re a remainer, the simple fact is that a labour govt is the only route to stopping brexit
That’s bollox & you know it.
The LD’s are offering an exit to Brexit - as you full well know!
Lib dems - I would be surprised if they end up with significantly more mps than they have now. I also predict Swinson will lose her seat
Its not bollox. Unless you are voting lib dem as a tactical anti tory vote a vote for lib dems makes a tory government more likely and there is zero chance they will be in any sort of power.
Remember the lib dems are far closer to the tories under Swinson and she will leap into bed with them in an instant to get close to power.
Here’s TJ again with his constant theme of “I’m not voting Labour, but everyone else who does the same is just helping the Tories”. I know it’s different in Scotland, where the political landscape is now entirely different… but ultimately we will not have a majority Labour government for decades, mainly because Scottish voters, just like TJ, vote for other parties instead of Labour. So it’s a Tory majority, or a hung parliament of some kind… because of Scottish voters. English and Welsh voters need to focus on denying Johnson a majority… not wanging on about the “other” parties opposing him. As do the parties… looks like LibDems, PC and Greens are moving aside in quite a few seats now to give others a clear run at avoiding a Conservative Brexit MP. We need more of that kind of thing, or 10 years of Johnson is on all of us.
Where have I said I am not voting labour?
I have a tricky choice in my constituency between the liar and useless idiot the SNP put up or the labour man who bears responsibility for the stat notice scandal
They are the only two candidates with a chance of winning my seat. Lib dems are nowhere and tories a poor third
Its completely true that in many constituency voting lib em makes a tory winner more likely
You should vote for the party most likely to keep the tories out.
Are you voting Labour?
Not yet decided. I have to follow the polls and make a decision. However from a brexit / labour government point of view it makes zero difference as the SNP will support a labour government and are against brexit / for a second ref.
This is an election where what happens in Scotland is actually going to ( as usual) make no difference to Westminster.
No difference? Now Scotland is lost, Labour will not get to govern alone, if at all.
Scotland has decided there are other political options for them, which is fine, but it effects us all. Now, as the other countries consider moving away from a straight Red/Blue general election (which is only kept going by the FPTP system) you seem keen to make the case that they shouldn’t join Scotland voters in doing so.
You should vote for the party most likely to keep the tories out.
I agree with this. But I’d also like the election of MPs that see the FPTP system for what it is, a stranglehold on British politics that means whoever controls the big two parties can squeeze out all others.
Others have pointed out how people vote very differently when a different voting system is presented to them (eg the Euro election earlier this year). Voting reform is seriously needed… but neither of the parties that benefit from the current system will rush to do anything about that. There are quite a few Labour MPs that do think we need change… and if we get 10 years of Johnson perhaps more will in future… but we probably need voters to push MPs from other parties, and no party, into the commons to create any real change. So the FPTP system needs gaming, not just to keep Conservative Brexit MPs out, but get MPs not aligned to either of the big two parties into parliament.
Scotland has decided there are other political options for them
Chicken and egg.
Labour have been absolutely rudderless, and led by a succession of cringeworthy, talentless nitwits for years up here.
Labour have no one to blame but themselves for this.
Oh, agreed… but if Scottish voters can dump Labour in our lifetime, for perfectly valid reasons, it’s not impossible (although very unlikely) that England and/or Wales end up doing so as well. And hearing voices from the North telling us we “have” to vote Labour grates… and I’m voting Labour.
No difference? Now Scotland is lost, Labour will not get to govern alone, if at all.
Scotland producing 50 snp mps or 50 labour mps makes no differnce as both ways its 50 anti brexit pro second ref mps and snp will only support a labour government never a tory one.