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I suspect that we will see more bump-taming ideas applied to gravel bikes.
Agreed. Really wish I’d bought a headshock Cannondale cross bike back in the day… something like that with no pretence at being race ready, will be coming from the bigger brands. Procalibre style rear cush as well. Gravel bikes will become better for mountain biking than your first mtb was. Mind you, if you’re old enough, that may already be true! The focus on them looking like touring/backpacking bikes will fade as well… they’ll start looking more like bikes designed to take out for shorter (faster) day rides… few people really use them like pack horses.
All the fuss about anything that uses chains and rear derailleurs… ignore that chains and derailleurs have won out for very good reasons… they’re going nowhere.
Not sure electronic gears have proven their worth at the top end yet… both the big two have fantastic electronic offerings, and riding a bike fitted with either of them is always a good experience… but going back to cable offerings never really feels like a big step down, does it? Not sure it’s really worth the development effort of trickling electronic down to cheaper bikes for anyone.
1x for road bikes. There is no good reason not to for the vast majority. Unless you are going up an down Alp D’uez on your ride then a much simpler gear arrangement would be fine.
Problem is front derailleurs cause almost no problems once set up they just keep working.
In no particular order:
Lighter e-bikes with less output. Lapierre led the game with this and now specialized have caught on I see that being the next big thing over the next few years. I can't see regenerative breaking and other tech like that going onto e-bikes purely from a weight perspective.
Improved bearings & sealing interfaces. It's really refreshing to see brands like raaw start to put properly sized bearings behind decent seals in the pivots.
Widespread longer chainstays for larger sizes. Pretty pleeease as a 6ft2 rider.
An increase in frames that you can officially long or short shock to change the travel. See the new transition scout or raaw Madonna.
Threaded BB's. Mainly because the bike industry are largely incapable of maintaining press fit tolerances.
Improved bike fits. Improved use of technology to really tailor in bike fits.
Threaded BB’s. Mainly because the bike industry are largely incapable of maintaining press fit tolerances.
I really don't get this. BMX have been press fit for at a guess 15 year or more. Is it just less pedaling forces or because it's steel frames? The crank get a battering so I would expect still some BB problems but they are rock solid in general.
Problem is front derailleurs cause almost no problems once set up they just keep working
Until a teeny bit of grit gets stuck in it then it doesn't.
2nd hand bikes will be the next big thing
We won’t see it on here but there is definitely a move to people wanting cheap bikes ie recycled. I was just getting started on a project with my lbs when the s**t hit the fan. The shop in question has been swamped with requests for cheap 2nd hand bikes and a few that we were going to renovate have been sold.
Need to look at the bigger picture👋😎✊🏻
Problem is front derailleurs cause almost no problems once set up they just keep working.
And they have the benefit of improving chainline at the extremes.
My MTB was very noisy in bottom gear until I shifted the chainline with 4mm spacers. My brand new GRX 810 groupset is similarly noisy in bottom gear. Not the end of the world, but I wouldn't want to spin up an Alp on my road bike listening to that. Moving to 12 speed (and more) is only going to make this worse as the narrower spacing forces chainline further out to avoid catching on the next sprocket in higher gears.
I think more customisation from the factory - like Bird and Orbea have done - is likely.
It would be really exciting to see more custom geometry and sizing.
Marino has made an increasing impact, it would be great to see Pole also offer this. The ability to specify a beefier tube-set say.
Not sure it’s really worth the development effort of trickling electronic down to cheaper bikes for anyone.
Actually, I would have thought that the lower end of the market would really go for it, at the right price. To someone just getting into cycling, gears that don't need adjusting and maintaining could be really appealing. And with e-bikes, you're already lugging a battery around so it doesn't even have to be another thing to charge. I'm a bit surprised that the price hasn't dropped more already.
Personally, I have no interest in them, but that's an odd idea about enjoying cycling as a purely human-powered endeavour, and also enjoying the impressively intricate engineering in modern shifters.
Agreed. Modern bikes are a bit like Clock punk. Rather not go electronic. Hydraulic shifting would be good.
Problem is front derailleurs cause almost no problems once set up they just keep working.
Dropped chains on both road (well cx) and mtb is the thing that finally convinced me 1x was the way to go, and I'm a late adopter of most things. 1x range is now adequate enough there's no going back, this is widely adopted already, isn't it future trends we are predicting?
Metrics is another growth area I think, monitor tyre pressure, bump absorption, g force, crank force, steering input etc. This is already been done at high level we'll see it trickle down more.
Personally, I have no interest in them, but that’s an odd idea about enjoying cycling as a purely human-powered endeavour, and also enjoying the impressively intricate engineering in modern shifters.
Oddly I'm the complete opposite. hate ebikes for offroad/leisure, but I'd welcome electric shifting, along with anything that simplifies or integrates the operation of seatpost and suspension adjustments. Just pedal and ride (and no maintainence/adjustment/faffing) would be the ideal for me.
