Just watching it over dinner and they are discussing the implications of the UK leaving the EU. Is it really a possibility? I just assumed it was all belly-rumbling by a few malcontents.
No
another no
Not a chance. Might not embrace fully, but leaving would be unthinkable.
I am less sure than I used to be. Europe hasn't been a sinking ship before.
referendum in 2014 apparently as cast iron dave tries to save the 2015 GE from the ukip tory vote sinkhole
recent opinion poll said 56% in favour of leaving
personally think it would be massively detremental to the country and will never happen
I blame Thatcher...
Not even the muppets in charge at the moment could be THAT stupid.
Even less likely than Scotland leaving the UK.
I hope.
Media is rubbish at representing the benefits
e.g. BSE crisis EU forced other EU countries to buy our beef once it was safe. Rest of the world band all imports. Almost nothing in the media
56 % will happily say leave in an opinion pole. Faced with the reality of going it alone I think people might not actually vote to leave
Lib dems wont let him IMHO
CMD is probably little anti on Euro but he also realises it that it would be [ in the short to medium term] a total economic FUBAR to do so.
I think he will not want to leave so probably wont let us vote
He may make a big thing re prisoners voting to help pave the way perhaps - perhaps use the financial settlements we have to pay prisoners to demonise Europe rather than admit we are breaking the law.
I doubt t though as the coalition would end
[quote=ampthill ]
56 % will happily say leave in an opinion pole.
This surprises me
My job would go
No one will belong to the EU in the future for the very reason it cannot continue to exist in its current form. The question is what will the new Europe be? As an economist, I do not believe that Europe (excuse the loose term here) satisfies the requirements for a single currency area. So as a structure it "should be" doomed as the people of S Europe know only too well. But the political capital that has been invested in is doomed project is so high that Europe's poltiticians feel compelled to "make it work" (sic). So they will ultimately push forward with greater integration of regulation, fiscal and monetary policy etc. At some point this will require the creditor nations in the North to take a massive hit. If they fail to do this, the European project will fail under the weight of social unrest as austerity driven unemployment continues to rise. If and when the creditors take the hit, this will require a fundamental rewriting of the democratic principles upon which Euope is currently based. This will be the straw that breaks the back of UK support and we will withdraw from that version of Europe.
Of course, there is a different scenario. Germany leaves the Euro and a more sustainable future path will begin in which the UK could continue to play a central and important role. But I would expect PIGS (poor in-joke, sorry) to fly across Brussels first.
Apart from the economics spiritually and politically you are in favour of the EU right and that is just a neutral unbiased economic opinion
I groaned at the PIGS joke ...Chapeau
I have e-mailed Binners for you 😉
Evening JY, that was quicker that I thought. Yes the PIGS joke was partly for you :wink:. Not a bad effort for 23:20!!
There is tremendous merit in the EU as a free-trade area and as a political body whose common interest leads away from the horrors of war on the continent. (But even the free-trade argument comes with some costs albeit less than the benefits as you know from your own economic studies). But there are various criteria that are required for any region to successfully adapt to a single currency regime. Europe does not satisfy them and for that reason is a doomed model. Hence (in part) the stand off between massive social unrest in the periphery and the required financial hit to creditor nations at the core.
Of course, even though the criteria for a single currency area are clear in textbooks, the analysis required to decide whether Europe fulfills them will always be biased, mine included!!! 😉
Whatever the biases involved, one common unbiased answer is that the EU will have to be massively restructured one way or another.
Edit: my guess (in time) three constituents - a core (with one currency) and periphery B (with another), both with relatively high integration in themselves and moderate with each other, and periphery C (including UK) that will maintain flexible exchange rates, independent Central Banks etc but close trade and political ties. Its a BBC (among others) fallacy that Europe will be better off without the UK and the other periphery C states. They know that as well as CMD does!