I really don’t get this. BMX have been press fit for at a guess 15 year or more. Is it just less pedaling forces or because it’s steel frames? The crank get a battering so I would expect still some BB problems but they are rock solid in general.
It's less of an issue due to much less pedalling in BMX. It's also easier in theory to get the tolerances right on a steel or alloy frame than a carbon one.
Complaints about press fit creaking or going through bearings rapidly is almost always due to alignment issues. As well as lateral misalignment between the cups, they can also be undersized and compress the bearings causing rapid wear as well. It's part of the reason why Shimano BB cups are polymer as that can accommodate some misalignment by deforming when being pressed it, but it is still not ideal.
hate ebikes for offroad/leisure
That's bizarre. I see no appeal in fatbikes, gravel or time trial bikes, but hate them? eh, naw.
Integrated storage as in the Specialized Swat Box?
I personally can't see past lighter ebikes with smaller batteries becoming the norm.
I'll try again for simplified suspension setup
Dealer takes some data from customer and hand over a bike with the suspension set up correctly. It might be that your given a box you take on a couple of rides. Data from the box is used to finish the process.
I bet loads of high end bikes are trundling round trail centres with basic set up errors. Quite possibly mine as well
Shimano’s argument for Microspline is that you can’t make a cheap cassette for an XD driver and you can’t make a 10 tooth sprocket fit onto a normal freehub.
I think we need a new discipline or a change of existing one to drive development. Trail centre grand-prix's! Blur the lines of xc and enduro. queue a range of lighter trail bikes that can do 20 laps of cannock and still smash a black run.
Dealer takes some data from customer and hand over a bike with the suspension set up correctly. It might be that your given a box you take on a couple of rides. Data from the box is used to finish the process.
Bike dealerships with good service depts would love OEMs for that, and more integrated electronics similar to Shimano and Bosch line-in apps. Like cars that have engines that you have no hope of working on yourself.
I’d welcome electric shifting, along with anything that simplifies or integrates the operation of seatpost and suspension adjustments. Just pedal and ride (and no maintainence/adjustment/faffing) would be the ideal for me.
That's the marketeer's dream but the reality of more complex systems / integration won't often be like that, your bike will just be in and out of the dealership more often (or you fit new parts that cost more, etc).
Zen and the Art of Bicycle Maintenance + Ownership.
I think we need a new discipline or a change of existing one to drive development. Trail centre grand-prix’s! Blur the lines of xc and enduro. queue a range of lighter trail bikes that can do 20 laps of cannock and still smash a black run.
Gravelcross.
Like a pentathlon/heptathlon, multiple events with points for each. But with gravel bikes.
First event, the bikepacking load up. First to strap the 14 bags and 12 water bottles needed for bikepacking to a gravel bike, clip in and ride 2 metres.
Then, hurdles. 10 gates and stiles, 20m apart, first to be able to hurdle them and their (fully loaded) bike to the finish line
Then the unpack, bivvy and cook an army ration dehydrated meal race.
I'm sure there's more events in there somewhere...
2nd hand bikes will be the next big thing
This is so true. The lower-end is where all the interest is right now. Current situations would have customers seeing anything that needs regular dealer attention as a negative - no idea how long we'll be in this situation for but many who are developing self-sufficiency habits at the moment will continue that way. It'll be influential and ties in with general anti-consumption and low impact ideas.
Could leasing be a thing?
I can't see how they'd do the 'reasonable wear and tear' when returning your 3 year old santa cruz hekler, with scratches all over the frame, and dented rims.
Actually, I would have thought that the lower end of the market would really go for it, at the right price. To someone just getting into cycling, gears that don’t need adjusting and maintaining could be really appealing. And with e-bikes, you’re already lugging a battery around so it doesn’t even have to be another thing to charge. I’m a bit surprised that the price hasn’t dropped more already.
There was a thread yesterday where someones AXS had crashed and the firmware wouldn't update.
It's been 10 years since I was out on a ride and someone actually snapped a gear cable. Seems like almost every ride now someone has some niggling issue with Di2/e-tap ranging from "it's a bit noisy I just need to check the manual when I get back about how to re-index it" to "no idea, I'm stuck in singlespeed mode".
Also, Di2 currently has a ~£100 premium just for the mech. I've been riding off road for two decades and baulk at £40 rear mechs, I can't see £140 mech's ever becoming mainstream.
Could leasing be a thing?
I can’t see how they’d do the ‘reasonable wear and tear’ when returning your 3 year old santa cruz hekler, with scratches all over the frame, and dented rims.
Is Bikes****y still a thing?
I'm sure it could work: "Shop" buys bike at trade price, leases it to you for 2 years and covers the trade price so making an absolute loss is unlikely. Chuck's a new set of bearings in it, chain and cassette etc and sells it on again. Probably recoups half the new price as profit?
I tend to buy bikes then run them for a long time and sell them cheaply (or buy 2nd hand and try to minimise my losses), but there's also a market of people who'll buy an S-works for ~£8500 and sell it in 12 months to fund a new one in this years colors and drive chain.
I tend to buy bikes then run them for a long time and sell them cheaply (or buy 2nd hand and try to minimise my losses), but there’s also a market of people who’ll buy an S-works for ~£8500 and sell it in 12 months to fund a new one in this years colors and drive chain.
I could see a massive market for this, get a top of the range AXS megatower with carbon everything, for £1000 down and £200 a month for 2 years, then at the end, give it back and get a brand new one.
Incoming: chainrings with a freehub that prevent pedal kickback.
Already starting to appear...
I could see a massive market for this, get a top of the range AXS megatower with carbon everything, for £1000 down and £200 a month for 2 years, then at the end, give it back and get a brand new one
Same as how many people buy cars.
Maybe not immediately, but I reckon wheel sizes will come full circle. Give it 5 years:
"The New 559 wheel size is stronger, stiffer, lighter and more manoeuvrable than 29er making for a more engaging, exciting ride. Better spoke triangulation and reduced mass makes improves the mobility if the ride, giving more pop and less drop".
All hail the return of 26"!!!
I should work in marketing...
I’m sure it could work: “Shop” buys bike at trade price, leases it to you for 2 years and covers the trade price so making an absolute loss is unlikely. Chuck’s a new set of bearings in it, chain and cassette etc and sells it on again. Probably recoups half the new price as profit?
could work for sure, but I do wonder about the costs/viability of it.
, but the level of depreciation and damage means what is the value of the bike after 2-3 years? I dont see it being hugely profitable.
"new set of bearings in it, chain and cassette etc" is actually:
New drivetrain
Suspension service icl. new bearings
Wheel trueing
Brake bleed + new pads
New contact points if they are a bit ratty
New tyres if they look worn - half gone maybe?
Thats say 2-300 pounds at least in parts even at dealer cost* for a fox and eagle'd Santa Cruz, plus multiple hours of labour, to sell a £1500-£2000 bike. Plus they need to store, display and advertise all of these bikes.
*PLus they are potentially losing the revenue of the private second hand buyer coming in to buy parts and servicing at RRP.
The customer of the second hand bike needs to be considered - they are getting a fully assembled and serviced, but 2 year out of date high end bike, at likeley a price higher than if they did it themselves. And going against everything they've read on Pinkbike about the new version being faster and stiffer.
Cheap ebikes. They seem for the sum of the cost of the parts to be very expensive but maybe they break more often so they need more of an overhead.
The customer of the second hand bike needs to be considered – they are getting a fully assembled and serviced, but 2 year out of date high end bike, at likeley a price higher than if they did it themselves. And going against everything they’ve read on Pinkbike about the new version being faster and stiffer.
True, but most models are on a ~4 year cycle, so most of the time it will still be the current model, but half-ish price.
Mostly 2nd hand bikes are ~ 50% of the new value. I don't think shops would struggle to sell them on for a little more given they would be in generally better condition than a private sale.
It depends a little on whether you view it as taking sales away from lower end bikes or not. Both the 1st and 2nd owner are probably in the market for a ~£2.5k bike and actually buying a £5k bike, just one is more comfortable with the finance model and the other still like to pay with their own cash. But do they then sell more bikes because you bring in more people because they're getting much better bikes for £2.5k.
There's also a very good argument that once you get through the marketing bull**** bikes have't really changed in 10+ years.
Medium specialized Enduro SL (2010ish) had 446mm reach, 66deg head angle, etc.
Medium Specialized Stumpjumper 2020, has 435mm reach, 65.5deg head angle
Incoming: chainrings with a freehub that prevent pedal kickback.
Already starting to appear…
I saw those, seems arse about face, effectively a damper that absorbs the high frequency stuff and transmits the low frequency pedaling. Would something like a free coasting freehub not work better, rather than rotating on one direction like a pawl freehub they only work when torque is applied in one direction, so you could pedal, but if the back wheel was spun backwards it wouldn't engage? Only problem would be that any drag would tend to throw the chain off the cassette unless you had really stiff derailleur springs to maintain tension.
Suppose it could work with some combination of high/forward pivot, low chainline gearbox, so pedaling pulls the suspension down but you wouldn't get the kickback.
“Shop” buys bike at trade price, leases it to you for 2 years and covers the trade price so making an absolute loss is unlikely. Chuck’s a new set of bearings in it, chain and cassette etc and sells it on again. Probably recoups half the new price as profit?
Having to provide a warranty on a half knackered bike would make it not worthwhile. If the bearings, chain, and cassette are worn out, then the dropper post, forks, shock, brakes, etc will probably need work or else the customer will be back every week demanding free repairs.
I can see leasing on a road bike by not a mountain bike. A mountain bike operates in a harsh enviroment. As above just to much can wear out
A posh carbon road bike with a say drive train swap really could be good for 3 more years